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At least 541 records · Page 30

The Case for Deep Space Telecommunications Relay Stations

Each future mission to Jupiter and beyond must carry the traditional suite of telecommunications systems for command and control and for mission data transmission to earth. The telecommunications hardware includes the large antenna and the high-power transmitters that enable the communications link. Yet future spacecraft will be scaled down from the hallmark missions of Galileo and Cassini to Jupiter and Saturn, respectively. This implies that a higher percentage of the spacecraft weight and power must be dedicated to telecommunications system. The following analysis quantifies this impact to future missions and then explores the merits of an alternative approach using deep space relay stations for the link back to earth. It will be demonstrated that a telecommunications relay satellite would reduce S/C telecommunications weight and power sufficiently to add one to two more instruments.

Chandler, Charles W.↗

Modulation of Tropical Convection-Circulation Interaction by Aerosol Indirect Effects in Convective Self-Aggregation Simulations of a Gray Zone Global Model

Disentangling the response of tropical convective updrafts to enhanced aerosol concentrations has been challenging. Leading theories for explaining the influence of aerosol concentrations on tropical convection are based on the dynamical response of convection to changes in cloud microphysics, neglecting possible changes in the environment. In recent years, global convection-permitting models (GCPM) have been developed to circumvent problems arising from imposing artificial scale separation on physical processes associated with deep convection. Here, we use a global model in the convective gray zone that partially simulates deep convection to investigate how enhanced concentrations of aerosols that act as cloud condensate nuclei (CCN) impact tropical convection features by modulating the convection-circulation interaction. Results from a pair of idealized non-rotating radiative-convective equilibrium simulations show that the enhanced CCN concentration leads to weaker large-scale circulation, the closeness of deep convective systems to the moist cluster edges, and more mid-level cloud water at an equilibrium state in which convective self-aggregation occurred. Correspondingly, the enhanced CCN concentration modulates how the physical processes that support or oppose convective aggregation maintain the aggregated state at equilibrium. Overall, the enhanced CCN concentration facilitates the development of deep convection in a drier environment but reduces mean precipitation. Our results emphasize the importance of allowing atmospheric phenomena to evolve continuously across spatial and temporal scales in simulations when investigating the response of tropical convection to changes in cloud microphysics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Asteroids and Archaean crustal evolution: Tests of possible genetic links between major mantle/crust melting events and clustered extraterrestrial bombardments

Since the oldest intact terrestrial rocks of ca. 4.0 Ga and oldest zircon xenocrysts of ca. 4.3 Ga measured to date overlap with the lunar late heavy bombardment, the early Precambrian record requires close reexamination vis a vis the effects of megaimpacts. The identification of microtektite-bearing horizons containing spinals of chondritic chemistry and Ir anomalies in 3.5-3.4-Ga greenstone belts provides the first direct evidence for large-scale Archaean impacts. The Archaean crustal record contains evidence for several major greenstone-granite-forming episodes where deep upwelling and adiabatic fusion of the mantle was accompanied by contemporaneous crustal anatexis. Isotopic age studies suggest evidence for principal age clusters about 3.5, 3.0, and 2.7 (+/- 0.8) Ga, relics of a ca. 3.8-Ga event, and several less well defined episodes. These peak events were accompanied and followed by protracted thermal fluctuations in intracrustal high-grade metamorphic zones. Interpretations of these events in terms of internal dynamics of the Earth are difficult to reconcile with the thermal behavior of silicate rheologies in a continuously convecting mantle regime. A triggering of these episodes by mantle rebound response to intermittent extraterrestrial asteroid impacts is supported by (1) identification of major Archaean impacts from microtektite and distal ejecta horizons marked by Ir anomalies; (2) geochemical and experimental evidence for mantle upwelling, possibly from levels as deep as the transition zone; and (3) catastrophic adiabatic melting required to generate peridotitic komatites. Episodic differentiation/accretion growth of sial consequent on these events is capable of resolving the volume problem that arises from comparisons between modern continental crust and the estimated sial produced by continuous two-stage mantle melting processes. The volume problem is exacerbated by projected high accretion rates under Archaean geotherms. It is suggested that impact shock effects have been largely obscured by (1) outpouring of voluminous basic/ultrabasic lavas, inundating shock-deformed crust and extending beyond the perimeters of impact excavated basins; (2) gravity subsidence and downfaulting of terrestrial maria, accounting for the burial and anatexis of subgreenstone basement; and (3) extensive shearing and recrystallization at elevated temperatures of impact structure, breccias, and mineral deformation features beneath impact-excavated basins, relics of which may be retained in structural windows in high-grade metamorphic terranes.

