Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “solar cycle 25”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

CME Propagation Through the Heliosphere: Status and Future of Observations and Model Development

The ISWAT (International Space Weather Action Teams) heliosphere clusters H1 and H2 have a focus on interplanetary space and its characteristics, especially on the large-scale co-rotating and transient structures impacting Earth. Solar wind stream interaction regions, generated by the interaction between high-speed solar wind originating in large-scale open coronal magnetic fields and slower solar wind from closed magnetic fields, are regions of compressed plasma and magnetic field followed by high-speed streams that recur at the ~27 day solar rotation period. Short-term reconfigurations of the lower coronal magnetic field generate flare emissions and provide the energy to accelerate enormous amounts of magnetised plasma and particles in the form of coronal mass ejections into interplanetary space. The dynamic interplay between these phenomena changes the configuration of interplanetary space on various temporal and spatial scales which in turn influences the propagation of individual structures. While considerable efforts have been made to model the solar wind, we outline the limitations arising from the rather large uncertainties in parameters inferred from observations that make reliable predictions of the structures impacting Earth difficult. Moreover, the increased complexity of interplanetary space as solar activity rises in cycle 25 is likely to pose a challenge to these models. Combining observational and modeling expertise will extend our knowledge of the relationship between these different phenomena and the underlying physical processes, leading to improved models and scientific understanding and more-reliable space-weather forecasting. The current paper summarizes the efforts and progress achieved in recent years, identifies open questions, and gives an outlook for the next 5–10 years. It acts as basis for updating the existing COSPAR roadmap by Schrijver et al. (2015), as well as providing a useful and practical guide for peer-users and the next generation of space weather scientists.

Space weather↗
NASA NTRS2011

From Space Weather Toward Space Climate Time Scales: Substorm Analysis from 1993 to 2008

Magnetic activity in the Northern Hemisphere auroral region was examined during solar cycles 22 and 23 (1993- 2008). Substorms were identified from ground-based magnetic field measurements by an automated search engine. On average, 550 substorms were observed per year, which gives in total about 9000 substorms. The interannual, seasonal and solar cycle-to-cycle variations of the substorm number (R(sub ss)), substorm duration (T(sub ss)), and peak amplitude (A(sub ss)) were examined. The declining phases of both solar cycles 22 and 23 were more active than the other solar cycle phases due to the enhanced solar wind speed. The spring substorms during the declining solar cycle phase (absolute value of A(sub ss,decl)) - 500 nT) were 25% larger than the spring substorms during the ascending solar cycle years ((absolute value of A(sub ss,asc) = 400 nT). The following seasonal variation was found: the most intense substorms occurred during spring and fall, the largest substorm frequency in the Northern Hemisphere winter, and the longest-duration substorms in summer. Furthermore, we found a winter-summer asymmetry in the substorm number and duration. which is speculated to be due to the variations in the ionospheric conductivity. The solar cycle-Io-cycle variation was found in the yearly substorm number and peak amplitude. The decline from the peak substorm activity in 1994 and 2003 to the following minima took 3 years during solar cycle 22, while it took 6 years during solar cycle 23.

Tanskanen, E. I.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The solar flare heavy ion environment for single-event upsets - A summary of observations over the last solar cycle, 1973-1983

A summary of observations of the flux of 25 to 400 MeV/nucleon heavy ions from solar flares is presented covering the period from late 1973 to early 1984. Distributions of flare occurrence frequency versus fluence, energy spectra, and composition are presented for the 30 events observed during this period, to quantify the variability of the heavy ion environment. A comparison of these data to a model environment suggests some refinements to the model. LET spectra based on the worst case flare observed are presented to illustrate the significance of the flare ion distribution and the importance of accurate shielding estimates.

Chenette, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Observations of the effect of solar protons on the chemistry of the middle atmosphere

Ozone profile measurements made by backscattered ultraviolet instruments during two solar maxima are examined. Analysis of data from the BUV instrument on Nimbus 4 (1970-1978) showed three cases of ozone destruction associated with SPEs near the maximum of solar cycle 20: during events on January 25 and September 2, 1971, and during the giant event of August 4-8, 1972. Data from the SBUV instrument on Nimbus 7 (1978 present) show ozone destruction during five SPEs near the maximum of solar cycle 21: on June 7, 1979, August 21, 1979, October 13-14, 1981, July 13, 1982, and December 8, 1982. The observed response of ozone to the production of HOx and NOx by solar protons is used to better understand the complex chemistry of the middle atmosphere.

