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DOE OSTI2019

Measurement of the Crab Nebula Spectrum Past 100 TeV with HAWC

In this study, we present TeV gamma-ray observations of the Crab Nebula, the standard reference source in ground-based gamma-ray astronomy, using data from the High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) Gamma-Ray Observatory. In this analysis we use two independent energy estimation methods that utilize extensive air shower variables such as the core position, shower angle, and shower lateral energy distribution. In contrast, the previously published HAWC energy spectrum roughly estimated the shower energy with only the number of photomultipliers triggered. This new methodology yields a much-improved energy resolution over the previous analysis and extends HAWC's ability to accurately measure gamma-ray energies well beyond 100 TeV. The energy spectrum of the Crab Nebula is well fit to a log-parabola shape $\left(\tfrac{{dN}}{{dE}}={\phi }_{0}{\left(E/7\mathrm{TeV}\right)}^{-\alpha -\beta \mathrm{ln}\left(E/7\mathrm{TeV}\right)}\right)$ with emission up to at least 100 TeV. For the first estimator, a ground parameter that utilizes fits to the lateral distribution function to measure the charge density 40 m from the shower axis, the best-fit values are ${\phi }_{o}=(2.35\pm {0.04}_{-0.21}^{+0.20})\times {10}^{-13}$ (TeV cm 2 s) -1 , $\alpha =2.79\pm {0.02}_{-0.03}^{+0.01}$, and $\beta =0.10\pm {0.01}_{-0.03}^{+0.01}$. For the second estimator, a neural network that uses the charge distribution in annuli around the core and other variables, these values are ${\phi }_{o}=(2.31\pm {0.02}_{-0.17}^{+0.32})\times {10}^{-13}$ (TeV cm 2 s) -1 , $\alpha =2.73\pm {0.02}_{-0.02}^{+0.03}$, and β = 0.06 ± 0.01 ± 0.02. The first set of uncertainties is statistical; the second set is systematic. Both methods yield compatible results. Finally, these measurements are the highest-energy observation of a gamma-ray source to date.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1977

Further observations on maximum likelihood estimates of stability and control characteristics obtained from flight data

A maximum likelihood estimation method for flight test data is described. Flight results based on 3000 maneuvers from 30 aircraft on the effect of resolution and sampling rate on the estimates, on understanding the discrepancies previously observed in the magnitude of the Cramer-Rao bounds, on the scale effects on the derivative estimates obtained from dynamic aircraft flight maneuvers, and on the analysis of lateral-directional maneuvers obtained in turbulence, are presented.

Iliff, K. W.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Statistical analysis of direct-strike lightning data (1980 to 1982)

Electromagnetic measurements are being made during direct lightning strikes by NASA Langley Center using a specially instrumented F-106B aircraft. The research is to aid refinement, characterization, and understanding of the lightning-aircraft interaction process and the lightning hazards to aircraft. Statistical methods are applied to characterize some aspects of the lightning data obtained from 176 strikes to the aircraft. Specific attention is given to the problem of estimating the upper extreme quantiles of the distributions of peak-to-peak values for currents and rates of change in the magnetic and flux densities. A formal treatment via a general location-scale family of models allows the estimation method to be adapted to the realized shapes the distributions. The shapes are examined by probability plotting methods.

Lee, L. D.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Sensitivity Analysis of the Integrated Medical Model for ISS Programs

Sensitivity analysis estimates the relative contribution of the uncertainty in input values to the uncertainty of model outputs. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and Standardized Rank Regression Coefficient (SRRC) are methods of conducting sensitivity analysis on nonlinear simulation models like the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity using partial correlation of the ranks of the generated input values to each generated output value. The partial part is so named because adjustments are made for the linear effects of all the other input values in the calculation of correlation between a particular input and each output. In SRRC, standardized regression-based coefficients measure the sensitivity of each input, adjusted for all the other inputs, on each output. Because the relative ranking of each of the inputs and outputs is used, as opposed to the values themselves, both methods accommodate the nonlinear relationship of the underlying model. As part of the IMM v4.0 validation study, simulations are available that predict 33 person-missions on ISS and 111 person-missions on STS. These simulated data predictions feed the sensitivity analysis procedures. The inputs to the sensitivity procedures include the number occurrences of each of the one hundred IMM medical conditions generated over the simulations and the associated IMM outputs: total quality time lost (QTL), number of evacuations (EVAC), and number of loss of crew lives (LOCL). The IMM team will report the results of using PRCC and SRRC on IMM v4.0 predictions of the ISS and STS missions created as part of the external validation study. Tornado plots will assist in the visualization of the condition-related input sensitivities to each of the main outcomes. The outcomes of this sensitivity analysis will drive review focus by identifying conditions where changes in uncertainty could drive changes in overall model output uncertainty. These efforts are an integral part of the overall verification, validation, and credibility review of IMM v4.0.

