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At least 559 records · Page 31

Development of a Supervisory Tool for Fault Detection and Diagnosis of DC Electric Power Systems with the Application of Deep Space Vehicles

This dissertation formulates the problem of fault detection and diagnosis of DC electric power systems for the application of autonomous spacecraft. The ability to accurately identify and isolate failures in the electrical power system is critical to ensure the reliability of a spacecraft. This problem becomes more pronounced during deep space missions that lack the ability to monitor from ground control. The current state of electrical power system fault supervision is insufficient to guarantee highly reliable and robust operation. To solve this issue, a combination of model-based and rules-based techniques are used in a hierarchical framework to improve the diagnostic performance of the spacecraft electrical power system. Noise, disturbances, and modeling errors are considered in the design of the method. Practical considerations related to the hardware and software are discussed for the flight application. A wide array of failure types are simulated in a series of experiments to assess the functionality of the design. The experiments showed that the methods used improved the diagnostic capability of the autonomous system while taking into account the limitations attributed to flight software requirements. The significance of this study is to provide a framework capable of advanced diagnostics of an electrical power system with little to no interaction from a human operator.

Fault Detection and Diagnosis↗

Explaining System-Level Prognostics with Established Machine Learning Methods

System-level prognostics is crucial for ensuring reliability and enabling predictive maintenance in complex systems with interconnected components. This study presents a framework that integrates data-driven methods to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of a subsystem under multiple and concurrent faults within a nuclear power plant system with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). A nuclear power plant (NPP) operation was simulated to model the degradation behavior of NPP components, and four machine learning models—Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)—were evaluated for prognostics with a novel system RUL parameter. The LSTM model demonstrated potential superior repeatability, while SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) for explainability provided consistent and trustworthy global explanations. In contrast, LIME (Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations) offered localized interpretability but showed reduced stability for sequential data. Key findings include the interplay between component-level degradation and system-wide performance, with LSTM effectively capturing these dynamics through sequence-level predictions. The XAI techniques enhanced transparency by identifying critical features influencing model predictions and aligning with domain knowledge. Furthermore, this framework has significant implications for improving trust and understanding in predictive maintenance, particularly in safety-critical industries like nuclear energy.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Robust Solution Verification Experiments on Nonuniform Meshes

The activities of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) provide a comprehensive means to assess the credibility of computational models. Within VVUQ, solution verification assesses numerical errors and evaluates whether the simulation is sufficiently accurate for its intended applications. As computational modeling gains traction in the development of complex, high-consequence systems, the need for robust solution verification intensifies, particularly because experimental data for these systems are often limited. This work examines improvements in the robustness of Richardson extrapolation (RE), a method commonly used in solution verification to study the discretization error of computational models using a power law. Nonuniform mesh refinement is discussed alongside other pollutants that affect the robustness of the power law model. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is proposed as a robust strategy to address the uncertainty generated by nonuniform mesh refinement. An exploratory computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study of a 2D planar Poiseuille flow is conducted to determine if nonuniform mesh noise can be modeled with this MLE approach for more robust RE.

Weinmeister, Justin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000160090237↗

Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra: Modeling Archive

This dataset is a model archive of the paper Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra (in prep) to support a modeling study investigating how projected increases in Arctic temperature and precipitation will jointly influence hydrologic conditions in ice-rich tundra landscapes. With this dataset, this study is to address the research question: Will Arctic tundra landscapes become wetter or drier with increasing precipitation and temperature in the future when thaw-induced ground subsidence and associated microtopographic evolution are represented? The simulations focus on ice-wedge polygon tundra, a widespread form of ice-rich permafrost terrain that is highly sensitive to thaw-driven landscape change. This dataset contains model input and output data for four study watersheds in Alaska: Anaktuvuk, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Brooks Foothills, and Prudhoe Bay. Simulations were performed using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS, v1.5), a physics-rich integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model. For each watershed, ten modeling cases were performed representing two landscape evolution conditions (with subsidence and without subsidence) combined with five climate forcing scenarios derived from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5, SSP5 with precipitation trend, SSP2, SSP2 with precipitation trend, and SSP2 with double precipitation trend). Particularly, for each watershed under the forcing SSP2 with precipitation trend, there are two additional simulations considering spatially heterogeneous subsidence distributions: one assumes randomly distributed scaling and the other includes elevation dependent distribution scaling. These simulations span 1980–2099 and include spin-up runs (1980–2009) followed by transient projections (2010–2099). To facilitate reproducibility of simulations, all datasets are organized by watershed. For each study watershed, the dataset contains: (1) Pre-partitioned mesh files for 32-core modeling (.par.32.XX), located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh/basin; and also a non-partitioned mesh file (.exo) located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh; (2) Climate forcings corresponding to the five SSP scenarios (.h5), located in EACH_WATERSHED/data; (3) Final states (.h5) from column spin-up modeling used to initialize historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009, located in EACH_WATERSHED/PreSpinupHistorical; (4) Final states (.h5) of historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009 used to initialize projection runs, located in EACH_WATERSHED/Spinup_daymetERA5; (5) ATS modeling input files (.xml), located in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/inputfiles; (6) ATS modeling output files (.dat), located in in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/combined_obs; (7) For the Brooks Foothills watershed, additional spatial model outputs are provided (.h5) for selected years (2033 and 2093) used to generate spatial figures in this study, located in Brooksfoothills/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/results-WITH/WITHOUT_SUBSIDENCE-year2033/2093. All data files with suffix .h5 can be accessible through Python h5py, and all data files with suffix of .dat can be imported by Python pandas. Mesh file with .exo can be visualized through Paraview or read by Python netCDF. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION↗

