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At least 55 records · Page 3

Disjunctive optimization model and algorithm for long-term capacity expansion planning of reliable power generation systems

This paper proposes a new optimization model and algorithm for long-term capacity expansion planning of reliable power generation systems. The model optimizes both investment decisions (e.g., size, location, and time to install, retire and decommission facilities) and operation decisions (e.g., on/off status, operating capacity, and expected power output). It is also able to optimize reserve systems (or backup systems), as well as the main systems, to improve power systems reliability. An impact of operational strategies of generators (i.e., participating in electricity production vs. remaining as idle units during operation) on power systems reliability is considered. Probability of equipment failures and capacity failure states are used to rigorously estimate the power systems reliability depending on design and operation strategies. The optimization model is formulated with Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP), which is reformulated as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model using the Hull relaxation. Two reliability-related penalties, such as downtime penalty and unmet demand penalty, are included in the objective function to maximize reliability while minimizing the total net present cost. Furthermore, a bilevel decomposition with tailored cuts is developed to reduce computational times of the multi-scale optimization model. The effectiveness of the proposed model is shown by comparing the results with the results obtained from the expansion planning models that do not explicitly consider reliability. In conclusion, we also show that the proposed bilevel decomposition is computationally efficient for solving large scale problems through 5-years and 10-years planning case studies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Poor reliability of public charging stations can impede the growth of the electric vehicle market

How does the reliability of public charging infrastructure affect electric vehicle (EV) adoption? Substantial public and private investments are expanding EV charging networks, but concerns are growing about the poor reliability of existing chargers and its potential impacts on EV adoption. Using data from a nationwide survey, we employ a choice model to quantify the effects of perceived charging reliability on Americans’ intentions to purchase new or used EVs. By randomly assigning participants to receive information characterizing public charging as either very reliable or very unreliable, we show a causal effect of reliability perceptions on EV purchase intentions. In conclusion, we find that differences in perceived reliability are equivalent to changing price by 32 % of purchasing budget or changing range by 366 miles, underscoring the importance of reliable public charging.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Extending Component Lifetime And Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)

Inverter reliability remains one of the most persistent challenges limiting the performance, availability, and economic viability of utility‑scale photovoltaic (PV) plants. Industry data consistently show that inverters account for the highest share of corrective maintenance events and unplanned outages across PV fleets. These failures result in energy losses, increased O&M costs, and reduced confidence in long‑term solar asset performance. Motivated by these challenges, this project—Extending Component Lifetime and Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)—was undertaken to systematically investigate inverter degradation and failure mechanisms, develop predictive maintenance capabilities, and establish data‑driven pathways to improve service life and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for large‑scale PV systems. The primary goal of the project was to identify pre‑failure signatures in string inverters using both lab‑based accelerated lifetime testing and field‑based data and to develop predictive maintenance algorithms that can anticipate inverter faults before they occur. Through collaboration with inverter testing laboratory, solar PV plant owner, and failure‑analysis experts, the project advanced the technical understanding of inverter reliability. By instrumenting inverters with thermistors, humidity sensors, power‑quality meters, and acoustic sensors, the research established how multiple sensing modalities can reliably detect deviations from normal behavior hours to days before failure. These findings substantially enhance scientific understanding of inverter failure kinetics and provide the PV industry with the most comprehensive cross‑OEM characterization of early‑stage failure indicators reported to date. Technically, the project demonstrated the effectiveness of predictive maintenance by developing and validating the PreDICT (Predictive Diagnostics of PV Inverters Using Condition Monitoring and Trend Analysis) framework—a multi‑layer diagnostic architecture combining peer‑to‑peer analytics, historical trend modeling, and advanced machine‑learning techniques such as the Sequential Conditional Variational Autoencoder (SCVAE). This predictive model achieved more than 90% accuracy in detecting pre‑failure conditions and provided up to four days of lead time before inverter failure in field scenarios. Economically, the project’s LCOE analysis showed that predictive maintenance can reduce lifetime energy losses and minimize corrective maintenance interventions. Modeling indicated that, depending on inverter failure rates and replacement timelines, predictive maintenance can significantly reduce LCOE impacts associated with inverter downtime: from as high as 19.4% under conventional maintenance strategies to 0.1%–10.17% when predictive analytics are adopted. These results confirm that predictive maintenance is both technically feasible and economically advantageous for utilities and plant operators. The project’s findings also have broad public benefit. By improving inverter reliability and reducing downtime, predictive maintenance directly increases electricity generation from existing PV assets. Enhanced reliability lowers operational costs for utilities, which can translate over time into lower energy costs for consumers. Furthermore, the project’s technical publications, conference presentations, and industry workshops ensure that knowledge gained is shared broadly across the solar industry, supporting workforce development and enabling utilities of all sizes to adopt modern asset‑health monitoring practices. The retrofitting case study and service‑life prediction framework further support informed decision‑making for aging PV fleets, helping operators extend system life and reduce electronic waste. In summary, the ECLAIIR project significantly advanced the state of knowledge on inverter degradation, demonstrated the technical and economic value of predictive maintenance, and delivered actionable tools and insights that support more reliable, cost‑effective, and sustainable PV plant operation. The outcomes of this project will continue to inform utility practices, guide inverter design improvements, and strengthen the long‑term performance of solar assets nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Application of Orthogonal Defect Classification for Software Reliability Analysis

