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Measuring Climate and Water Risk across the Bulk Power System

As climate impacts increase and power systems transition to renewables, planners and operators need insights into climate risks to power generation and infrastructure to ensure reliable decision-making in the short and long-term. We present a standardized, consistent mechanism for utilities and system operators to evaluate the climate- and water-related risks of their current and future grid assets. Using a risk-based approach on the combined outcomes of high-fidelity climate drivers together with water and power system models, we examine the temperature and water availability impacts within the contiguous United States to power system assets at the water basin level in three different time periods and report resulting outcomes on lost capacity across different expansion scenarios and climate models. The results indicate that air temperature has the highest effect on derating. Changes in streamflow do not have a large impact on generation capacity at the national level. Electric sector buildout scenarios each have a unique regional risk profile, depending on the technology mix and total capacity, although risks from high temperatures are significant for both traditional and renewable energy generation. Stakeholders can use this approach to monitor effects of generation capacity losses and potential impacts as climate, generation mix, and infrastructure change.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Mechanisms of Protonic Nonvolatile Memory Device

A nonvolatile memory device based on protonic transport in oxides has been proposed. The mobile H+ ions are introduced into the SiO2 layer by annealing Si/SiO2/Si structures in H2 at temperatures greater than 500 deg C. This effect has only been observed for confined oxides that have been annealed at greater than or equal to 1100 C prior to the hydrogenation anneal. This includes buried oxides such as Unibond and SIMOX as well as thermal oxides annealed with a polysilicon cap. An applied field moves the charge within the oxide and the charge stops moving when the field is removed. In a memory device, the hydrogen-annealed oxide is the gate oxide and the position of the mobile charge is sensed by the shift of the I-V curve. Much is still not understood about the motion of the charge across the buried oxide. Previous work has assumed that H+ transport and the time it takes to traverse the oxide is governed by interactions within the bulk of the oxide. Based on parameters that affect the transport time, we conclude that H+ trapping and detrapping at the Si/SiO2 interface are more important than H+ interactions within the oxide bulk. These parameters include the applied field, the H+ concentration and the oxide thickness. One consequence is that projections of device write-time based on the previous assumptions of H+ transport mechanisms may be overly optimistic.

P J Macfarlane

A Radiometric Consistent Spectral Fingerprinting Algorithm for Continuity Products of Hyperspectral Sounders

A radiometric consistent climate fingerprinting methodology has been developed to derive long-term temperature, water vapor, cloud, trace gases, and surface skin temperature anomaly time series from the hyper-spectral sounder measurements of multiple platforms. The spectral fingerprinting methodology requires the use of radiative kernels that are radiometrically consistent with observations. Radiative kernels are built using space-time averaged Jacobians that are physically retrieved from observations under all sky conditions. The physical retrieval algorithm uses the Principal Component based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM) for the forward simulation. The incorporation of multiple scattering simulation in PCRTM allows the direct radiative relationship between single field-of-view (FOV) radiance observations and corresponding thermal dynamic variables including cloud properties to be established. Therefore, radiance ?closure? can be achieved under all-sky conditions by the fingerprinting scheme. This methodology has been used to derive climate anomalies from the space-time averaged spectra of AIRS/AMSU and CrIS/ATMS. The use of a consistent fingerprinting scheme provides an effective mean of generating continuity product by merging observations from different platforms and therefore facilitating the long-term climate trend study.

Wan Wu

Optimization of a 10–Step Reduced CH₄/O₂ Combustion Mechanism for RDRE Applications

A 10-step, 9-species reduced mechanism for methane/oxygen combustion is evaluated and optimized for use in rotating detonation rocket engine (RDRE) simulations at an operating pressure of 10 bar. The mechanism is assessed against GRI-Mech 3.0 for ignition delay times, adiabatic equilibrium temperature and species, Chapman-Jouguet (CJ) detonation parameters, and laminar flame speed. A sequential Nelder–Mead optimization procedure is applied to the rate constants of reactions R1, R4, and R5, targeting ignition delay agreement over the equivalence ratio range φ = 1.0–1.4 and temperature range T = 1400–2000 K. The optimized mechanism achieves ignition delay agreement within 28% of GRI-Mech 3.0 for the temperature range relevant to RDRE operation (τ ≥ 5 μs). Adiabatic equilibrium temperatures and CJ detonation parameters are reproduced within 0.15% of GRI-Mech 3.0 values, confirming thermodynamic consistency of the mechanism. Laminar flame speed predictions deviate significantly from GRI-Mech 3.0, which is attributed to the absence of HO₂ chemistry in the reduced mechanism; this limitation does not affect RDRE simulation fidelity since laminar flame propagation is of secondary importance in RDREs.

