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At least 559 records · Page 31

Studies in geophysics: The Earth's electrical environment

The Earth is electrified. Between the surface and the outer reaches of the atmosphere, there is a global circuit that is maintained by worldwide thunderstorm activity and by upper atmospheric dynamo processes. The highest voltages approach a billion volts and are generated within thunderclouds, where lightning is a visual display of the cloud's electrical nature. The largest currents in the circuit, approaching a million amperes, are associated with the aurora. Because there have been significant advances in understanding many of the component parts of the global electric circuit (lightning, cloud electrification, electrical processes in specific atmospheric regions, and telluric currents), a principal research challenge is to understand how these components interact to shape the global circuit. Increased basic understanding in this field has many potential practical applications, including lightning protection, the design of advanced aircraft and spacecraft, and improvements in weather prediction.

Source record↗

An algorithm to estimate the heating budget from vertical hydrometeor profiles

A simple algorithm to estimate the latent heating of cloud systems from their vertical hydrometeor profiles is proposed. The derivation as well as the validation of the algorithm is based on output generated by a nonhydrostatic cloud model with parameterized microphysical processes. Mature and decaying stages of a GATE squall-type convective system have been tested. The algorithm-derived heating budget is in reasonable agreement with the budget predicted by the cloud model. The input to the proposed algoritm can be obtained from either a rain retrieval technique based on information from multichannel passive microwave signals or a kinematic cloud model based on information from Doppler radar wind fields and radar reflectivity patterns. Such an application would have significant implications for spaceborne remote sensing and the large-scale weather prediction data assimilation problem.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

The NASA aircraft icing research program

The objective of the NASA aircraft icing research program is to develop and make available to industry icing technology to support the needs and requirements for all-weather aircraft designs. Research is being done for both fixed wing and rotary wing applications. The NASA program emphasizes technology development in two areas, advanced ice protection concepts and icing simulation. Reviewed here are the computer code development/validation, icing wind tunnel testing, and icing flight testing efforts.

Shaw, Robert J.↗

Coherent systems in the terahertz frequency range: Elements, operation, and examples

The topics are presented in viewgraph form and include the following: terahertz coherent systems applications; a brief overview of selected components; radiometry and spectroscopy--astronomy; radiometry--aircraft all weather landing system; radiometry--atmospheric remote sensing; plasma diagnostics; communications; radar systems; and materials measurement and manufacturing process control.

Goldsmith, Paul F.↗

Moist wind relationships

The equations describing the temporal and spatial behavior of the kinematic moisture and heat flux are described. In these nonlinear equations, the contribution by diabatic processes to the large-scale flux is composed of two parts. One part is associated with a Rayleigh damping term while the other arises from temporal and spatial changes in the pressure gradient term. It was found that the influence of diabatic processes on large-scale moisture fluxes depends greatly on the degree of balance between forcing and damping terms in the governing kinematic flux equations. The existence of a near balance requires a reduction in the large-scale horizontal geostrophic wind speed. Based on an examination of the moisture flux equations, it is argued that reductions in the large-scale horizontal wind speed observed within major cumulus cloud systems help conserve large-scale moisture fluxes. The deviation of the wind from geostrophic conditions is easily estimated for a near balanced state. This wind modification induces secondary vertical circulations that contribute to convergence, creating or supporting long-lived mesoscale flows. We believe this process to be a major supporter of the mesoscale circulations observed in severe storms and squall lines. In the tropics the wind modification has an antitriptic relationship. These diagnostic findings suggest possible modifications to the wind field in the application of a cumulus parameterization, and may be important in diabatic initialization of numerical weather prediction models.

