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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating static PRA information with risk informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) simulation methods

The overall objective of the project was to develop a computationally feasible and user-friendly mechanized process to integrate traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and dynamic PRA (DPRA) results. Starting with the systematic identification of items in an existing PRA that need dynamic augmentation, the project used a generic 4-loop pressurized reactor (PWR) and 3-loop PWR as example plants. Station blackout (SBO) and large break loss of coolant accident SBLOCA) were selected as the example initiating events. Using the traditional event-tree (ET)/fault-tree (FT) methodology augmented by dynamic evet tree approach, the potential consequences of the initiating events were simulated with RELAP-3D and MELCOR/RASCAL codes to cover Level 1 through Level 3 of PRA. RAVEN and ADAPT software were used to generate Level 1 simulations with RELAP-3D and Level 2/3 simulations with MELCOR (Level 2)/RASCAL (Level 3), respectively. Example branching conditions (BCs) for SBO included AC power recovery time, valve repair failure time, reactor coolant pump leak time/break size and emergency power supply duration to a total of 9. Example BCs for LOCA included off-site power recovery time, diesel generator power recovery time, auxiliary feed water system operation time, safety relief valve failure to open upon demand, reactor coolant pump seal break time and size to a total of 21. Each RELAP-3D simulation (9,587 scenarios) was labelled OK or Core Damage based on the maximum allowed peak clad temperature (2,100oF). Each MELCOR simulation (4610 scenarios) was labeled as Bin over 10rem or Bin 0-10rem based on the dose at the site boundary. The scenarios were clustered based on the criteria above using the mean shift methodology. Classical PRA (CPRA) and DPRA results were compared to identify the ET sequences that need DPRA augmentation. Several approaches were proposed for the incorporation of these sequences into CPRA using clustering with the mean shift methodology, restructuring the CPRA ETs by adding new BCs/sequences, and using the concept of a limit surface. Procedures for decision making regarding the possible consequences of an initiating event (e.g. core damage or not, site evacuation or not) were developed using a convolutional neural network (CNN), a recurrent neural network (RNN) and a transformer neural network (TNN). The project has led to two PhD degrees, three archival journal papers and five refereed conference proceedings.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validating a Dynamic PWR Safety and Security Model?

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) are assessed for safety and security using separate models that cannot capture how an attacker's decisions and a plant's response unfold together in real time, leaving regulators and operators without a complete picture of true plant vulnerability. Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods treat adversarial events as fixed initiators with predetermined outcomes, and are structurally incapable of representing the time-dependent interplay between physical security events, safety system response, and operator mitigative actions. At Idaho National Laboratory (INL), I contributed to the development and validation of Modeling and Analysis for Safety and Security using the Dynamic EMRALD Framework (MASS-DEF). Where static PRA relies on event-tree logic that cannot evolve mid-scenario, MASS-DEF couples a time-dependent dynamic PRA tool EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams) with attack simulation software, allowing attacker behavior, plant system states, and operator actions to interact across time. My work focused on validating a general Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) model. I traced model logic against PWR plant to identified errors in logic and confirm accuracy. I then built and tested attack scenarios against a general PWR model to verify that the model produced expected outcomes across all logical pathways. I also contributed a section to a related technical paper applying the same EMRALD platform to radiation dose modeling. Results show that MASS-DEF can quantitatively demonstrate that many plants exceed their regulatory security thresholds. This demonstrated margin provides a technically defensible basis for reducing the number of guards without compromising regulatory compliance. Physical security costs represent roughly 10% of annual operating budgets, making such reductions directly meaningful to INL's mission of sustaining existing commercial NPPs. This internship strengthened my understanding of nuclear systems, probabilistic modeling, and technical writing, and has solidified my pursuit of a career at a national laboratory.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗
DOE OSTI2021

Event-modeled Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagrams

Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) is a software tool developed at INL for researching the capabilities of dynamic PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment). In order to promote the effective use of dynamic PRA by the general community, EMRALD focuses on the following key aspects: Simplifying the modeling process by providing a structure that corresponds to traditional PRA modeling methods Providing a user interface (UI) that makes it easy for the user to model and visualize complex interactions Allowing the user to couple with other analysis applications such as physics based simulations. This includes one-way communication for most applications and two-way loose coupling for customizable applications Providing the sequence and timing of events that lead to the specified outcomes when calculating results Traditional aspects of components with basic events, fault trees, and event trees are all captured in a dynamic framework of state diagrams, which are displayed.