Computational Fluid Dynamics

AI-Batt (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models) [SWR 21-36]

Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models (AI-Batt) AI-Batt is a MATLAB code base for developing lifetime models for batteries from accelerated aging data. The code base provides many functions for processing, visualizing, and modeling battery aging data, making the data processing, exploration, and modeling workflow substantially faster. These tools are tailored for working with battery aging data sets, which usually consist of many separate time-series for each cell, with many test conditions and possible replicates at each condition, which makes it difficult to simply process or visualize the data set. Complex modeling tasks, such as cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification have been implemented to enable thorough statistical investigation of model predictions. Additionally, several machine-learning algorithms are implemented to autonomously identify suitable models via symbolic regression. Data processing functions automatically cast data from the struct data type, which is commonly used to store experimental data, but is not an acceptable input for most algorithms, to the table data type, which can be easily used as input to any optimization algorithm. Also, the data can be separated into time-invariant and time-variant data tables, which is helpful for exploring the data set as well as developing separate models for time-variant and time-invariant aging mechanisms. For example, in aging tests with constant temperature, temperature is a time-invariant experimental condition. Visualization tools enable plotting of data, model fits, and model simulations possible with single-line function calls, empowering data exploration of complex data sets with both time-varying and time-invariant trends. Plots can be automatically generated for the whole data set, or separated by data group (groups of test replicates) or individual data series. Data points or data series can be automatically colored by the value of a variable with a variety of color maps, and model predictions can also be colored by the value of a fit statistic. Comparisons between data sets and the predictions/simulations of different models on the same data set can be easily plotted as well. Distributions of parameter values from bootstrap resampling can be plotted to visualize the reliability of parameter estimation, or determine any correlations between parameters. Modeling tools handle the complex task of creating and parsing symbolic equations for modeling battery lifetime. Equations are parsed to grab relevant data variables, parameter values, or specified sub-models for input into optimization, evaluation, or simulation functions. Models can be optimized locally (one set of parameters for each data series), bi-level (some parameters shared across the data set), or globally (single set of parameters for all data). Functions implementing symbolic regression algorithms help users to discover effective model equations, even in poorly sampled, high-dimensional data.

Smith, Kandler [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NR

Solid neon as a noise-resilient host for electron qubits above 100 mK

Solid neon can be used as a solid host for single-electron qubits. At temperatures of around 10 mK, electron-on-solid-neon charge qubits exhibit long coherence times and high operation fidelities. However, a systematic characterization of the noise features of such systems is needed for the development of scalable quantum information architectures. Here, in this work, we show that solid neon can be used as a noise-resilient host for electron qubits above 100 mK. We examine the resilience of solid neon against charge and thermal noise when electron-on-solid-neon charge qubits are operated away from the charge-insensitive sweet spot and at elevated temperatures. We show that the extracted high-frequency charge noise density of electron-on-solid-neon qubits, projected as voltage fluctuations on nearby electrodes, is between 10 −4 μV 2 Hz −1 and 10 −6 μV 2 Hz −1 at 0.01 MHz to 1 MHz, which is comparable to common semiconductor hosts. We also show that the electron-on-solid-neon charge qubits operating at frequencies of around 5 GHz can maintain echo coherence times of over 1 μs at temperatures up to 400 mK.

42 ENGINEERING

The Shape Effect: Influence of 1D and 2D Boron Nitride Nanostructures on the Radiation Shielding, Thermal, and Damping Properties of High-Temperature Epoxy Composites