The modernization of existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) is a recent and highly trending topic. However, there lacks strong consensus on best-estimate reliability methodologies by both the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the industry. This has resulted in hesitation for further modernization projects until a more unified methodology is realized. In this work, we develop an approach called Orthogonal-defect Classification for Assessing Software Reliability (ORCAS) to quantify probabilities of various software failure modes in a DI&C system. The method utilizes accepted industry methodologies for software quality assurance that are also verified by experimental or mathematical formulations. In essence, the approach combines a semantic failure classification model with a reliability growth model to predict (and quantify) the potential failure modes of a DI&C software system. The semantic classification model is used to address the question: How do latent defects in software contribute to different software failure root causes? The use of reliability growth models is then used to address the question: Given the connection between latent defects and software failure root causes, how can we quantify the reliability of the software? A case study was conducted on a representative I&C platform (ChibiOS) running a smart sensor acquisition software developed by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU). The testing and evidence collection guidance in ORCAS was applied, and defects were uncovered in the software. Qualitative evidence, such as condition coverage, was used to gauge the completeness and trustworthiness of the assessment while quantitative evidence was used to determine the software failure probabilities. The reliability of the software was then estimated and compared to existing operational data of the sensor device. It is demonstrated that by using ORCAS, a semantic reasoning framework can be developed to justify software reliability (or unreliability) while still leveraging the strength of the existing methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DuraMAT Technology Scouting Report: Assessing Module Reliability Risks Associated with Projected Technological Changes

Maintaining the reliability of photovoltaic (PV) modules in the face of rapidly changing technology is critical to maximizing solar energy's contribution to global decarbonization. Our presentation describes expected changes in PV technology and their impacts on performance and reliability. We leverage PV market reports, interviews with PV researchers and other industry stakeholders, and peer-reviewed literature to narrow the multitude of possible changes into a manageable set of 11 impactful trends likely to be incorporated in near-term crystalline-silicon module designs. We group the trends into four categories (module architecture, interconnect technologies, bifacial modules, and cell technology) and explore the drivers behind the changes, their interactions, and associated reliability risks and benefits. Our analysis identifies specific areas that would benefit from accelerating the PV reliability learning cycle, to assess emerging module products and designs more accurately. We recommend that researchers continue tracking module technologies and their reliability implications so efforts can be focused on the most impactful trends. As the rapid technological turnover continues, it is also critical to incorporate fundamental knowledge into models that can predict module reliability. Predictive capabilities complete the PV reliability learning cycle-reducing the time required to assess new designs and mitigating the risks associated with large-scale deployment of new products.

