Multiscale Speciation of U and Pu at Chernobyl, Hanford, Los Alamos, McGuire AFB, Mayak, and Rocky Flats
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Batuk, Olga N.↗
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A Methodology for the Assessment of Unconventional (Continuous) Resources with an Application to the Greater Natural Buttes Gas Field, Utah
The Greater Natural Buttes tight natural gas field is an unconventional (continuous) accumulation in the Uinta Basin, Utah, that began production in the early 1950s from the Upper Cretaceous Mesaverde Group. Three years later, production was extended to the Eocene Wasatch Formation. With the exclusion of 1100 non-productive ('dry') wells, we estimate that the final recovery from the 2500 producing wells existing in 2007 will be about 1.7 trillion standard cubic feet (TSCF) (48.2 billion cubic meters (BCM)). The use of estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) per well is common in assessments of unconventional resources, and it is one of the main sources of information to forecast undiscovered resources. Each calculated recovery value has an associated drainage area that generally varies from well to well and that can be mathematically subdivided into elemental subareas of constant size and shape called cells. Recovery per 5-acre cells at Greater Natural Buttes shows spatial correlation; hence, statistical approaches that ignore this correlation when inferring EUR values for untested cells do not take full advantage of all the information contained in the data. More critically, resulting models do not match the style of spatial EUR fluctuations observed in nature. This study takes a new approach by applying spatial statistics to model geographical variation of cell EUR taking into account spatial correlation and the influence of fractures. We applied sequential indicator simulation to model non-productive cells, while spatial mapping of cell EUR was obtained by applying sequential Gaussian simulation to provide multiple versions of reality (realizations) having equal chances of being the correct model. For each realization, summation of EUR in cells not drained by the existing wells allowed preparation of a stochastic prediction of undiscovered resources, which range between 2.6 and 3.4 TSCF (73.6 and 96.3 BCM) with a mean of 2.9 TSCF (82.1 BCM) for Greater Natural Buttes. A second approach illustrates the application of multiple-point simulation to assess a hypothetical frontier area for which there is no production information but which is regarded as being similar to Greater Natural Buttes.
03 NATURAL GAS↗
A machine learning estimator trained on synthetic data for real-time earthquake ground-shaking predictions in Southern California
Abstract After large-magnitude earthquakes, a crucial task for impact assessment is to rapidly and accurately estimate the ground shaking in the affected region. To satisfy real-time constraints, intensity measures are traditionally evaluated with empirical Ground Motion Models that can drastically limit the accuracy of the estimated values. As an alternative, here we present Machine Learning strategies trained on physics-based simulations that require similar evaluation times. We trained and validated the proposed Machine Learning-based Estimator for ground shaking maps with one of the largest existing datasets (<100M simulated seismograms) from CyberShake developed by the Southern California Earthquake Center covering the Los Angeles basin. For a well-tailored synthetic database, our predictions outperform empirical Ground Motion Models provided that the events considered are compatible with the training data. Using the proposed strategy we show significant error reductions not only for synthetic, but also for five real historical earthquakes, relative to empirical Ground Motion Models.
Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DEEPEN: Final 3D PFA Favorability Models and 2D Favorability Maps at Newberry Volcano
Part of the DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments) project involved developing and testing a methodology for a 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) for multiple play types (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). This was tested using new and existing geoscientific exploration datasets at Newberry Volcano. This GDR submission includes images, data, and models related to the 3D favorability and uncertainty models and the 2D favorability and uncertainty maps. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology, detailed in the journal article below, is based on the method proposed by Poux & O'brien (2020), which uses the Leapfrog Geothermal software with the Edge extension to conduct PFA in 3D. This method uses all available data to build a 3D geodata model which can be broken down into smaller blocks and analyzed with advanced geostatistical methods. Each data set is imported into a 3D model in Leapfrog and divided into smaller blocks. Conditional queries can then be used to assign each block an index value which conditionally ranks each block's favorability, from 0-5 with 5 being most favorable, for each model (e.g., lithologic, seismic, magnetic, structural). The values between 0-5 assigned to each block are referred to as index values. The final step of the process is to combine all the index models to create a favorability index. This involves multiplying each index model by a given weight and then summing the resulting values. