SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “progressive failure analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

PacWave South SeaRAY k2 Risk Registers

The SeaRAY is a deployable power system for maritime sensors, monitoring equipment, communications, unmanned underwater vehicles, and other similar payloads. This project is to design, deliver, and test a prototype low-power WEC that lowers the total cost of ownership and provides robust, new capabilities for customers in the maritime environment. Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is conducted to systematically identify all potential failure modes and their effects on the system, and to analyze the criticality of each risk based on the likelihood of the event and the severity of the impact. Actions may then be recommended to mitigate the criticality of a risk, either by reducing the likelihood of the risk or the severity of its impact. Risk assessment is executed iteratively as an integral part of the design process. By incorporating risk assessment early in the development cycle, mitigation of risk can be achieved cost effectively. The actions recommended to mitigate risk may be subsequently executed, and as the design progresses the risk assessment is reviewed and revised. Review of the risk assessment is integrated into structured design reviews, ensuring that critical risks are comprehended and that the Project will not progress to e.g. fabrication while intolerable risks remain. The risk assessment process results in the population and maintenance of Risk Registers (RRs). Each major system (and as needed, subsystem) will have a distinct RR. This allows each system or subsystem to be assessed individually, rendering the RRs to a manageable size for review.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cyber Attack Sequences Generation for Electric Power Grid

Security assessment of cyber-physical energy systems (CPESs) such as the electric power grid is a critical operation to maintain availability, reliability, and quality of service in the presence of persistent threats from malicious cyber actors. Existing security assessment approaches such as penetration testing and red teaming rely on subject matter expert experience and forensic cyber analysis of historical events to perform realistic, threat-informed assessments of CPES defense. CPESs have a large attack surface because of the heterogeneity and complexity of underlying topology, devices, measurements, and vulnerabilities. The aforementioned approaches lead to partial coverage of the attack surface with a large set of unknown but possible exploits. There is a need to automate the CPES attack surface discovery and contextualize it for relevant, highly probable, real-world attack scenarios. We propose a methodology and framework to facilitate the discovery of the CPES attack surface. We present a multilayer attack graph with ranked attack sequences to describe CPES failure scenarios. We present a work-in-progress framework that lists key components to automate the attack modeling and sequence generation. We demonstrate the published National Electric Sector Cybersecurity Organization Resource CPES failure scenario to highlight the trustworthiness of generated attack sequences.

Dutta, Ashutosh↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probing the evolution of fault properties during the seismic cycle with deep learning

We use seismic waves that pass through the hypocentral region of the 2016 M6.5 Norcia earthquake together with Deep Learning (DL) to distinguish between foreshocks, aftershocks and time-to-failure (TTF). Binary and N-class models defined by TTF correctly identify seismograms in test with > 90% accuracy. We use raw seismic records as input to a 7 layer CNN model to perform the classification. Here we show that DL models successfully distinguish seismic waves pre/post mainshock in accord with lab and theoretical expectations of progressive changes in crack density prior to abrupt change at failure and gradual postseismic recovery. Performance is lower for band-pass filtered seismograms (below 10 Hz) suggesting that DL models learn from the evolution of subtle changes in elastic wave attenuation. Tests to verify that our results indeed provide a proxy for fault properties included DL models trained with the wrong mainshock time and those using seismic waves far from the Norcia mainshock; both show degraded performance. Our results demonstrate that DL models have the potential to track the evolution of fault zone properties during the seismic cycle. If this result is generalizable it could improve earthquake early warning and seismic hazard analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Holistic Measurement Driven Resilience: Combining Operational Fault and Failure Measurements and Fault Injection for Quantifying Fault Detection, Propagation and Impact. Final report

