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At least 577 records · Page 32

Multiobjective Dynamic Optimization for Optimal Load-Following of Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plants under Stress Constraints

With the increasing penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources into the electric grid, there is an associated need for conventional thermal power plants that are designed to operate at base-load conditions to cycle their load rapidly and frequently and operate under low-load conditions. Fast load-following operations lead to plant efficiency loss and the reduction of equipment life. A high-fidelity dynamic model of a natural gas combined cycle power plant, with rigorous equipment level submodels, is developed to capture the plant transient performance and the thermomechanical stress evolution at the high-pressure drum is computed to assess the drum life consumption. Stress evolution is modeled for the location of the edge at the drum/downcomer junction that experiences high circumferential stress amplitude during the fast load-following operation, leading to higher fatigue damage than locations considered under existing design standards. A dynamic optimization problem is solved for optimal load-following operation. Depending on the value of the stress constraint and the desired ramp rate, satisfying the desired stress constraint may be infeasible without relaxing the ramp rate. A multiobjective dynamic optimization problem is solved using a lexicographic approach that minimizes ramp rate relaxation and maximizes efficiency while satisfying stress constraints, avoiding spraying to saturation, and maintaining main steam and reheat steam temperature within bounds. It was observed that the optimal ramp rate can be highly nonlinear as opposed to the industry-standard linear ramp rate. Nonlinear optimal ramp-rate profiles not only help to avoid stress constraints that may be unavoidable by using the linear profile but also result in higher efficiency than the linear profile. Furthermore, the study shows that there is a strong tradeoff between the relaxation in the plant ramp rate and the time-average thermal efficiency.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The optimal beam-loading in two-bunch nonlinear plasma wakefield accelerators

Abstract Due to the highly nonlinear nature of the beam-loading, it is currently not possible to analytically determine the beam parameters needed in a two-bunch plasma wakefield accelerator for maintaining a low energy spread. Therefore in this paper, by using the Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno algorithm for the parameter scanning with the code QuickPIC and the polynomial regression together with k -fold cross-validation method, we obtain two fitting formulas for calculating the parameters of tri-Gaussian electron beams when minimizing the energy spread based on the beam-loading effect in a nonlinear plasma wakefield accelerator. One formula allows the optimization of the normalized charge per unit length of a trailing beam to achieve the minimal energy spread, i.e. the optimal beam-loading. The other one directly gives the transformer ratio when the trailing beam achieves the optimal beam-loading. A simple scaling law for charges of drive beams and trailing beams is obtained from the fitting formula, which indicates that the optimal beam-loading is always achieved for a given charge ratio of the two beams when the length and separation of two beams and the plasma density are fixed. The formulas can also help obtain the optimal plasma densities for the maximum accelerated charge and the maximum acceleration efficiency under the optimal beam-loading respectively. These two fitting formulas will significantly enhance the efficiency for designing and optimizing a two-bunch plasma wakefield acceleration stage.

Physics↗

Leading Edge Microspoilers for Load Dumping in Wind Turbine Rotors

As rotor designs have grown in size and flexibility, new design challenges have arisen that could benefit from novel control strategies. Leading edge microspoilers (LEMS) have been shown to effectively reduce forces on airfoils by inducing stall at lower angles of attack. This paper investigates how LEMS can be used to reduce blade loading on large, flexible, downwind rotors during design-limiting design load cases. During shutdown in turbulent flows near cutout speed, LEMS could reduce the tip deflection spikes toward the tower by over 50% and keep flapwise root bending moments below normal operating conditions, thus eliminating these as design-driving load cases. In power producing load cases, deploying LEMS for a short period of time during a load spike can be effective to reduce toward-tower tip deflections without significantly impacting power produced, assuming these load spikes can be identified by a controller. Leveraging this technology could allow for lower specific power machines to be designed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Heat load measurements for the PIP-II pHB650 cryomodule

