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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1991

Space station internal propagation

The Space Station Freedom (SSF) is planned with a wireless communication system in place for the transmission of information between crew members on board. The clarity of transmission is paramount to an effective system of communication. A short overview is presented of the system including the requirements of interest, and a statement of the problem. The theory used to solve the problem is explored. The results given are for the experiments performed on a mockup of the proposed structure at NASA-Marshall. The requirements on the signal level are that there is a 45 dB signal to noise ratio from end to end, and that coverage over 99 pct. of the volume be maintained. The Rice probability distribution function, a simple extension of the Rayleigh distribution, is used to estimate the field strength inside a volume, where a significant line of sight from the transmitter to the receiver exists. For the SSF, this distribution will correspond to the summation of a coherent line of sight path between the transmitter and the receiver and an incoherent portion. The incoherent portion is the sum of reflections from the walls and the equipment inside the SSF. The Rice distribution was found to be the optimal distribution from the results.

Richie, J. E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

3D Multiresolution Velocity Model Fusion with Probability Graphical Models

ABSTRACT The variability in spatial resolution of seismic velocity models obtained via tomographic methodologies is attributed to many factors, including inversion strategies, ray-path coverage, and data integrity. Integration of such models, with distinct resolutions, is crucial during the refinement of community models, thereby enhancing the precision of ground-motion simulations. Toward this goal, we introduce the probability graphical model (PGM), combining velocity models with heterogeneous resolutions and nonuniform data point distributions. The PGM integrates data relations across varying resolution subdomains, enhancing detail within low-resolution (LR) domains by utilizing information and prior knowledge from high-resolution (HR) subdomains through a maximum posterior problem. Assessment of efficacy, utilizing both 2D and 3D velocity models—consisting of synthetic checkerboard models and a fault-zone model from Ridgecrest, California—demonstrates noteworthy improvements in accuracy, compared to state-of-the-art fusion techniques. Specifically, we find reductions of 30% and 44% in computed travel-time residuals for 2D and 3D models, respectively, as compared to conventional smoothing techniques. Unlike conventional methods, the PGM’s adaptive weight selection facilitates preserving and learning details from complex, nonuniform HR models and applies the enhancements to the LR background domain.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

NASA NTRS1984

Segmented testing

The fraction of faults detected for a digital network is frequently high for the first few input combinations applied out of a set of test vectors. When the particular ordering of test patterns does not appreciably change the shape of the coverage curve, there appears to be an advantage to splitting the test into segments which are applied at different times. It is shown that the expected time to error detection and the probability of an undetected double error can be reduced. The amount of reduction is dependent on the shape of the fault coverage curve. It is conjectured that such a reduction can be obtained for VLSI networks.

Robinson, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Segmented testing

Robinson, J. P.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Projected network performance for next-generation xenon monitoring systems

Next-generation radioxenon monitoring systems are reaching maturity and are expected to improve certain aspects of performance in verifying the absence of nuclear tests. To predict the improvement in detecting and locating nuclear releases, thousands of releases all over the globe were simulated and the global detection probability was calculated. This was done for the International Monitoring System network of noble gas samplers as it currently exists (25 certified stations), and how it would be for potential future network sizes of 39 and 79 stations. The probability of detection was calculated for releases ranging from 10 10 Bq to 10 16 Bq of 133 Xe and presented as coverage maps and global integrals for both current and next-generation monitoring systems. Similarly, the number of detecting stations and the number of detecting samples were tabulated to elucidate the possibilities for enhanced location capability. Improvements in global detection coverage are maximized at different release sizes in a way that depends on the station density. For example, for releases of 3×10 14 Bq and 39 stations, the detection probability would rise from 60% to 70% with next-generation systems, while for releases of 10 13 Bq and 79 stations, it would rise from 37% to 52%. Achieving an average of two detecting stations requires a 1015 Bq release for a 39-station network and a 10 14 Bq release for a 79-station network. The largest impact of using next-generation systems may be the confidence, failure tolerance, and location capability that arise from obtaining multiple samples associated with a single release event.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2013