For HPC systems to date, application resilience to faults and failures has been accomplished by the brute- force method of checkpoint/restart, which allows an application to make forward progress in the face of system and application faults, errors, and failures independent of root cause or end result. It has remained the primary resilience mechanism because we lack a way to identify faults and anticipate consequences early enough to take meaningful mitigating action. However, checkpoint/restart implementations put a tremendous burden on system resources and on the applications themselves and is becoming less feasible at scale. Because we have not yet operated at scales at which checkpoint/restart fails to provide forward progress, despite increasing costs, vendors have had little motivation to provide the instrumentation necessary for early identification of faults and failures. However, as we move from petascale to exascale, component mean time to failure (MTTF) will render the existing techniques ineffectual and/or too expensive. Furthermore, fault recovery mechanisms such as failover and/or error correction introduce performance inconsistency. Instrumentation allowing early indication of problems and tools to enable use of such information by systems, operating systems, and applications offer an alternative, more scalable and less costly solution. In the HMDR project, we built on our experience and expertise developed and accumulated over years of research on design, monitoring, measurement, and assessment of resilient computing systems. Analysis of field data on the current and past generations of extreme-scale systems revealed several challenges that, if not addressed in increasingly larger and more complex systems, may hinder the effectiveness of future exascale computing systems. Specifically, i) file systems and interconnects in current-generation large-scale systems already operate at the margins of resiliency, including consistent performance, and may not scale to larger deployments; ii) automated, software-based failover mechanisms are frequently inadequate and can introduce wider failures, such that failures during recovery may lead to system/application failures, including system-wide outages; and iii) silent data corruption represents a critical fault mode and will require efficient detection mechanisms if next-generation applications are to take full advantage of exascale hardware. To address the above challenges, we assembled a team of world-renowned experts in resilient extreme- scale computing from the University of Illinois (Electrical and Computer Engineering, Computer Science, and NCSA), SNL, LANL, NERSC, and Cray. Our team includes representatives from centers that house many of the largest HPC resources in the world, both today and over the coming years. The team has a unique track record of research in i) system and application failure characterization based on the analysis of field data, ii) data-driven design of fault/error detection mechanisms, and iii) experimental characterization of system/application resiliency. The team includes system owners/operators who provide continuous data collection and access and ensure installation of appropriate analysis tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Status of Multiple Channel Fuel Performance Capabilities Within the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Safety Analysis Software

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 (SAS) is a fast-running simulation tool used to perform deterministic analysis of anticipated events as well as design basis and beyond design basis accidents for advanced liquid-metal-cooled nuclear reactors. It is a critical element of safety analysis capabilities for the U.S. Department of Energy and is utilized within industry to perform the transient safety analyses required to support the licensing of Liquid Metal-cooled Fast Reactors (LMFRs). Although SAS is exceptionally fast for most transient scenarios, fuel performance calculations, along with the associated pre-transient characterization of the fuel pin, may be required for transient scenarios where fuel pin failure is hypothesized. Both the pre-transient characterization and the transient fuel performance calculation are necessary to properly quantify margins to potential fuel failure and assess the time spent potentially exceeding such margins during events. While safety analysis calculations with fuel performance models provide a more detailed characterization of the reactor during a transient, the pre-transient characterization can be time-consuming and computationally expensive. Often, large numbers of fuel pins have been exposed to similar pre-transient irradiation conditions. Similarly, the same pre-transient fuel characterization may be applicable to numerous transient conditions. This provides an opportunity to optimize the SAS computational framework such that pre-transient fuel characterization can be shared across multiple channels (fuel pins) and across multiple simulations, thus dramatically reducing overall computational costs. This report summarizes progress toward enhancing the SAS computational framework to support shared, multiple channel fuel performance characterizations intended to significantly reduce computational costs. Preliminary testing has shown that the computational time saved by using the pre-transient sharing capability is approximately equal to the time it takes to perform the pre-transient characterization.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of irradiation embrittlement effect on fatigue life of a pressurized-water reactor pressure vessel using the fracture toughness master curve approach