bifacial↗

Bridging Equipment Reliability Data and Risk Informed Decisions in a Plant Operation Context

Industry equipment reliability and asset management programs are essential elements that help ensure the safe and economical operation of nuclear power plants. The effectiveness of these programs is addressed in several industry-developed and regulatory programs. The Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project is tasked to develop tools in support of the equipment reliability and asset management programs at nuclear power plants. These tools are designed to create a direct bridge between component health/lifecycle data and decision making (e.g., maintenance scheduling and project prioritization). The goal of this article is to provide a guide for specific use cases that the RIAM project is targeting. We have grouped uses cases into three main areas. The first area focuses on the analysis of equipment reliability data with a particular emphasis on condition-based data, such as test/surveillance reports and component monitoring data. The second area focuses on the integration of equipment reliability into system/plant reliability models to determine system/plant health and identify the components that are critical to maintain an operational system. Lastly, the third area manages plant resources, such as maintenance activities and replacement scheduling using optimization methods. Here the primary focus is on supporting typical system engineer decisions regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component aging management. This is performed in a risk-informed context where the term “risk” is broadly constructed to include both plant reliability and economics. This framework combines data analytics tools to analyze equipment reliability data with risk-informed methods designed to support system engineer decisions (e.g., maintenance and replacement schedules, optimal maintenance posture) in a customizable workflow.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantum-Inspired Power System Reliability Assessment

To enable an in-depth study of power system operation and planning, the assessment of standard reliability indices is inevitable. The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) approach is a broadly used method in replacing the analytical methods in reliability indices assessment. The accuracy of MCS, however, highly depends on the sampling size, and hence, a complicated system with large number of components requires a large sampling size and daunting computational effort. To address this shortcoming, we, in this paper attempt to take advantage of potentials of the quantum computing (QC) for power system reliability assessment by realizing the following contributions: 1) an innovative quantum model designed for reliability assessment; 2) a quantum circuit that achieves the quadratic speed up compared to the classical MCS method; 3) an efficient quantum amplitude estimation (QAE) algorithm to accurately evaluate the reliability indices. The accuracy and efficacy of the quantum reliability method are extensively verified and demonstrated on both radial and mesh distribution systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Reliability Analysis of Power Grids Considering Component Failures of Variable Energy Resources

This paper proposes an improved model for the reliability assessment of power systems considering component failures of variable energy resources (VER). The inherent intermittency of VER such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind farms, along with their susceptibility to component failures, present significant challenges to reliable system operation. These issues, combined with power grid operation and network constraints, complicate the reliable operation of VER-integrated power systems. Here, to address these concerns, this paper introduces a reliability assessment framework that considers VER input variability, its impact on component availability, and their resulting impact on overall system reliability. Stochastic models based on discrete Markov processes are developed to incorporate variable irradiance, wind speeds, and their effects on PV and wind component failure rates. A next-event and state transition-based approach is then developed to integrate the stochastic models into a mixed-timing sequential Monte Carlo simulation framework for composite reliability assessment. Case studies on the RTS-GMLC system demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model in evaluating the reliability of VER-integrated systems.

Pandit, Dilip [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-N↗

Powering the Blue Economy Foundational Research & Development Topics Reliability for Marine Energy Power Systems

