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DOE OSTI2021

How New Mexico Leveraged a COVID-19 Case Forecasting Model to Preemptively Address the Healthcare Needs of the State: Quantitative Analysis

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, US hospitals relied on static projections of future trends for long-term planning and were only beginning to consider forecasting methods for short-term planning of staffing and other resources. With the overwhelming burden imposed by COVID-19 on the health care system, an emergent need exists to accurately forecast hospitalization needs within an actionable timeframe. Our goal was to leverage an existing COVID-19 case and death forecasting tool to generate the expected number of concurrent hospitalizations, occupied intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and in-use ventilators 1 day to 4 weeks in the future for New Mexico and each of its five health regions. We developed a probabilistic model that took as input the number of new COVID-19 cases for New Mexico from Los Alamos National Laboratory’s COVID-19 Forecasts Using Fast Evaluations and Estimation tool, and we used the model to estimate the number of new daily hospital admissions 4 weeks into the future based on current statewide hospitalization rates. The model estimated the number of new admissions that would require an ICU bed or use of a ventilator and then projected the individual lengths of hospital stays based on the resource need. By tracking the lengths of stay through time, we captured the projected simultaneous need for inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. We used a postprocessing method to adjust the forecasts based on the differences between prior forecasts and the subsequent observed data. Thus, we ensured that our forecasts could reflect a dynamically changing situation on the ground. Forecasts made between September 1 and December 9, 2020, showed variable accuracy across time, health care resource needs, and forecast horizon. Forecasts made in October, when new COVID-19 cases were steadily increasing, had an average accuracy error of 20.0%, while the error in forecasts made in September, a month with low COVID-19 activity, was 39.7%. Across health care use categories, state-level forecasts were more accurate than those at the regional level. Although the accuracy declined as the forecast was projected further into the future, the stated uncertainty of the prediction improved. Forecasts were within 5% of their stated uncertainty at the 50% and 90% prediction intervals at the 3- to 4-week forecast horizon for state-level inpatient and ICU needs. However, uncertainty intervals were too narrow for forecasts of state-level ventilator need and all regional health care resource needs. Real-time forecasting of the burden imposed by a spreading infectious disease is a crucial component of decision support during a public health emergency. Our proposed methodology demonstrated utility in providing near-term forecasts, particularly at the state level. This tool can aid other stakeholders as they face COVID-19 population impacts now and in the future.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Meteorological drivers of the low-cloud radiative feedback pattern effect and its uncertainty

The radiative feedback pattern effect remains a large source of uncertainty for both projections of future trends and interpretations of past trends in global temperature. The pattern effect is defined as the difference in feedbacks between transient and long-term simulations, and past work shows that is primarily attributed to changes in the marine low-cloud radiative feedback. Here we use low cloud meteorological kernels to map out both the primary cloud controlling factors through which changing surface temperature patterns drive changes in low-cloud feedback, as well as the sources of model spread. We find that the pattern effect is almost entirely driven by changes in estimated inversion strength (EIS) in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in the South East Pacific and Southern Ocean. In both past and future simulations, inter-model spread is primarily caused by model differences in the sensitivity of low clouds to the environmental conditions, rather than differences in the simulated evolution of environmental conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Recent Trends and Innovation in Additive Manufacturing of Soft Functional Materials

The growing demand for wearable devices, soft robotics, and tissue engineering in recent years has led to an increased effort in the field of soft materials. With the advent of personalized devices, the one-shape-fits-all manufacturing methods may soon no longer be the standard for the rapidly increasing market of soft devices. Recent findings have pushed technology and materials in the area of additive manufacturing (AM) as an alternative fabrication method for soft functional devices, taking geometrical designs and functionality to greater heights. For this reason, this review aims to highlights recent development and advances in AM processable soft materials with self-healing, shape memory, electronic, chromic or any combination of these functional properties. Furthermore, the influence of AM on the mechanical and physical properties on the functionality of these materials is expanded upon. Additionally, advances in soft devices in the fields of soft robotics, biomaterials, sensors, energy harvesters, and optoelectronics are discussed. Lastly, current challenges in AM for soft functional materials and future trends are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Unlocking Dysprosium Constraints for China’s 1.5 °C Climate Target