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology follows this approach, but split up by the specific geologic components of each play type. These components are defined as follows for each magmatic play type: 1. Conventional hydrothermal plays in magmatic environments: Heat, fluid, and permeability 2. Superhot EGS plays: Heat, thermal insulation, and producibility (the ability to create and sustain fractures suitable for and EGS reservoir) 3. Supercritical plays: Heat, supercritical fluid, pressure seal, and producibility (the proper permeability and pressure conditions to allow production of supercritical fluid) More information on these components and their development can be found in Kolker et al., (2022). For the purposes of subsurface imaging, it is easier to detect a permeable fluid-filled reservoir than it is to detect separate fluid and permeability components. Therefore, in this analysis, we combine fluid and permeability for conventional hydrothermal plays, and supercritical fluid and producibility for supercritical plays. We also project the 3D favorability volumes onto 2D surfaces for simplified joint interpretation, and we incorporate an uncertainty component. Uncertainty was modeled using the best approach for the dataset in question, for the datasets where we had enough information to do so. Identifying which subsurface parameters are the least resolved can help qualify current PFA results and focus future efforts in data collection. Where possible, the resulting uncertainty models/indices were weighted using the same weights applied to the respective datasets, and summed, following the PFA methodology above, but for uncertainty.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
FY 2026 Midyear Report: Seismic Monitoring of Underground Vibration Sources Using Distributed Acoustic Sensing and Seismometers
Safeguards-relevant temporal changes in underground facilities can be observed using geophysical monitoring techniques. Seismic waves, in particular, provide valuable insights into subsurface activities and can serve as an important tool for detecting anomalous events that may indicate containment breaches at geological repositories. This midyear report summarizes ongoing efforts to automatically and rapidly detect and locate anomalous vibration signals that could be indicative of potential containment breaches. Previous work during FY25 focused on compiling continuous seismic datasets from two underground sites and developing a database of continuous waveforms and ground-truth event data derived from multiple sensing modalities. Building on this foundation, we are adapting anomaly detection and geolocation algorithms to explore methods for monitoring underground activities using two relatively low-maintenance sensing technologies: a dense surface geophone array deployed at the Pleasant Gap mine in Pennsylvania, and a three-dimensional fiber-optic cable array for distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) installed in the subsurface at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in South Dakota. This report summarizes work conducted during the first two quarters of FY26, during which we refined a dynamic power spectral density (PSD)-based detector, applied it independently to each geophone station, and then combined the per‑station detections with density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) to cluster events and produce spatial maps over a nine‑day interval. In addition, we outline plans for a field trial at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in New Mexico to compare traditional seismic monitoring approaches with DAS techniques and to evaluate the benefits of combined data analysis. Activities during the past two quarters have included the preparation and submission of a Field Test Plan to WIPP for approval, as well as submission to headquarters for review and feedback.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis, Part 2: GIS methodology
Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) in geothermal exploration originates from a systematic methodology developed within the petroleum industry and is based on a geologic, geophysical, and hydrologic framework of identified geothermal systems. We tailored this methodology to study the geothermal resource potential of the Snake River Plain and surrounding region, but it can be adapted to other geothermal resource settings. We adapted the PFA approach to geothermal resource exploration by cataloging the critical elements controlling exploitable hydrothermal systems, establishing risk matrices that evaluate these elements in terms of both probability of success and level of knowledge, and building a code-based ‘processing model’ to process results. A geographic information system was used to compile a range of different data types, which we refer to as elements (e.g., faults, vents, heat flow, etc.), with distinct characteristics and measures of confidence. Discontinuous discrete data (points, lines, or polygons) for each element were transformed into continuous interpretive 2D grid surfaces called evidence layers. Because different data types have varying uncertainties, most evidence layers have an accompanying confidence layer which reflects spatial variations in these uncertainties. Risk layers, as defined here, are the product of evidence and confidence layers, and are the building blocks used to construct Common Risk Segment (CRS) maps for heat, permeability, and seal, using a weighted sum for permeability and heat, but a different approach with seal. CRS maps quantify the variable risk associated with each of these critical components. In a final step, the three CRS maps were combined into a Composite Common Risk Segment (CCRS) map, using a modified weighted sum, for results that reveal favorable areas for geothermal exploration. Additional maps are also presented that do not mix contributions from evidence and confidence (to allow an isolated view of evidence and confidence), as well as maps that calculate favorability using the product of components instead of a weighted sum (to highlight where all components are present). Our approach helped to identify areas of high geothermal favorability in the western and central Snake River Plain during the first phase of study and helped identify more precise local drilling targets during the second phase of work. By identifying favorable areas, this methodology can help to reduce uncertainty in geothermal energy exploration and development.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
