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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1987

Properties of evolved mass-losing stars in the Milky Way and variations in the interstellar dust composition

A large sample of evolved carbon-rich and oxygen-rich objects has been studied using data from the IRAS Point Source Catalog. The number density of infrared-emitting 'carbon' stars shows no variation with Galactocentric radius, while the evolved 'oxygen' star volume density can be well fitted by a given law. A law is given for the number of carbon stars; a total is found in the Galaxy of 48,000 highly evolved oxygen stars. The mass-return rate for all evolved stars is found to be 0.35 solar mass/yr, with a small percentage contribution from carbon stars. The mass-loss rates for both types of stars are dominated by the small number of objects with the smallest rates. A mean lifetime of about 200,000 yr is obtained for both carbon and oxygen stars. Main-sequence stars in the mass range of three to five solar masses are the probable precursors of the carbon stars.

Thronson, Harley A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Thermal and evolved gas analyzer

The Thermal and Evolved Gas Analyzer (TEGA) instrument will perform calorimetry and evolved gas analysis on soil samples collected from the Martian surface. TEGA is one of three instruments, along with a robotic arm, that form the Mars Volatile and Climate Survey (MVACS) payload. The other instruments are a stereo surface imager, built by Peter Smith of the University of Arizona and a meteorological station, built by JPL. The MVACS lander will investigate a Martian landing site at approximately 70 deg south latitude. Launch will take place from Kennedy Space Center in January, 1999. The TEGA project started in February, 1996. In the intervening 24 months, a flight instrument concept has been designed, prototyped, built as an engineering model and flight model, and tested. The instrument performs laboratory-quality differential-scanning calorimetry (DSC) over the temperature range of Mars ambient to 1400K. Low-temperature volatiles (water and carbon dioxide ices) and the carbonates will be analyzed in this temperature range. Carbonates melt and evolve carbon dioxide at temperatures above 600 C. Evolved oxygen (down to a concentration of 1 ppm) is detected, and C02 and water vapor and the isotopic variations of C02 and water vapor are detected and their concentrations measured. The isotopic composition provides important tests of the theory of solar system formation.

Williams, M. S.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Towards Evolving Electronic Circuits for Autonomous Space Applications

The relatively new field of Evolvable Hardware studies how simulated evolution can reconfigure, adapt, and design hardware structures in an automated manner. Space applications, especially those requiring autonomy, are potential beneficiaries of evolvable hardware. For example, robotic drilling from a mobile platform requires high-bandwidth controller circuits that are difficult to design. In this paper, we present automated design techniques based on evolutionary search that could potentially be used in such applications. First, we present a method of automatically generating analog circuit designs using evolutionary search and a circuit construction language. Our system allows circuit size (number of devices), circuit topology, and device values to be evolved. Using a parallel genetic algorithm, we present experimental results for five design tasks. Second, we investigate the use of coevolution in automated circuit design. We examine fitness evaluation by comparing the effectiveness of four fitness schedules. The results indicate that solution quality is highest with static and co-evolving fitness schedules as compared to the other two dynamic schedules. We discuss these results and offer two possible explanations for the observed behavior: retention of useful information, and alignment of problem difficulty with circuit proficiency.

Lohn, Jason D.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Regolith Evolved Gas Analyzer

The Regolith Evolved Gas Analyzer (REGA) is a high-temperature furnace and mass spectrometer instrument for determining the mineralogical composition and reactivity of soil samples. REGA provides key mineralogical and reactivity data that is needed to understand the soil chemistry of an asteroid, which then aids in determining in-situ which materials should be selected for return to earth. REGA is capable of conducting a number of direct soil measurements that are unique to this instrument. These experimental measurements include: (1) Mass spectrum analysis of evolved gases from soil samples as they are heated from ambient temperature to 900 C; and (2) Identification of liberated chemicals, e.g., water, oxygen, sulfur, chlorine, and fluorine. REGA would be placed on the surface of a near earth asteroid. It is an autonomous instrument that is controlled from earth but does the analysis of regolith materials automatically. The REGA instrument consists of four primary components: (1) a flight-proven mass spectrometer, (2) a high-temperature furnace, (3) a soil handling system, and (4) a microcontroller. An external arm containing a scoop or drill gathers regolith samples. A sample is placed in the inlet orifice where the finest-grained particles are sifted into a metering volume and subsequently moved into a crucible. A movable arm then places the crucible in the furnace. The furnace is closed, thereby sealing the inner volume to collect the evolved gases for analysis. Owing to the very low g forces on an asteroid compared to Mars or the moon, the sample must be moved from inlet to crucible by mechanical means rather than by gravity. As the soil sample is heated through a programmed pattern, the gases evolved at each temperature are passed through a transfer tube to the mass spectrometer for analysis and identification. Return data from the instrument will lead to new insights and discoveries including: (1) Identification of the molecular masses of all of the gases liberated from heated soil samples; (2) Identification of the asteroid soil mineralogy to aid in the selection process for returned samples; (3) Existence of oxygen in the asteroid soil and the potential for in-situ resource utilization (ISRU); and (4) Existence of water and other volatiles in the asteroid soil. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Hoffman, John H.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Design Space Issues for Intrinsic Evolvable Hardware

