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NASA NTRS2022

Near-Earth Object Surveyor Overview

The Near-Earth Object (NEO) Surveyor is designed to detect, categorize and characterize Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) using infrared imaging. The project was approved to enter the preliminary design phase (Phase B) in FY21 after an extended Concept Development Phase (Phase A). The NEO Surveyor project responds to US Public Law 109-155[1], National Research Council’s report “Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys & Hazard Mitigation Strategies (2010)”[2], the U. S. National Near-Earth Object Preparedness Strategy and Action Plan (June 2018)[3], and the objectives of NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO). The goals of the NEO Surveyor project are to: (1) identify impact hazards to the Earth posed by NEOs (defined as asteroids and comets that come within 1.3 AU of the Sun) by performing a comprehensive survey of the NEO population; (2) obtain detailed physical characterization data for individual objects that are likely to pose an impact hazard; (3) characterize the entire population of potentially hazardous NEOs to inform potential mitigation strategies. The mission will make significant progress toward the George E. Brown, Jr. NEO Survey Program objective defined by the U. S. Congress of detecting, tracking, cataloging, and characterizing at least 90% of NEOs equal to or larger than 140 m in diameter. The project is a collaboration between NASA-JPL, the University of Arizona (UA) and industry, with Ball Aerospace notably providing the spacecraft and key instrument elements. This paper will describe the overall NEO Surveyor Project objectives, initial spacecraft and instrument design and development plans and mission concept.

Veto, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2002

Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS): A Space-Based System Concept for Revolutionizing Earth Protection and Utilization of Near-Earth Objects

There exists an infrequent, but significant hazard to life and property due to impacting asteroids and comets. There is currently no specific search for long-period comets, smaller near-Earth asteroids, or smaller short-period comets. These objects represent a threat with potentially little or no warning time using conventional ground-based telescopes. These planetary bodies also represent a significant resource for commercial exploitation, long-term sustained space exploration, and scientific research. The Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS) would expand the current detection effort to include long-period comets, as well as small asteroids and short-period comets capable of regional destruction. A space-based detection system, despite being more costly and complex than Earth-based initiatives, is the most promising way of expanding the range of detectable objects, and surveying the entire celestial sky on a regular basis. CAPS is a future spacebased system concept that provides permanent, continuous asteroid and comet monitoring, and rapid, controlled modification of the orbital trajectories of selected bodies. CAPS would provide an orbit modification system capable of diverting kilometer class objects, and modifying the orbits of smaller asteroids for impact defense and resource utilization. This paper provides a summary of CAPS and discusses several key areas and technologies that are being investigated.

Mazanek, Daniel D.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS): Preliminary Space-Based Concept and Study Results

There exists an infrequent, but significant hazard to life and property due to impacting asteroids and comets. There is currently no specific search for long-period comets, smaller near-Earth asteroids, or smaller short-period comets. These objects represent a threat with potentially little or no warning time using conventional ground-based telescopes. These planetary bodies also represent a significant resource for commercial exploitation, long-term sustained space exploration, and scientific research. The Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS) is a future space-based system concept that provides permanent, continuous asteroid and comet monitoring, and rapid, controlled modification of the orbital trajectories of selected bodies. CAPS would expand the current detection effort to include long-period comets, as well as small asteroids and short-period comets capable of regional destruction. A space-based detection system, despite being more costly and complex than Earth-based initiatives, is the most promising way of expanding the range of detectable objects, and surveying the entire celestial sky on a regular basis. CAPS would provide an orbit modification system capable of diverting kilometer class objects, and modifying the orbits of smaller asteroids for impact defense and resource utilization. This Technical Memorandum provides a compilation of key related topics and analyses performed during the CAPS study, which was performed under the Revolutionary Aerospace Systems Concepts (RASC) program, and discusses technologies that could enable the implementation of this future system.

