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Energy storage at all timescales, including the seasonal scale, plays a pivotal role in enabling increased penetration levels of wind and solar photovoltaic energy sources in power systems.
Direct-fired supercritical CO2 (sCO2) power cycles are being explored as an attractive alternative to natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Therefore, understanding their performance and cost potential is important for the commercialization of the technology. This study presents the techno-economic optimization results of natural gas-fired, utility-scale power plants based on the direct sCO2 power cycle, which are lacking in public literature. To identify the optimum plant configuration, the study considered multiple cases with varying levels of thermal integration with the plant air separation unit (ASU). Several design variables for each power cycle configuration were identified and optimized to minimize the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for each case. The optimization design variables include the sCO2 cooler outlet temperatures, recuperator approach temperatures, and pressure drops. High fidelity models for recuperators, coolers, and turbines were developed and used to capture the impact of design variables on plant efficiency and capital costs. The optimization was conducted using a combination of manual sensitivity analyses and automated derivative-free optimization algorithms available under NETL’s Framework for Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty and Sensitivity platform. The optimized direct sCO2 power plants offered similar or slightly higher plant efficiencies than the reference NGCC plants based on the F-class gas turbine with CCS. The LCOE of the optimized direct sCO2 plants is 13 to 17% higher than the reference NGCC plants with CCS due to high capital costs associated with the ASU and sCO2 power block, though there is significant room for improvement due to the high uncertainty in component capital costs for these new plants. Recuperators make up over 50% of the sCO2 power block costs. Consequently, any research and development efforts to reduce the recuperator capital costs will benefit the technology’s commercialization. The study also presents preliminary results showing the impact of co-firing landfill gas and natural gas on plant efficiency, LCOE, and CO2 emissions.
Direct-fired supercritical CO2 (sCO2) power cycles are being explored as an attractive alternative to natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Therefore, understanding their performance and cost potential is important for the commercialization of the technology. This study presents the techno-economic optimization results of natural gas-fired, utility-scale power plants based on the direct sCO2 power cycle, which are lacking in public literature. To identify the optimum plant configuration, the study considered multiple cases with varying levels of thermal integration with the plant air separation unit (ASU). Several design variables for each power cycle configuration were identified and optimized to minimize the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for each case. The optimization design variables include the sCO2 cooler outlet temperatures, recuperator approach temperatures, and pressure drops. High fidelity models for recuperators, coolers, and turbines were developed and used to capture the impact of design variables on plant efficiency and capital costs. The optimization was conducted using a combination of manual sensitivity analyses and automated derivative-free optimization algorithms available under NETL’s Framework for Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty and Sensitivity platform. The optimized direct sCO2 power plants offered similar or slightly higher plant efficiencies than the reference NGCC plants based on the F-class gas turbine with CCS. The LCOE of the optimized direct sCO2 plants is 13 to 17% higher than the reference NGCC plants with CCS due to high capital costs associated with the ASU and sCO2 power block, though there is significant room for improvement due to the high uncertainty in component capital costs for these new plants. Recuperators make up over 50% of the sCO2 power block costs. Consequently, any research and development efforts to reduce the recuperator capital costs will benefit the technology’s commercialization. The study also presents preliminary results showing the impact of co-firing landfill gas and natural gas on plant efficiency, LCOE, and CO2 emissions.
Supercritical CO 2 (sCO 2 ) power cycles are being developed due to their potential for high efficiency and reduced capital cost. It is necessary that these recuperators operate at high pressures and temperatures, up to 30 MPa and 900 K, with effectiveness values > 95% and pressure drops <1% to achieve high cycle efficiencies. Moreover, it is also necessary to have reasonable cost recuperators to control the capital costs of the sCO 2 power cycles. In this study, a Plate Pin-Fin (PPF) heat exchanger has been proposed as an sCO 2 recuperator. This preliminary recuperator design leverages capabilities enabled by additive manufacturing. Although the PPF design has characteristics similar to those of a plate heat exchanger, small diameter and relatively long fins are used to increase surface area, enhance heat transfer, and provide structural support for the partition plates that separate the fluid streams. Existing correlations for heat transfer and pressure drop were adapted for the PPF heat exchanger. These correlations were implemented in a 1D analytical model and used for the optimization of a 5-kW th high temperature recuperator for an indirect sCO 2 cycle by varying the design parameters to minimize the quantity of material required. A 3D conjugate heat transfer numerical simulations were conducted to validate the heat transfer and pressure loss correlations. A steepest descent method was used to minimize heat exchanger mass for a 5-kW prototype recuperator subject to a maximum specified pressure drop. Additionally, the design analysis indicated that an optimum PPF recuperator would be attained for the minimum allowable pin transverse spacing, minimum pin width, minimum pin height and near maximum cell aspect ratio. Moreover, at a low material requirement of 0.216 kg/kW and a pressure drop, which is almost five times lower than the allowable pressure drop design target, the optimized PPF heat exchanger has the high potential to be an alternative to a printed circuit heat exchanger, which is a conservative design basis for the current state-of-the-art sCO 2 recuperators.
