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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2015

Wear-Out Sensitivity Analysis Project Abstract

During the course of the Summer 2015 internship session, I worked in the Reliability and Maintainability group of the ISS Safety and Mission Assurance department. My project was a statistical analysis of how sensitive ORU's (Orbital Replacement Units) are to a reliability parameter called the wear-out characteristic. The intended goal of this was to determine a worst case scenario of how many spares would be needed if multiple systems started exhibiting wear-out characteristics simultaneously. The goal was also to determine which parts would be most likely to do so. In order to do this, my duties were to take historical data of operational times and failure times of these ORU's and use them to build predictive models of failure using probability distribution functions, mainly the Weibull distribution. Then, I ran Monte Carlo Simulations to see how an entire population of these components would perform. From here, my final duty was to vary the wear-out characteristic from the intrinsic value, to extremely high wear-out values and determine how much the probability of sufficiency of the population would shift. This was done for around 30 different ORU populations on board the ISS.

Harris, Adam↗
NASA NTRS2015

X-1 to X-Wings: Developing a Parametric Cost Model

In todays cost-constrained environment, NASA needs an X-Plane database and parametric cost model that can quickly provide rough order of magnitude predictions of cost from initial concept to first fight of potential X-Plane aircraft. This paper takes a look at the steps taken in developing such a model and reports the results. The challenges encountered in the collection of historical data and recommendations for future database management are discussed. A step-by-step discussion of the development of Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) is then covered.

parametric cost model↗
NASA NTRS2016

Colonoscopy Screening in the US Astronaut Corps

BACKGROUND: Historically, colonoscopy screenings for astronauts have been conducted to ensure that astronauts are in good health for space missions. Recently this historical data has been identified as being useful for developing an occupational surveillance requirement. It can be used to assess overall colon health and to have a point of reference for future tests in current and former astronauts, as well as to follow-up and track rates of colorectal cancer and polyps. These rates can be compared to military and other terrestrial populations. In 2003, the active astronaut colonoscopy requirements changed to require less frequent colonoscopies. Since polyp removal during a colonoscopy is an intervention that prevents the polyp from potentially developing into cancer, the procedure decreases the individual's risk for colon cancer. The objective of this study is to evaluate the possible effect of increased follow-up times between colonoscopies on the number and severity of polyps identified during the procedures among both current and former NASA astronauts. Initial results and forward work regarding astronaut colonoscopy screenings will be presented. METHODS: A retrospective study of all colonoscopy procedures performed on NASA astronauts between 1962 and 2015 (both during active career and retirement) was conducted by review of the JSC Clinic Electronic Medical Record and Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) database for colonoscopy screening procedures and pathology reports. The timeframe of interest was from the time of selection into the Astronaut Corps through May 2015 or death. For each colonoscopy report, the following data were captured: date of procedure, age at time of procedure, reason for procedure, quality of bowel prep, completion of procedure and/or reason for termination of procedure, findings of procedure, subsequent treatment (if any), recommended follow-up interval, actual follow up interval, family history of polyps or colon cancer, and other significant items or discrepancies. The population consisted of 338 astronauts: 52 females, 286 males. Of these, 56 were deceased, and 11 astronauts had no record of any colonoscopies. Because of a screening requirement change in 2003, analyses were conducted to determine if there were differences between the two time periods. One-sided Wilcoxon rank sum tests were used to identify statistically significant differences between the two time periods. RESULTS: There was a combined total of 1,964 colonoscopy screenings identified. The average follow-up intervals between colonoscopies were indeed longer after the screening requirement change than before the change. The mean follow-up interval pre -2003 was 3.59 years, while post-2003 it increased to 4.35 years. The statistical significance of this difference was confirmed using a one sided Wilcoxon rank sum test which yielded p<.001. Colonoscopies performed after the requirement change tended to have a higher incidence and greater severity of polyps. From pre-2003 to post-2003 the percentage of colonoscopy procedures yielding no polyps decreased from 83.77% to 74.70%. Not only did post-2003 procedures yield more polyp findings, but the polyps recorded were more often of severe pathology. Before 2003 3.62% of colonoscopy findings were polyps of the hyperplastic type (the least severe polyp type) and only 3.35% were of greater severity. Post-2003, 4.21% of findings were hyperplastic polyps while 11.44% were of greater severity. Upon the investigation of other possible contributing factors to these results, we also found that mean age post-2003 was 54.55 years which was significantly higher than during the pre-2003 timeframe (47.32 years). This was observed with a one-sided Wilcoxon rank sum test, resulting in a p<0.001. The increased average age of astronauts could also be a contributing factor to the greater number of polyps found since the risk of developing polyps increases with age. Further work is needed to better understand the increased incidence and greater severity of polyps found in astronaut colonoscopy outcomes.

