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NASA NTRS2017

Sensitivity Analysis of Multidisciplinary Rotorcraft Simulations

A multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis of rotorcraft simulations involving tightly coupled high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics and comprehensive analysis solvers is presented and evaluated. An unstructured sensitivity-enabled Navier-Stokes solver, FUN3D, and a nonlinear flexible multibody dynamics solver, DYMORE, are coupled to predict the aerodynamic loads and structural responses of helicopter rotor blades. A discretely-consistent adjoint-based sensitivity analysis available in FUN3D provides sensitivities arising from unsteady turbulent flows and unstructured dynamic overset meshes, while a complex-variable approach is used to compute DYMORE structural sensitivities with respect to aerodynamic loads. The multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis is conducted through integrating the sensitivity components from each discipline of the coupled system. Numerical results verify accuracy of the FUN3D/DYMORE system by conducting simulations for a benchmark rotorcraft test model and comparing solutions with established analyses and experimental data. Complex-variable implementation of sensitivity analysis of DYMORE and the coupled FUN3D/DYMORE system is verified by comparing with real-valued analysis and sensitivities. Correctness of adjoint formulations for FUN3D/DYMORE interfaces is verified by comparing adjoint-based and complex-variable sensitivities. Finally, sensitivities of the lift and drag functions obtained by complex-variable FUN3D/DYMORE simulations are compared with sensitivities computed by the multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis, which couples adjoint-based flow and grid sensitivities of FUN3D and FUN3D/DYMORE interfaces with complex-variable sensitivities of DYMORE structural responses.

Wang, Li↗

DOE OSTI2021

Uniformly Ordered Binary Decision Algorithm for Benchmark Experiment Correlations in Whisper Validation

When performing a validation exercise for determining the upper subcritical limit of a nuclear criticality safety application, an analyst should select and perform a statistical analysis on a population of benchmark experiments that are neutronically similar to the application. The size of this population should be sufficiently large such that the statistical analysis has a high degree of confidence that the bias plus bias uncertainty (calculational margin) has been accurately quantified. A complication arises because many benchmark experiments share common components, leading to correlations in their measured effective multiplication factors. Correlations between benchmark experiments within the population reduces its predictive power. This motivates the need for methods that consider benchmark experiment correlations and ensure adequate statistical significance of results. The Whisper code is a statistical analysis pack- age that incorporates nuclear data sensitivity coefficients from MCNP to assess benchmark experiment similarity and then performs an extreme-value analysis to estimate the bias plus bias uncertainty. The original methodology in Whisper does not consider the effect of benchmark experiment correlations when making this estimation, and this summary proposes the uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm to address this shortcoming. The original methodology in Whisper computes similarity coefficients ck for an application compared to all benchmark experiments in its library and develops weighting factors for a selected population proportional to the ck values. The methodology can be interpreted as statistically emulating a validation exercise for a particular application where the weighting factors may be viewed as the likelihood that an analyst would include a particular benchmark experiment within the population. The effective sample size of the population is the expected or mean number of benchmark experiments in the population. The uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm identifies clusters of correlated benchmark experiments within the population and then computes adjusted weighting factors based on the magnitude of the correlation coefficients within the cluster to compute a reduced effective sample size accounting for the lower information content because of correlations. Benchmark experiments within the cluster are ordered randomly with equal probability and probabilistic decisions are made as to whether a benchmark. experiment within the cluster should treated as redundant with a previous one; if two redundant benchmark experiments are included, then the conservative worst case bias plus bias uncertainty is used and the pair is counted as a single benchmark experiment in the population. Results are provided for HEU solutions in a research version of the Whisper software using benchmark experiment correlations provided by DICE, the Database for the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP). These show that there can be a significant increase in the bias plus bias uncertainty because the effective sample size is reduced, and therefore the algorithm, needing to meet sample size requirements, expands the benchmark experiment population by accepting less similar benchmark experiments that would have otherwise not been included.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1981

An assessment of the industrial cogeneration market for parabolic dish systems

The value analysis technique used is straightforward. Maximum allowable life-cycle system cost for the cogeneration system is determined as the sum of the present value of fuels displaced plus the present value of revenues from exported power. Each conventional fuel displaced is described by a unit cost in the first year, a uniform annual consumption rate, and a uniform annual escalation rate for unit cost. Exported energy flows are treated the same as displaced energy.