Multi-resolution Arctic Shrub Cover Dataset Derived from UAS and Airborne SfM and LiDAR (2013-2025)

We synthesized 177 unoccupied aerial system flights and 77 airborne flights across the Arctic and created a multi-resolution benchmark data of low-to-tall shrub fractional cover leveraging Structure-from-Motion and Light Detection and Ranging. The resulting dataset covered a total of 1899 km2 across Alaska, Western Canada, Sweden, and Siberian Arctic, including key sites from the Oro Arctic to the High Arctic. The dataset is organized into 6 primary data collection directories (“Abisko,” “AWI,” “ERE,” “Fairbanks,” “NGEE,” “Toolik”), each containing site and flight subdirectories. Flight directories include shrub cover rasters (*.tifs) at 1 m, 5 m, and 30 m resolution, the canopy height model at 1 m resolution (*.tifs), and a bounding box *.kml file. For the AWI, Abisko, NGEE, and Fairbanks collections, we also include the GCC raster at 1 m resolution (*.tif). Files are organized by Collection > Site > Flight Name > Data Files. Flight rasters are in the local UTM zone and the .kml files are in the geographic coordinate system EPSG 4326. We also include a .csv file that details the source datasets for every flight. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

canopy height model↗

The 3D widgets for exploratory scientific visualization

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques are used to simulate flows of fluids like air or water around such objects as airplanes and automobiles. These techniques usually generate very large amounts of numerical data which are difficult to understand without using graphical scientific visualization techniques. There are a number of commercial scientific visualization applications available today which allow scientists to control visualization tools via textual and/or 2D user interfaces. However, these user interfaces are often difficult to use. We believe that 3D direct-manipulation techniques for interactively controlling visualization tools will provide opportunities for powerful and useful interfaces with which scientists can more effectively explore their datasets. A few systems have been developed which use these techniques. In this paper, we will present a variety of 3D interaction techniques for manipulating parameters of visualization tools used to explore CFD datasets, and discuss in detail various techniques for positioning tools in a 3D scene.

Herndon, Kenneth P.↗

Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation

The Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (MAPSS) is a graphical simulation environment designed for the development of advanced control algorithms and rapid testing of these algorithms on a generic computational model of a turbofan engine and its control system. MAPSS is a nonlinear, non-real-time simulation comprising a Component Level Model (CLM) module and a Controller-and-Actuator Dynamics (CAD) module. The CLM module simulates the dynamics of engine components at a sampling rate of 2,500 Hz. The controller submodule of the CAD module simulates a digital controller, which has a typical update rate of 50 Hz. The sampling rate for the actuators in the CAD module is the same as that of the CLM. MAPSS provides a graphical user interface that affords easy access to engine-operation, engine-health, and control parameters; is used to enter such input model parameters as power lever angle (PLA), Mach number, and altitude; and can be used to change controller and engine parameters. Output variables are selectable by the user. Output data as well as any changes to constants and other parameters can be saved and reloaded into the GUI later.