Phase-3 testing of the pHB650 cryomodule at the PIP-II Injector Test Facility was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of heat load mitigations performed after earlier phases of testing and to continue pinpointing any sources of unexpectedly high heat loads.. The programme measured HTTS, LTTS, and 2 K isothermal/non-isothermal loads under "standard", "linac", and "simulated dynamic" operating modes, recording data both inside the cryomodule and across the bayonet can circuits. Thermal-acoustic oscillations were eliminated by replacing the original G10 cooldown-valve stem with a stainless-steel stem fitted with wipers. A newly developed Python script automated acquisition of ACNET data, performed real-time heat-load calculations, and generated plots and tables that were posted to the electronic logbook within minutes, vastly reducing manual effort and accelerating feedback between SRF and cryogenics teams. Analysis showed that JT heat-exchanger effectiveness and temperature stratification in the two-phase and relief piping strongly influence the observed loads and helped isolate sources of excess heat. The campaign demonstrates that rigorous pre-test planning, real-time diagnostics, and automated reporting can improve both accuracy and efficiency, providing a template for future PIP-II cryomodule tests and for implementing targeted heat-load mitigations.

Porwisiak, D. [Fermilab; Wroclaw Tech. U.] (ORCID:↗

Evaluation of Autonomous Vehicle Sensing and Compute Load on a Chassis Dynamometer

The sensing and compute load auxiliary energy consumption in autonomous vehicles may be significant due to the large number of sensors and the high compute load from sensor processing and route planning. To understand this issue, this study investigates the top-down energy usage of an electric 2015 Kia Soul fully instrumented with state sensors and a state-specific computer for path planning and sensor processing. A chassis dynamometer was then used to evaluate the cases of (1) no sensors or computation, (2) only sensors operating, and (3) sensors plus compute load. The vehicle was operated autonomously on the dynamometer using a PolySync drive-kit with drive-by-wire longitudinal control. The DynoJet model 224xLC was used to adapt the eddy current dynamometer's road load parameters to comply with an Environmental Protection Agency drive schedule and to evaluate performance against the Argonne National Laboratory Digital Dynamometer Dataset. On the UDDS-HWFET combined driving cycle, the stock battery's range was reduced by 5.6% for sensors alone and 12.2% for sensors and compute load. These results show that the added sensing and compute auxiliary load from automated and autonomous systems is significant and that research efforts need to be spent investigating new energy efficient systems.

Brown, Nicholas E.↗

Resilient Microgrid Scheduling Considering Multi-Level Load Priorities

In this paper, we propose a novel resilient microgrid scheduling model considering the multi-level load priorities. The resiliency of the microgrid is guaranteed by quickly adjusting the output of committed local resources and shedding the loads with low priorities when the power supply from the main grid is interrupted. Considering the uncertainty of renewable energy resources and loads as well as exchanged power at PCC, the probability of successful islanding (PSI) is used to quantify the resiliency of electricity supply for various loads with different priorities. Then, the multi-level priorities are enforced through chance constrains. Results of numerical simulation validate the proposed resilient scheduling model. In addition, the impacts of resiliency requirement of loads with high priority on the resiliency of loads with low priority are analyzed as well.

Liu, Guodong↗

A Cooperative Game Theory-based Approach to Under-frequency Load Shedding Control

This paper proposes a cooperative game theory-based under-frequency load shedding (UFLS) approach for frequency stability and control in power systems. UFLS is a crucial factor for frequency stability and control especially in power grids with high penetration of renewable energy sources and restructured power systems. Conventional UFLS methods, most of which are off-line, usually shed fixed amounts of predetermined loads based on a predetermined schedule which can lead to over or under curtailment of load. This paper presents a co-operative game theory-based two-stage strategy to effectively and precisely determine locations and amounts of loads to be shed for UFLS control. In the first stage, the total amount of loads to be shed, also referred to as deficit in generation or the disturbance power, is computed using the initial rate of change of frequency (ROCOF) referred to the equivalent inertial center. In the second stage, the Shapley value, one of the solution concepts of cooperative game theory, is used to determine load shedding amounts and locations. The proposed method is implemented on the reduced 9-bus 3-machine Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system and simulated on Real-time Digital Simulators (RTDS). The results show that the proposed UFLS approach can effectively return the system to normal state after disturbances.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Identification Uncertainty in Inverse Material Model Parameter Determination: A Sensitivity‐Based Decision Process for Load Path Selection