Doane, J. W.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sustainable Manufacturing and the Circular Economy

The term "zero waste" can be somewhat misleading, as it implies an idealization of a concept that may never be achieved in real-world practice. According to Waste360 , "many in the solid waste industry think zero waste is an impossible goal. (Zero-waste advocates) believe just the opposite that a zero-waste approach makes the most economical and environmental sense...Most everyone agrees, however, that actually reaching the point where absolutely no waste is created is unlikely" (Leroux 2001). "Zero waste is a goal. It's completely unachievable...It's not about perfection; it's about making better choices" (Kellogg 2018). The immediate value of moving towards a zero-waste society is not immediately clear, but since the world we live in is finite in its resources, at what point does that value become evident? How do we broaden our value analysis to better incorporate the longer-term view? What are strategies that we can easily incorporate now that will significantly increase that longer term value and mitigate the impacts for future generations? This report considers these questions through a series of case studies from different parts of the U.S. manufacturing sector.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Revised and New Proper Motions for Confirmed and Candidate Milky Way Dwarf Galaxies

A new derivation of systemic proper motions of Milky Way satellites is presented and applied to 59 confirmed or candidate dwarf galaxy satellites using Gaia Data Release 2. This constitutes all known Milky Way dwarf galaxies (and likely candidates) as of 2020 May, except for the Magellanic Clouds, the Canis Major and Hydra 1 stellar overdensities, and the tidally disrupting Bootes III and Sagittarius dwarf galaxies. We derive systemic proper motions for the first time for Indus 1, DES J0225+0304, Cetus 2, Pictor 2, and Leo T, but note that the latter three rely on photometry that is of poorer quality than that of the rest of the sample. We cannot resolve a signal for Bootes 4, Cetus 3, Indus 2, Pegasus 3, or Virgo 1. Our method is inspired by the maximum likelihood approach of Pace & Li and examines simultaneously the spatial, color–magnitude, and proper motion distribution of sources. Systemic proper motions are derived without the need to identify confirmed radial velocity members, although the proper motions of these stars, where available, are incorporated into the analysis through a prior on the model. The associated uncertainties on the systemic proper motions are on average a factor of ∼1.4 smaller than existing literature values. Analysis of the implied membership distribution of the satellites suggests that we accurately identify member stars with a contamination rate lower than 1 in 20.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1982

Financial assessment of the Space Operations Center as a Private Business Venture

The possibility of private financing and operation of the Space Operations Center (SOC) is considered as an alternative to SOC development by the government. A hypothetical revenue model for SOC services is constructed and is compared with NASA estimates of SOC development and operating costs. A present value analysis based on a 1985 to 2000 investment horizon shows a potential for substantial profit in a private SOC venture, although the possibility of large losses is not discounted. Present value estimates range from $8.6 billion down to a low minus $3.3 billion.

Simon, M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Linear, multivariable robust control with a mu perspective

The structured singular value is a linear algebra tool developed to study a particular class of matrix perturbation problems arising in robust feedback control of multivariable systems. These perturbations are called linear fractional, and are a natural way to model many types of uncertainty in linear systems, including state-space parameter uncertainty, multiplicative and additive unmodeled dynamics uncertainty, and coprime factor and gap metric uncertainty. The structured singular value theory provides a natural extension of classical SISO robustness measures and concepts to MIMO systems. The structured singular value analysis, coupled with approximate synthesis methods, make it possible to study the tradeoff between performance and uncertainty that occurs in all feedback systems. In MIMO systems, the complexity of the spatial interactions in the loop gains make it difficult to heuristically quantify the tradeoffs that must occur. This paper examines the role played by the structured singular value (and its computable bounds) in answering these questions, as well as its role in the general robust, multivariable control analysis and design problem.