Ocean observing platforms are deployed across the world’s oceans to collect meteorological and oceanographic data. Current technology makes use of solar panels and battery banks to provide power to these platforms, which can be challenging at high latitudes due to lack of solar insolation and cold temperatures. Marine renewable energy (MRE) generation offers a potential improvement in consistent power generation throughout the year for this use on ocean observation buoys. This report analyzes existing reliability of high latitude coastal weather buoys and tsunami detection buoys to determine performance standards that MRE generation sources must meet to become viable power sources for these remote systems. Using measurements recorded from the U.S. National Data Buoy Center’s coastal weather buoys and tsunami detection buoys, the analysis calculated the historic data availability – or the percentage of time a measurement is recorded – to evaluate the reliability of ocean observation buoys. The results show that coastal weather buoys operate at 74% data availability and the tsunami detection systems operate at an average 72% data availability. The results describe the total reliability of the system, including many different types of failures not associated with the power system such as mooring failures or equipment failures caused by extreme weather. Power system outages may only account for a small portion of the system failures. Reliability is an important design criterion for the power system of ocean observation platforms. Future power systems that would be designed for these buoys, such as an MRE generator, need to have a minimum reliability of 72% and 74% to meet the overall performance of the weather buoys and tsunami buoys, respectively. However, power system reliability likely needs to be much higher than overall system reliability, so that power system outages do not negatively impact the overall performance of the buoy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Distributed Energy Resource (DER) Reliability for Backup Electric Power Systems

Hospitals, emergency services, military bases, ports, airports, industries, commercial facilities, and others rely on backup power systems to provide electricity for their critical loads during grid outages. The purpose of this report it to provide accurate reliability information on commonly deployed distributed energy resources (DERs) to improve quantitative estimates for the reliability of these backup power systems during a grid outage. A backup power system consists of DERs, an electric distribution system with its associated switches and other devices, and mechanisms to control and manage the flow of electricity. Too often, facilities and campuses fail to properly quantify the reliability of their backup power systems. DERs are assumed to be 100% reliable, with the only concern being the availability of fuel. Such assumptions can lead to gross errors in the backup system's reliability estimates, particularly for long-duration outages. This report provides a set of estimates for reliability of emergency diesel generators (EDGs), natural gas prime generators and combined heat and power (CHP) prime movers, solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, and Li-ion battery energy storage systems (BESS). The estimates are derived from empirical data when available and supplemented by modeling results when needed. These reliability estimates are for the DERs ability to provide power during a grid outage, ranging from an hour to 2 weeks.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Application of Orthogonal Defect Classification for Software Reliability Analysis

The modernization of existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) is a recent and highly trending topic. However, there lacks strong consensus on best-estimate reliability methodologies by both the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the industry. This has resulted in hesitation for further modernization projects until a more unified methodology is realized. In this work, we develop an approach called Orthogonal-defect Classification for Assessing Software Reliability (ORCAS) to quantify probabilities of various software failure modes in a DI&C system. The method utilizes accepted industry methodologies for software quality assurance that are also verified by experimental or mathematical formulations. In essence, the approach combines a semantic failure classification model with a reliability growth model to predict (and quantify) the potential failure modes of a DI&C software system. The semantic classification model is used to address the question: How do latent defects in software contribute to different software failure root causes? The use of reliability growth models is then used to address the question: Given the connection between latent defects and software failure root causes, how can we quantify the reliability of the software? A case study was conducted on a representative I&C platform (ChibiOS) running a smart sensor acquisition software developed by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU). The testing and evidence collection guidance in ORCAS was applied, and defects were uncovered in the software. Qualitative evidence, such as condition coverage, was used to gauge the completeness and trustworthiness of the assessment while quantitative evidence was used to determine the software failure probabilities. The reliability of the software was then estimated and compared to existing operational data of the sensor device. It is demonstrated that by using ORCAS, a semantic reasoning framework can be developed to justify if the software is reliable (or unreliable) while still leveraging the strength of the existing methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Reliability metrics and their management implications for open pond algae cultivation

