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DOE OSTI2024

MARVEL Technical Overview: Breakdown of cost and scope growth through 90% Final Design

This report presents a breakdown of cost and scope growth for the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) project through the design phase, and includes observations, lessons learned, and the results from an independent project assessment. It presents the status and history of the project. Technology maturity is considered in high-level, qualitative comparison to other microreactor design efforts. Its purpose is to record MARVEL’s evolution and lessons learned from the planning and design phases through completion of 90% final design. Analyses included a detailed review of project cost, schedule, and periodic project reports and management documents. The Primary Coolant Apparatus Test (PCAT) is specifically highlighted. It was concluded that MARVEL would have benefited from more extensive planning early in the project to better define cost and schedule to provide more certainty in the total project cost and delivery date. Modest cost and schedule improvements may have been possible, but compared qualitatively, MARVEL’s total cost and schedule performance are consistent with that of other efforts currently underway. Better planning would have provided more certainty, improved risk mitigations, and potentially eliminated delays due to funding shortfalls. A recommended path forward is presented that addresses recommendations in the independent project assessment.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1994

Strategies for Tailoring Reliability Test Standards

The paper suggests a simple strategy for the tailoring of the ground testing of unmanned spacecraft including considerations of project costs and risks. It is simply stated in five steps: (1) access the specific project's requirements and constraints, (2) use the existing comprehensive quality assurance programs as a guide, (3) prioritize the risks, (4) prioritize the tests, and (5) tailor the test program as appropriate. This approach addresses the specific project needs without unduly compromising the wealth of accumulated flight experience. Tailoring falls into three categories: tailoring of test levels, tailoring of test configurations, and tailoring of test techniques. Three examples are included to illustrate these types of tailoring activities. This paper on stratagies for tailoring spacecraft standards both advocates for and cautions against tailoring depending on the situation. Applied sensibly and carefully, tailoring can improve the test effectiveness and relax constraints on certain project resources. On the other hand, tailoring a product assurance program usually incurres some element of risk and may increase project costs.

tailoring↗

NASA NTRS1973

Application of ERTS-1 data to the protection and management of New Jersey's coastal environment

The author has identified the following significant results. Rates of erosion and accretion of the shoreline are being calculated for two test areas along the New Jersey coast. Measurements are made on aerial photographs taken over the last 20 years and processed by computer. The rates are presented in graphic form on an ERTS-1 base map at a scale of 1:125,000. These rates are being used to determine the effectiveness of various shore protection structures at preventing sand removal and encouraging sand accumulation. Information on maintenance and construction expenditures is being used to obtain a cost effectiveness ratio for various shore protection devices. The relationship of erosion rates, property value, and project cost are all criteria for selection of site type and extent of a shore protection structure. Compilation and evaluation of historical data will identify past decision making patterns. The effectiveness of these decisions with respect to erosion rates, property value, and project cost, can be used as an added criteria for future allocation of money and the selection of site and type of structure to be built.

Yunghans, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Labor Estimation and Trending in an Operations Environment

Accurate cost estimation for future work is important for ensuring that organizations have the personnel and resources needed to complete a task successfully. Operations support in particular provides additional challenges for estimating cost. Unlike manufacturing-based work, it may be difficult to derive a "cost per product," and projects that appear to be similar may have drastically different underlying assumptions. In addition, for critical operations, a certain level of adaptability to changing circumstances is expected. Responding to contingencies or anomalies requires additional support and troubleshooting, and could result in increases to project cost. Labor estimation is one of the most important inputs for estimating the cost of an operations-based project, especially in a pre-established facility. Various methods are needed to develop reliable estimates. These methods include a bottom-up summarization of known or expected work items, and a top-down estimate generated by trending and scaling actual labor from past analogous operations support.

Laing, Jason↗

DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic R&D Portfolio Management Applied to Energy Storage

Here this paper proposes a methodology to analyze the potential of several alternative technologies in advancing a research and development portfolio. The methodology considers technology maturation, use case requirements, performance goals, cost projections, and existing research and development (R&D) efforts to predict the impact of various R&D investment tracks across several energy storage technologies. Technology maturation and cost projections are derived from a probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation, yielding results that incorporate uncertainty in modeling the impact of future R&D. This framework allows the researcher to perform a robust sensitivity analysis to uncover critical pathways and areas where investment will have a high impact.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1984

Sensitivities of projected 1980 photovoltaic system costs to major system cost drivers