Packard, Andy↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Role of Fuels in Transforming Energy End-Use in Buildings and Industrial Processes

This book examines what role fuels have in the transformation of end-use in buildings and industrial processes. Energy efficient technologies are necessary to lower the carbon footprint for a transition towards clean energy in a sustainable manner. Efficient utilization of primary energy resources including renewables to support the current and future energy needs while targeting grid resiliency, energy and environmental security, at an affordable cost is of significant value. Analysis of configurations consisting of heat pumps, fuel driven thermal providers and power systems is presented. Sensitivity of electrical grid's carbon intensity towards carbon footprint in comparison with fuel driven technologies is necessary to recognize the true value proposition of currently available energy solutions for different end consumers. Similarly, the role of low carbon, zero carbon, and carbon negative fuels such as power to gas, power to liquid, hydrogen, biogas, etc. in conjunction with polygeneration technologies are discussed. Transformation of the primary energy resources from conventional fossil fuels to renewable fuels or electricity will have a significant impact on the overall carbon footprint of various end use sectors, including buildings. Hence, this book also examines two different scenarios focused on sensitivity of the pace of decarbonization of electrical grid and fuel supply on operational energy related carbon emissions.

Cheekatamarla, Praveen↗

NASA NTRS1989

Linear digital imaging system fidelity analysis

The combined effects of imaging gathering, sampling and reconstruction are analyzed in terms of image fidelity. The analysis is based upon a standard end-to-end linear system model which is sufficiently general so that the results apply to most line-scan and sensor-array imaging systems. Shift-variant sampling effects are accounted for with an expected value analysis based upon the use of a fixed deterministic input scene which is randomly shifted (mathematically) relative to the sampling grid. This random sample-scene phase approach has been used successfully by the author and associates in several previous related papers.

Park, Stephen K.↗

NASA NTRS2006

TOF-SIMS Analysis of Crater Residues from Wild 2 Cometary on Stardust Aluminum Foil

Impact residues of cometary particles on aluminum foils from the Stardust mission were investigated with TOF-SIMS for their elemental and organic composition. The residual matter from comet 81P/Wild 2 shows a wide compositional range, from nearly monomineralic grains to polymict aggregates. Despite the comparably small analyzed sample volume, the average element composition of the investigated residues is similar to bulk CI chondritic values. Analysis of organic components in impact residues is complicated, due to fragmentation and alteration of the compounds during the impact process and by the presence of contaminants on the aluminum foils. Nevertheless, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) that are unambiguously associated with the impact residues were observed, and thus are most likely of cometary origin.

Leutner, Jan↗

NASA NTRS1991

Robustness analysis of multirate and periodically time varying systems

A new method for analyzing the stability and robustness of multirate and periodically time varying systems is presented. It is shown that a multirate or periodically time varying system can be transformed into an equivalent time invariant system. For a SISO system, traditional gain and phase margins can be found by direct application of the Nyquist criterion to this equivalent time invariant system. For a MIMO system, structured and unstructured singular values can be used to determine the system's robustness. The limitations and implications of utilizing this equivalent time invariant system for calculating gain and phase margins, and for estimating robustness via singular value analysis are discussed.

Berg, Martin C.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Systems and methods for circuit lifetime evaluation

Systems and methods for estimating the lifetime of an electrical system in accordance with embodiments of the invention are disclosed. One embodiment of the invention includes iteratively performing Worst Case Analysis (WCA) on a system design with respect to different system lifetimes using a computer to determine the lifetime at which the worst case performance of the system indicates the system will pass with zero margin or fail within a predetermined margin for error given the environment experienced by the system during its lifetime. In addition, performing WCA on a system with respect to a specific system lifetime includes identifying subcircuits within the system, performing Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) with respect to each subcircuit to determine whether the subcircuit fails EVA for the specific system lifetime, when the subcircuit passes EVA, determining that the subcircuit does not fail WCA for the specified system lifetime, when a subcircuit fails EVA performing at least one additional WCA process that provides a tighter bound on the WCA than EVA to determine whether the subcircuit fails WCA for the specified system lifetime, determining that the system passes WCA with respect to the specific system lifetime when all subcircuits pass WCA, and determining that the system fails WCA when at least one subcircuit fails WCA.