The prevalence of contaminating organisms in outdoor algae cultivation, with the often-associated dramatic crop failures, necessitates the need for metrics describing production system reliability. Standard metrics for algae cultivation reliability are critically needed to be able to map improvements in operational parameters, but do not currently exist. In this work, we present a set of standard metrics including mean time to failure (MTTF) and mean time between failures (MTBF) as the basis for the calculation of pond failure rate (FR) and reliability coefficient (RC). Metrics associated with the numbers of contaminating organisms such as abundance ratio (AR), prevalence of infection (PI), and mean intensity of infection (MII) are also relevant. These metrics, based on measured experimental values of outdoor pond performance during the Algae Testbed Public-Private Partnership (ATP3) Unified Field Studies (UFS), provide a basis for quantifying pond failure and provide insight into potential pond management and contaminant mitigation strategies. From these reliability metrics applied to this dataset, we are able to link operational parameters, such as harvest frequency and inoculum source, to pond reliability for different algae strains and seasons, and from an assessment of AR, provide contamination thresholds beyond which a culture may be unrecoverable. Ultimately, the implementation of widely-practiced and simple-to-calculate algae pond reliability metrics calculated from rapid and easy to collect data or observations will reduce risk and uncertainty in large-scale algae deployment and aid in the development of integrated pest management (IPM) strategies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Impact of Emergency Diesel Generator Reliability on Microgrids and Building-Tied Systems

Microgrids are an emerging alternative as an energy backup system for critical electric loads and have improved performance compared to the traditional architecture where a single emergency diesel generator is tied to an individual building. Both architectures are dependent on the reliability of their individual generators and a quantitative and realistic comparison of the overall system reliability of the two architectures is lacking. Using recently published work on emergency diesel generator finite reliability, a quantitative methodology is presented to compare the reliability of a microgrid architecture based on centralized emergency diesel generators to the traditional approach of generators tied to individual buildings. Three system reliability performance metrics are calculated as a function of outage duration: (1) probability to meet 100% of the critical load; (2) expected fraction of lost load; and (3) probability to meet the highest priority critical loads. It is shown that stand-alone building-tied emergency diesel generators systems, even when two emergency diesel generators are used per building, cannot provide the reliability required to sustain critical loads for a grid outage lasting multiple days. Due to their network configuration and ability to share load, diesel generator-based microgrid configurations are estimated to have = 93% probability of powering all buildings for a 2-week outage there the individual building-tied emergency diesel generator architecture has a =20% probability. Microgrids do present other susceptibilities that are site specific and should be considered including vulnerabilities associated with the on-campus distribution system and cybersecurity.

backup power↗

Probabilistic Sizing of Energy Storage Systems for Reliability and Frequency Security in Wind-Rich Power Grids

The penetration of wind energy has increased significantly in the power grid in recent times. Although wind is abundant, environment-friendly, and cheap, it is variable in nature and does not contribute to system inertia as much as conventional synchronous generators. Coupled with the low inertia contribution, the generation intermittency of wind power leads to reliability and stability issues in the power system. Energy storage systems (ESSs) are among the most prominent alternatives to alleviate these concerns associated with high wind penetration. This paper proposes a planning strategy to size ESS for the reliability and frequency security of wind-rich power grids. A probabilistic methodology for ESS sizing is developed utilizing a composite reliability-based framework with sequential Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The MCS generates composite reliability indices for the power system, which are employed to obtain the capacity for a reliability energy storage system (RESS). Simultaneously, the MCS-derived probability of synchronization of conventional generators is integrated into an analytical approach for sizing a frequency support energy storage system (FESS). The effect of wind farm dispersion across geographical regions is incorporated in the framework to study possible reductions in the ESS size while maintaining the system reliability and frequency security. Furthermore, the efficacy of the proposed strategy is demonstrated on the RTS-GMLC test system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Reliability-Informed Economic and Energy Evaluation for Design for Remanufacturing: A Case Study on a Hydraulic Manifold

