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At least 55 records · Page 3

Prediction of Adverse Events in Time Series Data Using ACCEPT (Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox)

Abstract:An open-source toolbox called ACCEPT (Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox) that operates from within the Matlab programming environment is introduced. The toolbox provides an open source, special-purpose functionality that can be used specifically for the prediction or forecasting of adverse events in time series data. It also provides a single, unifying framework in which to compare a variety of combinations of algorithmic approaches addressing this problem. The architectural framework also offers the flexibility for expansion to accommodate the newest, latest popular regression and detection methods for this particular problem, enabling the development of an infrastructure that can act as a proving ground platform for comparing new techniques to the state of the art. As such, its intention is to act as a catalyst in advancing the state of the art in technologies related to this problem. There are a variety of other toolboxes that offer similar capabilities and features, however they are either more suitable as general purpose machine learning toolboxes or are only available commercially or through agreements. ACCEPT fills that niche by offering visibility into a specific approach for addressing the adverse event prediction problem.

programming environments↗

Multimodal photon and neutron imaging devices with fast event-by-event multisampling readout and optimized particle type discrimination

A particle imaging method for distinguishing between types of incident particles, such as neutrons, photons, and alphas, and improving the position resolution of particle imaging devices with matrix readout. The method includes high frequency multisampling readout electronics that provides the sequences of multiple measurements for each detected event, resulting in recorded detailed waveform information describing the signals. Such detailed information is used to approximate each signal waveform with a parameterized function in which the extracted parameter sets determine the type of the incident particle in an optimized fashion. The detailed event-by-event multisampling information for each signal readout channel in the matrix readout of the radiation imaging devices improves and optimizes the position resolution for variable shapes of the signals. Such devices can be used in mixed radiation fields, creating a new class of multimodal photon and neutron imagers.

Degtiarenko, Pavel V.↗

Re-Verification of the IRHN57133SE and IRHN57250SE for Single Event Gate Rupture and Single Event Burnout

The vertical metal oxide semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET) is a widely used power transistor onboard a spacecraft. The MOSFET is typically employed in power supplies and high current switching applications. Due to the inherent high electric fields in the device, power MOSFETs are sensitive to heavy ion irradiation and can fail catastrophically as a result of single event gate rupture (SEGR) or single event burnout (SEB). Manufacturers have designed radiation-hardened power MOSFETs for space applications. These radiation hardened devices are not immune to SEGR or SEB but, rather, can exhibit them at a much more damaging ion than their non-radiation hardened counterparts. See [1] through [5] for more information.This effort was to investigate the SEGR and SEB responses of two power MOSFETs from IR(the IRHN57133SE and the IRHN57250SE) that have recently been produced on a new fabrication line. These tests will serve as a limited verification of these parts, but it is acknowledged that further testing on the respective parts may be needed for some mission profiles.

Single Event Gate Rupture (SEGR)↗

First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. VIII. Magnetic Field Structure near The Event Horizon

Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations at 230 GHz have now imaged polarized emission around the supermassive black hole in M87 on event-horizon scales. This polarized synchrotron radiation probes the structure of magnetic fields and the plasma properties near the black hole. Here we compare the resolved polarization structure observed by the EHT, along with simultaneous unresolved observations with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array, to expectations from theoretical models. The low fractional linear polarization in the resolved image suggests that the polarization is scrambled on scales smaller than the EHT beam, which we attribute to Faraday rotation internal to the emission region. We estimate the average density n_e of order 10^4-7 cm-3, magnetic field strength B of order 1-30 G, and electron temperature Te of order (1-12) x 10^10 K of the radiating plasma in a simple one-zone emission model. We show that the net azimuthal linear polarization pattern may result from organized, poloidal magnetic fields in the emission region. In a quantitative comparison with a large library of simulated polarimetric images from general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations, we identify a subset of physical models that can explain critical features of the polarimetric EHT observations while producing a relativistic jet of sufficient power. The consistent GRMHD models are all of magnetically arrested accretion disks, where near-horizon magnetic fields are dynamically important. We use the models to infer a mass accretion rate onto the black hole in M87 of (3-20) x 10^-4 Msun yr-1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Anticipating how rain-on-snow events will change through the 21st century: lessons from the 1997 new year’s flood event

