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Probabilistic Model for Low Altitude Trapped Proton Fluxes

A new approach is developed for the assessment of low altitude trapped proton fluxes for future space missions. Low altitude fluxes are dependent on solar activity levels due to the resulting heating and cooling of the upper atmosphere. However, solar activity levels cannot be accurately predicted far enough into the future to accommodate typical spacecraft mission planning. Thus, the approach suggested here is to evaluate the trapped proton flux as a function of confidence level for a given mission time period. This is possible because of a recent advance in trapped proton modeling that uses the solar 10.7 cm radio flux, a measure of solar cycle activity, to calculate trapped proton fluxes as a continuous function of time throughout the solar cycle. This trapped proton model is combined with a new statistical description of the 10.7 cm flux to obtain the probabilistic model for low altitude trapped proton fluxes. Results for proton energies ranging from 1.5 to 81.3 MeV are examined as a function of time throughout solar cycle 22 for various orbits. For altitudes below 1000 km, fluxes are significantly higher and energy spectra are significantly harder than those predicted by the AP8 model.

Xapsos, M. A.↗

Coordinated Studies of Magnetospheric/Ionospheric Coupling and Dynamics in the Diffuse Aurora

The results of the studies carried out under the grant are described in detail in the following publications: Atmospheric Response in Aurora experiment: Observations of E and F region neutral winds in a region of postmidnight diffuse aurora; Walterscheid, Modified geostrophy in the thermosphere, ARIA II neutral flywheel-driven field-aligned currents in the postmidnight sector of the auroral oval: A case study; Observations of unstable atmospheric shear layers in the lower E region in the post-midnight auroral oval; and Depletion of oxygen in aurora: Evidence for a local mechanism. The objective of the Atmospheric Response in Aurora (ARIA) experiment was to measure the response of the E-region neutral flow to substorm activity in the post-midnight sector of the auroral oval. To this end, neutral wind profiles were obtained from a series of four sets of rocket flights using the chemical release technique. The measurements covered conditions ranging from quiet to disturbed. A consistent feature of the observed winds in disturbed conditions is the presence of an E-region jet located between approximately 110 and 120 km altitude. The profiles presented here show that the neutral wind speeds near 110-120 km altitude increase and the hodographs become more elongated or linear in response to higher magnetic activity levels. The wind speeds decrease and the hodographs become more circular as the activity level decreases. The presence of a wind maximum implies shears both above and below. The observations consistently show larger shears below the peak and smaller shears above. In fact, the bottom-side shears during disturbed conditions have Richardson numbers close to or below the critical value of 0.25 suggesting that the flow is highly unstable in that height range. The instability is expected to produce waves, turbulence, and enhanced diffusivity.

Larsen, M. F.↗

The 2018 Meteor Shower Activity Forecast for Earth Orbit

A number of meteor showers - the Ursids, Perseids, Leonids, eta Aquariids, Orionids, Draconids, and Andromedids - are predicted to exhibit increased rates in 2018. However, no major storms are predicted, and none of these enhanced showers outranks the typical activity of the Arietids, Southern delta Aquariids, and Geminids at small particle sizes. The MSFC stream model1 predicts higher than usual activity for the Ursid meteor shower in December 2018. While we expect an increase in activity, rates will fall short of the shower's historical outbursts in 1945 and 1986 when the zenithal hourly rate (ZHR) exceeded 100. Instead, the expected rate for 2018 is around 70. The Perseids, Leonids, eta Aquariids, and Orionids are expected to show mild enhancements over their baseline activity level in 2018. In the case of the Perseids, we may see an additional peak in activity a few hours before the traditional peak, but we do not expect activity levels as high as those seen in 2016 and 2017. The eta Aquariids and Orionids, which belong to a single meteoroid stream generated by comet 1P/Halley, are thought to have a 12-year activity cycle and are currently increasing in activity from year to year. Finally, we may see minor outbursts of the Draconids and Andromedids in 2018. Both showers have been difficult to model and have produced unexpected outbursts in recent years (the Draconids in 2012 and the Andromedids in 2011 and 2013). The Andromedids may produce two peaks, both of which are listed in Table 2. This document is designed to supplement spacecraft risk assessments that incorporate an annual averaged meteor shower flux (as is the case with all NASA meteoroid models). Results are presented relative to this baseline and are weighted to a constant kinetic energy. Two showers - the Daytime Arietids (ARI) and the Geminids (GEM) - attain flux levels approaching that of the baseline meteoroid environment for 0.1-cm-equivalent meteoroids. This size is the threshold for structural damage. These two showers, along with the Quadrantids (QUA) and Ursids (URS), exceed the baseline flux for 0.3-cm-equivalent particles, which is near the limit for pressure vessel penetration. Please note, however, that meteor shower fluxes drop dramatically with increasing particle size. For example, the Arietids contribute a flux of about 2x10-6 meteoroids m-2 hr-1 in the 0.04-cm-equivalent range, but only 4x10(exp -9) meteoroids sq m/hr for the 0.3-cm-equivalent and larger size regime. Thus, a PNP risk assessment should use the flux and flux enhancements corresponding to the smallest particle capable of penetrating a component, because the flux at this size will be the dominant contributor to the risk.