Glikson, A. Y.↗

The Degradational History of Endeavour Crater, Mars

Endeavour crater (2.28 deg S, 354.77 deg E) is a Noachian-aged 22 km-diameter impact structure of complex morphology in Meridiani Planum. The degradation state of the crater has been studied using Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter and Opportunity rover data. Exposed rim segments rise approximately 10 m to approximately 100 m above the level of the embaying Burns Formation and the crater is 200-500 m deep with the southern interior wall exposing over approximately 300 m relief. Both pre-impact rocks (Matijevic Formation) and Endeavour impact ejecta (Shoemaker Formation) are present at Cape York, but only the Shoemaker crops out (up to approximately 140 m) along the rim segment from Murray Ridge to Cape Tribulation. Study of pristine complex craters Bopolu and Tooting, and morphometry of other martian complex craters, enables us to approximate Endeavour's pristine form. The original rim likely averaged 410 m (+/-)200 m in elevation and a 250-275 m section of ejecta ((+/-)50-60 m) would have composed a significant fraction of the rim height. The original crater depth was likely between 1.5 km and 2.2 km. Comparison between the predicted original and current form of Endeavour suggests approximately 100-200 m rim lowering that removed most ejecta in some locales (e.g., Cape York) while thick sections remain elsewhere (e.g., Cape Tribulation). Almost complete removal of ejecta at Cape York and minimal observable offset across fractures indicates current differences in rim relief are not solely due to original rim relief. Rim segments are embayed by approximately 100-200 m thickness of plains rocks outside the crater, but thicker deposits lie inside the crater. Ventifact textures confirm ongoing eolian erosion with the overall extent difficult to estimate. Analogy with degraded Noachian-aged craters south of Endeavour, however, suggests fluvial erosion dominated rim degradation in the Noachian and was likely followed by approximately 10s of meters modification by alternate processes. Such degradation is consistent with 1) the interpretation of a pediment on the rim flanks of Endeavour, 2) the formation of features such as Marathon Valley, 3) the nearly complete removal of ejecta at Cape York, 4) preservation of a thicker section of ejecta at Cape Tribulation and perhaps, 5) the origin of some gaps in the rim around the crater. A paucity of debris shed from the rim indicates most degradation occurred prior to embayment by the plains rocks.

Grant, J. A.↗

Sub-m s−1 upper limits from a deep HARPS-N radial-velocity search for planets orbiting HD 166620 and HD 144579

ABSTRACT Minimizing the impact of stellar variability in radial velocity (RV) measurements is a critical challenge in achieving the 10 cm s−1 precision needed to hunt for Earth twins. Since 2012, a dedicated programme has been underway with HARPS-N, to conduct a blind RV rocky planets search (RPS) around bright stars in the Northern hemisphere. Here we describe the results of a comprehensive search for planetary systems in two RPS targets, HD 166620 and HD 144579. Using wavelength-domain line-profile decorrelation vectors to mitigate the stellar activity and performing a deep search for planetary reflex motions using a trans-dimensional nested sampler, we found no significant planetary signals in the data sets of either of the stars. We validated the results via data-splitting and injection recovery tests. Additionally, we obtained the 95th percentile detection limits on the HARPS-N RVs. We found that the likelihood of finding a low-mass planet increases noticeably across a wide period range when the inherent stellar variability is corrected for using scalpelsU-vectors. We are able to detect planet signals with Msin i ≤ 1 M⊕ for orbital periods shorter than 10 d. We demonstrate that with our decorrelation technique, we are able to detect signals as low as 54 cm s−1, which brings us closer to the calibration limit of 50 cm s−1 demonstrated by HARPS-N. Therefore, we show that we can push down towards the RV precision required to find Earth analogues using high-precision radial velocity data with novel data-analysis techniques.