The development of technologies that utilize carbon dioxide is important to mitigating climate change. The electrochemical reduction of carbon dioxide is one technology that can utilize greenhouse gasses that would be otherwise be emitted to the atmosphere by producing chemicals and fuels from carbon dioxide and electricity. Significant progress has been made in the experimental performance of carbon dioxide reduction systems with novel catalyst designs, new materials, and systems engineering; however, no work has linked such changes in stack design and materials to capital costs for the stack itself. In this study, we present an analysis that accounts for and analyzes the impacts of alternative materials and system architectures on manufactured costs of carbon dioxide reduction stacks, thus providing a framework to understand exactly how these advances impact the at-scale capital costs of these systems. Specifically, we consider the impact that the addition of a catholyte buffer layer has on an electrolyzer reducing carbon dioxide to formate, finding that the cost of manufacturing this part only increases stack costs by about $30/m 2 at high manufacturing rates, while previous work finds that this part improves system performance. This work shows that the links between system performance, materials, and costs are nonlinear, and that achieving low-cost scalability requires optimization of not just performance parameters but also the use of low-cost and highly scalable materials. These results bridge experimental and techno-economic analysis of processes for carbon dioxide reduction, informing researchers by providing a quantifiable estimate of the impact of advances in electrochemical carbon dioxide reduction technology on manufactured stack capital costs.
The Government of India has a target of deploying 175 GW from renewable energy by 2022 and 40% of electricity capacity from renewable energy by 2030 and has indicated that ambitions for 2030 could be higher. Rapid changes in technology costs and performance could drive further deployment of wind and solar capacity beyond these policy targets. Increased deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) raises new questions for power system planning regarding the optimal siting of generation capacity, trade-offs between generation and transmission infrastructure, and system flexibility needs. This study aims to evaluate least-cost pathways for India's electric power system over the period 2017-2047. Uniquely, this work considers an expanded planning horizon and range of scenarios not previously analyzed in national planning studies in India. The data collection and model design processes undertaken for this study provides a framework for recurring planning studies. This study finds anticipated changes in electricity demand and component costs can drive a significant shift in India's future electricity supply and how this system will be operated. In the Base scenario, the share of generation from VRE reaches 54% by 2047. Reducing the capital cost of wind has a larger impact on VRE penetration than reducing the capital cost of solar PV or battery storage. In the lowest wind cost scenario (40% capital cost decline by 2047 relative to the Base scenario), the penetration of VRE in the generation mix reaches 722%, exceeding the penetration levels achieved when the cost of battery storage or solar PV are reduced by an even greater 50%. In a future system with high penetrations of RE, capacity additions are driven by the coincidence of demand and RE generation rather than peak demand alone. This study finds the system could have surplus capacity during the peak demand months of July–September because this period corresponds to periods with high wind speeds and more wind generation available to meet peak demand. By contrast, new capacity is needed to meet demand during moderate demand months of October–November when output from wind plants falls more than 75% nationally compared to the previous two months. Finally, the success for gas for electricity production may depend on cost competitiveness rather than fuel availability. Increasing the amount of gas available for electricity production had no significant impact on the capacity or generation mix by 2047, as determined from a scenario that significantly increases fuel availability throughout the planning horizon. In fact, over 80% of new gas fuel available for the power sector remains unused. This suggests the high cost of gas plant operations relative to other technologies may constrain the expansion of gas generation in India more than fuel availability.