Parker, Khary I.↗

CFD modeling of near-wall combustion and unburned methane prediction in natural gas spark ignition engines

Natural gas-powered engines play a critical role in gas drilling, compression, and transmission sectors, but methane (CH 4 ) from engine combustion slip can be significant over their lifespan, contributing to atmospheric pollution and signaling reduced engine efficiency. Here, to address this challenge, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations offer valuable insights into the in-cylinder combustion process, enabling the optimization of combustion strategies and engine designs to minimize unburned CH 4 slip. This study aims to evaluate and improve combustion models for simulating the combustion process and predicting unburned CH 4 concentrations in natural gas spark-ignition (SI) engines, including engines that are part of combined reformer-engine systems. Specifically, the performance of two flamelet-based combustion models—the Extended Coherent Flame Model (ECFM) and the G-equation model—was assessed using experimental engine data collected under varying excess-air ratio (λ) conditions and fuel compositions, including natural gas and syngas blends. In addition, to enhance the predictive capabilities of the G-equation model, a flame-wall interaction (FWI) sub-model was integrated into its framework. The effects of its model parameters, such as quenching and influence distance, on combustion behavior and unburned methane predictions were analyzed in detail. The ECFM tended to predict delayed combustion phasing under diluted mixture conditions, resulting in overprediction of unburned CH 4 concentrations. In contrast, the G-equation model provided reasonable predictions of combustion pressure, while representing higher the CH 4 reduction rate across the operating condition compared to experimental data. Incorporating the FWI sub-model—with the quenching distance calculated based on a pressure-dependent relation (P -0.48 ) and a fixed influence distance of 1.5 mm—further improved the G-equation model’s accuracy in predicting CH 4 reduction rates without compromising its ability to simulate the combustion process.

Combustion model↗

Design and Development of a Model to Simulate 0-G Treadmill Running Using the European Space Agency's Subject Loading System

Develop a model that simulates a human running in 0 G using the European Space Agency s (ESA) Subject Loading System (SLS). The model provides ground reaction forces (GRF) based on speed and pull-down forces (PDF). DESIGN The theoretical basis for the Running Model was based on a simple spring-mass model. The dynamic properties of the spring-mass model express theoretical vertical GRF (GRFv) and shear GRF in the posterior-anterior direction (GRFsh) during running gait. ADAMs VIEW software was used to build the model, which has a pelvis, thigh segment, shank segment, and a spring foot (see Figure 1).the model s movement simulates the joint kinematics of a human running at Earth gravity with the aim of generating GRF data. DEVELOPMENT & VERIFICATION ESA provided parabolic flight data of subjects running while using the SLS, for further characterization of the model s GRF. Peak GRF data were fit to a linear regression line dependent on PDF and speed. Interpolation and extrapolation of the regression equation provided a theoretical data matrix, which is used to drive the model s motion equations. Verification of the model was conducted by running the model at 4 different speeds, with each speed accounting for 3 different PDF. The model s GRF data fell within a 1-standard-deviation boundary derived from the empirical ESA data. CONCLUSION The Running Model aids in conducting various simulations (potential scenarios include a fatigued runner or a powerful runner generating high loads at a fast cadence) to determine limitations for the T2 vibration isolation system (VIS) aboard the International Space Station. This model can predict how running with the ESA SLS affects the T2 VIS and may be used for other exercise analyses in the future.

Caldwell, E. C.↗

Reducing US Oil Dependence Using Simulation

People across the world are addicted to oil; as a result, the instability of oil prices and the shortage of oil reserves have influenced human behaviors and global businesses. Today, the United States makes up only 5% of the global population but consumes 25% of the. world total energy. Most of this energy is generated from fossil fuels in the form of electricity. The contribution of this paper is to examine the possibilities of replacing fossil fuel with renewable energies to generate electricity as well as to examine other methods to reduce oil and gas consumption. We propose a system dynamics model in an attempt to predict the future US dependence on fossil fuels by using renewable energy resources such as, nuclear, wind, solar, and hydro powers. Based on the findings of our model, the study expects to provide insights towards promising solutions of the oil dependency problem.

