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DOE OSTI2023

Realizing Wide-Gamut Human-Centric Display Lighting with K 3 AlP 3 O 9 N:Eu 2+

Abstract Computers, televisions, and smartphones are revolutionized by the invention of InGaN blue light-emitting diode (LED) backlighting. Yet, continual exposure to the intense blue LED emission from these modern displays can cause insomnia and mood disorders. Developing “human-centric” backlighting that uses a violet-emitting LED chip and a trichromatic phosphor mixture to generate color images is one approach that addresses this problem. The challenge is finding a blue-emitting phosphor that possesses a sufficiently small Stokes’ shift to efficiently down-convert violet LED light and produce a narrow blue emission. This work reports a new oxynitride phosphor that meets this demand. K 3 AlP 3 O 9 N:Eu 2+ exhibits an unexpectedly narrow (45 nm, 2206 cm -1 ), thermally robust, and efficient blue photoluminescence upon violet excitation. Computational modeling and temperature-dependent optical property measurements reveal that the narrow emission arises from a rare combination of preferential excitation and site-selective quenching. The resulting chromaticity coordinates of K 3 AlP 3 O 9 N:Eu 2+ lie closer to the vertex of the Rec. 2020 than a blue LED chip and provides access to ≈10% more colors than a commercial tablet when combined with commercial red- and green-emitting phosphors. Alongside the wide gamut, tuning the emission from the violet LED and phosphor blend can reduce blue light emissions to produce next-generation, human-centric displays.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

BeyondPlanck I. Global Bayesian analysis of the Planck Low Frequency Instrument data

We describe the BeyondPlanck project in terms of motivation, methodology and main products, and provide a guide to a set of companion papers that describe each result in fuller detail. Building directly on experience from ESA's Planck mission, we implement a complete end-to-end Bayesian analysis framework for the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) observations. The primary product is a joint posterior distribution P(omega|d), where omega represents the set of all free instrumental (gain, correlated noise, bandpass etc.), astrophysical (synchrotron, free-free, thermal dust emission etc.), and cosmological (CMB map, power spectrum etc.) parameters. Some notable advantages of this approach are seamless end-to-end propagation of uncertainties; accurate modeling of both astrophysical and instrumental effects in the most natural basis for each uncertain quantity; optimized computational costs with little or no need for intermediate human interaction between various analysis steps; and a complete overview of the entire analysis process within one single framework. As a practical demonstration of this framework, we focus in particular on low-l CMB polarization reconstruction, paying special attention to the LFI 44 GHz channel. We find evidence of significant residual systematic effects that are still not accounted for in the current processing, but must be addressed in future work. These include a break-down of the 1/f correlated noise model at 30 and 44 GHz, and scan-aligned stripes in the Southern Galactic hemisphere at 44 GHz. On the Northern hemisphere, however, we find that all results are consistent with the LCDM model, and we constrain the reionization optical depth to tau = 0.067 +/- 0.016, with a low-resolution chi-squared probability-to-exceed of 16%. The marginal CMB dipole amplitude is 3359.5 +/- 1.9 uK. (Abridged.)

Andersen, KJ↗

DOE OSTI2024

SEC ‐ SAXS / MC Ensemble Structural Studies of the Microtubule Binding Protein Cdt1 Show Monomeric, Folded‐Over Conformations

ABSTRACT Cdt1 is a mixed folded protein critical for DNA replication licensing and it also has a “moonlighting” role at the kinetochore via direct binding to microtubules and the Ndc80 complex. However, it is unknown how the structure and conformations of Cdt1 could allow it to participate in these multiple, unique sets of protein complexes. While robust methods exist to study entirely folded or unfolded proteins, structure–function studies of combined, mixed folded/disordered proteins remain challenging. In this work, we employ orthogonal biophysical and computational techniques to provide structural characterization of mitosis‐competent human Cdt1. Thermal stability analyses shows that both folded winged helix domains1 are unstable. CD and NMR show that the N‐terminal and linker regions are intrinsically disordered. DLS shows that Cdt1 is monomeric and polydisperse, while SEC‐MALS confirms that it is monomeric at high concentrations, but without any apparent inter‐molecular self‐association. SEC‐SAXS enabled computational modeling of the protein structures. Using the program SASSIE, we performed rigid body Monte Carlo simulations to generate a conformational ensemble of structures. We observe that neither fully extended nor extremely compact Cdt1 conformations are consistent with SAXS. The best‐fit models have the N‐terminal and linker disordered regions extended into the solution and the two folded domains close to each other in apparent “folded over” conformations. We hypothesize the best‐fit Cdt1 conformations could be consistent with a function as a scaffold protein that may be sterically blocked without binding partners. Our study also provides a template for combining experimental and computational techniques to study mixed‐folded proteins.