Mcpeters, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Solar cycle variations in the solar wind

The solar cycle variations of various solar wind parameters are reviewed. It is shown that there is a gradual decrease in the duration of high-speed streams from the declining phase of solar cycle 20 through the ascending phase of cycle 21 and a corresponding decrease in the annual average of the proton speed toward solar maximum. Beta, the ratio of the proton thermal pressure to magnetic pressure, undergoes a significant solar cycle variation, as expected from the variation in the IMF. Individual hourly averages of beta often exceed unity with 20 cases exceeding 10 and one case as high as 25. The Alfven Mach number shows a solar cycle variation similar to beta, lower aboard solar maximum. High-speed streams can be seen clearly in epsilon and the y component of the interplanetary magnetic field.

Freeman, John W.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Observed solar near UV variability: A contribution to variations of the solar constant

Continuous Measurements of the Solar UV have been made by an instrument on the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) since October 1981. The results for the wavelength interval 200 to 300 nm show an irradiance decrease to a minimum in early 1987 and a subsequent increase to mid-April 1989. The observed UV changes during part of solar cycles 21 to 22 represent approx. 35 percent (during the decreasing phase) and 25 percent (during the increasing phase) of the observed variations of the solar constant for the same time period as the SME measurements.

London, Julius↗
NASA NTRS1991

Large-scale solar and heliospheric magnetic fields

The magnetic structure of the extended solar corona varies with the changing photospheric field during the solar cycle. A simple potential model of the corona using solar surface observations from 1976 to the present shows how the large-scale coronal field evolves over more than a solar activity cycle. These predictions match well with large stable structures inferred from measurements of coronal electron density and the IMF, though dynamic changes are poorly modeled. The sun's polar field was about 25 stronger at solar minimum in 1986 than in 1976; the heliospheric current sheet was also flatter. In Cycle 21 the coronal and photospheric large-scale long-lived field patterns rotated every 26.9 days in the northern hemisphere; the southern field rotated every 28 days. Similar periods have been present in the IMF and in the occurrence of solar flares during the last several solar cycles.

Hoeksema, J. Todd↗
NASA NTRS2018

Helioseismic Observations of Torsional Oscillations Inside the Sun and Their Potential for Predicting Solar Cycles

The helioseismic analysis of torsional oscillations of the Sun, obtained in 1996-2018 from SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) and SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), reveals the spatio-temporal dynamics associated with the dynamo process. The data reveal new relationships between the migrating magnetic field patterns observed in synoptic magnetograms and the dynamics of torsional oscillations near the surface and in the interior. In particular, it is found that the evolution of torsional oscillations in the deep convection zone is ahead of the surface magnetic evolution by several years, and that it is related to the extended solar cycle phenomenon previously observed in the solar corona. The data show substantial differences in the torsional oscillation properties between Cycles 23 and 24 indicating fundamental changes in the dynamo regime, and also reveal initiation of Cycle 25. The helioseismology observations of the torsional oscillations open new perspectives for understanding the global dynamo processes inside the Sun, and for predicting the next solar cycle.

Oscillations↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spinel Cu–Mn–Cr Oxide Nanoparticle-Pigmented Solar Selective Coatings Maintaining >94% Efficiency at 750 °C

High-temperature concentrating solar power (CSP) system is capable of harvesting and storing solar energy as heat towards cost-effective dispatchable solar electricity. Solar selective coating is a critical component to boost its efficiency by maximizing solar absorptance and minimizing thermal emittance losses. However, maintaining a high solar-thermal conversion efficiency >90% for long-term operation at ≥750 ºC remains a significant challenge. Herein, we report spray-coated spinel Cu-Mn-Cr oxide nanoparticle-pigmented solar selective coatings on Inconel tube sections maintaining ≥94% efficiency at 750 ºC and ≥92.5% at 800 ºC under 1000x solar concentration after 60 simulated day-night thermal cycles in air, each cycle comprising 12h at 750 ºC/800 ºC and 12h cooling to 25 ºC. The solar spectral selectivity is intrinsic to the band-to-band and d-d transitions of non-stoichiometric spinel Cu-Mn-Cr oxide nanoparticles. Furthermore, this feature offers a large fabrication tolerance in nanoparticle volume fraction and coating thickness, facilitating low-cost and scalable spray-coated high-efficiency solar selective absorbers for high-temperature CSP systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1974