INTERPRETATION OF AIRBORNE ELECTROMAGNETIC AND MAGNETIC DATA IN THE 600 AREA
As part of the 200-PO-1 Phase I geophysical surveys, Fugro Airborne Surveys was contracted to collect airborne electromagnetic (EM) and magnetic surveys of the Hanford Site 600 Area. Two helicopter survey systems were used with the HeliGEOTEM{reg_sign} time domain portion flown between June 19th and June 20th, 2008, and the RESOLVE{reg_sign} frequency domain portion was flown from June 29th to July 1st, 2008. Magnetic data were acquired contemporaneously with the electromagnetic surveys using a total-field cesium vapor magnetometer. Approximately 925 line kilometers (km) were flown using the HeliGEOTEM{reg_sign} II system and 412 line kilometers were flown using the RESOLVE{reg_sign} system. The HeliGEOTEM system has an effective penetration of roughly 250 meters into the ground and the RESOLVE system has an effective penetration of roughly 60 meters. Acquisition parameters and preliminary results are provided in SGW-39674, Airborne Electromagnetic Survey Report, 200-PO-1 Groundwater Operable Unit, 600 Area, Hanford Site. Airborne data are interpreted in this report in an attempt to identify areas of likely preferential groundwater flow within the aquifer system based on the presence of paleochannels or fault zones. The premise for the interpretation is that coarser-grained intervals have filled in scour channels created by episodic catastrophic flood events during the late Pleistocene. The interpretation strategy used the magnetic field anomaly data and existing bedrock maps to identify likely fault or lineament zones. Combined analysis of the magnetic, 60-Hz noise monitor, and flight-altitude (radar) data were used to identify zones where EM response is more likely due to cultural interference and or bedrock structures. Cross-sectional and map view presentations of the EM data were used to identify more electrically resistive zones that likely correlate with coarser-grained intervals. The resulting interpretation identifies one major northwest-southeast trending preferential flowpath with several minor units running along a similar trend. This presumed path of preferential flow is compared with the tritium concentration levels observed for the 600 Area. Analysis of the magnetic field data shows the location of potential bedrock faults and lineaments which may influence the horizontal and vertical flow of water. Faults lying within, or in the vicinity of preferential groundwater flow paths may allow flow into or out of the otherwise confined basalt layers.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Hydrologic Model Files (PRMS) for Historical Conditions in the East River Watershed, Colorado between 1987-2019
The data package contains model input and output file for the East River watershed (85 km2) located in the headwaters of the Colorado River. The model is the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Precipitation-Modeling Runoff System (PRMS) for the historical, or baseline, condition (1987-2019) to assess the efficiency of summer monsoon rains to generate streamflow. The finite difference grid resolution is 100 m with elevations resampled from the USGS National Elevation Dataset. LANDFIRE raster data is used to derive parameters of dominant cover type, summer and winter cover density, canopy interception characteristics for snow and rain and transmission coefficient for shortwave radiation. Climate forcing uses minimum and maximum daily temperature lapse rates defined by the two Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations located in the vicinity of the East River adjusted for aspect. Schofield SNOTEL snowfall is spatially distributed using LiDAR derived snow depth observations from the Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) flown 4 April 2016. Snow depths are converted to snow water equivalent based on ground surveys and density modeling. Rainfall is spatially distributed using the monthly Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model 30-year monthly averages. Simulated solar radiation is calibrated to match weather station observations. Model verification of snow water equivalent (SWE) accumulation and ablation relies on the 2018 and 2019 ASO maps and weather station snow depth. The data package contains model input files in text format, model documentation in pfd and a readme.txt file to help users understand the file structure to run the program.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
An Integrated Feasibility Study of Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage (RTES) in Portland, OR, USA
In regions with long cold overcast winters and sunny summers, Deep Direct-Use (DDU) can be coupled with Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage (RTES) technology to take advantage of pre-existing subsurface permeability to save summer heat for later use during cold seasons. Many aquifers worldwide are underlain by permeable regions (reservoirs) containing brackish or saline groundwater that has limited beneficial use due to poor water quality. We investigate the utility of these relatively deep, slow flowing reservoirs for RTES by conducting an integrated feasibility study in the Portland Basin, Oregon, USA, developing methods and obtaining results that can be widely applied to RTES systems elsewhere. As a case study, we have conducted an economic and social cost-benefit analysis for the Oregon Health and Science University (OHSU), a teaching hospital that is recognized as critical infrastructure in the Portland Metropolitan Area. Our investigation covers key factors that influence feasibility including 1) the geologic framework, 2) heat and fluid flow modeling, 3) capital and maintenance costs, 4) the regulatory framework, and 5) operational risks. By pairing a model of building seasonal heat demand with an integrated model of RTES resource supply, we determine that the most important factors that influence RTES efficacy in the study area are operational schedule, well spacing, the amount of summer heat stored (in our model, a function