Masterova, K.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Technology Cost and Schedule Estimation (TCASE) Final Report

During the 2014-2015 project year, the focus of the TCASE project has shifted from collection of historical data from many sources to securing a data pipeline between TCASE and NASA's widely used TechPort system. TCASE v1.0 implements a data import solution that was achievable within the project scope, while still providing the basis for a long-term ability to keep TCASE in sync with TechPort. Conclusion: TCASE data quantity is adequate and the established data pipeline will enable future growth. Data quality is now highly dependent the quality of data in TechPort. Recommendation: Technology development organizations within NASA should continue to work closely with project/program data tracking and archiving efforts (e.g. TechPort) to ensure that the right data is being captured at the appropriate quality level. TCASE would greatly benefit, for example, if project cost/budget information was included in TechPort in the future.

Wallace, Jon↗
NASA NTRS2015

Underestimation of Project Costs

Large projects almost always exceed their budgets. Estimating cost is difficult and estimated costs are usually too low. Three different reasons are suggested: bad luck, overoptimism, and deliberate underestimation. Project management can usually point to project difficulty and complexity, technical uncertainty, stakeholder conflicts, scope changes, unforeseen events, and other not really unpredictable bad luck. Project planning is usually over-optimistic, so the likelihood and impact of bad luck is systematically underestimated. Project plans reflect optimism and hope for success in a supposedly unique new effort rather than rational expectations based on historical data. Past project problems are claimed to be irrelevant because "This time it's different." Some bad luck is inevitable and reasonable optimism is understandable, but deliberate deception must be condemned. In a competitive environment, project planners and advocates often deliberately underestimate costs to help gain project approval and funding. Project benefits, cost savings, and probability of success are exaggerated and key risks ignored. Project advocates have incentives to distort information and conceal difficulties from project approvers. One naively suggested cure is more openness, honesty, and group adherence to shared overall goals. A more realistic alternative is threatening overrun projects with cancellation. Neither approach seems to solve the problem. A better method to avoid the delusions of over-optimism and the deceptions of biased advocacy is to base the project cost estimate on the actual costs of a large group of similar projects. Over optimism and deception can continue beyond the planning phase and into project execution. Hard milestones based on verified tests and demonstrations can provide a reality check.

Cost estimation↗
NASA NTRS2016

Contribution of Schedule Delays to Cost Growth: How to Make Peace with a Marching Army

Numerous research papers have shown that cost and schedule growth are interrelated for NASA space science missions. Although there has shown to be a strong correlation of cost growth with schedule growth, it is unclear what percentage of cost growth is caused by schedule growth and how schedule growth can be controlled. This paper attempts to quantify this percentage by looking at historical data and show detailed examples of how schedule growth influences cost growth. The paper also addresses a methodology to show an alternate approach for assessing and setting a robust baseline schedule and use schedule performance metrics to help assess if the project is performing to plan. Finally, recommendations are presented to help control schedule growth in order to minimize cost growth for NASA space science missions.

schedule↗
NASA NTRS2016

Initial Analysis of and Predictive Model Development for Weather Reroute Advisory Use

In response to severe weather conditions, traffic management coordinators specify reroutes to route air traffic around affected regions of airspace. Providing analysis and recommendations of available reroute options would assist the traffic management coordinators in making more efficient rerouting decisions. These recommendations can be developed by examining historical data to determine which previous reroute options were used in similar weather and traffic conditions. Essentially, using previous information to inform future decisions. This paper describes the initial steps and methodology used towards this goal. A method to extract relevant features from the large volume of weather data to quantify the convective weather scenario during a particular time range is presented. Similar routes are clustered. A description of the algorithm to identify which cluster of reroute advisories were actually followed by pilots is described. Models built for fifteen of the top twenty most frequently used reroute clusters correctly predict the use of the cluster for over 60 of the test examples. Results are preliminary but indicate that the methodology is worth pursuing with modifications based on insight gained from this analysis.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRS2015

Wearable Beat-to-Beat Blood Pressure Monitor

Linea Research Corporation has developed a wearable noninvasive monitor that provides continuous blood pressure and heart rate measurements in extreme environments. Designed to monitor the physiological effects of astronauts' prolonged exposure to reduced-gravity environments as well as the effectiveness of various countermeasures, the device offers wireless connectivity to allow transfer of both real-time and historical data. It can be modified to monitor the health status of astronaut crew members during extravehicular missions.