Anna John, A. (ORCID:0000000217156939)↗

Characterization of Surface Heterogeneity-Induced Convection Using Cluster Analysis

Land-atmosphere interactions and boundary layer processes often control the formation of shallow clouds and subsequently deep convective precipitation over the Southern Great Plains. In this study, we examine the impacts of large-scale advection on the cloud populations and land-atmospheric coupling observed during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign in 2016. In this work, we performed two Large Eddy Simulations (LES) using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for a day in which the transition from clear-sky to shallow precipitating clouds and isolated deep convection was observed. The control simulation reproduced the overall distribution of cloud populations by using realistic soil conditions with an interactive land model. In the sensitivity simulation where large-scale advection is removed, a strong relationship between the land and boundary layer is found. To study the timing, location, and intensity of convective initiation and the relationship of clouds with land surface properties, a cluster analysis of equivalent potential temperature is performed for the simulation without large-scale advection. That analysis shows that convective clouds first form over regions with higher surface sensible heat flux. Precipitation from those convective clouds likely triggers new updrafts nearby about two hours later through the lifting associated with cold pools. Furthermore, the cluster analysis also shows that in addition to the spatial pattern of soil moisture, land use and soil texture in western Oklahoma also influence the location of convective initiation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

One-Hundred-km-Scale Basins on Enceladus: Evidence for an Active Ice Shell

Stereo-derived topographic mapping of 50% of Enceladus reveals at least 6 large-scale, ovoid depressions (basins) 90-175 km across and 800-to-1500 m deep and uncorrelated with geologic boundaries. Their shape and scale are inconsistent with impact, geoid deflection, or with dynamically supported topography. Isostatic thinning of Enceladus ice shell associated with upwellings (and tidally-driven ice melting) can plausibly account for the basins. Thinning implies upwarping of the base of the shell of 10-20 km beneath the depressions, depending on total shell thickness; loss of near-surface porosity due to enhanced heat flow may also contribute to basin lows. Alternatively, the basins may overly cold, inactive, and hence denser ice, but thermal isostasy alone requires thermal expansion more consistent with clathrate hydrate than water ice. In contrast to the basins, the south polar depression (SPD) is larger (~350 wide) and shallower (~0.4-to-0.8 km deep) and correlates with the area of tectonic deformation and active resurfacing. The SPD also differs in that the floor is relatively flat (i.e., conforms roughly to the global triaxial shape, or geoid) with broad, gently sloping flanks. The relative flatness across the SPD suggests that it is in or near isostatic equilibrium, and underlain by denser material, supporting the polar sea hypothesis of Collins and Goodman. Near flatness is also predicted by a crustal spreading origin for the "tiger stripes (McKinnon and Barr 2007, Barr 2008); the extraordinary, high CIRS heat flows imply half-spreading rates in excess of 10 cm/yr, a very young surface age (~250,000 yr), and a rather thin lithosphere (hence modest thermal topography). Topographic rises in places along the outer margin of the SPD correlate with parallel ridges and deformation along the edge of the resurfaced terrain, consistent with a compressional, imbricate thrust origin for these ridges, driven by the spreading.

