Results for “large-scale optimization” — Page 3

DOE OSTI2026

Three-Dimensional Grid Visualization for Planning Activities: A Dubai Case Study

National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), in collaboration with the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) and Infra-X, has undertaken the Energy Visualization Analysis Project. The aim of this project is to enhance analytical and 3D visualization capabilities for distribution network planning and renewable energy integration. As modern grid continues to evolve with large-scale solar PV deployment and emerging distributed energy resources (DERs), the ability to effectively analyze, visualize, and communicate complex grid behaviors has become increasingly critical. The project focuses on developing empirical use cases based on real distribution feeder data and engineering workflows, ensuring the outcomes are directly aligned with operational environment. Through time-series power flow simulations and nodal hosting capacity analysis, the study quantifies the impacts of high PV penetration on voltage and thermal limits within representative 11 kV feeders. These analyses identify specific nodes and conditions where DER integration challenges arise. Furthermore, a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) optimization algorithm was applied to determine the optimal size and placement of storage systems that can mitigate network constraints and enhance hosting capacity. The comparative results between base-case and BESS-augmented scenarios clearly demonstrate improvements in network stability and load management efficiency. In parallel, the NLR team developed an immersive 3D visualization framework, enabling interactive exploration of grid simulations using commodity head-mounted display (HMD) systems. This framework transforms conventional 2D simulation data into spatially intuitive visual environments - allowing engineers to analyze feeder conditions, PV hosting potential, and BESS effects in real time. This report represents the first foundational phase in establishing a visualization-driven analytical ecosystem. It provides a methodological foundation for data integration, visualization architecture, and simulation-based decision support, paving the way for large-scale adoption of immersive visualization across DEWA's Smart Grid Initiative, R&D activities, and future network resilience studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advancing Concentrating Solar Thermal Modeling Using System Advisor Model (SAM)

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) technologies play a critical role in enabling dispatchable power and high-temperature industrial heat applications. Accurate and flexible modeling tools are essential for evaluating system performance, guiding technology research and development, and informing investment decisions. The National Laboratory of the Rockies's System Advisor Model (SAM) is a widely used techno-economic simulation platform for CST systems, providing detailed performance and financial modeling capabilities for multiple CST system configurations. SAM integrates physics-based performance models with financial analysis to simulate the behavior of complex energy systems under realistic operating conditions. For CST technologies (including tower, parabolic trough, and linear Fresnel), SAM enables hourly simulations using site-specific weather data that ensure feasible operating conditions and convergence of mass and energy between core system components (i.e., solar field, receiver, thermal energy storage, and power cycle). These capabilities allow researchers and developers to evaluate annual energy production, capacity factors, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), and system dispatch strategies. A key advantage of SAM lies in its flexibility for parametric analysis and large-scale computational studies. Users can vary system design parameters such as heliostat field layout, receiver dimensions, thermal energy storage capacity, power block sizing, and installation cost assumptions to investigate their impact on system performance and financial metrics. When combined with automated scripting through LK, SDKTool, or Python interfaces, SAM enables high-throughput simulation workflows that support sensitivity analysis, technology benchmarking, and optimization studies. These approaches are particularly valuable for next-generation CST concepts, where design spaces are large and system interactions are complex. Another important capability of SAM is its support for dispatch optimization and thermal energy storage modeling, which are central to the value proposition of CST technologies. The ability to simulate integrated storage and flexible power generation allows researchers to explore strategies that maximize grid value, improve capacity utilization, and enhance integration with variable resources such as photovoltaic and wind generation. This poster will present an overview of SAM's thermal system modeling capabilities including concentrating solar. Additionally, we will highlight new feature developments including: 1) implementing Google's OR-Tools optimization platform for faster and more robust dispatch optimization, 2) developing a new power load following controller for modeling behind-the-meter applications, 3) enabling direct modeling of CSP-PV hybrid systems with the inclusion of battery storage, and 4) developing a multi-receiver falling particle Gen3 system model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Comparison of automated chemical-guided segmentation and human annotation of soil organic matter in X-ray microcomputed tomography imaging in contrasted soil types