Mazanek, Daniel D.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Impact-generated Tsunamis: An Over-rated Hazard

A number of authors have suggested that oceanic waves (tsunami) created by the impact of relatively small asteroids into the Earth's oceans might cause widespread devastation to coastal cities. If correct, this suggests that asteroids > 100 m in diameter may pose a serious hazard to humanity and could require a substantial expansion of the current efforts to identify earth-crossing asteroids > 1 km in diameter. The debate on this hazard was recently altered by the release of a document previously inaccessible to the scientific community. In 1968 the US Office of Naval Research commissioned a summary of several decades of research into the hazard proposed by waves generated by nuclear explosions in the ocean. Authored by tsunami expert William Van Dorn, this 173-page report entitled Handbook of Explosion-Generated Water Waves affords new insight into the process of impact wave formation, propagation, and run up onto the shoreline.

Melosh, H. J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The Spaceguard Survey: Report of the NASA International Near-Earth-Object Detection Workshop

Impacts by Earth-approaching asteroids and comets pose a significant hazard to life and property. Although the annual probability of the Earth being struck by a large asteroid or comet is extremely small, the consequences of such a collision are so catastrophic that it is prudent to assess the nature of the threat and to prepare to deal with it. The first step in any program for the prevention or mitigation of impact catastrophes must involve a comprehensive search for Earth-crossing asteroids and comets and a detailed analysis of their orbits. At the request of the U.S. Congress, NASA has carried out a preliminary study to define a program for dramatically increasing the detection rate of Earth-crossing objects, as documented in this workshop report.

Morrison, David↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Impact Threat and Public Perception

Recent popular movies have raised public consciousness of the very real possibility of a comet or asteroid collision with the Earth, and a news report last year implying that asteroid 1997 XF11 had a distinct chance of hitting the Earth in the year 2028 further caught the public's eye. The report of possible impact was withdrawn the very next day, and the public perceived either that astronomers had made mistaken calculations, or that the pre-discovery observations found that day had been responsible for the revised prediction. But in fact, the original report of the possibility of impact in 2028 was simply a premature assessment. The XF11 affair has demonstrated the need for clarity and precision in public communications dealing with the possibility of Earth impact, as well as the importance of peer review before results are released to the press. This year, another potentially hazardous asteroid, 1999 AN10, has made the news, and this time there is indeed a remote chance of collision. Although impact is not possible during the asteroid's primary close approach in 2027, the uncertainties allow for a remarkably close passage, and embedded within the encounter's uncertainty region are many narrow "keyholes" which could bring the asteroid back for a close approach in a later year. Three keyholes have been identified which could perturb the asteroid onto trajectories that collide with the Earth in the years 2044, 2046, or 2039. At the time of this writing, the estimated impact probability for 1999 AN10 is on the order of 1 in 500,000, larger than for any other known object, but still significantly less than the probability of an undiscovered asteroid of equivalent size striking the Earth before 2044. Additional astrometric measurements of 1999 AN10 will likely drive its impact probability down to near-zero, but this may not happen for years, testing the public's reaction to a lingering remote possibility of impact. A side effect of the increasing discovery rate for Near Earth objects will be a growing number of cases like 1999 ANIO.

Chodas, Paul W.↗
NASA NTRS2013

OSIRIS-REx Will Return a Sample of Asteroid 1999 RQ36 for Astrochemistry

Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, Security, Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) is the third mission in NASA's New Frontiers program. OSIRIS-REx launches in 2016 and will return the first pristine samples of carbonaceous material from the surface of a primitive asteroid in 2023. The target, (101955) 1999 RQ36, is 1/2 km diameter roughly spherical Apollo near-Earth asteroid. It is expected to be carbonaceous, similar to CI or CM carbonaceous chondrites. This organic-rich remnant from the early Solar System is also among the most potentially hazardous asteroids known with a 1 in 2500 chance of impacting the Earth in the late 22nd century. OSIRIS-REx will measure the Yarkovsky effect to better constrain future orbit and impact potential of this and other asteroids. OSIRIS-REx will image, map, and spectrally characterize RQ36 from 0.4-50 icron. The returned sample of regolith will be >60g (and up to 2kg) and thus the largest extraterrestrial sample returned from space since Apollo 17. Unlike meteorites, the sample will come from a known, well-characterized source and will be collected and transported to Earth pristine from terrestrial contamination. It will be available for study by the global astrochemistry community to address fundamental questions about the origin and evolution of the solar system and the life it harbors.