Schenk, Paul M.↗

Transport and chemistry of isoprene and its oxidation products in deep convective clouds

Deep convective clouds can transport trace gases from the planetary boundary layer into the upper troposphere where subsequent chemistry may impact aerosol particle formation and growth. In this modelling study, we investigate processes that affect isoprene and its oxidation products injected into the upper troposphere by an isolated deep convective cloud in the Amazon. We run a photochemical box model with coupled cloud microphysics along hundreds of individual air parcel trajectories sampled from a cloud-resolving model simulation of a convective event. The box model simulates gas-phase chemical reactions, gas scavenging by liquid and ice hydrometeors, and turbulent dilution inside a deep convective cloud. The results illustrate the potential importance of gas uptake to anvil ice in regulating the intensity of the isoprene oxidation and associated low volatility organic vapour concentrations in the outflow. Isoprene transport and fate also depends on the abundance of lightning-generated nitrogen oxide radicals (NO x = NO + NO 2 ). If gas uptake on ice is efficient and lightning activity is low, around 30% of the boundary layer isoprene will survive to the cloud outflow after approximately one hour of transport, while all the low volatile oxidation products will be scavenged by the cloud hydrometeors. If lightning NO x is abundant and gas uptake by ice is inefficient, then all isoprene will be oxidised during transport or in the immediate outflow region, while several low volatility isoprene oxidation products will have elevated concentrations in the cloud outflow. Reducing uncertainties associated with the uptake of vapours on ice hydrometeors, especially HO 2 and oxygenated organics, is essential to improve predictions of isoprene and its oxidation products in deep convective outflows and their potential contribution to new particle formation and growth.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Emergence of the continents

If early degassing of the Earth produced a global ocean several km deep overlying a global sialic crust, then late heavy bombardment of that crust by basin forming impacting bodies would have produced topography such that by 4 billion years ago dry continential landmasses would stand above sea level. From extrapolation of lunar crater statistics, at least 50% of an original global crust on the earth would have been converted into basins averaging 4 km deep after isostatic adjustment. These basins formed the sink into which such a global ocean would drain. If the ocean was initially 2 km deep, then approximately 50% of the early Earth would have stood above sea level when the late heavy bombardment came to a close.

Frey, H.↗

Effects of Carbonic Acid-Rock Interactions on CO2/Brine Multiphase Flow Properties in the Upper Minnelusa Sandstones

Summary Carbon dioxide (CO2) injection into a deep saline aquifer can dissolve into formation brine and generate carbonic acid. The resulting acid can drive fluid-rock geochemical reactions. The impact of these fluid-rock geochemical reactions on porosity, permeability, and multiphase flow responses is relevant to the determination of CO2 storage capacity of deep saline aquifers. In this research, carbonic acid flooding experiments were performed on core samples consisting of poorly sorted, quartz-rich sand with laminated bedding from a possible CO2 storage target in northwest Wyoming. Complementary pre- and post-injection porosity and permeability, thin-section, Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET) surface area, mercury intrusion capillary pressure (MICP), and time-domain nuclear magnetic resonance (TD-NMR) measurements were conducted. Overall, both core porosity and permeability increased after a 7-day carbonic acid injection, from 6.2 to 8.4% and 1.6 to 3.7 md, respectively. We attributed these changes to carbonate mineral dissolution, which was evidenced by the effluent brine geochemistry, pore-throat size distribution (PTSD), and BET surface area. To be more specific, within the more-permeable section of core samples containing larger pore size, the permeability increment is apparent due to dolomite mineral grains and cements dissolution. However, for the lower-permeability section corresponding to the smaller pore size, mineral precipitation possibly lessened dissolution effects, leading to insignificant petrophysical properties changes. Consequently, the observed heterogeneous carbonic acid-rock interactions resulted in alterations of CO2/brine relative permeability (i.e., the initial CO2 saturation decreased and the CO2 flow capacity was enhanced). This research provides a fundamental understanding regarding effects of fluid-rock reactions on changes in static and multiphase flow properties of eolian sandstones, which lays the foundation for more accurate prediction/simulation of CO2 injection into deep saline aquifers.