medical equipment↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sensitivity Analysis of the Human Research Program’s Impact 1.0 Model

Sensitivity analysis estimates the relative contribution of the uncertainty in input values to the uncertainty of model outputs. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and Leave One Out (LOO) are methods of conducting sensitivity analysis on non-linear simulation models like the IMPACT Model. The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity using partial correlation of the ranks of the generated input values to each generated output value. The “partial” part is due to the adjustments made for the linear effects of all the other input values in the calculation of correlation between a particular input and each output. LOO removes a medical condition from test suite and calculates the change in the outcome. This is used to identify the influence of the condition input in the model The inputs to the sensitivity procedures include the number of occurrences of each of the one hundred plus IMPACT medical conditions generated over the simulations, and the IMPACT outputs from the MEDPRAT mathematical model. The outputs total task time lost (TTL), number of return to definitive care (RTDC), and number of loss of crew lives (LOCL). The IMPACT team will report the results of using PRCC and LOO on IMPACT 1.0. Tornado plots will assist in the visualization of the condition-related input sensitivities to each of the main outcomes. The outcomes of this sensitivity analysis will drive review focus by identifying conditions where changes in uncertainty, and input values could drive changes in overall model output uncertainty. These efforts are an integral part of the overall verification, validation, and credibility review of IMPACT 1.0.

Sensitivity Anaylsis↗

NASA NTRS2019

Implementation Recommendations and Usage Boundaries for the Two-Dimensional Probability of Collision Calculation

The two-dimensional (2D) probability of collision (𝑃𝑐) estimation method relies on several assumptions that must be satisfied for accurate results. Monte Carlo analysis of ~44,000 conjunctions indicates that 2D-𝑃(sub 𝑐) pro-vides accurate estimates for most typical conjunctions, but occasionally underestimates 𝑃(sub 𝑐) significantly, indicating an assumption violation. A test to detect large-amplitude underestimation inaccuracies can be based on how much “offset-from-TCA” 2D-𝑃(sub 𝑐) values vary during a well-defined time interval bracketing closest approach. The test successfully detects all large-amplitude 2D-𝑃(sub 𝑐) underestimations found to date, but with a high false-alarm rate. The analysis also provides implementation recommendations and usage boundaries for the 2D-𝑃(sub 𝑐) method.

Hall, Doyle T.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Implementation Recommendations and Usage Boundaries for the Two-Dimensional Probability of Collision Calculation

Hall, Doyle T.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Efficient Methods for Aircraft Frequency Response Estimation at NASA

Methods developed at NASA for efficiently estimating multiple-input multiple-output frequency responses of various aircraft control loops are discussed. These methods use simultaneous orthogonal multisine excitations and ratios of input-output Fourier transform data that can be computed in real time. An example is given to demonstrate some of the methods using flight test data for the X-56A airplane.

Frequency responses↗

DOE OSTI2018

Evolution, Current State of the Art, and Interpretation of Aircraft-Based Methane Emission Quantification at the Natural Gas Basin-Level

Accurately quantifying methane (CH4) emissions from the oil and gas (O&G) industry is challenging given the existence of many potential emission sources, differences in industry practices and regulations, and often incomplete or out-of-date activity data. It is thus important to regularly assess emission inventories and support improvements by deriving independent estimates using state-of-the-science approaches. Recent research has provided CH4 emission estimates from the O&G supply chains based on different measurement techniques at multiple spatio-temporal scales. Natural gas basin-scale aircraft-based atmospheric measurements indicate greater CH4 emissions than emission inventories based on up-scaling of component-/facility-level emission measurements from a relatively small sample size. Here we present results from a coordinated field study that compares concurrent CH4 emission measurements using different techniques and scales to better understand the strengths and weaknesses of each approach, with a focus on the aircraft-based estimation method. We describe the importance of (i) decades of measurement technology development, (ii) experience in designing measurement sampling strategies and aligning system boundaries, and (Hi) properly interpreting CH4 emission estimates for successfully reconciling aircraft-based measurements with emission inventories and for identifying CH4 emission mitigation potential. We illustrate that aircraft-based top-down estimates represent a brief snapshot of total basin-level CH4 emissions. Thus, a high spatio-temporally resolved bottom-up emission inventory is needed to identify key CH4 sources (including episodic sources) at the process level. While this paper provides a brief overview of the overall study design and findings, its focus is on the implementation of the aircraft measurements and its interpretation and results. A separate paper describes in more detail the overall organizational structure of the study as well as the study implications from an industry perspective.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