Moorhead, Althea↗

Quantitative imaging and automated fuel pin identification for passive gamma emission tomography

Compliance of member States to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is monitored through nuclear safeguards. The Passive Gamma Emission Tomography (PGET) system is a novel instrument developed within the framework of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) project JNT 1510, which included the European Commission, Finland, Hungary and Sweden. The PGET is used for the verification of spent nuclear fuel stored in water pools. Advanced image reconstruction techniques are crucial for obtaining high-quality cross-sectional images of the spent-fuel bundle to allow inspectors of the IAEA to monitor nuclear material and promptly identify its diversion. In this work, we have developed a software suite to accurately reconstruct the spent-fuel cross sectional image, automatically identify present fuel rods, and estimate their activity. Unique image reconstruction challenges are posed by the measurement of spent fuel, due to its high activity and the self-attenuation. While the former is mitigated by detector physical collimation, we implemented a linear forward model to model the detector responses to the fuel rods inside the PGET, to account for the latter. The image reconstruction is performed by solving a regularized linear inverse problem using the fast-iterative shrinkage-thresholding algorithm. We have also implemented the traditional filtered back projection (FBP) method based on the inverse Radon transform for comparison and applied both methods to reconstruct images of simulated mockup fuel assemblies. Higher image resolution and fewer reconstruction artifacts were obtained with the inverse-problem approach, with the mean-square-error reduced by 50%, and the structural-similarity improved by 200%. We then used a convolutional neural network (CNN) to automatically identify the bundle type and extract the pin locations from the images; the estimated activity levels finally being compared with the ground truth. The proposed computational methods accurately estimated the activity levels of the present pins, with an associated uncertainty of approximately 5%.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Agrivoltaic Decision Tools for Perennial and Field Crop Farmers

This article describes a series of spreadsheet-based tools to help farmers estimate costs, revenues, and yields from agricultural production under different configurations of agrivoltaic installations for field and perennial crops. Crop-specific log books allow farmers to project changes in activity-level costs from the field due to agrivoltaic installations. The whole-farm tool helps farmers aggregate activity-level net returns up to the farm level to calculate projections of trade-offs between crop production with or without agrivoltaic installations. We present tools for lettuce and cranberries, but the tools are comprehensive and inclusive and so can be modified for other perennial and field crops.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Cracking Behavior of Irradiated Ex-Plant Materials

The cracking behavior of reactor core internal materials is a key factor for the long-term safety and availability of light water reactors. Subject to high-temperature coolant, thermal and mechanical loading, and neutron irradiation, reactor core internal materials are susceptible to several degradation mechanisms during power operation. To understand the long-term effects of neutron irradiation, irradiated materials harvested from a decommissioned reactor were studied for their cracking susceptibility and fracture resistance. Small compact-tension specimens were machined from different locations on the baffle plates with irradiation doses ranging from 0.06 to 48.5 dpa. Crack growth rate and fracture toughness J-resistance (J-R) curve tests were performed on these specimens in a simulated light water reactor environment, and the fracture morphologies of the tested samples were examined with a scanning electron microscope. All samples behaved similarly under cyclic loading, and no deteriorated corrosion-fatigue behavior was observed in the test environments. Under constant load, no elevated cracking susceptibility was observed either in these samples at low stress intensity factors. However, a rapid cracking behavior featuring very high crack growth rates was observed in several high-dose samples. This rapid crack growth behavior was activated when the applied stress intensity factor, K, was sufficiently high. Once activated, the rapid crack growth remained steady even when the K was lowered to the pre-activation level and stopped only when the K was reduced drastically. Yet, the rapid crack growth could be re-activated repeatedly in these samples by raising the K above the initial activation level. This rapid cracking response may be related to the severe irradiation embrittlement experienced by these samples. The J-R curve tests performed with these samples showed a significant decline in fracture toughness with increasing neutron irradiation. Local cracking at the crack tip facilitated by the severe irradiation embrittlement of this material may be responsible for the rapid crack growth behavior demonstrated by this decommissioned material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Thermal positive ions in the outer ionosphere and magnetosphere from Ogo 1.