The sensitivity of projected 1990 photovoltaic (PV) system costs to major system cost drivers was examined. It includes: (1) module costs and module efficiencies; (2) area related balance of system (BOS) costs; (3) inverter costs and efficiencies; and (4) module marketing and distribution markups and system integration fees. Recent PV system cost experiences and the high costs of electricity from the systems are reviewed. The 1990 system costs are projected for five classes of PV systems, including four ground mounted 5-MWp systems and one residential 5-kWp system. System cost projections are derived by first projecting costs and efficiencies for all subsystems and components. Sensitivity analyses reveal that reductions in module cost and engineering and system integration fees seem to have the greatest potential for contributing to system cost reduction. Although module cost is clearly the prime candidate for fruitful PV research and development activities, engineering and system integration fees seem to be more amenable to reduction through appropriate choice of system size and market strategy. Increases in inverter and module efficiency yield significant benefits, especially for systems with high area related costs.

Zimmerman, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Concentrator enhanced solar arrays design study

The analysis and preliminary design of a 25 kW concentrator enhanced lightweight flexible solar array are presented. The study was organized into five major tasks: (1) assessment and specification of design requirements; (2) mechanical design; (3) electric design; (4) concentrator design; and (5) cost projection. The tasks were conducted in an iterative manner so as to best derive a baseline design selection. The objectives of the study are discussed and comparative configurations and mass data on the SEP (Solar Electric Propulsion) array design, concentrator design options and configuration/mass data on the selected concentrator enhanced solar array baseline design are presented. Design requirements supporting design analysis and detailed baseline design data are discussed. The results of the cost projection analysis and new technology are also discussed.

Lott, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Silicon web process development

Silicon dendritic web, a single crystal ribbon shaped during growth by crystallographic forces and surface tension (rather than dies), is a highly promising base material for efficient low cost solar cells. The form of the product smooth, flexible strips 100 to 200 microns thick, conserves expensive silicon and facilitates automation of crystal growth and the subsequent manufacturing of solar cells. These characteristics, coupled with the highest demonstrated ribbon solar cell efficiency-15.5%-make silicon web a leading candidate to achieve, or better, the 1986 Low Cost Solar Array (LSA) Project cost objective of 50 cents per peak watt of photovoltaic output power. The main objective of the Web Program, technology development to significantly increase web output rate, and to show the feasibility for simultaneous melt replenishment and growth, have largely been accomplished. Recently, web output rates of 23.6 sq cm/min, nearly three times the 8 sq cm/min maximum rate of a year ago, were achieved. Webs 4 cm wide or greater were grown on a number of occassions.

Duncan, C. S.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Military markets for solar thermal electric power systems

The Department of Defense maintains an inventory of over 1,800 MW of engine-generators 15 KW and larger, with an estimated procurement rate of over 140 MW/year. Nearly the entire requirement could be met by advanced heat engines of the types being developed as point-focussing, distributed receiver power plants. A conceptual system consisting of a heat engine which efficiently burns liquid fossil or synthetic fuels, with a 'solarization kit' for conversion to hybrid solar operation could meet existing DOD requirements for new systems which are quieter, lighter, and multi-fueled. An estimated 24 percent (33 MW/year) or more could operationally benefit from the solar option. Baseline cost projections indicate levelized energy cost goals of 210 to 120 mills/KWh (15 to 1000 KW systems). Fuel cost escalation is the major factor affecting the value of the solar option. A baseline calculation for fuel at $0.59/gal in spring, 1979, escalating at 8 percent above general inflation indicates a value of $2700/KWe for a solarization kit.

Hauger, J. S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Project Antares: A low cost modular launch vehicle for the future

The single stage to orbit launch vehicle Antares is based upon the revolutionary concept of modularity, enabling the Antares to efficiently launch communications satellites, as well as heavy payloads, into Earth's orbit and beyond. The basic unit of the modular system, a single Antares vehicle, is aimed at launching approximately 10,000 kg into low Earth orbit (LEO). When coupled with a Centaur upper stage it is capable of placing 3500 kg into geostationary orbit. The Antares incorporates a reusable engine, the Dual Mixture Ratio Engine (DMRE), as its propulsive device. This enables Antares to compete and excel in the satellite launch market by dramatically reducing launch costs. Antares' projected launch costs are $1340 per kg to LEO which offers a tremendous savings over launch vehicles available today. Inherent in the design is the capability to attach several of these vehicles together to provide heavy lift capability. Any number of these vehicles, up to seven, can be attached depending on the payload and mission requirements. With a seven vehicle configuration Antares's modular concept provides a heavy lift capability of approximately 70,000 kg to LEO. This expandability allows for a wider range of payload options such as large Earth satellites, Space Station Freedom support, and interplanetary spacecraft, and also offers a significant cost savings over a mixed fleet based on different launch vehicles.