The reactor pressure vessel (RPV) is a critical structural component in pressurized-water reactors, and it is designed to withstand extreme conditions, such as high pressures, elevated temperatures, and prolonged radiation exposure. Ensuring RPV integrity is essential for the safe and reliable long-term operation of nuclear power plants, especially as aging mechanisms such as fatigue and irradiation embrittlement pose increased risks. Fatigue, caused by cyclic thermal and mechanical loading, can lead to crack initiation in localized high-stress regions. Simultaneously, neutron irradiation, particularly in the beltline region, progressively reduces fracture toughness, increasing susceptibility to brittle fracture. These combined effects of fatigue and irradiation embrittlement potentially impact the RPV structural integrity, necessitating fitness-for-service assessments. This study applies the fracture toughness master curve approach to evaluate the impact of irradiation embrittlement on RPV fatigue life. A coupled thermo-mechanical stress analysis identifies critical stress locations under normal service transients, pinpointing regions most vulnerable to fatigue crack initiation and growth. Stress intensity factors for postulated flaws at these locations are calculated, enabling an assessment of fatigue life under irradiated and unirradiated conditions. The results indicate that neutron irradiation embrittlement accelerates the conditions in which a critical crack can form and lead to failure, particularly at lower temperatures. The failure occurs where reduced fracture toughness limits the material’s resistance to crack growth. Axial cracks at nozzle corners are the most life limiting without irradiation, while circumferential cracks demonstrate longer fatigue lives. The findings highlight the importance of incorporating irradiation effects into fatigue life predictions to ensure the long-term structural integrity of RPVs.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Damage progression and failure of SiC/SiC composite tubes under hard-contact radial expansion

The response of silicon carbide (SiC) fiber-reinforced SiC matrix (SiC/SiC) composite cladding to mechanical interaction with fissile fuel is a knowledge gap that must be overcome to design and assess SiC-based cladding systems for advanced nuclear applications. This study developed the relevant mechanical testing capability and identified the failure behavior and the critical microstructural features and processing defects. Sections of SiC composite tube were subjected to a modified expansion-due-to-compression (EDC) test in an X-ray computed tomography microscope: a polyurethane plug pressed surrogate Al 2 O 3 into the inner walls of the SiC/SiC composite tubes to achieve hard contact. A pure EDC test with just a polyurethane plug was also performed as a reference. Through the use of displacement fields, digital volume correlation revealed inhomogeneous deformation fields in the tubes, even for pure EDC, which was related to the inherent defects in the structure. Deep learning–aided segmentation and systematic data analysis revealed that the presence of inhomogeneous deformation applied by the hard contact was exaggerated by the presence of inner surface imperfections left behind from the matrix densification process. In conclusion, the findings provide insights into the applications, highlighting the necessity for improvements in inner surface roughness and the incorporation of localized contacts in pellet–cladding mechanical interaction computational models.

Composites↗

DOE OSTI2025

Field‐Relevant Degradation Mechanisms in Metal Halide Perovskite Modules

Field testing, failure analysis, and understanding of degradation mechanisms are essential to advancing metal halide perovskite (MHP) photovoltaic (PV) technology toward commercialization. Here, we present performance data from up to 1 year of outdoor testing of MHP modules in Golden, Colorado. The module encapsulation architecture and encapsulant materials have a significant impact on module reliability, with modules containing a polyolefin elastomer (POE) in addition to a desiccated polyisobutylene (PIB) edge seal outlasting modules with only a PIB edge seal or PIB blanket. Nondestructive and destructive characterization of the field-tested modules points to module scribes and interfaces as areas of potential mechanical weakness and chemical migration, resulting in shunt pathways and increased series resistance. Finally, indoor accelerated stress testing with light and elevated temperatures is performed, demonstrating failure with similar scribe degradation signatures as compared to the field-tested modules. In conclusion, under both outdoor testing and light and elevated temperature conditions, electrochemical corrosion between the copper electrode and the mobile iodine ions appeared dominant, with a significant progression at the scribes that is speculated to result from an interplay between the initial laser damage and joule heating from enhanced ion diffusion under bias.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Testing in Support of the Development of EPP Plus SMT Design Method at ORNL (FY2021)

