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At least 55 records · Page 3

Deferred Verification: The Role of New Verification Technologies and Approaches

Researchers at UNIDIR have recently proposed a fundamentally new approach to nuclear arms control verification, dubbed "deferred verification." The concept forgoes inspections at sensitive nuclear sites and inspections of nuclear materials or components in classified form. To implement this concept, a state first divides its territory into a closed segment and an open segment. The total fissile material inventory in the closed segment, which includes the weapon complex, is known and declared with very high accuracy. Essentially no inspections take place in the closed segment. Yet, inspectors have access to the open segment, which includes in particular the civilian nuclear sector. The fissile material inventory in the open segment is known with less accuracy, but uncertainties can be reduced over time using methods of nuclear archaeology. Deferred verification relies primarily on established safeguards techniques and avoids many unresolved verification challenges, including for example the need for information barriers for warhead confirmation measurements. At the same time, deferred verification faces some unique challenges. In this work, we explore some of these challenges and offer possible solutions while maintaining the strengths of the concept; to do so, we examine possible noncompliance strategies in which a state would seek to withhold a higher-than-declared inventory.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Technical Cooperation on Verification and its role in Trust Building [Slides]

Technical cooperation is a low-cost way to initiate movement in the arms control sphere and offers an operational path forward for the reestablishment of working relationships built on trust not freely given, but gained through experience, and a shared vision of the future; Political will alone, though necessary for cooperation to take place, is insufficient in the face of structural obstacles. For effective cooperation to have a future, countries must have both political will and complementary and conducive institutional structures; Cooperation at the intergovernmental level seems unlikely at this time. However, if relationships with international partners continue to be strained as development of new offensive technologies continues, it is very possible that future movement in technical arms control cooperation could again be initiated in the nongovernmental sphere; As the stewards of the majority of the world’s nuclear stockpile, the United States and the Russian Federation have a unique role to play in shaping global norms on arms control verification and cooperation; it is in their mutual interest now to begin to find technical solutions to the question of verification as other countries ramp up production.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Cosmic Ray Muon Imaging of Spent Nuclear Fuel in Dry Storage Casks

In this paper, cosmic ray muon radiography has been used to identify the absence of spent nuclear fuel bundles inside a sealed dry storage cask. The large amounts of shielding that dry storage casks use to contain radiation from the highly radioactive contents impedes typical imaging methods, but the penetrating nature of cosmic ray muons allows them to be used as an effective radiographic probe. This technique was able to successfully identify missing fuel bundles inside a sealed Westinghouse MC-10 cask. This method of fuel cask verification may prove useful for international nuclear safeguards inspectors. Finally, muon radiography may find other safety and security or safeguards applications, such as arms control verification.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Concept of Operations for Nuclear Warhead Embedded Sensors

