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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Exclusive dielectron production in ultraperipheral Pb+Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}}$ = 5.02 TeV with ATLAS

Exclusive production of dielectron pairs, γγ → e + e – , is studied using $\mathcal{L}_{int}$ = 1.72 nb –1 of data from ultraperipheral collisions of lead nuclei at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The process of interest proceeds via photon–photon interactions in the strong electromagnetic fields of relativistic lead nuclei. Dielectron production is measured in the fiducial region defined by following requirements: electron transverse momentum $p^{e}_{T}$ > 2.5 GeV, absolute electron pseudorapidity |η e | < 2.5, dielectron invariant mass m ee > 5 GeV, and dielectron transverse momentum $p^{ee}_{T}$ < 2 GeV. Differential cross-sections are measured as a function of m ee , average $p^{e}_{T}$, absolute dielectron rapidity |y ee |, and scattering angle in the dielectron rest frame, |cos θ*|, in the inclusive sample, and also with a requirement of no activity in the forward direction. The total integrated fiducial cross-section is measured to be 215 ± 1 (stat) $^{+23}_{-20}$ (syst.) ± 4 (lumi.) μ b. Within experimental uncertainties the measured integrated cross-section is in good agreement with the QED predictions from the Monte Carlo programs STARLIGHT and SUPERCHIC, confirming the broad features of the initial photon fluxes. The differential cross-sections show systematic differences from these predictions which are more pronounced at high |y ee | and |cos θ*| values.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of the top-quark pole mass in dileptonic $t\overline{t}$ + 1-jet events at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the ATLAS experiment

A measurement of the top-quark pole mass $m$$^{pole}_{t}$ is presented in $t\bar{t}$ events with an additional jet, $t\bar{t}$+ 1-jet, produced in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13 TeV. The data sample, recorded with the ATLAS experiment during Run 2 of the LHC, corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb −1 . Events with one electron and one muon of opposite electric charge in the final state are selected to measure the $t\bar{t}$ + 1-jet differential cross-section as a function of the inverse of the invariant mass of the $t\bar{t}$ + 1-jet system. Iterative Bayesian Unfolding is used to correct the data to enable comparison with fixed-order calculations at next-to-leading-order accuracy in the strong coupling. The process pp → $t\bar{t}$j(2 → 3), where top quarks are taken as stable particles, and the process pp → $b\bar{b}$l + vl – $\overline{ν}$j (2 → 7), which includes top-quark decays to the dilepton final state and off-shell effects, are considered. The top-quark mass is extracted using a χ 2 fit of the unfolded normalized differential cross-section distribution. The results obtained with the 2 → 3 and 2 → 7 calculations are compatible within theoretical uncertainties, providing an important consistency check.

Hadron-Hadron Scattering↗
DOE OSTI2025

A hybrid numerical and machine learning framework for evaluating the performance of a 780 cm 2 aqueous organic redox flow battery

Aqueous organic redox flow battery (AORFB) is a promising cost-competitive technology for large-scale energy storage. Among existing work, the dihydroxyphenazine (DHP)-based AORFB has demonstrated high energy density and low capacity degradation in 10 cm2 cells during lab tests. However, its commercial-scale performance in more complex environments remains unknown, posing a barrier for commercialization. To address this gap, this work presents a comprehensive performance evaluation of a 780 cm 2 DHP-based AORFB by combining physics-based numerical model, machine learning (ML)-based surrogate models, and ML-derived sensitivity quantification. Specifically, we first select 12 key battery parameters that include 10 physicochemical quantities and 2 operation quantities, then select 6 performance metrics that include energy efficiency (EE), discharging capacity, charging energy, and power losses due to concentration, activation, and ohmic over-potentials. With such selection, 12800 combinations of the 12 parameters are subsequently generated using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. These combinations, together with 38 pre-defined State of Charge, are then integrated to a validated AORFB model developed in COMSOL to compute the performance metrics. With both input parameters and performance metrics, 60 deep neural network (DNN) surrogate models are then trained to approximate the relationship between the 10 physicochemical quantities and 6 performance metrics at each flow rate and current density. Sensitivity scores are then calculated based on the DNN models. Two additional sensitivity analysis tools, i.e., MARS, and SHAP, are also used to cross-validate the sensitivity scores from the DNN. The results demonstrate that 1) the standard potential ranks the first in controlling EE and charging energy, 2) the membrane conductivity is most critical for power loss and EE, and 3) specific area and reaction rate control activation power loss.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Reduced Order Model for Cost and Emission Assessment of a Pyrolysis System