Experiments in support of the development of the integrated Elastic–Perfectly Plastic (EPP) plus Simplified Model Test (SMT) design methodology, referred to as the EPP+SMT method, continued in FY21. This report focuses on the methodology for developing the EPP+SMT creep-fatigue (CF) design curves at low strain ranges. The creep damage-based method and dissipated work-based method were used to evaluate the available CF data at the low strain range region. A set of failure criteria were determined, and a simple extrapolation method was developed to predict the CF life cycles at low strain ranges that are not accessible by experiments due to the extraordinarily long failure times at the low strain region (thousands to hundreds of thousands of years) and the inability of the test machine to control these small strain ranges due to the signal to noise issues. An experimental method with the concept of block-strain range CF testing was proposed to generate the information needed to extrapolate the CF design curves to low strain ranges. Based on this new testing approach, a preliminary EPP+SMT CF design curve was developed for Alloy 617 at 950°C with tension hold time of 100 s. The analysis in this report shows the potential of generating a set of EPP+SMT CF design curves with different hold times within a reasonable amount of time and testing effort. Based on such a progress, a hold time extrapolation procedure for low strain ranges will be developed in FY22 and critical testing will be carried out to complete the development of the EPP+SMT CF design curves for Alloy 617.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing building resilience in cold climates: Integrating heat pump technologies with renewable energy

As electrification advances and Cold Climate Heat Pump technology progresses, ensuring grid stability becomes increasingly critical for effective heating in cold climates. However, natural disasters, especially during winter, pose significant threats to grid stability, impacting the reliability of air-source heat pumps. Despite these challenges, the integration of renewable energy sources and storage solutions in heating systems has not been extensively studied within the context of resilience. Here, this paper delves into the literature on renewable-powered heat pumps to assess their potential in enhancing building resilience in U.S. cold climate zones, which are particularly susceptible to extreme weather and grid disruptions. By leveraging renewable sources—solar, geothermal, and water—in conjunction with heat pump technology and supported by thermal or battery storage, this approach aims to provide a dependable solution for maintaining indoor heating during grid failures. Our analysis begins with a review of various renewable energy sources suitable for heat pumps, followed by an exploration of their application in cold climate regions across the U.S., and discussions on potential integration strategies with heat pump systems. This study highlights the advantages and suitability of solar irradiance and geothermal resources, emphasizing the importance of tailored, site-specific assessments to maximize energy efficiency and resilience. Additionally, it outlines the economic and environmental considerations necessary for implementing such systems and identifies potential challenges and areas for future research to facilitate the broader integration of renewable energy in heating solutions for enhanced resilience.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Low Peripheral Blood Counts and Elevated Proinflammatory Cytokines Signal a Poor CD19 Chimeric Antigen Receptor T-cell Response in Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

CD19 chimeric antigen receptor T-cell (CAR-T) therapy has significantly improved outcomes for patients with relapsed/refractory B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (R/R B-ALL). However, approximately 20% of patients fail to achieve a complete remission (CR), and some develop severe, life-threatening toxicities. Understanding the biological mechanisms underlying both dysfunctional responses and severe toxicity is essential for optimizing patient management and improving therapeutic efficacy. This study aimed to (1) characterize cytokine profiles associated with dysfunctional responses and severe toxicity following CAR-T infusion, (2) examine the timing and trajectory of cytokine changes in relation to treatment outcomes, and evaluate potential strategies for mitigating toxicity and treatment failure. We conducted a comprehensive analysis of serum cytokine profiles in 86 adult and pediatric patients undergoing autologous CD19 CAR-T therapy for B-ALL. Patients were categorized into three groups: (1) Dysfunctional response—Patients who failed to achieve a minimal residual disease-negative CR (MRD-CR) by Day 63 or who experienced recurrence of CD19+ disease in the setting ongoing CAR-T cell detection before Day 63. (2) Functional response with severe cytokine release syndrome (CRS) and/or neurotoxicity (NTX)—Patients with best response of MRD-CR by Day 63 who experienced grade 3 or higher CRS or NTX. (3) Functional response without severe CRS or NTX—Patients with best response of MRD-CR by Day 63 who did not experience grade =3 CRS or NTX. Cytokine levels were measured during the first-week postinfusion and correlated with treatment efficacy, toxicity outcomes, complete blood counts, and CAR-T expansion dynamics. This analysis aimed to better understand how cytokine profiles relate to patient outcomes and immune responses in CAR-T therapy. Patients with dysfunctional response exhibited decreased neutrophils, platelets, and levels of granulocytic cytokines (suggestive of low bone marrow reserve) alongside elevated pro-inflammatory cytokines by Day 1. Functional response with severe toxicity patients showed a progressive rise in proinflammatory cytokines, reaching similar levels to dysfunctional response patients by Day 7. We observed that high cytokines at both the Day 1 and Day 7 time points were associated with poor survival. These findings remained significant when adjusting for high disease burden, a known predictor of severe inflammatory toxicity and lack of response. Early post-CAR-T infusion inflammation is associated with both dysfunctional response and severe toxicity—even after adjusting for disease burden. This suggests that inflammation, in addition to disease burden, plays a role in determining patient outcome. Therefore, strategies aimed at reducing the pro-inflammatory state prior to or early after CAR-T cell infusion may improve outcomes for R/R B-ALL patients.