Raymond, William H.↗

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXVI, Part 16

Contents include the folowing: Experimental Study of Fe-, Co- and Ni-partitioning Between Forsterite and low-Co Fe,Ni-Alloys: Implications for Formation of Olivine Condensates in Equilibrium with Primitive Metal. Channels and Fan-like Features on Titan Surface Imaged by the Cassini RADAR. The Oxygen Isotope Similarity of the Earth and Moon: Source Region or Formation Process? The Mn-53-Cr-53 System in CAIs: An Update. Comparative Planetary Mineralogy: Valence State Partitioning of Cr, Fe, Ti, and V Among Crystallographic Sites in Olivine, Pyroxene, and Spinel from Planetary Basalts. CAI Thermal History Constraints from Spinel: Ti Zoning Profiles and Melilite Boundary Clinopyroxenes. Noble Gas Study of New Enstatite SaU 290 with High Solar Gases. A Marine Origin for the Meridiani Planum Landing Site? A Mechanism for the Formation and Evolution of Tharsis as a Consequence of Mantle Overturn: Large Scale Lateral Heterogeneity in a Stably Stratified Mantle. Endolithic Colonization of Fluid Inclusion Trails in Mineral Grains. Microbial Preservation in Sulfates in the Haughton Impact Structure Suggests Target in Search for Life on Mars. Ascraeus Mons Fan-shaped Deposit, Mars: Geological History and Volcano-Ice Interactions of a Cold-based Glacier. Weathering Pits in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: Insolation-induced Heating and Melting, and Applications to Mars. Mineralogy and Petrography of Lunar Mare Regolith Breccia Meteorite MET 01-210. Geological Mapping of Ganymede. A Quantitative Analysis of Plate Motion on Europa: Implications for the Role of Rigid vs. Nonrigid Behavior of the Lithosphere. Comparison of Terrestrial Morphology, Ejecta, and Sediment Transport of Small Craters: Volcanic and Impact Analogs to Mars. An Integrated Study of OMEGA-Identified Mineral Deposits in Eastern Hebes Chasma, Mars. Global Spectral and Compositional Diversity of Mars: A Test of CRISM Global Mapping with Mars Express OMEGA Data. On Origin of Sedna. Processing ISS Images of Titan s Surface. LA-ICP-MS Study of Trace Elements in the Chaunskij Metal.

Source record↗

A Terminal Area Icing Remote Sensing System

NASA and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) have developed an icing remote sensing technology that has demonstrated skill at detecting and classifying icing hazards in a vertical column above an instrumented ground station. This technology is now being extended to provide volumetric coverage surrounding an airport. With volumetric airport terminal area coverage, the resulting icing hazard information will be usable by aircrews, traffic control, and airline dispatch to make strategic and tactical decisions regarding routing when conditions are conducive to airframe icing. Building on the existing vertical pointing system, the new method for providing volumetric coverage will utilize cloud radar, microwave radiometry, and NEXRAD radar. This terminal area icing remote sensing system will use the data streams from these instruments to provide icing hazard classification along the defined approach paths into an airport. Strategies for comparison to in-situ instruments on aircraft and weather balloons for a planned NASA field test are discussed, as are possible future applications into the NextGen airspace system.

aircraft icing↗

Effects of Tunable Data Compression on Geophysical Products Retrieved from Surface Radar Observations with Applications to Spaceborne Meteorological Radars

This paper presents results and analyses of applying an international space data compression standard to weather radar measurements that can easily span 8 orders of magnitude and typically require a large storage capacity as well as significant bandwidth for transmission. By varying the degree of the data compression, we analyzed the non-linear response of models that relate measured radar reflectivity and/or Doppler spectra to the moments and properties of the particle size distribution characterizing clouds and precipitation. Preliminary results for the meteorologically important phenomena of clouds and light rain indicate that for a 0.5 dB calibration uncertainty, typical for the ground-based pulsed-Doppler 94 GHz (or 3.2 mm, W-band) weather radar used as a proxy for spaceborne radar in this study, a lossless compression ratio of only 1.2 is achievable. However, further analyses of the non-linear response of various models of rainfall rate, liquid water content and median volume diameter show that a lossy data compression ratio exceeding 15 is realizable. The exploratory analyses presented are relevant to future satellite missions, where the transmission bandwidth is premium and storage requirements of vast volumes of data, potentially problematic.