NASA NTRS2004

Resolving the Issues with Flywheel Position Sensors

For the past few years, the Advanced Electrical Systems Branch here at NASA Glenn has been pursuing research in the area of flywheels. The purpose of these pursuits has been t o explore the potential for flywheels to replace current battery-powered systems in space. So far it has been learned that flywheels offer large momentum storage capacity, comparatively small volume, high durability, and near- complete discharge capabilities, all of which are advancements over the existing nickel hydrogen and nickel cadmium batteries. Another significant advantage of flywheels is the potential they offer for combining the function of attitude control with energy storage. During the summer of 2004, I worked with Dr. Barbara Kenny in the Advanced Electrical Systems Branch, supporting the work she is doing by analyzing and testing some new components for the new Generation-2 flywheel. To monitor the speed and angular position of the flywheel rotor, a once-around (OAR) signal along with a sensorless algorithm is used. The OAR signal is used for the magnetic bearings that keep the flywheel suspended for frictionless operation. The sensorless algorithm is used for the flywheel motor/generator control. The OAR is generated from position sensors that monitor a circular plate. The plate has a cut down the middle such that one half of the circle is on a slightly lower level than the other. Every half-turn, or 180, the sensors detect the "cut" on the plate, and trigger the OAR, telling the computer that the rotor has made half a revolution. This, however, doesn't provide needed detailed information about the angular position of the rotor, since it only provides a signal alert every half- revolution. This is enough information for the magnetic bearing control but is insufficient for the motor/generator control. A new resolver was designed such that it would give continuous angle information rather than the 180 degree information of the OAR. The new resolver has two separate observable pieces: a flat middle section to monitor vertical motion, and an angled section around the circumference, which, when observed from above, produces a sine-wave displacement through the entire 360" revolution. My first job when I arrived this summer was to calibrate the sensors that would be mounted on the inside of the flywheel casing to monitor the position (angular and vertical) of the shaft. After calibration, I used the sensors to evaluate voltage outputs created by position differences between two pairs of sensors on the angled portion of the resolver for eight different angular positions, moving the resolver vertically and laterally through its entire potential range of motion. The results of these tests will be used to determine the rotor angular (and axial) position from the sensor readings once the new flywheel unit is assembled. The sensorless algorighm mentioned above consists of two operations: the signal injection method and the back electro-motive force (EMF). The signal injection is meant to work at low speeds, while the back EMF algorithm is meant to work at higher speeds. Both work together to determine the correct estimate of rotor position and speed based on the measured motor/generator current. It was determined that we wanted to know exactly how accurate our estimation methods were, and so a resolver (a commercially available mechanical sensor mounted to the motor/generator shaft to measure rotor position and speed) and a "Resolver to Digital" (R2D) circuit board was purchased to make the comparison to the existing estimation. My work related to the R2D board has included the following: creating two connector cables (one to power the circuit and one to get readable output off the board), writing Simulink code to process the board's output, and building a dSpace panel to control and monitor the circuit. The next step in the process will be to perform tests to compare the estimated rotor position and speed from the sensorless algorithm to the actual rotor and speed from the resolver signal.

Fehrmann, Elizabeth A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Neural networks for parameter estimation in intractable models

The goal is to use deep learning models to estimate parameters in statistical models when standard likelihood estimation methods are computationally infeasible. For instance, inference for max-stable processes is exceptionally challenging even with small datasets, but simulation is straightforward. Data from model simulations are used to train deep neural networks and learn statistical parameters from max-stable models. The proposed neural network-based method provides a competitive alternative to current approaches, as demonstrated by considerable accuracy and computational time improvements. Finally, it serves as a proof of concept for deep learning in statistical parameter estimation and can be extended to other estimation problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydrologic applicability of satellite-based precipitation estimates for irrigation water management in the data-scarce region