Aarnio, Steve↗

DOE OSTI2022

Prefabricated Standard Modular Hydropower Installations for Low-cost Small Hydropower

The goal of the present project was to investigate the potential savings in greenfield hydropower project costs across sites having vastly different characteristics. Littoral Power Systems, Inc. (LPS) undertook the project described herein to explore the promise of Standard Modular Hydropower (SMH) to transform the processes of site identification, conceptual design, detailed design, and construction planning to support low- cost, environmentally attractive development of small hydropower facilities at new stream- reaches. This report includes descriptions of the work to develop these processes, the resulting facility designs achieved using these processes and the projected economics. Installation cost estimates for the resulting conceptual greenfield facility design at two different locations come in at $\$3,419$/kW for Balcony Falls and $\$2,124$/kW for LPS 566. The installation time from site preparation to commissioning-ready is estimated to be 58 weeks for the conceptual facility at Balcony Falls and 42 weeks for the conceptual facility at LPS 566. A real challenge to any hydropower facility – not only the two cases studied here – is that environmental and social conditions can change, and as such, the facility may be required to change. The h-Modulor modules connect uniquely and are structurally independent, enabling site configurations to be changed on the fly, as needed. These results show that LPS's h-Modulor SMH approach delivers an attractive balance between efficiency, economics, and environmental sustainability for small hydro greenfield sites.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2009

Low Cost Rapid Response Spacecraft, (LCRRS): A Research Project in Low Cost Spacecraft Design and Fabrication in a Rapid Prototyping Environment

The Low Cost Rapid Response Spacecraft (LCRRS) is an ongoing research development project at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), Moffett Field, California. The prototype spacecraft, called Cost Optimized Test for Spacecraft Avionics and Technologies (COTSAT) is the first of what could potentially be a series of rapidly produced low-cost satellites. COTSAT has a target launch date of March 2009 on a SpaceX Falcon 9 launch vehicle. The LCRRS research system design incorporates use of COTS (Commercial Off The Shelf), MOTS (Modified Off The Shelf), and GOTS (Government Off The Shelf) hardware for a remote sensing satellite. The design concept was baselined to support a 0.5 meter Ritchey-Chretien telescope payload. This telescope and camera system is expected to achieve 1.5 meter/pixel resolution. The COTSAT team is investigating the possibility of building a fully functional spacecraft for $500,000 parts and $2,000,000 labor. Cost is dramatically reduced by using a sealed container, housing the bus and payload subsystems. Some electrical and RF designs were improved/upgraded from GeneSat-1 heritage systems. The project began in January 2007 and has yielded two functional test platforms. It is expected that a flight-qualified unit will be finished in December 2008. Flight quality controls are in place on the parts and materials used in this development with the aim of using them to finish a proto-flight satellite. For LEO missions the team is targeting a mission class requiring a minimum of six months lifetime or more. The system architecture incorporates several design features required by high reliability missions. This allows for a true skunk works environment to rapidly progress toward a flight design. Engineering and fabrication is primarily done in-house at NASA Ames with flight certifications on materials. The team currently employs seven Full Time Equivalent employees. The success of COTSATs small team in this effort can be attributed to highly cross trained engineering team. The engineers on the team are capable of functioning in two to three engineering disciplines which allows highly efficient interdisciplinary engineering collaboration. NASA Ames is actively proposing mission concepts to use the COTSAT platform to accomplish science. If the COTSAT team validates this approach, it will allow the possibility for remote sensing missions to produce a high science yield for minimal cost and reduced schedule. Another aim of this approach is to yield an accelerated pathway from a Phase A study to mission launch. Leaders in the aerospace industry have shown interest in this methodology. Several visits and tours have been given in the lab. Although the concept of low-cost development is initially met with skepticism from some within the prohibitive aerospace industry, the project's efforts have been highly praised for the accomplishments met within a limited time and budget. Overall the development has progressed tremendously well and the team is answering critical questions for current and future low-cost small satellite developments. COTSAT subsystems are not limited to a specific weight class and could be adapted to produce smaller platforms and to fit various launch vehicles.

Spremo, Stevan↗

NASA NTRS1977

A life cycle cost economics model for automation projects with uniformly varying operating costs

The described mathematical model calculates life-cycle costs for projects with operating costs increasing or decreasing linearly with time. The cost factors involved in the life-cycle cost are considered, and the errors resulting from the assumption of constant rather than uniformly varying operating costs are examined. Parameters in the study range from 2 to 30 years, for project life; 0 to 15% per year, for interest rate; and 5 to 90% of the initial operating cost, for the operating cost gradient. A numerical example is presented.

