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At least 55 records · Page 3

Estimating reliability by application of matrix representation

Technique based upon matrix representation and matrix collapsing calculates the probability of successfully completing manned missions and of returning the spacecrew safely to earth. This technique provides analytic expressions for each subsystem, making it possible to relate changes in subsystem reliability directly to mission success and crew safety.

Austin, W. L.↗

Extended behavioral decomposition for estimating ultrahigh reliability

Limitations of some analytic techniques in approximating the reliability of life-critical electronic systems are discussed, and a framework for the specification of recovery and fault-handling submodels is suggested. The framework makes full use of the instantaneous jump theorem by viewing the collection of interfering, premature exits from any fault handling and recovery submodel as defining a new, competing process submodel. This approach allows a greater flexibility in submodel representation, since submodels may contain arbitrary entrance arcs, exit arcs, and competing, interfering transitions with arbitrary destinations. Since the effects of near-coincident faults need not be represented as system failure events, the reliability estimates produced need not be unduly conservative. Comparisons on small models, where exact results can be computed, show substantial improvement in accuracy over earlier techniques. Implementation of the technique in an X-windows-based system, XHARP, is described.

Geist, Robert↗

A Computer Code for Gas Turbine Engine Weight And Disk Life Estimation

Reliable engine-weight estimation at the conceptual design stage is critical to the development of new aircraft engines. It helps to identify the best engine concept amongst several candidates. In this paper, the major enhancements to NASA's engine-weight estimate computer code (WATE) are described. These enhancements include the incorporation of improved weight-calculation routines for the compressor and turbine disks using the finite-difference technique. Furthermore, the stress distribution for various disk geometries was also incorporated, for a life-prediction module to calculate disk life. A material database, consisting of the material data of most of the commonly-used aerospace materials, has also been incorporated into WATE. Collectively, these enhancements provide a more realistic and systematic way to calculate the engine weight. They also provide additional insight into the design trade-off between engine life and engine weight. To demonstrate the new capabilities, the enhanced WATE code is used to perform an engine weight/life trade-off assessment on a production aircraft engine.

Tong, Michael T.↗

An Object-oriented Computer Code for Aircraft Engine Weight Estimation

Reliable engine-weight estimation at the conceptual design stage is critical to the development of new aircraft engines. It helps to identify the best engine concept amongst several candidates. At NASA Glenn (GRC), the Weight Analysis of Turbine Engines (WATE) computer code, originally developed by Boeing Aircraft, has been used to estimate the engine weight of various conceptual engine designs. The code, written in FORTRAN, was originally developed for NASA in 1979. Since then, substantial improvements have been made to the code to improve the weight calculations for most of the engine components. Most recently, to improve the maintainability and extensibility of WATE, the FORTRAN code has been converted into an object-oriented version. The conversion was done within the NASA s NPSS (Numerical Propulsion System Simulation) framework. This enables WATE to interact seamlessly with the thermodynamic cycle model which provides component flow data such as airflows, temperatures, and pressures, etc. that are required for sizing the components and weight calculations. The tighter integration between the NPSS and WATE would greatly enhance system-level analysis and optimization capabilities. It also would facilitate the enhancement of the WATE code for next-generation aircraft and space propulsion systems. In this paper, the architecture of the object-oriented WATE code (or WATE++) is described. Both the FORTRAN and object-oriented versions of the code are employed to compute the dimensions and weight of a 300- passenger aircraft engine (GE90 class). Both versions of the code produce essentially identical results as should be the case. Keywords: NASA, aircraft engine, weight, object-oriented

Tong, Michael T.↗

An Object-Oriented Computer Code for Aircraft Engine Weight Estimation

Reliable engine-weight estimation at the conceptual design stage is critical to the development of new aircraft engines. It helps to identify the best engine concept amongst several candidates. At NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC), the Weight Analysis of Turbine Engines (WATE) computer code, originally developed by Boeing Aircraft, has been used to estimate the engine weight of various conceptual engine designs. The code, written in FORTRAN, was originally developed for NASA in 1979. Since then, substantial improvements have been made to the code to improve the weight calculations for most of the engine components. Most recently, to improve the maintainability and extensibility of WATE, the FORTRAN code has been converted into an object-oriented version. The conversion was done within the NASA's NPSS (Numerical Propulsion System Simulation) framework. This enables WATE to interact seamlessly with the thermodynamic cycle model which provides component flow data such as airflows, temperatures, and pressures, etc., that are required for sizing the components and weight calculations. The tighter integration between the NPSS and WATE would greatly enhance system-level analysis and optimization capabilities. It also would facilitate the enhancement of the WATE code for next-generation aircraft and space propulsion systems. In this paper, the architecture of the object-oriented WATE code (or WATE++) is described. Both the FORTRAN and object-oriented versions of the code are employed to compute the dimensions and weight of a 300-passenger aircraft engine (GE90 class). Both versions of the code produce essentially identical results as should be the case.

