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Results for “scenario reduction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+)

We present the result of the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, MISMIP+. MISMIP+ is intended to be a benchmark for ice-flow models which include fast sliding marine ice streams and floating ice shelves and in particular a treatment of viscous stress that is sufficient to model buttressing, where upstream ice flow is restrained by a downstream ice shelf. A set of idealized experiments first tests that models are able to maintain a steady state with the grounding line located on a retrograde slope due to buttressing and then explore scenarios where a reduction in that buttressing causes ice stream acceleration, thinning, and grounding line retreat. The majority of participating models passed the first test and then produced similar responses to the loss of buttressing. We find that the most important distinction between models in this particular type of simulation is in the treatment of sliding at the bed, with other distinctions – notably the difference between the simpler and more complete treatments of englacial stress but also the differences between numerical methods – taking a secondary role.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Ka-band study: 1988

The Ka-band study team was chartered in late 1987 to bring together all the planning elements for establishing 32 GHz (Ka-band) as the primary downlink frequency for deep-space operation, and to provide a stable baseline from which to pursue that development. This article summarizes the results of that study at its conclusion in mid-1988, and corresponds to material presented to NASA's Office of Space Operations on July 14, 1988. For a variety of reasons, Ka-band is the right next major step in deep-space communications. It offers improved radio metric accuracy through reduced plasma sensitivity and increased bandwidth. Because of these improvements, it offers the opportunity to reduce costs in the flight radio system or in the DSN by allocating part of the overall benefits of Ka-band to this cost reduction. A mission scenario is being planned that can drive at least two and possibly all three of the DSN subnets to provide a Ka-band downlink capability by the turn of the century. The implementation scenario devised by the study team is believed to be feasible within reasonable resource expectations, and capable of providing the needed upgrade as a natural follow-on to the technology development which is already underway.

Layland, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Adaptive artificial neural network for autonomous robot control

The topics are presented in viewgraph form and include: neural network controller for robot arm positioning with visual feedback; initial training of the arm; automatic recovery from cumulative fault scenarios; and error reduction by iterative fine movements.

Michael K Arras↗
NASA NTRS2008

Evaluation of Sulfur 'Concrete' for Use as a Construction Material on the Lunar Surface

Combining molten sulfur with any number of aggregate materials forms, when solid, a mixture having attributes similar, if not better, to conventional water-based concrete. As a result the use of sulfur "concrete" on Earth is well established, particularly in corrosive environments. Consequently, discovery of troilite (FeS) on the lunar surface prompted numerous scenarios about its reduction to elemental sulfur for use, in combination with lunar regolith, as a potential construction material; not requiring water, a precious resource, for its manufacture is an obvious advantage. However, little is known about the viability of sulfur concrete in an environment typified by extreme temperatures and essentially no atmosphere. The experimental work presented here evaluates the response of pure sulfur and sulfur concrete subjected to laboratory conditions that approach those expected on the lunar surface, the results suggesting a narrow window of application.

Grugel, R. N.↗
NASA NTRS2013

ISECG Global Exploration Roadmap: A Stepwise Approach to Deep Space Exploration

In 2011, ISECG released the Global Exploration Roadmap (GER), advancing the "Global Exploration Strategy: The Framework for Coordination" by articulating the perspectives of participating agencies on exploration goals and objectives, mission scenarios, and coordination of exploration preparatory activities. The GER featured a stepwise development and demonstration of capabilities ultimately required for human exploration of Mars. In 2013 the GER was updated to reflect the ongoing evolution of agency's exploration policies and plans, informed by individual agency and coordinated analysis activities that are relevant to various elements of the GER framework as well as coordinated stakeholder engagement activities. For this release of version 2 of the GER in the mid 2013 timeframe, a modified mission scenario is presented, more firmly reflecting the importance of a stepwise evolution of critical capabilities provided by multiple partners necessary for executing increasingly complex missions to multiple destinations and leading to human exploration of Mars. This paper will describe the updated mission scenario, the changes since the release of version 1, the mission themes incorporated into the scenario, and risk reduction for Mars missions provided by exploration at various destinations.

