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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Verification and validation of the open-source plasma fluid code: Zapdos

Zapdos is an open-source finite element plasma fluid solver based on the MOOSE multiphysics framework. This paper outlines Zapdos verification, benchmarking, and validation efforts for 1D and 2D RF capacitively coupled plasma discharge models for mid-range pressures (0.1 - 1 Torr). The verification process involved using the method of manufactured solutions to assess Zapdos spatial and temporal error convergence. L2 errors ranged from 10 -2 to 10 -4 , while the convergence’s slope were in agreement with the predicted slopes for the tested variable and time integration orders. The benchmarking process involved comparisons to previously results from the validated finite element code, LSODI. These works included 1D and 2D simulations for a range of plasma parameters (densities, temperatures, voltage, etc.). For the 1D cases, Zapdos and LSODI results were in very good agreement. In the 2D cases, variable behaviors matched, with slight discrepancies in peak values. The validation process involved comparisons to experimental works including electron density measurements by microwave interferometry and metastable density measurements by planar laser-induced fluorescence imaging. Results shown reasonable agreement at higher pressure, with results starting to diverge at low pressures. Furthermore, probable causes for this diverges are the limitation of the fluid assumption for plasmas at low pressure, or the need for more robust boundary conditions. Overall, Zapdos shown reasonable results for the verification, benchmarking, and validation efforts, and Zapdos can be downloaded at https://github.com/shannon-lab/zapdos.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mapping snow depth and volume at the alpine watershed scale from aerial imagery using Structure from Motion

Time series mapping of snow volume in the mountains at global scales and at resolutions needed for water resource management is an unsolved challenge to date. Snow depth mapping by differencing surface elevations from airborne lidar is a mature measurement approach filling the observation gap operationally in a few regions, primarily in mountain headwaters in the Western United States. The same concept for snow depth retrieval from stereo- or multi-view photogrammetry has been demonstrated, but these previous studies had limited ability to determine the uncertainties of photogrammetric snow depth at the basin scale. For example, assessments used non-coincident or discrete points for reference, masked out vegetation, or compared a subset of the fully snow-covered study domain. Here, using a unique data set with simultaneously collected airborne data, we compare snow depth mapped from multi-view Structure from Motion photogrammetry to that mapped by lidar at multiple resolutions over an entire mountain basin (300 km 2 ). After excluding reconstruction errors (negative depths), SfM had lower snow-covered area (~27%) and snow volume (~16%) compared to lidar. The reconstruction errors were primarily in areas with vegetation, shallow snow (< 1 m), and steep slopes (> 60°C). Across the overlapping snow extent, snow depths compared well to lidar with similar mean values (< 0.03 m difference) and snow volume (± 5%) for output resolutions of 3 m and 50 m, and with a normalized median absolute deviation of 0.19 m. Our results indicate that photogrammetry from aerial images can be applied in the mountains but would perform best for deeper snowpacks above tree line.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Artificial intelligence models, photos, and data associated with the manuscript “Quantifying Streambed Grain Size, Uncertainty, and Hydrobiogeochemical Parameters Using Machine Learning Model YOLO” (v2)