Tong, Michael T.↗

Estimating Software Reliability for Space Launch Vehicles in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

It is acutely recognized in the Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA) field that software plays a defining role in overall system reliability for all modern systems across a wide variety of industries. Regardless if the software is embedded firmware for working components or elements, part of a Human-Machine-Interface, or automated command and control logic, the success of the software to fulfill its function under nominal and off-nominal environments will be a dominant contributor to system reliability. It is also recognized that software reliability prediction and estimation is one of the more challenging and questionable aspects of any PRA or system analyses due to the nature of software and its integration with physics based systems. Irrespective of this dichotomy, any incorporation of software reliability methods requires that the contributions are accountable, quantitative, and tractable. This paper provides a brief overview of software reliability methods, establishes some minimum requirements that the methods should incorporate for completeness, and provides a logic structure for applying software reliability. Model resolution will be discussed that supports current testing plans and trade studies. We will provide initial recommendations for use in the NASA PRA and present a future dynamic option for software and PRA. Space Launch Vehicle Software is recognized to be reliable in static conditions, yet relatively vulnerable to a set of failure modes in changing environments/flight phases. Two quantitative methods were chosen to incorporate software reliability into a Space Launch Vehicle PRA accounting for phase adjustments. One method predicts latent software failure using statistical methods, and the second provides estimates of coding errors and software operating system failures based on test and historical data, respectively. Software uncertainty will also be discussed. We determined that recommendations for PRA software reliability should be modeled at the software module level where multiple software components compose a module and combinations of the software architecture can lead to a functional failure.

Novack, Steven↗

Estimating Software Reliability for Space Launch Vehicles in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

It is acutely recognized in the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) field that software plays a defining role in overall system reliability for all modern systems across a wide variety of industries. Regardless of whether the software is embedded firmware for working components or elements, part of a Human-Machine-Interface, or automated command and control logic, the success of the software to fulfill its function under nominal and off-nominal environments will be a dominant contributor to system reliability. It is also recognized that software reliability prediction and estimation is one of the more challenging and questionable aspects of any PRA or system analyses due to the nature of software and its integration with physics based systems. Irrespective of this dichotomy, any incorporation of software reliability methods requires that the contributions are accountable, quantitative, and tractable. This paper provides a brief overview of software reliability methods, establishes some minimum requirements that the methods should incorporate for completeness, and provides a logic structure for applying software reliability. Model resolution will be discussed that supports current testing plans and trade studies. We will provide initial recommendations for use in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) PRA and present a future dynamic option for software and PRA. Space Launch Vehicle software is recognized to be reliable in static conditions, yet relatively vulnerable to a set of failure modes in changing environments/flight phases. Two quantitative methods were chosen to incorporate software reliability into a Space Launch Vehicle PRA accounting for phase adjustments. One method predicts latent software failure using statistical methods, and the second provides estimates of coding errors and software operating system failures based on test and historical data. Software uncertainty will also be discussed. It is determined that recommendations for PRA software reliability should be modeled at the software module level where multiple software components compose a module and combinations of the software architecture can lead to a functional failure.

Steven D. Novack↗

Measurement, estimation, and prediction of software reliability

Quantitative indices of software reliability are defined, and application of three important indices is indicated: (1) reliability measurement, (2) reliability estimation, and (3) reliability prediction. State of the art techniques for each of these procedures are presented together with considerations of data acquisition. Failure classifications and other documentation for comprehensive software reliability evaluation are described.

Hecht, H.↗

Care 3 phase 2 report, maintenance manual

CARE 3 (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation, version three) is a computer program designed to help estimate the reliability of complex, redundant systems. Although the program can model a wide variety of redundant structures, it was developed specifically for fault-tolerant avionics systems--systems distinguished by the need for extremely reliable performance since a system failure could well result in the loss of human life. It substantially generalizes the class of redundant configurations that could be accommodated, and includes a coverage model to determine the various coverage probabilities as a function of the applicable fault recovery mechanisms (detection delay, diagnostic scheduling interval, isolation and recovery delay, etc.). CARE 3 further generalizes the class of system structures that can be modeled and greatly expands the coverage model to take into account such effects as intermittent and transient faults, latent faults, error propagation, etc.