Embedded arms-control-sensors provide a powerful new paradigm for managing compliance with future nuclear weapons treaties, where deployed warhead numbers will be reduced to 1000 or less. The CONOPS (Concept of Operations) for use with these sensors is a practical tool with which one may help define design parameters, including size, power, resolution, communications, and physical structure. How frequently must data be acquired and must a human be present? Will such data be acquired for only stored weapons or will it be required of deployed weapons as well? Will tactical weapons be subject to such monitoring or will only strategic weapons apply? Which data will be most crucial? Will OSI's be a component of embedded sensor data management or will these sensors stand alone in their data extraction processes? The problem space is massive, but can be constrained by extrapolating to a reasonable future treaty regime and examining the bounded options this scenario poses. Arms control verification sensors, embedded within the warhead case or aeroshell, must provide sufficient but not excessively detailed data, confirming that the item is a nuclear warhead and that it is a particular warhead without revealing sensitive information. Geolocation will be provided by an intermediate transceiver used to acquire the data and to forward the data to a central processing location. Past Chain-of-Custody projects have included such devices and will be primarily responsible for adding such indicators in the future. For the purposes of a treaty regime a TLI will be verified as a nuclear warhead by knowledge of (a) the presence and mass of SNM, (b) the presence of HE, and (c) the reporting of a unique tag ID. All of these parameters can be obtained via neutron correlation measurements, Raman spectroscopy, and fiber optic grating fabrication, respectively. Data from these sensors will be pushed out monthly and acquired nearly daily, providing one of several verification layers in depth, including on-site inspections, NTM, declarations, and semi-annual BCC meetings. Human intervention will not be necessary. The sheer numbers, small size, and wide distribution of warhead TLIs will mandate the added level of remote monitoring that Embedded Sensors can provide. This multilayer protection will limit the need to increase the frequency of OSIs, by adding confidence that declared TLIs remain as declared and that no undeclared items enter the regime without the other States Party's knowledge. Acceptance of Embedded arms control Sensor technologies will require joint development by all State's Parties involved. Principles of operation and robustness of technologies must be individually evaluated to sustain confidence in the strength of this system against attack. Weapons designers must be assured that these sensors will in no way impact weapon performance and operation, will not affect weapons security and safety, and will have a neutral impact upon weapon system surety. Each State's Party will need to conduct an in depth review of their weapons lifecycle to determine where moves may be reduced to minimize vulnerabilities and where random selection may be used to minimize the ability to make undeclared changes. In the end Verification is a political measure, not a technical one. If the potential users can gain sufficient confidence in the application of Embedded arms control Sensors, they could constitute the final layer of glue to hold together the next Nuclear Arms Control agreement.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Delayed Gamma-Ray Spectroscopy for Non-Destructive Assay of Nuclear Materials

High-­energy, beta-delayed gamma-­ray spectroscopy is a potential, non-­destructive assay techniques for the independent verification of declared quantities of special nuclear materials at key stages of the fuel cycle and for directly assaying nuclear material inventories for spent fuel handling, interim storage, reprocessing facilities, repository sites, and final disposal. Other potential applications include determination of MOX fuel composition, characterization of nuclear waste packages, and challenges in homeland security and arms control verification. Experimental measurements were performed to evaluate fission fragment yields, to test methods for determining isotopic fractions, and to benchmark the modeling code package. Experimental measurement campaigns were carried out at the IAC using a photo-­neutron source and at OSU using a thermal neutron beam from the TRIGA reactor to characterize the emission of high-­energy delayed gamma rays from 235 U, 239 Pu, and 241 Pu targets following neutron induced fission. Data were collected for pure and combined targets for several irradiation/spectroscopy cycle times ranging from 10/10 seconds to 15/30 minutes.The delayed gamma-ray signature of 241 Pu, a significant fissile constituent in spent fuel, was measured and compared to 239 Pu. The 241 Pu/ 239 Pu ratios varied between 0.5 and 1.2 for ten prominent lines in the 2700-­3600 keV energy range. Such significant differences in relative peak intensities make it possible to determine relative fractions of these isotopes in a mixed sample. A method for determining fission product yields by fitting the energy and time dependence of the delayed gamma-­ray emission was developed and demonstrated on a limited 235 U data set. De-­convolution methods for determining fissile fractions were developed and tested on the experimental data. The use of high count-­rate LaBr 3 detectors was investigated as a potential alternative to HPGe detectors. Modeling capabilities were added to an existing framework and codes were adapted as needed for analyzing experiments and assessing application-­specific assay concepts. A de-­convolution analysis of the delayed gamma-­ray response spectra modeled for spent fuel assemblies was performed using the same method that was applied to the experimental spectra.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Delayed Gamma-ray Spectroscopy for Non-Destructive Assay of Nuclear Materials

This project addresses the need for improved non-destructive assay techniques for quantifying the actinide composition of spent nuclear fuel and for the independent verification of declared quantities of special nuclear materials at key stages of the fuel cycle. High-energy delayed gamma-ray spectroscopy following neutron irradiation is a potential technique for directly assaying spent fuel assemblies and achieving the safeguards goal of quantifying nuclear material inventories for spent fuel handling, interim storage, reprocessing facilities, repository sites, and final disposal. Other potential applications include determination of MOX fuel composition, characterization of nuclear waste packages, and challenges in homeland security and arms control verification.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Verification Challenges at Low Numbers