Some key low-carbon technologies, ranging from wind turbines to electric vehicles, are underpinned by the strong rare-earth-based permanent magnets of the Nd, Pr (Dy)–Fe–Nb type (NdFeB). These NdFeB magnets, which are sensitive to demagnetization with temperature elevation (the Curie point), require the addition of variable amounts of dysprosium (Dy), where an elevation of the Curie point is needed to meet operational conditions. Given that China is the world’s largest REE supplier with abundant REE reserves, the impact of an ambitious 1.5 °C climate target on China’s Dy supply chain has sparked widespread concern. Here, we explore future trends and innovation strategies associated with the linkage between Dy and NdFeBs under various climate scenarios in China. We find China alone is expected to exhaust the global present Dy reserve within the next 2–3 decades to facilitate the 1.5 °C climate target. By implementing global available innovation strategies, such as material substitution, reduction, and recycling, it is possible to avoid 48%–68% of China’s cumulative demand for Dy. Nevertheless, ongoing efforts in REE exploration and production are still required to meet China’s growing Dy demand, which will face competition from the United States, European Union, and other countries with ambitious climate targets. Here our analysis urges China and those nations to form wider cooperation in REE supply chains as well as in NdFeB innovation for the realization of a global climate-safe future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Trends in HPV- and non-HPV-associated vulvar cancer incidence, United States, 2001–2017

Vulvar cancer incidence has been rising in recent years, possibly due to increasing exposure to human papillomavirus (HPV). We assessed incidence rates of HPV-associated and non-HPV-associated vulvar cancers diagnosed from 2001 to 2017 in the United States (US). Using population-based cancer registry data covering 99% of the US population, incidence rates were calculated and stratified by age, race/ethnicity, stage, geographic region, and histology. The average annual percent change in incidence per year were calculated using joinpoint regression. From 2001 to 2017, the incidence of HPV-associated vulvar cancers increased by 1.2% per year, most notably among women who were aged 50–59 years (2.6%), 60–69 years (2.4%), and ≥ 70 years (0.9%); of White (1.5%) and Black (1.1%) race; diagnosed at an early (1.3%) and late (1.8%) stage; and living in the Midwest (1.9%), Northeast (1.4%), and South (1.2%). Incidence increased each year for HPV-associated histologic subtypes including keratinizing (4.7%), non-keratinizing (6.0%), and basaloid (3.1%) squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs), while decreases were found in warty (2.7%) and microinvasive (5.5%) SCCs. HPV-associated vulvar cancer incidence increased overall and among women aged over 50 years while remaining stable among women younger than 50 years. Furthermore, the overall incidence for non-HPV-associated cancers was stable. Continued surveillance of HPV-associated cancers will allow us to monitor future trends as HPV vaccination coverage increases in the US.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Large-scale paleo water-table rise in a deep desert aquifer recorded by dissolved noble gases

Illuminating past hydrological and climatological conditions in arid regions may provide insights into future trends in groundwater availability. The main objective of this study is to explore paleorecharge processes in the deep regional Nubian Sandstone Aquifer (NSA), which stretches below the hyperarid deserts of the Sinai Peninsula (Egypt) and the Negev (Israel), using dissolved noble gas data. Extremely high amounts of dissolved excess air (Ne concentrations up to 4 × solubility equilibrium) were observed in the ancient ( 81 Kr-depleted) groundwater that was recharged during past pluvial epochs in the basin. Here, the observed unique excess air signal and the clear spatiotemporal structure of the noble gas compositions in the aquifer are hypothesized to reflect two major characteristics of the groundwater system: (a) large-scale, long-term rises in the water table that facilitate the entrapment and dissolution of air bubbles under increased hydrostatic pressure, and (b) the geological settings in the southern recharge area in Sinai, including an almost horizontal position of the layers and intercalation of low-permeability rock formations within the aquifer, which inefficiently reject air bubbles from groundwater, thereby allowing for substantial entrapment of bubbles that dissolve as the water table rises. Enhanced dissolution of entrapped air was also observed in other paleo-groundwater-containing regional sandstone aquifers across North Africa, which, together with the recent findings from the NSA, suggest that largescale water table fluctuations have likely extensively occurred during past pluvial periods over these (and possibly other) arid regions. A preliminary assessment of noble gas recharge temperatures (NGTs) indicates an apparent decoupling of surface and water table temperatures in the case of deep aquifers with a thick (hundreds of m) unsaturated zone. This observed decoupling calls for a re-evaluation of previously obtained NGT records and a need for future work to consider the modification of NGTs due to soil air fractionation and geothermal heating of the underlying deep unsaturated zones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Lithium Manganese Spinel Cathodes for Lithium-Ion Batteries

