Unlocking the Full Potential of Rooftop PV In India Using Consumer Adoption Modeling [Slides]
This slide deck provides an analysis about adoption of Distributed PV in India using NREL's dGen model.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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USAID Colombia Young Leaders Workforce Training Program Action Plans: Forecasting Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption in Barranquilla, Colombia
As part of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)-National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Young Leaders Workforce Training Program in Colombia, the Association of Renewable Energies Colombia (SER) participants leveraged their training and professional experience to develop an action plan for modeling the projected adoption of distributed solar photovoltaics (PV) out to 2050 for the city of Barranquilla, Colombia. This case study provides an overview of the key activities and outcomes of the Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen™) Colombia project.
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Storage Futures Study - Distributed Solar and Storage Outlook: Methodology and Scenarios
This presentation discusses the fourth report in NREL’s Storage Futures Study (SFS) publications. The SFS is a multiyear research project that explores the role and impact of energy storage in the evolution and operation of the U.S. power sector. The SFS is designed to examine the potential impact of energy storage technology advancement on the deployment of utility-scale storage and the adoption of distributed storage, and the implications for future power system infrastructure investment and operations. This report describes the expanded capabilities of the Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model to analyze the economics of distributed (behind-the-meter) PV paired with battery storage systems and presents projections of adoption for the contiguous United States out to 2050 under a range of scenarios. These scenarios use technology cost and performance assumptions consistent with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s 2020 Standard Scenarios paired with updated battery cost projections and existing policies. Additional scenarios evaluate sensitivities to the value of backup power and DER compensation mechanisms, collectively characterizing the future potential for behind-the-meter storage and identifying key drivers of adoption. Adoption projections of DER and battery storage at high spatial and temporal resolution, as presented in this report, can enable informed planning of technical infrastructure that can help planners capture the benefits and mitigate challenges to support the ongoing trend toward distributed electricity generation.
backup power↗
Distributed Solar and Storage Adoption Modeling
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is analyzing the rapidly increasing role of energy storage in the electrical grid through 2050 through its Storage Futures Study. In one phase of the study, NREL used the laboratory's Distributed Generation Market (dGen) model to examine the various future distributed storage capacity adoption scenarios, results, and implications.
agent-based modeling↗
ComStock™ 2024 Release 1 [SWR-19-33 and SWR-20-32]
ComStock™ is an NREL model of the U.S. commercial building stock. The model takes some building characteristics from the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Commercial Prototype Building Models and Commercial Reference Building. However, unlike many other building stock models, ComStock also combines these with a variety of additional public- and private-sector data sets. Collectively, this information provides high-fidelity building stock representation with a realistic diversity of building characteristics. This repository contains the source code used to build and execute ComStock models, including upgrade scenarios. In addition, the sampling of buildings characteristics used for the initial ComStock (V1.0) release is provided. The ComStock model is under active calibration and development, which is publicly visible on this repository. Execution of the ComStock workflow is managed through the buildstockbatch repository, a shared asset of ResStock™ and ComStock™ , specifically developed to scale to execution of tens of millions of simulations through multiple infrastructure providers. The dataset output from the initial ComStock (V1.0) release can be found at the accompanying ComStock data viewer website and additional information about ComStock found on the NREL Buildings Website. For more details about ongoing model development please consult the End Use Load Profiles website. ComStock is a direct result of the NREL residential stock modeling tool ResStock™ (recipient of a R&D100 award) and was inspired by the high-fidelity solar & storage adoption model dGen™. Additionally, this tool would not be possible without the decades of work undertaken by the OpenStudio® and EnergyPlus® visionaries and contributors, significant funding, feedback and support from the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, and the Department of Energy's Building Technology Office ongoing support of and investment in building energy modeling software. is an analytic methodology for modeling the energy usage of the commercial building stock within the United States of America. The commercial building stock is represented through a sampling of complex probabilistic distributions of various features of interest for modeling energy usage within commercial buildings. Each sample from these distributions is converted into a building energy model based on the features of that specific sample. Each building energy model can be simulated as is, but additional changes can be made to the model through addition of energy conservation measures, component faults, or other desired alterations. The results of the simulations are then processed to provide insights for various stakeholders, including but not limited to policy makers, engineers, and marketers.