Biomass pyrolysis is a promising approach for producing economic and environmentally-friendly fuels and bioproducts. Biomass pyrolysis experiments show that feedstock properties have a significant impact on product yields and composition. Scientists are developing detailed chemical reaction mechanisms to capture the relationships between biomass composition and pyrolysis yields. These mechanisms can be computationally intensive. In this study, we investigate the use of a machine learning reduced order model (ROM) for assessing the costs and emissions of a pyrolysis biorefinery. Here, we developed a Kriging-based ROM to predict pyrolysis yields of 314 feedstock samples based on the results of a detailed chemical kinetic pyrolysis mechanism. The ROM is integrated into a chemical process model for calculating mass and energy yields in a commercial-scale (2000 tonne/day) biorefinery. The ROM estimated biofuel yields of 65 to 130 gallons per ton of dry biomass. This results in biofuel minimum fuel-selling prices of $2.62 to $5.43 per gallon and emissions of -13.62 to 145 kg of CO 2 per MJ. The ROM achieved an average mean square error of 1.8e-20 and a mean absolute error of 0.53%. These results suggest that ROMs can facilitate rapid feedstock screening for biorefinery systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The genomic and epigenomic evolutionary history of papillary renal cell carcinomas

Intratumor heterogeneity (ITH) and tumor evolution have been well described for clear cell renal cell carcinomas (ccRCC), but they are less studied for other kidney cancer subtypes. Here we investigate ITH and clonal evolution of papillary renal cell carcinoma (pRCC) and rarer kidney cancer subtypes, integrating whole-genome sequencing and DNA methylation data. In 29 tumors, up to 10 samples from the center to the periphery of each tumor, and metastatic samples in 2 cases, enable phylogenetic analysis of spatial features of clonal expansion, which shows congruent patterns of genomic and epigenomic evolution. In contrast to previous studies of ccRCC, in pRCC, driver gene mutations and most arm-level somatic copy number alterations (SCNAs) are clonal. These findings suggest that a single biopsy would be sufficient to identify the important genetic drivers and that targeting large-scale SCNAs may improve pRCC treatment, which is currently poor. While type 1 pRCC displays near absence of structural variants (SVs), the more aggressive type 2 pRCC and the rarer subtypes have numerous SVs, which should be pursued for prognostic significance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

β -Ga 2 O 3 MESFETs with insulating Mg-doped buffer grown by plasma-assisted molecular beam epitaxy

In this work, we develop in situ Mg doping techniques in plasma-assisted molecular beam epitaxy (PAMBE) of β -Ga 2 O 3 to compensate Si dopants at the substrate epilayer growth interface and eliminate parasitic leakage paths. Both abrupt and uniform Mg doping profiles over a wide range of concentrations were achieved in β -Ga 2 O 3 epilayers grown by PAMBE. Capacitance–voltage characteristics of Si and Mg co-doped samples confirmed the compensating effect of the Mg dopants. Mg delta-doping was then integrated into a β -Ga 2 O 3 metal-semiconductor field effect transistor structure and shown to be effective in eliminating source leakage. In conclusion, the results presented here show that Mg doping is a promising way to engineer insulating buffer layers for β -Ga 2 O 3 lateral devices grown by PAMBE.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Azimuthal Correlations within Exclusive Dijets with Large Momentum Transfer in Photon-Lead Collisions

The structure of nucleons is multidimensional and depends on the transverse momenta, spatial geometry, and polarization of the constituent partons. Such a structure can be studied using high-energy photons produced in ultraperipheral heavy-ion collisions. The first measurement of the azimuthal angular correlations of exclusively produced events with two jets in photon-lead interactions at large momentum transfer is presented, a process that is considered to be sensitive to the underlying nuclear gluon polarization. This study uses a data sample of ultraperipheral lead-lead collisions at s NN = 5.02 TeV , corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 0.38 nb - 1 , collected with the CMS experiment at the LHC. The measured second harmonic of the correlation between the sum and difference of the two jet transverse momentum vectors is found to be positive, and rising, as the dijet transverse momentum increases. A well-tuned model that has been successful at describing a wide range of proton scattering data from the HERA experiments fails to describe the observed correlations, suggesting the presence of gluon polarization effects.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A High-Speed, High-Resolution Transition Edge Sensor Spectrometer for Soft X-Rays at the Advanced Photon Source