This research proposes a sensitivity-based framework for selecting the optimal prescribed loading path for a biaxial cruciform specimen. Optimality here is determined by the direction and magnitude of the prescribed displacement that minimizes the influence of random noise on the material model parameter identification. Using simulated experimental data based on finite element simulation, in this work, we identify the material model parameters of a Ludwik hardening model and plane stress implementation of the Hill-48 yield criterion using finite element model updating (FEMU). Our analysis reveals that the identification (or estimator) uncertainty of model parameters depends on the displacement boundary conditions (i.e., loading sequence) and the ground-truth value of the individual parameters. Optimal experimental design (OED) criteria based on the Fisher information matrix were investigated to mitigate indecision in the choice of optimal load path when the identification uncertainty of different material model parameters optimized at different load paths. The determinant of the Fisher information matrix was chosen here as the more useful metric due to its ability to capture uncertainty of the most influential material model parameters. The proposed framework demonstrates potential for real-time automated load step selection using scalar criteria derived prior to mechanical loading. The framework can be generalized to other geometries, boundary conditions and material models, allowing this procedure to be utilized for different experimental configurations and materials.

Fayad, Samuel S. [University of Illinois at Urbana↗

A Stochastic Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Algorithm for Dynamic Load Prioritization in Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings

Increasing deployment of advanced sensing, controls, and communication infrastructure enables buildings to provide services to the power grid, leading to the concept of grid-interactive efficient buildings. Since occupant activities and preferences primarily drive the availability and operational flexibility of building devices, there is a critical need to develop occupant-centric approaches that prioritize devices for providing grid services, while maintaining the desired end-use quality of service. In this paper, we present a decision-making framework that facilitates a building owner/operator to effectively prioritize loads for curtailment service under uncertainties, while minimizing any adverse impact on the occupants. The proposed framework uses a stochastic (Markov) model to represent the probabilistic behavior of device usage from power consumption data, and a load prioritization algorithm that dynamically ranks building loads using a stochastic multi-criteria decision-making algorithm. The proposed load prioritization framework is illustrated via numerical simulations in a residential building use-case, including plug-loads, air-conditioners, and plug-in electric vehicle chargers, in the context of load curtailment as a grid service. Suitable metrics are proposed to evaluate the closed-loop performance of the proposed prioritization algorithm under various scenarios and design choices. Scalability of the proposed algorithm is established via computational analysis, while time-series plots are used for intuitive explanation of the ranking choices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Spent Nuclear Fuel Mechanical Loads in the General Package Drop Scenario

The US Department of Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology program is performing research to determine the mechanical loading conditions applied to spent nuclear fuel (SNF) during normal conditions of transportation to inform mechanical tests of SNF and close an important knowledge gap related to the practical disposition of SNF in the US. A recent multi-national collaborative test campaign measured SNF assembly impact response to the 30 cm horizontal package drop scenario, which is a common regulatory basis test of SNF package design. Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) are using the test data to validate explicit finite element models to calculate the mechanical loads and structural response of spent nuclear fuel assemblies in the as-tested 30 cm horizontal package drop scenario. Once the as-tested package drop model is validated, the next step is to apply the model to the general 30 cm drop scenario, which includes all impact angles, all fuel assembly types, and all burnup conditions. PNNL is developing a damage model that will incorporate the results of finite element parametric studies to establish trends in SNF mechanical loading to various input parameters, like impact orientation and burnup. The damage model will have the capability to estimate mechanical loads for any single set of input parameters, but it will first be used to describe the upper bounds of potential SNF loading in the 30 cm drop scenario. This paper describes PNNL’s progress toward developing the general solution to the problem of spent nuclear fuel mechanical loads in the 30 cm package drop scenario and it describes the next steps in closing the knowledge gap.

