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NASA NTRS2020

Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Hindcast Skill Assessment of Ridging Events Related to Drought Over the Western United States

Persistent atmospheric ridging events centered near the western United States are associated with widespread precipitation deficits and meteorological drought. Due to the relatively low skill of- dynamical models in forecasting precipitation on subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) time scales across this region, forecasts of ridging are explored in this study as a potential bridge for early warning drought prediction. To assess skill, we evaluate deterministic and probabilistic S2S hindcasts (out to 6 week lead time) of ridging events and geopotential height anomalies over the western United States in five ensemble hindcast systems. Prediction skill for ridging events is shown to be highly variable across models. For some models, longer‐time‐averaged patterns of geopotential height anomalies across the first 6 weeks can be skillfully simulated, when evaluated probabilistically against climatology. The most skillful models show modest skill in forecasting above normal ridging occurrences at lead times of Weeks 3–4 and Weeks 5–6,with some sensitivity to the specific ridge location and method for determining skill. Using the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model as a case study, longer lead time forecast busts are shown to often occur under extended periods of highly active La Nina‐like tropical convection. Model errors at simulating these tropical convection features may have a disproportionately large impact and degrade downstream forecasts over the western United States. Despite the documented model shortcomings, our results highlight an opportunity to target skillful ridging forecasts from dynamical models for improving early warning drought forecasting at S2S lead times.

S2S↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evolution of Drop Size Distributions during Hurricane Harvey and Their Effects on Rain Intensity

Hurricane Harvey hit the Texas Gulf Coast as a major hurricane on August 25, 2017, before exiting the state as a tropical storm on August 29, 2017. Left in its wake was historic flooding over southeast Texas with some locations measuring more than 60 inches of rain. The Houston NEXRAD radar (KHGX) maintained operations for the entirety of the event and is utilized in this study to better understand the evolution of the drop size distribution (DSD) in the lower (liquid) portions of the storm and how changes in the DSD were tied to observed and measured changes in rain intensities. From the KHGX dual-polarimetric radar data several DSD parameters were retrieved, including three different rain rate retrievals, as well as the mass-weighted mean-drop diameter Dm, and the normalized intercept parameter NW of the gamma distribution. Two of the rain retrievals are popular hybrid approaches, where reflectivity, differential and specific differential phase are used. The other is an attenuation-based retrieval. In a previous study, it was found that both hybrid retrievals significantly underestimated the rainfall during the heaviest rain periods, while the attenuation-based retrieval, with proper adjustment, agreed quite well with a large network of gauges from the Harris County Flood Warning System. Using Dm and NW as proxies for drop size and concentration, respectively, we will show that the heaviest rain intensities were associated in areas of the storm where there was a large concentration of large drops present. It is envisaged that results of this study can be used to develop a near-real-time tuning of the attenuation-based retrieval, thus providing timely, and possibly life-saving warnings during inundating rainfall.

David B. Wolff↗

NASA NTRS2021

The Analysis of Using Satellite Soil Moisture Observations for Flood Detection, Evaluating Over the Thailand’s Great Flood of 2011

A flood monitoring and warning system provides critical information that can protect property and save lives. A basin-scale flood monitoring system requires an effective observation platform that offers extensive ground coverage of flood conditions, low latency, and high spatiotemporal resolution. While satellite imagery offers substantial spatial flood extent in detail due to its high spatial resolution, the coarse temporal resolution and cloud obstruction limit its near real-time application. Daily soil moisture data derived from satellite sensors at a scale of a few km can be used to monitor extreme wet surface conditions arising in flood occurrences. This study analyses the flood detection capabilities of several sources of soil moisture information, including the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission (SMOS), the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS (AMSR-E), the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) on MetOp, the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), and the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM). In addition to soil moisture, the analysis includes measurements of surface reflectance from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), precipitation measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and terrestrial water storage estimates from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) as proxies for flood inundations. The analysis was conducted over the Chao Phraya River Basin (CPB) in Thailand, where the Great Flood of 2011 led to one of the most significant economic losses in the country's history. Satellite-derived soil moisture exhibits a stronger correlation with the flood inundations than the precipitation, model-derived soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage data. SMOS soil moisture observation agrees best with the MODIS-derived flood extent/occurrence, both in terms of spatial distribution and timing, and providing approximated flood lead-time of one week or longer. A neural network constructed from SMOS and MODIS data is used to predict flood intensity/occurrence (given soil moisture input) with a predicted time window from eight days to thirty-two days. The short-term prediction (e.g., eight days) achieves the highest accuracy with an averaged recovery rate of approximately 60% (correlation coefficient). This study's results suggest a potential application of satellite soil moisture data in assisting flood monitoring and warning systems.