Lee, Yong Jin↗
NASA NTRS2016

Investigating the Feasibility of Utilizing Carbon Nanotube Fibers for Spacesuit Dust Mitigation

Historical data from the Apollo missions has compelled NASA to identify dust mitigation of spacesuits and other components as a critical path prior to sending humans on potential future lunar exploration missions. Several studies thus far have proposed passive and active countermeasures to address this challenge. However, these technologies have been primarily developed and proven for rigid surfaces such as solar cells and thermal radiators. Integration of these technologies for spacesuit dust mitigation has remained an open challenge due to the complexity of suit design. Current research investigates novel methods to enhance integration of the Electrodynamic Dust Shield (EDS) concept for spacesuits. We leverage previously proven EDS concept developed by NASA for rigid surfaces and apply new techniques to integrate the technology into spacesuits to mitigate dust contamination. The study specifically examines the feasibility of utilizing Carbon Nanotube (CNT) yarns manufactured by Rice University as electrodes in spacesuit material. Proof of concept testing was conducted at NASA Kennedy Space Center using lunar regolith simulant to understand the feasibility of the proposed techniques for spacesuit application. Results from the experiments are detailed in this paper. Potential challenges of applying this technology for spacesuits are also identified.

Electrodynamic Dust Shield↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Statistical Analysis of the Accuracy of the Digitized Magnitudes of Photometric Plates on the Timescale of Decades with an Application to the Century-Long Light Curve of KIC 8462852

We present a statistical analysis of the accuracy of the digitized magnitudes of photometric plates on the timescale of decades. In our examination of archival Johnson B photometry from the Harvard DASCH archive, we find a median rt mean square scatter of light curves of the order of 0.15 magnitude over the range B approximately equal to 9-17 for all calibrations. Slight underlying systematics (trends or flux discontinuities) are on a level of less than or equal to 0.2 magnitudes per century (1889–1990) for the majority of constant stars. These historic data can be unambiguously used for processes that happen on scales of magnitudes, and need to be carefully examined in cases approaching the noise floor. The characterization of these limits in photometric stability may guide future studies in their use of plate archives. We explain these limitations for the example case of KIC 8462852, which has been claimed to dim by 0.16 magnitudes per century, and show that this trend cannot be considered as significant.

digitized magnitudes of photometric plates↗
NASA NTRS2017

Ecological Study of Lagoons Surrounding the John F. Kennedy Space Center, Brevard County, Florida : Theses and Project Reports - Volume 2

Many of the detailed studies done in connection with Ecological Study of the Lagoons surrounding the John F. Kennedy Space Port were performed as Master's Thesis investigations by various graduate students enrolled at F. I. T. during and subsequent to the report. The scope and purpose of what we came to call "the KSC Baseline Study" caught the imagination and interest of our student body. Many who were not financially or otherwise connected with the project found their inspiration in studies that were directly connected with project, and thus added materially to the totality of the knowledge gained. An example of one such study is the first article included in this Volume, A Master's Thesis study performed by Shen Phillip Chen, who chose the site for his investigation so that his results would correlate with and extend the results of others. In addition to the Master's Theses contained in this Volume, six other graduate studies must be acknowledged here as contributing to this Report, although they have not reached the stage of final publication. Ms. Sandra Fettes has completed a study of the amounts of five trace metals in mangrove leaves from plants at various locations around the Kennedy Space Center. Mr. Bernard Cohenour has isolated and identified a number of oil consuming bacteria endemic in the waters of the Indian Rivers. Mr. Charles Waterhouse has analyzed historic data of tidal gauges in the lagoonal area and correlated it with wind field records. Mr. Renkert Meyer has measured the vertical and horizontal currents of the lagoons and is attempting an interpretation of them in terms of the wind field as a driving force. Mr. Richard Campbell has measured the rate of nitrogen fixation in both the water columns and the sediments under them in the lagoons. Mr. Craig Weiderhold has measured thl3 annual variations in the populations of benthic invertebrates in the lagoons. An integral part of the F. I. T. curriculum is a requirement that each undergraduate student perform an independent study during his Senior year and submit his results in the form and format of a professional scientific report. While none of these senior Project Reports have been included in this Volume because of space limitations, many of them aided significantly in the overall study. Typical of these were: light and dark bottle studies of the blue-green algae respiration; writing and executing computer studies comparing the water chemistry data from various sites; detection and identification of nitrogen fixation bacteria in the Indian River; measurement of dissolved oils and greases in the river, photographically recording the benthic life-forms found in the river bottom; measuring the vertical structure of drift and slope currents in too lagoons; and measurement of water level variations along the long axis of a lagoon as a function of wind stress. These articles are published as a part of this Final Report in an effort to make available for the record as much of the basic data as possible. The few articles published on the Indian River have in general not contained much detailed data, so that comparisons of current status to conditions of the past are difficult or impossible. A major effort of both the Oceanographic and Ecological communities for the past decade has been the retrieval and storage of basic data in order to permit determinations of trends or changes in baseline conditions. It is believed that the information compiled here will be of great value in any future investigations.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2017