organic-rich↗
NASA NTRS2017

OSIRIS-REx Asterod Sample Return Mission

OSIRIS-REx is NASA's third New Frontiers Program mission, following New Horizons that completed a flyby of Pluto in 2015 and the Juno mission to Jupiter that has just begun science operations. The OSIRIS-REx mission's primary objective is to collect pristine surface samples of a carbonaceous asteroid and return to Earth for analysis. Carbonaceous asteroids and comets are 'primitive' bodies that preserved remnants of the Solar System starting materials and through their study scientists can learn about the origin and the earliest evolution of the Solar System. The OSIRIS-REx spacecraft was successfully launched on September 8, 2016, beginning its seven year journey to asteroid 101955 Bennu. The robotic arm will collect 60-2000 grams of material from the surface of Bennu and will return to Earth in 2023 for worldwide distribution by the Astromaterials Curation Facility at NASA Johnson Space Center. The name OSIRIS-REx embodies the mission objectives (1) Origins: Return and analyze a sample of a carbonaceous asteroid, (2) Spectral Interpretation: Provide ground-truth for remote observation of asteroids, (3) Resource Identification: Determine the mineral and chemical makeup of a near-Earth asteroid (4) Security: Measure the non-gravitational that changes asteroidal orbits and (5) Regolith Explorer: Determine the properties of the material covering an asteroid surface. Asteroid Bennu may preserve remnants of stardust, interstellar materials and the first solids to form in the Solar System and the molecular precursors to the origin of life and the Earth's oceans. Bennu is a potentially hazardous asteroid, with an approximately 1 in 2700 chance of impacting the Earth late in the 22nd century. OSIRIS-REx collects from Bennu will help formulate the types of operations and identify mission activities that astronauts will perform during their expeditions. Such information is crucial in preparing for humanity's next steps beyond low Earthy orbit and on to deep space destinations.

Nakamura-Messinger, Keiki↗
NASA NTRS1994

Impacts with the Earth and Jupiter

The Earth has been subject to impacts from comets and asteroids since its formation, and such impacts have played an important role in the evolution of life on our planet. We now recognize not only the historical role of impacts, but the contemporary hazard posed by such events. In the absence of a complete census of potentially threatening Earth-crossing asteroids or comets (called collectively Near Earth Objects, or NEOs), or even of a comprehensive current search program to identify NEOs, we can consider the hazard only from a probabilistic perspective. In general, the larger the object the greater the hazard, even when allowance is made for the infrequency of large impacts. Most of the danger to human life is associated with impacts by objects roughly 2 km or larger (energy greater than 1 million megatons), which can inject sufficient submicrometer dust into the atmosphere to produce a severe short-term global cooling with subsequent loss of crops, leading to starvation. Hazard estimates suggest that the chance of such an event occurring during a human lifetime is about 1:5000, and the global probability of death from such impacts is of the order of 1:20000, values that can be compared with risks associated with other natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and severe storms. The widely-observed impact of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 with Jupiter in July 1994 provides a graphic example of such an interplanetary collision and is stimulating worldwide interest in protecting our planet against cosmic impact catastrophes.

Morrison, David↗
NASA NTRS2005

Offshore Breaking of Impact Tsunami: Van Dorn was Right

Tsunami generated by the impacts of asteroids and comets into the Earth s oceans are widely recognized as a potentially catastrophic hazard to the Earth s population (e.g. Chapman and Morrison 1994, Nature, 367, 33; Hills et al. 1994, in Hazards Due to Comets and Asteroids, (ed. T. Gehrels), 779; Atkinson et al. 2000, Report of the UK Task Force on Potentially Hazardous NEOs; Ward and Asphaug 2000, Icarus, 145, 64). A peculiarity of ocean impacts is the potential global effects of an impact that would otherwise be of only regional or local importance should it occur on land. This is, of course, due to the ability of waves to propagate globally, as seen by the terrible effects of the recent earthquake off the coast of Sumatra. The overall process of an impact tsunami is complex and falls into several distinct phases: 1) initial impact of the bolide into the ocean and formation of a transient cavity in the water, 2) collapse of the cavity and propagation of large waves from the impact center outward over deep water (typically several km in depth), 3) initial effects on wave amplitude as shallower water of the continental slope is reached ("wave shoaling"), possible breaking of waves in relatively shallow water (less than 100 m depth), on continental shelves, and 5) final contact of waves with the shore and their progression onto dry land ("run-up" and "run-in"). Here we report on numerical calculations (and semi-analytic theory) covering phases 3 and 4.