Satellite soil moisture↗

NASA NTRS2022

Estimating groundwater use and demand in arid Kenya through assimilation of satellite data and in-situ sensors with machine learning toward drought early action

Groundwater is an important source of water for people, livestock, and agriculture during drought in the Horn of Africa. In this work, areas of high groundwater use and demand in drought-prone Kenya were identified and forecasted prior to the dry season. Estimates of groundwater use were extended from a sentinel network of 69 in-situ sensored mechanical boreholes to the region with satellite data and a machine learning model. The sensors contributed 756 site-month observations from June 2017 to September 2021 for model building and validation at a density of approximately one sensor per 3700 sq.km. An ensemble of 19 parameterized algorithms was informed by features including satellite-derived precipitation, surface water availability, vegetation indices, hydrologic land surface modeling, and site characteristics to dichotomize high groundwater pump utilization. Three operational definitions of high demand on groundwater infrastructure were considered: 1) mechanical runtime of pumps greater than a quarter of a day (6+ hr) and daily per capita volume extractions indicative of 2) domestic water needs (35+ L), and 3) intermediate needs including livestock (75+ L). Gridded interpolation of localized groundwater use and demand was provided from 2017 to 2020 and forecasted for the 2021 dry season, June–September 2021. Cross-validated skill for contemporary estimates of daily pump runtime and daily volume extraction to meet domestic and intermediate water needs was 68%, 69%, and 75%, respectively. Forecasts were externally validated with an accuracy of at least 56%, 70%, or 72% for each groundwater use definition. The groundwater maps are accessible to stakeholders including the Kenya National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). These maps represent the first operational spatially-explicit sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) estimates of groundwater use and demand in the literature. Knowledge of historical and forecasted groundwater use is anticipated to improve decision-making and resource allocation for a range of early warning early action applications.

Katie Fankhauser↗

NASA NTRS2022

Operational maize yield forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa using Earth observation data and machine learning

Food insecurity continues to grow in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In 2019, chronically malnourished people numbered nearly 240 million, or 20% of the population in SSA. Globally, numerous efforts have been made to anticipate potential droughts, crop conditions, and food shortages to foster improved food insecurity early warning and risk management. To support this goal, we develop an Earth Observation (EO) and machine-learning-based operational, subnational maize yield forecast system and evaluate its out-of-sample forecast skills during the growing seasons for Kenya, Somalia, Malawi, and Burkina Faso. In general, forecast skills improve substantially during the vegetative growth period (VP) and gradually during the reproductive development period (RP). Thus, mid-season assessment can provide effective early warning months before harvest. Skillful forecasts (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) > 0.6 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) < 20%) appear approximately two dekads after the VP; for example, they appear in May in Kenya and Somalia, January in Malawi, and July in Burkina Faso.

Donghoon Lee↗

NASA NTRS2022

Towards Effective Drought Monitoring in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) Region: Implications From Assimilating Leaf Area Index and Soil Moisture Into the Noah-Mp Land Surface Model for Morocco

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has experienced more frequent and severe drought events in recent decades, leading to increasingly pressing concerns over already strained food and water security. An effective drought monitoring and early warning system is thus critical to support risk mitigation and management by countries in the region. Here we investigate the potential for assimilation of leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture observations to improve the representation of the overall hydrological and carbon cycles and drought by an advanced land surface model. The results reveal that assimilating soil moisture does not meaningfully improve model representation of the hydrological and biospheric processes for this region, but instead it degrades the simulation of the interannual variation in evapotranspiration (ET) and carbon fluxes, mainly due to model weaknesses in representing prognostic phenology. However, assimilating LAI leads to greater improvement, especially for transpiration and carbon fluxes, by constraining the timing of simulated vegetation growth response to evolving climate conditions. LAI assimilation also helps to correct for the erroneous interaction between the prognostic phenology and irrigation during summertime, effectively reducing a large positive bias in ET and carbon fluxes. Independently assimilating LAI or soil moisture alters the categorization of drought, with the differences being greater for more severe drought categories. We highlight the vegetation representation in response to changing land use and hydroclimate as one of the key processes to be captured for building a successful drought early warning system for the MENA region.