Horsey, Henry↗
Distributed Solar Adoption in Orlando: A Household-Level Model for Distribution Resource Planning
Potential for rooftop solar in Florida is massive (47% of retail sales, 3rd overall nationally), yet adoption lags (12th nationally). A 2018 Florida Public Service Commission ruling authorizing solar third-party ownership (leasing) has substantially increased attention on distributed solar in the state. The city of Orlando has committed to a 100% clean-energy target by 2050 and deployment of solar and storage are expected to contribute significantly to reaching the goal. Deployment of customer-adopted solar, unlike utility-procured solar, is uncertain, but known to be spatially correlated with demographic factors and existing adoption. We develop a new method to adapt NREL's dGen model in order to represent building-level agents in adoption forecasts for the Orlando Utility Commission (OUC) service territory. Using the agent-based model we develop projections of solar adoption, subject to scenarios varying future solar costs and valuation, and aggregate adoption predictions by OUC distribution feeder. We find substantial spatial heterogeneity in the projected level of adoption by OUC distribution feeder. For instance, 25% of all projected adoption through 2050 would be concentrated on just 5% of feeders and 88% of projected adoption on 50% of feeders. Because of the uncertainty in adoption, bottoms-up solar adoption forecasting methods at the household-level are integral to long-term resource planning by anticipating system needs as customers increasingly adopt distributed solar, storage, electric vehicles, and other distributed energy resources.
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Affordable and Accessible Solar for All: Barriers, Solutions, and On-Site Adoption Potential
Solar energy technologies can be used as part of a suite of tools to reduce the energy burden of low-income customers, but to date, low- and moderate-income (LMI) customers have not adopted solar at the same rate as other income groups. This paper summarizes the barriers of LMI solar adoption related to finance and funding, community engagement, site suitability, policy and regulatory, and resilience and recovery and discusses existing and potential future solutions to address these barriers. In addition, we model future LMI on-site solar adoption, using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) dGen model. We model future scenarios assuming no changes in the current LMI solar policy and program environment, and we add two incentives to low-income households for adopting solar: a $\$$3,000 incentive and a full incentive (i.e., the full cost of a PV system). While we model a financial incentive, this dollar reduction in cost could also come from other efforts, for example, reductions in solar soft costs. We find that by 2050, 48-49% of LMI households adopt solar, resulting in $\$$69- $\$$101 billion in first year utility bill savings to these consumers.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
LA100 Equity Strategies. Chapter 8: Equitable Rooftop Solar Access and Benefits
The LA100 Equity Strategies project integrates community guidance with robust research, modeling, and analysis to identify strategy options that can increase equitable outcomes in Los Angeles' clean energy transition. This chapter focuses on analysis of customer-sited rooftop solar and storage as a means to reduce electricity bills for low- and moderate-income (LMI) households, multifamily building residents, and renters, who traditionally lack access to bill savings from rooftop solar. Specifically, NREL modeled customer-sited solar and storage adoption using the Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen™)1 model through 2035 and developed scenarios to identify programs or policies that could support equitable access to bill savings from rooftop solar or solar-plus-storage. Scenarios tested include a direct-install program for LMI customers, net metering for LMI customers, and equitable distribution of benefits from installing solar between owners and renters of renter-occupied buildings. Research was guided by input from the community engagement process, and equity strategies are presented in alignment with that guidance.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DART Core/Combustor-Noise Initial Test Results
Contributions from the combustor to the overall propulsion noise of civilian transport aircraft are starting to become important due to turbofan design trends and advances in mitigation of other noise sources. Future propulsion systems for ultra-efficient commercial air vehicles are projected to be of increasingly higher bypass ratio from larger fans combined with much smaller cores, with ultra-clean burning fuel-flexible combustors. Unless effective noise-reduction strategies are developed, combustor noise is likely to become a prominent contributor to overall airport community noise in the future. The new NASA DGEN Aero0propulsion Research Turbofan (DART) is a cost-efficient testbed for the study of core-noise physics and mitigation. This presentation gives a brief description of the recently completed DART core combustor-noise baseline test in the NASA GRC Aero-Acoustic Propulsion Laboratory (AAPL). Acoustic data was simultaneously acquired using the AAPL overhead microphone array in the engine aft quadrant far field, a single midfield microphone, and two semi-infinite-tube unsteady pressure sensors at the core-nozzle exit. An initial assessment shows that the data is of high quality and compares well with results from a quick 2014 feasibility test. Combustor noise components of measured total-noise signatures were educed using a two-signal source-separation method an dare found to occur in the expected frequency range. The research described herein is aligned with the NASA Ultra-Efficient Commercial Transport strategic thrust and is supported by the NASA Advanced Air Vehicle Program, Advanced Air Transport Technology Project, under the Aircraft Noise Reduction Subproject.
Aeroacoustics↗
Core/Combuster-Noise: Preparations for Future DART Tests
The DGEN AeroPropulsion Research Turbofan (DART) is a small engine representative of commercial transport propulsors. It is used at NASA to study, among other topics, core and combustor noise production mechanisms and propagation. This includes development/validation of robust and accurate instrumentation/techniques for evaluating noise production in the extreme environment of a turbofan core. This presentation highlights upcoming core-noise research activities contributing to or directly utilizing the DART facility during the remaining CY2018 and First Quarter CY 2019 period. The near-term aim is to further investigate features seen in the baseline DART core/combustor-noise test performed in the NASA GRC Aero-Acoustic Propulsion Laboratory (AAPL) during 2017 as well as to provide an improved documentation of the core noise emanating from the turbofan engine. The research is aligned with the NASA Ultra-Efficient Commercial Transport strategic thrust and is supported by the NASA Advanced Air Vehicle Program, Advanced Air Transport Technology Project, under the Aircraft Noise Reduction Subproject.