This data package is associated with the manuscript “Quantifying Streambed Grain Size, Uncertainty, and Hydrobiogeochemical Parameters Using Machine Learning Model YOLO” published in Water Resources Research (Chen et al., 2024). This data package includes the training, validation, testing, and prediction data used by the artificial intelligence (AI) model for automated grain size and hydro-biogeochemistry quantification using streambed photos. The grain size data are extracted for each photo using You Look Only Once (YOLO), a pre-trained object detection model. This data package was originally published in October 2023. It was updated August 2025 (v2; new and modified files). File and folder names were not revised to indicate changes. See the change history section in the readme for more details. Please see flmd.csv for a list of all files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. Please see dd.csv for a data dictionary that defines the column headers of .csv files in the data package. This dataset is comprised of one data folder containing (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) readme; and (4) six subfolders. Subfolders 1 to 4 include the training, validation, testing, and prediction data. Subfolder 5_Summary includes the summary results of different combinations of training, validation, testing, and prediction data. Subfolder 6_SupplementalData includes additional data downloaded from public sources (Kaufman et al., 2023a; Kaufman et al., 2023b; Garefalakis et al., 2023; Mair et al., 2024; https://github.com/river-corridors-sfa/Geospatial_variables). In total, the data package includes 110 folders and 44,283 files. These files include 9,047 .jpg photos, 1 .png photo, 3 .tif photos; 26,639 photo labels and individual grain sizes and probability from AI (.txt); 8,447 grain size distribution data (.dat); and 126 CSV files for results summary, and 14 required metadata files (.xlsx). The summary CSV files contain 68 columns and approximately 2,200 rows that represent photo names, site locations, recording time, GPS coordinates, grains sizes (D10, D50, D60, and D84), number of grains, and additional hydro-biogeochemical data such as water depth, flow velocity, Manning’s coefficient, friction factor, hydraulic conductivity, permeability, streambed interstitial velocity magnitude, mass transfer rate, and nitrate uptake velocity. The photos were obtained from 75 sites in the Yakima River Basin and the Columbia River shorelines, and other associated data from samples and sensors obtained when the photos were taken are publicly available (Fulton et al. 2022; Grieger et al. 2023). All files are .csv, .txt, .dat, .jpg, or .pdf. We acknowledge the Yakama Nation as owners and caretakers of the lands where we collected some of these data. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Revisiting a minimally destructive analytic approach for determining electrochemical kinetic parameters: Measuring aluminum corrosion across a wide pH range based on the Butler-Volmer equation

Here, this study revisits the three-point sampling of the simplified Butler-Volmer equation to address the limitations of strong potentiodynamic polarization, which can introduce irreversible damage and uncertainty in corrosion analysis. The method extracts electrochemical kinetic parameters while minimizing polarization effects, evaluates noise sensitivity relative to overpotential, and accounts for errors from signal noise, OCP drift, ohmic resistance, and mass-transfer constraints. Verified against the Tafel extrapolation method for aluminum corrosion across a wide pH range, this low-polarization approach enables accurate evaluations with specific error estimates, offering a robust alternative to linear polarization resistance methods that assume constant Tafel slopes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing and high-sensitivity sensor spatial surveying of stream temperature

Measuring surface water temperature spatial variability is needed to estimate the interaction between surface water and groundwater, evaluate fish habitat and thermal inertia, and to estimate streamflow frequency and duration. Fiber optic distributed temperature sensing (FO-DTS) has been used in rivers and lakes, providing high-resolution and sensitive temperature monitoring over large temporal and spatial scales. However, in streams with cobbly or bedrock-lined streambeds and variable bathymetry, use of FO-DTS to measure temperature close to the surface water and groundwater interface can be challenging if even feasible. FO-DTS can also be costly, involve difficult installations, and require an advanced understanding of the technology, calibration, and data processing. In this study, we compared FO-DTS stream temperature survey results to an alternative temperature survey method employing a towed transect of high-resolution temperature loggers spaced at 1-m and transported in the stream along the study reach, to measure the spatial distribution of stream-water temperature in East Fork Poplar Creek near Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA. We assessed the applicability and limitations of the two methods, and quantitatively compared in-situ temperature survey results measured simultaneously with each method. Regression results showed strong temporal and spatial correlation between the two methods. Differences were only elevated near the stream banks in areas that were coincident with correlation slope deviations from unity, which was attributed to shallower water and lower data density. Kriging standard errors were also low at channel center with minor increases near the stream banks. Furthermore, the results suggested that the array of the individual temperature sensors can provide a practical alternative to FO-DTS for thermal characterization of surface water, providing slightly lower spatial and temporal resolution, but with higher accuracy of temperature measurement, with greater simplicity, and with a broader range of conditions where it may be applied.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