In space exploration, lightweight multifunctional materials capable of shielding neutron radiation, dissipating heat, and providing damping are essential. Polymer composites reinforced with boron nitride (BN) nanomaterials—specifically one-dimensional boron nitride nanotubes (BNNTs) and two-dimensional boron nitride nanoplatelets (BNNPs)—offer promising solutions. This study investigates how BN nanomaterial morphology influences the performance of high-temperature (HT) epoxy composites. We developed ultralightweight, three-dimensional BN foams comprising 1D BNNTs, 2D BNNPs, and hybrid 1D BNNT/2D BNNP structures via freeze-drying, then infiltrated them with HT epoxy to form dense composites. The BNNT foam exhibited the highest neutron radiation shielding, with a mass absorption coefficient of 26.64 cm2 g −1 , outperforming the hybrid foam (18.18 cm 2 g −1 ) and the BNNP foam (11.12 cm 2 g −1 ). A similar trend was observed in the HT epoxy composites; incorporating these foams at least doubled the mass absorption coefficient compared to the neat polymer. In terms of thermal conductivity, the BNNT/BNNP foam-epoxy composite achieved the highest value of 0.34 W m −1 K −1 , a 2.13-fold increase over neat HT epoxy. The BNNT/BNNP foam-epoxy composites also improved by 1.88 and 1.75 times, respectively. Mechanical testing revealed that BNNP foams withstood the highest loads during nanoindentation (3.53 kN), followed by BNNT/BNNP foams (1.93 kN) and BNNT foams (1.56 kN). All BN foam-epoxy composites exhibited enhanced damping properties, with tan δ increasing by at least 30 % compared to neat HT epoxy. These findings elucidate the impact of BN nanomaterial morphology on the multifunctional performance of HT epoxy composites, offering insights for developing high-performance, tailorable materials for demanding environments.

Kazue Orikasa

A method for battery activation

A technique to activate nickel cadmium batteries is described. The method shortened the time required for activation, eliminated the temperature rise in the batteries, and produced a voltage on the discharge that was better than when the C/20 was run for 48 hours during tests. Various methods of activation are described and evaluated. Results of alternate conditioning charge schemes are presented along with voltage/temperature characteristics for multiple level nickel cadmium battery chargers.

Halpert, G.

Time-History Statistics of Soot Formation in A Model Gas Turbine Combustor

Soot formation is a complex dynamic and intermittent process determined by properties of the fuel, combustor design, and combustor operation. Although the major steps in soot formation (i.e., formation of precursors, inception, growth and evolution) are similar for a variety of carbonaceous fuels, applications, and operating conditions, it remains unclear when the temporal transition between these steps occurs. An engineering prediction tool coupled with computational fluid physics (CFD), therefore needs to accurately model all these complex steps. To develop such a model, we propose the time-history concept for understanding the time dependency of soot formation as a function of local properties (i.e., temperature, velocity, local fuel air ratio, etc.). We continue our previous work with modeling the DLR aero-combustor [1] with our updated in-house CFD code, Open National Combustion Code (OpenNCC), that now includes a Multiple Time-Scale Flamelet Progress Variable approach and a the semi-empirical two-equation soot model. We injected massless tracer particles upstream of the injector region of the combustor to collect time-history statistics of the solution variables. The correlations between the collected statistics with respect to the experimental soot volume fraction data showed that time-history effect of certain flow variables, including turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), and multiple species is indeed important for soot formation. We then conducted a time-history based correlation analysis to determine the key species and the concentration ranges critical for soot formation (C6H5-based nucleation, acetylene-based surface growth, and oxidation with OH and O2). Based on the time-history correlation coefficient (THCC) analysis, we propose possible modifications to improve the current two-equation model.

LES

Method and apparatus for providing thermal wear leveling

Exemplary embodiments provide thermal wear spreading among a plurality of thermal die regions in an integrated circuit or among dies by using die region wear-out data that represents a cumulative amount of time each of a number of thermal die regions in one or more dies has spent at a particular temperature level. In one example, die region wear-out data is stored in persistent memory and is accrued over a life of each respective thermal region so that a long term monitoring of temperature levels in the various die regions is used to spread thermal wear among the thermal die regions. In one example, spreading thermal wear is done by controlling task execution such as thread execution among one or more processing cores, dies and/or data access operations for a memory.

Roberts, David A.

Battery Definition for the Mars Environmental Survey Mission (MESUR) Pathfinder

Silver-zinc (Ag-Zn) battery technology has been baselined as the energy storage system for the MESUR mission. The mission profile will require the operation of this battery in a manner not usually seen for this technology. In particular, the combination of storage time followed by multiple cycles as a function of fluctuating temperatures and charge/discharge rates, and limited available time for charging has not been previously demonstrated.