Study of the positive thermal ion densities measured with a spherical electrostatic analyzer aboard OGO 1 between September and October, 1964. A high variability of charged-particle distributions is established within and beyond the plasmapause boundary. The density gradient was in an inverse relation to the plasmapause L position and was consistently about one order of magnitude higher for the afternoon sector orbits than for the nightside orbits. Irregularities of different types were observed in the positive thermal ion densities within the plasmasphere and outside it, showing no correlation with the magnetic activity level. A delay of 3 to 9 hr was observed in the movement of the plasmapause following an increase in the magnetic activity level on the nightside.

Ahmed, M.↗

Electrodermal activity as a proxy for sweat rate monitoring during physical and mental activities

Electrodermal activity has long been used for mental activity monitoring by measuring skin conductance at specific locations, such as fingertips, with high sweat gland density. However, electrodermal activity has not been considered useful for physical activity monitoring, where large sweat volumes are generated, resulting in the accumulation of sweat at the skin–electrode interface and, thus, preventing further dynamic response to sweating events. Here we show that electrodermal activity can be used as a proxy for sweat loss measurement under both low and high physical activity levels. We use wearable sweat sensors that consist of water-permeable electrodes and microfluidic-based sweat analysers, and show that skin conductance is proportional to the instantaneous sweat loss. We demonstrate that sweat loss during exercise can be estimated by integrating skin conductance over time, which can be applied to assess the body hydration status of exercisers. From multisite measurements of skin conductance, we show that the wrist, forearm and upper arm are reflective of physical activity levels, whereas the finger is indicative of mental activity. Simultaneous measurement of two different sites selectively decouples mental and physical activities.

Biomedical engineering↗

Dietary Sodium Butyrate Supplementation Attenuates the Detrimental Effects of High-Fat Diets on Growth Performance, Liver Health, and Disease Resistance in Grass Carp

Abstract An 8-week experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of sodium butyrate (NaBT) inclusion in high-fat (HF) diets on growth performance, liver health, and disease resistance in Grass Carp Ctenopharyngodon idella. Three diets (Control diet containing crude lipid at 58 g/kg, HF diet with 108-g/kg crude lipid, and NaBT diet with 108-g/kg crude lipid and 1-g/kg NaBT) were randomly assigned to nine tanks with 30 fish (9.50 ± 0.06 g) in each tank. After the feeding trial, disease resistance was assessed by injecting the fish with Aeromonas hydrophila. Compared to the Control diet group, the HF diet group showed lower specific growth rate, feed efficiency, and survival rate (15.7%) after the A. hydrophila challenge; significantly higher activity levels of alanine aminotransferase and aspartate aminotransferase in plasma; higher malondialdehyde content; higher messenger RNA (mRNA) expression of interleukin-8, cysteinyl aspartate specific protease (caspase) 9, and caspase 3; lower activity level of glutathione peroxidase; and lower mRNA expression of nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2 in liver. However, the NaBT diet significantly increased fish growth performance and survival rate (39.7%) after the A. hydrophila challenge and reduced hepatic oxidative stress, inflammation, and apoptosis compared to the HF diet. In conclusion, NaBT can ameliorate the detrimental effects of HF diets on fish growth performance and fish health.

Gao, Shiyang↗

A Survey and Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

A number of techniques for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time scale are identified, described, and tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g. regression and curve-fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a complete description of future activity, while others, e.g. geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides the most accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This Combined Precursor Method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154+/-21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent upon the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude then describes the level of solar activity for the next complete cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146+/-20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting future solar activity suggests that solar magnetic phenomena at latitudes above the sunspot activity belts are linked to solar activity which occurs many years later in the lower latitudes.

Hathaway, David H.↗

A Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This combined precursor method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154 plus or minus 21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude is used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146 plus or minus 20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum.

Hathaway, David H.↗

Microgravity: a Teacher's Guide with Activities, Secondary Level

This NASA Educational Publication is a teacher's guide that focuses on microgravity for the secondary level student. The introduction answers the question 'What is microgravity?', as well as describing gravity and creating microgravity. Following the introduction is a microgravity primer which covers such topics as the fluid state, combustion science, materials science, biotechnology, as well as microgravity and space flight. Seven different activities are described in the activities section and are written by authors prominent in the field. The concluding sections of the book include a glossary, microgravity references, and NASA educational resources.