This paper will explore the difficulties of deep reductions by examining the technical verification challenges. At each step on the road to low numbers, the verification required to ensure compliance of all parties will increase significantly. Looking post New START, the next step will likely include warhead limits in the neighborhood of 1000 (Pifer 2010). Further reductions will include stepping stones at 100’s of warheads, and then 10’s of warheads before final elimination could be considered of the last few remaining warheads and weapons. This paper will focus on these three threshold reduction levels, 1000, 100’s, 10’s. For each, the issues and challenges will be discussed, potential solutions will be identified, and the verification technologies and chain of custody measures that address these solutions will be surveyed. It is important to note that many of the issues that need to be addressed have no current solution. In these cases, the paper will explore new or novel technologies that could be applied. These technologies will draw from the research and development that is ongoing throughout the national lab complex, and will look at technologies utilized in other areas of industry for their application to arms control verification.

Benz, Jacob M.↗

The feasibility of mobile computing for on-site inspection.

With over 5 billion cellphones in a world of 7 billion inhabitants, mobile phones are the most quickly adopted consumer technology in the history of the world. Miniaturized, power-efficient sensors, especially video-capable cameras, are becoming extremely widespread, especially when one factors in wearable technology like Apple s Pebble, GoPro video systems, Google Glass, and lifeloggers. Tablet computers are becoming more common, lighter weight, and power-efficient. In this report the authors explore recent developments in mobile computing and their potential application to on-site inspection for arms control verification and treaty compliance determination. We examine how such technology can effectively be applied to current and potential future inspection regimes. Use cases are given for both host-escort and inspection teams. The results of field trials and their implications for on-site inspections are discussed.

Horak, Karl Emanuel↗

Rethinking Approaches to Strategic Stability in the 21st Century

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a two-day conference on rethinking approaches to strategic stability in the 21st century on October 20-21, 2016 in Livermore, CA. The conference was jointly convened by Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia National Laboratories, and was held in partnership with the United States Department of State’s Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance. The conference took place at LLNL’s Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) and included a range of representatives from U.S. government, academic, and private institutions, as well as representatives from U.S. allies in Europe and Asia.The following summary covers topics and discussions from each of the panels. It is not intended to capture every point in detail, but seeks to outline the range of views on these complex and inter-related issues while providing a general overview of the panel topics and discussions that took place. The conference was held under the Chatham House rule and does not attribute any remarks to any specific individual or institution. The views reflected in this report do not represent the United States Government, Department of State, or the national laboratories.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Tessera: Open source software for accelerated data science

Extracting useful, actionable information from data can be a formidable challenge for the safeguards, nonproliferation, and arms control verification communities. Data scientists are often on the “front-lines” of making sense of complex and large datasets. They require flexible tools that make it easy to rapidly reformat large datasets, interactively explore and visualize data, develop statistical algorithms, and validate their approaches—and they need to perform these activities with minimal lines of code. Existing commercial software solutions often lack extensibility and the flexibility required to address the nuances of the demanding and dynamic environments where data scientists work. To address this need, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed Tessera, an open source software suite designed to enable data scientists to interactively perform their craft at the terabyte scale. Tessera automatically manages the complicated tasks of distributed storage and computation, empowering data scientists to do what they do best: tackling critical research and mission objectives by deriving insight from data. We illustrate the use of Tessera with an example analysis of computer network data.

Sego, Landon H.↗

Use of Social Media to Target Information-Driven Arms Control and Nonproliferation Verification

There has been considerable discussion within the national security community, including a recent workshop sponsored by the U.S. State Department, about the use of social media for extracting patterns of collective behavior and influencing public perception in areas relevant to arms control and nonproliferation. This paper seeks to explore if, and how, social media can be used to supplement nonproliferation and arms control inspection and monitoring activities on states and sites of greatest proliferation relevance. In this paper, we set the stage for how social media can be applied in this problem space and describe some of the foreseen challenges, including data validation, sources and attributes, verification, and security. Using information analytics and data visualization capabilities available at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), we provide graphical examples of some social media "signatures" of potential relevance for nonproliferation and arms control purposes. We conclude by describing a proposed case study and offering recommendations both for further research and next steps by the policy community.