Wanshu Nie↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Compact Electron-Proton Spectrometer for Moon / Mars Surface Space Weather Monitoring and Crew Protection (CEPS)

Small mass/low-power sensors are needed for autonomous Moon/Mars surface ops that provide alerts to impending adverse space weather conditions. In order to use current operational forecasting tools, a sensor capable of measuring both high-energy electrons and protons is needed. By combining high-TRL Timepix technology with a CdTe layer, this project leverages known technology to fill a critical gap for surface operations. Typical space weather sensors are at least an order of magnitude higher in mass than is expected from Timepix-based devices and are deployed on robotic assets away from human crews. High fidelity measurements at the crew location and subsequent ability are needed to provide warnings to crews to shelter with a device that can easily be carried on the Lunar and Martian surfaces. The aim of this project is the development of compact, low power space weather sensors for crew protection based on the combination of AES flight heritage Timepix hardware with novel CdTe (Cadmium Telluride) sensors. CdTe technology has only recently matured to a point where it can be reliably used with Timepix detectors. These detectors will be able to measure electron spectra in an energy range relevant to the RELEASE model, which is used operationally by NASA to provide crew early warning of Solar Energetic Particle Events as well as protons in the energy ranges relevant to human health allowing for event ‘nowcasting’ and total event crew dose prediction. Compared to existing solutions these detectors will be compact enough to travel with crew, providing a significant advantage to space environment situation awareness. Project results indicate that CdTe-based Timepix sensors respond well to energetic electrons, and particle tracks are sufficiently distinct to be able to measure in a mixed radiation field. Thermal testing results point to a needed design modification to mitigate high temperatures the detector will see in space. Radiation susceptibility testing was conducted to assess the radiation hardness of the CdTe-Timepix assembly. Overall, the assembly continued to operate up to 100 kRad of gamma-ray exposure. The system calibration did show drift over time but recovered once exposure was complete.

Dan James Fry↗

NASA NTRS2023

Developing a Hail and Wind Damage Swath Event Database from Daily MODIS True Color Imagery and Storm Reports for Impact Analysis and Applications

Hail and damaging winds are two threats associated with intense and severe thunderstorms that traverse the Midwest and Great Plains during the primary growing season. In certain severe thunderstorm events, large swaths of agricultural crops are impacted, allowing the damage to be viewed from multiple satellite remote sensing platforms. Previous studies have focused on analyzing individual hail and wind damage swaths (HWDSs) using satellite remote sensing, but these swaths have never been officially archived or documented. This lack of documentation has made it difficult to analyze the spatial extent and temporal frequency of HWDSs from year to year. This study utilizes daily true color imagery from MODIS aboard NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites and daily local storm reports from the Storm Prediction Center to build a database of HWDSs occurring in the months of May through August, for years 2000 through 2020. This database identified 1,646 HWDSs in 12 states throughout the Midwest and Great Plains, confirmed through a combination of archived severe weather warnings, radar information, and official storm reports. For each entry in the HWDS database, a geospatial outline is provided along with the most likely date of first visible damage from MODIS imagery as well as the physical characteristics and time of occurrence estimated from available warnings. This study also provides a summary of the radar characteristics for a portion of the database. This database will further the understanding of severe weather damage by hail and wind to agriculture to help understand the frequency of these events and assist in mapping the impacted areas.

Climatology↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Helicopter Pilots’ Detect and Avoid and Collision Avoidance Performance With ACAS Xr

