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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1972

Demonstration of the use of ADAPT to derive predictive maintenance algorithms for the KSC central heat plant

The Avco Data Analysis and Prediction Techniques (ADAPT) were employed to determine laws capable of detecting failures in a heat plant up to three days in advance of the occurrence of the failure. The projected performance of algorithms yielded a detection probability of 90% with false alarm rates of the order of 1 per year for a sample rate of 1 per day with each detection, followed by 3 hourly samplings. This performance was verified on 173 independent test cases. The program also demonstrated diagnostic algorithms and the ability to predict the time of failure to approximately plus or minus 8 hours up to three days in advance of the failure. The ADAPT programs produce simple algorithms which have a unique possibility of a relatively low cost updating procedure. The algorithms were implemented on general purpose computers at Kennedy Space Flight Center and tested against current data.

Hunter, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Preliminary Development and Evaluation of Lightning Jump Algorithms for the Real-Time Detection of Severe Weather

Previous studies have demonstrated that rapid increases in total lightning activity (intracloud + cloud-to-ground) are often observed tens of minutes in advance of the occurrence of severe weather at the ground. These rapid increases in lightning activity have been termed "lightning jumps." Herein, we document a positive correlation between lightning jumps and the manifestation of severe weather in thunderstorms occurring across the Tennessee Valley and Washington D.C. A total of 107 thunderstorms were examined in this study, with 69 of the 107 thunderstorms falling into the category of non-severe, and 38 into the category of severe. From the dataset of 69 isolated non-severe thunderstorms, an average peak 1 minute flash rate of 10 flashes/min was determined. A variety of severe thunderstorm types were examined for this study including an MCS, MCV, tornadic outer rainbands of tropical remnants, supercells, and pulse severe thunderstorms. Of the 107 thunderstorms, 85 thunderstorms (47 non-severe, 38 severe) from the Tennessee Valley and Washington D.C tested 6 lightning jump algorithm configurations (Gatlin, Gatlin 45, 2(sigma), 3(sigma), Threshold 10, and Threshold 8). Performance metrics for each algorithm were then calculated, yielding encouraging results from the limited sample of 85 thunderstorms. The 2(sigma) lightning jump algorithm had a high probability of detection (POD; 87%), a modest false alarm rate (FAR; 33%), and a solid Heidke Skill Score (HSS; 0.75). A second and more simplistic lightning jump algorithm named the Threshold 8 lightning jump algorithm also shows promise, with a POD of 81% and a FAR of 41%. Average lead times to severe weather occurrence for these two algorithms were 23 minutes and 20 minutes, respectively. The overall goal of this study is to advance the development of an operationally-applicable jump algorithm that can be used with either total lightning observations made from the ground, or in the near future from space using the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Recent Advancements in Lightning Jump Algorithm Work

In the past year, the primary objectives were to show the usefulness of total lightning as compared to traditional cloud-to-ground (CG) networks, test the lightning jump algorithm configurations in other regions of the country, increase the number of thunderstorms within our thunderstorm database, and to pinpoint environments that could prove difficult for any lightning jump configuration. A total of 561 thunderstorms have been examined in the past year (409 non-severe, 152 severe) from four regions of the country (North Alabama, Washington D.C., High Plains of CO/KS, and Oklahoma). Results continue to indicate that the 2 lightning jump algorithm configuration holds the most promise in terms of prospective operational lightning jump algorithms, with a probability of detection (POD) at 81%, a false alarm rate (FAR) of 45%, a critical success index (CSI) of 49% and a Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 0.66. The second best performing algorithm configuration was the Threshold 4 algorithm, which had a POD of 72%, FAR of 51%, a CSI of 41% and an HSS of 0.58. Because a more complex algorithm configuration shows the most promise in terms of prospective operational lightning jump algorithms, accurate thunderstorm cell tracking work must be undertaken to track lightning trends on an individual thunderstorm basis over time. While these numbers for the 2 configuration are impressive, the algorithm does have its weaknesses. Specifically, low-topped and tropical cyclone thunderstorm environments are present issues for the 2 lightning jump algorithm, because of the suppressed vertical depth impact on overall flash counts (i.e., a relative dearth in lightning). For example, in a sample of 120 thunderstorms from northern Alabama that contained 72 missed events by the 2 algorithm 36% of the misses were associated with these two environments (17 storms).