Heaps, Timothy L.↗

NASA NTRS1984

The unique planetary nebula NGC 2818

The planetary nebula NGC 2818, or PK 261 + 8 deg 1, is of special interest due to its apparent association with a Population I open cluster (of the same designation). The results of new observations of the nebula are presented, including interference-filter imagery, photoelectric photometry, and ground-based and IUE spectroscopy. Analysis of its composition based on new IUE and ground-based spectroscopy and model calculations of the very similar planetary nebula NGC 2440 suggests that NGC 2818 is a prototype of the He-rich and N-rich Type I group. Compared to the composition of H II regions in the solar neighborhood, He is 60 percent overabundant, C is 0.3 dex lower, N is 1.0 dex higher, and O, Ne, Si, Cl, and Ar are essentially at comparable values. Analysis of kinematical and morphological data suggests that the nebula is probably associated with the star cluster (revised distance = 3.5 kpc). If so, then it is of exceptional size (radius approximately 1.1 pc), mass (greater than or equal to 0.6 solar mass), expansion velocity (52 + or - 3 km/s), and age (possibly as old as 22,000 yr). Some implications of the results regarding the masses of planetary-nebula progenitors, the nucleosynthesis processes in stars of intermediate mass, and the formation of planetary nebulae are also discussed.

Dufour, R. J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Total metal, carbon, anion, iron speciation, and sulfide concentrations; Slate River, East River, and Trail Creek surface water and floodplains, Crested Butte, CO; May 2023–August 2023

This data package comprises analytical results and metadata from stream and groundwater samples collected from the Slate River, East River, Trail Creek, and their respective floodplains. This dataset contains five files: (1) a samples file (2023_SFA_Field_samples.csv) that contains site information; (2) a chemical analysis data file (2023_FieldWaterSampleData_IC__ICPOES__ICPMS__TOC__Fe__S_chem_data.csv) that contains sample analysis values; (3) a file-level metadata file (flmd.csv) that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; (4) a data dictionary file (dd.csv) that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with definitions, units, and data types; and (5) a methods file (methods.csv) that contains ID, type, description, instrument, and lab information for each method.The samples’ anion concentrations were measured using ion chromatography (IC), total metal concentrations using inductively coupled plasma emission spectrometry (ICP-OES) and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS), non-purgeable organic carbon using total organic carbon (TOC) analysis, dissolved sulfide concentration using methylene blue spectrophotometry, and iron speciation using the ferrozine assay. To support bulk chemical analyses and colloid characterization, samples were collected from multiple depths ranging from the surface to 3.5 meters below ground.Update on 2024-10-18: Updates were made to the 2023_FieldWaterSampleData_IC__ICPOES__ICPMS__TOC__Fe__S_chem_data.csv and dd.csv files to correct units (ppb instead of ppm).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2009

Going South: Analysis of an Historic Project Engineering Failure

NASA's successful conduct of the Apollo Program greatly enhanced the prestige of the United States and remains broadly accepted as America's gift to all Mankind. NASA's accomplishments continue to amaze the world. With the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) Americans once again tasked NASA to carry out a project that is expected to provide inspiration and economic stimulus to the United States and to the world. In preparation NASA has thoroughly examined space program precedents. There is, however, another precedent which has not been examined in this context but whose scope and environment in many ways parallel the VSE. This project was initiated by a team that had, ten years before, successfully completed an effort that, at a cost of $173 billion (in 2008 dollars), had pushed the envelope of technology, brought economic growth, established their country as the world leader in engineering, and been broadly accepted as that country's gift to all Mankind. The new project was again inspired by popular desire to enhance national prestige and make yet another major contribution to Humanity. This effort was predicted to require eight years and $156 billion (2008 dollars). However, after nine years and expenditures of 96% beyond the baseline, the project collapsed amid bankruptcy, political scandal, and criminal prosecution. This paper applies current project management metrics, such as earned value analysis, to review the strategic decisions in this historic failure and describe its ultimate collapse. Key mistakes are identified, and lessons are drawn which may prove useful in guiding the VSE.