Reliable precipitation estimates are crucial for planning and managing water resources, monitoring hydrologic extremes, and fulfilling irrigation water requirements. Accurate precipitation estimates are particularly challenging in complex mountain terrains, where monitoring gauges are often sparsely distributed due to their remote locations, and high installation and long-term operation costs. Recent advances in satellite-based precipitation estimates offer promising opportunities to improve our understanding of hydrologic processes and their applications for irrigation water management. Several datasets are available varying considerably in terms of their data sources, quality control methods, estimation procedure, and spatiotemporal resolutions. Choosing the most suitable dataset for a particular application is a complex task. In this study, we (1) evaluate the performance of six satellite-based precipitation estimates (SPEs): i) CHIRPS v2.0, ii) CMORPH v1.0, iii) ERA5, iv) IMERG v6, v) MSWEP v2.8, and vi) PERSIANN-CDR against the gauge precipitation using continuous statistical and categorical indices, (2) integrate SPEs with a calibrated semi-distributed hydrologic model to predict streamflow, and (3) demonstrate practical implications of improved streamflow prediction for irrigation water management in the central Himalayan region, Nepal. Our results illustrate that satellite-based precipitation estimates have competitive performance in capturing a wide range of rainfall characteristics, with demonstrated variability across river basins and time scales. Further, there are no significant discrepancies observed in satellite-based precipitation estimates for estimating irrigation water requirements for the three major crops (maize, wheat, and paddy) during the cropping period across the selected river basins, showing a greater promise for irrigation water management planning and decision making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Comparison of Local Recurrence Risk Estimates After Breast-Conserving Surgery for DCIS: DCIS Nomogram Versus Refined Oncotype DX Breast DCIS Score

Background: A ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) Nomogram integrating 10 clinicopathologic/treatment factors and a Refined DCIS Score (RDS) that incorporates a genomic assay and three clinicopathologic factors (Oncotype DX DCIS Score) are available to estimate DCIS 10-year local recurrence risk (LRR). This study compared these estimates. Methods: Patients 50 years of age or older with DCIS size 2.5 cm or smaller and a genomic assay available were identified. An RDS within 1–2% of the range of Nomogram LRR estimates obtained by assuming use and non-use of endocrine therapy (Nomogram ± ET) was defined as concordant. Assuming a 10-year risk threshold of 10% for recommending radiation, Nomogram ± ET and RDS estimates were compared, and threshold concordance was determined. Results: For 54 (92%) of 59 patients, the RDS and Nomogram ± ET LRR estimates were concordant. For the remaining 5 (8%) of the 59 patients, the RDS LRR estimates were lower than the Nomogram + ET estimates, with an absolute difference of 3–8%, and thus were discordant. For these five patients, the RDS estimates of 10-year LRR were lower than 10% (range 5–8%) and the Nomogram + ET estimates were 10% or higher (range 11–14%). These five patients with both discordant and threshold-discordant estimates all had close margins (≤ 2 mm). Conclusions: Among 92% of women 50 years of age or older with DCIS size 2.5 cm or smaller, free-of-charge online Nomogram 10-year LRR estimates were concordant with those obtained using the commercially available RDS (> $4600). Among the 8% with discordant risk estimates, the RDS appeared to underestimate the LRR and may lead to inappropriate omission of radiotherapy. Unless other data show a clinically significant advantage of the RDS (Oncotype DX DCIS Score), the study data suggest that for women 50 years of age or older with DCIS size 2.5 cm or smaller, its use is not warranted.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

NASA NTRS1974

Statistical interpretation of pollution data from satellites

The NIMBUS-G environmental monitoring satellite has an instrument (a gas correlation spectrometer) onboard for measuring the mass of a given pollutant within a gas volume. The present paper treats the problem: How can this type measurement be used to estimate the distribution of pollutant levels in a metropolitan area. Estimation methods are used to develop this distribution. The pollution concentration caused by a point source is modeled as a Gaussian plume. The uncertainty in the measurements is used to determine the accuracy of estimating the source strength, the wind velocity, diffusion coefficients and source location.

Smith, G. L.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Estimation of dynamic stability parameters from drop model flight tests

A recent NASA application of a remotely-piloted drop model to studies of the high angle-of-attack and spinning characteristics of a fighter configuration has provided an opportunity to evaluate and develop parameter estimation methods for the complex aerodynamic environment associated with high angles of attack. The paper discusses the overall drop model operation including descriptions of the model, instrumentation, launch and recovery operations, piloting concept, and parameter identification methods used. Static and dynamic stability derivatives were obtained for an angle-of-attack range from -20 deg to 53 deg. The results of the study indicated that the variations of the estimates with angle of attack were consistent for most of the static derivatives, and the effects of configuration modifications to the model (such as nose strakes) were apparent in the static derivative estimates. The dynamic derivatives exhibited greater uncertainty levels than the static derivatives, possibly due to nonlinear aerodynamics, model response characteristics, or additional derivatives.