Prescott, SteveR↗
DOE OSTI2024

Magnetic tunnel junction random number generators applied to dynamically tuned probability trees driven by spin orbit torque

Abstract Perpendicular magnetic tunnel junction (pMTJ)-based true-random number generators (RNGs) can consume orders of magnitude less energy per bit than CMOS pseudo-RNGs. Here, we numerically investigate with a macrospin Landau–Lifshitz-Gilbert equation solver the use of pMTJs driven by spin–orbit torque to directly sample numbers from arbitrary probability distributions with the help of a tunable probability tree. The tree operates by dynamically biasing sequences of pMTJ relaxation events, called ‘coinflips’, via an additional applied spin-transfer-torque current. Specifically, using a single, ideal pMTJ device we successfully draw integer samples on the interval [0, 255] from an exponential distribution based on p -value distribution analysis. In order to investigate device-to-device variations, the thermal stability of the pMTJs are varied based on manufactured device data. It is found that while repeatedly using a varied device inhibits ability to recover the probability distribution, the device variations average out when considering the entire set of devices as a ‘bucket’ to agnostically draw random numbers from. Further, it is noted that the device variations most significantly impact the highest level of the probability tree, with diminishing errors at lower levels. The devices are then used to draw both uniformly and exponentially distributed numbers for the Monte Carlo computation of a problem from particle transport, showing excellent data fit with the analytical solution. Finally, the devices are benchmarked against CMOS and memristor RNGs, showing faster bit generation and significantly lower energy use.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Species-Specific Shifts in Diurnal Sap Velocity Dynamics and Hysteretic Behavior of Ecophysiological Variables During the 2015–2016 El Niño Event in the Amazon Forest

Current climate change scenarios indicate warmer temperatures and the potential for more extreme droughts in the tropics, such that a mechanistic understanding of the water cycle from individual trees to landscapes is needed to adequately predict future changes in forest structure and function. In this study, we contrasted physiological responses of tropical trees during a normal dry season with the extreme dry season due to the 2015–2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. We quantified high resolution temporal dynamics of sap velocity (V s ), stomatal conductance (g s ) and leaf water potential (Ψ L ) of multiple canopy trees, and their correlations with leaf temperature (T leaf ) and environmental conditions [direct solar radiation, air temperature (T air ) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD)]. The experiment leveraged canopy access towers to measure adjacent trees at the ZF2 and Tapajós tropical forest research (near the cities of Manaus and Santarém). The temporal difference between the peak of g s (late morning) and the peak of VPD (early afternoon) is one of the major regulators of sap velocity hysteresis patterns. Sap velocity displayed species-specific diurnal hysteresis patterns reflected by changes in T leaf . In the morning, T leaf and sap velocity displayed a sigmoidal relationship. In the afternoon, stomatal conductance declined as T leaf approached a daily peak, allowing Ψ L to begin recovery, while sap velocity declined with an exponential relationship with Tleaf. In Manaus, hysteresis indices of the variables T leaf -T air and Ψ L -T leaf were calculated for different species and a significant difference (p < 0.01, α = 0.05) was observed when the 2015 dry season (ENSO period) was compared with the 2017 dry season (“control scenario”). In some days during the 2015 ENSO event, T leaf approached 40°C for all studied species and the differences between T leaf and T air reached as high at 8°C (average difference: 1.65 ± 1.07°C). Generally, T leaf was higher than T air during the middle morning to early afternoon, and lower than T air during the early morning, late afternoon and night. Our results support the hypothesis that partial stomatal closure allows for a recovery in Ψ L during the afternoon period giving an observed counterclockwise hysteresis pattern between Ψ L and T leaf .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Context matters: Natural tree mortality can lead to neighbor growth release or suppression