Transfer Trajectory Design for the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) Mission

The Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) mission will determine the history of the loss of volatiles from the Martian atmosphere from a highly inclined elliptical orbit. MAVEN will launch from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on an Atlas-V 401 during an extended 36-day launch period opening November 18, 2013. The MAVEN Navigation and Mission Design team performed a Monte Carlo analysis of the Type-II transfer to characterize; dispersions of the arrival B-Plane, trajectory correction maneuvers (TCMs), and the probability of Mars impact. This paper presents detailed analysis of critical MOI event coverage, maneuver constraints, deltaV-99 budgets, and Planetary Protection requirements.

Folta, David↗

DOE OSTI2021

Staged progression epidemic models for the transmission of invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) with treatment

We develop and analyze a stage-progression compartmental model to study the emerging invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. iNTS bloodstream infections are often fatal, and the diverse and non-specific clinical features of iNTS make it difficult to diagnose. We focus our study on identifying approaches that can reduce the incidence of new infections. In sub-Saharan Africa, transmission and mortality are correlated with the ongoing HIV epidemic and severe malnutrition. We use our model to quantify the impact that increasing antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV infected adults and reducing malnutrition in children would have on mortality from iNTS in the population. We consider immunocompromised subpopulations in the region with major risk factors for mortality, such as malaria and malnutrition among children and HIV infection and ART coverage in both children and adults. We parameterize the progression rates between infection stages using the branching probabilities and estimated time spent at each stage. We interpret the basic reproduction number R 0 as the total contribution from an infinite infection loop produced by the asymptomatic carriers in the infection chain. The results indicate that the asymptomatic HIV+ adults without ART serve as the driving force of infection for the iNTS epidemic. We conclude that the worst disease outcome is among the pediatric population, which has the highest infection rates and death counts. Our sensitivity analysis indicates that the most effective strategies to reduce iNTS mortality in the studied population are to improve the ART coverage among high-risk HIV+ adults and reduce malnutrition among children.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1995

Is coverage a factor in non-Gaussianity of IMF parameters?

Recently, Feynman and Ruzmaikin (1994) showed that IMF parameters for the 1973 to 1990 period are not log-normally distributed as previously suggested by Burlaga and King (1979) for the data obtained over a shorter time period (1963-75). They studied the first four moments, namely: mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis. For a Gaussian distribution, moments higher than the variance should vanish. In particular, Feynman and Ruzmaikin obtained very high values of kurtosis during some periods of their analysis. We note that the coverage for IMF parameters is very uneven for the period analyzed by them, ranging from less than 40% to greater than 80%. So a question arises as to whether the amount of coverage is a factor in their analysis. We decided to test this for the B(sub z) component of IMF, since it is an effective geoactive parameter for short term disturbances. Like them, we used 1-hour averaged data available on the Omnitape. We studied the scatter plots of the annual mean values of B(sub z)(nT) and its kurtosis versus the percent coverage for the year. We obtain a correlation coefficient of 0.48 and 0.42 respectively for the 1973-90 period. The probability for a chance occurrence of these correlation coefficients for 18 pair of points is less than 8%. As a rough measure of skewness, we determined the percent asymmetry between the areas of the histograms representing the distributions of the positive and the negative values of B(sub z) and studied its correlation with the coverage for the year. This analysis yields a correlation coefficient of 0.41 When we extended the analysis for the whole period for which IMF data are available (1963-93) the corresponding correlation coefficients are 0.59, 0.14, and 0.42. Our findings will be presented and discussed

Ahluwalia, H. S.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Detection of the earth with the SETI microwave observing system assumed to be operating out in the Galaxy