Korycansky, D. G.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Tsunami Generation from Asteroid Airburst and Ocean Impact and Van Dorn Effect

Airburst - In the simulations explored energy from the airburst couples very weakly with the water making tsunami dangerous over a shorter distance than the blast for asteroid sizes up to the maximum expected size that will still airburst (approx.250MT). Future areas of investigation: - Low entry angle airbursts create more cylindrical blasts and might couple more efficiently - Bursts very close to the ground will increase coupling - Inclusion of thermosphere (>80km altitude) may show some plume collapse effects over a large area although with much less pressure center dot Ocean Impact - Asteroid creates large cavity in ocean. Cavity backfills creating central jet. Oscillation between the cavity and jet sends out tsunami wave packet. - For deep ocean impact waves are deep water waves (Phase speed = 2x Group speed) - If the tsunami propagation and inundation calculations are correct for the small (<250MT) asteroids in these simulations where they impact deep ocean basins, the resulting tsunami is not a significant hazard unless particularly close to vulnerable communities. Future work: - Shallow ocean impact. - Effect of continental shelf and beach profiles - Tsunami vs. blast damage radii for impacts close to populated areas - Larger asteroids below presumed threshold of global effects (Ø200 - 800m).

Tsunami↗
NASA NTRS2023

Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) Mission

NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission was humanity’s first attempt to move a celestial body, demonstrating the capability to perform a kinetic impact on a planetary defense–relevant sized asteroid. DART was part of the international collaboration known as the Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA), involving NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), the Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI), and scientists around the world. DART was a key step to demonstrating preparedness to respond to planetary defense scenarios, and it provides a crucial data point for likely outcomes. Near-Earth objects (NEOs) greater than 140 m in size are of particular interest to planetary defense because they have the potential to cause significant damage if they were to impact Earth, and also because they are difficult to detect, with less than 50% of the predicted population discovered as of 2022 (National Academies Press, 2022). With an appropriately sized spacecraft and enough warning (typically many years to decades), a kinetic impact can slightly alter the orbit of an asteroid in a way that, over time, prevents the asteroid from colliding with Earth in the future. DART’s target was Dimorphos, the smaller (~150-m-diameter) member of the binary asteroid system (65803) Didymos, which is a near-Earth, potentially hazardous, and well-characterized asteroid system. By simply observing changes to the system after impact and comparing them with a pre-impact reference, it was possible to use ground-based telescopes to observe the deflection in the orbit of Dimorphos after impact. Developed and operated by the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL), the mission entered formulation in 2015 after multiple years of concept development. The project was administered according to NPR 7120.5, with technical oversight and funding through the Planetary Missions Program Office (PMPO) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and overall support as a directed mission from NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO). The DART spacecraft hosted a singular payload, the Didymos Reconnaissance and Asteroid Camera for Optical navigation (DRACO), and a deployable CubeSat contributed by ASI named the Light Italian CubeSat for Imaging of Asteroids (LICIACube). On 11 September 2022, DART deployed LICIACube, which subsequently followed the DART spacecraft at a safe distance and observed the immediate aftermath of the DART impact. DART was designed to autonomously detect, navigate to, and impact Dimorphos. This autonomous design was chosen to maximize the probability of impact, since commanding from the ground could result in course corrections arriving too late. On the day of impact, 26 September 2022, the spacecraft’s autonomous systems successfully detected and locked on to Dimorphos, impacting its surface within 2 m of the center of the illuminated figure (Jensenius et al., 2023). No human intervention was required for a successful impact, demonstrating that humanity possesses the technology to perform a kinetic impact. Within 2 weeks of impact, it was clear that the orbit of Dimorphos had been significantly altered. On 11 October 2022, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson announced that the new orbital period of Dimorphos was shortened by approximately 32 ± 2 min, from 11 h and 55 min before impact to 11 h and 23 min after impact. With additional observations over the following months, the accuracy of this measurement improved to a –33.24 min ± 1.4 s orbital period change (Naidu et al., 2023; Scheirich et al., 2023), and Beta (β), the momentum transfer enhancement parameter, was reported to be 3.6 (Cheng et al., 2023). Subsequent studies examined the details of DART’s impact site, modeled the impact event, investigated the ejecta produced, and analyzed the dynamics of the Didymos system. These combined results clearly demonstrate that the project met all Level 1 mission requirements.