Schultz, Christopher J.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Radionuclide identification algorithm for organic scintillator-based radiation portal monitor

We have developed an algorithm for on-the-fly radionuclide identification for radiation portal monitors using organic scintillation detectors. The algorithm was demonstrated on experimental data acquired with our pedestrian portal monitor on moving special nuclear material and industrial sources at a purpose-built radiation portal monitor testing facility. The experimental data also included common medical isotopes. The algorithm takes the power spectral density of the cumulative distribution function of the measured pulse height distributions and matches these to reference spectra using a spectral angle mapper. F-score analysis showed that the new algorithm exhibited significant performance improvements over previously implemented radionuclide identification algorithms for organic scintillators. Reliable on-the-fly radionuclide identification would help portal monitor operators more effectively screen out the hundreds of thousands of nuisance alarms they encounter annually due to recent nuclear-medicine patients and cargo containing naturally occurring radioactive material. Lastly, portal monitor operators could instead focus on the rare but potentially high impact incidents of nuclear and radiological material smuggling detection for which portal monitors are intended.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2015

A Formally Verified Conflict Detection Algorithm for Polynomial Trajectories

In air traffic management, conflict detection algorithms are used to determine whether or not aircraft are predicted to lose horizontal and vertical separation minima within a time interval assuming a trajectory model. In the case of linear trajectories, conflict detection algorithms have been proposed that are both sound, i.e., they detect all conflicts, and complete, i.e., they do not present false alarms. In general, for arbitrary nonlinear trajectory models, it is possible to define detection algorithms that are either sound or complete, but not both. This paper considers the case of nonlinear aircraft trajectory models based on polynomial functions. In particular, it proposes a conflict detection algorithm that precisely determines whether, given a lookahead time, two aircraft flying polynomial trajectories are in conflict. That is, it has been formally verified that, assuming that the aircraft trajectories are modeled as polynomial functions, the proposed algorithm is both sound and complete.

Narkawicz, Anthony↗
NASA NTRS2011

An Overview of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm: Past, Present and Future Work

Rapid increases in total lightning prior to the onset of severe and hazardous weather have been observed for several decades. These rapid increases are known as lightning jumps and can precede the occurrence of severe weather by tens of minutes. Over the past decade, a significant effort has been made to quantify lightning jump behavior in relation to its utility as a predictor of severe and hazardous weather. Based on a study of 34 thunderstorms that occurred in the Tennessee Valley, early work conducted in our group at Huntsville determined that it was indeed possible to create a reasonable operational lightning jump algorithm (LJA) based on a statistical framework relying on the variance behavior of the lightning trending signal. We the expanded this framework and tested several variance-related LJA configurations on a much larger sample of 87 severe and non severe thunderstorms. This study determined that a configuration named the "2(sigma)" algorithm had the most promise in development of the operational LJA with a probability of detection (POD) of 87%, a false alarm rate (FAR) of 33%, a Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 0.75. The 2(sigma) algorithm was then tested on an even larger sample of 711 thunderstorms of all types from four regions of the country where total lightning measurement capability existed. The result was very encouraging.Despite the larger number of storms and the inclusion of different regions of the country, the POD remained high (79%), the FAR was low (36%) and HSS was solid (0.71). Average lead time from jump to severe weather occurrence was 20.65 minutes, with a standard deviation of +/- 15 minutes. Also, trends in total lightning were compared to cloud to ground (CG) lightning trends, and it was determined that total lightning trends had a higher POD (79% vs 66%), lower FAR (36% vs 54 %) and a better HSS (0.71 vs 0.55). From the 711-storm case study it was determined that a majority of missed events were due to severe weather producing thunderstorms in low flashing environments. The latest efforts have been geared toward examining these low flashing storms in order to adjust the algorithm for such storms, thus enhancing the capability of the LJA. Future work will test the algorithm in real time using current satellite and radar based cell tracking methods, as well as, comparing total lightning jump occurrence to both satellite based and ground base observations of thunderstorms to create correlations between lightning jumps and the observed structures within thunderstorms. Finally this algorithm will need to be tested using Geostationary Lightning Mapper proxy data to transition the algorithm from VHF ground based lightning measurements to lower frequency space-based lightning measurements.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Optical landmark detection for spacecraft navigation