The California-Nevada 1997 New Year’s flood was an atmospheric river (AR)-driven rain-on-snow (RoS) event and remains the costliest in their history. The joint occurrence of saturated soils, rainfall, and snowmelt generated inundation throughout northern California-Nevada. Although AR RoS events are projected to occur more frequently with climate change, the warming sensitivity of their flood drivers across scales remains understudied. We leverage the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood with horizontal grid spacings of 3.5 km across California, with forecast lead times of up to 4 days, and across six warming levels ranging from pre-industrial conditions to +3.5° C. We describe the sensitivity of the flood drivers to warming including AR duration and intensity, precipitation phase, intensity and efficiency, snowpack mass and energy changes, and runoff efficiency. Our findings indicate current levels of climate change negligibly influence the flood drivers. At warming levels ≥ 1.7° C, AR hazard potential increases, snowpack nonlinearly decreases, antecedent soil moisture decreases (except where the snowline retreats), and runoff decreases (except in the southern Sierra Nevada where antecedent snowpack persists). Storm total precipitation increases, but at rates below warming-induced increases in saturation-specific humidity. Warming intensifies short-duration, high-intensity rainfall, particularly where snowfall-to-rainfall transitions occur. This study highlights the nonlinear tradeoffs in 21st-century RoS flood hazards with warming and provides water management and infrastructure investment adaptation considerations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulations of Events for the LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) Dark Matter Experiment

The LUX-ZEPLIN dark matter search aims to achieve a sensitivity to the WIMP-nucleon spin-independent cross-section down to (1–2) ×10−12 pb at a WIMP mass of 40 GeV/ c 2 . This paper describes the simulations framework that, along with radioactivity measurements, was used to support this projection, and also to provide mock data for validating reconstruction and analysis software. Of particular note are the event generators, which allow us to model the background radiation, and the detector response physics used in the production of raw signals, which can be converted into digitized waveforms similar to data from the operational detector. Inclusion of the detector response allows us to process simulated data using the same analysis routines as developed to process the experimental data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Accident event progression, gaps, and key performance indicators for steam generator tube rupture events in water-cooled SMRs: A review

According to historical records of reactor-related incidents, a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) is one of the most common occurrences at operating pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Such design-basis accidents (DBAs) could lead to a direct path for radionuclides to be released to the atmosphere via the safety and relief valves, making assessments of radionuclide discharge from operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) into the environment crucial for ensuring safety. In such analyses, the primary focus has been on the extent of radioactive release, not the potential damage to the core. Moreover, significant and timely intervention by operators is needed during the initial stages of SGTRs in order to avert overfilling of the SGs, as well as to restrict the dissemination of radioactive materials. Determining the event sequence and phases that occur during an SGTR incident in an advanced passive (e.g., AP1000) water-cooled nuclear reactor is crucial for implementing effective passive safety systems (PSSs) for a specific water-cooled small modular reactor (SMR) design. Here this study provides a comprehensive review of the accident event progression, associated physical phenomena, knowledge gaps, and key performance indicators that must be evaluated and assessed in thermal-hydraulics models, based on relevant test data, respectively.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Investigating ultrafine aerosol turbulent fluxes during atmospheric new particle formation events

New particle formation (NPF) is an important source of atmospheric aerosols, yet quantitatively predicting its occurrence remains challenging, partly because ground-based measurements cannot capture NPF accurately if they occur in the upper atmosphere. While observations have confirmed the presence of new particles near the top of the planetary boundary layer (PBL), their origins and the direction of their vertical transport have remained ambiguous. Here, we propose and validate an analytical framework using airborne eddy-covariance (EC) and continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to directly quantify the vertical flux of newly formed particles and determine its dominant vertical transportation direction. Analyzing data from a dedicated airborne campaign over the Southern Great Plains, we observed a persistent and strong downward particle flux during NPF events, with a mean value of 133.8 cm?3 m s?¹ downward flux in the entrainment zone, whereas fluxes on non-NPF days were negligible. Our spectral analysis further confirms that these directional fluxes can be reliably captured using standard 1 Hz aerosol instrumentation. These findings suggest that new particle formation, driven by the entrainment of air from the overlying residual/stable layer during PBL growth, is a significant and potentially understudied source of boundary layer aerosols. The framework presented here provides a methodology to correctly attribute NPF events to specific altitudes, thereby improving the mechanistic understanding required for accurate atmospheric models.