Hydropower is a renewable energy resource that produces electricity from flowing water under pressure. Engineered hydropower structures, such as dams, are used to create a hydraulic head, enabling a turbinegenerator unit to convert pressurized flow into electricity. While hydropower has been a source of renewable energy since antiquity, new development in the United States has slowed in recent decades. Based on recent resource assessments, the largest opportunity to expand hydropower in the United States is from new stream-reach development (i.e., new hydropower development along stream-reaches that do not currently have hydroelectric facilities or other forms of infrastructure, such as dams). Roughly 75% of identified new stream-reach development potential is from low-head sites (less than 30 ft of head), which typically suffer from smaller power densities and higher normalized costs, given economies of scale. Hydropower developers and other stakeholders are thus interested in strategies to reduce initial capital costs while practicing sustainable development to maximize environmental compatibility with minimal disruption to natural aquatic life, sediment, and water flows. Historically, civil works have represented a significant cost driver for new hydropower development, with the foundation system representing a major cost component and source of uncertainty. The foundation system is the collection of engineered structural features (e.g. cutoff trenches, walls, grouting, anchors) constructed at or below the preconstruction ground surface that interfaces between the overlying structures (superstructures) and the bed material below (subsurface). Development of a hydropower foundation system must consider the various characteristics of the surrounding stream environment and subsurface while adhering to the engineering requirements of the superstructure that it supports. The care of water, excavation, and other construction activities are important features of foundation design and construction. The design and construction cost of the foundation system is largely dependent on the site geology and riverbed composition and is influenced by the level of geotechnical assessment required and conducted. Thus, a hydropower facility’s geotechnical foundation is often highly site-specific, with proper site selection and assessment being important to project success. The foundation system is designed to provide structural stability (of the foundation and dam), limit seepage, ensure public safety, and maintain functionality for the project life, during both construction and facility operations. Inadequate foundation or dam design can result in dam failure and the uncontrolled release of significant volumes of water, which could cause a high number of casualties and extensive property damage downstream of the failure. According to the Association of State Dam Safety Officials, approximately 30% of all historical dam failures in the United States are attributed to foundation or abutment defects, and another 20% are attributed to piping or seepage through the embankment, foundation, or abutment. To ameliorate these safety considerations, foundations often require massive amounts of construction material (e.g., grout, concrete, engineered dam fill) and long construction times. Foundation design also requires significant analysis prior to construction because the initial in-stream and abutment subsurface conditions are site-specific, and sufficient data for them often are lacking. Current practice requires on-site assessment, using expensive drilling and invasive and non-invasive investigation methods, to determine the expected cost of foundation material and treatment. Additionally, foundation construction often requires site dewatering (and other care of water activities), which involves constructing temporary diversion structures upstream and often downstream, called cofferdams, and water diversion systems that route water around the construction site. Cofferdams and water diversion systems can drastically increase construction costs and contribute to environmental disruption, including modification of flow patterns and benthic habitats. Given the technical, economic, and environmental challenges associated with hydropower foundations, opportunities exist to improve the current state of practice and to develop new and innovative solutions to Hydropower is a renewable energy resource that produces electricity from flowing water under pressure. Engineered hydropower structures, such as dams, are used to create a hydraulic head, enabling a turbinegenerator unit to convert pressurized flow into electricity. While hydropower has been a source of renewable energy since antiquity, new development in the United States has slowed in recent decades. Based on recent resource assessments, the largest opportunity to expand hydropower in the United States is from new stream-reach development (i.e., new hydropower development along stream-reaches that do not currently have hydroelectric facilities or other forms of infrastructure, such as dams). Roughly 75% of identified new stream-reach development potential is from low-head sites (less than 30 ft of head), which typically suffer from smaller power densities and higher normalized costs, given economies of scale. Hydropower developers and other stakeholders are thus interested in strategies to reduce initial capital costs while practicing sustainable development to maximize environmental compatibility with minimal disruption to natural aquatic life, sediment, and water flows. Historically, civil works have represented a significant cost driver for new hydropower development, with the foundation system representing a major cost component and source of uncertainty. The foundation system is the collection of engineered structural features (e.g. cutoff trenches, walls, grouting, anchors) constructed at or below the preconstruction ground surface that interfaces between the overlying structures (superstructures) and the bed material below (subsurface). Development of a hydropower foundation system must consider the various characteristics of the surrounding stream environment and subsurface while adhering to the engineering requirements of the superstructure that it supports. The care of water, excavation, and other construction activities are important features of foundation design and construction. The design and construction cost of the foundation system is largely dependent on the site geology and riverbed composition and is influenced by the level of geotechnical assessment required and conducted. Thus, a hydropower facility’s geotechnical foundation is often highly site-specific, with proper site selection and assessment being important to project success. The foundation system is designed to provide structural stability (of the foundation and dam), limit seepage, ensure public safety, and maintain functionality for the project life, during both construction and facility operations. Inadequate foundation or dam design can result in dam failure and the uncontrolled release of significant volumes of water, which could cause a high number of casualties and extensive property damage downstream of the failure. According to the Association of State Dam Safety Officials, approximately 30% of all historical dam failures in the United States are attributed to foundation or abutment defects, and another 