This paper discusses the problem of increased programming time for intrinsic evolvable hardware (EM) as the complexity of the circuit grows. As the circuit becomes more complex, then more components will be required and a longer programming string, L, is required. We develop equations for the size of the population, n, and the number of generations required for the population to converge, based on L. Our analytical results show that even though the design search space grows as 2L (assuming a binary programming string), the number of circuit evaluations, n*ngen, only grows as O(Lg3), or slightly less than O(L). This makes evolvable techniques a good tool for exploring large design spaces. The major hurdle for intrinsic EHW is evaluation time for each possible circuit. The evaluation time involves downloading the bit string to the device, updating the device configuration, measuring the output and then transferring the output data to the control processor. Each of these steps must be done for each member of the population. The processing time of the computer becomes negligible since the selection/crossover/mutation steps are only done once per generation. Evaluation time presently limits intrinsic evolvable hardware techniques to designing only small or medium-sized circuits. To evolve large or complicated circuits, several researchers have proposed using hierarchical design or reuse techniques where submodules are combined together to form complex circuits. However, these practical approaches limit the search space of available designs and preclude utilizing parasitic coupling or other effects within the programmable device. The practical approaches also raise the issue of why intrinsic EHW techniques do not easily apply to large design spaces, since the analytical results show only an O(L) complexity growth.

Hereford, James↗
NASA NTRS2009

Evolvable Neural Software System

The Evolvable Neural Software System (ENSS) is composed of sets of Neural Basis Functions (NBFs), which can be totally autonomously created and removed according to the changing needs and requirements of the software system. The resulting structure is both hierarchical and self-similar in that a given set of NBFs may have a ruler NBF, which in turn communicates with other sets of NBFs. These sets of NBFs may function as nodes to a ruler node, which are also NBF constructs. In this manner, the synthetic neural system can exhibit the complexity, three-dimensional connectivity, and adaptability of biological neural systems. An added advantage of ENSS over a natural neural system is its ability to modify its core genetic code in response to environmental changes as reflected in needs and requirements. The neural system is fully adaptive and evolvable and is trainable before release. It continues to rewire itself while on the job. The NBF is a unique, bilevel intelligence neural system composed of a higher-level heuristic neural system (HNS) and a lower-level, autonomic neural system (ANS). Taken together, the HNS and the ANS give each NBF the complete capabilities of a biological neural system to match sensory inputs to actions. Another feature of the NBF is the Evolvable Neural Interface (ENI), which links the HNS and ANS. The ENI solves the interface problem between these two systems by actively adapting and evolving from a primitive initial state (a Neural Thread) to a complicated, operational ENI and successfully adapting to a training sequence of sensory input. This simulates the adaptation of a biological neural system in a developmental phase. Within the greater multi-NBF and multi-node ENSS, self-similar ENI s provide the basis for inter-NBF and inter-node connectivity.

Curtis, Steven A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Organic Combustion in the Presence of Ca-Carbonate and Mg-Perchlorate: A Possible Source for the Low Temperature CO2 Release Seen in Mars Phoenix Thermal and Evolved Gas Analyzer Data