OpenCSP v.1.0

SAND2024-08987O OpenCSP analyzes and improves the performance of optical mirrors that reflect sunlight and concentrate it onto a receiver. The algorithms in this library analyze the flow of light from an original source—such as the sun—reflecting off one or more mirrors, and onto a receiver, optical screen, or camera. OpenCSP also analyzes optical systems using other techniques, such as shape or slope comparison. The software calculates aggregate properties of the optical system, such as its efficiency, manufacturing error, pointing control error, expected performance, and other useful parameters. OpenCSP also includes high-level tools, such as Open SOFAST, a program that obtains high-resolution measurement of CSP mirrors, full heliostats, and other CSP collectors. OpenCSP supports producing meaningful output data to help CSP designers and field operators improve the performance of their systems. OpenCSP also includes classes and functions that support these calculations, including input utilities, analysis output libraries, geometric constraint analysis for drone flight planning, and more. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Brost, Randolph↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measurement Uncertainty of Highly Asymmetrically Curved Elliptical Mirrors Using Multi-Pitch Slope Stitching Technique

Soft X-ray off-axis elliptical mirrors bring new challenges for X-ray mirror metrology. These highly asymmetrically curved elliptical cylindrical mirrors with a total slope range >10 mrad are extremely challenging to measure. Their total slope range exceeds the measuring range of most angular sensors used for X-ray mirror inspection. To overcome this problem, it is possible to stitch partial slope data by measuring the mirror at different pitch angles (multi-pitch angles). By revisiting the theory of the multi-pitch Nano-accuracy Surface Profiler (NSP), we derive the sampling position error on the mirror surface as a function of the mirror height profile and the measurement error of the pitch rotation center. When measuring “extreme”, highly asymmetrically curved, elliptical mirrors, the calculation of the mirror height profile with iterative reconstruction outperforms the classical “flat assumption” (i.e., assuming that the mirror sag is negligible). As demonstrated by our simulations, a proper tolerance evaluation on the measurement of pitch rotation center is needed to assess the measurement accuracy (systematic error) for these strongly aspherical mirrors using the multi-pitch NSP technique. Taking a real design of an “extreme” elliptical mirror as a case study, we conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to mimic the measurement and characterization process to analyze the impact of several error sources. With the measurement uncertainty of the pitch rotation center, the multi-pitch NSP measurement can estimate the grazing angle θ and the chief ray location x o with their uncertainties, as well as the slope residuals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Afterpulse correction for micro-pulse lidar to improve middle and upper tropospheric aerosol measurements

Micro-pulse lidar (MPL) measurements have been widely used in atmospheric research over the past few decades. However, the MPL afterpulse noise has a large impact on the MPL aerosol measurement in the middle and upper troposphere, and an effective correction method is still lacking. Here, a new afterpulse correction approach is presented by using measurements with low-level optically thick clouds to act as the lids blocking atmospheric signals beyond the clouds completely. Examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of this correction method. Using one-year 2014 MPL measurements at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope of Alaska (NSA) site, the impact of the correction on the aerosol measurements is quantified. The relative error (RE, %) of attenuated backscattering ratio (ABR) without the afterpulse correction is 30% and 190% at the height of 1.00 km and 9.00 km (AGL), and the RE is larger for weaker aerosol signals (ABR<2). The RE of linear depolarization ratio (LDR), which is significantly higher than that of ABR for a given aerosol layer, is highly non-linear above 3.00 km, with a value of 300%-900% for weak aerosols (ABR<2) above 3.00 km. Therefore, the afterpulse correction is critical for the middle and upper tropospheric aerosol observations. We demonstrated that our afterpulse correction can provide reasonable particle depolarization ratio (PDR) to properly identify dust aerosols. The newly developed method can be applied to long-term MPL measurements to support aerosol and mixed-phase/ice cloud interaction study at the NSA site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A daily, 250 m and real-time gross primary productivity product (2000–present) covering the contiguous United States