Where competition suppresses tree growth, mortality of adjacent trees can release the surviving individuals, leading to a growth increase. However, primary forests are complicated systems, where trees interact in both competitive and facilitative ways mediated by their size, species, and the broad ecological context in which they grow. Thus, the magnitude and even direction of growth responses to the mortality of nearby trees may vary, which has implications for our understanding of community- and ecosystem-level dynamics following mortality events. Unfortunately, although many studies focus on the impacts of light availability and general crowding on tree growth, we know relatively little about the effects of naturally occurring mortality events on the growth of neighboring trees. To address this issue, we used 40 years of data from 15 permanent forest-monitoring plots in Mt Rainier old-growth forests, comparing observed to expected radial growth of individual trees following the death of their nearest neighbor. Although we found evidence of a general growth-release response, this was not universal among all trees, with small trees in particular exhibiting growth suppression (rather than release) following neighboring tree mortality. In addition to small size, growth-suppression was more likely if the dead neighbor was the same species, consistent with facilitative effects as mediated through belowground networks. At the stand level, the average growth release after nearest neighbor mortality was greatest in low-density stands with large trees, with elevation and community composition also playing a role. Decades more monitoring could reveal how long growth release (or suppression) is sustained by individual trees following neighboring mortality events, as well as potential response lags and the role of species identity in determining whether interactions with neighbors are competitive or facilitative. Nonetheless, our results suggest that although mature trees have competitive effects on their larger neighbors, they also have an important role in supporting the ingrowth of small trees. More broadly, we demonstrate that the nature of interactions between individual neighboring trees is highly context dependent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Water foraging with dynamic roots in E3SM; The role of roots in terrestrial ecosystem memory on intermediate timescales (Final Technical Report)

Terrestrial ecosystems can show sustained responses to stress events that may last for years after the initial perturbation. This phenomenon is referred to as legacy or memory and it emerges from a set of ecosystem processes that are poorly captured by Earth System and Land Surface Models. Consequently, these models struggle to predict the impact that extreme climate events have on surface energy, carbon and hydrological exchange once a stressor such as drought has relaxed or in response to repeated exposure to stress. In this project, we set out to test how the addition of dynamic root profiles in land surface models impact the capacity for Earth System Models, such as the Department of Energy’s E3SM, to capture realistic legacy effects. Observations have shown that vegetation shifts their root profiles during stress events to forage for water and these altered root profiles may take years to relax back to the initial state. We hypothesized that the alteration of the belowground root structures may be a source of terrestrial ecosystem legacy that is missing from models. To test this idea we undertook three core activities. (1) We developed a global-scale analysis of the impact of dynamic roots on ecosystem legacy building from a recently developed dynamic root module. (2) We developed new root dynamics in the DOE’s Energy Land Model (ELM) that allowed not only root profiles to shift their profile but also simultaneously alter carbon allocation to fine root pools. We then tested the impact of these new dynamics with intensive sensitivity analysis at four long-term AmeriFlux sites. (3) We undertook detailed isotopic analysis of tree rings from these AmeriFlux sites to assess ecophysiological and ecohydrological legacy to stress events that can be used to benchmark the sensitivity experiments with ELM. From these core activities, we report the following key findings. Firstly, on a global scale, the addition of dynamic roots led to chronically water-stressed ecosystems recovering faster to climate stress while wetter ecosystem showed enhanced legacy. This is because across ecosystems, stress events were almost universally associated with water shortages that led to the development of deeper root profiles. These deeper root profiles proved beneficial for recovery from drought stress. While the root dynamics did not universally improve the modeled representation of legacy it showed complex transient dynamics that emerge from the addition of dynamic roots. Secondly, the sensitivity analysis illustrated long term shifts in rooting depths away from the prescribed default profile suggesting that initializing of root profiles could benefit from spin-up simulations that converge on locally optimized root profiles. In addition, by enabling dynamic allocation some of the sites predicted unrealistically low allocation to roots (and high allocation to leaves). While these changes did not dramatically alter modeled gross primary productivity, they illustrated that without more sophisticated root processes in models, there is little penalty to dramatically disinvest in roots. Thirdly, the isotopic analysis of tree rings showed highly distinct legacy responses across species and sites. For example, T. canadensis showed reduced transpiration the year after stress events illustrated by sustained elevated $\delta^{18}$O. In contrast, A saccharum displayed elevated $\delta^{13}$C associated with reduced stomatal conductance in response to the previous years’ stress event. These geochemical signatures of legacy were present despite tree growth returning to normal the year after the stress. The results show the importance of species-level dynamics in legacy that are absent in modeling that assumes common traits within plant functional types. In summary, the work here established new avenues to explore root dynamics in models while illustrating how additional root processes are needed before dynamic carbon allocation can be implemented. Lastly, this project provided mentorship to a postdoctoral fellow, training for an early career scientist and multiple undergraduate students recruited from a minority serving institution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Methodological approach to the sensitivity analysis of failure effects in modern digital I and C systems - 136