20% are attributed to piping or seepage through the embankment, foundation, or abutment. To ameliorate these safety considerations, foundations often require massive amounts of construction material (e.g., grout, concrete, engineered dam fill) and long construction times. Foundation design also requires significant analysis prior to construction because the initial in-stream and abutment subsurface conditions are site-specific, and sufficient data for them often are lacking. Current practice requires on-site assessment, using expensive drilling and invasive and non-invasive investigation methods, to determine the expected cost of foundation material and treatment. Additionally, foundation construction often requires site dewatering (and other care of water activities), which involves constructing temporary diversion structures upstream and often downstream, called cofferdams, and water diversion systems that route water around the construction site. Cofferdams and water diversion systems can drastically increase construction costs and contribute to environmental disruption, including modification of flow patterns and benthic habitats. Given the technical, economic, and environmental challenges associated with hydropower foundations, opportunities exist to improve the current state of practice and to develop new and innovative solutions to challenges frequently encountered with traditional approaches. With this understanding, it is critically important to understand and document the current state of practice for hydropower geotechnical foundations, identify key challenges, and define opportunities for innovative solutions. To this end, this report documents the current state of practice across the three main phases of geotechnical foundation development: (1) geotechnical site assessment, (2) design, and (3) construction for hydropower systems. It also describes the major challenges with conventional approaches and identifies opportunities for innovation to reduce hydropower foundations costs, timelines, and risks. Key takeaways from this report include the following: Approximately 80% of available low-head sites are expected to have foundations on soil beds rather than rock beds, suggesting that rockfill and earthfill dams may be the most cost-effective conventional dam type for new projects.; Geotechnical and geologic investigation activities are time-consuming and expensive but are essential to define the parameters and criteria needed for foundation design.; Certain riverbed soil and bedrock types present significant technical challenges or require expensive foundation construction, which can prove financially prohibitive for low-head project development.; Modular hydropower design and prefabricated modular foundations represent a promising but unproven paradigm for new hydropower development. Design and construction approaches using optimized and highly repeatable, reliable components would benefit project cost, time, and risk but require additional research and development.; Temporary construction features for foundations, including cofferdams, water diversion, and water control systems, can prove costly and have inherent construction risk.; For economically viable development, hydropower geotechnical foundations should be limited to 4 to 15% of the project’s total initial capital costs. Many proposed projects have experienced cost overruns attributable to foundation difficulties or surprises during construction. These overruns may have been due to inadequate investigations, lack of adequate engineering effort to tailor the structures to site geology and topography, and/or contractual terms, among other considerations.; Challenges for hydropower foundations and opportunities for innovative technology solutions are identified in the following areas (consistent with the three main phases of foundation development): Geotechnical site assessment, Foundation design and materials, Construction methods and technology. Ultimately, this report aims to provide information about geotechnical foundations for low-head hydropower and to motivate transformative technologies to support hydropower growth.
Advanced reactor concepts currently under development in the United States [e.g., the High-Temperature Gas Reactor (HTGR) of X-Energy and the Molten Chloride Fast Reactor (MCFR) of TerraPower] are striving to improve the economics of nuclear power primarily by using passively and ‘walk-away’ safe technologies in the reactor. The recently published report, ‘Future of Nuclear Energy in a Carbon-Constrained World’ by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Institute (MIT EI) has shown that a significant contributor to the capital cost of NPPs is the ‘civil works’ i.e., the construction of the balance of plant (BoP: all SSCs except those involved in power generation, e.g., reactor vessel) such as the buildings, containment dome, foundation, etc., which amount to almost half of the overnight capital cost. The report suggests that using advanced construction technologies such as seismic isolation and high-performance concrete to significantly reduce the capital costs of advanced reactors. This report demonstrates the application of two cost-cutting solutions on advanced reactor designs that are currently under development. These solutions include, (1) seismic base isolation, and (2) risk- and cost-based seismic design optimization including seismic isolation of individual components.
The uncertainty in the cost of nuclear energy coinciding with efforts to address climate change are contributing to the uncertainty in the future role of nuclear energy in the US electricity system and the response to addressing global climate change. Sensitivity cases of alternative nuclear capital costs, ranging from 2600 to 6600 $\$ $/kW, were investigated with scenarios of alternative carbon mitigation policies, including 50, 100, and 150 $\$ $/tCO 2 carbon tax cases and economy-wide net-zero goals by 2050, 2060, and 2070 for the US. The resulting US nuclear power capacity ranged from 130 to 240 GW in 2050 and 90 to 450 GW in 2100 from nuclear cost sensitivity cases without carbon mitigation policies. Imposing policies to achieve the decarbonization of electricity and net-zero emission goals increased the range of nuclear power capacity from 190 to 460 GW in 2050 and 210 to 850 GW by 2100, where the range is from the low and high nuclear cost cases. Carbon penalties beyond 100 $\$ $/tCO 2 had a diminishing role on the expansion of nuclear power as the electricity sector becomes fully decarbonized. The 50 $\$ $/tCO 2 tax had the nuclear capital cost equivalency of 1000 $\$ $/kW reduction, while the 100 $\$ $/tCO 2 tax had the equivalency of 2000 $\$ $/kW reduction. Net-zero goals increased the contribution of nuclear power due to the increase in total electricity demand, but the delay in the timing of net-zero did not significantly affect the role of nuclear in the long-term. All net-zero goals were similar in their energy system impact with resulting carbon tax levels reaching 300 $\$ $/tCO 2 . Electricity is fully decarbonized in the net-zero scenarios and carbon pricing beyond 100 to 150 $\$ $/tCO 2 had little influence on the additional deployment of nuclear power. Regardless of the carbon policy, however, nuclear capital cost reductions had a clear and pronounced impact on the expanded deployment of nuclear power under all scenarios.