Spinel LiMn 2 O 4 , whose electrochemical activity was first reported by Professor John B. Goodenough’s group at Oxford in 1983, is an important cathode material for lithium-ion batteries, which attracts continuous academic and industrial interests. It is cheap and environmentally friendly, and has excellent rate performance with 3-dimensional (3D) Li + diffusion channels. However, it suffers from severe degradations, especially under extreme voltages and during high-temperature operations. In this review, the current understanding and future trends of the spinel cathode and its derivatives with cubic lattice symmetry (LiNi 0.5 Mn 1.5 O 4 that shows high-voltage stability, and Li-rich spinels that show reversible hybrid anion- and cation-redox activities) shall be discussed. Special attention is given to the degradation mechanisms, further development of spinel cathodes, and concepts of utilizing the cubic spinel structure to stabilize high-capacity layered cathodes and as robust framework for high-rate electrodes. Lastly, “Good spinel” surface phases like LiNi 0.5 Mn 1.5 O 4 are distinguished from “bad spinel” surface phases like Mn 3 O 4 .

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Challenges and opportunities of machine learning control in building operations

Machine learning control (MLC) is a highly flexible and adaptable method that enables the design, modeling, tuning, and maintenance of building controllers to be more accurate, automated, flexible, and adaptable. The research topic of MLC in building energy systems is developing rapidly, but to our knowledge, no review has been published that specifically and systematically focuses on MLC for building energy systems. Here this paper provides a systematic review of MLC in building energy systems. We review technical papers in two major categories of applications of machine learning in building control: (1) building system and component modeling for control, and (2) control process learning. We identify MLC topics that have been well-studied and those that need further research in the field of building operation control. We also identify the gaps between the present and future application of MLC and predict future trends and opportunities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Warming and Elevated CO2 on Stomatal Conductance and Chlorophyll Fluorescence of C3 and C4 Coastal Wetland Species

Abstract Coastal wetland communities provide valuable ecosystem services such as erosion prevention, soil accretion, and essential habitat for coastal wildlife, but are some of the most vulnerable to the threats of climate change. This work investigates the combined effects of two climate stressors, elevated temperature (ambient, + 1.7 °C, + 3.4 °C, and 5.1 °C) and elevated CO 2 ( e CO 2 ), on leaf physiological traits of dominant salt marsh plant species. The research took place at the Salt Marsh Accretion Response to Temperature eXperiment (SMARTX) at the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, which includes two plant communities: a C 3 sedge community and a C 4 grass community. Here we present data collected over five years on rates of stomatal conductance (g s ), quantum efficiency of PSII photochemistry ( F v / F m ), and rates of electron transport (ETR max ). We found that both warming and e CO 2 caused declines in all traits, but the warming effects were greater for the C 3 sedge. This species showed a strong negative stomatal response to warming in 2017 and 2018 (28% and 17% reduction, respectively in + 5.1 °C). However, in later years the negative response to warming was dampened to < 7%, indicating that S. americanus was able to partially acclimate to the warming over time. In 2022, we found that sedges growing in the combined + 5.1 °C e CO 2 plots exhibited more significant declines in g s , F v /F m , and ETR max than in either treatment individually. These results are important for predicting future trends in growth of wetland species, which serve as a large carbon sink that may help mitigate the effects of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Valuation of Anode Materials for High-Performance Lithium Batteries: From Graphite to Lithium Metal and Beyond

Lithium-ion batteries have revolutionized energy storage, yet advanced technologies such as electric vehicles and eVTOLs demand even higher performance and safety. Anodes, the negative electrodes, are crucial in enhancing batteries’ safety, lifespan, and fast-charging capabilities. This review paper comprehensively evaluates the progression of anode materials from traditional graphite to advanced anodes like lithium metal. Graphite anodes, with a capacity of 372 mAh g −1 , enabled the first commercial lithium-ion batteries, but future applications require higher energy densities and fast-charging capabilities. Emerging anode materials, including alloying, and conversion types, as well as lithium metal, offer significantly higher capacities, with lithium metal offering a theoretical capacity of 3 860 mAh g −1 . However, these advanced anodes face challenges such as volume expansion, high surface reactivity, sluggish Li+ kinetics, and unstable lithium deposition morphologies. Here, this review critically examines the electrochemical performance, interfacial properties, mechanical attributes, and stability issues of various anode materials. It further discusses solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) formation, strategies for enhancing interface stability, and the requirements of anodes for solid-state batteries. Additionally, the review explores potential solutions for limitations with each anode type, highlights innovative anode-free architectures, and evaluates the current and future trends of battery anode industries. Ultimately, this paper aims to guide the development of high-performance anode materials, paving the way for the next generation of efficient, reliable lithium batteries.