Vogt, Gregory L.↗

An Improved Solar Cycle Statistical Model for the Projection of Near Future Sunspot Cycles

Since the current solar cycle 23 has progressed near the end of the cycle and accurate solar minimum and maximum occurrences have been defined, a statistical model based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles was reexamined. Separate calculations of activity levels were made for the rising and declining phases in solar cycle 23, which resulted in improved projection of sunspots in the remainder of cycle 23. Because a fundamental understanding of the transition from cycle to cycle has not been developed, at this time it is assumed for projection purposes that solar cycle 24 will continue at the same activity level in the declining phase of cycle 23. Projection errors in solar cycle 24 can be corrected as the cycle progresses and observations become available because this model is shown to be self-correcting.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗

Dynamic Monitoring of Cleanroom Fallout Using an Air Particle Counter

The particle fallout limitations and periodic allocations for the James Webb Space Telescope are very stringent. Standard prediction methods are complicated by non-linearity and monitoring methods that are insufficiently responsive. A method for dynamically predicting the particle fallout in a cleanroom using air particle counter data was determined by numerical correlation. This method provides a simple linear correlation to both time and air quality, which can be monitored in real time. The summation of effects provides the program better understanding of the cleanliness and assists in the planning of future activities. Definition of fallout rates within a cleanroom during assembly and integration of contamination-sensitive hardware, such as the James Webb Space Telescope, is essential for budgeting purposes. Balancing the activity levels for assembly and test with the particle accumulation rate is paramount. The current approach to predicting particle fallout in a cleanroom assumes a constant air quality based on the rated class of a cleanroom, with adjustments for projected work or exposure times. Actual cleanroom class can also depend on the number of personnel present and the type of activities. A linear correlation of air quality and normalized particle fallout was determined numerically. An air particle counter (standard cleanroom equipment) can be used to monitor the air quality on a real-time basis and determine the "class" of the cleanroom (per FED-STD-209 or ISO-14644). The correlation function provides an area coverage coefficient per class-hour of exposure. The prediction of particle accumulations provides scheduling inputs for activity levels and cleanroom class requirements.

Perry, Radford↗

Status of Cycle 23 Forecasts

A number of techniques for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time scale are identified, described, and tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g,, regression and curve-fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month- by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but provide an estimate only of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides the most accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This precursor method gave a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154+21 for cycle 23. A mathematical function dependent upon the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude then describes the level of solar activity for the complete cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between recent activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast now gives a smoothed sunspot maximum of 140+20 for cycle 23. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting future solar activity suggests that solar magnetic phenomena at latitudes above the sunspot activity belts are linked to solar activity, which occurs many years later in the lower latitudes.

Hathaway, D. H.↗

The 2017 Meteor Shower Activity Forecast for Earth Orbit

Most meteor showers will display typical activity levels in 2017. Perseid activity is expected to be higher than normal but less than in 2016; rates may reach 80% of the peak ZHR in 2016. Despite this enhancement, the Perseids rank 4th in flux for 0.04-cm-equivalent meteoroids: the Geminids (GEM), Daytime Arietids (ARI), and Southern delta Aquariids (SDA) all produce higher fluxes. Aside from heightened Perseid activity, the 2017 forecast includes a number of changes. In 2016, the Meteoroid Environment Office used 14 years of shower flux data to revisit the activity profiles of meteor showers included in the annual forecast. Both the list of showers and the shape of certain major showers have been revised. The names and three-letter shower codes were updated to match those in the International Astronomical Union (IAU) Meteor Data Center, and a number of defunct or insignificant showers were removed. The most significant of these changes are the increased durations of the Daytime Arietid (ARI) and Geminid (GEM) meteor showers. This document is designed to supplement spacecraft risk assessments that incorporate an annual averaged meteor shower flux (as is the case with all NASA meteor models). Results are presented relative to this baseline and are weighted to a constant kinetic energy. Two showers - the Daytime Arietids (ARI) and the Geminids (GEM) - attain flux levels approaching that of the baseline meteoroid environment for 0.1-cm-equivalent meteoroids. This size is the threshold for structural damage. These two showers, along with the Quadrantids (QUA) and Perseids (PER), exceed the baseline flux for 0.3-cm-equivalent particles, which is near the limit for pressure vessel penetration. Please note, however, that meteor shower fluxes drop dramatically with increasing particle size. As an example, the Arietids contribute a flux of about 5x10(exp -6) meteoroids m(exp -2) hr-1 in the 0.04-cm-equivalent range, but only 1x10(exp -8) meteoroids m(sub -2) hr-1 for the 0.3-cmequivalent and larger size regime. Thus, a PNP risk assessment should use the flux and flux enhancements corresponding to the smallest particle capable of penetrating a component, because the flux at this size will be the dominant contributor to the risk.

Moorhead, Althea↗