Serum cytokines↗

DOE OSTI2020

30 cm Drop Modeling

This report documents modeling and analysis of the 30 cm cask drop scenario for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) casks. The 30 cm drop is an important hypothetical dynamic loading scenario for SNF because 10 CFR 71.71 defines testing requirements for normal conditions of transport (NCT) of SNF packages, and free drop (of 30 cm for the heaviest packages) tests are required. Other NCT conditions specified in 10 CFR 71.71 include vibration normally incident to transport, and DOE’s multimodal transportation test (MMTT) and related analysis concluded that mechanical shock and vibration incident to transportation is negligible for SNF structural integrity because the loads are so small. The SNF cask 30 cm drop has a lot more potential to cause damage to SNF because the kinetic energy and momentum of the system is stopped abruptly during the cask impact event. Test data and model predictions both agree that the SNF assemblies are subjected to significantly higher loads in a cask drop event than normal transportation shock and vibration, but currently there is no reason to expect gross structural damage of the fuel assembly or widespread SNF cladding failure as a result of a 30 cm cask drop. The ultimate goal of this work is to close the knowledge gap of stress profiles on SNF rods and fuel assembly components during NCT, and this report describes the progress toward reaching that goal as well as a plan for finishing this work over the next year or two. Key remaining tasks include refining the fuel assembly model, calculating a selection of specific fuel assembly cases to populate the damage model, and finally running the damage model to predict the full general response range of 30 cm drop loads on SNF.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

Transformational challenge reactor analysis to inform preconceptual core design decisions: Sensitivity study of transient analysis in a hydride-moderated microreactor

The Transformational Challenge Reactor (TCR) program aims to demonstrate a revolutionary design approach enabled by advanced manufacturing and data analytics in the design of nuclear reactors. This article discusses scoping analyses of preconceptual designs to inform TCR design decisions and the evaluation of sensitivities and uncertainties on postulated transient scenarios. The applicability of the systems codes TRACE and RELAP5-3D to TCR transient analysis are examined, and RELAP5-3D models are used to examine the transient response of two candidate core designs at multiple power levels. Then, the uncertainty quantification code RAVEN is used to quantify the effect of several design parameters on reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) progression at hot zero power (HZP) and hot full power (HFP) as well as to assess the impact of uncertainties in transient parameters for the pressurized loss of forced cooling (PLOFC).When results were compared, TRACE and RELAP5-3D showed good agreement in their ability to predict system behavior, but RELAP5-3D calculations were closer to analytical predictions for the RIA. Furthermore, models for a PLOFC accident in two designs (a UO2 and TRISO core) at multiple power levels showed greater temperature margins for the TRISO core at all power levels. Using this information, along with other scoping analyses and constraints, the TCR design team selected a power level of 3 MWth and a TRISO-based core design. For this design RAVEN was applied to vary RIA parameters in RELAP5-3D models at HZP and HFP to understand the effect on figures of merit such as peak power, fuel and coolant temperature, and energy deposition. This sensitivity study found that the inserted reactivity worth was the most important parameter controlling all figures of merit, but for insertion up to 1.5$ no failure of TCR fuel is anticipated. For constant reactivity insertions, the magnitude of the fuel temperature coefficient was found to have the greatest effect on all figures of merit under most circumstances. These results not only demonstrate the anticipated robust safety of the proposed TCR fuel form but also provide a reference for future metal-hydride moderated systems to understand RIA behavior. In the PLOFC, the impact of heat transfer enhancement due to wavy flow channel effects dominated the variance in peak temperatures, and variations in heat exchanger elevation provided the greatest control on natural circulation flow rate. Additionally, no fuel particle failure is anticipated in the PLOFC.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Notch insensitivity in fatigue failure of chopped carbon fiber chip-reinforced composites using experimental and computational analysis