cloud properties↗

Zircon, Baddeleyite, and Reidite Found in Ries Crater Suevite

Introduction: Impact events can generate superheated impact melts and even vapor [1]. In the past decade, evidence of the high temperatures and high pressures of the impact process has been found in the impact melt from terrestrial craters (e.g., Mistastin Lake [2], Meteor Crater [3]) and even on the Moon [4–5]. Often, these studies involve zircon or zirconium-bearing phases. Zircon is a particularly useful mineral, due to its robustness and durability against weathering. It is used principally for chronology, but it has a multitude of geologic applications, including geothermometry and fingerprinting magma sources. Here we focus on its capability of recording impact conditions. Grains of zircon (ZrSiO4) are converted at high temperature and/or pressure during an impact event to reidite (a high-pressure polymorph of ZrSiO4) or to tetragonal-ZrO2 + SiO2 [6]. Reidite and tertragonal-ZrO2 leave identifying relicts in the rocks, markers of the high pressures and/or temperatures these rocks underwent. Ries Crater is a 26-km-diameter peak ring crater in southern Germany that formed approximately 15 Ma [7–9]. Ries is the type locality of the polymict impact breccia known as suevite. Here, we report a microanalytical study of suevite from the Ries impact structure. These analyses are used to inform our understanding of the pressure and temperature conditions involved in creating a polymict impact breccia such as suevite in a peak ring crater. Sample Description: The sample, denoted 16RS08, originates from Otting Quarry, at 48.8777° N, 10.7921° E, approximately 17 km from the center of the Ries Crater in Germany (approximately 4 km outside the crater rim). The material recorded in sample 16RS08 is therefore considered an outer suevite. The outer suevite is a discontinuous layer of polymict impact breccia that occurs outside the central ring of Ries, up to 22 km from the center of the crater [9]. Lithic clasts in the outer suevite consist primarily of crystalline basement rocks (gneiss, granite, amphibolite), with less than 5% of lithic clasts being overlying sedimentary rocks (limestone, sandstone, shale) [9]. The thin section studied contains variably shocked lithic and mineral clasts, impact glass, and interstitial minerals that make up the matrix of the breccia (Fig. 1) [9]. Methods: We used a Cameca SX100 electron probe microanalyzer (EPMA) located in the Kuiper Materials Imaging and Characterization Facility (KMICF) at the University of Arizona to obtain 15 elemental X-ray maps of 16RS08. We next used the JEOL 7900F SEM at the Astromaterials Research & Exploration Science (ARES) at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) to obtain electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) maps and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) maps of select portions of the section. The EBSD data were collected under beam conditions of 20 kV, and ~9 μA, with step sizes varying from 0.05 to 2 μm. Following EBSD data collection, we processed the data using AZtecCrystal and MTEX, a free MATLAB toolbox. Results: We used the elemental X-ray maps to identify the areas of interest in the section, particularly phosphates and Zr-bearing grains. These areas of interest were then targeted for follow up EBSD and EDS analyses. We have identified, through combined EBSD and EDS analysis, the presence of zircon, reidite, and monoclinic-ZrO2 (baddeleyite) in 16RS08. In 16RS08, we have found singular grains of zircon, zircon with a vermicular baddeleyite halo (Fig. 2a), and granular zircon with reidite (Fig. 2b). The different Zr-rich phases and their corresponding textures signifies that this sample underwent a broad spectrum of pressure and temperature conditions during the impact event. For example, zircons surrounded by a vermicular baddeleyite and SiO2 intergrowth (i.e., Fig. 2a) have been shown to preserve evidence of the extremely high temperatures of impact melt, upwards of 2370 °C [2, 6]. Similarly, reidite and granular zircon (i.e., Fig. 2b) have been shown to preserve evidence of high pressure, as the transition to reidite occurs >30 GPa [3, 6]. Future Work: Next, we will process the EBSD and EDS data for these Zr-rich grains, specifically looking for indicators of cubic- or tetragonal-ZrO2 in the baddeleyite remnants and of shock-precursors to the reidite. To further inform our work, we will also obtain BSE images of these grains using a Hitachi S-4800 SEM in KMICF at the University of Arizona, as well as geochemical spot analyses via EPMA. The data collected will be used to constrain the formation conditions of the Ries Crater outer suevite. Acknowledgments: We thank Ken Domanik and Jerry Chang for their support with data collection. This work was supported by a University of Arizona RII Core Facilities Pilot Program grant and start-up funds to JJB. TME thanks A. Cavosie and N. Timms for assistance during field sampling. We acknowledge support from NASA’s Planetary Science Research program for analysis performed at JSC. References: [1] Melosh H. J. (1989) Oxf. U. Press. [2] Timms et al. (2017) EPSL 477, 52–58. [3] Cavosie et al. (2016) Geology 44:9, 703–706. [4] White et al. (2020) Nature Astr. 4, 974–978. [5] Crow C. A. et al. (2017) GCA 202, 264–284. [6] Timms et al. (2017) Earth-Sci. Rev. 165, 185–202. [7] Schmieder M. et al. (2018) GCA 220, 146–157. [8] Schwarz W. H. et al. (2020) M&PS 55:2, 312–325. [9] Stöffler et al. (2013) M&PS 43:4, 515–589.