This project explores the design and development of a transition edge sensor (TES) spectrometer for resonant soft X-ray scattering (RSXS) measurements developed in collaboration between Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Soft X-ray scattering is a powerful technique for studying the electronic and magnetic properties of materials on a microscopic level. However, the lack of high-performance soft X-ray spectrometers has limited the potential of this technique. TES spectrometers have the potential to overcome these limitations due to their high energy resolution, high efficiency, and broad energy range. This project aims to optimize the design of a TES spectrometer for RSXS measurements and more generally soft X-ray spectroscopy at the Advanced Photon Source (APS) 29-ID, leading to improved understanding of advanced materials. We will present a detailed description of the instrument design and implementation. The spectrometer consists of a large array of approximately 250 high-speed and high-resolution pixels. The pixels have saturation energies of approximately 1 keV, sub-ms pulse duration and energy resolution of approximately 1 eV. The array is read out using microwave multiplexing chips with MHz bandwidth per channel, enabling efficient data throughput. To facilitate measurement of samples in situ under ultra-high vacuum conditions at the beamline, the spectrometer is integrated with an approximately 1 m long snout.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reassessing the MCNP Random Number Generator

Random number generators are integral components to Monte Carlo codes. They provide the pseudorandom number sequence used to actually sample the distributions of interest. As a result, they are one of the most important components to the software. The current recommended MCNP random number generator is a 63-bit linear congruential generator (LCG). This generator is quite fast, but it has some drawbacks. First, it only has a period of 2 63 . Due to the necessarily non-optimal usage of random numbers to ensure parallel reproducibility, this amount is too few to guarantee random number sequences are not reused in all configurations the code runs under. As simulation size increases, users will need to be aware of the limitations of the generator and tune configuration variables to best suit their simulations, or they will need to assume that reuse is not negatively affecting their answers. Neither of these are optimal. Second, small LCGs are fairly weak in bit generation quality, and this can have an unknown impact on the quality of the simulation. This paper is an investigation into whether or not more modern random number generators can supersede the current ones. The goal is to find a generator that is similar or superior in speed to the LCGs, has a state space large enough to make strong guarantees about random number reuse, and passes all modern random number test suites. If such a generator is found, it would eliminate the need for the user to even be aware of the limitations of the random number generator and would simplify the use of the code. This paper will be broken into several parts. Sec. 2 will discuss the evolution of the random number generator within the MCNP code. Sec. 3 will go over what a Monte Carlo code needs from a generator to be reproducible and portable and how the current generator behaves in that light. Sec. 4 goes through how each generator was tested. Finally, Sec. 5 will discuss improvements that could be made to the code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the performance of a high resolution SLIM IM module integrated with an Agilent 6560 IM-QTOF MS

Integrate a combined Structures of Lossless Ion Manipulations (SLIM) module that incorporates both constant (not time-varying) field (CF) and oscillatory (time-varying) field (OF) IM separation stages into an Agilent 6560 IM-QTOF mass spectrometer system. Once the SLIM module has been integrated into the Agilent system, its performance will be evaluated using a variety of different samples.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating large scale aqueous organic redox flow battery performance with a hybrid numerical and machine learning framework

Aqueous organic redox flow battery (AORFB) is a promising cost-competitive technology for large-scale energy storage. Among existing work, the dihydroxyphenazine (DHP)-based AORFB has demonstrated high energy density and low-capacity degradation in 10 cm$^2$ cells during lab tests. However, its commercial-scale performance in more complex environments remains unknown, posing a barrier to commercialization. To address this gap, this work presents a comprehensive performance evaluation of a 780 cm$^2$ DHP-based AORFB by combining a physics-based numerical model, machine learning (ML)-based surrogate models, and ML-derived sensitivity quantification. Specifically, we first select 12 key battery parameters that include 10 physicochemical and 2 operation quantities, then select 6 performance metrics that include energy efficiency (EE), discharging capacity, charging energy, and power losses due to concentration, activation, and ohmic over-potentials. With such selection, 12800 combinations of the 12 parameters are subsequently generated using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. Such combinations, together with 38 pre-defined State of Charge, are then integrated to a validated AORFB model developed in COMSOL to compute the performance metrics. With both input parameters and performance metrics, 60 deep neural network (DNN) surrogate models are then trained to approximate the relationship between the 10 physicochemical quantities and 6 performance metrics at each flow rate and current density. Sensitivity scores are then calculated based on the DNN models. Two additional sensitivity analysis tools, i.e., MARS, and SHAP, are also used to cross-validate the sensitivity scores from the DNN. The results demonstrate that 1) the standard potential ranks first in controlling EE and charging energy, 2) the membrane conductivity is most critical for power loss and EE, and 3) specific area and reaction rate control activation power loss.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Automated integration gate selection for Gaussian mixture model pulse shape discrimination