Engineering↗

Simultaneous impact and lunar craters

The existence of large terrestrial impact crater doublets and crater doublets that have been inferred to be impact craters on Mars suggests that simultaneous impact of two or more bodies can occur at nearly the same point on planetary surfaces. An experimental study of simultaneous impact of two projectiles near one another shows that doublet craters with ridges perpendicular to the bilateral axis of symmetry result when separation between impact points relative to individual crater diameter is large. When separation is progressively less, elliptical craters with central ridges and peaks, and circular craters with deep round bottoms are produced. These craters are similar in structure to many of the large lunar craters. Results suggest that the simultaneous impact of meteoroids near one another may be an important mechanism for the production of central peaks in large lunar craters.

Oberbeck, V. R.↗

Reversal of carbonate-silicate cation exchange in cold slabs in Earth’s lower mantle

The stable forms of carbon in Earth’s deep interior control storage and fluxes of carbon through the planet over geologic time, impacting the surface climate as well as carrying records of geologic processes in the form of diamond inclusions. However, current estimates of the distribution of carbon in Earth’s mantle are uncertain, due in part to limited understanding of the fate of carbonates through subduction, the main mechanism that transports carbon from Earth’s surface to its interior. Oxidized carbon carried by subduction has been found to reside in MgCO 3 throughout much of the mantle. Experiments in this study demonstrate that at deep mantle conditions MgCO 3 reacts with silicates to form CaCO 3 . In combination with previous work indicating that CaCO 3 is more stable than MgCO 3 under reducing conditions of Earth’s lowermost mantle, these observations allow us to predict that the signature of surface carbon reaching Earth’s lowermost mantle may include CaCO 3 .

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluating Modern GPU Interconnect: PCIe, NVLink, NV-SLI, NVSwitch and GPUDirect

High performance multi-GPU computing becomes an inevitable trend due to the ever-increasing demand on computation capability in emerging domains such as deep learning, big data and planet-scale simulations. However, the lack of deep understanding on how modern GPUs can be connected and the real impact of state-of-the-art interconnect technology on multi-GPU application performance become a hurdle. In this paper, we fill the gap by conducting a thorough evaluation on five latest types of modern GPU interconnects: PCIe, NVLink-V1, NVLink-V2, NVLink-SLI and NVSwitch, from six high-end servers and HPC platforms: NVIDIA P100-DGX-1, V100-DGX-1, DGX-2, OLCF’s SummitDev and Summit supercomputers, as well as an SLI-linked system with two NVIDIA Turing RTX-2080 GPUs. Based on the empirical evaluation, we have observed four new types of GPU communication network NUMA effects: three are triggered by NVLink’s topology, connectivity and routing, while one is caused by PCIe chipset design issue. These observations indicate that, for a multi-GPU application running in a multi-GPU node, choosing the right GPU combination can impose considerable impact on GPU communication efficiency, as well as an application’s overall performance. Our evaluation can be leveraged in building practical multi-GPU performance models, which are vital for GPU task allocation, scheduling and migration in a shared environment (e.g., AI cloud and HPC centers), as well as communication-oriented performance tuning.

Performance Evaluation, GPU, Interconnect, NUMA, P↗

A Wrapper to Use a Machine-Learning-Based Algorithm for Earthquake Monitoring

Seismology is one of the main sciences used to monitor volcanic activity worldwide. Fast, efficient, and accurate seismicity detectors are crucial to assess the activity level of a volcano in near–real time and to issue timely warnings. Traditional real–time seismic processing software uses phase onset pickers followed by a phase association algorithm to declare an event and estimate its location. The pickers typically do not identify whether the detected phase is a P or S arrival, which can have a negative impact on hypocentral location quality and complicates phase association. We implemented the deep–neural–network–based method PhaseNet to identify in real time P and S seismic waves on data from one– and three–component seismometers. We tuned the Earthworm binder_ew associator module to use the phase identification from PhaseNet to detect and locate the events, which we archive in a SeisComP3 database. We assessed the performance of the algorithm by comparing the results with existing catalogs built to monitor seismic and volcanic activity in Mayotte and the Lesser Antilles region. Our algorithm, which we refer to as PhaseWorm, showed promising results in both contexts and clearly outperformed the previous automatic method implemented in Mayotte. As a result, this innovative real–time processing system is now operational for seismicity monitoring in Mayotte and Martinique.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation (Workshop Report)