Zircon↗

Airborne Observations of Particle Density in High Ice Water Content (HWC) Cloud Systems

A series of airborne field campaigns has been conducted since 2014 to measure the microphysical properties of high ice-water content (HIWC) clouds in maritime mesoscale convective systems (MCS) and tropical storms. Two of these, the HIWC RADAR-2 campaign (2018) targeting cloud systems in the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean, and the HIWC-2022 campaign targeting cloud systems in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic Ocean, have been analyzed to investigate graupel encounters at typical jet aircraft cruise altitudes. In-situ cloud observations from these two campaigns confirmed results from the prior studies, indicating that high concentrations of small ice particles exist in areas of HIWC. However, in the 2022 campaign, 90% of the cloud regions with ice water content (IWC) above 2.0 g/m3 also contained significant amounts of graupel and/or frozen drops. Using a mass-size parameterization that accounts for both small ice and larger high-density particles, we show that the mass distributions in cloud regions above 2.0 g/m3 are often strongly bimodal, with the small particle mode containing roughly half of the collective cloud mass, and the graupel mode containing the other half. In contrast, HIWC cloud passes in a 2018 tropical cyclone contained less relative graupel mass than the MCS cloud systems of 2018 and 2022. We present two different methods of estimating particle mass for mixed populations of small-ice and graupel particles, one using a hybrid two-class approach, and another using a single-class approach that takes both particle size and shape metrics into account. Derived IWC using these methods are compared to bulk IWC measurements collected during the campaigns. We also show the relative occurrence of graupel at various IWC levels and discuss the potential application of these results in evaluating density-aware microphysical schemes in cloud and weather models.

Aircraft Icing↗

NASA’s WB-57F High Altitude Research Aircraft is Looking Up: A Flexible and Capable Heliophysics Platform for Coronal Observations During Total Solar Eclipses