Klymyshyn, Nicholas A.↗

AN ESTIMATE OF SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL MECHANICAL LOADS IN THE GENERAL 30 CM PACKAGE DROP SCENARIO

The US Department of Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) program is performing research to determine the mechanical loading conditions applied to spent nuclear fuel (SNF) during normal conditions of transport to inform mechanical tests of SNF and close an important knowledge gap related to the practical disposition of SNF in the US. Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) have completed an extensive finite element study to characterize and estimate the potential mechanical loads on SNF during a hypothetical 30 cm drop of an SNF transportation package. This modeling study is validated with test data collected by the SFWST program during a physical test campaign that included one-third scale package drop tests and full-scale single fuel assembly drop tests. The test campaign was led by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and included international collaboration with Equipos Nucleares S.A, S.M.E (ENSA) and Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und -prüfung (BAM). The key contribution of the modeling study is to go beyond the limitations of the limited number of physical tests to estimate the impact response to variations in impact angle, initial gap conditions, fuel assembly design, burnup and other parameters that affect the mechanical loads. The methodology of this study included a classic parametric study to calculate the impact response of highly detailed fuel assemblies over many combinations of parameters. Models of a 17x17 pressurized water reactor fuel assembly and a generic 10x10 boiling water reactor fuel assembly were both used in this study to cover the major fuel assembly types in the US inventory. Over 2,000 impact responses were calculated. The results of the parametric study were evaluated using traditional methods and basic statistics. The results were also used to construct a damage model using multiple nonlinear regression techniques to predict the mechanical loads over the full range of all input parameters. The damage model was found to work very well for all impact angle cases where the cask came to rest on its side. It was concluded that end drop cases where the cask remained vertical (instead of tipping over onto its side) were not sufficiently characterized by the current set of parametric study cases to include in the damage model, but it was not a priority to fully investigate that range because the highest mechanical loads were observed in the broader range of side impact cases. This modeling work provides sufficient insight into the mechanical loads on SNF during a hypothetical 30 cm package drop that, when considered along with the physical test data collected by the SNL-led team, the SFSWT program can consider the knowledge gap closed.

Klymyshyn, Nicholas A.↗

GreenThrift: Optimizing Carbon and Cost for Flexible Residential Loads

Reducing buildings’ carbon emissions is an important sustainability challenge. While scheduling flexible building loads has been previously used for a variety of grid and energy optimizations, carbon footprint reduction using such flexible loads poses new challenges since such methods need to balance both energy and carbon costs while also reducing user inconvenience from delaying such loads. This paper highlights the potential conflict between electricity prices and carbon emissions and the resulting trade-offs in carbon-aware and cost-aware load scheduling. To address this trade-off, we propose GreenThrift, a home automation system that leverages the scheduling capabilities of smart appliances and knowledge of future carbon intensity and cost to reduce both the carbon emissions and costs of flexible energy loads. At the heart of GreenThrift is an optimization technique that automatically computes schedules based on user configurations and preferences. We evaluate the effectiveness of GreenThrift using real-world carbon intensity data, electricity prices, and load traces from multiple locations and across different scenarios and objectives. Our results show that GreenThrift can replicate the offline optimal and retains 97% of the savings when optimizing the carbon emissions. Moreover, we show how GreenThrift can balance the conflict between carbon and cost and retain 95.3% and 85.5% of the potential carbon and cost savings, respectively.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Microstructural Evolution and ORR Activity of Nanocolumnar Platinum Thin Films with Different Mass Loadings Grown by High Pressure Sputtering