Scott, John H.↗

DOE OSTI2020

One Electron Multiple Proton Transfer in Model Organic Donor–Acceptor Systems: Implications for High-Frequency EPR

EPR spectroscopy is an important spectroscopic method for identification and characterization of radical species involved in many biological reactions. The tyrosyl radical is one of the most studied amino acid radical intermediates in biology. Often in conjunction with histidine residues, it is involved in many fundamental biological electron and proton transfer processes, such as in the water oxidation in photosystem II. As biological processes are typically extremely complicated and hard to control, molecular bio-mimetic model complexes are often used to clarify the mechanisms of the biological reactions. In this work, we present theoretical calculations to investigate the sensitivity of magnetic resonance parameters to proton-coupled electron transfer events, as well as conformational substates of the molecular constructs which mimic the tyrosine-histidine (Tyr-His) pairs found in a large variety of proteins. Upon oxidation of the phenol, the Tyr analog, these complexes can perform not only one-electron one-proton transfer (EPT), but also one-electron two-proton transfers (E2PT). It is shown that in aprotic environment the g X -components of the electronicg-tensor are extremely sensitive to the first proton transfer from the phenoxyl oxygen to the imidazole nitrogen (EPT product), leading to a significant increase of the g X -value of up to 0.003, but are not sensitive to the second proton transfer (E2PT). In the latter case, the change of the g X -value is much smaller (ca. 0.0001), which is too small to be distinguished even by high-frequency EPR. The 14 N hyperfine values are also too similar to allow differentiation between the different protonation states in EPT and E2PT. The magnetic resonance parameters were also calculated as a function of the rotation angles around single bonds. It was demonstrated that rotation of the phenoxyl group results in large positive changes (> 0.001) in the g X -values. Analysis of the data reveals that the main source of these changes is related to the strength of the H-bond between phenoxyl oxygen and the proton(s) on N 1 and N 2 positions of the imidazole.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Extremal Dependence to Better Characterize the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Abstract In late June, 2021, a devastating heatwave affected the US Pacific Northwest and western Canada, breaking numerous all-time temperature records by large margins and directly causing hundreds of fatalities. The observed 2021 daily maximum temperature across much of the U.S. Pacific Northwest exceeded upper bound estimates obtained from single-station temperature records even after accounting for anthropogenic climate change, meaning that the event could not have been predicted under standard univariate extreme value analysis assumptions. In this work, we utilize a flexible spatial extremes model that considers all stations across the Pacific Northwest domain and accounts for the fact that many stations simultaneously experience extreme temperatures. Our analysis incorporates the effects of anthropogenic forcing and natural climate variability in order to better characterize time-varying changes in the distribution of daily temperature extremes. We show that greenhouse gas forcing, drought conditions and large-scale atmospheric modes of variability all have significant impact on summertime maximum temperatures in this region. Our model represents a significant improvement over corresponding single-station analysis, and our posterior medians of the upper bounds are able to anticipate more than 96% of the observed 2021 high station temperatures after properly accounting for extremal dependence. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

Zhang, Likun (ORCID:0000000154584556)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Study of synergistic effects and compositional dependence of hydrogen evolution reaction on MoxNiy alloy thin films in alkaline media

In this paper hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) on the molybdenum-nickel thin films has been studied. The Mo x Ni y thin films were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). A change in the crystal structure of the samples prepared at different temperatures was observed. The structure of the samples prepared at 25 °C are bcc or amorphous. The structure of alloys sputtered at 800 °C changed to fcc. Tafel plots were constructed for each Mo x Ni y alloy sample. The mechanism of HER was determined from Tafel slope analysis. Values of charge transfer resistance were also determined by impedance spectroscopy. The compositional dependence of activity and the stability of Mo x Ni y thin films in 1 M NaOH were determined by cycling and chronoamperometry. Our results demonstrate that Mo x Ni y thin films prepared at 800 °C show significantly improved activity compared to pure Mo and Ni metals. On the other hand, Mo x Ni y thin films sputtered at 25°C do not show increased activity in comparison to pure Ni metal. Furthermore, this points to a synergistic effect between fcc Mo and fcc Ni in thin films sputtered at elevated temperatures. Mo 63 Ni 67 thin films alloy prepared at 800 °C shows the best values of catalytic activity for HER from all investigated compositions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