NASA's WB-57F "Canberra" high altitude research aircraft is a unique airborne platform that serves a critical need in airborne science. Although the aircraft has been conventionally used for earth observation/remote sensing and in situ atmospheric sampling, research teams have begun to recognize the aircraft’s emerging role in heliophysics research. With the ability to operate at altitudes in excess of 60,000 feet and with a range of over 2,500 miles, the particular capabilities of the WB-57 are unparalleled by other aircraft in the government or commercial spaces. The Canberra has capacity to carry nearly 9,000 pounds of instrumentation across the aircraft, including modular payload areas in the belly, the nose, wing pods, and wing hatches. The WB-57 features a dedicated "person in the loop" sensor equipment operator, real-time high bandwidth data link between air and ground, and an on-board data network allowing interoperability between multiple systems and operator interfaces. The aircraft has a truly global reach, and has operated out of airfields all over the world with a minimal personnel footprint. The Program maintains a highly qualified engineering team that will work closely with customer requirements to optimize efficiency of payload installation and operation on the aircraft. NASA maintains its own airworthiness authority, allowing a bespoke "in house" approach to aircraft modifications and instrument integration. This often saves months of coordination and cost when compared with commercial options. On 8 April 2024, the WB-57 program executed a one-of-a-kind observation the corona over North America and provided a first-flight opportunity for several instruments that were historically strictly terrestrial. By integrating imagers, spectrometers, and ionosondes on the aircraft, research team partnerships with Southwest Research Institute, University of Hawai’i Institute for Astronomy, and Virginia Tech have demonstrated new and exciting applications for this venerable platform, were able to effectively eliminate the risk of adverse weather spoiling the data collection during totality, and reduce the amount of atmospheric interference in the collected spectral data.

Airborne Science↗

Pre-Launch Algorithms and Risk Reduction in Support of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper for GOES-R and Beyond

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a single channel, near-IR optical transient event detector, used to detect, locate and measure total lightning activity over the full-disk as part of a 3-axis stabilized, geostationary weather satellite system. The next generation NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series with a planned launch in 2014 will carry a GLM that will provide continuous day and night observations of lightning from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fully operational.The mission objectives for the GLM are to 1) provide continuous,full-disk lightning measurements for storm warning and Nowcasting, 2) provide early warning of tornadic activity, and 3) accumulate a long-term database to track decadal changes of lightning. The GLM owes its heritage to the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor (1997-Present) and the Optical Transient Detector (1995-2000), which were developed for the Earth Observing System and have produced a combined 13 year data record of global lightning activity. Instrument formulation studies were completed in March 2007 and the implementation phase to develop a prototype model and up to four flight units is expected to begin in latter part of the year. In parallel with the instrument development, a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2B algorithms and applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) sate]lite and regional test beds (e.g., Lightning Mapping Arrays in North Alabama and the Washington DC Metropolitan area) are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time lightning mapping data provided to selected National Weather Service forecast offices in Southern and Eastern Region are also improving our understanding of the application of these data in the severe storm warning process and help to accelerate the development of the pre-launch algorithms and Nowcasting applications. Abstract for the 3 rd Conference on Meteorological

Goodman, Steven↗

Pre-Launch Algorithms and Risk Reduction in Support of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper for GOES-R and Beyond

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a single channel, near-IR optical transient event detector, used to detect, locate and measure total lightning activity over the full-disk as part of a 3-axis stabilized, geostationary weather satellite system. The next generation NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series with a planned launch in 2014 will carry a GLM that will provide continuous day and night observations of lightning from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fully operational. The mission objectives for the GLM are to 1) provide continuous,full-disk lightning measurements for storm warning and Nowcasting, 2) provide early warning of tornado activity, and 3) accumulate a long-term database to track decadal changes of lightning. The GLM owes its heritage to the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor (1997-Present) and the Optical Transient Detector (1995-2000), which were developed for the Earth Observing System and have produced a combined 13 year data record of global lightning activity. Instrument formulation studies were completed in March 2007 and the implementation phase to develop a prototype model and up to four flight units is expected to begin in latter part of the year. In parallel with the instrument development, a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2B algorithms and applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional test beds (e.g., Lightning Mapping Arrays in North Alabama and the Washington DC Metropolitan area) are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time lightning mapping data provided to selected National Weather Service forecast offices in Southern and Eastern Region are also improving our understanding of the application of these data in the severe storm warning process and help to accelerate the development of the pre-launch algorithms and Nowcasting applications.