This study focuses on the notch effect on the fatigue failure of chopped carbon fiber chip-reinforced sheet molding compound (SMC) composites by using both experimental and numerical methods. The S-N diagrams of notched specimens are first obtained experimentally, which exhibit large scatter and are shown to depend on the spatial distribution of local fiber orientations. After considering the effect of this spatial distribution by adopting a new fatigue damage parameter to normalize the results, we achieve a much better correlation in the normalized S-N diagram for all the notched specimens with different hole diameters. Next, compared with the fatigue results of smooth specimens without notches, we find that SMC composites under tension-tension fatigue loading exhibit notch-insensitivity, which renders this type of composites a better candidate in joints or similar applications. Meanwhile, the fatigue failure mechanisms of notched SMC composites are explored through a microstructure characterization procedure. On this basis, a computational micromechanics model considering the notch effect and an improved multi-scale progressive damage fatigue law, calibrated by coupon-level fatigue tests of smooth SMC composites under different loading conditions, are employed to predict the fatigue behavior of notched SMC composites. We show that detailed failure processes and fatigue life of notched SMC composites can be efficiently and adequately predicted by this computational framework.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Recommendations to Improve the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Reactor Licensing and Approval Process

Due to the urgency around climate change and associated goals for clean energy transition, and Battelle Energy Alliance's (BEA) and Idaho National Laboratory's (INL) role as the nation's nuclear energy laboratory, numerous stakeholders have asked for BEA’s thoughts and recommendations to reduce the time and costs associated with licensing new reactors at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). As an M&O contractor for an FFRDC, BEA is a long-term partner with the Government in seeking to achieve clean energy goals, yet has a level of independence needed to appropriately evaluate this topic. The views herein are informed by extensive BEA experience supporting nuclear energy endeavors including ongoing discussions with current and former regulators, applicants, and licensees. With this background in mind, the United States benefits from having an agency such as the NRC, which is viewed internationally as the leader in nuclear safety licensing and regulation. Nonetheless, while acknowledging the important nuclear safety role satisfied by the NRC, it is apparent that one of the most significant time and resource intensive activities for new reactor developers is the NRC licensing process. The time and cost to obtain NRC licenses add significant financial stress for new reactor projects and may result in abandonment of projects or failure to even begin new projects. The challenge is particularly acute for advanced reactors which may raise unique or new regulatory questions and may be smaller in size, resulting in a much higher proportional impact from regulatory and cost challenges. This situation presents a particularly troublesome risk for the nation given the urgency in which utilities are working to transition to clean, non-carbon-emitting energy sources like nuclear energy. Reforms to the NRC licensing process have the potential to greatly increase certainty and support the successful progress of new reactors. The NRC can retain its world-class nuclear safety reputation while becoming a world leader for regulatory efficiency and a critical enabler to the clean energy transition. This report describes potential NRC reforms, focusing on those with a statutory connection. Recognizing the potential tradeoffs with any proposed changes, the report attempts to highlight those considerations in the analysis of the reforms. The recommendations are presented as a set of options for consideration. Unless noted, they are independent options, offering stakeholders the option to select a subset for further consideration. Although difficult to calculate precise time improvements for some of the changes, the reforms have the potential for substantial improvements, perhaps even by a factor of two.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electric Vehicle and Charging Infrastructure Assessment in Cold-Weather Climates: A Case Study of Fairbanks, Alaska