Analysis of Convective Weather Impact on Pre-Departure Routing of Flights from Fort Worth Center to New York Center

In response to severe weather conditions, Traffic Managers specify flow constraints and reroutes to route air traffic around affected regions of airspace. Providing analysis and recommendations of available reroute options and associated airspace capacities would assist Traffic Managers in making more efficient decisions in response to convective weather. These recommendations can be developed by examining historical data to determine which previous reroute options were used in similar weather and traffic conditions. This paper describes the initial steps and methodology used towards this goal. The focus of this work is flights departing from Fort Worth Center destined for New York Center. Dominant routing structures used in the absence of convective weather are identified. A method to extract relevant features from the large volume of weather data available to quantify the impact of convective weather on this routing structure over a given time range is presented. Finally, a method of estimating flow rate capacity along commonly used routes during convective weather events is described. Results show that the flow rates drop exponentially as a function of the values of the proposed feature and that convective weather on the final third of the route was found to have a greater impact on the flow rate restriction than other portions of the route.

traffic flow management↗
NASA NTRS2017

Sonic Booms in Atmospheric Turbulence (SonicBAT) Ground Measurements in a Hot Desert Climate

The Sonic Booms in Atmospheric Turbulence (SonicBAT) Project flew a series of 20 F-18 flights with 69 supersonic passes at Edwards Air Force Base in July 2016 to quantify the effect of atmospheric turbulence on sonic booms. Most of the passes were at a pressure altitude of 32,000 feet and a Mach number of 1.4, yielding a nominal sonic boom overpressure of 1.6 pounds per square foot. Atmospheric sensors such as GPS sondeballoons, Sonic Detection and Ranging (SODAR) acoustic sounders, and ultrasonic anemometers were used to characterize the turbulence state of the atmosphere for each flight. Spiked signatures in excess of 7 pounds per square foot were measured at some locations, as well as rounded sonic-boom signatures with levels much lower than the nominal. This presentation will quantify the range of overpressure and Perceived Level of the sonic boom as a function of turbulence parameters, and also present the spatial variation of these quantities over the array. Comparison with historical data will also be shown.

acoustic testing↗
NASA NTRS2017

Field Programmable Gate Array Failure Rate Estimation Guidelines for Launch Vehicle Fault Tree Models

Today's launch vehicles complex electronic and avionic systems heavily utilize the Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) integrated circuit (IC). FPGAs are prevalent ICs in communication protocols such as MIL-STD-1553B, and in control signal commands such as in solenoid/servo valves actuations. This paper will demonstrate guidelines to estimate FPGA failure rates for a launch vehicle, the guidelines will account for hardware, firmware, and radiation induced failures. The hardware contribution of the approach accounts for physical failures of the IC, FPGA memory and clock. The firmware portion will provide guidelines on the high level FPGA programming language and ways to account for software/code reliability growth. The radiation portion will provide guidelines on environment susceptibility as well as guidelines on tailoring other launch vehicle programs historical data to a specific launch vehicle.

Al Hassan, Mohammad↗
NASA NTRS2017

Global Measurements of Optically Thin Ice Clouds Using CALIOP

Optically thin ice clouds have been shown to have a net warming effect on the globe but, because passive instruments are not sensitive to optically thin clouds, the occurrence frequency of this class of clouds is greatly underestimated in historical passive sensor cloud climatology. One major strength of CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization), onboard the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) spacecraft, is its ability to detect these thin clouds, thus filling an important missing piece in the historical data record. This poster examines the full mission of CALIPSO Level 2 data, focusing on those CALIOP retrievals identified as thin ice clouds according to the definition shown to the right. Using this definition, thin ice clouds are identified and counted globally and vertically for each season. By examining the spatial and seasonal distributions of these thin clouds we hope to gain a better understanding these thin ice clouds and how their global distribution has changed over the mission. This poster showcases when and where CALIOP detects thin ice clouds and examines a case study of the eastern pacific and the effects seen from the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Ryan, R.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Estimating Software Reliability for Space Launch Vehicles in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