Ag-Zn

A Quantitative Phase Analysis by Neutron Diffraction of Conventional and Advanced Aluminum Alloys Thermally Conditioned for Elevated-Temperature Applications

As the issue of climate change becomes more prevalent, engineers have focused on developing lightweight Al alloys capable of increasing the power density of powertrains. The characterization of these alloys has been focused on mechanical properties and less on the fundamental response of microstructures to achieve these properties. Therefore, this study assesses the quality of the microstructure of two high-temperature Al alloys (A356 + 3.5RE and Al-8Ce-10Mg), comparing them to T6 A356. These alloys underwent thermal conditioning at 250 and 300 °C for 200 h. Time-of-flight neutron diffraction experiments were performed before and after conditioning. The phase evolution was quantified using Rietveld refinement. It was found that the Si phase grows significantly (13–24%) in T6 A356, A356 + 3.5RE, and T6 A356 + 3.5RE alloys, which is typically correlated with a reduction in mechanical properties. Subjecting the A356 3.5RE alloy to a T6 heat treatment stabilizes the orthorhombic Al4Ce3Si6 and monoclinic β-Al5FeSi phases, making them resistant to thermal conditioning. These two phases are known for enhancing mechanical properties. Additionally, the T6 treatment reduced the vol.% of the cubic Al20CeTi2 and hexagonal ᴨ-Al9FeSi3Mg5 phases by 13% and 23%, respectively. These phases have detrimental mechanical properties. The Al-8Ce-10Mg alloy cubic β-Al3Mg2 phase showed significant growth (82–101%) in response to conditioning, while the orthorhombic Al11Ce3 phase remained stable. The growth of the beta phase is known to decrease the mechanical properties of this alloy. These efforts give valuable insight into how these alloys will perform and evolve in demanding high-temperature environments.

Chemistry

Numerical Modeling of the Transient Chilldown Process of a Cryogenic Propellant Transfer Line

Before cryogenic fuel depots can be fully realized, efficient methods with which to chill down the spacecraft transfer line and receiver tank are required. This paper presents numerical modeling of the chilldown of a liquid hydrogen tank-to-tank propellant transfer line using the Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP). To compare with data from recently concluded turbulent LH2 chill down experiments, seven different cases were run across a range of inlet liquid temperatures and mass flow rates. Both trickle and pulse chill down methods were simulated. The GFSSP model qualitatively matches external skin mounted temperature readings, but large differences are shown between measured and predicted internal stream temperatures. Discrepancies are attributed to the simplified model correlation used to compute two-phase flow boiling heat transfer. Flow visualization from testing shows that the initial bottoming out of skin mounted sensors corresponds to annular flow, but that considerable time is required for the stream sensor to achieve steady state as the system moves through annular, churn, and bubbly flow. The GFSSP model does adequately well in tracking trends in the data but further work is needed to refine the two-phase flow modeling to better match observed test data.

Temperature Sensors

Mathematical Storage-Battery Models

Empirical formula represents performance of electrical storage batteries. Formula covers many battery types and includes numerous coefficients adjusted to fit peculiarities of each type. Battery and load parameters taken into account include power density in battery, discharge time, and electrolyte temperature. Applications include electric-vehicle "fuel" gages and powerline load leveling.

Chapman, C. P.

Radiolytically reworked Archean organic matter in a habitable deep ancient high-temperature brine

Abstract Investigations of abiotic and biotic contributions to dissolved organic carbon (DOC) are required to constrain microbial habitability in continental subsurface fluids. Here we investigate a large (101–283 mg C/L) DOC pool in an ancient (>1Ga), high temperature (45–55 °C), low biomass (10 2 −10 4 cells/mL), and deep (3.2 km) brine from an uranium-enriched South African gold mine. Excitation-emission matrices (EEMs), negative electrospray ionization (–ESI) 21 tesla Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS), and amino acid analyses suggest the brine DOC is primarily radiolytically oxidized kerogen-rich shales or reefs, methane and ethane, with trace amounts of C 3 –C 6 hydrocarbons and organic sulfides. δ 2 H and δ 13 C of C 1 –C 3 hydrocarbons are consistent with abiotic origins. These findings suggest water-rock processes control redox and C cycling, helping support a meagre, slow biosphere over geologic time. A radiolytic-driven, habitable brine may signal similar settings are good targets in the search for life beyond Earth.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Performance of the Satellite Test Assistant Robot in JPL's Space Simulation Facility