Over the twelve-month project the following achievements were accomplished: • Liquefication of methane as primary component of natural gas was accomplished with a magnetocaloric liquefier (MCL) prototype. This was the first time an MCL was used to liquefy methane. • Improved MCL designs were completed. • Cooling to 135 K from room temperature was achieved for the first time in a single MCL stage with dual, reciprocating four-layer regenerators. • Techno-economic analysis for a multi-stage 5 tonne/day magnetocaloric liquefier was completed. The detailed thermodynamic analysis of this MCL design showed a figure of merit (FOM) of 0.6 was achievable. This is a ~2x improvement over current state of the art. • Cost of an efficient 5 tonne/day LNG multi-stage liquefier was projected to be ~$\$$3.1 MM for the 5 tonne/day MCL with achievable design assumptions. • Market study of U.S. merchant LNG demand by energy sector was completed showing that at beginning of 2019, total use was ~2.5 million gallons/day primarily in three sectors that was filled by ~20 small companies in the merchant LNG supply business producing ~2.3 million gpd. These data exclude LNG produced at dedicated peak shaving and large export plants. • Business case for MCL technology based on LNG market study was completed showing the high FOM feature of MCL reduces cost of plant power, and lower capital cost reduces debt repayment and plant depreciation operating expenses. However, today’s demand for U.S. merchant LNG in most sectors is satisfied with conventional technology. Further, with today’s extremely low natural gas (NG) feedstock costs (e.g., ~$\$$1.8/MMBtu), the cost of fuel for NG gensets and for LNG feedstock is already very low. Therefore, possible new merchant LNG liquefier plant developers anticipating demand growth in the transportation, industrial, and electricity generation sectors do not obtain sufficient cost benefits to adopt new, commercially unproven MCL technology. • Other market factors such as remoteness from existing NG pipelines, or unfilled or unsatisfied applications such as boil-off gas re-liquefaction in LNG vessels, or policy factors such as some form of emissions-related fees may make lower capital costs and higher FOM of MCL technology attractive for new small-scale (~50 tonne/day) LNG plants. Two potentially attractive niche markets for MCL technology were identified: i) re-liquefaction of boil-off gas from large LNG transport vessels where severe transport conditions are problematic for conventional technology; and ii) providing LNG in distributed-scale plants that eliminate road transport costs to meet diverse, smaller-scale, distributed LNG bunkering fuel demands. By eliminating significant cryogenic tanker delivery costs and create an attractive cost-savings benefit with small-scale MCL plants.
Increasing development of wind and solar generation in the power sector can create economic opportunities for the deployment of water electrolyzers that produce hydrogen. Temporal variation in the marginal cost of energy in future decarbonized grids can make it favorable for electrolyzers to dispatchably ramp hydrogen production up and down in response to low- and high-cost times. Using this strategy, low-cost hydrogen production is enabled by electrolyzers that are low-capital cost and tolerant to frequent on/off cycling. Ramping down hydrogen production to a designated turndown ratio can avoid performance degradation caused by on/off cycling by not shutting the electrolyzer completely off. This comes with a slight cost penalty which can be minimized if the turndown ratio is low (i.e., the system ramps down hydrogen production to close to zero). These results suggest that electrolyzers integrated into future power systems are likely to benefit from the ability to ramp operation up and down quickly and operate in a standby mode. This analysis forms a basis for comparative tradeoffs between electrolyzer capital cost, operating strategy, and system durability and demonstrates the importance of considering all three factors in technoeconomic analysis.
We extend our past cost analysis of gigawatt-scale solid oxide electrolysis (SOE) facilities that produce high purity hydrogen gas from water by estimating construction and operating costs for three new alternative design cases: (1) offsite feed steam generation; (2) near-atmospheric pressure (NAP) stack; and (3) onsite electric boiler feed steam generation. Pressure effects on hydrogen electrode-(cathode-)supported SOE cell (SOEC) stack performance are estimated for the same assumed cell and stack construction and used to determine facility-wide stack capital costs for achieving a fixed H2 production at different pressures. Modular balance of plant (BOP) process equipment capital costs are estimated for each new alternative design case using our past equipment sizing, design, and cost data and scaling relationships. Furthermore, we update BOP equipment sizing and design for the NAP case using Aspen®. Vendor quotes for electric boilers are used to estimate costs for the electric boiler design case. Factory and onsite assembly and installation costs for SOEC stacks and BOP equipment are calculated using our past simplified first-principles approach. First-of-a-kind (FOAK) and N th -of-a-kind (NOAK) production maturity cost estimates are included for all results. The case with NAP stacks offers the lowest facility total capital cost (TCC, ~23% lower than base) while use of small electric boilers requires the highest TCC (~3% higher than base). H 2 production prices decrease from the base of ~$\$2.17$ /kgH 2 to ~$\$1.92$/kgH 2 for 1 GW e DC SIP facilities utilizing NAP stacks supplied by offsites steam situated in large modules and blocks for $\$0.030$/kWh e and $0.009/kWh t prices for electricity and thermal energy, respectively. We report all costs in 2021 US dollars.