It is acutely recognized in the Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA) field that software plays a defining role in overall system reliability for all modern systems across a wide variety of industries. Regardless if the software is embedded firmware for working components or elements, part of a Human-Machine-Interface, or automated command and control logic, the success of the software to fulfill its function under nominal and off-nominal environments will be a dominant contributor to system reliability. It is also recognized that software reliability prediction and estimation is one of the more challenging and questionable aspects of any PRA or system analyses due to the nature of software and its integration with physics based systems. Irrespective of this dichotomy, any incorporation of software reliability methods requires that the contributions are accountable, quantitative, and tractable. This paper provides a brief overview of software reliability methods, establishes some minimum requirements that the methods should incorporate for completeness, and provides a logic structure for applying software reliability. Model resolution will be discussed that supports current testing plans and trade studies. We will provide initial recommendations for use in the NASA PRA and present a future dynamic option for software and PRA. Space Launch Vehicle Software is recognized to be reliable in static conditions, yet relatively vulnerable to a set of failure modes in changing environments/flight phases. Two quantitative methods were chosen to incorporate software reliability into a Space Launch Vehicle PRA accounting for phase adjustments. One method predicts latent software failure using statistical methods, and the second provides estimates of coding errors and software operating system failures based on test and historical data, respectively. Software uncertainty will also be discussed. We determined that recommendations for PRA software reliability should be modeled at the software module level where multiple software components compose a module and combinations of the software architecture can lead to a functional failure.

Novack, Steven↗
NASA NTRS2018

Estimating Software Reliability for Space Launch Vehicles in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

It is acutely recognized in the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) field that software plays a defining role in overall system reliability for all modern systems across a wide variety of industries. Regardless of whether the software is embedded firmware for working components or elements, part of a Human-Machine-Interface, or automated command and control logic, the success of the software to fulfill its function under nominal and off-nominal environments will be a dominant contributor to system reliability. It is also recognized that software reliability prediction and estimation is one of the more challenging and questionable aspects of any PRA or system analyses due to the nature of software and its integration with physics based systems. Irrespective of this dichotomy, any incorporation of software reliability methods requires that the contributions are accountable, quantitative, and tractable. This paper provides a brief overview of software reliability methods, establishes some minimum requirements that the methods should incorporate for completeness, and provides a logic structure for applying software reliability. Model resolution will be discussed that supports current testing plans and trade studies. We will provide initial recommendations for use in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) PRA and present a future dynamic option for software and PRA. Space Launch Vehicle software is recognized to be reliable in static conditions, yet relatively vulnerable to a set of failure modes in changing environments/flight phases. Two quantitative methods were chosen to incorporate software reliability into a Space Launch Vehicle PRA accounting for phase adjustments. One method predicts latent software failure using statistical methods, and the second provides estimates of coding errors and software operating system failures based on test and historical data. Software uncertainty will also be discussed. It is determined that recommendations for PRA software reliability should be modeled at the software module level where multiple software components compose a module and combinations of the software architecture can lead to a functional failure.

Steven D. Novack↗
NASA NTRS2018

Comparison of First-Come First-Served and Optimization Based Scheduling Algorithms for Integrated Departure and Arrival Management

Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) are investigating scheduling algorithms that will be a part of an integrated arrival and departure management system. Inha University, one of the Korean collaborators of KARI, developed an Extended First-Come First-Served (EFCFS) algorithm that is robust and efficient. However, since the EFCFS algorithm sequentially computes the schedule based on priority, the end results may not be optimal for system efficiency. The approach based on Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) originally developed by NASA and modified by KARI is known to produce better schedules at the expense of computational cost. In this paper, the two different scheduling approaches are compared using common traffic scenarios and constraints at Incheon International Airport. Capabilities to apply weight class based wake turbulence runway separation minima and Miles-in-Trail (MIT) restrictions at selected meter fixes are added to the previously developed EFCFS scheduler. Based on historic data, 40 departures and 20 arrivals are chosen in a one-hour period and 100 scenarios were created by randomly assigning gate numbers, gate departure times, and runway landing times. With the current runway separation requirements, MILP resulted in about ten to twenty percent smaller average delays depending on the constraints. With artificially increased separation minima, the difference between MILP and EFCFS became more noticeable. However, the EFCFS was about ten times faster with smaller variations among different scenarios and constraints. The comparison suggests that the MILP-based algorithm has a small advantage at the current traffic level; however, has potential to be more effective in higher demand or severe weather situations. The EFCFS algorithm may be better suited for real-time applications or investigating larger scale scheduling problems.

air traffic optimization↗