Design for Remanufacturing (DfRem) is an attractive approach for sustainable product development. Evaluation of DfRem strategies, from both economic and environmental perspectives, at an early design stage can allow the designers to make informed decisions when choosing the best design option. Studying the long-term implications of a particular design scenario requires quantifying the benefits of remanufacturing for multiple life cycles while considering the reliability of the product. In addition to comparing designs on a one-to-one basis, we find that including reliability provides a different insight into comparing design strategies. We present a reliability-informed cost and energy analysis framework that accounts for product reliability for multiple remanufacturing cycles within a certain warranty policy. The variation of reuse rate over successive remanufacturing cycles is formulated using a branched power-law model which provides probabilistic scenarios of reusing or replacing with new units. To demonstrate the utility of this framework, we use the case study of a hydraulic manifold, which is a component of a transmission used in some agricultural equipment, and use real-world field reliability data to quantify the transmission’s reliability. Three design improvement changes are proposed for the manifold and we quantify the costs and energy consumption associated with each of the design changes for multiple remanufacturing cycles.

design for remanufacturing↗

Modeling Framework to Analyze Performance and Structural Reliability of Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cells

Solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOEC) have been receiving significant attention recently because of their high energy efficiency and fast hydrogen production. In this study a multi-physics model to simulate the SOEC performance and structural reliability of a state-of-the-art planar SOEC design was developed. The electrochemical reactions, fluid dynamics, species transport, electron transfer, and heat transfer were modeled in the commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software STAR-CCM+. The thermomechanical analysis and the associated structural reliability evaluations were conducted using the commercial finite element analysis software ANSYS. The electrochemistry model was validated by using the experimentally obtained current-voltage (I-V) characteristics of the electrode-supported SOECs. The reliability analysis using a risk-of-rupture approach showed low failure probabilities under standard operating conditions considered in this study. For cells operated at voltages well above a thermoneutral voltage, the reliability evaluations indicated a potential risk of cell failure, but the damage was concentrated locally in specific areas of the cell which typically do not lead to total loss of cell function. The presented approach provides insights for evaluating representative cell and stack performances and structural reliability without intensive testing and for developing optimally performing and structurally reliable SOECs for efficient hydrogen generation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Severe weather, utility spending, and the long-term reliability of the U.S. power system

There has been a limited amount of peer-reviewed literature on long-term trends in electricity reliability including the underlying factors that impact reliability across the United States. In this analysis, we considered up to 16 years of data from 203 U S. utilities—representing about 70% of electricity sales. Annual frequency of interruptions for an average customer—at the regional and U.S. national-level—has generally decreased over this timeframe. But we do not find that there is a statistically significant trend in the annual duration of interruptions for an average customer. We find that more explicit measures of severe weather are correlated with reliability. We are able to explain 7% and 16% of past variation in the reliability metrics system average interruption duration and frequency indices, respectively, is due to severe weather—a significant improvement over earlier studies. We find that current year spending by utilities is correlated with worse reliability and that cumulative spending over the preceding three years is correlated with better reliability. Finally, we demonstrate that using a statistical instrument to represent the annual frequency of interruptions for an average customer can greatly improve analysis of trends in the annual duration of interruptions for an average customer.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Challenges and opportunities for the mechanical reliability of metal halide perovskites and photovoltaics

The unproven reliability of perovskite photovoltaics (PVs) is likely to pose an important technical hurdle in the path towards the widespread deployment of the technology. The overall reliability of perovskite PVs is directly afected by the mechanical reliability of the metal halide perovskite material, cells and modules, but this issue has been largely overlooked. Here we stress the importance of addressing the mechanical reliability issue comprehensively. We highlight the important challenges and opportunities, together with best practices, pertaining to the three key interrelated elements that determine the mechanical reliability of perovskite PVs: driving stresses, mechanical properties and mechanical failure. Here, we discuss how to measure the driving stresses and mechanical properties accurately, together with their evolution over time, and the need to understand the relevant failure mechanisms and coupled efects. This efort will inform scientifc approaches to making perovskite PVs more reliable and durable and help them reach their full potential.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