Multi-scenario Extreme Weather Simulator Application to Heat waves.
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Visualization of hourly generation, load, unserved load, and locational marginal energy prices in the western United States during a July 22-28 heatwave event in 2018 and 2058. In addition to hourly time series data of each of the parameters, choropleth maps showing the hourly value for each balancing authority are provided as well as a county-level choropleth map of temperature.
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This paper presents the progress in the long—pulse operation of the electron cyclotron (EC) system and the achievements in high—electron temperature plasmas by the combined EC and lower hybrid (LH) waves heating since the EC system was built in 2015. An electron temperature of up to 12 keV with a duration over 100 s was realized by the simultaneous heating of EC and LH waves at the line-averaged density ${\bar n_{\text{e}}}$ ~1.8 × 10 19 m –3 . The plasma heating effect strongly depends on the location of EC power deposition. H-mode plasmas with solely EC wave auxiliary heating have been obtained on EAST for the first time. These H-mode discharges show an enhanced confinement factor H 98(y,2) around 1.0, which is higher than the previous H-mode using LH power alone (Xu et al 2011 Nucl. Fusion 51 072001). The total heating power is very close to the threshold value for L–H transition according to the international tokamak scaling. In addition to the temperature effects inside the separatrix, higher electron temperature produced by EC wave is found to reduce the LH power loss in the scrape-off layer due to collisional absorption, which is beneficial to further increase the LH current drive efficiency. Ray-tracing/Fokker–Planck modeling results indicate that higher electron temperature can shorten the LH wave propagation on EAST in a multiple-pass regime, thus decreasing the collisional dissipation.
Heat waves and cold snaps have become more frequent and more intense because of climate change. A heat wave and a cold snap are a period of excessively hot and cold weather, respectively, that poses severe risks to building occupants’ health, especially for vulnerable people. They increase electrical energy consumption and put high stress on the grid which leads to potential power outages. Therefore, it is critical to assess and actively improve the thermal resilience of buildings to cope with heat waves, cold snaps, and power outages. The thermally anisotropic building envelope (TABE) is a novel active building envelope that can save energy while maintaining thermal comfort in buildings by redirecting heat and coolness from building envelopes to hydronic loops. When connecting to a ground thermal loop (GL), TABE can utilize the relatively stable temperature of the ground to protect the indoor environment during heat waves and cold snaps. This study assesses the thermal resilience of residential buildings that installed TABE and used ground thermal energy to supply the hydronic loops, abbreviated as ground thermal loop or TABE+GL. The simulation and analysis are conducted for the US Department of Energy prototype single-family detached residential building in the hot climate of Miami, Florida and Tucson, Arizona, and the cold climate of Denver, Colorado, and Rochester, Minnesota. Heat waves and cold snaps were obtained from the historical weather data of 1998-2020 for the studied regions. Three thermal resilience metrics, including the standard effective temperature (SET) degree-hours, the Heat Index, and the Hours of Safety (HOS) were used to quantify the effect of TABE+GL. The results showed that buildings installed TABE+GL could significantly reduce the average SET degree-hours above 30°C, increase HOS, and greatly improve thermal resilience.
Decarbonization and resilience to heat waves have recently become high priorities for building and district energy systems. Geothermal coupled district heating and cooling systems that operate a water loop near ground temperature gain increasing adoption to support decarbonization. In these systems, vapor-compression machines, distributed in the energy transfer stations, lift the temperature up or down to the needs of the particular building. In principle, these systems can provide low-power, free cooling from the geothermal bore field during heat waves when electricity is often scarce. However, the performance of such a resilience operation mode and its implication on the energy system configuration and the sizing of the bore field and HVAC equipment is not yet understood. Consequently, we are assessing their resilience, power use and design implications under a scenario of a heat wave on five working days during which chillers are switched off to reduce electrical consumption. Our analysis is based on high-fidelity, coupled dynamic models of district energy, building-side HVAC and actual control logic, with whole building energy simulation used to assess thermal conditions in a 2004 vintage multi-zone office building in Chicago, IL. The results show that relying only on waterside economizer cooling, the indoor thermal conditions can be maintained in a tolerable range for the majority of the building zones with half the electrical energy compared to standard chiller operation. Thermal comfort in the hottest zones can be further improved by oversizing the cooling coil. However, the waterside economizer has significant implications on the system configuration and sizing: The geothermal bore field needs to be sized about 30% larger than the upper limit of the range observed for conventional geothermal systems. Nevertheless, if a central chiller plant is added, the bore field can be downsized to the typical design range. The latter configuration still allows compressor-less cooling during the heat wave with peak power reduced by 60% compared to the standard design and chiller operation.