Alloying anodes↗

DOE OSTI2020

Chitin- and cellulose-based sustainable barrier materials: a review

Abstract The accumulation of synthetic plastics used in packaging applications in landfills and the environment is a serious problem. This challenge is driving research efforts to develop biodegradable, compostable, or recyclable barrier materials derived from renewable sources. Cellulose, chitin/chitosan, and their combinations are versatile biobased packaging materials because of their diverse biological properties (biocompatibility, biodegradability, antimicrobial properties, antioxidant activity, non-toxicity, and less immunogenic compared to protein), superior physical properties (high surface area, good barrier properties, and mechanical properties), and they can be assembled into different forms and shapes (powders, fibers, films, beads, sponges, gels, and solutions). They can be either assembled into packaging films or used as fillers to improve the properties of other biobased polymers. Methods such as preparation of composites, multilayer coating, and alignment control are used to further improve their barrier, mechanical properties, and ameliorate their moisture sensitivity. With the growing application of cellulose and chitin-based packaging materials, their biodegradability and recyclability are also discussed in this review paper. The future trends of these biobased materials in packaging applications and the possibility of gradually replacing petroleum-based plastics are analyzed in the “Conclusions” section.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Recent and future developments in pultrusion technology with consideration for curved geometries: A review

Herein this paper examined the current state and future developments in pultrusion with particular emphasis on its application in curved part manufacturing. The relationship between factors such as resin chemistry, fiber characteristics, and die geometry that influences the properties of pultruded product were highlighted. Moreover, the specific challenges associated with pultruding curved parts such as the complexities in achieving uniformity and structural integrity in such geometries were discussed. The review emphasized mold design, process improvement, adaptive control systems for precise resin impregnation and material selection to address these challenges. Additionally, the paper suggests the integration of real-time monitoring and data analytics as ways to enhance quality control during curved parts pultrusion. These advancements will help to overcome challenges specific to curved pultrusion and make the process more efficient. Other manufacturing techniques such as filament winding, thermoforming, pulforming were mentioned as alternatives to curved parts pultrusion. The review also explores pultruded variable curvature processes, highlighting some notable patents and article related to this subject matter. Production of pultruded variable curvature parts was seen as a key driver that can shape the future of pultrusion. Finally, the paper anticipates future trends, with sustainability, customization, integration of advanced materials, and development of techniques for pultrusion of composites parts.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing inference workloads for spatiotemporal modeling

Ensuring power grid resiliency, forecasting climate conditions, and optimization of transportation infrastructure are some of the many application areas where data is collected in both space and time. Spatiotemporal modeling is about modeling those patterns for forecasting future trends and carrying out critical decision-making by leveraging machine learning/deep learning. Once trained offline, field deployment of trained models for near real-time inference could be challenging because performance can vary significantly depending on the environment, available compute resources and tolerance to ambiguity in results. Users deploying spatiotemporal models for solving complex problems can benefit from analytical studies considering a plethora of system adaptations to understand the associated performance-quality trade-offs. To facilitate the co-design of next-generation hardware architectures for field deployment of trained models, it is critical to characterize the workloads of these deep learning (DL) applications during inference and assess their computational patterns at different levels of the execution stack. In this paper, we develop several variants of deep learning applications that use spatiotemporal data from dynamical systems. We study the associated computational patterns for inference workloads at different levels, considering relevant models (Long short-term Memory, Convolutional Neural Network and Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolution Network), DL frameworks (Tensorflow and PyTorch), precision (FP16, FP32, AMP, INT16 and INT8), inference runtime (ONNX and AI Template), post-training quantization (TensorRT) and platforms (Nvidia DGX A100 and Sambanova SN10 RDU). Overall, our findings indicate that although there is potential in mixed-precision models and post-training quantization for spatiotemporal modeling, extracting efficiency from contemporary GPU systems might be challenging. Instead, co-designing custom accelerators by leveraging optimized High Level Synthesis frameworks (such as SODA High-Level Synthesizer for customized FPGA/ASIC targets) can make workload-specific adjustments to enhance the efficiency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

A review of risk and uncertainty assessment for geologic carbon storage

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in geological formations play a key role in mitigating anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and achieving the aggressive goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Risk and uncertainty assessment is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of geologic carbon storage (GCS) by evaluating CO 2 migration in subsurface, forecasting potential leakage and induced seismicity risks, and optimizing operational and monitoring plans. In this review, the use and progress of risk assessment for GCS over the last few decades are examined. Here, we use the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP), which is one of the seven regional partnerships supported by the United States Department of Energy (U.S. DOE), as an example of large-scale CCUS projects in North America. Additionally, future trends and requirements for risk assessment in GCS are discussed. The information provided in this review can help readers understand the significance of risk and uncertainty assessment and apply it effectively in large-scale GCS projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Storm surges and extreme sea levels: Review, establishment of model intercomparison and coordination of surge climate projection efforts (SurgeMIP).