Ayoub, Fadi↗

CFD Simulation of Ignition Overpressure and Plume-Water Interaction in the SLS Scale Model Acoustics Test

The solid rocket boosters (SRBs) on the Space Launch System (SLS) generate powerful ignition overpressure (IOP) waves that can potentially damage the vehicle and surrounding ground structures. Based on historical Shuttle experience, the IOP will be mitigated by utilizing an IOP/Sound Suppression (SS) water system which sprays water in and around the SRB and RS-25 engine plumes. However, the complex multiphase physics of the resulting plume-water interaction can lead to undesirable effects, such as high velocity water spray onto the engine nozzles and SRB nozzle side loads. Prior to launch, insight into this environment can be achieved through scale model testing and predictive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling. The Scale Model Acoustic Test (SMAT) was conducted at Marshall Space Flight Center to provide the data necessary to develop the SLS liftoff acoustic environments by using a 5% scale SLS vehicle, fully integrated with a scaled IOP/SS water system, mobile launcher (ML), and tower. NASA engineers have put forth significant effort in validating the Loci/CHEM-Real Fluids multiphase CFD solver on a wet hold down test from the SMAT series. In this paper, the IOP acoustics and plume-water interactions predicted by the CFD model are compared and validated against the experiment, enabling relatively inexpensive, rapid turnaround for multiphase launch environment analyses to support future flights and design evolutions of SLS and other launch vehicles.

Computational Fluid Dynamics↗

Microreactor Automated Control System Test Bed Digital Architecture for Real-Time, Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulation

This work describes progress made towards the development of a real-time hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) test bed for non-nuclear testing of microreactor control schemes and failure modes. Non-nuclear testing is a crucial step in developing robust control algorithms for managing microreactor dynamics. The creation of an HIL simulation harnesses the realistic dynamics of physical analogue systems while additionally considering the challenges of variable communication delay. This collaborative effort between Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Idaho National Laboratory has resulted in a LabVIEW-based gRPC communication protocol which couples a TRANSFORM Modelica simulation of nuclear components to the ViBRANT physical hardware for realistic feedback and visual representation of control action in real time. A modular python client structure is developed to manage FMU-based Modelica simulation and real-time gRPC communication. HIL testing suggests that the modeled reactor with natural convection molten salt loop coolant configuration responds well to PID control of drum positioning for modulation of reactor core power, however, future efforts will be made to explore the added thermal inertial delay of system level control and downstream demand changes. Development of this platform with a generalized methodology provides a foundation for exploring a variety of reactor configurations and failure modes in rapid order to provide insight into the most effective avenues of study for further research and development.

McConnell, Jono [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000238984741)↗

Transition aerodynamics for 20-percent-scale VTOL unmanned aerial vehicle

An investigation was conducted in the Langley 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel to establish a transition data base for an unmanned aerial vehicle utilizing a powered-lift ejector system and to evaluate alterations to the ejector system for improved vehicle performance. The model used in this investigation was a 20-percent-scale, blended-body, arrow-wing configuration with integrated twin rectangular ejectors. The test was conducted from hover through transition conditions with variations in angle of attack, angle of sideslip, free-stream dynamic pressure, nozzle pressure ratio, and model ground height. Force and moment data along with extensive surface pressure data were obtained. A laser velocimeter technique for measuring inlet flow velocities was demonstrated at a single flow condition, and also a low order panel method was successfully used to numerically simulate the ejector inlet flow.

Kjerstad, Kevin J.↗

Hybrid model predictive control techniques for safety factor profile and stored energy regulation while incorporating NBI constraints

Abstract A novel hybrid Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm has been designed for simultaneous safety factor ( q ) profile and stored energy ( w ) control while incorporating the pulse-width-modulation constraints associated with the neutral beam injection (NBI) system. Regulation of the q -profile has been extensively shown to be a key factor for improved confinement as well as non-inductive sustainment of the plasma current. Simultaneous control of w is necessary to prevent the triggering of pressure-driven magnetohydrodynamic instabilities as the controller shapes the q profile. Conventional MPC schemes proposed for q -profile control have considered the NBI powers as continuous-time signals, ignoring the discrete-time nature of these actuators and leading in some cases to performance loss. The hybrid MPC scheme in this work has the capability of incorporating the discrete-time actuator dynamics as additional constraints. In nonlinear simulations, the proposed hybrid MPC scheme demonstrates improved q -profile+ w control performance for NSTX-U operating scenarios.