The latest variant of the Federal Aviation Administration’s Airborne Collision Avoidance System (ACAS X) is being designed for both crewed and uncrewed rotorcraft. Referred to as ACAS Xr, the system joins a suite of other ACAS X variants poised to replace the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS II). ACAS Xr is tuned to support current-day helicopter platforms as well as electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) vehicles that are still under development. Given this flexibility, ACAS Xr may be used by helicopter crews currently in operation or by remotely-operated eVTOL aircraft in the emerging Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) market. To cover the range of potential uses, two distinct configurations are being proposed for ACAS Xr: Collision Avoidance System (CAS) and Detect and Avoid (DAA). Under the CAS configuration, ACAS Xr provides minimal caution-level alerting but issues directive warning-level alerting and guidance. The DAA configuration, by contrast, provides caution-level alerting and guidance, in addition to the warning-level alerting and guidance. The current study was performed as part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s AAM project. Six helicopter pilots were recruited to fly a variety of scripted traffic scenarios in a full-motion, crewed eVTOL simulator. Participants flew 60 encounters over two days, reacting to pre-recorded intruder aircraft that were scripted to fly into the participant’s aircraft from different approach angles, relative altitudes, and during different phases of flight. The pilots flew half of the encounters with the CAS configuration and half with the DAA configuration. Within each block of 30 encounters, pilots experienced 10 conflicts while in cruise, 10 in hover, and 10 while on approach to a heliport. Results showed that pilot response times were consistently under 5 seconds for RAs and under 10 seconds for DAA alerts, when present, during all three phases of flight. Unsurprisingly, the DAA configuration was associated with lower rates of en-route and high-severity losses of DAA well clear compared to the CAS configuration in all phases of flight except for the terminal area. Rates of losses of DAA well clear were found to be substantially higher in the Hover scenario, compared to Cruise. Pilots failed to fully comply with RAs at a rate of 0.10-0.18 in all conditions except for the DAA configuration in the Hover scenario, which was associated with a higher non-compliance rate of 0.4 due to Descend RAs issued at low altitudes. The implications of these results with regards to the ongoing development of ACAS Xr is discussed.

air taxis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Helicopter Pilots’ Detect and Avoid and Collision Avoidance Performance with ACAS Xr

air taxis↗

NASA NTRS2023

CEPS – A Compact Electron-Proton Spectrometer

Small mass/low-power sensors are needed for autonomous Moon/Mars surface ops that provide alerts to impending adverse space weather conditions. In order to use current operational forecasting tools, a sensor capable of measuring both high-energy electrons and protons is needed. By combining high-TRL Timepix technology with a CdTe layer, this project leverages known technology to fill a critical gap for surface operations. Typical space weather sensors are at least an order of magnitude higher in mass than is expected from Timepix-based devices and are deployed on robotic assets away from human crews. High fidelity measurements at the crew location and subsequent ability are needed to provide warnings to crews to shelter with a device that can easily be carried on the Lunar and Martian surfaces. The aim of this project is the development of compact, low power space weather sensors for crew protection based on the combination of AES flight heritage Timepix hardware with novel CdTe (Cadmium Telluride) sensors. CdTe technology has only recently matured to a point where it can be reliably used with Timepix detectors. These detectors will be able to measure electron spectra in an energy range relevant to the RELEASE model, which is used operationally by NASA to provide crew early warning of Solar Energetic Particle Events as well as protons in the energy ranges relevant to human health allowing for event ‘nowcasting’ and total event crew dose prediction. Compared to existing solutions these detectors will be compact enough to travel with crew, providing a significant advantage to space environment situation awareness. Project results indicate that CdTe-based Timepix sensors respond well to energetic electrons, and particle tracks are sufficiently distinct to be able to measure in a mixed radiation field. Detector response functions were developed for both electrons and protons. Measurement results showed response to both electrons and protons in the energy range of interest for human space flight.

Radiation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advancing Open Science in Atmospheric Research: Integrating Data Usability and Machine Learning

In the dynamic realm of atmospheric sciences, the convergence of data science methodologies and open data marks a transformative era, driving research advancements and nurturing aspiring scientists. This abstract highlights two pivotal projects that epitomize open science principles, aligning seamlessly with the session's objective of interdisciplinary synergy and the cultivation of emerging talent. As a NASA-certified data center, our foremost endeavor focuses on enhancing the visibility and traceability of NASA datasets within atmospheric science research. This initiative not only elevates these datasets' prominence but also establishes a robust framework ensuring their credibility in scholarly discourse. By bridging the gap between data sources and research publications, this project serves as an educational catalyst, nurturing a new generation of scholars in open collaboration and dataset authenticity. Concurrently, our second project pioneers an early warning system for flooding events, utilizing machine learning algorithms to predict flooded fractions. Through multi-source data fusion and predictive modeling, this initiative goes beyond forecasting; it embodies the core of open science by enabling proactive risk mitigation strategies. This project not only advances atmospheric sciences but also fosters an environment where young scholars engage in practical, data-driven solutions. These intertwined projects exemplify the fusion of data science with open data solutions, ensuring both the usability of quality datasets and the cultivation of scientific knowledge among emerging scholars. By spotlighting these impactful use cases, our aim is to foster discussions emphasizing the importance of open collaboration, data integrity, and the nurturing of scientific talent in atmospheric sciences." "In the dynamic realm of atmospheric sciences, the convergence of data science methodologies and open data marks a transformative era, driving research advancements and nurturing aspiring scientists. This abstract highlights two pivotal projects that epitomize open science principles, aligning seamlessly with the session's objective of interdisciplinary synergy and the cultivation of emerging talent. As a NASA-certified data center, our foremost endeavor focuses on enhancing the visibility and traceability of NASA datasets within atmospheric science research. This initiative not only elevates these datasets' prominence but also establishes a robust framework ensuring their credibility in scholarly discourse. By bridging the gap between data sources and research publications, this project serves as an educational catalyst, nurturing a new generation of scholars in open collaboration and dataset authenticity. Concurrently, our second project pioneers an early warning system for flooding events, utilizing machine learning algorithms to predict flooded fractions. Through multi-source data fusion and predictive modeling, this initiative goes beyond forecasting; it embodies the core of open science by enabling proactive risk mitigation strategies. This project not only advances atmospheric sciences but also fosters an environment where young scholars engage in practical, data-driven solutions. These intertwined projects exemplify the fusion of data science with open data solutions, ensuring both the usability of quality datasets and the cultivation of scientific knowledge among emerging scholars. By spotlighting these impactful use cases, our aim is to foster discussions emphasizing the importance of open collaboration, data integrity, and the nurturing of scientific talent in atmospheric sciences.