Cell Biology↗

DOE OSTI2023

BeyondPlanck: I. Global Bayesian analysis of the Planck Low Frequency Instrument data

We describe the BEYONDPLANCK project in terms of our motivation, methodology, and main products, and provide a guide to a set of companion papers that describe each result in more detail. Building directly on experience from ESA’s Planck mission, we implemented a complete end-to-end Bayesian analysis framework for the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) observations. The primary product is a full joint posterior distribution P(ω | d), where ω represents the set of all free instrumental (gain, correlated noise, bandpass, etc.), astrophysical (synchrotron, free-free, thermal dust emission, etc.), and cosmological (cosmic microwave background – CMB – map, power spectrum, etc.) parameters. Some notable advantages of this approach compared to a traditional pipeline procedure are seamless end-to-end propagation of uncertainties; accurate modeling of both astrophysical and instrumental effects in the most natural basis for each uncertain quantity; optimized computational costs with little or no need for intermediate human interaction between various analysis steps; and a complete overview of the entire analysis process within one single framework. As a practical demonstration of this framework, we focus in particular on low-ℓ CMB polarization reconstruction with Planck LFI. In this process, we identify several important new effects that have not been accounted for in previous pipelines, including gain over-smoothing and time-variable and non-1/f correlated noise in the 30 and 44 GHz channels. Modeling and mitigating both previously known and newly discovered systematic effects, we find that all results are consistent with the ΛCDM model, and we constrained the reionization optical depth to τ = 0.066 ± 0.013, with a low-resolution CMB-based χ 2 probability to exceed of 32%. This uncertainty is about 30% larger than the official pipelines, arising from taking a more complete instrumental model into account. The marginal CMB solar dipole amplitude is 3362.7 ± 1.4 μK, where the error bar was derived directly from the posterior distribution without the need of any ad hoc instrumental corrections. We are currently not aware of any significant unmodeled systematic effects remaining in the Planck LFI data, and, for the first time, the 44 GHz channel is fully exploited in the current analysis. We argue that this framework can play a central role in the analysis of many current and future high-sensitivity CMB experiments, including LiteBIRD, and it will serve as the computational foundation of the emerging community-wide COSMOGLOBE effort, which aims to combine state-of-the-art radio, microwave, and submillimeter data sets into one global astrophysical model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Integrated Energy Systems Prototype Human-System Interface for a Steam Extraction Loop System to Support Joint Electricity-Hydrogen Flexible Operations

Due to increasing economic competition from renewables and combined-cycle natural gas plants, nuclear power plants are looking toward flexible operations to enhance their cost competitiveness. The Integrated Energy Systems project under the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program of the U.S. Department of Energy focuses on joint electricity-hydrogen flexible operations. Joint electricity-hydrogen flexible operations entail the nuclear power plant diverting thermal energy via main steam to a hydrogen production plant located nearby. The steam serves to enhance the efficiency of the hydrogen production. Furthermore, high temperature electrolysis requires a large amount of electricity, which the plant can also provide. The plant provides steam and electricity to the hydrogen plant throughout the day, but during peak demand hours the nuclear power plant returns to solely providing electricity to meet the high demand. Through this flexible concept of operations, the plant can optimize the thermal energy it produces without having to maneuver the power of the plant. This report documents the human factors process to design and develop a prototype human-system interface for the steam extraction loop that serves as the conduit between the nuclear power plant and the adjacent hydrogen plant. The design process followed the human factors guidelines set by NUREG-0711, Human Factors Engineering Program Review Model (O’Hara, Higgins, & Fleger, 2012), and expanded upon by the Guideline for Operational Nuclear Usability and Knowledge Elicitation (GONUKE; Boring, Ulrich, Joe, & Lew, 2015; Boring, Lew, & Ulrich, 2016). The design process entailed operator interviews to determine the concept of operations for the steam extraction loop, a review and adaptation of digital interface design concepts developed by the team in prior projects, an iterative design process, and reviews conducted by both operators and human factors experts. Several versions of the prototype human-system interface were developed. Operators were interviewed to determine what design features they found useful and would like to see in the interface. The design underwent a review by human factors experts against NUREG-0700, Human Interface Design Review Guidelines (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 2019), to ensure compliance with the latest human factors standards for digital interfaces in nuclear applications. The design was then prototyped as a functional windows-based application integrated with the Generic Pressurized Water Reactor simulator modified to include the steam extraction loop. The simulation is supported by the Human Systems Simulation Laboratory at Idaho National Laboratory, which supports operator-in-the-loop testing. This is an ongoing project and the next phase of the project entails performing an operator-in-the-loop usability study to evaluate the interface and examine the proposed concept of operations to extraction steam from the nuclear power plant for delivery to the coupled hydrogen production plant.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Novel additive manufacturing for plasma facing materials ‐ creating a research pathway for minority students