Abstract. Gross primary productivity (GPP) quantifies the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) fixed by plants through photosynthesis. Although as a key quantity of terrestrial ecosystems, there is a lack of high-spatial-and-temporal-resolution, real-time and observation-based GPP products. To address this critical gap, here we leverage a state-of-the-art vegetation index, near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRV), along with accurate photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), to produce a SatelLite Only Photosynthesis Estimation (SLOPE) GPP product for the contiguous United States (CONUS). Compared to existing GPP products, the proposed SLOPE product is advanced in its spatial resolution (250 m versus >500 m), temporal resolution (daily versus 8 d), instantaneity (latency of 1 d versus >2 weeks) and quantitative uncertainty (on a per-pixel and daily basis versus no uncertainty information available). These characteristics are achieved because of several technical innovations employed in this study: (1) SLOPE couples machine learning models with MODIS atmosphere and land products to accurately estimate PAR. (2) SLOPE couples highly efficient and pragmatic gap-filling and filtering algorithms with surface reflectance acquired by both Terra and Aqua MODIS satellites to derive a soil-adjusted NIRV (SANIRV) dataset. (3) SLOPE couples a temporal pattern recognition approach with a long-term Cropland Data Layer (CDL) product to predict dynamic C4 crop fraction. Through developing a parsimonious model with only two slope parameters, the proposed SLOPE product explains 85 % of the spatial and temporal variations in GPP acquired from 49 AmeriFlux eddy-covariance sites (324 site years), with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.63 gC m−2 d−1. The median R2 over C3 and C4 crop sites reaches 0.87 and 0.94, respectively, indicating great potentials for monitoring crops, in particular bioenergy crops, at the field level. With such a satisfactory performance and its distinct characteristics in spatiotemporal resolution and instantaneity, the proposed SLOPE GPP product is promising for biological and environmental research, carbon cycle research, and a broad range of real-time applications at the regional scale. The archived dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1786 (download page: https://daac.ornl.gov/daacdata/cms/SLOPE_GPP_CONUS/data/, last access: 20 January 2021) (Jiang and Guan, 2020), and the real-time dataset is available upon request.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimized manufacturing process for multilayer two-dimensional focusing mirrors in laboratory X-ray applications

Recent advances in laboratory X-ray applications require high-performance optical components that achieve exceptional imaging resolution and beam uniformity within compact experimental setups. Montel mirrors have become a preferred solution due to their unique dual-reflection focusing mechanism and a space-efficient design. Here, in this study, we present an effective manufacturing process for producing Montel mirrors tailored to focus laboratory X-ray beams. The mirrors were fabricated from single-crystal silicon substrates, chosen for their high mechanical stability and compatibility with precision polishing techniques. Our approach begins with the integration of a deterministic chemo-mechanical polishing (CMP)-based pre-shaping step followed by ion beam figuring (IBF), significantly improving manufacturing efficiency. Subsequently, our custom-developed advanced metrology and IBF techniques were employed for fabricating an off-axis, elliptical cylinder Montel mirror system with a 6-mrad total slope, with stringent optical specifications. While post-IBF processes, including multilayer coating, dicing, and gluing, introduced minor surface errors, yet their impact on performance remained negligible. The Montel mirrors manufactured with the optimized process exhibited significantly improved beam uniformity and a reduced focal spot size. These findings validate our approach as a viable solution for high-precision Montel mirror fabrication and facilitate further advancements in laboratory X-ray applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improved Frequency-Domain Steady-State Modeling of the Dual-Active-Bridge Converter Considering Finite ZVS Transition Time Effects