Social media analytics, open source information an↗

Magnetic Smart Tags (MaST) for Arms Control and Treaty Verification

The ability to track nuclear material is a challenge for resiliency of complex systems, e.g., harsh environments. RF tags, frequently used in national security applications, cannot be used for technological, operational, or safety reasons. Magnetic Smart Tags (MaST) is a novel tag technology based on magnetoelastic sensing that circumvents these issues. This technology is enabled by a new, cost-effective, batch manufacturing electrochemical deposition (ECD) process. This new advancement in fabrication enables multi-frequency tags capable of providing millions of possible codes for tag identification unlike existing theft deterrent tags that can convey only a single bit of information. Magnetostrictive 70% Co: 30% Fe was developed as the base alloy comprising the magnetoelastic resonator transduction element. Saturation magnetostriction, λ S , has been externally measured by the Naval Research Laboratory to be as high as 78 ppm. Description of a novel MEMS variable capacitive test structure is described for future measurements of this parameter.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

R&D Outcomes of Surrogate Environmental Swipe Manufacturing Technique Method Development for Arms Control and Treaty Verification Applications

The analysis of environmental samples is a critical component of nuclear compliance verification and safeguards activities. While the associated particle analyses have benefitted from recent advances in the production of actinide-bearing particulates with uniform and well-characterized particle size, material phase, and isotopic ratios to serve as reference materials for calibration and interlaboratory comparisons, there is an outstanding need for surrogate environmental samples, which resemble field-collected samples, with the aforementioned reference particulates to support future nuclear compliance verification exercises and method development. This effort seeks to leverage the recent advances in tailored reference particle production to generate surrogate environmental swipe samples via parallel production techniques (direct and indirect) which are uniquely suited to the hydrothermal and aerosol-based synthesis routes developed at PNNL and SRNL, respectively. PNNL’s hydrothermal particle production method was used to generate surrogate reference particles for the indirect production of test swipes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Feasibility study of a compact neutron resonance transmission analysis instrument

Neutron Resonance Transmission Analysis (NRTA) uses resonant absorption of neutrons to infer the absolute isotopic composition of a target object, enabling applications in a broad range of fields such as archaeology, enrichment analysis of nuclear fuel, and arms control treaty verification. In the past, NRTA involved large user facilities and complex detector systems. However, recent advances in the intensity of compact neutron sources have made compact neutron imaging designs increasingly feasible. This work describes the Monte Carlo (MC) based design of a compact epithermal NRTA radiographic instrument which uses a moderated, compact deuterium-tritium (DT) neutron source and an epithermal neutron detector. Such an instrument would have a wide range of applications, and would be especially impactful for such scenarios as nuclear inspection and arms control verification exercises, where system complexity and mobility may be of critical importance. The MC simulations presented in this work demonstrate accurate time-of-flight (TOF) reconstructions for transmitted neutron energies, capable of differentiating isotopic compositions of nuclear material with high levels of accuracy. A new generation of miniaturized and increasingly more intense neutron sources will allow this technique to achieve measurements with greater precision and speed, with significant impact on a variety of engineering and societal problems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Electromagnetic Signature Technique as a Promising Tool to Verify Nuclear Weapons Storage and Dismantlement under a Nuclear Arms Control Regime

The 2010 ratification of the New START Treaty has been widely regarded as a noteworthy national security achievement for both the Obama administration and the Medvedev-Putin regime, but deeper cuts are envisioned under future arms control regimes. Future verification needs will include monitoring the storage of warhead components and fissile materials and verifying dismantlement of warheads, pits, secondaries, and other materials. From both the diplomatic and technical perspectives, verification under future arms control regimes will pose new challenges. Since acceptable verification technology must protect sensitive design information and attributes, non-nuclear non-sensitive signatures may provide a significant verification tool without the use of additional information barriers. The use of electromagnetic signatures to monitor nuclear material storage containers is a promising technology with the potential to fulfill these challenging requirements. Research performed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has demonstrated that low frequency electromagnetic signatures of sealed metallic containers can be used to confirm the presence of specific components on a “yes/no” basis without revealing classified information. Arms control inspectors might use this technique to verify the presence or absence of monitored items, including both nuclear and non-nuclear materials. Although additional research is needed to study signature aspects such as uniqueness and investigate container-specific scenarios, the technique potentially offers a rapid and cost-effective tool to verify reduction and dismantlement of U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons.