Soil organic matter (OM) formation and persistence is strongly influenced by the spatial distribution of organic substrates and microscale soil heterogeneity by dictating OM accessibility to microorganisms. However, traditional size and/or density fractionation techniques disrupt aggregate architecture, eliminating spatial information needed to fully understand intra-aggregate OM distribution. To quantify three-dimensional OM spatial distribution and automate segmentation in X-ray microcomputed tomography (µCT) imaging without human annotation bias, we developed an iodine gas vapor (I2) based staining workflow that eliminates labor-intensive manual annotation while maintaining segmentation accuracy, using aggregates from four taxonomically diverse soils (Xerofluvent, Haploxeroll Sphagnofibrist, Palehumult) with an 8-fold range of soil organic carbon. Human annotation of 10 µCT slices by the experienced and inexperienced annotators resulted in variations up to 3% in the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC), reflecting a degree of inherent subjectivity of manual labeling. Such inconsistencies are expected to compound as the number of manually annotated slices increases. Dual-energy µCT imaging at 33.1 keV (below the iodine (I) K-edge) and 33.2 keV (above the I K-edge) was used to resolve aggregate microstructure following I2 staining. The automated image subtraction pipeline identified OM regions by the I Kedge induced brightness increases, achieving DSC values of 0.58–0.83 relative to an experienced annotator. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the reconstruction alpha value—optimized via the open-source tool TomocuPy—and the 3D registration slice count were the primary determinants of accuracy, providing a novel benchmark for dual-energy soil imaging. The pipeline without GPU acceleration achieved 9.6 to 43.2 times faster than manual annotation. Using GPU-accelerated image post-processing and affine transformation matrices, the pipeline successfully segmented OM elements for large-scale datasets (3232×3232 pixel, 2048 slices) within ~5200 s from raw file acquisition to segmented output. The high-throughput approach enables the quantification of OM spatial distribution across diverse and heterogeneous soil.

Soil microbial biomass↗

DOE OSTI2026

Constraining primordial non-Gaussianity from DESI DR1 quasars and Planck PR4 CMB lensing

We present the first measurement of local-type primordial non-Gaussianity from the cross-correlation between 1.2 million spectroscopically confirmed quasars from the first data release (DR1) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and the Planck PR4 CMB lensing reconstructions. The analysis is performed in three tomographic redshift bins covering 0.8 < z < 3.5, covering a sky fraction of ∼20%. We adopt a catalog-based pseudo-C ℓ estimator and apply linear imaging weights validated on noiseless mocks. Compared to previous analyses using photometric quasar samples, our results benefit from the high purity of the DESI spectroscopic sample, the reduced noise of PR4 lensing, and the absence of excess large-scale power in the spectroscopic quasar auto-correlation. Fitting simultaneously for the non-Gaussianity parameter f NL and the linear bias amplitude in each redshift bin, we obtain f NL = 2 +28 -34 for a response parameter p = 1.6, and f NL = 6 +20 -24 for p = 1.0. These results improve the constraints on f NL by ∼35% compared to the previous analysis based on the Legacy Imaging Survey DR9. Additionally, we derive an optimal weighting scheme to maximize the constraining power. In this case, and assuming p = 1.6, we obtain f NL = 19 +25 -31 . Our results demonstrate the statistical power of DESI quasars for probing inflationary physics, and highlight the promise of future DESI data releases.

cosmological parameters from CMBR↗

DOE OSTI2026

21 cm Power Spectrum Analysis of North Celestial Pole Observations with the Tianlai Dish Pathfinder Array

The Tianlai Dish Pathfinder Array (TDPA) is a radio interferometer designed to test techniques for 21 cm intensity mapping in the post-reionization Universe as a means of measuring large-scale cosmic structure. Using nine nights of observations targeting the North Celestial Pole field, totaling approximately 107 hr of integration time, we analyze data in the frequency range 700–800 MHz (corresponding to redshift z ∼ 0.9). We do the data format conversion, radio frequency interference flagging, calibration, imaging and point source subtraction, and foreground removal via Singular Value Decomposition. The spherically averaged power spectrum Δ 2 (k) is obtained. Furthermore, this work successfully establishes and validates a comprehensive data analysis framework for the TDPA. We identify key improvements including sky model refinement, increased integration time, and pipeline optimization that will enable future detection of the 21 cm signal through auto-correlation and cross-correlation with optical galaxy surveys.

cosmology: large-scale structure of universe↗

DOE OSTI2026

Pathways to cost competitive and viable lithium production from Salton Sea geothermal brines

Lithium supply chains remain heavily concentrated in hard rock and brine resources, creating significant supply risks. Geothermal brines represent an underutilized alternative, yet commercial progress is hindered by the absence of facility-scale cost assessments. Here, we present a techno-economic analysis of large-scale lithium extraction from Salton Sea geothermal brines, drawing on primary company disclosures, process patents, and brine resource modeling. Caused by varying lithium and impurity concentrations, brine dilution over time, and process configurations (e.g., production via carbonation and conversion vs. electrolysis), we find that large-scale production costs may reach ~10,000 United States dollars per ton, but increase up to 22,000 United States dollars per ton with higher certainty of brine modeling, raising concerns about economic competitiveness to conventional low-cost sources. Finally, a project feasibility-focused scenario analyses shows that leveraging brine pre-treatment by-product sales could lower long-term lithium break-even prices by ~5,000 United States dollars per ton, whereas capital cost optimization of 20% could further reduce lithium break-even prices by 10%.