This article presents an improved analytical modeling (IAM) approach for the dual-active-bridge (DAB) converter in the frequency-domain. Specifically, finite transition times are incorporated into the improved modeling that are significant in DAB converters operated at high frequency. The IAM approach is first motivated by comparing traditional frequency-domain modeling against realistic simulation results in LTspice. Next, the IAM approach is mathematically developed in an iterative fashion, where the conventional frequency-domain approach is used as the initialization of the operational behavior of the converter. Subsequent iterations of the IAM algorithm incorporate finite rise- and falltimes of device output capacitances based on detailed switching behavior analyses, which may considerably perturb the desired modulation parameters (i.e., phase shift and zero states). While the initially proposed IAM approach demonstrates advantages over ideal modeling, it is still shown to exhibit errors when applied to device transitions with significant nonlinearity in parasitic output capacitance. To account for this, a three-slope approximation to the switching transition is then motivated and developed, which enables significantly improved steady-state prediction accuracy. Simulation and experimental results confirm unacceptable inaccuracies associated with the conventional frequency-domain modeling across a wide range of operating conditions, alongside enhanced accuracy provided by the proposed modeling approach.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of the equation of state on f - and p - mode oscillations of neutron stars

We investigate the impact of the neutron-star matter equation of state on the f- and p1-mode oscillations of neutron stars obtained within the Cowling approximation and linearized general relativity. The f- and p 1 -mode oscillation frequencies, and their damping times are calculated using representative sets of Skyrme Hartree-Fock and relativistic mean-field models, all of which reproduce nuclear systematics and support 2M ⊙ neutron stars. Our study shows strong correlations between the frequencies of f- and p 1 -modes and their damping times with the pressure of β-equilibrated matter at densities equal to or slightly higher than the nuclear saturation density ρ 0 . Such correlations are found to be almost independent of the composition of the stars. The frequency of the p 1 -mode of 1.4M ⊙ star is strongly correlated with the slope of the symmetry energy L 0 and β-equilibrated pressure at density ρ 0 . Compared to GR calculations, the error in the Cowling approximation for the f-mode is about 30% for neutron stars of low mass, whereas it decreases with increasing mass. Here, the accuracy of the p 1 -mode is better than 15% for neutron stars of maximum mass, and improves for lower masses and higher number of radial nodes. I.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian inference of nuclear symmetry energy from measured and imagined neutron skin thickness in Sn 116 , 118 , 120 , 122 , 124 , 130 , 132 , Pb 208 , and Ca 48

The neutron skin thickness Δr np in heavy nuclei has been known as one of the most sensitive terrestrial probes of the nuclear symmetry energy E sym (ρ) around $\frac{2}{3}$ of the saturation density ρ 0 of nuclear matter. Existing neutron skin data mostly from hadronic observables suffer from large uncertainties and their extraction from experiments are often strongly model dependent. While waiting eagerly for the promised model-independent and high-precision neutron skin data for 208 Pb and 48 Ca from the parity-violating electron scattering experiments (PREX-II and CREX at JLab as well as MREX at MESA), within the Bayesian statistical framework using the Skyrme-Hartree-Fock model we infer the posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the slope parameter L of the nuclear symmetry energy at ρ 0 from imagined Δr np ( 208 Pb)=0.15, 0.20, and 0.30 fm with a 1σ error bar of 0.02, 0.04, and 0.06 fm, respectively, as well as Δr np ( 48 Ca)=0.12, 0.15, and 0.25 fm, with different 1σ error bar of 0.01 and 0.02 fm, respectively. The results are compared with the PDFs of L inferred using the same approach from the available Δr np data for 116, 118, 120, 122, 124, 130, 132 Sn from hadronic probes. They are also compared with results from a recent Bayesian analysis of the radius and tidal deformability data of canonical neutron stars from GW170817 and NICER. The neutron skin data for Sn isotopes gives L = 45.5 $^{+ 26.5}_{-21.6}$ MeV surrounding its mean value or L = 53 . 4 $^{+ 18.6}_{ -29.5}$ MeV surrounding its maximum a posteriori value, respectively, with the latter smaller than but consistent with the L = 66 $^{+ 12}_{-20}$ MeV from the neutron star data within their 68% confidence intervals. We found that Δr np = 0.17 –0.18 fm in 208 Pb with an error bar of about 0.02 fm leads to a PDF of L compatible with that from analyzing the Sn data. To provide additionally useful information on L extracted from the Δr np of Sn isotopes, the experimental error bar of Δr np in 208 Pb should be at least smaller than 0.06 fm aimed by some current experiments. In addition, the Δr np ( 48 Ca) needs to be larger than 0.15 fm but smaller than 0.25 fm to be compatible with the Sn and/or neutron star results. To further improve our current knowledge about L and distinguish its PDFs in the examples considered, even higher precisions leading to significantly less than ±20 MeV error bars for L at 68% confidence level are necessary.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrated parameter and process learning for hydrologic and biogeochemical modules in Earth System Models