Modern I and C systems of nuclear power plants increasingly use digital equipment, software-based applications for I and C functions and different types and topologies of communication networks as well. The structure, operation and communication of digital safety-related I and C systems are strongly influenced by the implemented automatic fault detection and fault treatment procedures as barriers against failure propagation. Thus, these I and C systems can change their operating states automatically during the operation time, e.g. due to the detection and correction of certain failure types. Reasonably because of these dynamic properties of digital I and C systems the use of classical fault tree and event tree methods solely for the reliability analysis of modern I and C systems is less suitable. These methods basically apply static models and do not consider the temporal changes of the operating state of the I and C system or equipment appropriately. In this paper, a recently developed approach for the sensitivity analysis of digital I and C systems will be introduced that allows to investigate the dynamic behavior of such systems in cases of internal faults and to quantify the effects on the system reliability. The development and testing of the analysis methodology is carried out using models of generic I and C systems with different typical architectures of stepwise increased complexity. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Simulations of Forest Hurricane Disturbance and Recovery in Puerto Rico by ELM-FATES Using Field Measurements

In the past three decades, Puerto Rico (PR) experienced five hurricanes that met or exceeded category three, and they caused severe forest structural damage and elevated tree mortality. To improve our mechanistic understanding of hurricane impacts on tropical forests and assess hurricane-affected forest dynamics in Earth system models, we use in situ forest measurements at the Bisley Experimental Watersheds in Northeast PR to evaluate the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES). The observations show that before Hurricane Hugo, 77.3% of the aboveground biomass (AGB) is from the shade-tolerant plant function type (PFT). The Hugo-induced mortality rates are over ~50%, and they induce a ~39% AGB reduction, which recovers to a level like the pre-Hugo condition in 2014, following a second, lower intensity hurricane, Georges. We perform numerical experiments that simulate damage from Hugo and Georges on the forests, including defoliation, sapwood and structural biomass damage, and hurricane-induced mortality. ELM-FATES can reasonably represent coexistence between the two PFTs–light-demanding and shade-tolerant–for both the pre-Hugo and post-Hugo conditions. The model represents a reasonable size distribution of mid-and large-sized trees although it underestimates AGB, likely due to the overestimated nonhurricane mortality. ELM-FATES temporarily stimulated leaf biomass and diameter increment after Georges, an effect that should be tested with observations of future hurricane defoliation events. This research indicates that addressing model-data mismatches in tree mortality and understory dynamics are essential to simulation of more extreme hurricane effects under climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Reviews and syntheses: Australian vegetation phenology: new insights from satellite remote sensing and digital repeat photography