of solar array size), and longevity of the system. Generally, heat recovery efficiency increases as the reservoir and surrounding rocks warm, making RTES more economical with time. Selecting a base-case scenario, we estimate a levelized cost of heat (LCOH) to compare with other sources of heating available to OHSU and find that it is comparable to unsubsidized solar and nuclear, but more expensive than natural gas. Additional benefits of RTES include energy resiliency in the event that conventional energy supplies are disrupted (e.g., natural disaster) and a reduction in fossil fuel consumption resulting in a smaller carbon footprint. Key risks include reservoir heterogeneity and a possible reduction in permeability through time due to scaling (mineral precipitation). Lastly, a map of thermal energy storage capacity for the Portland Basin yields a total of 43,400 GWh, suggesting tremendous potential for RTES in the Portland Metropolitan Area.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Prediction and Inference of Multi-scale Electrical Properties of Geomaterials
Motivated by the need for improved forward modeling and inversion capabilities of geophysical response in geologic settings whose fine--scale features demand accountability, this project describes two novel approaches which advance the current state of the art. First is a hierarchical material properties representation for finite element analysis whereby material properties can be prescribed on volumetric elements, in addition to their facets and edges. Hence, thin or fine--scaled features can be economically represented by small numbers of connected edges or facets, rather than 10's of millions of very small volumetric elements. Examples of this approach are drawn from oilfield and near--surface geophysics where, for example, electrostatic response of metallic infastructure or fracture swarms is easily calculable on a laptop computer with an estimated reduction in resource allocation by 4 orders of magnitude over traditional methods. Second is a first-ever solution method for the space--fractional Helmholtz equation in geophysical electromagnetics, accompanied by newly--found magnetotelluric evidence supporting a fractional calculus representation of multi-scale geomaterials. Whereas these two achievements are significant in themselves, a clear understanding the intermediate length scale where these two endmember viewpoints must converge remains unresolved and is a natural direction for future research. Additionally, an explicit mapping from a known multi-scale geomaterial model to its equivalent fractional calculus representation proved beyond the scope of the present research and, similarly, remains fertile ground for future exploration.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Fully Automated Profile-based Calibration Strategy for Airborne and Terrestrial Mobile LiDAR Systems with Spinning Multi-beam Laser Units
LiDAR-based mobile mapping systems (MMS) are rapidly gaining popularity for a multitude of applications due to their ability to provide complete and accurate 3D point clouds for any and every scene of interest. However, an accurate calibration technique for such systems is needed in order to unleash their full potential. In this paper, we propose a fully automated profile-based strategy for the calibration of LiDAR-based MMS. The proposed technique is validated by comparing its accuracy against the expected point positioning accuracy for the point cloud based on the used sensors’ specifications. The proposed strategy was seen to reduce the misalignment between different tracks from approximately 2 to 3 m before calibration down to less than 2 cm after calibration for airborne as well as terrestrial mobile LiDAR mapping systems. In other words, the proposed calibration strategy can converge to correct estimates of mounting parameters, even in cases where the initial estimates are significantly different from the true values. Furthermore, the results from the proposed strategy are also verified by comparing them to those from an existing manually-assisted feature-based calibration strategy. The major contribution of the proposed strategy is its ability to conduct the calibration of airborne and wheel-based mobile systems without any requirement for specially designed targets or features in the surrounding environment. The above claims are validated using experimental results conducted for three different MMS – two airborne and one terrestrial – with one or more LiDAR unit.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
Prediction of Distributed River Sediment Respiration Rates Using Community-Generated Data and Machine Learning
River sediment microbial respiration is a key indicator of ecosystem functioning and the biogeochemical fluxes across this critical zone link surface and subsurface waters. As such, there is tremendous interest in measuring and mapping these respiration rates. Respiration observations are expensive and labor intensive; there is limited data available to the community. An open science, collaborative initiative is collecting samples for respiration rate analysis and multi-scale metadata; this evolving data set is being used for making machine learning (ML) predictions at unsampled sites to help inform continued community engagement. However, it is a challenge to find an optimum configuration for ML models to work with this feature-rich (i.e., 100+ possible input variables) data set. Here, we present results from a two-tiered approach to managing the analysis of this complex data set: (a) a stacked ensemble of models that automatically optimizes hyperparameters and manages the training of many models and (b) feature permutation importance to detect the most important features in the models. The major elements of this workflow are modular, portable, open, and cloud-based thus making this implementation a potential template for other applications. The models developed here predict that sediment organic matter chemistry is one of the most important features for predicting sediment respiration rate. Other larger-scale, important features fall into the categories of climatic, ecological, geological, and fluvial settings. Leveraging these larger-scale features to generate data-driven estimates of river sediment respiration rates reveals spatially consistent but heterogeneous patterns across the river network of the Columbia River Basin.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A Play-Based Exploration of CO 2 Storage in the Illinois Basin: Community Baseline Assessment for Carbon Storage Engagement Planning in the Illinois Basin