Martinez, Roland↗
NASA NTRS2003

Relationship between Aircraft Noise Contour Area and Noise Levels at Certification Points

The use of sound exposure level contour area reduction has been proposed as an alternative or supplemental metric of progress and success for the NASA Quiet Aircraft Technology program, which currently uses the average of predicted noise reductions at three community locations. As the program has expanded to include reductions in airframe noise as well as reduction due to optimization of operating procedures for lower noise, there is concern that the three-point methodology may not represent a fair measure of benefit to airport communities. This paper addresses several topics related to this proposal: (1) an analytical basis for a relationship between certification noise levels and noise contour areas for departure operations is developed, (2) the relationship between predicted noise contour area and the noise levels measured or predicted at the certification measurement points is examined for a wide range of commercial and business aircraft, and (3) reductions in contour area for low-noise approach scenarios are predicted and equivalent reductions in source noise are determined.

Powell, Clemans A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating the Benefits of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Usage at Chicago O’Hare International Airport on Ultrafine Particle Exposure and Mortalities Reductions

The expanding commercial aviation sector necessitates diverse energy sources, and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) have emerged as a promising option. Widespread SAF adoption can help meet transportation fuel demand and offer health benefits for people residing near airports or along airport landing and takeoff (LTO) pathways, where elevated levels of aircraft-derived air pollution often exist. Blending SAF with traditional jet fuels can reduce ultrafine particle (UFP) emissions, which may improve health of near airport population. We analyzed a population of about 8 million people in 1925 census tracts around the Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD). We conducted a risk assessment to estimate anticipated UFP reductions for three adoption scenarios using blends of traditional jet fuels with 5, 25, and 50% SAF across all flights landing and taking off from ORD. We calculated baseline estimates of UFP emissions using ORD flight data, a dispersion model, and a calibration function derived from mobile monitoring data. We used this baseline UFP emission profile across the study area to estimate population-weighted UFP, as well as the attributable case reductions (ACRs) and attributable mortality rate reductions (AMRRs) across the demographic distribution around the airport, based on the SAF blending scenarios. We found a positive association of SAF blending with UFP reductions, particularly near the airport and along LTO flight pathways. Our study showed that the population-weighted UFP across different demographics was similar. ACRs were largely dependent on individual demographic populations, while AMRRs for all populations were relatively similar, with an estimated 0.3 (95% range: 0.2−0.3), 1.1 (0.9−1.4), and 1.8 (1.5−2.2) fewer mortalities per 100,000 people per year expected with the adoption of 5, 25, and 50% SAF blends, respectively. This study indicates that communities near ORD, across a range of demographics, may benefit similarly from SAF adoption, thus highlighting how SAF adoption may offer an opportunity to improve health outcomes like aviation UFP-related mortalities around airports.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH 4 ) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH 4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Multi-Model Framework for Assessing Long- and Short-Term Climate Influences on the Electric Grid

Climate change influences many aspects of the electric grid, but prior work and industry practices often ignore the potential effects of changing climate, or they only consider a single effect or individual effects in isolation. Challenges vary with each grid and include adapting to long-term trends such as changing temperature and precipitation or shorter-term events such as drought or storms that could increase in frequency or intensity. Here we present a multi-model framework designed to analyze the effects of long and short-term climate impacts in combination. This framework couples capacity expansion and production cost models with hydrologic models and future climate scenario data to analyze alternative climate and energy futures at high spatial, temporal, and process resolutions. Furthermore, we constructed and evaluated the results of a suite of simulated scenarios exploring climate impacts on capacity investment and stress-tested the resulting future infrastructures using hourly dispatch modeling under alternative drought and load conditions. We demonstrate the approach through a case study of the U.S. Western Interconnection, where climate impacts depend on interactions between temperature-induced load, water availability for hydropower, technology competitiveness, and demand flexibility. Changes in 2038 generating capacity range from -8.5-16.6 GW, and changes in 2038 transmission capacity range from -1-2 GW. Capacity increases are driven by higher load from higher temperatures, while capacity reductions can be achieved in scenarios with higher future hydropower availability and increased demand flexibility. Scenarios requiring additional capacity cost an additional $\$5$-$\$17$ billion (discounted) from 2018 to 2038; however, scenarios with capacity reductions cost $\$1$-$\$18$ billion less. Stress tests on four 2038 infrastructures demonstrated that the identified systems were able to serve at least 99.999% of load and 99.96% of reserves. However, drought and unexpected high-load conditions can result in reduced capacity to respond to contingency events we did not model. Although these results are system and scenario specific, they highlight the importance of considering multiple climate change impacts simultaneously in long-term planning efforts and demonstrate a multi-model, multiscale approach that can be flexibly applied to any system and set of climate change concerns.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Biofuel Production and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential

Under two biomass supply scenarios presented in this study, between 56 and 81 B GGE/year of biofuel could be produced. The corresponding GHG reduction potential is between to 410 million 635 billion Mt CO2e/year. This volume of biofuel is sufficient to replace a majority of fuel demand in hard-to-electrify aviation, marine, rail and off-road transportation by 2050. Through pathway selection and process design, sufficient sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) could be produced to exceed the projected 35 B gpy of domestic aviation fuel demand by 2050. The external hydrogen required to produce this volume of fuel is estimated to be between 3.5 to 5.2 Mt/year.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying health benefits of sustainable aviation fuels: Modeling decreased ultrafine particle emissions and associated impacts on communities near the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport

Exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP, ≤100 nm) is an emerging health concern linked to premature mortality, with jet fuel combustion identified as a significant source of UFPs near airports. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) adoption has the potential to reduce aviation-related UFPs and may particularly benefit populations who reside nearby. However, assessing aviation-specific impacts on health remains challenging due to the lack of tools capable of addressing: fine-scale exposure evaluation, novel ambient pollutants, and groups with increased exposure or susceptibility. We develop and apply a method to estimate reductions in mortality associated with aviation-related UFP reductions at the Seattle-Tacoma (SEA-TAC) International Airport under SAF adoption scenarios, with a focus on near-airport communities. Using UFP exposure surfaces generated from AERMOD modeling, flight count data, and UFP measurements, we evaluated UFP reductions under various control scenarios. We estimated mortality reductions by combining this with population data, baseline mortality, and a hazard ratio of 1.012 (95 % confidence interval: 1.010, 1.015) per interquartile range increment of 2723 particles/cm 3 . Our analysis included 412 census tracts representing almost 1.5 million adults. Baseline aviation-related UFP exposures averaged 1145 (SD: 277) particles/cm 3 . The highest baseline concentrations and subsequent reductions under SAF scenarios were near SEA-TAC. Mortality case reductions averaged between 3.1 (95 % range: 2.5–3.7) for a 5 % UFP reduction to 31.0 (24.6–37.4) for a 50 % reduction, with corresponding mortality rate reductions of 0.2 (0.2–0.3) to 2.1 (1.7–2.5) cases per 100,000 people per year. Mortality rate reductions were larger among populations residing closer to SEA-TAC, including those that were Hispanic or Latino, below-poverty, and did not identify as White. Reducing aviation-related UFPs through SAF adoption could lead to lower mortality, particularly in near-airport communities. This reproducible approach can be adapted to other settings to evaluate health benefits from aviation-related UFP reductions.

Aviation-related air pollution↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the Air Quality Impacts of Future Energy Scenarios

Many greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction measures achieve simultaneous reductions in air pollutants. Human-Earth system models can estimate such emission changes in the energy system but using them in chemistry-transport models (CTMs) to study their air quality impacts involves resource-intensive emissions processing. This is greatly simplified by an emissions scaling approach linking state-level emissions estimated by a human-Earth system model to a CTM. A scenario continuing pre-2022 energy policy in the U.S. to 2050 shows widespread air quality improvements over the 2015 baseline from SO 2 and NO x emission reductions of 50–80% from electricity generation and light-duty vehicles. Scenarios of GHG mitigation and vehicle electrification at the state and national level add further benefits. However, PM 2.5 increases from increased use of wood heating and bioenergy suggest that additional PM 2.5 management may be needed when using biofuels. In conclusion, this approach helps assess multiple future energy scenarios efficiently without sacrificing chemical detail in the air quality simulations.