Goodman, Steven↗

High resolution assimilation of multiple satellite retrievals with emissions adjustment to improve air quality forecasting with WRF-Chem/DART

We will present results from medium (15km, 6hr cycling) and high (4 km, 6 hr cycling) spatiotemporal resolution applications of the WRF-Chem/DART ensemble, regional, air quality (AQ) forecast/assimilation system.The medium-resolution setup is applied to the Discover AQ/Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Experiment (FRAPPE) domain from July 14 to July 29, 2014. The high-resolution setup is applied to a Colorado domain from July 14 to July 29, 2020. For the FRAPPE application, we assimilate MOPITT CO; IASI CO;MODIS AOD; OMI O3, NO2; and AirNow CO, O3, NO2, SO2, PM10, and PM2.5. For the Colorado application, we assimilate the same MOPITT, MODIS, and AirNow constituents as in the FRAPPE application and TROPOMI CO, O3, NO2; and synthetic TEMPO O3and NO2. WRF-Chem/DART integrates the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model with on-line chemistry (WRF-Chem) into the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). It assimilates AirNow CO, O3, NO2, SO2, PM10, and PM2.5 measurements, MOPITT CO; IASI CO, O3; OMI O3, NO2, SO2; TROPOMI CO, O3, NO2, SO2; MODIS AOD; and synthetic TEMPO O3 and NO2 total/partial column and/or profile retrievals.WRF-Chem/DART uses: (i) the state augmentation method for adjusting emissions; (ii) state-space localization; and (iii) a near-real time scripting system. We use the medium-resolution FRAPPE application to demonstrate the incremental benefits from assimilating OMI observations with emissions adjustment and the high-resolution Colorado application to demonstrate the incremental benefits from assimilating syntheticTEMPO observations with emissions adjustment. For both applications, we expect that: (i) assimilating chemical observations will increaseAQ forecast skill; (ii) including emissions adjustment will increase forecast skill/predictability; and (iii) including assimilation of synthetic TEMPO observations will further increase forecast skill/predictability.

High resolution↗

Workstation-Based Real-Time Mesoscale Modeling Designed for Weather Support to Operations at the Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Station

This paper describes the capabilities and operational utility of a version of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) that has been developed to support operational weather forecasting at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS). The implementation of local, mesoscale modeling systems at KSC/CCAS is designed to provide detailed short-range (less than 24 h) forecasts of winds, clouds, and hazardous weather such as thunderstorms. Short-range forecasting is a challenge for daily operations, and manned and unmanned launches since KSC/CCAS is located in central Florida where the weather during the warm season is dominated by mesoscale circulations like the sea breeze. For this application, MASS has been modified to run on a Stardent 3000 workstation. Workstation-based, real-time numerical modeling requires a compromise between the requirement to run the system fast enough so that the output can be used before expiration balanced against the desire to improve the simulations by increasing resolution and using more detailed physical parameterizations. It is now feasible to run high-resolution mesoscale models such as MASS on local workstations to provide timely forecasts at a fraction of the cost required to run these models on mainframe supercomputers. MASS has been running in the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) at KSC/CCAS since January 1994 for the purpose of system evaluation. In March 1995, the AMU began sending real-time MASS output to the forecasters and meteorologists at CCAS, Spaceflight Meteorology Group (Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas), and the National Weather Service (Melbourne, Florida). However, MASS is not yet an operational system. The final decision whether to transition MASS for operational use will depend on a combination of forecaster feedback, the AMU's final evaluation results, and the life-cycle costs of the operational system.