The Workshop on Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation convened on 17–18 July 2019 at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, and examined strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies applicable to R&D portfolio modeling, analysis, and decision support, given pragmatic constraints such as data availability, uncertainties in estimating the impact of R&D spending, and practical operational overheads. Participants employed their deep expertise in approaches such as stochastic optimization, real options, Monte-Carlo analysis, Bayesian networks, decision theory, complex systems analysis, deep uncertainty, and technology-evolution modeling to critique the initial example models developed by the project’s core team and to conduct thought experiments grounded in real-life technology models, progress data, expert elicitation, and portfolio information. This engagement of participants’ methodological expertise with the practical requirements of real-life portfolio decision support yielded ideas for improved approaches, alternative methodological hypotheses, and hybridization of methodologies that are well-grounded theoretically, computationally sound, and realistically executable given data availability and other practical constraints.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation (Workshop Report)

The Workshop on Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation convened on 17-18 July 2019 at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, and examined strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies applicable to R&D portfolio modeling, analysis, and decision support, given pragmatic constraints such as data availability, uncertainties in estimating the impact of R&D spending, and practical operational overheads. Participants employed their deep expertise in approaches such as stochastic optimization, real options, Monte-Carlo analysis, Bayesian networks, decision theory, complex systems analysis, deep uncertainty, and technology-evolution modeling to critique the initial example models developed by the project’s core team and to conduct thought experiments grounded in real-life technology models, progress data, expert elicitation, and portfolio information. This engagement of participants’ methodological expertise with the practical requirements of real-life portfolio decision support yielded ideas for improved approaches, alternative methodological hypotheses, and hybridization of methodologies that are well-grounded theoretically, computationally sound, and realistically executable given data availability and other practical constraints.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Comparison of Infectious Disease Forecasting Methods across Locations, Diseases, and Time

Accurate infectious disease forecasting can inform efforts to prevent outbreaks and mitigate adverse impacts. This study compares the performance of statistical, machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) approaches in forecasting infectious disease incidences across different countries and time intervals. We forecasted three diverse diseases: campylobacteriosis, typhoid, and Q-fever, using a wide variety of features (n = 46) from public datasets, e.g., landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. We compared autoregressive statistical models to two tree-based ML models (extreme gradient boosted trees [XGB] and random forest [RF]) and two DL models (multi-layer perceptron and encoder–decoder model). The disease models were trained on data from seven different countries at the region-level between 2009–2017. Forecasting performance of all models was assessed using mean absolute error, root mean square error, and Poisson deviance across Australia, Israel, and the United States for the months of January through August of 2018. The overall model results were compared across diseases as well as various data splits, including country, regions with highest and lowest cases, and the forecasted months out (i.e., nowcasting, short-term, and long-term forecasting). Overall, the XGB models performed the best for all diseases and, in general, tree-based ML models performed the best when looking at data splits. There were a few instances where the statistical or DL models had minutely smaller error metrics for specific subsets of typhoid, which is a disease with very low case counts. Feature importance per disease was measured by using four tree-based ML models (i.e., XGB and RF with and without region name as a feature). The most important feature groups included previous case counts, region name, population counts and density, mortality causes of neonatal to under 5 years of age, sanitation factors, and elevation. This study demonstrates the power of ML approaches to incorporate a wide range of factors to forecast various diseases, regardless of location, more accurately than traditional statistical approaches.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