This project addresses two critical and intertwined challenges in fusion energy, namely the shortage of a broadly trained scientific workforce and the lack of scalable manufacturing solutions for plasma-facing components (PFCs). Through a collaboration among Florida International University (FIU), Miami Dade College (MDC), and Purdue University, the project established structured, reproducible educational and research pathways that recruit and advance students from institutions historically outside the fusion energy enterprise, building the human capital that this field urgently needs. The project integrates the complementary research strengths of FIU and Purdue to investigate flash sintering as a transformative processing route for tungsten-based PFCs. Unlike conventional sintering approaches, flash sintering offers rapid densification at significantly reduced thermal budgets, making it a compelling candidate for fabricating complex tungsten geometries that must withstand extreme plasma-facing environments. Systematic experimental and modeling efforts will elucidate the fundamental mechanisms governing microstructure evolution, grain boundary chemistry, and thermomechanical response during flash sintering — knowledge that is presently lacking but essential for translating this technology into reliable manufacturing practice. The convergence of workforce development and cutting-edge manufacturing research positions this project to deliver measurable, durable impact: a pipeline of fusion-ready researchers cultivated through expanded institutional partnerships, and a validated materials processing framework that accelerates domestic readiness for next-generation fusion reactor construction.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparing land surface temperature and mean radiant temperature for urban heat mapping in Philadelphia

Many cities are experiencing more frequent extreme heat during hot summers. With the rise of global temperature, the thermal comfort in urban areas become even worse. Quantitative information of the spatial distributions of urban heat has become increasingly important for resilience and adaptation to climate change in cities. This study compares satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST) and urban microclimate modeling-based mean radiant temperature (Tmrt) for mapping the urban heat distributions in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA. Here, the LST was estimated based on Landsat 8 thermal imagery with a spatial resolution of around 100 m, while the Tmrt was simulated based on high resolution LiDAR and national aerial imagery program multispectral aerial imageries with a spatial resolution of 1 m. Result shows that both LST and Tmrt show a similar general pattern of the urban heat across the study area, while the Tmrt presents much more details of the heat variations street by street and neighborhood by neighborhood. The LST tends to have a stronger relationship with the Tmrt on building roofs, which are usually not the place for human activities. This studyprovides evidence for choosing more appropriate metrics in urban heat-related studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

LeWRON: Agentic Analysis of Electroweak Phase Transitions

The electroweak phase transition (EWPT) is a central topic in particle physics and cosmology, connecting collider phenomenology, baryogenesis, and gravitational-wave observatories. Its analysis requires a technically demanding, convention-sensitive, and model-dependent pipeline, from constructing the finite-temperature effective potential to tracking thermal histories, computing bubble nucleation rates, and predicting gravitational-wave spectra. We present LeWRON (Learning ElectroWeak phase tRansitiON), an agentic framework that orchestrates this pipeline starting from an input Lagrangian. LeWRON combines audited toolbox construction with an Explorer module that uses the generated model-specific code for further analysis, including scans and plots. Intermediate analytic outputs are checked by auditor agents and stored as structured artifacts, enabling reproducible human inspection and downstream use through both a command-line interface and a public Python API. The framework supports a reproduction mode, which infers conventions from the literature and reproduces published results, and a discovery mode, which guides users through structured checkpoints for new models. We demonstrate LeWRON across representative beyond-the-Standard-Model scenarios and release the code on GitHub.