Focus area: Primary focal area #2; secondary focal area #3: Learning about parameters and processes of land surface hydrologic and biogeochemical models in Earth System models by integrating machine learning, physics, and big data. Science challenges: How do we maximally leverage big-data observations to improve hydrobiogeochemical process description and parameterization so that such modules more realistically capture hydrologic and vegetation responses and feedbacks under the future climate? For example, how can we leverage physics, limited observations of vegetation and streamflow to better estimate evapotranspiration, and, relatedly, net primary productivity, especially for drought areas? Vegetation plays a critical role in regional and global water cycles; however, existing vegetation models have failed to predict vegetation response to droughts (McDowell & Xu, 2017) , arctic greening (Keenan & Riley, 2018) , and critical transitions between forest and savanna (Hirota et al., 2011) . These studies suggest that when we build process-based models (PBM) parameterized from regional and global plant traits, we tend to poorly describe plant adaptation and local-scale competition processes. The models and their associated parameters assigned for different regions in the world are not capturing essential heterogeneity in vegetation responses at finer spatial scales. Many parameters of the land surface models control hydrology and vegetation dynamics at the same time. The heterogeneity in vegetation response is a function of (i) plant type, (ii) plant size, (iii) competition and succession, (iv) environmental controls, and (v) local variations due to the unique ecological community that are very difficult to describe (e.g., the size of gaps resulting from fire that facilitated the coexistence of pioneering species). In the demographic models, only factors (i) and (iv) were captured, and plant types were generally described only by leaf phenology and climate zones. With current demographic models, we generally consider more traits to define plant types (i) and calibrate these traits to consider factors (ii), (iii) and (iv); however, it is substantially challenging to scale to regional and global simulations due to trait variations across space (Ali et al., 2016). Moreover, it has been noted that hillslope processes, including ridge-to-valley flow and sunny vs. shady slopes are primary organizers of water, energy, and vegetation (Clark et al., 2015; Fan et al., 2019) . Although gradual improvements in the hydrologic model component in earth system models may reduce this error (at a remarkably slow pace), the long-term, gradual impact of hydrology on plant traits are not well captured. Recent work showed that the hydrologic controls exerted by groundwater and lateral flow are primary regulators of rooting depth (Fan et al., 2017) . Such hydrologic controls have seldom been reflected in vegetation model parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Forecasts on the Dark Matter Density Profiles of Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies with Current and Future Kinematic Observations

We forecast parameter uncertainties on the mass profile of a typical Milky Way dwarf spheroidal galaxy (dSph) using the spherical Jeans equation and Fisher matrix formalism. For a Draco-like system we show that radial velocity measurements for 1000 individual stars can constrain the mass contained within the effective radius of a dSph to within 5%. This is consistent with constraints extracted from current observational data. We compare two systems, a cusp and core, and demonstrate that a minimum sample of 100,000 (10,000) stars with both radial and proper motions measurements is required to disentangle their inner slopes at the 2σ (1σ) level. If using the log-slope measured at the half-light radius as a proxy for differentiating between a core or cusp slope, only 1000 line-of-sight and proper motions measurements are required; however, we show this choice of radius does not always unambiguously differentiate between core and cusped profiles. Once observational errors are below half the value of the intrinsic dispersion, improving the observational precision yields little change in the density profile uncertainties. The choice of priors in our profile shape analysis plays a crucial role when the number of stars in a system is less than 100 but does not affect the resulting uncertainties for larger kinematic samples. Our predicted 2D confidence regions agree well with those from a full likelihood analysis run on a mock kinematic data set taken from the Gaia Challenge, validating our Fisher predictions. Our methodology is flexible, allowing us to predict density profile uncertainties for a wide range of current and future kinematic data sets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Editorial: Resolving atmospheric flow in complex environments: recent experiments in terrain and forest canopies