Remer, D. S.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Michigan resource inventories: Characteristics and costs of selected projects using high altitude color infrared imagery. Remote Sensing Project

The procedures and costs associated with mapping land cover/use and forest resources from high altitude color infrared (CIR) imagery are documented through an evaluation of several inventory efforts. CIR photos (1:36,000) were used to classify the forests of Mason County, Michigan into six species groups, three stocking levels, and three maturity classes at a cost of $4.58/sq. km. The forest data allow the pinpointing of marketable concentrations of selected timber types, and facilitate the establishment of new forest management cooperatives. Land cover/use maps and area tabulations were prepared from small scale CIR photography at a cost of $4.28/sq. km. and $3.03/sq. km. to support regional planning programs of two Michigan agencies. procedures were also developed to facilitate analysis of this data with other natural resource information. Eleven thematic maps were generated from Windsor Township, Michigan at a cost of $1,500 by integrating grid-geocoded land cover/use, soils, topographic, and well log data using an analytical computer program.

Enslin, W. R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

NASA Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM): Capabilities and Results

NAFCOM is a parametric estimating tool for space hardware. Uses cost estimating relationships (CERs) which correlate historical costs to mission characteristics to predict new project costs. It is based on historical NASA and Air Force space projects. It is intended to be used in the very early phases of a development project. NAFCOM can be used at the subsystem or component levels and estimates development and production costs. NAFCOM is applicable to various types of missions (crewed spacecraft, uncrewed spacecraft, and launch vehicles). There are two versions of the model: a government version that is restricted and a contractor releasable version.

McAfee, Julie↗

NASA NTRS1980

Cost of Czochralski wafers as a function of diameter

The impact of diameter in the range of 10 to 15 cm on the cost of wafers sliced from Czochralski ingots was analyzed. Increasing silicon waste and decreasing ingot cost with increasing ingot size were estimated along with projected costs. Results indicate a small but continuous decrease in sheet cost with increasing ingot size in this size range. Sheet costs including silicon are projected to be $50 to $60/sq m (1980 $) depending upon technique used.

Leipold, M. H.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Financing Microgrids in the Federal Sector

Recent high-impact events such as hurricanes and wildfires highlight the need for energy system resilience. One potential impact of these events is the loss of utility grid power to federal sites, negatively affecting the ability to carry out their missions. Depending on the need to sustain critical functions, it may be important to continue operations during an outage of the electric grid, or at least have power restored quickly after the event. One approach to addressing this need is through a microgrid. Microgrids can provide a more reliable solution than the traditional approach of using a backup generator at individual buildings. A microgrid can enhance a site’s electrical power system during normal operations, as well as provide reliable backup power to critical loads when electric utility power is interrupted. Many times, certain components of a microgrid (and potentially the entire system) can be justified economically and paid for out of energy savings or avoided costs. In cases where savings can cover the project costs, one of several privately financed procurement mechanisms may be used to implement the project. However, it can be difficult to achieve enough savings and avoided costs to cover the entire microgrid system, so leveraging these avoided costs in combination with appropriated funds may be necessary to implement the full project. This paper explores procurement options and agreements that may be useful to federal agencies interested in implementing microgrids at their sites. Microgrid complexities, implementation considerations, and suggestions to get started are also discussed. This information will be most useful to agencies when they are exploring electric energy system resilience options and/or considering different procurement options to meet their needs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

A System-Level Cost Modeling Framework for Design for Remanufacturing: A Case Study of an Agricultural Machine Transmission

Remanufacturing offers significant environmental and economic benefits by restoring end-of-life products to as-new conditions. Although extensive research has been conducted on the topic, the adoption of remanufacturing practices remains limited across various industries. A primary barrier to broader implementation is the substantial upfront investment required, which necessitates reliable cost modeling to justify potential future savings. Most existing models treat components independently and ignore inter-component dependencies. We develop a probabilistic, system-level cost modeling framework that integrates reliability, reusability, and a dependency matrix to capture cascading effects across components over multiple life cycles. Our model identifies those critical components that maximize remanufacturing benefits across a product's many lives. A toy example and an industry case study (John Deere PowrQuad transmission subassembly) illustrate how design alternatives affect cumulative cost. Using a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) to perform life cycle cost analysis on the system with different design changes, we show the normalized average cost savings after three remanufacturing cycles. Accounting for dependencies meaningfully alters cost projections and ignoring them underestimates accumulated cost by up to 20% in our examples. Furthermore, the results of our study confirm that accounting for component interdependencies is necessary to produce cost estimates that meet industry standards.

Life Cycle Analysis and Design↗