Wang, Isaac R. [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000030789218X)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Building envelope anomaly characterization and simulation using drone time-lapse thermography

Defects in building envelopes deteriorate over time without being visible to the human eye, while significantly impacting energy performance due to unaccounted heat transfer. Defects can be characterized in the infrared (IR) spectrum. However, IR readings are typically recorded at singular points in time, when in several cases anomalies can only be revealed at specific times of the day, possibly in different seasons of the year. This paper presents a novel workflow for 3D envelope defect characterization and modeling using aerial time-lapse IR data collection using drones. A comprehensive envelope thermal profile is developed for a case study building employing the photogrammetry software Agisoft Photoscan, which generates temporal IR inspections of building skins using multiple thermography orthomosaics. Point-cloud data is then translated into a CAD model and thermal zones for whole Building Energy Modeling (BEM) using Honeybee as a frontend to EnergyPlus to showcase the potential of inclusion of detailed 4D data. Envelope contributions in this case study’s anomalies showed heat losses of 6447.6 kWh, and Energy Use Intensity (EUI) differences of ~2 kWh/m 2 /year from the baseline. Finally, why there is currently little translation of this work in BEM software is discussed, while identifying limitations and future research in the employment of time-lapse thermography using drones for more accurate building envelope inspection and modeling.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Long-Term Vehicle Speed Prediction via Historical Traffic Data Analysis for Improved Energy Efficiency of Connected Electric Vehicles

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are expected to provide enhanced safety, mobility, and energy efficiency. While abundant evidence has been accumulated showing substantial energy saving potentials of CAVs through eco-driving, traffic condition prediction has remained to be the main challenge in capitalizing the gains. The coupled power and thermal subsystems of CAVs necessitate the use of different speed preview windows for effective and integrated power and thermal management. Real-time vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communications can provide an accurate speed prediction over a short prediction horizon (e.g., 30 s to 60 s), but not for a long range (e.g., over 180 s). Therefore, advanced approaches are required to develop detailed speed prediction for robust optimization-based energy management of CAVs. This paper presents an integrated speed prediction framework based on historical traffic data classification and real-time V2I communications for efficient energy management of electrified CAVs. The proposed framework provides multi-range speed predictions with different fidelity over short and long horizons. The proposed multi-range speed prediction is integrated with an economic model predictive control (MPC) strategy for the battery thermal management (BTM) of connected and automated electric vehicles (EVs). The simulation results over real-world urban driving cycles confirm the enhanced prediction performance of the proposed data classification strategy over a long prediction horizon. Despite the uncertainty in long-range CAVs’ speed predictions, the vehicle-level simulation results show that 14% and 19% energy savings can be accumulated sequentially through eco-driving and BTM optimization (eco-cooling), respectively, when compared with normal driving (i.e., human driver) and conventional BTM strategy.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2021

Olivine Dissolution in Simulated Lung and Gastric Fluid as an Analog to the Behavior of Lunar Particulate Matter Inside the Human Respiratory and Gastrointestinal Systems

With the Artemis III mission scheduled to land humans on the Moon in 2025, work must be done to understand the hazards lunar dust inhalation would pose to humans. In this study, San Carlos olivine was used as an analog of lunar olivine, a common component of lunar dust. Olivine was dissolved in a flow-through apparatus in both simulated lung fluid and 0.1 M HCl (simulated gastric fluid) over a period of approximately 2 weeks at physiological temperature, 37°C. Effluent samples were collected periodically and analyzed for pH, iron, silicon, and magnesium ion concentrations. The dissolution rate data derived from our measurements allow us to estimate that an inhaled 1.0 μm diameter olivine particle would take approximately 24 years to dissolve in the human lungs and approximately 3 weeks to dissolve in gastric fluid. Results revealed that inhaled olivine particles may generate the toxic chemical, hydroxyl radical, for up to 5–6 days in lung fluid. Olivine dissolved in 0.1 M HCl for 2 weeks transformed to an amorphous silica-rich solid plus the ferric iron oxy-hydroxide ferrihydrite. Olivine dissolved in simulated lung fluid shows no detectable change in composition or crystallinity. Equilibrium thermodynamic models indicate that olivine in the human lungs can precipitate secondary minerals with fibrous crystal structures that have the potential to induce detrimental health effects similar to asbestos exposure. Our work indicates that inhaled lunar dust containing olivine can settle in the human lungs for years and could induce long-term potential health effects like that of silicosis.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2020