An innovative new telerobotic inspection system called STAR (the Satellite Test Assistant Robot) has been developed to assist engineers as they test new spacecraft designs in simulated space environments. STAR operates inside the ultra-cold, high-vacuum, test chambers and provides engineers seated at a remote Operator Control Station (OCS) with high resolution video and infrared (IR) images of the flight articles under test. STAR was successfully proof tested in JPL's 25-ft (7.6-m) Space Simulation Chamber where temperatures ranged from +85 C to -190 C and vacuum levels reached 5.1 x 10 -6 torr. STAR's IR Camera was used to thermally map the entire interior of the chamber for the first time. STAR also made several unexpected and important discoveries about the thermal processes occurring within the chamber. Using a calibrated test fixture arrayed with ten sample spacecraft materials, the IR camera was shown to produce highly accurate surface temperature data. This paper outlines STAR's design and reports on significant results from the thermal vacuum chamber test.

Douglas McAffee

The Evolution of the Moon and the Terrestrial Planets

The thermal evolutions of the Moon, Mars, Venus, and Mercury are calculated theoretically starting from cosmochemical condensation models. An assortment of geological, geochemical, and geophysical data are used to constrain both the present-day temperatures and the thermal histories of the planets' interiors. Such data imply that the planets were heated during or shortly after formation and that all the terrestrial planets started their differentiations early in their history. Initial temperatures and core formation play the most important roles in the early differentiation. The size of the planet is the primary factor in determining its present-day thermal state. The Moon, smallest in size, is characterized as a differentiated body with a crust, a thick solid mantle, and an interior region which may be partially molten. It is presently cooling rapidly and is relatively inactive tectonically. Mercury, which probably has a large core, may have a 500-km-thick solid lithosphere and a partially molten core, if it is assumed that some heat sources exist in the core. If this is not the case, the planet's interior temperatures are everywhere below the melting curve for iron. The thermal evolution is dominated by the core separation and the high conductivity of iron that makes up the bulk of Mercury. Mars, intermediate in size, is assumed to have differentiated an Fe-FeS core. While the formation of an early crust is evident, large-scale melting and differentiation of the mantle silicates has occurred at least up until 1 b.y. ago. Present-day temperature profiles indicate moderate tectonic activity at the present time. Venus is characterized as a planet not unlike the Earth in many respects. Core formation has occurred probably during the first billion years after the formation. The present-day temperatures indicate a partially molten upper mantle overlain by a 100-km-thick lithosphere and a molten Fe-Ni core. We can expect that today Venus may have tectonic processes similar to the Earth's.

M Nafi Toksöz

Flame stabilization in DME spray flames under engine-relevant conditions characterized by OH* chemiluminescence and formaldehyde laser-induced fluorescence

The transient and quasi-steady flame structures of Dimethyl Ether (DME) fuel sprays, produced by a single-hole injector (Spray D), were investigated using Planar Laser-Induced Fluorescence (PLIF) and chemiluminescence imaging in a constant-volume chamber under Engine Combustion Network (ECN) Spray A conditions (900 K ambient temperature, 60 bar ambient pressure, 1500 bar injection pressure, and 22.8 kg/m 3 ambient density). Low-temperature chemical reaction zones were visualized using formaldehyde (CH 2 O) PLIF with 355 nm excitation, while high-temperature flame regions were captured via chemiluminescence imaging of excited-state hydroxyl radicals (OH*). Both transient and quasi-steady flame structures clearly show the transition from CH 2 O to OH*, highlighting the progression from low- to high-temperature combustion, while the position of the flame is displaced for DME compared to reference hydrocarbon n-dodecane. Homogeneous reactor calculations with detailed chemistry and using adiabatic mixing for initial temperature show that CH 2 O peaks are significantly higher for DME at the same equivalence ratio, with a higher heat-release during the cool-flame regime with respect to the fuel heating value. Thus, the cool-flame dynamic as a precursor to high-temperature combustion and flame stabilization exhibit distinct behavior for DME relative to conventional hydrocarbons, and these phenomena are effectively resolved through the soot-free nature of DME and the high-speed, time-resolved diagnostics.

CH2O laser-induced fluorescence