Two of the most important discoveries of the Phoenix Lander were the detection of approx.0.6% perchlorate [1] and 3-5% carbonate [2] in landing site soils. The Thermal and Evolved Gas Analyzer (TEGA) instrument on the Phoenix lander could heat samples up to approx.1000 C and monitor evolved gases with a mass spectrometer. TEGA detected a low (approx.350 C) and high (approx.750 C) temperature CO2 release. The high temp release was attributed to the thermal decomposition of Ca-carbonate (calcite). The low temperature CO2 release could be due to desorption of CO2, decomposition of a different carbonate mineral, or the combustion of organic material. A new hypothesis has also been proposed that the low temperature CO2 release could be due to the early breakdown of calcite in the presence of the decomposition products of certain perchlorate salts [3]. We have investigated whether or not this new hypothesis is also compatible with organic combustion. Magnesium perchlorate is stable as Mg(ClO4)2-6H2O on the martian surface [4]. During thermal decomposition, this perchlorate salt releases H2O, Cl2, and O2 gases. The Cl2 can react with water to form HCl which then reacts with calcite, releasing CO2 below the standard thermal decomposition temperature of calcite. However, when using concentrations of perchlorate and calcite similar to what was detected by Phoenix, the ratio of high:low temperature CO2 evolved is much larger in the lab, indicating that although this process might contribute to the low temp CO2 release, it cannot account for all of it. While H2O and Cl2 cause calcite decomposition, the O2 evolved during perchlorate decomposition can lead to the combustion of any reduced carbon present in the sample [5]. We investigate the possible contribution of organic molecules to the low temperature CO2 release seen on Mars.

Archer, Douglas↗
NASA NTRS2014

Apollo 16 Evolved Lithology Sodic Ferrogabbro

Evolved lunar igneous lithologies, often referred to as the alkali suite, are a minor but important component of the lunar crust. These evolved samples are incompatible-element rich samples, and are, not surprisingly, most common in the Apollo sites in (or near) the incompatible-element rich region of the Moon known as the Procellarum KREEP Terrane (PKT). The most commonly occurring lithologies are granites (A12, A14, A15, A17), monzogabbro (A14, A15), alkali anorthosites (A12, A14), and KREEP basalts (A15, A17). The Feldspathic Highlands Terrane is not entirely devoid of evolved lithologies, and rare clasts of alkali gabbronorite and sodic ferrogabbro (SFG) have been identified in Apollo 16 station 11 breccias 67915 and 67016. Curiously, nearly all pristine evolved lithologies have been found as small clasts or soil particles, exceptions being KREEP basalts 15382/6 and granitic sample 12013 (which is itself a breccia). Here we reexamine the petrography and geochemistry of two SFG-like particles found in a survey of Apollo 16 2-4 mm particles from the Cayley Plains 62283,7-15 and 62243,10-3 (hereafter 7-15 and 10-3 respectively). We will compare these to previously reported SFG samples, including recent analyses on the type specimen of SFG from lunar breccia 67915.

Zeigler, Ryan↗
NASA NTRS2016

Reactions Involving Calcium and Magnesium Sulfates as Potential Sources of Sulfur Dioxide During MSL SAM Evolved Gas Analyses

The Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) and Chemistry and Mineralogy (CheMin) instruments on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) have analyzed several subsamples of <150 micron fines from ten sites at Gale Crater. Three were in Yellowknife Bay: the Rocknest aeolian bedform (RN) and drilled Sheepbed mudstone from sites John Klein (JK) and Cumberland (CB). One was drilled from the Windjana (WJ) site on a sandstone of the Kimberly formation. Four were drilled from sites Confidence Hills (CH), Mojave (MJ), Telegraph Peak (TP) and Buckskin (BK) of the Murray Formation at the base of Mt. Sharp. Two were drilled from sandstones of the Stimson formation targeting relatively unaltered (Big Sky, BY) and then altered (Greenhorn, GH) material associated with a light colored fracture zone. CheMin analyses provided quantitative sample mineralogy. SAM's evolved gas analysis mass spectrometry (EGA-MS) detected H2O, CO2, O2, H2, SO2, H2S, HCl, NO, and other trace gases. This contribution will focus on evolved SO2. All samples evolved SO2 above 500 C. The shapes of the SO2 evolution traces with temperature vary between samples but most have at least two "peaks' within the wide high temperature evolution, from approx. 500-700 and approx. 700-860 C (Fig. 1). In many cases, the only sulfur minerals detected with CheMin were Ca sulfates (e.g., RN and GH), which should thermally decompose at temperatures above those obtainable by SAM (>860 C). Sulfides or Fe sulfates were detected by CheMin (e.g., CB, MJ, BK) and could contribute to the high temperature SO2 evolution, but in most cases they are not present in enough abundance to account for all of the SO2. This additional SO2 could be largely associated with x-ray amorphous material, which comprises a significant portion of all samples. It can also be attributed to trace S phases present below the CheMin detection limit, or to reactions which lower the temperatures of SO2 evolution from sulfates that are typically expected to thermally decompose at temperatures outside the SAM temperature range (e.g., Ca and Mg sulfates). Here we discuss the results of SAM-like laboratory analyses targeted at understanding this last possibility, focused on understanding if reactions of HCl or an HCl evolving phase (oxychlorine phases, chlorides, etc.) and Ca and Mg sulfates can result in SO2 evolution in the SAM temperature range.