Structural and Optical Response of Polymer-Stabilized Blue Phase Liquid Crystal Films to Volatile Organic Compounds

Engineering useful mechanical properties into stimuli-responsive soft materials without compromising their responsiveness is, in many cases, an unresolved challenge. For example, polymer networks formed within blue-phase liquid crystals (BPs) have been shown to form mechanically robust films, but the impact of polymer networks on the response of these soft materials to chemical stimuli has not been explored. In this work, we report on the response of polymer-stabilized BPs (PSBPs) to volatile organic compounds (VOCs, using toluene as a model compound) and compare the response to BPs without polymer stabilization and to polymerized nematic and cholesteric phases. We find that PSBPs generate an optical response to toluene vapor (change in reflection intensity under crossed polars) that is sixfold greater in sensitivity than the polymerized nematic or cholesteric phases and with a limit of detection (140 ± 10 ppm at 25 °C) that is relevant to the measurement of permissible exposure limits for humans. Additionally, when compared to BPs that have not been polymerized, PSBPs respond to a broader range of toluene vapor concentrations (5000 vs <1000 ppm) over a wider temperature interval (25–45 vs 45–53 °C). We place these experimental observations into the context of a simple thermodynamic model to explore how the PSBP response reflects the effect of toluene on competing contributions of double-twisted LC cylinders, disclinations, and polymer network to the free energy that controls the PSBP lattice spacing. Overall, we conclude that the mechanical and thermal stability of PSBPs, when combined with their optical responsiveness to toluene, make this class of self-supporting LCs a promising one as the basis of passive and compact (e.g., wearable) sensors for VOCs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Species Extrapolation of Propyl Acetate Dose Metrics

We demonstrate the ability of the propyl PBPK model to predict dose metrics of propyl acetate, propanol, and propionic acid from a standard 90-day subchronic inhalation study of propyl acetate in male and female rats. The model was used to predict the same dose metrics in “reference” male and female humans using the same exposure conditions. Finally, we used reverse dosimetry with the model to predict what exposure conditions would lead to the same dose metrics measured in rats. These extrapolations of internal dose metrics based on known species differences in physiology and measured differences in metabolism offer a more scientific species extrapolation than conventional uncertainty approaches, potentially of interest for risk assessment.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2021

New Approach Methodology for Assessing Inhalation Risks of a Contact Respiratory Cytotoxicant: Computational Fluid Dynamics-Based Aerosol Dosimetry Modeling for Cross-Species and In Vitro Comparisons

Regulatory agencies are considering alternative approaches to assessing inhalation toxicity that utilizes in vitro studies with human cells and in silico modeling in lieu of additional animal studies. In support of this goal, computational fluid-particle dynamics models were developed to estimate site-specific deposition of inhaled aerosols containing the fungicide, chlorothalonil, in the rat and human for comparisons to prior rat inhalation studies and new human in vitro studies. Under bioassay conditions, the deposition was predicted to be greatest at the front of the rat nose followed by the anterior transitional epithelium and larynx corresponding to regions most sensitive to local contact irritation and cytotoxicity. For humans, simulations of aerosol deposition covering potential occupational or residential exposures (1–50 µm diameter) were conducted using nasal and oral breathing. Aerosols in the 1–5 µm range readily penetrated the deep region of the human lung following both oral and nasal breathing. Under actual use conditions (aerosol formulations >10 µm), the majority of deposited doses were in the upper conducting airways. Beyond the nose or mouth, the greatest deposition in the pharynx, larynx, trachea, and bronchi was predicted for aerosols in the 10–20 µm size range. Only small amounts of aerosols >20 µm penetrated past the pharyngeal region. Using the ICRP clearance model, local retained tissue dose metrics including maximal concentrations and areas under the curve were calculated for each airway region following repeated occupational exposures. These results are directly comparable with benchmark doses from in vitro toxicity studies in human cells leading to estimated human equivalent concentrations that reduce the reliance on animals for risk assessments.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Thermal and concentration effects on 1 H NMR relaxation of Gd 3+ -aqua using MD simulations and measurements