Chambers, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Improving the AVHRR Long Term Data Record BRDF Correction

The Long Term Data Record (LTDR) project has the goal of developing a quality and consistent surface reflectance product from coarse resolution optical sensors. This paper focuses on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) part of the record, using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument as a reference. When a surface reflectance time series is acquired from satellites with variable observation geometry, the directional variation generates an apparent noise which can be corrected by modeling the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF). The VJB (Vermote, Justice and Bréon, 2009) method estimates a target’s BRDF shape using 5 years of observation and corrects for directional effects maintaining the high temporal resolution of the measurement using the instantaneous Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The method was originally established on MODIS data but its viability and optimization for AVHRR data have not been fully explored. In this study we analyze different approaches to find the most robust way of applying the VJB correction to AVHRR data, considering that high noise in the red band (B1) caused by atmospheric effect makes the VJB method unstable. Firstly, our results show that for coarse spatial resolution, where the vegetation dynamics of the target don’t change significantly, deriving BRDF parameters from 15+ years of observations reduces the average noise by up to 7% in the Near Infrared (NIR) band and 6% in the NDVI, in comparison to using 3-year windows. Secondly, we find that the VJB method can be modified for AVHRR data to improve the robustness of the correction parameters and decrease the noise by an extra 8% and 9% in the red and NIR bands with respect to using the classical VJB inversion. We do this by using the Stable method, which obtains the volumetric BRDF parameter (V) based on its NDVI dependency, and then obtains the geometric BRDF parameter (R) through the inversion of just one parameter.

LTDR↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of a Machine Learning Algorithm in Generating an Evapotranspiration Data Product From Coupled Thermal Infrared and Microwave Satellite Observations

Land surface evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the main energy sources for atmospheric dynamics and a critical component of the local, regional, and global water cycles. Consequently, accurate measurement or estimation of ET is one of the most active topics in hydro-climatology research. With massive and spatially distributed observational data sets of land surface properties and environmental conditions being collected from the ground, airborne or space-borne platforms daily over the past few decades, many research teams have started to use big data science to advance the ET estimation methods. The Geostationary satellite Evapotranspiration and Drought (GET-D) product system was developed at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in 2016 to generate daily ET and drought maps operationally. The primary inputs of the current GET-D system are the thermal infrared (TIR) observations from NOAA GOES satellite series. Because of the cloud contamination to the TIR observations, the spatial coverage of the daily GET-D ET product has been severely impacted. Based on the most recent advances, we have tested a machine learning algorithm to estimate all-weather land surface temperature (LST) from TIR and microwave (MW) combined satellite observations. With the regression tree machine learning approach, we can combine the high accuracy and high spatial resolution of GOES TIR data with the better spatial coverage of passive microwave observations and LST simulations from a land surface model (LSM). The regression tree model combines the three LST data sources for both clear and cloudy days, which enables the GET-D system to derive an all-weather ET product. This paper reports how the all-weather LST and ET are generated in the upgraded GET-D system and provides an evaluation of these LST and ET estimates with ground measurements. The results demonstrate that the regression tree machine learning method is feasible and effective for generating daily ET under all weather conditions with satisfactory accuracy from the big volume of satellite observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1986

Total ionospheric electron content calibration using SERIES GPS satellite data

The current status of the Deep Space Network advanced systems research into ionospheric calibration techniques, based on Global Positioning System (GPS) data is described. A GPS-based calibration system is planned to replace the currently used Faraday rotation method by 1989. The SERIES receiver system determines the differential group delay of signals transmitted at two different carrier frequencies. This differential delay includes an ionospheric component and a GPS transmitter offset. The transmitter offsets are different for each GPS satellite. Tests were conducted to assess the effect of the offsets on the ionospheric calibration accuracy. From the obtained data, the total electron content and GPS transmitter offsets are calculated by a least squares estimation method employing a local model of total ionospheric electron content. The end product is an estimation of the total ionospheric content for an arbitrary line-of-sight direction. For the presented polynomial fitting technique, the systematic error due to mismodeling is estimated to be approximately 6 x 10 to the 16th power el/sq m, while the formal error is approximately 2 x 10 to the 16th power el/sq m. The final goal is an error of 3 x 10 to the 16th power el/sq m (approximately 0.7 ns at 2.3 GHz).

Lanyi, G.↗