McAdam, A. C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Evolvable Mars Campaign Long Duration Habitation Strategies: Architectural Approaches to Enable Human Exploration Missions

The Evolvable Mars Campaign (EMC) is the current NASA Mars mission planning effort which seeks to establish sustainable, realistic strategies to enable crewed Mars missions in the mid-2030s timeframe. The primary outcome of the Evolvable Mars Campaign is not to produce "The Plan" for sending humans to Mars, but instead its intent is to inform the Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate near-term key decisions and investment priorities to prepare for those types of missions. The FY'15 EMC effort focused upon analysis of integrated mission architectures to identify technically appealing transportation strategies, logistics build-up strategies, and vehicle designs for reaching and exploring Mars moons and Mars surface. As part of the development of this campaign, long duration habitats are required which are capable of supporting crew with limited resupply and crew abort during the Mars transit, Mars moons, and Mars surface segments of EMC missions. In particular, the EMC design team sought to design a single, affordable habitation system whose manufactured units could be outfitted uniquely for each of these missions and reused for multiple crewed missions. This habitat system must provide all of the functionality to safely support 4 crew for long durations while meeting mass and volume constraints for each of the mission segments set by the chosen transportation architecture and propulsion technologies. This paper describes several proposed long-duration habitation strategies to enable the Evolvable Mars Campaign through improvements in mass, cost, and reusability, and presents results of analysis to compare the options and identify promising solutions. The concepts investigated include several monolithic concepts: monolithic clean sheet designs, and concepts which leverage the co-manifested payload capability of NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) to deliver habitable elements within the Universal Payload Adaptor between the SLS upper stage and the Orion/Service module on the top of the vehicle. Multiple modular habitat options for Mars surface and in-space missions are also considered with various functionality and volume splits between modules to find the best balance of reducing the single largest mass which must be delivered to a destination and reducing the number of separate elements which must be launched. Analysis results presented for each of these concepts in this paper include mass/volume/power sizing using parametric sizing tools, identification of unique operational constraints, and limited comments on the additional impacts of reusability/dormancy on system design. Finally, recommendations will be made for promising solutions which will be carried forward for consideration in the Evolvable Mars Campaign work.

Simon, Matthew A.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Evolved Gas Analyses of Sedimentary Rocks from the Glen Torridon Clay-Bearing Unit, Gale Crater, Mars: Results From the Mars Science Laboratory Sample Analysis at Mars Instrument Suite

Evolved gas analysis (EGA) data from the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument suite indicated Fe-rich smectite, carbonate, oxidized organics, Fe/Mg sulfate, and chloride in sedimentary rocks from the Glen Torridon (GT) region of Gale crater that displayed phyllosilicate spectral signatures from orbit. SAM evolved H2O data indicated that the primary phyllosilicate in all GT samples was an Fe-rich dioctahedral smectite (e.g., nontronite) with lesser amounts of a phyllosilicate such as mixed layer talc-serpentine or greenalite-minnesotaite. CO(2) data supported the identification of siderite in several samples, and CO(2) and CO data was also consistent with trace oxidized organic compounds such as oxalate salts. SO(2) data indicated trace and/or amorphous Fe sulfates in all samples and one sample may contain Fe sulfides. SO(2) data points to significant Mg sulfates in two samples, and lesser amounts in several other samples. A lack of evolved O(2) indicated the absence of oxychlorine salts and Mn3+/Mn4+ oxides. The lack of, or very minor, evolved NO revealed absent or very trace nitrate/nitrite salts. HCl data suggested chloride salts in GT samples. Constraints from EGA data on mineralogy and chemistry indicated that the environmental history of GT involved alteration with fluids of variable redox potential, chemistry and pH under a range of fluid-to-rock ratio conditions. Several of the fluid episodes could have provided habitable environmental conditions and carbon would have been available to any past microbes though the lack of significant N could have been a limiting factor for microbial habitability in the GT region.