This report presents a stakeholder mapping analysis conducted as part of the Play-Based Exploration of CO 2 Storage in the Illinois Basin project (DOE Cooperative Agreement DE-FE0032366). The analysis was undertaken to systematically identify, categorize, and characterize stakeholder groups and community conditions relevant to the planning and deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) infrastructure across the Illinois Basin. Its purpose is to establish a contextual baseline that informs targeted engagement strategies, supports equitable project planning, and strengthens the social dimensions of CCS site screening.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
Geostatistical Mapping of Salinity Conditioned on Borehole Logs, Montebello Oil Field, California
We present a geostatistics-based stochastic salinity estimation framework for the Montebello Oil Field that capitalizes on available total dissolved solids (TDS) data from groundwater samples as well as electrical resistivity (ER) data from borehole logging. Data from TDS samples (n = 4924) was coded into an indicator framework based on falling below four selected thresholds (500, 1000, 3000, and 10,000 mg/L). Collocated TDS-ER data from the surrounding groundwater basin were then employed to produce a kernel density estimator to establish conditional probabilities for ER data (n = 8 boreholes) falling below the selected TDS thresholds within the Montebello Oil Field area. Directional variograms were estimated from these indicator coded data, and 500 TDS realizations from conditional indicator simulation were generated for the subsurface region above the Montebello Oil Field reservoir. Simulations were summarized as 3D maps of median TDS, most likely salinity class, and probability for exceeding each of the specified TDS thresholds. Results suggested TDS was below 500 mg/L in most of the study area, with a trend toward higher values (500 to 1000 mg/L) to the southwest; consistent with the average regional groundwater flow direction. Discrete localized zones of TDS greater than 1000 mg/L were observed, with one of these zones in the greater than 10,000 mg/L range; however, these areas were not prevalent. The probabilistic approach used here is adaptable and is readily modified to include additional data and types and can be employed in time-lapse salinity modeling through Bayesian updating.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Surface Variability Mapping and Roughness Analysis of the Moon Using a Coarse–Graining Decomposition
The lunar surface contains a wide variety of topographic shapes and features, each with different distributions and scales, and any analysis technique to objectively measure roughness must respect these qualities. Coarse-graining is a naturally scale-dependent filtering technique that preserves scale-dependent symmetries and produces coarse elevation maps that gradually erase the smaller features from the original topography. In this study of the lunar surface, we present two surface variability metrics obtained from coarse-graining lunar topography: fine elevation and coarse curvature. Both metrics are isotropic, deterministic, slope-independent, and coordinate-agnostic. Fine (detrended) elevation is acquired by subtracting the coarse elevation from the original topography and contains features that are smaller than the coarse-graining length-scale. Coarse curvature is the Laplacian of coarsened topography, and naturally quantifies the curvature at any scale and indicates whether a location is elevated or depressed relative to its neighborhood at that scale. We find that highlands and maria have distinct roughness characteristics at all length-scales. Our topographic spectra reveal four scale-breaks that mark characteristic shifts in surface roughness: 100, 300, 1,000, and 4,000 km. Comparing fine elevation distributions between maria and highlands, we show that maria fine elevation is biased toward smaller-magnitude elevations and that the maria–highland discrepancies are more pronounced at larger length-scales. Here, we also provide local examples of selected regions to demonstrate that these metrics can successfully distinguish geological features of different length-scales.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Dating submarine landslides using the transient response of gas hydrate stability
Abstract Submarine landslides are prevalent on the modern-day seafloor, yet an elusive problem is constraining the timing of past slope failure. We present a novel age-dating technique based on perturbations to underlying gas hydrate stability caused by slide-impacted seafloor changes. Using three-dimensional (3-D) seismic data, we mapped an irregular bottom simulating reflection (BSR) underneath a submarine landslide in the Orca Basin, Gulf of Mexico. The irregular BSR mimics the pre-slide seafloor geometry rather than the modern bathymetry. Therefore, we suggest that the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) is still adjusting to the post-slide sediment temperature. We applied transient conductive heat-flow modeling to constrain the response of the GHSZ to the slope failure, which yielded a most likely age of ca. 8 ka, demonstrating that gas hydrate can respond to landslides even on multimillennial time scales. We further provide a generalized analytical solution that can be used to remotely date submarine slides in the absence of traditional dating techniques.