Wesselkaemper, Jannis↗

DOE OSTI2026

Identifying Barriers to Solar and Storage Hybrids: Modeled vs. empirical wholesale market value and net-value for co-located solar + storage projects [Slides]

Large-scale (1MW+) co-located solar and battery storage projects are expanding rapidly in the United States, but their realized contribution to the bulk power system remains poorly understood because public project-level operating data are limited. The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory estimates the wholesale market value of 280 operational photovoltaic-plus-storage (PV+S) projects across the seven ISOs/RTOs and 19 additional balancing authorities, representing roughly 95% of the U.S. PV+S fleet in 2024. We model optimized hourly dispatch under energy, capacity, and ancillary-service market opportunities and compare the resulting value with standalone PV value, project-specific levelized cost estimates, and empirical operating or revenue data where available.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantum entanglement distribution coexisting with high-rate, broadband classical optical communications over a real-world fiber connecting remote, synchronized nodes

Compatibility with existing classical network infrastructure offers a scalable path towards deploying large-scale quantum networks. Here, we demonstrate O-band polarization-encoded quantum entanglement distribution over an installed 24.4-km fiber while coexisting with a state-of-the-art fully loaded C-band classical communications line system and a picosecond-level precision L-band synchronization signal. The classical system carries two 800-Gbps channels while the remainder of the C-band is filled with amplified spontaneous emission, as is standard for such state-of-the-art communications systems. We examine the spontaneous Raman scattering spectrum generated from this broadband C-band light and offer insights into wavelength allocation for O-band quantum channels. Optimal wavelength selection and narrow filtering enable well-preserved Bell state fidelity when coexisting with 21.4-dBm aggregate launch power across the C-band suitable for 36-Tbps transmission. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first implementation of entanglement-based quantum communications between two remote nodes coexisting with independent classical communications traffic. We demonstrate coexistence of quantum entanglement with ultra-high power levels and record classical bandwidth, offering promise for real-world entanglement-based networking integrated within high-capacity communications infrastructure.

Talcott, Gina M. [Northwestern U.] (ORCID:00000002↗

DOE OSTI2026

MAS-CCD: New technique for measuring low-level charge content based on the multiple amplifier architecture

Low-noise detectors are a key technology for the next generation of astronomical instruments aimed at spectroscopy of faint objects and the search for exoplanets. In this context, the multiple-amplifier sensing charge-coupled device (MAS-CCD) emerges as a promising technology for future scientific instruments. A critical parameter affecting the performance of these devices is spurious charge, produced by the clocking of the gates. Its measurement is typically challenging with existing methods. In practice, the optimization of this parameter often relies on empirical procedures that require significant time and careful consideration of the trade-off with full-well capacity. In this work, we present a new technique to estimate spurious charge based on covariance analysis of the output amplifiers of the MAS-CCD, which measures the same charge packet in different amplifiers at different times. The method enables fast and precise measurements of spurious charge under operating conditions where conventional approaches are difficult to apply. We develop the theoretical framework of the method and validate the model through simulations. The results demonstrate the feasibility of this approach and suggest that it could serve as a basis for reliable large-scale characterization of sensor performance.

Gamero, Miqueas E. [Buenos Aires, CONICET; Fermila↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Real-Time Multiregional Market-to-Market Congestion Management Through Exchange of Relief Cost Curve

This paper introduces a novel method for multiregional market-to-market (M2M) coordinated congestion management. It identifies shortcomings in existing M2M approaches, where Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) exchange shadow prices and relief requests to optimize congestion relief allocations across interconnected regions. Two methods are proposed to enhance flow and price convergence. The first method proposes that both Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) use state-estimator flows directly to determine relief requirements, eliminating delays and potential oscillations caused by using market flows calculated from the prior period under existing M2M approach. The second method involves exchanging transmission relief cost curves, enabling each RTOs to integrate other RTOs' relief costs curve into its real-time security-constrained economic dispatch (SCED). This method can effectively extend the coordination to multiple transmission lines and across more than two RTOs. The alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) is also applied to the M2M coordination problem and compared with the proposed methods. Case studies on small and large-scale systems demonstrate the effectiveness of these approaches.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