Bryant, L. A.↗

The CARE 3 Phase 3 Report: Test and Evaluation

CARE 3 (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation, version three) is a computer program designed to help estimate the reliability of complex, redundant systems; although the program can model a wide variety of redundant structures, it was developed specifically for fault-tolerant avionics systems, systems distinguished by the need for extremely reliable performance since a system failure could well result in the loss of human life. CARE 3 further generalizes the class of system structures that can be modeled and greatly expands the coverage model to take into account such effects as intermittent and transient faults, latent faults, error propagation, etc. The initial test and evaluation of CARE 3 are reported.

Stiffler, J. J.↗

CARE 3 phase 2 report - mathematical description

CARE III (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation, version three) a computer program designed to help estimate the reliability of complex, redundant systems is described. Although the program can model a wide variety of redundant structures, it was developed specifically for fault tolerant avionics systems. CARE III generalizes the class of system structures that can be modeled and greatly expands the coverage model to take into account such effects as intermittent and transient faults, latent faults, and error propagation.

Stiffler, J. J.↗

Toward unbiased determination of the redshift evolution of Lyman-alpha forest clouds

The possibility of using D(sub A), the mean depression of a quasar spectrum due to Ly-alpha forest absorption, to study the number density evolution of the Ly-alpha forest clouds is examined in some detail. Current D(sub A) measurements are made against a continuum that is a power-law extrapolation from the continuum longward of Ly-alpha emission. Compared to the line-counting approach, the D(sub A)-method has the advantage that the D(sub A) measurements are not affected by line-blending effects. However, we find using low-redshift quasar spectra obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), where the true continuum in the Ly-alpha forest can be estimated fairly reliably because of the much lower density of the Ly-alpha forest lines, that the extrapolated continuum often deviates systematically from the true continuum in the forest region. Such systematic continuum errors introduce large errors in the D(sub A) measurements. The current D(sub A) measurements may also be significantly biased by the possible presence of the Gunn-Peterson absorption. We propose a modification to the existing D(sub A)-method, namely, to measure D(sub A) against a locally established continuum in the Ly-alpha forest. Under conditions that the quasar spectrum has good resolution and S/N to allow for a reliable estimate of the local continuum in the Ly-alpha forest, the modified D(sub A) measurements should be largely free of the systematic uncertainties suffered by the existing D(sub A) measurements. We also introduce a formalism based on the work of Zuo (1993) to simplify the application of the D(sub A)-method(s) to real data. We discuss the merits and limitations of the modified D(sub A)-method, and conclude that it is a useful alternative. Our findings that the extrapolated continuum from longward of Ly-alpha emission often deviates systematically from the true continuum in the Ly-alpha forest present a major problem in the study of the Gunn-Peterson absorption.

Lu, Limin↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Turbine-Driven Pumps 1998–2018

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of turbine-driven pumps (TDPs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2018 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Consolidated Events Database (ICES). The TDP failure modes considered are failure to start (FTS), failure to run less than or equal to one hour (FTR≤1H), failure to run more than one hour (FTR>1H), and normally running systems FTS and failure to run (FTR). The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. A highly statistically significant decreasing trend was identified in the standby TDP unavailability estimates.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Air-Operated Valves 1998–2020

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of air-operated valves (AOVs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2020 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The AOV failure modes considered are failure-to-open/close (FTOC), failure to operate or control (FTOP), and spurious operation (SO). The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. The following trends were identified for the most recent 10-year period: o Extremely statistically significant increasing trend for the frequency of FTOC demands (demands per reactor year) for low-demand (= 20 demands per year) AOVs o Extremely statistically significant increasing trend for the frequency of FTOC demands for high-demand (> 20 demands per year) AOVs o Highly statistically significant decreasing trend for the failure rate of FTOP for low-demand AOVs o Highly statistically significant decreasing trend for the frequency of FTOP events (failures per reactor year) for low-demand AOVs o Statistically significant decreasing trend for the failure rate of SO for low-demand AOVs o Statistically significant decreasing trend for the frequency of SO events (failures per reactor year) for low-demand AOVs.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Motor-Operated Valves 1998-2020

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of motor-operated valves (MOVs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2020 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The MOV failure modes considered are fail to open or close (FTOC), fail to operate or control (FTOP), and spurious operation (SO). The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. The following increasing trend was identified for MOVs for the most recent 10-year period: • Low-demand MOV frequency of FTOC demands (demands per reactor year). The following increasing trends were identified for MOVs for the most recent 10-year period: • Low-demand MOV FTOC failure probability • Low-demand MOV frequency of FTOC events (failures per reactor year).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