Turbofan Combustor Noise↗
NASA Systems Engineering and Safety Culture: Aerospace Project Design and Implementation Challenges
Using Systems Engineering principles and the NASA Glenn Safety procedures and protocols, a rigorous method was developed to ensure safe testing and operation of a small, commercial off the shelf turbofan engine at the Aero-Acoustic Propulsion Laboratory (AAPL). The DGEN380 is a small, ~500-lbf thrust class, high-bypass, geared- turbofan engine with a separate flow nozzle. It is a modular, compact, lightweight turbofan with Full-Authority Digital Engine Control. It’s general characteristics make it an ideal candidate for utilization as a testbed for engine aero-acoustic technology maturation in a relevant performance environment. The DGEN380 is the core component of the DGEN Aero-propulsion Research Turbofan (DART) mobile test rig. The full presentation will describe the risk assessment and mitigation process applied to the DART by the project team. The identification and analysis of failure modes led to the development of risk mitigation plans, which include administrative, engineering, and physical controls for the safe operation of the DART test rig at the AAPL facility.
Systems Engineering, Aeronautics, safety↗
Evaluation of Silicon Carbide Pressure Sensor in Turbofan Engine Core Exhaust Nozzle
We report the results of the evaluation of single crystal 4H-silicon carbide piezoresistive pressure sensors that were directly inserted at the compressor and core exhaust nozzle exits, in shear contact with the engine-internal flow streams of the NASA DGEN Aeropropulsion Research Turbofan, where the operating temperatures at maximum power were ~230 oC, and ~460 oC, respectively. In addition to demonstrating sensor survivability during this maiden test, the frequency responses of the silicon-carbide sensors at the core-nozzle exit were compared against industry-standard silicon-based piezoresistive pressure transducers that externally placed, using an infinite-tube-probe arrangement. The low-voltage output of these early-development SiC sensors limited the frequency range with an acceptable signal-to-noise-ratio for the current application to less than about 2,500 Hz. The low output of the SiC sensors were due to a conservative burst-pressure diaphragm design that can be optimized to increase the frequency range. The results from this initial campaign offered insights to aspects of the sensor that would require further improvement, with the goal of achieving full-bandwidth capture of engine unsteady pressure fluctuations by direct interrogation of the flow field in hostile-environment engine-core components.
Silicon Carbide↗
Evaluation of SiC Pressure Sensors in Turbofan Engine Core Exhaust Nozzle
We report the results of the evaluation of single crystal 4H-silicon carbide piezoresistive pressure sensors that were directly inserted at the compressor and core exhaust nozzle exits, in shear contact with the engine-internal flow streams of the NASA DGEN Aeropropulsion Research Turbofan, where the operating temperatures at maximum power were ~230°C, and ~460°C, respectively. In addition to demonstrating sensor survivability during this maiden test, the frequency responses of the silicon-carbide sensors at the core-nozzle exit were compared against industry-standard silicon-based piezoresistive pressure transducers that externally placed, using an infinite-tube-probe arrangement. The low-voltage output of these early-development SiC sensors limited the frequency range with an acceptable signal-to-noise-ratio for the current application to less than about 2,500 Hz. The low output of the SiC sensors were due to a conservative burst-pressure diaphragm design that can be optimized to increase the frequency range. The results from this initial campaign offered insights to aspects of the sensor that would require further improvement, with the goal of achieving full-bandwidth capture of engine unsteady pressure fluctuations by direct interrogation of the flow field in hostile-environment engine-core components.
Silicon Carbide↗
Energy I-Corps 2023: Distributed Wind Energy Toolkit
This presentation covers the purpose and scope of an Energy I-Corps project focused on refining a suite of analytical tools designed to support distributed wind deployment. These tools - the Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen), Distributed Wind Tools Assessing Performance (TAP), and the Hybrid Optimization and Performance Platform (HOPP) - combine to provide users with the ability to simulate consumer purchasing behavior, accurately assess wind resource to better predict turbine performance, and effectively design and optimize hybrid systems that include distributed wind.