JANUS: Resilient and Adaptive Data Transmission for Enabling Timely and Efficient Cross-Facility Scientific Workflows

In modern science, the growing complexity of large-scale scientific projects has led to an increasing reliance on cross-facility scientific workflows, where resources and expertise from multiple institutions and geographic locations are leveraged to accelerate scientific discovery. These workflows often require transmitting huge amounts of scientific data through wide-area networks. Although high-speed networks like ESnet and transfer services such as Globus have improved data mobility, several challenges remain. The sheer volume of data can overwhelm network bandwidth, widely used transport protocols such as TCP suffer from inefficiencies due to retransmissions triggered by packet loss, and existing fault-tolerance mechanisms like erasure coding introduce substantial overhead. In this paper, we propose Janus, a resilient and adaptable data transmission approach designed for cross-facility scientific workflows. Unlike traditional TCP-based methods, Janus leverages UDP, integrates erasure coding for fault tolerance, and combines it with error-bounded lossy compression to reduce overhead. This novel design allows users to balance data transmission time and accuracy, optimizing transfer performance based on specific scientific requirements. Additionally, Janus dynamically adjusts erasure coding parameters in response to real-time network conditions, ensuring efficient data transfers even in fluctuating environments. We develop optimization models for determining ideal configurations and implement adaptive data transfer protocols to enhance reliability. Through extensive simulations and real-network experiments, we demonstrate that Janus significantly improves transfer efficiency while maintaining data fidelity.

Esaulov, Vladislav [Georgia State University, Atla↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reaction Mechanism of Electrodeposited ε-MnO 2 : A Proton-Centered Pathway in Aqueous Zn-Ion Systems

Aqueous Zn/MnO 2 batteries have garnered significant interests owing to their abundance, high theoretical specific capacity, safety, and low cost. However, large-scale application of these systems is limited by the incomplete understanding of the MnO 2 reaction chemistry. The different crystal lattice structures among MnO 2 polymorphs contribute to the variations in reported reaction mechanisms. Among them, ε-MnO 2 polymorph, the dominant phase in electrolytic manganese dioxide (EMD), is notably observed during the charge cycles of aqueous Zn/MnO 2 batteries. Here, in this work, we investigate the electrochemical behavior of an ε-MnO 2 cathode synthesized via electrodeposition from a ZnSO 4 and MnSO 4 electrolyte, onto a 3-dimensional carbon cloth substrate. Proton intercalation emerges as the dominant charge storage mechanism, critically enabling the reversibility of ε-MnO 2 during cycling, as revealed by operando synchrotron X-ray diffraction and X-ray absorption spectroscopy. Additionally, a proton-coupled dissolution/redeposition pathway operates alongside minor Zn 2+ intercalation, as quantified by Rietveld refinement. Morphological and chemical heterogeneities are studied by transmission X-ray microscopy further validates this reaction mechanism. These mechanistic insights provide the foundation for rationally designing Zn/MnO 2 batteries with optimized proton dynamics and charge transfer, advancing these systems as a viable solution for safe, cost-effective grid-scale energy storage.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cross-sectoral impact of emerging technologies on U.S. manufacturing resilience and competitiveness

Introducing new technologies in one energy-intensive industry can affect how other industries operate and stay resilient, yet these cross-sector interactions are often underappreciated in conventional technology roadmaps. In practice, industrial systems do not evolve in isolation. They are linked through shared upstream and downstream dependencies, such as electricity and fuel supply, critical materials, transportation networks, and enabling infrastructure. As a result, large-scale technology deployment in one sector can reshape resource availability, infrastructure demand, and operational risk in others. These interdependencies mean that technology deployment decisions in one sector can create unintended bottlenecks or cascading benefits in others. Here, this article argues that a cross-sector, system-of-systems perspective is essential for evaluating and scaling emerging technologies in energy-intensive industries. By framing industrial transformation as an interconnected systems challenge rather than a set of isolated sectoral decisions, the study highlights how interdependence shapes technology feasibility, adoption pathways, and resilience outcomes. The article illustrates how cross-sector linkages can amplify both risks and benefits, and it emphasizes the importance of integrated planning approaches that account for shared dependencies, cascading impacts, and co-optimization opportunities. Adopting this broader perspective can support more robust technology roadmaps, improve strategic coordination across industries, and strengthen the long-term resilience of the industrial sector as a whole.