The maximum range is calculated at which radar signals from the earth could be detected by a search system similar to the NASA SETI Microwave Observing Project (SETI MOP) assumed to be operating out in the Galaxy. Figures are calculated for the Targeted Search and for the Sky Survey parts of the MOP, both planned to be operating in the 1990s. The probability of detection is calculated for the two most powerful transmitters, the planetary radar at Arecibo (Puerto Rico) and the ballistic missile early warning systems (BMEWSs), assuming that the terrestrial radars are only in the eavesdropping mode. It was found that, for the case of a single transmitter within the maximum range, the highest probability is for the sky survey detecting BMEWSs; this is directly proportional to BMEWS sky coverage and is therefore 0.25.

Billingham, John↗

NASA NTRS1994

Voids and constraints on nonlinear clustering of galaxies

Void statistics of the galaxy distribution in the Center for Astrophysics Redshift Survey provide strong constraints on galaxy clustering in the nonlinear regime, i.e., on scales R equal to or less than 10/h Mpc. Computation of high-order moments of the galaxy distribution requires a sample that (1) densely traces the large-scale structure and (2) covers sufficient volume to obtain good statistics. The CfA redshift survey densely samples structure on scales equal to or less than 10/h Mpc and has sufficient depth and angular coverage to approach a fair sample on these scales. In the nonlinear regime, the void probability function (VPF) for CfA samples exhibits apparent agreement with hierarchical scaling (such scaling implies that the N-point correlation functions for N greater than 2 depend only on pairwise products of the two-point function xi(r)) However, simulations of cosmological models show that this scaling in redshift space does not necessarily imply such scaling in real space, even in the nonlinear regime; peculiar velocities cause distortions which can yield erroneous agreement with hierarchical scaling. The underdensity probability measures the frequency of 'voids' with density rho less than 0.2 -/rho. This statistic reveals a paucity of very bright galaxies (L greater than L asterisk) in the 'voids.' Underdensities are equal to or greater than 2 sigma more frequent in bright galaxy samples than in samples that include fainter galaxies. Comparison of void statistics of CfA samples with simulations of a range of cosmological models favors models with Gaussian primordial fluctuations and Cold Dark Matter (CDM)-like initial power spectra. Biased models tend to produce voids that are too empty. We also compare these data with three specific models of the Cold Dark Matter cosmogony: an unbiased, open universe CDM model (omega = 0.4, h = 0.5) provides a good match to the VPF of the CfA samples. Biasing of the galaxy distribution in the 'standard' CDM model (omega = 1, b = 1.5; see below for definitions) and nonzero cosmological constant CDM model (omega = 0.4, h = 0.6 lambda(sub 0) = 0.6, b = 1.3) produce voids that are too empty. All three simulations match the observed VPF and underdensity probability for samples of very bright (M less than M asterisk = -19.2) galaxies, but produce voids that are too empty when compared with samples that include fainter galaxies.

Vogeley, Michael S.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Agent-based Disease Surveillance and Transmission Model

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has driven a need for models that can predict transmission among populations and test the effectiveness of proposed interventions to control it such as testing, quarantining, vaccinations, and nonpharmaceutical interventions. Some questions of interest include:1. How rapidly will the virus spread if no action is taken? 2. How frequently should people be tested and quarantined if necessary? 3. Should unvaccinated persons be tested more frequently than the vaccinated? 4. If test results are delayed, how will that affect the spread? 5. How do test false negative rates affect the overall efficacy of testing programs? 6. How do constraints on testing resources impact the overall efficacy of testing programs? 7. How does the patient’s failure to recognize COVID symptoms and quarantine affect the spread? 8. What level of vaccination coverage is needed to suppress the epidemic? 9. What is the risk of a large outbreak (probability exceeding x infections)? 10. What is the cost effectiveness of interventions (dollars per avoided infection)? This report describes the structure of a discrete event simulation model that provides actionable information to address these questions. Parameter inputs and results of analyses have been reported in briefings provided to LLNL management and are not discussed here.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