Magnetometeorology: Relationships between the weather and the earth's magnetic field

A comparison of meteorological pressures and the strength of the earth's magnetic field suggests that the magnetic field exerts, through some unknown process, a controlling influence on the average pressure in the troposphere at high latitudes. Changes in the length of the growing season are related to the solar cycle effects on the geomagnetic field. On average, the growing season is about 25 days longer near sunspot maximum than near sunspot minimum. Comparison of growing season and solar data reveals the geophysically interesting fact that the growing season tends to be the longest about a year after sunspot maximum.

King, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Large-scale structure of the heliospheric magnetic field - 1976-1991

A uniform set of computed large-scale coronal fields derived from photospheric field observations now exists for the interval 1976 to the present. Using this data base we can begin to compare Solar Cycle 21 with Solar Cycle 22. The character of the field and its evolution are the same, but many of the particulars are different. The polar field was about 25 percent stronger at solar minimum in 1986 than in 1976, consequently the heliospheric current sheet was confined to a narrower latitude range. In the rising phase of Cycle 21 a strong 4-sector pattern developed; the same pattern was not present in Cycle 22. Other differences include the timing of the polar field reversals and changes in latitudinal extent of the current sheet.

Hoeksema, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Forecast of an exceptionally large even-numbered solar cycle

Using the 'dynamo theory' method to predict solar activity, an accurate prediction was made for solar cycle 21 by Schatten et al. (1978). Using the same dynamo technique for solar cycle 22, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 170 + or - 25 is obtained. This large sunspot number is expected to peak in 1990 + or - 1 year. The F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 210 + or - 25 flux units. Since this value is larger than values obtained with prediction schemes based upon 'statistical' and 'periodicity' methods, it provides a useful test for the current methodology, based upon the strength of the sun's polar field near solar minimum. The predicted degree of solar activity is expected to enhance the density and temperature of the earth's thermosphere to values somewhat larger than those found in solar cycle 21. This will have an impact on the orbital lifetime of low altitude satellites.

Schatten, Kenneth H.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Using geomagnetic indices to forecast the next sunspot maximum

The Babcock (1961) 'solar dynamo' model and known interactions of the interplanetary magnetic field with the earth's magnetosophere are used to explain the relations found between geomagnetic indices at solar minimum and the sunspot number at the following solar maximum. The work of Kane (1987) is augmented by including recent smoothed aa and Ap indices. A smoothed maximum sunspot number of 163 + or - 40 to peak in October 1990 + or - 9 months for solar cycle 22 is predicted. This value is close to the Schatten and Sofia (1987) value of 170 + or - 25, predicted using more direct solar indicators.

Gonzalez, Guillermo↗
NASA NTRS1989

Numerical model of solar dynamic radiator for parametric analysis

Growth power requirements for Space Station Freedom will be met through addition of 25 kW solar dynamic (SD) power modules. Extensive thermal and power cycle modeling capabilities have been developed which are powerful tools in Station design and analysis, but which prove cumbersome and costly for simple component preliminary design studies. In order to aid in refining the SD radiator to the mature design stage, a simple and flexible numerical model was developed. The model simulates heat transfer and fluid flow performance of the radiator and calculates area mass and impact survivability for many combinations of flow tube and panel configurations, fluid and material properties, and environmental and cycle variations.

