Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Prediction algorithms”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Assessment of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Products Using a Coupled ENSO Prediction Model

Much work has gone into revising and updating algorithms for converting satellite-measured radiances to useful ocean variables like sea surface salinity (e.g. SMOS - Boutin et al., 2017, SMAP - Fore et al., 2016 and Aquarius - Meissner et al., 2018). As part of our Ocean Salinity Science Team work, we utilize an intermediate-complexity air/sea coupled model as a transfer function to test if more mature satellite SSS model algorithms actually improve ENSO forecast skill. For initialization of the coupled forecast, we demonstrate that the positive impact of SSS assimilation is brought about by surface freshening near the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool and density changes that lead to shallower mixed layer between 10S-5N. In addition, salting near the ITCZ leads to a deepening of the mixed layer and thermocline near 8N. These patterns together provide the background state to amplify equatorial Kelvin waves and improve ENSO hindcasts (Hackert et al., 2019). Here we extend this work to compare the impact of various pairs of original and improved satellite SSS algorithms. For instance we compare SMAP V4.1 with the latest, SMAP V4.2, to see what impact algorithm improvements may have on ENSO forecasts. SSS observations are tested on seasonal to interannual variability of tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean dynamics as well as on dynamical ENSO forecasts by initializing twelve-month forecasts for each month of available data. All experiments assimilate satellite sea level (SL), sea surface temperature (SST), and in situ subsurface temperature and salinity observations (Tz, Sz). Additionally various satellite, blended, and in-situ SSS products are assimilated. We find that including satellite SSS significantly improves Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly validation, more mature SSS model algorithms are generally improving ENSO forecasts over time, and more satellite SSS data coverage helps to extend useful forecasts.

Ocean↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Communicating Metrics of Land Surface Temperature Variability Using Multi-sensor Machine Learning

Land surface temperature (LST) is a key climate observable used to detect changes in the Earth’s surface energy budget that influence carbon and water cycles. Land surface temperature exhibits strong diurnal variability, which geostationary satellites can observe at scale thanks to their temporal resolution. Due to anthropogenic climate and land use changes, the surface energy balance has been considerably modified and may be described by changes in diurnal temperature range and extremes. Using high performance computing and datasets from the NASA Earth Exchange, we exploit co-located, co-temporal observations from low-earth orbit (LEO) and geostationary (GEO) sensors to develop a deep learning-based method for LEO-to-GEO algorithm emulation. Our model is trained to predict MODIS Terra LST from GOES-16 thermal bands and achieves validation error <2K. Application of the model to unseen times of day (observed by MODIS Aqua) and a new GEO sensor (Himawari-8) observing an unseen spatial domain, demonstrate the generalization of the deep learning model across space, time and spectra. Further, time series clustering approaches are examined with the objective of identifying key indicators of change in diurnal cycling and extremes on a continental scale. Communicating LST variability observed by geostationary satellites can have impacts in multiple disciplines, from understanding of snow, vegetation and soil dynamics, to recognizing trends in heat events relevant to human health.

Kate Duffy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

LEO Sensor to GEO Sensor Algorithm Transfer Models for Land Surface Temperature

Land surface temperature (LST) is a key climate observable used to detect changes in the Earth’s surface energy budget that influence carbon and water cycles. Land surface temperature exhibits strong diurnal variability, which geostationary satellites can observe at scale thanks to their temporal resolution. Due to anthropogenic climate and land use changes, the surface energy balance has been considerably modified and may be described by changes in diurnal temperature range and extremes. Using high performance computing and datasets from the NASA Earth Exchange, we exploit co-located, co-temporal observations from low-earth orbit (LEO) and geostationary (GEO) sensors to develop a deep learning-based method for LEO-to-GEO algorithm emulation. Our model is trained to predict MODIS Terra LST from GOES-16 thermal bands and achieves validation error <2K. Application of the model to unseen times of day (observed by MODIS Aqua) and a new GEO sensor (Himawari-8) observing an unseen spatial domain, demonstrate the generalization of the deep learning model across space, time and spectra. Communicating diurnal LST variability observed by geostationary satellites can have impacts in multiple disciplines, from understanding of snow, vegetation and soil dynamics, to recognizing trends in heat events relevant to human health.