Temperature and water vapor have been considered as important factors affecting ozone concentrations, however, their synergistic effect on ozone, as well as its response to a warming climate remains unclear. Here, numerical experiments with different combinations of climate and emissions highlighted opposite changes of annual ozone over the contiguous U.S. under scenarios with high vs. low ozone precursor emissions in the future with warming. Comparing the occurrence of heat waves on higher vs. lower ozone days, we found significant suppression of the heat wave exacerbation of ozone by anthropogenic emissions reductions. Variations of ozone with temperature (T) and water vapor (Q) over the western U.S. and southeastern U.S. in the simulations are clearly revealed through the construction of an O 3 -T-Q diagram. Based on the diagram, we further identified a T-dominant regime at higher temperatures where ozone increases with temperature increase, and a Q-dominant regime at lower temperatures where ozone decreases with temperature increase due to the negative effect of water vapor. With larger anthropogenic emission reductions, ozone may increase at a lower rate with temperature in the T-dominant regime, or even decrease with temperature in the Q-dominant regime. Our results show that with large emission reductions, substantial ozone pollution due to warming and increasing heat waves may be counteracted by water vapor, partly turning the ‘climate penalty’ on ozone into ‘climate benefit’. Hence controlling anthropogenic emissions may be an increasingly important strategy in a warmer and wetter climate to improve air quality and public health.
The LA100 Equity Strategies project integrates community guidance with robust research, modeling, and analysis to identify strategy options that can increase equitable outcomes in Los Angeles' clean energy transition. This chapter focuses on housing weatherization and access to cooling as means to achieve more equitable resilience to heat waves during unplanned power outages. Specifically, NREL used weather, housing, and socioeconomic data to characterize LA's residential building stock. We?developed a residential building stock model to simulate the energy use of 50,000 dwellings representing the diversity of housing types, appliances, climate zones, and household incomes across Los Angeles. We then simulated and evaluated the impacts of 10 building envelope and cooling upgrades on indoor temperature - a main cause of heat-induced health risks-over a 4-day power outage during a heat wave. We examined occupant exposure to extreme heat and how heat exposure changes with each upgrade across income, tenure (renter/owner status), building type, and disadvantaged community (DAC) status. We also examined upgrade costs and utility bills. Based on the results of our analysis and community guidance, we identified building envelope upgrades and cooling strategies that could save lives and maintain safe home temperatures for LA's low-income households in the event of a planned or unplanned power outage during a summer heat wave. Research was guided by input from the community engagement process, and associated equity strategies are presented in alignment with that guidance.
The Parker Solar Probe mission has observed near-continuous power in parallel ion cyclotron waves (PICWs) in the young, fast solar wind. These waves are unlikely to be directly produced by the turbulent cascade and are likely born of a local instability; yet, they are observed to both cool – and heat – the plasma. We propose that these observations can be self-consistently explained as the natural consequence of PICWs propagating in the inhomogeneous solar wind after they have been driven unstable. In this work, we argue that strong proton heating by a turbulent cascade of oblique ICWs will result in PICWs being driven unstable in a process known as quasi-linear focusing. Because the power in the turbulent cascade is concentrated at scales above the turbulent transition region, PICWs will be driven unstable within a range of wavenumbers parallel to the background magnetic field, 𝑘 ∥ , that is bounded from above by 𝑘$^{∗}_{∥P}$, corresponding to the start of the transition region. As unstable PICWs propagate away from the Sun to regions of lower proton density, their 𝑘 ∥ , multiplied by the proton inertial length 𝑑 p , increases. Eventually, 𝑘$^{∗}_{∥P}$ of the PICWs becomes larger than 𝑘$^{∗}_{∥P}$𝑑 p and the waves damp, heating the solar wind. We call this effect ‘cyclotron breaking’, in analogy with ocean waves breaking on the shore. We then discuss the testable predictions of the theory, including a distinct heating signature in which PICWs cool fast protons and heat slow protons at any given heliocentric distance 𝑟. Finally, we conjecture that cyclotron breaking can lead to net heating by PICWs if the power emitted as PICWs decreases sufficiently rapidly with 𝑟 that local emission of PICWs is overwhelmed by the local damping of PICWs generated closer to the Sun.
In this work, we evaluate two mitigation strategies for urban heat island (UHI) in the Kansas City Metropolitan Area (KCMA). Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, we assess the potential benefits of reflective “cool” roofs and urban irrigation on air temperature in typical summer conditions between 2011 and 2015, and during six of the strongest historical heat waves from 2005 to 2016. Under the typical summer conditions, we simulate 2-m air temperature for 10 summer weeks, finding average daytime (07:00–19:00 local time) temperature reductions of 0.08 and 0.28 °C for cool roofs and urban irrigation, respectively. During the six heat-wave episodes, we find daytime temperature reductions of 0.02 and 0.26 °C for the two scenarios, similar to those under typical summer conditions. Our results suggest that urban irrigation can be more efficient than cool roofs in mitigating UHI in metropolitan regions where the majority of the land cover is comprised of areas with low urban (i.e., non-vegetated) fractions. Finally, we find the alteration of surface conditions due to enhanced roof albedos influences precipitation within the WRF simulation, in particular during the heat waves. Further research would be necessary to determine the robustness of this last finding.