A comprehensive systems code that includes a range of physics and engineering considerations along with a simplified costing model has been utilized to evaluate the primary cost drivers for a compact tokamak pilot plant. The systems code has been benchmarked against several tokamak reactor designs and is utilized with sophisticated optimization algorithms to develop optimal solutions for a set of user-specified assumptions and design constraints. Here, in contrast to previous models that have focused on the cost of electricity as the key cost metric, this study uses the estimated capital cost of the facility. The analysis suggests that a pilot plant with the following features may offer potential for a cost-attractive pilot plant: A ~ 3, H 98y2 > 1.5, P net = 200 MW, 𝜏 𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑠𝑒 ~ 1 to 2 h utilizing rare-earth barium copper oxide (REBCO) magnet technology and a plug-bucked central solenoid/toroidal field (CS/TF) magnet support structure. While REBCO magnets offer some advantages relative to Nb 3 Sn magnets in all cases, the most gain is obtained when combined with the plug-bucked CS/TF bucking solution. Pulsed operation reduces capital cost requirements relative to steady-state operation, especially at low confinement. Cost sensitivity studies indicate that there are significant cost uncertainties associated with the achievable confinement quality, tritium breeding capability, attainable thermal efficiency, and achievable neutron wall loading, suggesting that these areas are the most critical areas in reducing the cost risk for a compact tokamak pilot plant. Further cost sensitivity studies indicate that the estimated cost is most sensitive to the underlying cost of the magnetic coils, providing further impetus to better establish cost-effective means for producing fusion magnets.
This paper presents a techno-economic assessment of adding state-of-the-art solvent-based CO 2 capture technologies to greenfield steam methane reforming (SMR)-based H 2 production plants and quantifies the impacts of improvements in CO 2 capture technology. Current conventional capture technologies are reviewed, and future technologies in intermediate and long-term scenarios are analyzed. The results show that adding significantly more efficient solvent-based capture technologies leads to an equivalent rate of natural gas consumption as that of a conventional SMR plant without capture, despite capturing most of the CO 2 and producing the same amount of H 2 . Overall, improvements in reboiler duty and reductions in capital costs can significantly reduce the cost of H 2 production and cost of capture. Particularly, the reboiler duty of pre-combustion capture and the capital cost of post-combustion capture have the greatest impact. Based on the results, research goals are suggested. Solvent development is recommended—particularly pre-combustion solvents—for reducing the reboiler duties, and process schemes to reduce the capital costs. Costlier but more efficient solvents can be considered. A sensitivity analysis using natural gas price shows that technological improvements can reduce the impacts of high natural gas prices. The degree of economic feasibility of CO 2 capture increases with improvements to the capture technology.
With increased penetration of subsidized variable renewable energy (VRE) resources and competition from low natural gas prices, existing light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) are struggling to remain economically competitive. This work examines the potential economic competitiveness of various thermal energy storage (TES) technologies when coupled directly or indirectly with a NPP. To highlight their relative economic competitiveness, we contrast several energy storage solutions in stochastic dispatch optimization. We leverage data from recent work analyzing a range of TES technologies with varying capital costs, performance, and technology readiness level (TRL) to establish our case. We explore inserting these technologies into an electricity market with existing nuclear generation and large projected variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration. Although these technologies' projected capital costs may make them unlikely candidates in their current state, this analysis demonstrates a high-fidelity techno-economic analysis of energy storage. Furthermore, as the projected cost of energy storage technologies evolves, this analysis sets a precedent for similar future investigations. One region with projected trends that may be unfavorable for existing nuclear capacity is the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) market. New York state’s baseload generation has been historically provided by fossil-fired and nuclear assets. However, amid economic pressures from subsidized VREs and low natural gas prices, the state has recently deactivated Indian Point nuclear power plant units 2 and 3. Furthermore, the state plans to meet its zero-emission generation target by 2040 by replacing fossil-fired capacity with significant investments in VRE resources like wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage. Increased intermittent resource penetration lowers the baseload power requirement, adding further economic pressure to the state’s three remaining NPPs still in operation. With three NPPs still in operation in New York, this work analyzes potential economic benefits to NPPs on the New York grid when directly or indirectly coupled with various TES technologies. This work requires two modeling steps to analyze the potential economic benefits of various system configurations of the TES directly or indirectly coupled with nuclear. First, this analysis leverages capacity expansion modeling by experts at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Using their deterministic capacity expansion model, U.S. Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (US-REGEN), EPRI analysts evaluated the capacity and generation evolution of the New York state energy market under four projection scenarios. These four projection scenarios were developed to represent the potential evolution of the capacity and generation in NYISO from 2015 to 2050 under various economic, technology, and policy constraints. The results from these capacity expansion models are then used as boundary conditions in the second modeling step. The second modeling step uses the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) for a set of stochastic techno-economic analyses (STEAs) to investigate the potential increase in the economic viability of various configurations of the TES. With no current capacity expansion capabilities, HERON takes the data generated from US-REGEN for 2050 to generate synthetic load, solar, and wind data. Then HERON economically optimizes the capacity and dispatch of the various TES configurations. The potential economic benefit is the differential net present value (NPV) of the TES configurations from the no-TES baseline. As a stochastic techno-economic analysis package, HERON introduces uncertainty into the economic metrics, while US-REGEN trades resolution for reduced computational complexity. Using HERON also allows the modeling of direct thermal coupling, a feature not common in capacity and dispatch models. As expected, with high capital costs, the costs of introducing energy storage for all the technologies considered outweighed the potential economic benefit of this strategy for flexible plant operation. The benefit of this analysis is primarily in demonstrating a workflow that examines innovative solutions to increase NPP revenue via TES coupling. HERON’s stochastic capacity and dispatch optimization process used in this work has proven an effective tool in observing and evaluating the impact of introducing storage technologies in a grid energy system.
In 2018, nuclear energy generated 55% of United States’ and one third of the world’s carbon free electricity, making nuclear energy a key tool in efforts to mitigate climate change before 2050. However, the current nuclear technology, light water reactors (LWRs), is limited to 300°C, so it cannot be used to decarbonize industrial process heat which accounts for 12% of US greenhouse gas emissions. High temperature gas reactors (HTGRs) can meet the high temperature demand with carbon free nuclear heat. The estimated cost of HTGRs, such as the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP), are even higher than state-of-the-art LWRs. In this paper, we expanded our nuclear cost estimating tool to include HTGRs and find that the NGNP overnight capital costs were 32% higher than an advanced LWR per unit capacity. The higher cost will naturally result in larger risk to cost overrun as recently experienced by larger LWRs in western nations. With a design-to-build mindset to minimize cost and construction risk, we introduce the horizontal, compact HTGR (HC-HTGR). The reactor core and steam generator are mounted horizontally on rails and in-line with one another, decreasing the size of the reactor building relative to the power capacity four times when compared to traditional HTGRs. The HC-HTGR reduced overnight civil structure costs by 42%, indirect costs by 38%, and total capital costs by 20% from NGNP. We discussed the required engineering of new systems for the HC-HTGR including vessel supports, the reactor cavity cooling system, and steam generator design. Finally, we estimated the fuel and operations costs of the HC-HTGR, and a survey of low-carbon industrial process heat technology showed the HC-HTGR can deliver a highly competitive levelized cost of heat in the range of $6.13–12.48/GJ.
Hydrogen is a versatile energy carrier that is used in a wide variety of chemical and industrial processes. Producing hydrogen using electrolysis can enable integration of multiple sectors including electricity, heating, and industrial sectors; however, the cost of producing hydrogen from electrolysis remains a challenge for encouraging greater adoption. With growing amounts of renewable generation on the California grid, there is downward pressure on wholesale electricity prices, particularly during the afternoon from photovoltaics (PV). These lower, or even potentially negative prices, challenge the business cases for new and existing PV plants. In addition, as the grid transitions to less flexible generation, there is greater need for system flexibility. To help improve the economics for both solar PV and hydrogen production using electrolyzers, we explore the benefit of combining PV and electrolysis systems. The optimal breakeven hydrogen production cost for six unique market participation configurations is calculated at six candidate locations where PV is already installed. The six market configurations include islanded, separated, retail, net energy metering (NEM), hybrid retail/wholesale and wholesale. Using the Revenue Operation and Device Optimization Model (RODeO) model, the optimal breakeven hydrogen price over the lifetime of the equipment is calculated. The cost includes production, storage, and compression in preparation for gaseous delivery trucks. Revenue streams include the sale of hydrogen, low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credits, renewable electricity sold to the grid, and Renewable Energy Credits (REC). The costs included are the electricity costs, capital and fixed operation and maintenance cost (FOM) for the electrolyzer, PV, and storage and compression systems as well as taxes and financing costs. In addition, cost reductions are achieved through retail and wholesale rate optimization, by which electricity is purchased at the lowest price and sold, if possible, at the highest price. For all locations, the breakeven hydrogen production cost results show that, in the order of decreasing cost, the system configurations are islanded (highest), separated, NEM, retail, hybrid retail/wholesale, and wholesale (lowest). The resulting system design balances between the capital and maintenance cost components, the operation costs (i.e., electricity costs) and the additional market revenues. The integration of solar PV and electrolysis is shown to provide a mutually beneficial relationship. For PV, integration with electrolysis offers the potential to hedge against wholesale market price volatility, and integration with electrolysis may offer the potential to defer or avoid transmission investment to deliver power to the point-of-use and instead use it on-site. When compared with SMR without considering any renewable hydrogen premiums, this study finds that PV + Electrolysis systems with current costs are likely not competitive; however, with cost reductions for electrolysis equipment consistent with DOE projections, it was found that systems with wholesale market access would be competitive, largely on account of both low capital costs and low-cost electricity. The electrolysis units can provide greater flexibility than is required based on retail rate optimization, so there is an opportunity for a utility or CAISO to increase system flexibility with PV + Electrolysis systems in return for commensurate compensation. In this way, there are potentially several solutions that fall between the hybrid configuration and the wholesale configuration that could provide sufficient compensation for a PV + Electrolysis unit to compete with SMR while also providing greater flexibility to the grid.