deployment↗
Storage Futures Study: Storage Technology Modeling Input Data Report
The Storage Futures Study (SFS) is a multiyear research project to explore the role and impact of energy storage in the evolving electricity sector of the United States. The SFS is designed to examine the potential impact of energy storage technology advancement on the deployment of utility-scale storage and the adoption of distributed storage, and the implications for future power system infrastructure investment and operations. This specific report synthesizes current and projected cost performance assumptions along with location availability for storage technologies through 2050 that will be used in scenario analysis for the SFS at both the bulk power and distribution system scales. For comparison and context, this report also presents a synthesis of current cost and performance characteristics of energy storage technologies for storage durations ranging from minutes to months and including mechanical, thermal, and electrochemical storage technologies for the electricity sector. This information is intended to cover a broad range of storage technologies that are currently receiving significant attention from the investment community as well as in the media. In the report, we emphasize that energy storage technologies must be described in terms of both their power (kilowatts [kW]) capacity and energy (kilowatt-hours [kWh]) capacity to assess their costs and potential use cases.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Storage Futures Study: Distributed Solar and Storage Outlook: Methodology and Scenarios
This report is one in a series of NREL’s Storage Futures Study (SFS) publications. The SFS is a multiyear research project that explores the role and impact of energy storage in the evolution and operation of the U.S. power sector. The SFS is designed to examine the potential impact of energy storage technology advancement on the deployment of utility-scale storage and the adoption of distributed storage, and the implications for future power system infrastructure investment and operations. The research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of reports, with each report being released on its completion. The table below lists the specific research topics planned for examination under the SFS and the associated publication formats. This report, the fourth in the SFS series, provides a set of scenarios for cost-effectiveness and customer adoption for a range of scenarios that include future technology costs and valuation of backup power. The SFS series provides data and analysis in support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Storage Grand Challenge, a comprehensive program to accelerate the development, commercialization, and utilization of next-generation energy storage technologies and sustain American global leadership in energy storage. The Energy Storage Grand Challenge employs a use case framework to ensure storage technologies can cost-effectively meet specific needs, and it incorporates a broad range of technologies in several categories: electrochemical, electromechanical, thermal, flexible generation, flexible buildings, and power electronics. More information, any supporting data associated with this report, links to other reports in the series, and other information about the broader study are available at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/storage-futures.html.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Solar +: Clean Energy Strategies for the Sunshine State (Final Technical Report (FTR) of the Florida Alliance for Accelerating Solar and Storage Technology Readiness (FAASSTeR))
This reports on a four-year effort to provide foundational research, analysis, strategies and assistance to help Florida, and other states that might learn from this work, to grow solar energy in conjunction with other distributed energy resources by addressing and overcoming existing barriers, and in way that delivers increased value. The start of this effort coincided with an inflection point of sorts into a new dawn for solar energy in Florida, where the Sunshine state’s national ranking in total installed solar, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), has rose from 13th to 4th. Florida has now become the national leader in annual utility-scale solar growth as dozens of large plants have come online. Also, during this time, Florida utilities have expressed a strong and growing interest in understanding the role of energy storage and how to best plan for and deploy this unique resource as part of strategies to grow solar. The utility-scale solar growth experienced has been fueled by the economics of solar cost-parity with natural gas combined cycle plants and Florida Public Service Commission’s (PSC) approval of cost-recovery for the Investor-Owned Utilities (IOU’s), primarily through the Solar Base Rate Adjustment (SoBRA) mechanism. This has led to gigawatts (GW’s) of rate-based solar capacity additions over several years, along with fairly significant amounts of energy storage. Meanwhile, municipal electric utilities, which, collectively, are the third largest source of power in the state, have been increasing solar considerably through power purchase agreements (PPA’s) and are on track to have close to 1 GW of grid-connected solar by 2024. Florida’s municipal utilities and the Florida Municipal Electric Association (FMEA) have been key partners in the Florida Alliance for Accelerating Solar and Storage Technology Readiness (FAASSTeR), formed to carry out this effort. The six largest of these have been Core Team utilities, engaging throughout the project in weekly calls, discussions, and project direction, participating in and hosting workshops and benefiting from technical assistance in several areas.
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Distributed Wind Energy Futures Study
To better understand distributed wind opportunities in the United States, researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory explored cost, performance, and valuation benchmarks necessary for distributed wind to achieve widespread commercial viability in the United States by 2035. Building on DOE's prior benchmark report "Assessing the Future of Distributed Wind: Opportunities for Behind-the-Meter Projects", the new Distributed Wind Futures Study employs higher-resolution data and new modeling techniques to highlight geographic trends in technical and economic potential and to compare the cost and performance of distribution-connected, megawatt-scale wind applications (referred to as "front-of-the-meter" applications) and behind-the-meter systems, thereby informing the case for investment. The report identifies the best locations and sectors for behind-the-meter and front-of-the-meter applications and provides data to inform the trade-offs consumers face when deciding between distributed wind and solar photovoltaic (PV).
17 WIND ENERGY↗