Kate Marie Duffy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning Algorithms for Alignment Verification of the Roman Space Telescope

The Nancy Grace Roman Telescope is a NASA observatory designed to unravel the secrets of dark energy and dark matter, search for and image exoplanets, and explore many topics in infrared optics. Scheduled to launch no earlier than October 2026, this 2.4 meter aperture telescope has a field of view 100 times greater than the Hubble Space Telescope. The mission is currently in its construction phase, where the telescope and its two instruments will soon be aligned together to ensure proper pupil matching. To help verify this alignment, multiple point sources above the entrance pupil of the telescope will illuminate the optical path through the telescope-instrument system, and shadows of various obstructions in the system will be analyzed using machine learning algorithms to determine the pupil matching error. This presentation discusses the test approach and the machine learning algorithms employed, as well as our uncertainty predictions based on a modeled Monte-Carlo analysis of the test.

Telescope↗
NASA NTRS1993

General-Purpose Time-Accurate Adaptive-Grid Method

Adaptive-grid method provides for generation of time-accurate grids used to solve wide variety of problems numerically. Intended use in computation of compressible flows. Part of solution method including algebraic grid-movement scheme; algorithm solving, by use of explicit numerical-integration scheme, Euler equations of unsteady flow; and temporal coupling routine utilizing grid-prediction/correction method to link dynamic grid with Euler-equation-solving algorithm. Improves ability to adapt grid to multiple features of solution and involves use of coarse grid in prediction stage of temporal coupling reducing central-processing-unit cost of obtaining new grid.

Bockelie, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Runtime Verification with State Estimation

We introduce the concept of Runtime Verification with State Estimation and show how this concept can be applied to estimate theprobability that a temporal property is satisfied by a run of a program when monitoring overhead is reduced by sampling. In such situations, there may be gaps in the observed program executions, thus making accurate estimation challenging. To deal with the effects of sampling on runtime verification, we view event sequences as observation sequences of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM), use an HMM model of the monitored program to "fill in" sampling-induced gaps in observation sequences, and extend the classic forward algorithm for HMM state estimation (which determines the probability of a state sequence, given an observation sequence) to compute the probability that the property is satisfied by an execution of the program. To validate our approach, we present a case study based on the mission software for a Mars rover. The results of our case study demonstrate high prediction accuracy for the probabilities computed by our algorithm. They also show that our technique is much more accurate than simply evaluating the temporal property on the given observation sequences, ignoring the gaps.

sampling↗
NASA NTRS2015

A Formally Verified Conflict Detection Algorithm for Polynomial Trajectories

In air traffic management, conflict detection algorithms are used to determine whether or not aircraft are predicted to lose horizontal and vertical separation minima within a time interval assuming a trajectory model. In the case of linear trajectories, conflict detection algorithms have been proposed that are both sound, i.e., they detect all conflicts, and complete, i.e., they do not present false alarms. In general, for arbitrary nonlinear trajectory models, it is possible to define detection algorithms that are either sound or complete, but not both. This paper considers the case of nonlinear aircraft trajectory models based on polynomial functions. In particular, it proposes a conflict detection algorithm that precisely determines whether, given a lookahead time, two aircraft flying polynomial trajectories are in conflict. That is, it has been formally verified that, assuming that the aircraft trajectories are modeled as polynomial functions, the proposed algorithm is both sound and complete.

Narkawicz, Anthony↗
NASA NTRS1999

Novel, Miniature Multi-Hole Probes and High-Accuracy Calibration Algorithms for their use in Compressible Flowfields

Two new calibration algorithms were developed for the calibration of non-nulling multi-hole probes in compressible, subsonic flowfields. The reduction algorithms are robust and able to reduce data from any multi-hole probe inserted into any subsonic flowfield to generate very accurate predictions of the velocity vector, flow direction, total pressure and static pressure. One of the algorithms PROBENET is based on the theory of neural networks, while the other is of a more conventional nature (polynomial approximation technique) and introduces a novel idea of local least-squares fits. Both algorithms have been developed to complete, user-friendly software packages. New technology was developed for the fabrication of miniature multi-hole probes, with probe tip diameters all the way down to 0.035". Several miniature 5- and 7-hole probes, with different probe tip geometries (hemispherical, conical, faceted) and different overall shapes (straight, cobra, elbow probes) were fabricated, calibrated and tested. Emphasis was placed on the development of four stainless-steel conical 7-hole probes, 1/16" in diameter calibrated at NASA Langley for the entire subsonic regime. The developed calibration algorithms were extensively tested with these probes demonstrating excellent prediction capabilities. The probes were used in the "trap wing" wind tunnel tests in the 14'x22' wind tunnel at NASA Langley, providing valuable information on the flowfield over the wing. This report is organized in the following fashion. It consists of a "Technical Achievements" section that summarizes the major achievements, followed by an assembly of journal articles that were produced from this project and ends with two manuals for the two probe calibration algorithms developed.