The purpose of this report is to determine the effects that extreme cold temperatures have on electric vehicles (EVs) and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE). The adoption of EVs in extreme cold weather presents challenges that require careful analysis of efficiency and charging infrastructure. This report, "Electric Vehicle and Charging Infrastructure Assessment in Cold-Weather Climates: A Case Study of Fairbanks, Alaska," explores how EVs and EVSE perform in temperatures as low as -40 degrees C (-40 degrees F), focusing on real-world data from Teslas in Alaskan winter conditions. The findings indicate that EVs can successfully function in extreme cold, though efficiency is significantly affected. Vehicles stored in heated environments outperformed those stored outdoors, with efficiency dropping by up to 69% for outdoor storage. Despite these challenges, none of the vehicles experienced failures that prevented travel. Storing EVs indoors led to benefits such as faster preconditioning and improved efficiency, while charging in extreme cold, though slower, remained functional. Ultimately, the report concludes that with proper precautions and best practices, EVs are viable transportation solutions in cold climates. Investing in enclosed, heated storage is recommended to maximize efficiency and minimize battery strain. As advancements in battery chemistry and thermal management progress, EV adoption in extreme climates is expected to become even more feasible.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Linking classical PRA models to a dynamic PRA

Here, this paper presents a series of methods designed to incorporate classical Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models such as Event Trees (ETs) and Fault Trees (FTs) into dynamic PRA. In contrast to classical PRA, dynamic PRA couples stochastic methods with system simulators to determine the risks associated with complex systems such as nuclear power plants. Compared with classical PRA methods, they can evaluate with higher resolution the safety impact of timing and sequencing of events on the progression of the accident. As part of a dynamic PRA analysis, it is not uncommon that parts of the system to be analyzed might not require a computationally expensive simulation model. These parts could be in fact modeled by employing classical PRA models (e.g., a FT). Here, we present a set of methods and tools that can be used to link the most common classical PRA models (ETs, FTs, reliability block diagrams and Markov models) to simulation codes such as RELAP5-3D: creating a “hybrid PRA.” In order to show the potential of such an hybrid PRA we employ this method to verify ET modeling assumptions (e.g., success criteria) using a large break loss of coolant accident initiating event as a test case. In this respect, we link a set of FTs from the original PRA to the RELAP5-3D code and perform a hybrid PRA. The FTs are employed to model the control logic of several safety systems and to propagate component failures throughout the system. Provided the generated dynamic PRA data, we show how conservative assumptions in the original PRA can be identified and how such original PRA can be modified by updating success criteria captured by the set of RELAP5-3D simulation runs.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Why is the winner the best?

International benchmarking competitions have become fundamental for the comparative performance assessment of image analysis methods. However, little attention has been given to investigating what can be learnt from these competitions. Do they really generate scientific progress? What are common and successful participation strategies? What makes a solution superior to a competing method? To address this gap in the literature, we performed a multi- center study with all 80 competitions that were conducted in the scope of IEEE ISBI 2021 and MICCAI 2021. Statistical analyses performed based on comprehensive descriptions of the submitted algorithms linked to their rank as well as the underlying participation strategies revealed common characteristics of winning solutions. These typically include the use of multi-task learning (63%) and/or multi-stage pipelines (61%), and a focus on augmentation (100%), im- age preprocessing (97%), data curation (79%), and post- processing (66%). The “typical” lead of a winning team is a computer scientist with a doctoral degree, five years of experience in biomedical image analysis, and four years of experience in deep learning. Two core general development strategies stood out for highly-ranked teams: the reflection of the metrics in the method design and the focus on analyzing and handling failure cases. According to the organizers, 43% of the winning algorithms exceeded the state of the art but only 11% completely solved the respective domain problem. The insights of our study could help researchers (1) improve algorithm development strategies when approaching new problems, and (2) focus on open research questions revealed by this work.

Eisenmann, Matthias↗