low frequency electromagnetics, nuclear materials ↗

Analog Video Authentication and Seal Verification Equipment Development

Under contract to the US Department of Energy in support of arms control treaty verification activities, the Savannah River National Laboratory in conjunction with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, the Idaho National Laboratory and Milagro Consulting, LLC developed equipment for use within a chain of custody regime. This paper discussed two specific devices, the Authentication Through the Lens (ATL) analog video authentication system and a photographic multi-seal reader. Both of these devices have been demonstrated in a field trial, and the experience gained throughout will also be discussed. Typically, cryptographic methods are used to prove the authenticity of digital images and video used in arms control chain of custody applications. However, in some applications analog cameras are used. Since cryptographic authentication methods will not work on analog video streams, a simple method of authenticating analog video was developed and tested. A photographic multi-seal reader was developed to image different types of visual unique identifiers for use in chain of custody and authentication activities. This seal reader is unique in its ability to image various types of seals including the Cobra Seal, Reflective Particle Tags, and adhesive seals. Flicker comparison is used to compare before and after images collected with the seal reader in order to detect tampering and verify the integrity of the seal.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Non-nuclear Component Signatures for Warhead Dismantlement Confirmation

The verification of warhead dismantlement is expected to be an important component in future arms reduction treaties. Historic approaches developed with future arms control treaty verification in mind often involve intrusive measurements, process monitoring, and/or inspector presence to provide confidence that an authentic warhead has been dismantled. This work explores the possibility of reducing the negative impacts of these invasive approaches while also delivering a method that is more likely to provide non-sensitive data that can be shared with not only other nuclear weapons states but also non-nuclear weapons states partners. This work explores a novel approach for verifying dispositioned non-nuclear weapon components, providing confidence post-dismantlement that a treaty accountable item that was dismantled was in fact a treaty-relevant nuclear weapon system as declared. This method provides an alternative to intrusive inspection processes in nuclear weapons production environments, which would require significant changes to the host’s operational behaviors. It achieves this by identifying intrinsic neutron-induced signatures of non-nuclear components to determine their authenticity and estimate the duration they were exposed within a nuclear weapons system using technologies that are already in use for other national security applications. Intrinsic radiation effects studies are already a part of the stockpile aging and surveillance evaluations. However, none of these technologies and approaches have been previously considered for verification applications of non-nuclear component disposition. In this report, we introduce modeling studies that have been used to identify the most promising candidate parts and materials with signatures that are measurable and actionable. These models have been validated with laboratory measurements of signatures induced by the exposure of candidate materials to neutrons over a range of times. Predictive modeling then demonstrates the methodology for estimating exposure times and/or limits. Laboratory measurements of authentic non-nuclear parts from a dismantled warhead demonstrate the feasibility of employing these signature measurements. And finally, a concept of operations (CONOPS) for the potential use of this methodology is presented.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Comments for A Conference on Verification in the 21st Century

The author offers 5 points for the discussion of Verification and Technology: (1) Experience with the implementation of arms limitation and arms reduction agreements confirms that technology alone has never been relied upon to provide effective verification. (2) The historical practice of verification of arms control treaties between Cold War rivals may constrain the cooperative and innovative use of technology for transparency, veification and confidence building in the future. (3) An area that has been identified by many, including the US State Department and NNSA as being rich for exploration for potential uses of technology for transparency and verification is information and communications technology (ICT). This includes social media, crowd-sourcing, the internet of things, and the concept of societal verification, but there are issues. (4) On the issue of the extent to which verification technologies are keeping pace with the demands of future protocols and agrements I think the more direct question is ''are they effective in supporting the objectives of the treaty or agreement?'' In this regard it is important to acknowledge that there is a verification grand challenge at our doorstep. That is ''how does one verify limitations on nuclear warheads in national stockpiles?'' (5) Finally, while recognizing the daunting political and security challenges of such an approach, multilateral engagement and cooperation at the conceptual and technical levels provides benefits for addressing future verification challenges.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