Rediniotis, Othon K.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A generalizable machine learning approach to predict land surface temperature

Monitoring of land surface and atmospheric states is highly reliant on satellite data. Traditionally, data products are generated using carefully tuned and validated algorithms for low-earth orbit (LEO) sensors. However, the emerging constellation of geostationary (GEO) sensors contributes global, high temporal resolution observations which can better capture the diurnal variability of key observables like land surface temperature (LST). Using high performance computing and datasets from the NASA Earth Exchange, we exploit co-located, co-temporal observations from LEO and GEO satellites to develop a deep learning-based method for sensor-to-sensor algorithm emulation. Our model is trained on GOES-16 thermal bands to predict MODIS Terra LST and achieves a validation error <2K. Further, application of the model to unseen times of day and a second GEO sensor observing an unseen spatial domain demonstrate the generalization of the deep learning model across space, time and spectra. We anticipate that the synergies between a variety of active orbit configurations can be used to accelerate application of existing algorithms to new datasets.

Kate Marie Duffy↗
NASA NTRS1994

Graph-Based Dynamic Assignment Of Multiple Processors

Algorithm-to-architecture mapping model (ATAMM) is strategy minimizing time needed to periodically execute graphically described, data-driven application algorithm on multiple data processors. Implemented as operating system managing flow of data and dynamically assigns nodes of graph to processors. Predicts throughput versus number of processors available to execute given application algorithm. Includes rules ensuring application algorithm represented by graph executed periodically without deadlock and in shortest possible repetition time. ATAMM proves useful in maximizing effectiveness of parallel computing systems.

Hayes, Paul J.↗
NASA NTRS1997

An Impact-Location Estimation Algorithm for Subsonic Uninhabited Aircraft

An impact-location estimation algorithm is being used at the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center to support range safety for uninhabited aerial vehicle flight tests. The algorithm computes an impact location based on the descent rate, mass, and altitude of the vehicle and current wind information. The predicted impact location is continuously displayed on the range safety officer's moving map display so that the flightpath of the vehicle can be routed to avoid ground assets if the flight must be terminated. The algorithm easily adapts to different vehicle termination techniques and has been shown to be accurate to the extent required to support range safety for subsonic uninhabited aerial vehicles. This paper describes how the algorithm functions, how the algorithm is used at NASA Dryden, and how various termination techniques are handled by the algorithm. Other approaches to predicting the impact location and the reasons why they were not selected for real-time implementation are also discussed.

Bauer, Jeffrey E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Image interpretation and prediction in microwave diversity imaging

The microwave image of a metallic object is interpreted from a point of view based on the understanding of the interconnection between the scattering mechanisms, the data acquisition system, and the image reconstruction algorithm. From this understanding it is possible to interpret and predict microwave images reconstructed from data collected over specified and angular windows. The connection between a special scattering mechanism, edge diffraction, and its reconstructed image is established. The microwave image of an edge is two bright points whose locations correspond to the end points of the edge if the normal aspect angle is not included in the angular windows; otherwise a line joining the two end points and representing the edge will appear in the image. Experimental images of a trihedral reflector constructed from data collected over different angular windows support this approach to image interpretation and prediction.

Li, Hsueh-Jyh↗
NASA NTRS2001

Computation of Coupled Thermal-Fluid Problems in Distributed Memory Environment

The thermal-fluid coupling problems are very important to aerospace and engineering applications. Instead of analyzing heat transfer and fluid flow separately, this study merged two well-accepted engineering solution methods, SINDA for thermal analysis and FDNS for fluid flow simulation, into a unified multi-disciplinary thermal fluid prediction method. A fully conservative patched grid interface algorithm for arbitrary two-dimensional and three-dimensional geometry has been developed. The state-of-the-art parallel computing concept was used to couple SINDA and FDNS for the communication of boundary conditions through PVM (Parallel Virtual Machine) libraries. Therefore, the thermal analysis performed by SINDA and the fluid flow calculated by FDNS are fully coupled to obtain steady state or transient solutions. The natural convection between two thick-walled eccentric tubes was calculated and the predicted results match the experiment data perfectly. A 3-D rocket engine model and a real 3-D SSME geometry were used to test the current model, and the reasonable temperature field was obtained.