Nain, Preeti [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Blueprint for DOE Quantum Supercomputing: Ensuring U.S. Leadership in the Quantum Decade

Quantum computing stands at the threshold of a transformative decade, where the field will evolve from small-scale demonstrations toward practical scientific computing at scale. This Blueprint identifies fault-tolerant quantum computers (FTQCs) as a viable, scalable, and broadly applicable path to achieving “quantum scientific utility,” defined as solving scientifically valuable problems beyond the reach of conventional, classical computers. This capability is expected to show scientific demonstrations in the late 2020s and to mature in the early-to-mid 2030s. This Blueprint outlines a strategy to prepare the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for FTQCs and their integration into the U.S. national scientific computing infrastructure. Its purpose is to identify the steps, milestones, and research directions necessary for DOE to enable initial deployment of FTQCs in 2028 as a scientific tool for the nation and mature this capability into the 2030s. DOE has a long history of supporting quantum information science and technology, contributing significantly to research advancements, training a quantum-ready workforce, and providing access to early small-scale quantum hardware. Given recent demonstrations of logical operations on error-corrected logical qubits and the advancement of commercial hardware roadmaps, DOE should begin preparations for large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computing deployment for DOE science missions. This Blueprint proposes that DOE focus on (1) deploying first-generation scientifically relevant quantum computers with at least 100 logical qubits and performing at least 10,000 to 100,000 hard logical operations in scientifically relevant calculations; (2) developing essential FTQC programming competencies, system software, and facility readiness; and (3) investing in cutting edge focused R&D that fosters breakthroughs in scientific applications, algorithms, and logical architectures needed to accelerate the advent of scientific utility. This effort will position DOE to transition to larger systems: production-scale quantum computers that comprise 1,000 to 10,000 logical qubits, perform 1 to 10 billion hard logical operations, and execute scientifically useful computations at scale. Achieving these goals will require DOE facilities to evolve with urgency to support scientific campaigns that integrate quantum and classical computing resources into efficient workflows, novel software and firmware environments for compiling and routing quantum programs on FTQC machines, and suitable infrastructure for quantum hardware. It will also require further development and optimization of scientific applications from the fields of materials science, quantum chemistry, and high-energy and nuclear physics. The Blueprint calls for transformative R&D and collective action to accelerate the advent of scientific quantum utility and bring it within reach by 2028.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution ESM Projections for Energy Applications Over the CONUS

Assessing energy resources under future scenarios requires high-resolution meteorological information that is physically consistent and suitable for regional-scale analysis. While Earth system model (ESM) projections provide valuable large-scale information, their coarse resolution and systematic biases limit direct applicability for energy system modeling and planning. In this study, we develop a high-resolution dynamical downscaling framework based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to translate global-scale ESM data into energy-relevant regional projections over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The framework identifies an optimized WRF configuration through numerical experiments and evaluates raw and bias-corrected ESM initial and boundary conditions, with soil moisture (SM) and soil temperature (ST) bias correction implemented as an integral part of the bias-corrected ESM forcing to improve land-atmosphere coupling prior to WRF dynamical downscaling. Using an optimized WRF configuration at 4-km resolution, we show that raw ESM forcing introduces systematic dry and cold soil biases that propagate into pronounced warm biases in near-surface air temperature and positive biases in solar irradiance, particularly during summer. Applying bias-corrected atmospheric forcing together with bias-corrected SM and ST substantially reduces these downstream biases and improves the surface energy balance and near-surface atmospheric fields. These results demonstrate that bias-aware treatment of initial conditions is critical for producing high-resolution downscaled projections suitable for energy system modeling and planning applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

There and Back Again: Reimagining Cryogenic Cooling for Scalable Arrays of Dilution Refrigerators for future Quantum Datacenters

While pulse tube cryocoolers enabled the rapid expansion of dilution refrigerator technology over the past two decades, the transition to large-scale quantum systems is now driving a reassessment of the DR’s higher-temperature-stage cooling strategies and how these systems can be effectively scaled in a modular way. Quasi-wet architectures based on centralized cryoplants and forced-flow helium distribution offer compelling advantages in energy efficiency, operational cost, and scalability. With appropriate redundancy, standardized interfaces, and optimized distribution system designs, these architectures will provide a practical and robust path forward for the next generation of quantum computing infrastructure.

Hansen, B. [Fermilab]↗