Pulse shapes differ between neutron and gamma particles when measured with detector devices employing pulse shape discriminating (PSD) scintillators. Digitized waveforms can be used in detection systems to perform pulse shape discrimination for this application. Prior Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) methods require access to the pulse full-waveform. Reducing the waveform to a smaller set of combined samples reduces computational cost while affecting PSD performance. In this work, we develop a method for selecting the best performing combination of integration gates, or contiguous summed segments of the digitized pulse for PSD. The method uses a discrimination score based on the GMM PSD approach. Furthermore, the final selection is performed using Bayesian Optimization. PSD detection results are compared with varying numbers of selected gates on time-of-flight (TOF) data. This method can be used to fully automate the selection of gates in an unsupervised (without ground truth labels) setting.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning model inputs, outputs, and scripts associated with “Artificial intelligence-guided iterations between observations and modeling significantly improve environmental predictions”

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the manuscript “Artificial intelligence-guided iterations between observations and modeling significantly improve environmental predictions” (Malhotra et al., in prep). This effort was designed following ICON (integrated, coordinated, open, and networked) principles to facilitate a model-experiment (ModEx) iteration approach, leveraging crowdsourced sampling across the contiguous United States (CONUS). New machine learning models were created every month to guide sampling locations. Data from the resulting samples were used to test and rebuild the machine learning models for the next round of sampling guidance. Associated sediment and water geochemistry and in situ sensor data can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1923689, https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1729719, and https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1603775. This data package is associated with two GitHub repositories found at https://github.com/parallelworks/dynamic-learning-rivers and https://github.com/WHONDRS-Hub/ICON-ModEx_Open_Manuscript. In addition to this readme, this data package also includes two file-level metadata (FLMD) files that describes each file and two data dictionaries (DD) that describe all column/row headers and variable definitions. This data package consists of two main folders (1) dynamic-learning-rivers and (2) ICON-ModEx_Open_Manuscript which contain snapshots of the associated GitHub repositories. The input data, output data, and machine learning models used to guide sampling locations are within dynamic-learning-rivers. The folder is organized into five top-level directories: (1) “input_data” holds the training data for the ML models; (2) “ml_models” holds machine learning (ML) models trained on the data in “input_data”; (3) “examples” contains files for direct experimentation with the machine learning model, including scripts for setting up “hindcast” run; (4) “scripts” contains data preprocessing and postprocessing scripts and intermediate results specific to this data set that bookend the ML workflow; and (5) “output_data” holds the overall results of the ML model on that branch. Each trained ML model resides on its own branch in the repository; this means that inputs and outputs can be different branch-to-branch. There is also one hidden directory “.github/workflows”. This hidden directory contains information for how to run the ML workflow as an end-to-end automated GitHub Action but it is not needed for reusing the ML models archived here. Please see the top-level README.md in the GitHub repository for more details on the automation. The scripts and data used to create figures in the manuscript are within ICON-ModEx_Open_Manuscript. The folder is organized into four folders which contain the scripts, data, and pdf for each figure. Within the “fig-model-score-evolution” folder, there is a folder called “intermediate_branch_data” which contains some intermediate files pulled from dynamic-learning-rivers and reorganized to easily integrate into the workflows. NOTE: THIS FOLDER INCLUDES THE FILES AT THE POINT OF PAPER SUBMISSION. IT WILL BE UPDATED ONCE THE PAPER IS ACCEPTED WITH ANY REVISIONS AND WILL INCLUDE A DD/FLMD AT THAT POINT. We thank the United States Forest Service, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Washington Department of Natural Resources, Cowiche Canyon Conservatory, Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission (Scientific Research Permit #210901), and the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation for access to field locations where the samples labeled “SSS” were collected. We also thank the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview. WHONDRS consortium members were asked to provide any acknowledgments for the collection of samples labeled “CM” and the following is a list of acknowledgments that were submitted with their corresponding Site IDs: (MART) Research activities were conducted in part on the Wind River Experimental Forest within the Gifford Pinchot National Forest; (MP- 100379) Philadelphia is part of Lenapehoking, the ancestral homelands of the Lenape peoples; (MP-102398) Land surveyed is the ancestral homelands of the Nookhose'iinenno (Arapaho), Tsis tsis'tas (Cheyenne), and Nuuchu (Ute); (MP-100749 and MP- 100747) Georgia Coastal Ecosystem LTER, OCE-1832178; (SP-70 and SP-72) Eastern Shoshone, Shoshone-Bannock; (MP- 102944) Funded by Oregon Watershed Enhancement Board. On the traditional lands of the Confederated Tribes of the Siletz, Confederated Tribes of the Grand Rhonde, and the Clatsop-Nehalem Confederated Tribe; (MP- 100607) Holiday Creek is located on the traditional territory of the Monacan Indian Nation; (SP-45) Lafayette Blue Springs State Park; (MP-102420) NSF DEB-2016749; (MP-100019) New Hampshire Agriculture Experiment Station; (SP-35) Rayonier (land owner; https://www.rayonier.com/); (MP- 101276) US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research, Subsurface Biogeochemical Research, Watershed Dynamics and Evolution SFA at ORNL; (MP- 103224) Watershed Dynamics and Evolution SFA at ORNL; (MP- 101584) Traditional lands of the Oceti Sakowin (Dakota, Lakota, Nakoda) and Anishinaabe Peoples.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Success Using A Granular-Activated Carbon Filtration Swab to Rehabilitate Westbay{sup R} Multi-level Groundwater Monitoring Wells at the INL - 20544