The characterization of atmospheric flows in complex environments, which may include steep terrain slopes and heterogeneous vegetation and/or forest cover, is a long-standing challenge in boundary-layer meteorology. Atmospheric observations are complicated by the presence of transient, terrain-induced flow features, forest-canopy-atmosphere interactions, and atmospheric stability effects, not to mention the logistical hurdles involved with instrument deployment, data analysis, and quality control. Furthermore, challenges in atmospheric modeling arise due to numerical errors associated with complex terrain flows, as well as reliance on simplified parameterizations for unresolved processes such as turbulent mixing and land-surface or forest-canopy-atmosphere interactions. These modeling challenges are exacerbated in the so-called “gray zone,” wherein features of interest have length scales that are similar to the model grid spacing, or when the principal flow layer is smaller than the grid spacing (e.g., slope flows).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning and process-based modeling of spatiotemporal changes in active layer thickness across Alaska

Permafrost degradation poses a growing threat to infrastructure stability and ecosystem resilience in the rapidly warming Arctic. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of active layer thickness (ALT) across Alaska by integrating field observations, environmental datasets, a physically based Stefan model, and machine learning (ML) techniques. Using weather projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5), we assessed ALT sensitivity to projected future weather conditions. The random forest (RF) model outperformed the Stefan approach in predicting ALT on the training dataset (R² = 0.84 vs. 0.53) but demonstrated lower generalizability on the test dataset (R² = 0.24 vs. 0.54). The root mean square error (RMSE) for the RF model for training and testing ranged from 14 to 22 cm, compared to 17 and 18 cm for the Stefan model. Variable importance analysis revealed that mean annual temperature and slope angle were the strongest predictors of ALT, accounting for 19% and 18% of the variance, respectively, followed by sediment transport index (14%) and stream power index (11%). Comparative analysis of baseline ALT predictions showed the Stefan model tended to project a thicker active layer (mean ± SD: 65 ± 16 cm), compared to the RF model (mean ± SD: 59 ± 8.8) cm). Both models indicated a latitudinal gradient in ALT, with shallower depths at higher latitudes. Projected ALT increases by 2100 were estimated at 3.3 ± 2.2 cm under SSP 2-4.5 and 5.9 ± 4.0 cm under SSP 5-8.5 for the ML model, whereas the Stefan model projected substantially larger increases of 13 ± 2.6 cm (SSP 2-4.5) and 28 ± 4.4 cm (SSP5-8.5). Spatial analysis showed the greatest ALT increases in northern Alaska, with relatively smaller changes in southern regions. These findings highlight the complex, multifactorial nature of ALT dynamics and the value of hybrid modeling approaches. As rising temperatures accelerate permafrost thaw, changes in ALT can disrupt ecosystems, damage infrastructures, and enhance the release of stored soil carbon, highlighting the urgent need for improved predictive capabilities to inform adaptation strategies in the Arctic.

Climate sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shaded fraction and backtracking in single-axis trackers on rolling terrain

A generalized closed-form equation for the shaded collector fraction in solar arrays on rolling or undulating terrain is provided for single-axis tracking and fixed-tilt systems. The equation accounts for different rotation angles between the shaded and shading trackers, cross-axis slope between the two trackers, and offset between the collector plane and axis of rotation. The validity of the equation is demonstrated through comparison with numerical ray-tracing simulations and remaining minor sources of error are quantified. Additionally, a simple procedure to determine backtracking rotations for each row in an array installed on the rolling terrain (varying in the direction perpendicular to the tracker axes) is provided. The backtracking equation accounts for a desired shaded fraction (including complete shade avoidance) as well as an axis-collector offset. Test cases are provided to facilitate implementation of these equations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