In this paper, a new crater detection algorithm is suggested. Experimental studies show that this new algorithm can achieve sub-pixel accuracy in position, its detection rate is better than 90% and its false alarm rate is less than 5%. These good characteristics indicate that it is an ideal crater detection algorithm for spacecraft optical navigation.

optical↗
NASA NTRS2010

Evaluation of Anomaly Detection Capability for Ground-Based Pre-Launch Shuttle Operations

This chapter will provide a thorough end-to-end description of the process for evaluation of three different data-driven algorithms for anomaly detection to select the best candidate for deployment as part of a suite of IVHM (Integrated Vehicle Health Management) technologies. These algorithms were deemed to be sufficiently mature enough to be considered viable candidates for deployment in support of the maiden launch of Ares I-X, the successor to the Space Shuttle for NASA's Constellation program. Data-driven algorithms are just one of three different types being deployed. The other two types of algorithms being deployed include a "nile-based" expert system, and a "model-based" system. Within these two categories, the deployable candidates have already been selected based upon qualitative factors such as flight heritage. For the rule-based system, SHINE (Spacecraft High-speed Inference Engine) has been selected for deployment, which is a component of BEAM (Beacon-based Exception Analysis for Multimissions), a patented technology developed at NASA's JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) and serves to aid in the management and identification of operational modes. For the "model-based" system, a commercially available package developed by QSI (Qualtech Systems, Inc.), TEAMS (Testability Engineering and Maintenance System) has been selected for deployment to aid in diagnosis. In the context of this particular deployment, distinctions among the use of the terms "data-driven," "rule-based," and "model-based," can be found in. Although there are three different categories of algorithms that have been selected for deployment, our main focus in this chapter will be on the evaluation of three candidates for data-driven anomaly detection. These algorithms will be evaluated upon their capability for robustly detecting incipient faults or failures in the ground-based phase of pre-launch space shuttle operations, rather than based oil heritage as performed in previous studies. Robust detection will allow for the achievement of pre-specified minimum false alarm and/or missed detection rates in the selection of alert thresholds. All algorithms will also be optimized with respect to an aggregation of these same criteria. Our study relies upon the use of Shuttle data to act as was a proxy for and in preparation for application to Ares I-X data, which uses a very similar hardware platform for the subsystems that are being targeted (TVC - Thrust Vector Control subsystem for the SRB (Solid Rocket Booster)).

Martin, Rodney Alexander↗
DOE OSTI2017

Initial Modeling of Urban Search Measurements

Detection of illicit nuclear materials in urban environments is difficult due to the large amount of background radiation from naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) in the roadways and buildings. Mobile searches suffer from low count rates, so the detection algorithms must be carefully balanced between missing real sources and reporting too many false alarms. The Modeling Urban Scenarios and Experiments (MUSE) project aims to create a virtual testbed for simulation of radiation detection to predict realistic background and threat source detection events so that detection algorithms can be better optimized to find illicit sources. The MUSE project is a collaboration of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and the Remote Sensing Laboratory (RSL). The project also works with staff at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to support the development of the Optimization Planning Tool for Urban Search (OPTUS) software package. The first step in creating a virtual testbed is to determine the level of detail required in the models to match actual measurements. Several measurement campaigns were conducted in 2015 and 2016 at the Fort Indiantown Gap (FTIG) Combined Arms Collective Traming Facility (CACTF). This facility contains a representative urban environment, with a dozen buildings and several streets. Detectors commonly used in search operations - 2 in x 4 in x 16 in NaI(Tl) - were used to measure count rates from background and sources. Measurements with a shielded high-purity germanium detector of the roadways, sidewalks, and building walls were made to determine the concentration of NORM that makes up the bulk of the background radiation. This paper shows some comparisons of modeling simulations to measurements taken during the OPTUS-3 campaign in November 2015. Measurements with and without an 81 {mu}Ci cesium source were made at several points along the center line of the main road. Initial results show good agreement between the measured and simulated spectra above 300 keV. Additional studies to determine the causes of mismatch below 300 keV have been started and will also be discussed.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Remaining Flying Time Prediction Implementing Battery Prognostics Framework for Electric UAV's