Abstract The formation of Ce 2 O 3 from cerium metal requires complex reducing conditions. Alternatively, we show that different stoichiometries and structures of cerium oxides can be generated in high‐temperature laser experiments by varying the availability of oxygen and the use of either pulsed laser ablation (PLA) or continuous wave (CW) laser heating of cerium metal. X‐ray diffraction and Raman spectroscopy suggest that a low structural order Ce 2 O 3 /CeO 2 mixed structure is formed in a 1% O 2 atmosphere with PLA. For CW heating in a 1% O 2 environment, Raman measurements show the formation of crystalline A‐type Ce 2 O 3 in proximity to the point of laser impingement. These experiments were repeated in 18 O 2 and allowed us to report for the first time the corresponding Raman spectrum of Ce 2 18 O 3 .
Recent progress has seen multiple Ta 2 O 5 polymorphs generated by different synthesis techniques. However, discrepancies arise when these polymorphs are produced in widely varying thermodynamic conditions and characterized using different techniques. This work aimed to characterize and compare Ta 2 O 5 particles formed at high and low temperatures using nanosecond pulsed laser ablation (PLA) and continuous wave (CW) laser heating of a local area of tantalum in either air or an 18 O 2 atmosphere. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and Raman spectroscopy of the micrometer-sized particles generated by PLA were consistent with either a localized amorphous Ta 2 O 5 phase or a similar, but not identical, crystalline β-Ta 2 O 5 phase. The Raman spectrum of the material formed at the point of CW laser impingement was in good agreement with the previously established ceramic “H-Ta 2 O 5 ” phase. TEM and electron diffraction analysis of these particles indicated the phase structure matched an oxygen-vacated superstructure of monoclinic H-Ta 2 O 5 . Further from the point of laser impingement, CW heating produced particles with a Raman spectrum that matched β-Ta 2 O 5 . We confirmed that the high-temperature ceramic phase characterized in previous work by Raman spectroscopy was the same monoclinic phase characterized in different work by TEM and could be produced by direct laser heating of metal in air.
India’s 231 million outdoor workers are exposed to deadly heat during heat waves. We report results from a simulation-based study that focuses on passive design of cooling shelters for the hot and dry climate zone of India. The goal is to design a cooler-than-outdoor shelter for outdoor workers’ intermittent rest and recovery from heat stress during their arduous outdoor work, to avoid heat-related morbidities and mortality. Expected indoor thermal conditions in low-cost cooling shelters deploying a range of passive designs and low-power active measures are investigated, consistent with the current Indian standards and practices, located in the city of Jodhpur in western India. Heat resilience of the shelter was measured with the predicted reduction of hazardous hours inside the shelter based on the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) and extended heat index. These measures include improving the building envelope, installing cool roofs, using internal thermal mass, and natural ventilation. Additionally, a low-power active measure of using ventilation fans and ceiling fans is explored. EnergyPlus-based simulation results show that simple, commonly available measures, particularly natural ventilation and ceiling fans, achieve the most significant reductions in overheating danger hours, by 22% and 21%, respectively, while more complex or costly passive strategies yield only marginal additional benefits. Moreover, combined measure packages are identified that can reduce the indoor WBGT by 8 to 10 °C, eliminating overheating danger hours. These findings highlight the critical importance of scalable, low-cost, and easily deployable cooling solutions for developing resilient cooling shelters for vulnerable outdoor workers during heat waves in India.
Abstract Humid heat waves pose significant risks to human health and the ecosystem. Intuitively, rainfall often alleviates extreme humid heat. However, here we show that light rain often accompanies extreme humid heat, exacerbating its frequency and intensity, especially over arid and semi-arid regions compared to no rain and moderate-to-heavy rain cases. This is because light rain does not dramatically reduce solar radiation but increases near-surface humidity through enhanced surface evaporation. The water replenishment from light rain as well as a shallower planetary boundary layer is crucial for consecutive extremes where there are commonly sporadic drizzle days amidst several rain-free days. These extremes last longer than rain-free extremes. Current global climate models (GCMs) overestimate light rain. After reducing this bias in a GCM, underestimations of humid heat waves in energy-limited regions and overestimations in water-limited regions are largely alleviated. These findings underscore the underappreciated impact of light rain on extreme humid heat.