Manobianco, John↗

Spatial Variations in Crop Growing Seasons Pivotal to Reproduce Global Fluctuations in Maize and Wheat Yields

Testing our understanding of crop yield responses to weather fluctuations at global scale is notoriously hampered by limited information about underlying management conditions, such as cultivar selection or fertilizer application. Here, we demonstrate that accounting for observed spatial variations in growing seasons increases the variance in reported national maize and wheat yield anomalies that can be explained by process-based model simulations from 34 to 58% and 47 to 54% across the 10 most weather-sensitive main producers, respectively. For maize, the increase in explanatory power is similar to the increase achieved by accounting for water stress, as compared to simulations assuming perfect water supply in both rainfed and irrigated agriculture. Representing water availability constraints in irrigation is of second-order importance. We improve the model’s explanatory power by better representing crops’ exposure to observed weather conditions, without modifying the weather response itself. This growing season adjustment now allows for a close reproduction of heat wave and drought impacts on crop yields.

Maize↗

Constraining the Physical Properties of Stellar Coronal Mass Ejections with Coronal Dimming: Application to Far-ultraviolet Data of є Eridani

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are a prominent contributor to solar system space weather and might have impacted the Sun's early angular momentum evolution. A signal diagnostic of CMEs on the Sun is coronal dimming: a drop in coronal emission, tied to the mass of the CME, that is the direct result of removing emitting plasma from the corona. We present the results of a coronal dimming analysis of Fe XII 1349 Å and Fe XXI 1354 Å emission from ϵ Eridani ( ϵ Eri), a young K2 dwarf, with archival far-ultraviolet observations by the Hubble Space Telescope's Cosmic Origins Spectrograph. Following a flare in 2015 February, ϵ Eri's Fe XXI emission declined by 81 ± 5%. Although enticing, a scant 3.8 minutes of preflare observations allows for the possibility that the Fe XXI decline was the decay of an earlier, unseen flare. Dimming nondetections following each of three prominent flares constrain the possible mass of ejected Fe XII-emitting (1 MK) plasma to less than a few × 10 15 g. This implies that CMEs ejecting this much or more 1 MK plasma occur less than a few times per day on ϵ Eri. On the Sun, 10 15 g CMEs occur once every few days. For Eri, the mass-loss rate due to CME-ejected 1 MK plasma could be < 0.6 Ṁ Ꙩ well below the star's estimated 30 Ṁ Ꙩ mass-loss rate (wind + CMEs). The order-of-magnitude formalism we developed for these mass estimates can be broadly applied to coronal dimming observations of any star.

Stellar coronal mass ejections↗

A Physical Validation Program for the GPM Mission

The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late 2007 - early 2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycling. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. A major requirement before the retrieved rainfall information generated by the GPM mission can be used effectively by prognostic models to improve weather forecasts, hydrometeorological forecasts, and climate model reanalysis simulations is a capability to quantify the error characteristics of the retrievals. A solution for this problem has been upheld in past precipitation missions because of the lack of suitable error modeling systems incorporated into the validation programs and data distribution systems. An overview of how NASA intends to overcome this problem for the GPM mission using a physically-based error modeling approach within a multi-faceted validation program is described. The solution is to first identify specific user requirements and then determine the most stringent of these requirements that embodies all essential error characterization information needed by the entire user community. In the context of NASA s scientific agenda for the GPM mission, the most stringent user requirement is found within the data assimilation community. The fundamental theory of data assimilation vis-a-vis ingesting satellite precipitation information into the pre-forecast initializations is based on quantifying the conditional bias and precision errors of individual rain retrievals, and the space-time structure of the precision error (i.e., the spatial-temporal error covariance). By generating the hardware and software capability to produce this information in a near real-time fashion, and to couple the derived quantitative error properties to the actual retrieved rainrates, all key validation users can be satisfied. The talk will describe the essential components of the hardware and software systems needed to generate such near real-time error properties, as well as the various paradigm shifts needed within the validation community to produce a validation program relevant to the precipitation user community.

Smith, Eric A.↗