Wei, H.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Computational fluid dynamics - A personal view

This paper provides a personal view of computational fluid dynamics. The main theme is divided into two categories - one dealing with algorithms and engineering applications and the other with scientific investigations. The former category may be termed computational aerodynamics, with the objective of providing reliable aerodynamic or engineering predictions. The latter category is essentially basic research, where the algorithmic tools are used to unravel and elucidate fluid-dynamic phenomena hard to obtain in a laboratory. A critique of the numerical solution techniques for both compressible and incompressible flows is included. The discussion on scientific investigations deals in particular with transition and turbulence.

Hussaini, M. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Simulation of cryogenic turbopump annular seals

The goal of the current work is to develop software that can accurately predict the dynamic coefficients, forces, leakage and horsepower loss for annular seals which have a potential for affecting the rotordynamic behavior of the pumps. The fruit of last year's research was the computer code SEALPAL which included capabilities for linear tapered geometry, Moody friction factor and inlet pre-swirl. This code produced results which in most cases compared very well with check cases presented in the literature. TAMUSEAL Icode, which was written to improve SEALPAL by correcting a bug and by adding more accurate integration algorithms and additional capabilities, was then used to predict dynamic coefficients and leakage for the NASA/Pratt and Whitney Alternate Turbopump Development (ATD) LOX Pump's seal.

Palazzolo, Alan B.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Deep impact spacecraft flyby instrument pointing in the presence of a non-active impactor spacecraft

This paper deals only with the pointing error contribution due to errors in predicting the impact location and describes the acquisition of optical data of the Impactor and associated errors using the flyby instruments; the algorithm for autonomously computing a pointing correction; the expected uncertainty in predicting the impact location; the uncertainty in the flyby pointing correction, and hence the improvement in performance.

flyby deep impact mission Impactor↗
NASA NTRS2005

Dynamic wake prediction and visualization with uncertainty analysis

A dynamic wake avoidance system utilizes aircraft and atmospheric parameters readily available in flight to model and predict airborne wake vortices in real time. A novel combination of algorithms allows for a relatively simple yet robust wake model to be constructed based on information extracted from a broadcast. The system predicts the location and movement of the wake based on the nominal wake model and correspondingly performs an uncertainty analysis on the wake model to determine a wake hazard zone (no fly zone), which comprises a plurality of wake planes, each moving independently from another. The system selectively adjusts dimensions of each wake plane to minimize spatial and temporal uncertainty, thereby ensuring that the actual wake is within the wake hazard zone. The predicted wake hazard zone is communicated in real time directly to a user via a realistic visual representation. In an example, the wake hazard zone is visualized on a 3-D flight deck display to enable a pilot to visualize or see a neighboring aircraft as well as its wake. The system substantially enhances the pilot's situational awareness and allows for a further safe decrease in spacing, which could alleviate airport and airspace congestion.

Holforty, Wendy L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Scatter-Reducing Sounding Filtration Using a Genetic Algorithm and Mean Monthly Standard Deviation

Retrieval algorithms like that used by the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO)-2 mission generate massive quantities of data of varying quality and reliability. A computationally efficient, simple method of labeling problematic datapoints or predicting soundings that will fail is required for basic operation, given that only 6% of the retrieved data may be operationally processed. This method automatically obtains a filter designed to reduce scatter based on a small number of input features. Most machine-learning filter construction algorithms attempt to predict error in the CO2 value. By using a surrogate goal of Mean Monthly STDEV, the goal is to reduce the retrieved CO2 scatter rather than solving the harder problem of reducing CO2 error. This lends itself to improved interpretability and performance. This software reduces the scatter of retrieved CO2 values globally based on a minimum number of input features. It can be used as a prefilter to reduce the number of soundings requested, or as a post-filter to label data quality. The use of the MMS (Mean Monthly Standard deviation) provides a much cleaner, clearer filter than the standard ABS(CO2-truth) metrics previously employed by competitor methods. The software's main strength lies in a clearer (i.e., fewer features required) filter that more efficiently reduces scatter in retrieved CO2 rather than focusing on the more complex (and easily removed) bias issues.

Mandrake, Lukas↗