asteroid↗
NASA NTRS2017

Asteroid Generated Tsunami Workshop: Summary of NASA/NOAA Workshop

A two-day workshop on tsunami generated by asteroid impacts in the ocean resulted in a broad consensus that the asteroid impact tsunami threat is not as great as previously thought, that airburst events in particular are unlikely to produce significant damage by tsunami, and that the tsunami contribution to the global ensemble impact hazard is substantially less than the contribution from land impacts. The workshop, led by Ethiraj Venkatapathy and David Morrison of NASA Ames, was organized into three sessions: 1) Near-field wave generation by the impact; 2) Long distance wave propagation; 3) Damage from coastal run-up and inundation, and associated hazard. Workshop approaches were to compare simulations to understand differences in the results and gain confidence in the modeling for both formation and propagation of tsunami from asteroid impacts, and to use this information for preliminary global risk assessment. The workshop focus was on smaller asteroids (diameter less than 250m), which represent the most frequent impacts.

Asteroid↗
NASA NTRS2003

Impact Tsunami Calculations: Hydrodynamical Simulations vs. Linear Theory

Tsunamis generated by the impacts of asteroids and comets into the Earth oceans are widely recognized as a potential catastrophic hazard to the Earth s population. Our general conclusion is that linear theory is a reasonably accurate guide to behavior of tsunamis generated by impactors of moderate size, where the initial transient impact cavity is of moderate depth compared to the ocean depth. This is particularly the case for long wavelength waves that propagate fastest and would reach coastlines first. Such tsunamis would be generated in the open ocean by impactors of 300 meters in diameter, which might be expected to strike the Earth once every few thousand years, on the average. Larger impactors produce cavities deep enough to reach the ocean floor; even here, linear theory is applicable if the starting point is chosen at a later phase in the calculation when the impact crater has slumped back to produce a cavity of moderate depth and slope.

Korycansky, E.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Design of Spacecraft Missions to Test Kinetic Impact for Asteroid Deflection

There are currently over 8,000 known near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), and more are being discovered on a continual basis. More than 1,200 of these are classified as Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) because their Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance (MOID) with Earth's orbit is <= 0.05 AU and their estimated diameters are >= 150 m. To date, 178 Earth impact structures have been discovered, indicating that our planet has previously been struck with devastating force by NEAs and will be struck again. Such collisions are aperiodic events and can occur at any time. A variety of techniques have been proposed to defend our planet from NEA impacts by deflecting the incoming asteroid. However, none of these techniques have been tested. Unless rigorous testing is conducted to produce reliable asteroid deflection systems, we will be forced to deploy completely untested -- and therefore unreliable -- deflection missions when a sizable asteroid on a collision course with Earth is discovered. Such missions will have a high probability of failure. We propose to address this problem with a campaign of deflection technology test missions deployed to harmless NEAs. The objective of these missions is to safely evaluate and refine the mission concepts and asteroid deflection system designs. Our current research focuses on the kinetic impactor, one of the simplest proposed asteroid deflection techniques in which a spacecraft is sent to collide with an asteroid at high relative velocity. By deploying test missions in the near future, we can characterize the performance of this deflection technique and resolve any problems inherent to its execution before needing to rely upon it during a true emergency. In this paper we present the methodology and results of our survey, including lists of NEAs for which safe and effective kinetic impactor test missions may be conducted within the next decade. Full mission designs are also presented for the NEAs which offer the best mission opportunities.