National population mapping from sparse survey data: A hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to account for uncertainty

Population estimates are critical for government services, development projects, and public health campaigns. Such data are typically obtained through a national population and housing census. However, population estimates can quickly become inaccurate in localized areas, particularly where migration or displacement has occurred. Some conflict-affected and resource-poor countries have not conducted a census in over 10 y. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate population numbers in small areas based on enumeration data from sample areas and nationwide information about administrative boundaries, building locations, settlement types, and other factors related to population density. We demonstrated this model by estimating population sizes in every 10- m grid cell in Nigeria with national coverage. These gridded population estimates and areal population totals derived from them are accompanied by estimates of uncertainty based on Bayesian posterior probabilities. The model had an overall error rate of 67 people per hectare (mean of absolute residuals) or 43% (using scaled residuals) for predictions in out-of-sample survey areas (approximately 3 ha each), with increased precision expected for aggregated population totals in larger areas. This statistical approach represents a significant step toward estimating populations at high resolution with national coverage in the absence of a complete and recent census, while also providing reliable estimates of uncertainty to support informed decision making.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the Effect of Surface Platinum–Tin Alloys on Propane Dehydrogenation on Platinum–Tin Catalysts

Uncertainty analysis, reported experimental literature data, and density functional theory were synthesized to model the effect of surface tin coverage on platinum-based catalysts for nonoxidative propane dehydrogenation to propylene. Here, this study tests four different platinum–tin skin surface models as potential catalytic sites, Pt 3 Sn/Pt(100), PtSn/Pt(100), Pt 3 Sn/Pt(111), and Pt 2 Sn/Pt(211), and compares them to the corresponding pure Pt surface sites using an uncertainty analysis methodology that uses BEEF-vdW with its ensembles (BMwE) to generate the uncertainty for the energies of the intermediates and transition states. One experimental data set with two experimental observations, selectivity to propylene and turnover frequency of propylene, was used as a calibration data set to evaluate the impact of the experimental data on informing the models. This study finds that the prior model for Pt 3 Sn/Pt(100) is the most active and Pt 2 Sn/Pt(211) is the most selective toward propylene. Active sites on the (100) facet have the highest probability of being responsible for C 1 and C 2 product formations (C–C bond cleavage). Increasing the Sn coverage on the (100) surface facet to a PtSn/Pt(100) active site leads to a significantly reduced rate and might explain the experimentally observed higher selectivity of Sn-doped catalysts relative to pure Pt catalysts. Next, this study finds that for all surfaces, except PtSn/Pt(100), the rate-controlling steps are the initial dehydrogenation steps alongside some partially rate-controlling second dehydrogenation steps. For PtSn/Pt(100), only the initial terminal dehydrogenation step to CH 3 CH 2 CH 2 * and second dehydrogenation steps are rate-controlling. Next, the calibrated models for all surfaces were found to be selective toward propylene production and model the reported turnover frequency successfully. Nevertheless, Pt 2 Sn/Pt(211) emerges as the active site with some (minor) evidence as the main active site based on Jeffreys’ scale interpretation of Bayes factors. This observation agrees with prior studies that also found step sites to be most likely the most relevant active sites for pure Pt catalysts. Overall, the results indicate that tin, in addition to affecting the binding strength of the adsorbed species, prevents deeper dehydrogenation (reducing coking) and cracking reactions through increasing activation barriers for unwanted side reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1978

Synthetic aperture radar operator tactical target acquisition research

A radar target acquisition research study was conducted to access the effects of two levels of 13 radar sensor, display, and mission parameters on operator tactical target acquisition. A saturated fractional-factorial screening design was employed to examine these parameters. Data analysis computed ETA squared values for main and second-order effects for the variables tested. Ranking of the research parameters in terms of importance to system design revealed four variables (radar coverage, radar resolution/multiple looks, display resolution, and display size) accounted for 50 percent of the target acquisition probability variance.