Physics↗

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions during Tropical Deep Convection: Evidence for the Importance of Free Tropospheric Aerosols

NASA's 2002 CRYSTAL-FACE field experiment focused on the formation and evolution of tropical cirrus cloud systems in southern Florida. Multiple aircraft extensively sampled cumulonimbus dynamical and microphysical properties, as well as characterizing ambient aerosol populations both inside and outside the full depth of the convective column. On July 18, unique measurements were taken when a powerful updraft was traversed directly by aircraft, providing a window into the primary source region of cumulonimbus anvil crystals. Observations of the updraft, entered at approximately l0 km altitude and -34 C, indicated more than 200 cloud particles per mL at vertical velocities exceeding 20 m/s and the presence of significant condensation nuclei and liquid water within the core. In this work, aerosol and cloud phase observations are integrated by simulating the updraft conditions using a large-eddy resolving model with 3 explicit multiphase microphysics, including treatment of size-resolved aerosol fields, aerosol activation and freezing, and evaporation of cloud particles back to the aerosol phase. Simulations were initialized with observed thermodynamic and aerosol size distributions profiles and convection was driven by surface fluxes assimilated from the ARPS forecast model. Model results are consistent with the conclusions that most crystals are homogeneously frozen droplets and that entrained free tropospheric aerosols may contribute a significant fraction of the crystals. Thus most anvil crystals appear to be formed aloft in updraft cores, well above cloud base. These conclusions are supported by observations of hydrometeor size distribution made while traversing the dore, as well as aerosol and cloud particle size distributions generally observed by aircraft below 4km and crystal properties generally observed by aircraft above 12km.

Ackerman, A.↗

The Advanced Geared Turbofan 30,000 lb f – electrified (AGTF30-e): A Virtual Testbed for Electrified Aircraft Propulsion Research

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion (EAP) is a growing topic of research with the potential to shape the future of commercial air travel. Here, detailed mathematical models serve an essential role in developing understanding and evaluating different technologies and design concepts. The Advanced Geared Turbofan 30,000 lb f – electrified (AGTF30-e) is an open-source software package developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The AGTF30-e provides a realistic propulsion system model of a conceptual electrified advanced geared turbofan engine suitable for propelling a single-aisle commercial aircraft. Included with the engine model is a controller that provides representative dynamic performance across a full operating envelop. The model is meant to facilitate research studies and promote collaboration. It is envisioned for use in concept exploration studies, technology impact studies, and dynamics and controls studies. The engine model can be run in various modes of operation including boost and power extraction. It also has options for other electrification features and methods for engine shaft and electric machine integration. This paper documents the AGTF30-e and illustrates its use through various simulation scenarios.

AGTF30-e↗

The Advanced Geared Turbofan 30,000 lbf – electrified (AGTF30-e): A Virtual Testbed for Electrified Aircraft Propulsion Research

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion (EAP) is a growing topic of research with the potential to shape the future of commercial air travel. Here, detailed mathematical models serve an essential role in developing understanding and evaluating different technologies and design concepts. The Advanced Geared Turbofan 30,000 lbf – electrified (AGTF30-e) is an open-source software package developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The AGTF30-e provides a realistic propulsion system model of a conceptual electrified advanced geared turbofan engine suitable for propelling a single-aisle commercial aircraft. Included with the engine model is a controller that provides representative dynamic performance across a full operating envelop. The model is meant to facilitate research studies and promote collaboration. It is envisioned for use in concept exploration studies, technology impact studies, and dynamics and controls studies. The engine model can be run in various modes of operation including boost and power extraction. It also has options for other electrification features and methods for engine shaft and electric machine integration. This paper documents the AGTF30-e and illustrates its use through various simulation scenarios.

AGTF30-e↗

Dynamical Downscaling of Earth System Model Data for Energy System Analysis

Assessing energy resources (e.g., solar, wind, and hydro) under future scenarios requires datasets with sufficient spatial and temporal detail to capture variability and extreme events. While global-scale Earth System Model (ESM) projections are widely used, their coarse resolution limits direct application to regional energy system analyses. Dynamical downscaling offers a robust approach to generate physically consistent, fine-scale datasets that better represent local atmospheric processes impacting energy resources. In this work, we present a two-stage approach for producing high-resolution historical and future projections over the contiguous United States (CONUS). First, we optimize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model configuration for energy-relevant variables - solar irradiance, wind speed, and precipitation - by conducting ERA5-driven simulations at 8-km and 28-km resolution. Multiple physics schemes and model configurations within the WRF are evaluated against observational datasets including the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and the Stage IV multi-radar/multi-sensor precipitation product for the CONUS domain. Using the best-performing configuration, we dynamically downscale MPI-ESM1-2-HR simulations for 2000-2060 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios at 4-km spatial and hourly temporal resolution. This presentation will provide a comprehensive analysis of the results from multiple numerical experiments and high-resolution ESM projections. In addition, we will discuss potential applications of our high-resolution datasets within the energy sector and outline future research avenues dedicated to evaluating how extreme weather events influence system performance and resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