A. C. McAdam↗
NASA NTRS2002

Evolvable, reconfigurable hardware for future space systems

This paper overviews Evolvable Hardware (EHW) technology, examining its potential for enhancing survivability and flexibility of future space systems. EHW refers to selfconfiguration of electronic hardware by evolutionary/genetic search mechanisms. Evolvable Hardware can maintain existing functionality in the presence of faults and degradations due to aging, temperature and radiation. It can also configure itself for new functionality when required for mission changes or encountered opportunities. The paper illustrates hardware evolution in silicon using a JPL-designed programmable device reconfigurable at transistor level as the platform and a genetic algorithm running on a DSP as the reconfiguration mechanism. Rapid reconfiguration allows convergence to circuit solutions in the order of seconds. The experiments demonstrate functional recovery from faults as well as from degradation at extreme temperatures indicating the possibility of expanding the operational range of extreme electronics through evolved circuit solutions.

Evolvable Hardware EHW↗
NASA NTRS2005

Transistor Level Circuit Experiments using Evolvable Hardware

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) performs research in fault tolerant, long life, and space survivable electronics for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). With that focus, JPL has been involved in Evolvable Hardware (EHW) technology research for the past several years. We have advanced the technology not only by simulation and evolution experiments, but also by designing, fabricating, and evolving a variety of transistor-based analog and digital circuits at the chip level. EHW refers to self-configuration of electronic hardware by evolutionary/genetic search mechanisms, thereby maintaining existing functionality in the presence of degradations due to aging, temperature, and radiation. In addition, EHW has the capability to reconfigure itself for new functionality when required for mission changes or encountered opportunities. Evolution experiments are performed using a genetic algorithm running on a DSP as the reconfiguration mechanism and controlling the evolvable hardware mounted on a self-contained circuit board. Rapid reconfiguration allows convergence to circuit solutions in the order of seconds. The paper illustrates hardware evolution results of electronic circuits and their ability to perform under 230 C temperature as well as radiations of up to 250 kRad.

self configuration↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evolving Systems: Nonlinear Adaptive Key Component Control with Persistent Disturbance Rejection

This paper presents an introduction to Evolving Systems, which are autonomously controlled subsystems that self-assemble into a new Evolved System with a higher purpose. Evolving Systems of aerospace structures often require additional control when assembling to maintain stability during the entire evolution process. This is the concept of Adaptive Key Component Control which operates through one specific component to maintain stability during the evolution. In addition this control must overcome persistent disturbances that occur while the evolution is in progress. We present theoretical results for the successful operation of Nonlinear Adaptive Key Component control in the presence of such disturbances and an illustrative example.

adaptive control↗
NASA NTRS2014

Sulfur-Bearing Phases Detected by Evolved Gas Analysis of the Rocknest Aeolian Deposit, Gale Crater, Mars

The Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument suite detected SO2, H2S, OCS, and CS2 from approx.450 to 800 C during evolved gas analysis (EGA) of materials from the Rocknest aeolian deposit in Gale Crater, Mars. This was the first detection of evolved sulfur species from a Martian surface sample during in situ EGA. SO2(approx. 3-22 micro-mol) is consistent with the thermal decomposition of Fe sulfates or Ca sulfites, or evolution/desorption from sulfur-bearing amorphous phases. Reactions between reduced sulfur phases such as sulfides and evolved O2 or H2O in the SAM oven are another candidate SO2 source. H2S (approx.41-109 nmol) is consistent with interactions of H2O, H2 and/or HCl with reduced sulfur phases and/or SO2 in the SAM oven. OCS (approx.1-5 nmol) and CS2(approx.0.2-1 nmol) are likely derived from reactions between carbon-bearing compounds and reduced sulfur. Sulfates and sulfites indicate some aqueous interactions, although not necessarily at the Rocknest site; Fe sulfates imply interaction with acid solutions whereas Ca sulfites can form from acidic to near-neutral solutions. Sulfides in the Rocknest materials suggest input from materials originally deposited in a reducing environment or from detrital sulfides from an igneous source. The presence of sulfides also suggests that the materials have not been extensively altered by oxidative aqueous weathering. The possibility of both reduced and oxidized sulfur compounds in the deposit indicates a nonequilibrium assemblage. Understanding the sulfur mineralogy in Rocknest materials, which exhibit chemical similarities to basaltic fines analyzed elsewhere on Mars, can provide insight in to the origin and alteration history of Martian surface materials.

evolved gas analysis↗
NASA NTRS2014

Sulfur-bearing Phases Detected by Evolved Gas Analysis of the Rocknest Aeolian Deposit, Gale Crater, Mars

The Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument suite detected SO2, H2S, OCS, and CS2 from ~450 to 800degC during evolved gas analysis (EGA) of materials from the Rocknest aeolian deposit in Gale Crater, Mars. This was the first detection of evolved sulfur species from a Martian surface sample during in situ EGA. SO2 (~3-22 μmol) is consistent with the thermal decomposition of Fe sulfates or Ca sulfites, or evolution/desorption from sulfur-bearing amorphous phases. Reactions between reduced sulfur phases such as sulfides and evolved O2 or H2O in the SAM oven are another candidate SO2 source. H2S (~41-109 nmol) is consistent with interactions of H2O, H2 and/or HCl with reduced sulfur phases and/or SO2 in the SAM oven. OCS (~1-5nmol) and CS2 (~0.2-1 nmol) are likely derived from reactions between carbon-bearing compounds and reduced sulfur. Sulfates and sulfites indicate some aqueous interactions, although not necessarily at the Rocknest site; Fe sulfates imply interaction with acid solutions whereas Ca sulfites can form from acidic to near-neutral solutions. Sulfides in the Rocknest materials suggest input from materials originally deposited in a reducing environment or from detrital sulfides from an igneous source. The presence of sulfides also suggests that the materials have not been extensively altered by oxidative aqueous weathering. The possibility of both reduced and oxidized sulfur compounds in the deposit indicates a nonequilibrium assemblage. Understanding the sulfur mineralogy in Rocknest materials, which exhibit chemical similarities to basaltic fines analyzed elsewhere on Mars, can provide insight in to the origin and alteration history of Martian surface materials.

Gale Crater↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing the DES-SN5YR and Pantheon+ SN cosmology analyses: investigation based on ‘evolving dark energy or supernovae systematics’?

Recent cosmological analyses measuring distances of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) have all given similar hints at time-evolving dark energy. To examine whether underestimated SN Ia systematics might be driving these results, Efstathiou (2025) compared overlapping SN events between Pantheon+ and DES-SN5YR (20 per cent SNe are in common), and reported evidence for an $\sim$0.04 mag offset between the low- and high-redshift distance measurements of this subsample of events. If this offset is arbitrarily subtracted from the entire DES-SN5YR sample, the preference for evolving dark energy is reduced. In this paper, we show that this offset is mostly due to different corrections for Malmquist bias between the two samples; therefore, an object-to-object comparison can be misleading. Malmquist bias corrections differ between the two analyses for several reasons. First, DES-SN5YR used an improved model of SN Ia luminosity scatter compared to Pantheon+ but the associated scatter-model uncertainties are included in the error budget. Secondly, improvements in host mass estimates in DES-SN5YR also affected SN standardized magnitudes and their bias corrections. Thirdly, and most importantly, the selection functions of the two compilations are significantly different, hence the inferred Malmquist bias corrections. Even if the original scatter model and host properties from Pantheon+ are used instead, the evidence for evolving dark energy from CMB, DESI BAO Year 1 and DES-SN5YR is only reduced from 3.9$\sigma$ to 3.3$\sigma$, consistent with the error budget. Finally, in this investigation, we identify an underestimated systematic uncertainty related to host galaxy property uncertainties, which could increase the final DES-SN5YR error budget by 3 per cent. In conclusion, we confirm the validity of the published DES-SN5YR results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Long term predictions of coal fired power plant data using evolved recurrent neural networks

Abstract This work presents an investigation into the ability of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to provide long term predictions of time series data generated by coal fired power plants. While there are numerous studies which have used artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict coal plant parameters, to the authors’ knowledge these have almost entirely been restricted to predicting values at the next time step, and not farther into the future. Using a novel neuro-evolution strategy called Evolutionary eXploration of Augmenting Memory Models (EXAMM), we evolved RNNs with advanced memory cells to predict per-minute plant parameters and per-hour boiler parameters up to 8 hours into the future. These data sets were challenging prediction tasks as they involve spiking behavior in the parameters being predicted. While the evolved RNNs were able to successfully predict the spikes in the hourly data they did not perform very well in accurately predicting their severity. The per-minute data proved even more challenging as medium range predictions miscalculated the beginning and ending of spikes, and longer range predictions reverted to long term trends and ignored the spikes entirely. We hope this initial study will motivate further study into this highly challenging prediction problem. The use of fuel properties data generated by a new Coal Tracker Optimization (CTO) program was also investigated and this work shows that their use improved predictive ability of the evolved RNNs.

Automation & Control Systems↗