Zhang, Ruoyu↗

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Propagation of Summer Extreme Precipitation Events over United States: A Complex Network Analysis

Complex Network (CN) is a graph-theory based depiction of relation shared by various elements of a complex-dynamical system such as the atmosphere. Here we applied the concept of CN to understand the directionality and topological structure of summer extreme precipitation events (SEPEs) over the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SEPEs are calculated based on the 95th percentile daily rainfall at 0.5ox0.5o spatial resolution for CONUS to investigate the multi-dimensional characteristics of precipitation extremes. The derived CN coefficients (e.g., betweenness centrality, clustering coefficient, orientation, and network divergence) reveal important structural and dynamical information about the topology of the SEPEs and improve understanding of the dominant meteorological patterns. The initiation and propagation of SEPEs from the source-zones to the sink-zones are identified. The SEPEs are influenced by topography, dominant wind patterns, and moisture sources in terms of their topological structure and spatial dynamics.

Mondal, Somnath↗

Event-driven readout development: testing of the EDWARD65P1 chip with integrated event generators

Building on a prototype readout integrated circuit for segmented silicon sensors with the EDWARD event-driven readout architecture, the front-end in each pixel was replaced by a hardware generator to verify readout performance, ensuring no data loss, consistent priority handling, and speed verification. Here, this generator produces Poisson-distributed readout requests with individually tunable rates per pixel via a digitally controlled oscillator. The resulting EDWARD65P1 test ASIC is a 32×32 pixel matrix with a 100 μm pitch, equipped with digital event generators simulating radiation hits at user-defined rates. Test results for this new design are presented.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Event-by-event direction reconstruction of solar neutrinos in a high light-yield liquid scintillator

The direction of individual B 8 solar neutrinos has been reconstructed using the SNO + liquid scintillator detector. Prompt, directional Cherenkov light was separated from the slower, isotropic scintillation light using time information, and a maximum likelihood method was used to reconstruct the direction of individual scattered electrons. A clear directional signal was observed, correlated with the solar angle. The observation was aided by a period of low primary fluor concentration that resulted in a slower scintillator decay time. This is the first time that event-by-event direction reconstruction in high light-yield liquid scintillator has been demonstrated in a large-scale detector. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Probing Strangeness Hadronization with Event-by-Event Production of Multistrange Hadrons

This Letter presents the first measurement of event-by-event fluctuations of the net number (difference between the particle and antiparticle multiplicities) of multistrange hadrons Ξ − and $\overline{Ξ}$ + and its correlation with the net-kaon number using the data collected by the ALICE Collaboration in pp, p-Pb, and Pb-Pb collisions at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV. The statistical hadronization model with a correlation over three units of rapidity between hadrons having the same and opposite strangeness content successfully describes the results. On the other hand, string-fragmentation models that mainly correlate strange hadrons with opposite strange quark content over a small rapidity range fail to describe the data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Precision spectroscopy of fast, hot, exotic isotopes using machine-learning-assisted event-by-event Doppler correction

We propose an experimental scheme for performing sensitive, high-precision laser spectroscopy studies on fast exotic isotopes. By inducing a stepwise resonant ionization of the atoms traveling inside an electric field and subsequently detecting the ion and the corresponding electron, time-, and position-sensitive measurements of the resulting particles can be performed. Using a mixture density network, we can leverage this information to predict the initial energy of individual atoms and thus apply a Doppler correction of the observed transition frequencies on an event-by-event basis. We conduct numerical simulations of the proposed experimental scheme and show that kHz-level uncertainties can be achieved for ion beams produced at extreme temperatures ( > 10 8 K), with energy spreads as large as 10 keV and nonuniform velocity distributions. The ability to perform in-flight spectroscopy, directly on highly energetic beams, offers unique opportunities to study short-lived isotopes with lifetimes in the millisecond range and below, produced in low quantities, in hot and highly contaminated environments, without the need for cooling techniques. Such species are of marked interest for nuclear structure, astrophysics, and new physics searches. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Udrescu, S. M. (ORCID:000000021989576X)↗

Use of Event-Time Embeddings via RNN to Discern Novel Event Sequences in EHRs

In highly configurable health information technology (HIT) systems, such as VistA of the Veterans Health Administration, the variations in how the system is used among different healthcare facilities and how the data are recorded can be significant. Despite the successful standardization of care efforts, some of these variations can be indicative of HIT hazards and demand further investigation. In this work, we implemented a recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture to learn clinical provider order sequences and their temporal dynamics while predicting the orders' terminal state. We demonstrate model performance and provide a use case for the model discerning novel event sequences. This model is proposed to find novel event sequences in an operational environment.