Phenology is the study of periodic biological occurrences and can provide important insights into the influence of climatic variability and change on ecosystems. Understanding Australia's vegetation phenology is a challenge due to its diverse range of ecosystems, from savannas and tropical rainforests to temperate eucalypt woodlands, semi-arid scrublands, and alpine grasslands. These ecosystems exhibit marked differences in seasonal patterns of canopy development and plant life-cycle events, much of which deviates from the predictable seasonal phenological pulse of temperate deciduous and boreal biomes. Many Australian ecosystems are subject to irregular events (i.e. drought, flooding, cyclones, and fire) that can alter ecosystem composition, structure, and functioning just as much as seasonal change. We show how satellite remote sensing and ground-based digital repeat photography (i.e. phenocams) can be used to improve understanding of phenology in Australian ecosystems. First, we examine temporal variation in phenology on the continental scale using the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), calculated from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. Spatial gradients are revealed, ranging from regions with pronounced seasonality in canopy development (i.e. tropical savannas) to regions where seasonal variation is minimal (i.e. tropical rainforests) or high but irregular (i.e. arid ecosystems). Next, we use time series colour information extracted from phenocam imagery to illustrate a range of phenological signals in four contrasting Australian ecosystems. These include greening and senescing events in tropical savannas and temperate eucalypt understorey, as well as strong seasonal dynamics of individual trees in a seemingly static evergreen rainforest. We also demonstrate how phenology links with ecosystem gross primary productivity (from eddy covariance) and discuss why these processes are linked in some ecosystems but not others. We conclude that phenocams have the potential to greatly improve the current understanding of Australian ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

RISK-INFORMED EXTERNAL HAZARDS ANALYSIS BY EEVE TOOLKIT

Introducing risk-informed safety analyses for external events can bring sensible benefits to the nuclear power industry easing the regulatory burden introduced in the aftermath of the Fukushima accident. In the framework of the US-DOE Light-Water Reactor Sustainability program, Risk-Informed Margin Characterization project (LWRS-RISMC), research activities were conducted at INL for developing and applying a toolkit for performing risk-informed external hazards analysis. The “EEVE” (External EVEnts) toolkit, a chain of INL and state-of-the-art codes, was set-up and applied for simulating earthquake-induced transients with internal flooding in a PWR. This was done using methodology set-up for evaluating new data and determining critical areas that would benefit most from advanced analysis methods. The methodology is agnostic and it can be applied to other external hazards than just seismic and flooding (e.g., high winds, intense precipitation, etc.). The first step was the deterministic calculations for evaluating the propagation of a set of earthquakes and for determining the effects on a fire suppression system in an auxiliary building. These deterministic calculations were performed using the LS-DYNA and the OPENSEE structural mechanics codes. Probability failures and event trees of a generic 3-loops Westinghouse PWR were derived from a generic SAPHIRE model. Seismically induced Loss of Offsite Power, Station Blackout, and fire suppression piping failure events were considered. SAPHIRE code allowed a pre-screening of all possible branches of the event tree and a selection of those with the largest Core Damage Frequency increase for further analysis using dynamic PRA methods. INL's EMRALD code performed dynamic PRA calculations of the identified sequences, integrating risk analysis with on-line deterministic safety analysis results (seismically-induced internal flooding calculations by NEUTRINO code and system analysis by RELAP5-3D code). RELAP5-3D Best-Estimate calculations coupled with RAVEN statistical code were used for deriving limit surfaces as function of relevant transient parameters. This data was used by EMRALD for determining the final core status (core damage/core safe). Finally, the coupling of seismic, flooding, system thermal-hydraulic, uncertainty quantification and probabilistic risk analysis for an advanced risk-informed external hazards analysis was demonstrated. Results showed the sensible decrease in the level of conservatism achieved using the developed risk-informed methodology, which allowed also improving the evaluation of the failure modes and failure probabilities of different components.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Roles for epigenetics in wood formation and stress response intrees–from basic biology to forest management

Annual model and crop species have been the subject of most epigenetic studies for plants. In contrast to annuals, forest trees persist on natural landscapes and experience environmental variation within and across seasons, years, and decades or even centuries. Most forest trees species are undomesticated and typically grown on variable landscapes with no irrigation or application of agricultural chemicals. Forest trees must thus rely on their inherent ability to alter growth and physiology to mitigate the effects of changing abiotic and biotic stressors. Like other plants, trees have mechanisms encoded in their genomic DNA sequence that can respond directly to stress events such as drought or heat. Hypothetically, it would be highly advantageous to join these mechanisms with a dynamic “memory” of past exposure to stress. It is now well established that annual model and crop plants can establish epigenetic-based memory of stress events that support more rapid and robust response to stress in the future. Here, evidence is discussed for epigenetic regulation and “memory” in two fundamental biological processes in trees, wood formation and abiotic stress response. Wood formation is an ideal trait for epigenetic research in trees, as wood formation is highly responsive to environmental conditions and includes multiple rapid developmental changes as cells adopt distinct fates within complex tissues. This is followed by a discussion of research needs that would provide the foundation for new epigenetic applications for forestry.