air quality↗
DOE OSTI2023

A review of crosstalk polymorphic circuits and their scalability

Using a control variable, the functionality of Polymorphic circuits can be modified, making them adaptable and useful for reconfiguring circuit behavior — all the way from gate level to system level. State-of-the art polymorphic circuits are based on custom non-linear circuit design or emerging devices such as ambipolar FET, configurable magnetic devices etc. While some of these approaches are inefficient in performance, others involve exotic devices. The Crosstalk computing based polymorphic circuits offer a fresh perspective. In Crosstalk, the interconnect interference between nanoscale metal lines is intentionally engineered to exhibit the programmable Boolean logic behavior. This approach relies on the coupling between metal lines and not on the transistors for computing, resulting in better scalability, security by obscurity, and fault tolerance by reconfiguration. Our novel approach is backed by the mathematical formulation that conveys the rationale to generalize and achieve a wide variety of polymorphic circuits. Our experiments, including design, simulation, and Power Performance Area (PPA) characterization results indicate that crosstalk circuits provide significant improvement in transistor count (about 3x), switching energy (2x), and speed (1.5x) for polymorphic logic circuits. In the best-case scenario, the transistor count reduction is 5x. This paper presents Crosstalk computing’s fundamentals, polymorphism and the scalability aspects to compete/co-exist with CMOS for digital logic implementations below 10 nm. Our scalability study uses Open Source 7 nm PDK, considers all process variation aspects and accommodates worst-case scenarios. The study results for various benchmark circuits show that the Crosstalk technology is a viable alternative to CMOS for digital logic implementations below 10 nm, having 48% density, 57% power, and 10% performance gains over equivalent CMOS counterparts. Finally, we compare Crosstalk Polymorphic Circuit design technique with similar approaches described in related works and discuss its features and constraints.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Trash Compaction Processing System (TCPS) Technology Demonstration and Risk Reduction Updates FY23-FY24

The Next STEP Phase BTrash Compaction Processing System (TCPS) is being developed for a technology demonstration on the International Space Station(ISS) to process common spacecraft consumables trash such as food packaging and clothing to reduce trash storage volume, recover water, safen(e.g. reduce biological activity), and shape the trash for storage, jettison, reuse (e.g.,radiation shielding) and/or recycling. Sierra Space is developing the flight demonstration hardware and National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA) continues to conduct risk reduction activities to exploreoperational scenarios, setting the stage for successful on-orbit tests. After the flight demonstration on ISS, the TCPS becomes available to be infused into NASA short-and long-term missions.This paper will discuss the rationale for the updated requirement definitions outlined in the 2023 International Conference on Environmental System TCPS paper and the ongoing risk reduction activities. In addition, drawing from lessons learned in the development of the TCPS, a discussion of other compression technologies will be introduced for various mission types.

Trash Compaction Processing System↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Trash Compaction Processing System (TCPS) Technology Demonstration and Risk Reduction Updates FY23-FY24 Presentation

The Next STEP Phase BTrash Compaction Processing System (TCPS) is being developed for a technology demonstration on the International Space Station(ISS) to process common spacecraft consumables trash such as food packaging and clothing to reduce trash storage volume, recover water, safen(e.g. reduce biological activity), and shape the trash for storage, jettison, reuse (e.g.,radiation shielding) and/or recycling. Sierra Space is developing the flight demonstration hardware and National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA) continues to conduct risk reduction activities to exploreoperational scenarios, setting the stage for successful on-orbit tests. After the flight demonstration on ISS, the TCPS becomes available to be infused into NASA short-and long-term missions.This paper will discuss the rationale for the updated requirement definitions outlined in the 2023 International Conference on Environmental System TCPS paper and the ongoing risk reduction activities. In addition, drawing from lessons learned in the development of the TCPS, a discussion of other compression technologies will be introduced for various mission types.