Nanocolumnar platinum thin films (Pt-TFs) with different Pt mass loadings were grown by high pressure sputtering (HIPS) and investigated as oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) electrocatalysts for polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell applications. Mass loading was controlled by changing the sputter deposition time. A cauliflower-like columnar microstructure was achieved by depositing the Pt-TFs onto a microporous layer (MPL)-like surface composed of carbon particles in order to mimic catalyst-coated gas diffusion electrodes. Microstructural evolution of HIPS Pt-TFs and their ORR activity were investigated. Electrochemical characterization of the nanocolumnar Pt-TFs was performed by cyclic voltammetry and rotating disk electrode measurements on Pt-TF/MPL-like-layer/glassy-carbon samples in an aqueous perchloric acid electrolyte. The electrochemically active surface area increased from 18 to 39 m 2 g –1 as the Pt mass loading was decreased. Specific activity of the films was similar (~600 μA cm –2 ) for all Pt mass loadings, due to the similar nanoparticle sizes of ~5 nm as observed by transmission electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction. Furthermore, mass activity of the films increased from 0.11 to 0.26 A mg –1 as the Pt mass loading was decreased, which is an indication of the effective Pt utilization and better access through the catalyst layer at lower Pt mass loadings.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Modeling Exhaust-Generated Aerodynamic Pressure Loads on Airfield Matting Repair Systems

Airfield matting systems are commonly used for rapid repair of damaged runways to facilitate continuity of critical operations. Under normal service conditions, matting repair systems are subject not only to wheel loads exerted by airfield traffic but also to aerodynamic pressure loads resulting from high-speed, turbulent exhaust plumes produced by jets during taxi and take-off. Matting systems employed by the U.S. Air Force have been tested with respect to wheel loads, but probabilities of failure because of pressure loads produced by jet exhaust have not yet been established. This study presents a numerical approach for preliminary estimation of worst-case matting anchor forces resulting from exhaust-generated pressure loads. Using a two-dimensional computational fluid dynamics model, system behavior is evaluated by means of a parametric study of six system variables, of which the most significant are: (1) distance between engine and matting, (2) depth of cavity openings at matting edges, and (3) engine exhaust velocity. The results demonstrate that matting systems are likely to experience net uplift in typical service scenarios, driven by the combined effects of flow separation and cavity pressurization. Worst-case anchor pull-out forces, computed according to a tributary-area approach, are estimated to fall in the range of 130 lb (581 N) to 979 lb (4,350 N), depending on assumed load-sharing behavior among anchors and the size of the repair site. Field testing of instrumented matting systems during jet taxi and take-off sequences is recommended as the best next step toward understanding system behavior.

Engineering↗

Power System Resilience Metrics Augmentation for Critical Load Prioritization

One of the major goals of new grid operation regimes, such as transactive energy systems (TESs), is to make the power grid more resilient to withstand natural or man-made disasters and potential reliability events, and to continue to serve the maximum number of its customers. But it is a well-known fact to system operators that not all customers are the same. This implies that any discussion of TESs’ impacts on the resilience of the power system should consider the needs of its critical customers (such as the power system operation centers, fire and police stations, and hospitals) over those of other customers. When evaluating the resilience of the system, bonus points must be awarded to any system that could maintain its power supply to critical customers during a disturbance that may cause an outage. This report discusses critical infrastructure (CI) as found in the literature and then categorizes it based on the field to which the operations belong (such as human life/safety-related, operations management, necessary city operation, industrial customers, etc.). Each of these CI categories is further divided into types of critical customers (e.g., the human life/safety-related category has different types of customers like hospitals, fire and police stations, etc.). The entire demand of each of the critical customer types is not categorized as critical load (CL); instead, only a portion of the total load of these critical customers is characterized as critical load. This is done based on the categories of equipment, the function of which is crucial in the operation of the overall facility. CL categorization is performed to provide the ratio of the critical load portion to the overall load , so that it can serve as a parameter in the resilience evaluation of the grid through a metrics-based approach. Such categorization is important as it helps to augment the existing quantifiable resilience metrics with CL categorization. The metrics for a power system need to not only consider how well a system performed during a disturbance event, but also how it reduced strain and supplied power to its CLs. The first step in this process is characterize CLs in the system. After CL characterization, the next step is the inclusion of these loads in the resilience metrics. To that end, in this report weight-based augmentation of resilience metrics is proposed, where certain customers (the ones that are categorized as critical) are assigned higher weights than others. Though an overview of assigning weights to customers is discussed, there is no one-size-fits-all approach for every power system. The decisions made about assigning such weights to customers vary greatly from one operator to another, based on their unique systems and the current and predicted states of critical customers. This decision-making can include the type of disturbance event, which might only affect certain parts of the system. In general, analyzing critical customers before an event helps understand system vulnerabilities. It also helps in planning and conducting operations during the event, evaluating system performance after the event, and supporting better planning for future events. An alternative to the current practices of managing the grid for outages is an innovative TES, which has the potential to provide a platform for including distributed energy resources for managing CLs. This report also describes how TES qualities can help (1) to maintain power supply to critical customers for uninterrupted operations and (2) to restore lost power supply to the critical customers rapidly.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Verification Problems for Smooth Step Amplitude Load Curves in DYNA3D/Paradyn