In November 2015, tetrachloroethylene (PCE) was discovered in groundwater samples collected from a Westbay{sup R} multi-level groundwater monitoring well at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL).a Subsequent investigation determined that PCE was not present in the groundwater. The detected PCE was instead due to inadvertent contamination of the internal tubing fluid in the Westbay well-monitoring system, which is isolated from the surrounding groundwater. Further investigation showed that three of the 11 Westbay wells at the INL contained PCE-contaminated tubing fluid at concentrations above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's maximum contaminant level for drinking water (5 μg/L). Loose sediment at the bottom of some Westbay wells was also found to contain PCE; the three wells were then identified for rehabilitation as part of the INL well maintenance program. The unique construction of the Westbay wells - i.e., the small diameter (5.72 cm [2.25 in.]) and the depths of the tubing fluid ranging from 144.8 to 419 m (475 to 1,376 ft) below ground surface - posed unique challenges to the rehabilitation. Because the tubing fluid provides structural integrity, the fluid cannot be removed and then replaced without damaging the integrity of the Westbay well. Additionally, the small diameter of the systems and the associated depths limit the availability of equipment that can be used for the rehabilitation. After an evaluation of potential methods, it was determined that the use of an in-well, custom-fabricated, granular-activated-carbon filtration swab deployed via a wire line would provide the safest and most cost-effective method for rehabilitation. Westbay well rehabilitation started at well MIDDLE-2051 in late June 2018 and paused in December 2018 for the season. The PCE concentration in the tubing fluid at MIDDLE-2051 was initially reduced to a maximum concentration of 3.81 μg/L from a maximum of 642 μg/L, while the concentration of PCE in the sediment had been reduced from 5,360 to 2,270 μg/kg. Sampling was performed at MIDDLE-2051 again in August 2019, and the tubing fluid increased to a maximum concentration of 45.4 μg/L, while the concentration in the sediment decreased further to 1,890 μg/kg due to desorption of PCE from the sediment to the tubing fluid. Rehabilitation resumed at well MIDDLE-2050A in late August 2019, and the PCE concentration in the tubing fluid had been reduced to a maximum concentration of 19.0 μg/L. Although the method has been shown to be time-consuming, it has proven to be effective and safe for personnel performing the work and to the integrity of the well. Future sample data results at all wells will help determine an estimated completion of the rehabilitation. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Optimization and Uncertainty Quantification of Natrium-based Nuclear-Renewable Energy Systems for Flexible Power Applications in Deregulated Markets