In this paper the problem of building trust in the online safety prediction of an fixed wing small electric unmanned aerial vehicles (e-UAV) for remaining flying time is addressed. A series of flight tests are described to verify the performance of the remaining flying time prediction algorithm. The estimate of remaining flying time is used to activate an alarm when the predicted remaining time falls below a threshold of two minutes. This updates the pilot to transition to the landing sequence of the flight profile. A second alarm is activated when the battery state of charge (SOC) falls below a specified safety limit threshold. This SOC threshold is the point at which the battery energy reserve would no longer safely support enough aborted landing attempts. During the test flights, the motor system is operated with the same predefined timed airspeed profile for each test. To test the robustness of the developed prediction algorithm, partial tests were performed with and remaining were performed without a simulated power train fault. To simulate a partial power train fault in the e-UAV the pilot engages a resistor bank at a specified time during the test flight. The flying time prediction system is agnostic of the pilot's activation of the fault and must adapt to the vehicle's state. The time at which the limit threshold on battery SOC is reached, it is then used to measure the accuracy of the remaining flying time predictions. This is demonstrated through comparing results from two battery models being developed. Accuracy requirements for the alarms are considered and the results discussed.

Kulkarni, Chetan↗
DOE OSTI2016

Unattended Sensor System With CLYC Detectors

We have developed a next-generation unattended sensor for detecting anomalous radiation sources. The system combines several technologies to reduce size and weight, increase battery lifetime, and improve decision-making capabilities. Sixteen Cs2LiYCl6:Ce (CLYC) scintillators allow for gamma-ray spectroscopy and neutron detection in the same volume. Low-power electronics for readout, high voltage bias, and digital processing reduce the total operating power to 1.3 W. Computationally efficient analysis algorithms perform spectral anomaly detection and isotope identification. When an alarm occurs, the system transmits alarm information over a cellular modem. In this paper, we describe the overall design of the unattended sensor, present characterization results, and compare the performance to stock NaI:Tl and 3He detectors.

CLYC↗
NASA NTRS1978

Flight tests of a simple airborne device for predicting clear air turbulence encounters

An airborne clear-air turbulence detector is being flight-tested on board NASA's C-141 and Learjet aircraft. The device is an infrared (IR) sensor in the water vapor band and is designed to detect changes in vapor concentrations associated with turbulence in shear conditions. Warnings of about 5 min have been demonstrated at flight altitudes from 9.1 to 13.7 km (30,000 to 45,000 ft). Encounter predictions were obtained 80% of the time, and false alarms were given about 6% of the time. Several simple algorithms were studied for use as signal output analyzers and for alert triggering.

Kurkowski, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Variations and Defects: Influence on Performance and Safety of Aerospace Missions

The overall goal of this project is to determine sources of normal and abnormal statistical variation for helicopter transmission vibrations. One current application is HUMS technology for helicopters. The design and manufacturing research hypothesis is that statistical variation due to design and manufacturing is a significant source of unreliability and eventual failures of systems. The Systems Health and Safety group research objectives include the following: (1) to develop empirical database for modeling and evaluation; (2) to identify and model factors that influence vibrations; (3) to develop algorithms for damage detection; (4) to determine 'hit' and 'false alarm' rates; and (5) to understand the fundamentals of transmission vibrations.

Turner, Irem Y.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Minimum Detectable Quantity Calculation for Radiation Portal Monitors

The minimum detectable quantity of a radiation portal monitor is the smallest amount of radioactive material that can be detected passing through the monitor (with a specified detection probability). The minimum detectable quantity is a function of many factors, including isotope, velocity, distance between pillars, height of portal and vehicle, source distribution and position, background radiation, background suppression, detector volume and positions, detector efficiency, decision metrics and algorithms, the presence of NORM (naturally occurring radioactive material), and alarm thresholds. Experimentally testing a radiation portal monitor to failure for all combinations of these factors is extremely time-consuming and often cost prohibitive. This document outlines a straightforward method for quickly estimating the minimum detectable quantity for moving sources over a large variety of conditions with a minimal number of static measurements. The document also describes a proof of concept software application that the International Atomic Energy Agency has designed based on the described method that can be used by Member States to estimate a monitor’s minimum detectable quantity.