Coastal flood damage is primarily the result of extreme sea levels. Climate change is expected to drive an increase in these extremes. While proper estimation of changes in storm surges is essential to estimate changes in extreme sea levels, there remains low confidence in future trends of surge contribution to extreme sea levels. Alerting local populations of imminent extreme sea levels is also critical to protecting coastal populations. Both predicting and projecting extreme sea levels require reliable numerical prediction systems. The SurgeMIP (surge model intercomparison) community has been established to tackle such challenges. Efforts to intercompare storm surge prediction systems and coordinate the community 's prediction and projection efforts are introduced. An overview of past and recent advances in storm surge science such as physical processes to consider and the recent development of global forecasting systems are briefly introduced. Selected historical events and drivers behind fast increasing service and knowledge requirements for emergency response to adaptation considerations are also discussed. The community 's initial plans and recent progress are introduced. These include the establishment of an intercomparison project, the identification of research and development gaps, and the introduction of efforts to coordinate projections that span multiple climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Designing Thermomechanically Stable Nanocrystalline Alloys for Low Friction and Wear: A Perspective

In this Perspective, we discuss recent work and future trends on the usage of thermomechanically stable and selflubricating nanocrystalline (NC) alloys for low friction and wear applications. The theoretical underpinnings and mechanistic framework for attaining and maintaining low friction and wear in metal contacts are presented. Initial work on stress, time, and temperature-dependent changes in friction and wear in NC alloys validates the models, demonstrating lower friction from decreased interfacial strength, contact pressure, sliding speed, and temperature and increased roughness and material hardness. Subsequent work reveals that NC Pt−Au, metal nitrides, complex-concentrated, and high-entropy alloys come with additional stabilization factors such as low-friction carbon tribofilms and oxide/amorphous−crystalline layers but are still susceptible to destabilization factors including irradiation and adverse environmental conditions.

alloys↗

DOE OSTI2020

River Regulation Alleviates the Impacts of Climate Change on US Thermoelectricity Production

Climate change and anthropogenic activities can both influence stream temperature, which is a critical indicator of thermoelectric power generation potential. Previous studies emphasized the vulnerability of power-generation systems to climate warming (ref 1, 2). Despite the fact that two-thirds of the global rivers are regulated by dams (ref 3), the relative impacts of water management and climate change on stream temperature and thermoelectric production have not yet been evaluated. Using an integrated modeling system applied to the conterminous United States, simulations confirm the dominant role of climate change in shaping the future trends of stream temperature. However, water management, reservoir regulation in particular, can mitigate the stream temperature warming and reduce the frequency and magnitude of extreme high stream temperatures through redistribution of the seasonal streamflow. Moreover, water management can alleviate the loss of power plant usable capacity from climate change to the level of reduced warming from emission mitigation. By regulating the flow and temperature regimes, water management is a promising adaptation measure to alleviate climate change induced effects in the water-energy nexus.

Zhang, Xiao↗

DOE OSTI2025

Aerosol Decline Accelerates the Increasing Extreme Precipitation in China

Extreme precipitation is becoming more intense and frequent. The increasing trends in extreme precipitation in China in warm season related to changes in aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs) are investigated using observations, reanalysis data and model simulations. A significant accelerating increase in extreme precipitation occurred around 2010, with the trend in accumulated extreme rainfall amount (R95pTOT) increasing from 2.88 mm per decade during 2000–2010 to 22.88 mm per decade during 2010–2023. The sudden acceleration of the increasing extreme precipitation is largely attributed to the reverse in aerosol trends associated with China’s clean air actions, which affects extreme precipitation through perturbing cloud microphysics and atmospheric dynamics, accounting for half of the change in R95pTOT trends. Future aerosol reduction to achieve carbon neutrality is shown to continue to intensify the extreme precipitation, which overweighs the effect induced by GHGs, highlighting the importance of aerosol changes in modulating future climate and weather extremes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