Groover, Andrew↗
DOE OSTI2020

Safety Risk Reliability Model Library

SR2ML is a software package which contains a set of safety and reliability models designed to be interfaced with the INL developed RAVEN code. These models can be employed to perform both static and dynamic system risk analysis and determine risk importance of specific elements of the considered system. Two classes of reliability models have been developed; the first class includes all classical reliability models (Fault-Trees, Event-Trees, Markov models and Reliability Block Diagrams) which have been extended to deal not only with Boolean logic values but also time dependent values. The second class includes several components aging models. Models of these two classes are designed to be included in a RAVEN ensemble model to perform time dependent system reliability analysis (dynamic analysis). Similarly, these models can be interfaced with system analysis codes to determine failure time of systems and evaluate accident progression (static analysis).

Wang, Congjian↗
DOE OSTI2025

AUTOMATIC GENERATION OF EVENT TREES AND FAULT TREES: A MODEL-BASED APPROACH

In the past few decades, increasing complexity in modern engineering systems has been driven by the integration of a large number of components and by the fact that the system operations involve many disciplines (e.g., thermal-hydraulics, plant operations, cyber-security). Current safety/reliability modeling approaches to such systems are labor intensive, difficult to learn, and rely heavily on simplistic Boolean logic to depict failure propagation and accident progression. While these methods serve well for simple systems (i.e., linear causal systems with limited small inter- and intra-system interactions), their results are difficult to verify when modeling complex systems (typically performed through the extensive use of modeling assumptions). The development of new methods is addressed to meet these challenges through a model-based system engineering (MBSE) lens. Under MBSE philosophy, every aspect of the system (form or function) is represented by a model that completely characterizes its architecture or behavior. MBSE approach greatly improves the management of design, analysis and verification of complex systems. An integration of Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DPRA) methods with MBSE models is proposed to perform safety/reliability analyses of engineering systems. In particular, MBSE representation of the system (performed using Systems Modeling Language [SysML]) is coupled with DPRA methods to automatically generate event trees and fault trees.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment and game theory for cyber security risk analysis in nuclear power plants

Nuclear Power Plants and energy systems have become more prone to cyber-attacks with their digitalization and the increased use of smart equipment. Hence, it is important to quantify the risk associated with cyber-attacks in such systems. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment which involves studying the evolution of a system due to random events and operator and attacker actions during a cyber-attack by employing a physics-based model of the system is a suitable framework to quantify cybersecurity risk in nuclear power plants. In addition to the plant dynamics, it is also important to model the strategies of the attackers and plant operators for an effective cybersecurity risk assessment. Game theory provides a set of necessary tools to model such strategic interactions. In this research, a framework that integrates dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with game theory for cybersecurity risk analysis in nuclear power plants is presented. The mathematical formulation is derived based on the theory of continuous event trees. We propose a game theory based action model, that utilizes physics-based rewards to define the strategies of attackers and operators at every decision epoch. As a case study, the risk associated with cyber-attacks on the digital components in the secondary side of a pressurized water reactor is studied using a reduced order model. A set of attacker actions and a set of operator actions are defined for the system. The operator and attacker interactions were modelled using simultaneous game, their action policies were computed using the concept of mixed strategy Nash equilibrium and the evolution of the system was studied.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