Trash Compaction Processing System↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating long-term emission impacts of large-scale electric vehicle deployment in the US using a human-Earth systems model

While large-scale adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) globally would reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and traditional air pollutant emissions from the transportation sector, emissions from the electric sector, refineries, and potentially other sources would change in response. Here, a multi-sector human-Earth systems model is used to evaluate the net long-term emission implications of large-scale EV adoption in the US over widely differing pathways of the evolution of the electric sector. Our results indicate that high EV adoption would decrease net CO 2 emissions through 2050, even for a scenario where all electric sector capacity additions through 2050 are fossil fuel technologies. Greater net CO 2 reductions would be realized for scenarios that emphasize renewables or decarbonization of electricity production. Net air pollutant emission changes in 2050 are relatively small compared to expected overall decreases from recent levels to 2050. States participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative experience greater CO 2 and air pollutant reductions on a percentage basis. These results suggest that coordinated, multi-sector planning can greatly enhance the climate and environmental benefits of EVs. Additional factors are identified that influence the net emission impacts of EVs, including the retirement of coal capacity, refinery operations under reduced gasoline demands, and price-induced fuel switching in residential heating and in the industrial sector.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

CO2ROpt (Feedstock Allocation Optimization Model) [SWR-22-13]

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains a critical challenge for the transportation and chemical sectors. The electrochemical reduction of carbon dioxide is a potential pathway for production of fuels and chemicals that uses atmospheric carbon dioxide as a feedstock. Here we present an analysis of the potential for carbon dioxide captured from point sources and via direct air capture to be utilized in electrochemical reduction under different market scenarios. Using a numerical optimization framework and national data sets, scenarios for nationwide production of ethylene, formate, and carbon monoxide are evaluated at scales comparable to current production of these molecules in the United States. We show that developing a network for production of these products at scale requires capture and utilization of significant portions of the carbon dioxide that is currently emitted from large stationary point sources. Because carbon dioxide point sources are spatially and compositionally variable, their use for carbon dioxide reduction depends on electricity prices, capture cost, and location. If the power sector in the United States is decarbonized, carbon dioxide supply decreases significantly, increasing the importance of utilizing other carbon dioxide streams, and increasing the likelihood that direct air capture plays a role in supplying carbon dioxide feedstocks. These findings provide a first insight into the feedstock and energy constraints for carbon dioxide reduction.

Badgett, Alex↗
NASA NTRS2018

Challenges and Opportunities for Subsonic Transport X-Plane Acoustic Flight Research

Aircraft system noise aspects of experimental aircraft acoustic flight research are analyzed. Experimental aircraft are seen as a key development step toward the introduction of a full scale low noise subsonic transport in the future, especially when considering an unconventional aircraft configuration integrating a range of advanced noise reduction technologies. Possible design scenarios for an experimental aircraft are considered where the scale of the experimental aircraft relative to the future, full scale aircraft is likely a major cost driver. Aircraft system noise predictions are presented for a NASA modeled Mid- Fuselage Nacelle subsonic transport concept. The predictions are made for the total airframe system noise at 100, 50, 25, and 12.5% scale of the full scale, future version of the concept, both without and then with a set of noise reduction technologies. The noise reduction technologies include the dual use fairing of the Krueger flap, the continuous mold line for the trailing edge high lift flap, and the pod gear concept for the main gear. The predictions are treated as simulations of flight test measurements of an experimental aircraft that are then processed to full scale as flight data would be. The analysis shows that the combined impact of frequency shift, atmospheric absorption, and background noise cutoff is to establish a realistic upper limit on useful frequency from the experimental aircraft noise. The implications for instrumentation requirements are also noted for high frequency, as well as for the challenge of identifying sources that are reduced significantly by the proposed noise reduction technologies. For the experimental acoustic flight research to be most useful for the objectives of improving the prediction of the future full scale aircraft, it is indicated that the scale should be above 75%. As the demonstrator scale approaches 50%, the limitations become more severe for direct impact to the prediction of the full scale future concept.

Thomas, Russell H.↗