Jennifer Wei↗

NASA NTRS2024

Evaluation of a Combined Drought Indicator Against Crop Yield Estimations and Simulations Over the Argentine Humid Pampas

Droughts pose serious threats to the agricultural sector, especially in rainfed-dominated agricultural regions like those in Argentina’s Humid Pampas. This region was recently impacted by slow-evolving and long-lasting droughts as well as by flash droughts, resulting in losses reaching thousands of millions of US dollars. Improvements of drought early warning systems are essential, particularly given the projected increase in drought frequency and severity over southern South America. The spatial and temporal relationship between precipitation deficits, soil moisture and vegetation health anomalies are crucial for better understanding and representation of the agricultural droughts and their impacts. In this context, the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) considers the causal and time-lagged relationship of these three variables. The study’s objective is twofold: (1) Analyze the time-lagged response between precipitation deficits, soil moisture and satellite fAPAR anomalies; and (2) Evaluate the CDI’s capability to characterize the severity of drought events on the Humid Pampas against agricultural yield estimations and simulations, as well as agricultural emergency declarations. The correlation among the variables shows strong spatial variability. The highest Pearson correlation values (r > 0.42) are observed over parts of the Humid Pampas for time lags of 0, 10, and 20 days between the variables. Although the CDI has limitations, such as its coarse spatial resolution and monthly temporal resolution of precipitation data, it effectively tracks the progression of major drought events in the region. The CDI’s performance aligns well with estimations and simulations of soybean and corn yields, as well as official declarations of agricultural emergencies. Insights from this study also provide a basis for discussing potential improvements to the CDI. This study highlights the global and regional significance of evaluating and enhancing the CDI for effective drought monitoring, emphasizing the role of collaborative efforts for future advancements in drought early warning systems.

Combined Drought Indicator↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring the Effectiveness of Maneuvering Guidelines for Space Traffic Management

The number of objects in space has been increasing rapidly, and the risk of collision has grown as well. Many spacecraft operators are now receiving multiple collision warnings a day. Despite this, systems to manage space traffic have been limited: there are no broadly agreed upon guidelines or rules governing the response to predicted potential collisions. Instead, spacecraft operators generally determine whether, when, and how to respond to these warnings on a manual and ad hoc basis. Coordination between operators, if it occurs, often requires repeated communication and negotiation. Some space actors have suggested that the space community should develop right of way rules, similar to those in the ground, sea, and air domains, to guide collision response decisions. However, it is unclear whether such rules would be effective, and it’s unknown whether such rules would have an equitable impact across various spacecraft operators. To address these issues, we developed the Virtual Environment for Space Traffic Analysis (VESTA), a software tool that was used to simulate the space environment with a recent catalog of objects obtained from the U.S. Space-Track.org system. We implemented multiple potential right of way rules within this model. The analysis confirmed that the choice of right of way rule makes a meaningful difference in terms of both efficiency and distributional effects in terms of collision avoidance maneuvers. For example, our analysis shows that rules in which the less massive satellite is required to maneuver results in a more equitable distribution of maneuver responsibility among space actors and also requires less fuel mass, compared to a rule in which the more massive satellite maneuvers.