Geology↗
Final report of a scalable, automated, semipermanent seismic array (SASSA) method for detecting CO 2 extent during geologic CO 2 injection
The scalable, automated, semipermanent seismic array (SASSA) project led and managed by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) was designed as a 3-year proof-of-concept study to evaluate and demonstrate an innovative application of the seismic method. The concept was to use a sparse surface array of 96 nodal seismic sensors paired with a single, remotely operated active seismic source at a fixed location to monitor for CO 2 saturation changes in a subsurface reservoir by processing the data for time-lapse changes at individual, strategically chosen reservoir reflection points. The combination of autonomous equipment and modern processing algorithms was used to apply the seismic method in a manner different from the normal paradigm of collecting a spatially dense data set to produce an image. It was used instead to monitor individual, strategically chosen reservoir reflection points for detectable signal character changes that could be attributed to the passing of a CO 2 saturation front or, possibly, changes in reservoir pressure. Data collection occurred over the course of 1 year at an oil field undergoing CO 2 injection for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and focused on four overlapping “five-spot” EOR injector–producer patterns. Selection, procurement, configuration, installation, and testing of project equipment and collection of five baseline data sets were completed in advance of CO 2 injection within the study area. Weekly remote data collection produced 41 incremental time-lapse records for each of the 96 nodes. Validation was provided by two methods: 1) a conventional 2-D seismic line acquired through the center of the study area before injection started and again after the project ended and processed in a time-lapse manner and 2) by CO 2 saturation maps created from reservoir simulations based on injection and production history matching. Interpreted results were encouraging but mixed, with indications of changes likely due to the presence of CO 2 on some node reflection points where and when effects would be expected and noneffects where no CO 2 was expected, while results at some locations where simulation outputs suggested CO 2 should be present were ambiguous. Acquisition noise impacted interpretation of data at several locations. Many lessons learned were generated by the study to inform and improve results on a follow-up study. The ultimate aim of the project was to evaluate whether deployment of a SASSA technology can provide a useful and cost-effective monitoring solution for future CO 2 injection projects. The answer appears to be affirmative, with the expectation that lessons learned applied to future iterations, together with technology advances, will likely result in significant improvements.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Performance evaluation of the USGS velocity model for the San Francisco Bay Area
In this study, we evaluated the performance of the United States Geological Survey velocity model developed for the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), version 21.1. The evaluation was performed through high-resolution three-dimensional physics-based ground motion simulations of seven small-magnitude earthquakes (ranging from magnitude 3.8 to 4.4) that occurred on the eastern side of the San Francisco Bay. The simulations were performed in the frequency range from 0 to 5 Hz with a minimum shear-wave velocity of 250 m/s, which allowed the capture of wave propagation effects of the near-surface soft materials that characterize local basins. Based on the direct comparison of Fourier amplitude spectra between recorded and simulated ground motions for more than 250 stations, we found that the velocity model generally performs well in the frequency range of 0.2–5 Hz. The median value of the Fourier amplitude residuals was found to be near zero for all seven earthquakes. The slight over-prediction of 0.2 log-natural units at frequencies above 3 Hz in our simulations was attributed to the potentially inaccurate representation of the source radiation pattern by a double-couple point source model, and simple representation of shallow small-scale underground structural complexity in the velocity model. Maps of spectral amplitude differences between the simulated and recorded data were used to identify areas responsible for systematic ground motion over-predictions or under-predictions. For example, while some sub-domains over soft sediments show over-prediction patterns, the block east of the Hayward fault is prone to exhibit patterns of under-prediction. These maps can be used to guide future refinements of the SFBA velocity model. Since our simulation methodology allows for the decoupling of the source and wave propagation effects, the ground motion data generated by our simulations can also be used to quantify the epistemic uncertainty due to the velocity model, in empirically based ground motion estimates for the SFBA.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