Ozmen, Ozgur↗

The Influence of Extremely Large Solar Proton Events in a Changing Stratosphere. Stratospheric Influence of Solar Proton Events

Two periods of extremely large solar proton events (SPEs) occurred in the past thirty years, which forced significant long-term polar stratospheric changes. The August 2-10, 1972 and October 19-27, 1989 SPEs happened in stratospheres that were quite different chemically. The stratospheric chlorine levels were relatively small in 1972 (approximately 1.2 ppbv) and were fairly substantial in 1989 at about (approximately 3 ppbv). Although these SPEs produced both HO(x) and NO(y) constituents in the mesosphere and stratosphere, only the NO(y) constituents had lifetimes long enough to affect ozone for several months to years past the events. Our recently improved two-dimensional chemistry and transport atmospheric model was used to compute the effects of these gigantic SPEs in a changing stratosphere. Significant upper stratospheric ozone depletions > 10% are computed to last for a few months past these SPEs. The long-lived SPE-produced NO(y) constituents were transported to lower levels during winter after these huge SPEs and caused impacts in the middle and lower stratosphere. During periods of high halogen loading these impacts resulted in interference with the chlorine and bromine loss cycles for ozone destruction. The chemical state of the atmosphere, including the stratospheric sulfate aerosol density, substantially affected the predicted stratospheric influence of these extremely large SPEs.

Jackman, Charles H.↗

The Solar Wind Depletion (SWD) event of 26 April 1999: Triggering of an auroral pseudobreakup event

The interplanetary solar wind depletion (SWD) event of 26 April 1999 and its magnetospheric consequences are examined. The SWD event is characterized by a solar wind density decrease from [similar to] 3.0 to 0.7 cm(sup -3) leading to a solar wind ram pressure decrease from [similar to] 2.0 to 0.2 nPa. This SWD onset is followed by a dipolarization of nightside magnetospheric fields.

Megnetic fields auroral pseudobreakup↗

Conjunction Assessment Screening Volume Sizing and Event Filtering in Light of Natural Conjunction Event Development Behaviors

Conjunction Assessment screening volumes used in the protection of NASA satellites are constructed as geometric volumes about these satellites, of a size expected to capture a certain percentage of the serious conjunction events by a certain time before closest approach. However, the analyses that established these sizes were grounded on covariance-based projections rather than empirical screening results, did not tailor the volume sizes to ensure operational actionability of those results, and did not consider the adjunct ability to produce data that could provide prevenient assistance for maneuver planning. The present study effort seeks to reconsider these questions based on a six-month dataset of empirical screening results using an extremely large screening volume. The results, pursued here for a highly-populated orbit regime near 700 km altitude, identify theoretical limits of screening volume performance, explore volume configuration to facilitate both maneuver remediation planning as well as basic asset protection, and recommend sizing principles that maximize volume performance while minimizing the capture of "chaff" conjunctions that are unlikely ever to become serious events.

screening volume↗

Single-Event Gate Rupture and Single-Event Burnout Test Results Performed on Hi-Rel Fuji Power MOSFETs: 2SK4217, 2SK4152, 2SK4155, and 2SK4158

Several newly available Hi-Rel total dose hardened power MOSFETs manufactured by Fuji Electric Device Technology Co. Ltd (FDT) in conjunction with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) were tested for single-event gate rupture (SEGR) and single-event burnout (SEB). The safe-operating area (SOA) of the 2SK4217 (a 100 V rated device), 2SK4152 (130 V), 2SK4155 (200 V), and the 2SK4158 (250 V) were tested with silver (Ag) and xenon (Xe) ions having incident LETs of 42.2 and 53.1 MeV cm2/mg, respectively. Test results show these devices are comparable to currently available total dose hardened technology.

Selva, Luis E.↗