Hershberger, M. L.↗

NASA NTRS1984

COSPAS-SARSAT Satellite Orbit Predictor. Volume 3

The satellite orbit predictor is a graphical aid for determining the relationship between the satellite (SARSAT or COSPAS) orbit, antenna coverage of the spacecraft and coverage of the LUTs. The predictor allows the user to quickly visualize if a selected position will probably be detected and is composed of a base map and a satellite track overlay for each satellite. Additionally, a table of equator crossings for each satellite is included.

Friedman, Morton L.↗

NASA NTRS1984

COSPAS-SARSAT Satellite Orbit Predictor, Vol 4

Friedman, Morton L.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Lightning mapper and the future

A trade-off analysis was completed that reveals how the lightning mapper detection efficiency will change as a function of interference filter bandwidth, pixel field of view, and telescope aperture. It is shown that the critical parameter on which we have minimum flexibility is filter band-width. The problem is that too narrow a filter bandwidth is incompatible with wide areal coverage. The trade-off analysis demonstrates that an 80 percent lightning detection efficiency will technically be relatively straight-forward, while a 90 percent detection efficiency will apparently be difficult to achieve. Three focal plane designs are currently under consideration. One would use a single large, solid state silicon integrating array with multiple output channels and off-the-focal-plane analog, time domain, background removing fibers. A second design would use the same technology, but the sensor would consist of up to four virtually independent focal plane arrays. This design reduces the areal coverage of each detector. Thus narrower interference filters could be utilized. Superior performance would be realized at a probable increase in cost. The final design would use a three-dimensional focal plane in order to perform background removal at the focal plane. Superior performance would be achieved along with reduced weight and power requirements. Unfortunately, this focal plane technology is still under development.

Christian, H. J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Analysis at Center and Sector Levels

This paper presents a detailed convective forecast accuracy analysis at center and sector levels. The study is aimed to provide more meaningful forecast verification measures to aviation community, as well as to obtain useful information leading to the improvements in the weather translation capacity models. In general, the vast majority of forecast verification efforts over past decades have been on the calculation of traditional standard verification measure scores over forecast and observation data analyses onto grids. These verification measures based on the binary classification have been applied in quality assurance of weather forecast products at the national level for many years. Our research focuses on the forecast at the center and sector levels. We calculate the standard forecast verification measure scores for en-route air traffic centers and sectors first, followed by conducting the forecast validation analysis and related verification measures for weather intensities and locations at centers and sectors levels. An approach to improve the prediction of sector weather coverage by multiple sector forecasts is then developed. The weather severe intensity assessment was carried out by using the correlations between forecast and actual weather observation airspace coverage. The weather forecast accuracy on horizontal location was assessed by examining the forecast errors. The improvement in prediction of weather coverage was determined by the correlation between actual sector weather coverage and prediction. observed and forecasted Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) data collected from June to September in 2007. CWAM zero-minute forecast data with aircraft avoidance probability of 60% and 80% are used as the actual weather observation. All forecast measurements are based on 30-minute, 60- minute, 90-minute, and 120-minute forecasts with the same avoidance probabilities. The forecast accuracy analysis for times under one-hour showed that the errors in intensity and location for center forecast are relatively low. For example, 1-hour forecast intensity and horizontal location errors for ZDC center were about 0.12 and 0.13. However, the correlation between sector 1-hour forecast and actual weather coverage was weak, for sector ZDC32, about 32% of the total variation of observation weather intensity was unexplained by forecast; the sector horizontal location error was about 0.10. The paper also introduces an approach to estimate the sector three-dimensional actual weather coverage by using multiple sector forecasts, which turned out to produce better predictions. Using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model for this approach, the correlations between actual observation and the multiple sector forecast model prediction improved by several percents at 95% confidence level in comparison with single sector forecast.

Wang, Yao↗