Blessinger, Christopher S.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Kernelized Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test for Spectrum Sensing in Cognitive Radio

Spectrum sensing in next-generation wireless radio networks is considered a key technology to overcome the problem of spectrum scarcity. Unfortunately, many approaches to spectrum sensing do not work well in low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) environments. This paper proposes and analyzes a new algorithm named kernelized generalized likelihood ratio test (KGLRT) for spectrum sensing in cognitive radio systems to overcome this problem. Effectively, KGLRT uses a nonlinear kernel to map input data onto a high-dimensional feature space; then, the widely accepted (linear) generalized likelihood ratio test is used for hypothesis testing. This new algorithm gives a gain of 4 dB in SNR over its linear counterpart. A theoretical analysis for this algorithm is given for the first time and is shown analogous to algorithms used in image signal processing. The detection metrics are found to be concentrated random variables; furthermore, the probability distributions of the detection metrics are proved to follow the F -distributions, which agree with the results obtained using the concentration inequality. The analytical thresholds are derived for target false-alarm probabilities. Here, the thresholds are independent of noise power; thus, the proposed algorithm can overcome noise uncertainty issues at very low SNR levels. Simulations validate the theoretical results.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS1994

Minimal time change detection algorithm for reconfigurable control system and application to aerospace

System parameters should be tracked on-line to build a reconfigurable control system even though there exists an abrupt change. For this purpose, a new performance index that we are studying is the speed of adaptation- how quickly does the system determine that a change has occurred? In this paper, a new, robust algorithm that is optimized to minimize the time delay in detecting a change for fixed false alarm probability is proposed. Simulation results for the aircraft lateral motion with a known or unknown change in control gain matrices, in the presence of doublet input, indicate that the algorithm works fairly well. One of its distinguishing properties is that detection delay of this algorithm is superior to that of Whiteness Test.

Kim, Sungwan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of Supervised and Un-Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms for Threat Detection and Scintillator Performance for Radiation Portal Monitoring

Following the events of September 11, 2001, international border crossing have been equipped with radiation portal monitors (RPMs) to identify illicit radioactive material. Polyvinyl toluene (PVT) scintillators are commonly used due to their low cost and reasonable maintainability, however they offer low spectral resolution. Despite the fact that over twenty years has transpired since this event, radioisotopes are still typically identified by hand-crafted classification algorithms, e.g., total counts or energy windowing, and exhibit relatively poor performance in detecting threats at the low false alarm rates required to support the stream of commerce. While some improvement to performance has been realized via the use of supervised machine learning, these classification algorithms typically utilize simulations in lieu of real data due to the sparsity of data for one or more classes. Accordingly, the performance of these algorithms is somewhat less than optimal when examining experiments or simulations with model mismatch. Consequently, in this work, we examine the application of a number of unsupervised machine learning, anomaly detection based algorithms, to circumvent the inverse crime when analyzing spectroscopy data for RPMs. We also compare anomaly detection results with those obtained via the use of supervised classification detection ML algorithms when model mismatch is introduced between the simulated threat items utilized for training/testing. Finally, we compared the performance of the PVT scintillators to those obtained with higher resolution detectors using both anomaly detection and supervised classification algorithms.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2020

Implementing Online Oscillation Monitoring and Forced Oscillation Source Locating at Peak Reliability

This paper introduces a framework of online oscillation monitoring systems and forced oscillation detection & source location tools that Peak Reliability ('PEAK') has implemented for the Reliability Coordinator (RC) function of the Western Interconnection. The framework consists of four main components: (1) Montana Tech's Modal Analysis Software (MAS) engine; (2) Washington State University's Oscillation Monitor System (OMS) software; (3) Forced Oscillation Detection and Source Location Algorithms (FODSL); and (4) PEAK in-house visualization tool and alarming logic built in PI Processbook. The framework has been validated and applied for real system oscillation studies successfully. Implementation experience and lessons learned will be discussed in the paper.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