space traffic management↗

DOE OSTI2025

Correlation Between Weather Alerts and Grid Component Failures for Grid Alert

Weather events cause most grid failures. Often, we even get notifications on our phones to take cover or be prepared for an imminent event. If electric grid utilities had a similar warning that also included probable scenarios and the equipment involved, they could prepare and minimize the effects. Recent research at Idaho National Laboratory into electric grid risk analysis methods resulted in a tool that allows for the development of the most likely scenarios given failure probabilities of grid components. INL has a project with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER) program to develop a Grid Alert application that receives messages from the existing emergency alert system, filters and determines components possibly affected by the emergency event, calculates probable scenarios uses MASTERRI and then notifies the utility if there is significant risk. Historical failure data of elements that comprise the U.S. electric grid have been compiled by utilities and organizations such as the international regulatory body North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). Nominal failure rates are obtained from this data. To make this tool possible, estimated failure rates are needed for different component types given the alert type, severity, and location. Historic weather-related grid element failures are correlated with historic weather events from Integrated Public Alert & Warning System (IPAWS). These correlated events and failures are used along with Bayesian updates from the historical norms to provide a modified failure rate for grid elements in the alert areas and calculate probable scenarios. This discusses the Grid Alert project plan but focuses on the data gathered and process used in determining failure rates for possible grid failure scenarios.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Natural Hazard Forecast Alert Grid Risk System

Weather events cause most power outages. Often, we even get notifications on our phones to take cover or be prepared for an imminent event. If electric grid utilities had a similar warning that also included probable scenarios and the equipment involved, they could prepare and minimize the effects. Idaho National Laboratory had a project with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response program to develop a grid alert application that receives messages from the existing emergency alert system, filters and determines components possibly affected by the emergency event, calculates probable scenarios using MASTERRI (Modeling And Simulation for Targeted Reliability and Resilience Improvement). For high-risk events, the application can then send alert links to subscribed electric distribution utility operations staff to allow them to see and evaluate the scenarios and the impact in a web based interactive map tool. This proof of concept application used data from utilities and organizations, such as the international regulatory body North American Electric Reliability Corporation, which have complied historical failure data of elements that comprise the U.S. electric grid. Nominal failure rates are obtained from this data. To make this tool possible, estimated failure rates were calculated for different component types given the alert type, severity, and location. Historic weather-related grid element failures were correlated with historic weather events from the Integrated Public Alert & Warning System. These correlated events and failures are used along with Bayesian updates from the historical norms to provide a modified failure rate for grid elements in the alert areas and calculate probable scenarios. Working with an industry collaborator, actual grid models and data were used for demonstration cases. This report outlines the work performed for this project.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1996

A Variable Stability Test Vehicle for ITS Applications

A variable stability test bed is under development for the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). The Variable Dynamic Testbed Vehicle (VDTV) is being designed for research and testing of advanced collision warning and avoidance technologies being developed by industry and most likely being made available to consumers in the near future.

technologies↗

DOE OSTI2023

Field surveying data of low-cost networked flood sensors in southeast Texas

Floods are common natural disasters worldwide and pose substantial risks to life, property, food production, and natural resources. Effective measures for flood mitigation and warning are essential. Southeast Texas is still at significant risk of flooding, and Lamar University is assisting the region with asset management of a flood sensor network for flooding events. This network provides real-time water stage information. Lamar University developed a survey program to measure elevation and coordinates at each sensor site location to make this data more useful for flood monitoring and mapping. This paper overviews the measurement of the elevation and coordinates of 74 networked flood sensors and various flood stage thresholds at critical points that flood decision-makers can use for reference at each site. In the first phase of this program, these sensors were deployed throughout a 7-county region spanning nearly 6,000 square miles in Southeast Texas. The latitude and longitude of the sensors and their elevations were determined using survey-grade Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) technology. Various Continually Operating Reference Stations (CORS) were utilized for post-processing to achieve sub-inch resolution. The flood stage thresholds, water level sensors elevation, and the elevations and positions of other critical surrounding points are viewable to the public through two online repositories and a web-based sensor management dashboard. The data is used to aid with decisions related to road closures or modeling efforts by mitigation decision-makers, emergency managers, and the public, including the Texas Department of Transportation, Houston Transtar, the National Weather Service, and the Sabine River Authority of Texas (SRA).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