Hernandez, Sonia↗
NASA NTRS2017

BAOBAB (Big And Outrageously Bold Asteroid Belt) Project

One of the intriguing results of NASA's Dawn mission is the composition and structure of the Main Asteroid Belt's only known dwarf planet, Ceres [1]. It has a top layer of dehydrated clays and salts [2] and an icy-rocky mantle [3,4]. It is widely known that the asteroid belt failed to accrete as a planet by resonances between the Sun and Jupiter. About 20-30 asteroids >100 km diameter are probably differentiated protoplanets [5]. 1) how many more and which ones are fragments of protoplanets? 2) How many and which ones are primordial rubble piles left over from condensation of the solar nebula? 3) How would we go about gaining better and more complete characterization of the mass, interior structure and composition of the Main Belt asteroid population? 4) What is the relationship between asteroids and ocean worlds? Bulk parameters such as the mass, density, and porosity, are important to characterize the structure of any celestial body, and for asteroids in particular, they can shed light on the conditions in the early solar system. Asteroid density estimates exist but currently they are often based on assumed properties of taxonomic classes, or through astronomical survey data where interactions with asteroids are weak at best resulting in large measurement uncertainty. We only have direct density estimates from spacecraft encounters for a few asteroids at this time. Knowledge of the asteroids is significant not only to understand their role in solar system workings, but also to assess their potential as space resources, as impact hazards on Earth, or even as harboring life forms. And for the distant future, we want to know if the idea put forth in a contest sponsored by Physics Today, to surface the asteroids into highly reflecting, polished surfaces and use them as a massively segmented mirror for astrophysical exploration [6], is feasible.

Asteroid Belt↗
NASA NTRS1997

New Research by CCD Scanning for Comets and Asteroids

The purpose of Spacewatch is to explore the various populations of small objects within the solar system. Spacewatch provides data for studies of comets and asteroids, finds potential targets for space missions, and provides information on the environmental problem of possible impacts. Moving objects are discovered by scanning the sky with charge-coupled devices (CCDs) on the 0.9-meter Spacewatch Telescope of the University of Arizona on Kitt Peak. Each Spacewatch scan consists of three drift scan passes over an area of sky using a CCD filtered to a bandpass of 0.5-1.0 microns (approximately V+R+I with peak sensitivity at 0.7 micron). The effective exposure time for each pass is 143 seconds multiplied by the secant of the declination. We have been finding some 30,000 new asteroids per year and applying their statistics to the study of the collisional history of the solar system. As of the end of the observing run of Nov. 1997, Spacewatch had found a total of 153 Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) and 8 new comets since the project began in the 1980s, and had recovered one lost comet. The total number of NEAs found by Spacewatch big enough to be hazardous if they were to impact the Earth is 36. Spacewatch is also efficient in recovery of known comets and has detected and reported positions for more than 137,000 asteroids, mostly new ones in the main belt, including more than 16,000 asteroids designated by the Minor Planet Center (MPC).

Gehrels, Tom↗
NASA NTRS1992

Debris about asteroids: Where and how much?

We summarize several recent findings on the size and shape of the region within which material can stably orbit an asteroid. If the asteroid (with assumed density 2.38 g/cu cm) circles the Sun at 2.55 AU, co-planar prograde material will remain trapped whenever started on unperturbed circular orbits at less than about 220 R(sub A) (asteroid radii); co-planar retrograde particles are stable out twice as far. Our 3-D stability surface, which encloses several hundred numerically calculated orbits that start with various inclinations, is shaped like a sphere with its top and bottom sliced off; its dimensions scale like the Hill radius =(mu/3)(exp 1/3)R, where mu is the asteroid-to-solar mass ratio and R is the asteroid's orbital radius. If the asteroid moves along an elliptical orbit, a fairly reliable indicator of the dimensions of the hazard zone is the size of its Hill sphere at the orbit's pericenter. Grains with radii less than a few mm will be lost through the action of radiation forces which can induce escape or cause collisions with the asteroid on times scales of a few years; interplanetary micrometeoroids produce collisional break-up of these particles in approximately 10(exp 4) yrs. The effects of Jupiter and of asteroids that pass close to the target asteroid allow particles to diffuse from the system, again shrinking the hazard zone. None of the considered sources-primordial formation, debris spalled off the asteroid during micrometeoroid impact, captured interplanetary particles, feeder satellites, etc., seem capable of densely populating distant orbits from the asteroid. No certain detections of debris clouds or of binary asteroids have been made. Thus, it seems highly unlikely that a spacecraft fly-by targeted at 100 R(sub A) from the asteroid over its orbital pole would encounter any material.

Burns, Joseph A.↗