RISK MONITORING CAPABILITES FROM DYNAMIC PRA DATA

Risk Monitors (RMs) are software tools that are employed in nuclear power plants to monitor the safety properties of the plant itself during operation. These safety properties are generated using classical PRA methods which are typically based on static Boolean structures such as Fault-Trees (FTs) and Event-Trees (ETs). The outcomes of these methods are Core Damage Frequency (CDF) and risk importance values of plant components (e.g., valves and pumps). Examples of Risk Importance Measures (RIMs) commonly used are: Risk Achievement Worth (RAW), Risk Reduction Worth (RRW), Birnbaum (B) and Fussell-Vesely (FV) [1,2]. In a RM these values are updated in real time once plant components status is updated (e.g., under maintenance, off-line, testing). In addition, RMs can be used to optimize maintenance schedules so those safety features of the plant are below plant standard values. This paper presents an approach to create temporal profiles of RIMs (i.e., RM capabilities) given a temporal change of the plant configuration. Instead of employing data generated by ETs and FTs, the proposed approach will employ data generated by Dynamic PRA methods. In contrast to classical PRA methods, Dynamic PRA methods couple stochastic methods with safety analysis codes to determine risk associate to complex systems such as nuclear plants. Compared to classical PRA methods, they can evaluate with higher resolution the safety impact of timing and sequencing of events on the accident progression. We will describe how classical RIMs can be generated by Dynamic PRA data and then we will show how the temporal profiles of the RIMs can be generated given a temporal profile of the system configuration.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Vulnerability of Amazon forests to storm-driven tree mortality

Tree mortality is a key driver of forest community composition and carbon dynamics. Strong winds associated with severe convective storms are dominant natural drivers of tree mortality in the Amazon. Why forests vary with respect to their vulnerability to wind events and how the predicted increase in storm events might affect forest ecosystems within the Amazon are not well understood. We found that windthrows are common in the Amazon region extending from northwest (Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, and west Brazil) to central Brazil, with the highest occurrence of windthrows in the northwest Amazon. More frequent winds, produced by more frequent severe convective systems, in combination with well-known processes that limit the anchoring of trees in the soil, help to explain the higher vulnerability of the northwest Amazon forests to winds. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of convective storms in the Amazon have the potential to increase wind-related tree mortality. A forest demographic model calibrated for the northwestern and the central Amazon showed that northwestern forests are more resilient to increased wind-related tree mortality than forests in the central Amazon. Our study emphasizes the importance of including wind-related tree mortality in model simulations for reliable predictions of the future of tropical forests and their effects on the Earth' system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Compound fire-drought regimes promote ecosystem transitions in Mediterranean ecosystems

Understanding ecosystem responses to compound disturbance regimes and the influence of specific sequences of events in determining ecosystem shifts remains a challenge. We use a modelling framework for Mediterranean-type ecosystems to assess the effects of fire–drought interactions on long-term vegetation dynamics and to identify disturbance-driven changes in trait composition (tree seeder vs. tree resprouter prevalence) and ecosystem state (forest vs. non-forest). Changes in tree seeder and the tree resprouter dominance show nonlinear, threshold-type trends over gradients of increasing compound disturbance frequency. Vegetation composition thresholds mostly occur in a narrow range of the compound fire–drought disturbance space. Additionally, trait compositional switches and the likelihood of sudden changes in ecosystem state are promoted by fire-drought interactions. Distinct sequences of disturbance events cause vegetation transitions, disrupting ecosystem resilience, even under moderate recurrence of individual disturbances. An extreme drought year followed by one or two large fire events promotes shifts from resprouter- to seeder dominance. Contrastingly, a large crown fire followed by an extreme drought promotes changes from seeder to resprouter dominance. This disturbance sequence is also a mechanism strong enough to trigger sudden shifts in ecosystem state (from forest to non-forest). Synthesis. Thresholds of change in vegetation composition occur over a narrow range of the modelled gradients of compound fire-drought recurrence, and the loss of ecosystem resilience is contingent on particular sequences of disturbance events. Overall, our findings highlight that disturbance interactions define the relative location of tipping points in ecosystem state, and that effects and feedbacks of compound disturbance regimes increase the long-term likelihood of sudden ecosystem shifts and, therefore, uncertainty in predicting vegetation state.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