We report gadolinium-based contrast agents are key in clinical MRI for enhancing the longitudinal NMR relativity (r 1 ) of hydrogen nuclei ( 1 H) in water and improving the contrast among different tissues. The importance of MRI in clinical practice cannot be gainsaid, yet the interpretation of MRI relies on models with severe assumptions, reflecting a poor understanding of the molecular-scale relaxation processes. In a step towards building a clearer understanding of the relaxation processes, here we investigate thermal and concentration effects on r 1 of the Gd 3+ -aqua complex using both semi-classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and measurements. We follow the MD simulation approach recently introduced by [Singer et al., Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys., 2021, 23, 20974], in which no NMR relaxation model or free-parameter is assumed to predict r 1 , thereby bringing new insights into the physics of r 1 on a molecular scale. We expand the autocorrelation function G(t) in terms of molecular modes and determine the thermal activation energies of the two largest modes, both of which are consistent with the range of literature values for rotational diffusion. We also determine the activation energies for translational diffusion and low-field electron-spin relaxation, both of which are consistent with the literature. Furthermore, we validate the MD simulations at human body temperature and concentrations of the paramagnetic ion used in clinical MRI, and we quantify the uncertainties in both simulations and measurements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of N -glycans on the structure of human IgA2

The transition of IgA antibodies into clinical development is crucial because they have the potential to create a new class of therapeutics with superior pathogen neutralization, cancer cell killing, and immunomodulation capacity compared to IgG. However, the biological role of IgA glycans in these processes needs to be better understood. This study provides a detailed biochemical, biophysical, and structural characterization of recombinant monomeric human IgA2, which varies in the amount/locations of attached glycans. Monomeric IgA2 antibodies were produced by removing the N-linked glycans in the CH1 and CH2 domains. The impact of glycans on oligomer formation, thermal stability, and receptor binding was evaluated. In addition, we performed a structural analysis of recombinant IgA2 in solution using Small Angle X-Ray Scattering (SAXS) to examine the effect of glycans on protein structure and flexibility. Our results indicate that the absence of glycans in the Fc tail region leads to higher-order aggregates. SAXS, combined with atomistic modeling, showed that the lack of glycans in the CH2 domain results in increased flexibility between the Fab and Fc domains and a different distribution of open and closed conformations in solution. When binding with the Fcα-receptor, the dissociation constant remains unaltered in the absence of glycans in the CH1 or CH2 domain, compared to the fully glycosylated protein. These results provide insights into N-glycans’ function on IgA2, which could have important implications for developing more effective IgA-based therapeutics in the future.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Geothermal Shot Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Office

In 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) began the Energy Earthshots initiatives to accelerate breakthroughs of reliable clean energy solutions within the next 10 years. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was asked by the DOE Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to provide analysis for developing Energy Earthshot targets for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), human-made underground reservoirs that extract thermal energy from the earth for electricity generation and/or heating applications. The Enhanced Geothermal Shot analysis is based on the technology assumptions in the 2019 GTO report GeoVision: Harnessing the Heat Beneath Our Feet. For Earthshot, we updated some of the technology cost and performance assumptions based on recent technology advances and updated the EGS resource potential to include more detailed analysis. We used the updated EGS supply cost curves to forecast the amount of geothermal electricity generation that could be deployed in the US by 2050 using a capacity expansion model. The results were used to develop a cost target for EGS. On September 8th, 2022, the Enhanced Geothermal Shot was announced. Its target - reduce the cost of EGS by 90%, to $45 per megawatt hour by 2035. This paper summarizes the cost and resource assumptions used in the Enhanced Geothermal Shot. It describes the assumptions used in the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to forecast geothermal deployment and discusses the results.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Geothermal Shot Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Office: Preprint

analysis↗