A case study analysis was performed to evaluate nuclear-powered synthetic fuel production in the midwestern United States (U.S.). A Fischer-Tropsch (FT) fuel synthesis plant design was used as the basis for the analysis. The FT plant design was configured to produce a product slate consisting of diesel fuel, jet fuel, and motor gasoline blend stocks from carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and hydrogen (H 2 ) feedstocks. The CO 2 feedstock for the FT plant was assumed to be sourced from biorefineries in the region around a Midwest light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plant (NPP). The analysis specifies that power from the LWR is used to produce H 2 via high-temperature steam electrolysis and to operate the FT synfuel production plant. Capital costs were estimated for the FT plant while capital costs for the electrolysis plant were based on previous Idaho National Laboratory (INL) studies. In addition to labor and maintenance costs for the FT and electrolysis plants, operating costs also include the costs for CO 2 feedstock transport. An analysis was performed to determine the cost of transporting CO 2 from the distributed biorefinery sources to the centralized fuel synthesis plant as a function of the synfuel plant capacity and corresponding CO 2 demand. The primary revenue streams are associated with sales of the synthetic fuel products. The synthetic fuel products will likely follow the same market trends as the conventional fuel products. The synfuel price data was thus based on projections made by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2021 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for conventional fuel products minus federal and state taxes, as well as marketing and distribution costs. The economic analysis also considered cases that included and excluded revenues from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) clean hydrogen production tax credit (PTC) of $\$ $3.00/kg for the first ten years of operation. The economic analysis calculated the net present value (NPV) for cases involving steady-state synfuel production for comparison with the NPV for a business-as-usual case in which NPP continues to sell only electric power to the grid. A synfuel production “Reference Case” was considered in addition to sensitivity cases in which the plant capacity, electricity price, and synthetic fuel product prices were perturbed. The synfuel production Reference Case considered a scenario in which the electrolysis and synfuel plants utilized a combined electrical load of 1000 megawatt electrical (MWe) from the LWR with the balance of the LWR power output being sold to the electric grid. The economic analysis suggests that the synfuel production Reference Case evaluated in this analysis would lead to considerable economic potential for near-term deployment of a nuclear-based synfuel production plant. Specifically, the economic analysis suggests that the deployment of a 1000 megawatt (MW) nuclear-powered synfuel plant could result in a NPV increase of approximately $\$ $1.7 billion for a case with no clean synfuel price premium relative to conventional petroleum fuels when accounting for the additional revenues from the 2022 IRA clean hydrogen PTCs of $\$ $3/kg. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of perturbation of selected model input parameters on the NPV for the synfuel production Reference Case. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the plant capacity has the largest impact on the differential NPV, with a smaller synfuel production capacity resulting in a decrease in revenue when a larger fraction of the power from the NPP is sold to the grid and a smaller fraction of the power is used to produce synthetic fuel products. The synfuel product pricing has the next largest impact on the differential NPV, with lower synfuel prices resulting in decreased NPV from decreased synfuel sales revenue while higher synfuel prices result in increased NPV from increased synfuel sales revenue. Electricity pricing has a smaller effect on the NPV than the fuel sales price since, in the Reference Case, most of the energy from the NPP is used for synfuel production and a smaller amount of the system revenues are associated with electrical power sales. However, the electricity price sensitivity does indicate that the Synfuel Integrated Energy System (IES) would have a greater NPV than the business-as-usual case (e.g., grid power sales only) when electricity market prices are low, suggesting that synfuel production could provide a strategy for decreasing the economic risks to NPPs posed by a loss of revenues attributed to falling electricity market prices.