Rapid integration of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) has made modeling and stochastic optimization of hybrid energy systems crucial for studying their long-term performance and viability. However, most studies have focused on just historical data, which may be unreliable for capturing short-term fluctuations, rare events, and long-term patterns of energy demand, price, and the variability of renewable energy sources. For this study, optimal synthetic time series models were developed using Wasserstein distance. The models were validated by comparing the key statistical measures against those of the historical data. They were then used to optimize the integrated Natrium-style advanced energy systems and their long-term (30 years) economics. The stochastic model performs bi-level optimization to find the optimal sizes for the balance of plant and thermal energy storage, while also optimizing energy dispatch to achieve the maximum net present value. In studies of two deregulated markets (California ISO and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas), the integrated Natrium-style system performed better in CAISO than in ERCOT, given higher and more consistent electricity prices during peak-demand periods. The potentially enlarged cost associated with the variable operation and maintenance of the TES system also plays a significant role in driving the system sizing, thus its impacts on the system are investigated in detail through comparison against a baseline case. The study also finds that the bi-level optimization results based on stochastic gradient descent closely match the grid search results. The uncertainty quantification of the stochastic signals provides further NPV-related insights and probability distributions for the case studies. The normal standard error of the mean of NPV for the case with and without TES VOM for CAISO were found to be 7.73M (plus-minus sign) 1.09M USD and 104.99M (plus-minus sign) 1.25M USD, respectively based on a 95% confidence. Given the relatively small NPV variance based on 150 samples, the analysis affords the most robust possible prediction of the techno-economic performance of the integrated Natrium-style energy systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Learning the temporal evolution of multivariate densities via normalizing flows

In this work, we propose a method to learn multivariate probability distributions using sample path data from stochastic differential equations. Specifically, we consider temporally evolving probability distributions (e.g., those produced by integrating local or nonlocal Fokker–Planck equations). Here, we analyze this evolution through machine learning assisted construction of a time-dependent mapping that takes a reference distribution (say, a Gaussian) to each and every instance of our evolving distribution. If the reference distribution is the initial condition of a Fokker–Planck equation, what we learn is the time-T map of the corresponding solution. Specifically, the learned map is a multivariate normalizing flow that deforms the support of the reference density to the support of each and every density snapshot in time. We demonstrate that this approach can approximate probability density function evolutions in time from observed sampled data for systems driven by both Brownian and Lévy noise. We present examples with two- and three-dimensional, uni- and multimodal distributions to validate the method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) Model: Overview and Validation of V1.0 [Slides]

This presentation documents the approaches and methods used in the Transportation Energy & Mobility Pathway Options™ (TEMPO) model to evaluate passenger and freight demand for transportation and mobility services, project vehicle ownership and technology adoption decisions, and determine transport mode choices to derive scenarios of future energy use and emissions. TEMPO is an all-inclusive transportation demand model that covers the entire United States, with an implicit spatial resolution and an hourly temporal resolution that allows for generating time-resolved energy use profiles to assess multisectoral integration aspects. Key features of the TEMPO model include the ability to perform endogenous out-of-sample forecasting to extrapolate recent emerging trends and analyze impacts of disruptive technological breakthroughs and behavioral changes. TEMPO employs an innovative representation of passenger mobility demand stemming from household-level decisions that determine vehicle adoption, ownership, and use based on sociodemographics (e.g., income, household composition), technology attributes (e.g., travel cost, time), geography (e.g., urban, suburban, rural) and population-specific multiday mobility and travel requirements. This representation enables a more forward-looking perspective on the use of new mobility options and the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, as well as a more accurate representation of their energy usage profiles than previous modeling approaches. A comparison with the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook showcases the ability of TEMPO to accurately replicate widely accepted projections by representing the key elements of the entire transportation sector at the appropriate level of resolution. TEMPO is intended to generate future scenarios of technology adoption, energy use, and emissions in the transportation sector to compare alternatives, inform decision makers, and assess integration with energy infrastructure and supply systems at an appropriate spatiotemporal resolution.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