Rhatigan, Jennifer L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity of nEXO to 136 Xe charged-current interactions: Background-free searches for solar neutrinos and fermionic dark matter

We study the sensitivity of nEXO to solar neutrino charged-current interactions, 𝜈 𝑒 + 136 Xe → 136 Cs*+𝑒 − , as well as analogous interactions predicted by models of fermionic dark matter. Due to the recently observed low-lying isomeric states of 136 Cs, these interactions will create a time-delayed coincident signal observable in the scintillation channel. Here we develop a detailed Monte Carlo simulation of scintillation emission, propagation, and detection in the nEXO detector to model these signals under different assumptions about the timing resolution of the photosensor readout. We show this correlated signal can be used to achieve background discrimination on the order of 10 −9 , enabling nEXO to make background-free measurements of solar neutrinos above the reaction threshold of 0.668 MeV. We project that nEXO could measure the flux of neutrinos from the carbon-nitrogen-oxygen cycle with a statistical uncertainty of 25%, thus contributing a novel and competitive measurement toward addressing the solar metallicity problem. Additionally, nEXO could measure the mean energy of the 7 Be neutrinos with a precision of 𝜎 ≤ 1.5 keV and could determine the survival probability of 7 Be and pep solar 𝜈𝑒 with precision comparable to the state of the art. These quantities are sensitive to the Sun’s core temperature and to nonstandard neutrino interactions, respectively. Here, the strong background suppression would allow nEXO to search for charged-current interactions of fermionic dark matter in the mass range 𝑚 𝜒 = 0.668–7 MeV with a sensitivity up to three orders of magnitude better than current limits.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated Discovery of Solar Thermochemical Hydrogen Production Materials via High-Throughput Computational and Experimental Methods

In this project, combinatorial synthesis and testing methods were combined with high-throughput materials theory calculations to greatly accelerate the discovery of thermodynamically suitable candidates for green hydrogen production via a two-stage solar thermochemical water splitting (STCH) process. Over the course of the project, more than 8000 quinary and higher oxide compositions were computationally screened for STCH viability, and detailed stability calculations were performed for more than 30 of the most promising identified compositional archetypes. As a result, three new STCH capable compositional families were discovered and experimentally verified. The first, Ce x Sr 2-x MnO 4 (CSM), represents the first known Ruddlesden-Popper compound to show STCH activity, and thus demonstrates that perovskite-related structures may hold promise for this application. The second family, Sr 1-x Ce x MnO 3 (SCM), is the simple perovskite sister-analog to CSM. Sr 0.7 Ce 0.3 MnO 3 (SCM30), a member of this compositional family, was found to produce the highest hydrogen yields of any compound tested in this project, exceeding the end of project milestone target of > 150 μmol H 2 /gram oxide at a reduction temperature of 1350 °C, although only at steam-to-hydrogen ratios greater than 1000:1. Finally, we proved that a third novel Sr-and Mn-containing family, Sr 1-x Ca x Ti 1-y Mn y O 3 (SCTM), which was identified by Materials Project tools, also splits water. The behavior of the SCTM system was found to be similar to the previously discovered Sr 1-x La x Al 1-y Mn y O 3 (SLMA) family, albeit with lower H 2 yields. Across the three thrusts of the project (computational, combinatorial, and bulk testing), five journal articles were published. As part of Program End Analysis and Data Dissemination, relevant data used for the publications was uploaded to the HydroGEN Data Hub for public access, and in certain cases, results were added to public materials databases.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS1981

Radio wave scattering observations of the solar corona First-order measurements of expansion velocity and turbulence spectrum using Viking and Mariner 10 spacecraft

Radio wave scattering data were collected at 3.6 and 13 cm wavelengths by means of the radio link between the Viking orbiters and the earth during the Nov. 25, 1976 solar conjunction of Mars, which occurred near the beginning of solar cycle 21; Mariner 10 solar activity observations during 1974 are also used. It is found that the temporal frequency variance spectrum of amplitude fluctuations is useful for characterizing the bulk motion of the plasma, and the spectral index of electron density turbulence is obtained. The measurements of solar wind velocity and spectral index cover 78 days for Viking and 49 days for Mariner 10 and show the combined effects of changing heliocentric distance, solar latitude, and solar longitude as well as solar activity. It is concluded that the observational velocity profile differs significantly from the theoretical profiles in two ways: (1) the theoretical profile does not show the abrupt change in velocity at about 15 solar radii, and (2) the observational profile shows acceleration at larger radial distances than the model profiles. The observational profiles indicate velocities of less than about 150 km/sec out to 15 solar radii.

Tyler, G. L.↗