This report documents the addition of three new verification tests in the LOADCURVE directory of the DYNA3D/Paradyn Software Quality Assurance test suite. Each test consists of a single element, where the velocities of each node are specified by either the newly added smooth step tabular load curve or another load curve option. The first test assesses the initialization and interpolation of the newly inputted load curve option through tabulated abscissa-ordinate pairs of data. The second test uses the same set of abscissa-ordinate data points and applies offset and scaling parameters available within the load curve definition. The third test defines the smooth step load curve in an original input deck, and assesses its correct redefinition using a restart file. The simulation velocities are compared to their true values at discrete points in time, and each test is verified up to numerical precision. These results confirm that the smooth step load curve option is functioning correctly and as intended.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

EV Charging Infrastructure Energization An Overview of Approaches for Simplifying and Accelerating Timelines to Processing EV Charging Load Service Requests

The United States has seen significant growth in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, leading to increased demand for EV charging infrastructure. Over the past decade, EV charging infrastructure site developers, site hosts, and electric distribution utilities have navigated the process to integrate chargers onto the electric grid. Site developers and site hosts have raised the alarm that the integration process for high-powered EV charging projects does not meet the needs of the EV market for timeliness or cost. High-powered charging stations typically require a load service request or an agreement with the local utility to connect to the grid. The process of energizing a new high-powered charging site can be complex and time-consuming, often taking up to 2 years. This timeline is the result of current utility energization processes having been designed for construction projects that take longer to build (i.e., buildings). The specific challenges stem from various factors, including compartmentalization in application processes, the integration of EV charging process approvals with other distributed energy resources (DERs), and the need to ensure grid reliability. The energization process needs to evolve to meet the growing demand for high-powered EV charging. This white paper compiles information gathered through various conversations with key stakeholders, including utilities, utility regulators, EV charging operators, site developers, and authorities having jurisdiction (AHJ) as well as through an extensive literature review. This document identifies the challenges and provides potential solutions to streamline the process of connecting EV charging infrastructure to the power grid in the United States, serving as a starting point for future conversations around these solutions. The solutions noted in this white paper require collaborative efforts among utilities, regulators, and EV charging infrastructure developers to streamline the grid connection process for EV charging infrastructure. They are broadly organized into four areas: 1. Increase data access and transparency: Develop automated load service request tools, integrate hosting capacity and load service request analyses, incorporate EV adoption forecasts, and provide transparency on the processing queue. 2. Improve energization processes and timing: Create fast-track options based on prescreening criteria, provide flexibility or phased approvals in the load service request/interconnection process, build internal knowledge within utilities about EV charging technologies, and provide standardized workforce training. 3. Promote economic efficiency: Right size distribution components to accurately reflect the load requirements of EV charging infrastructure, make proactive investments in grid infrastructure based on EV adoption forecasts and growth projections, and consider energy equity and environmental justice factors such as equitable access to EV charging when planning infrastructure. 4. Improve grid reliability and resilience: Use load management/power control systems (PCS) at EV charging stations, adopt and implement harmonized standards for communication protocols and information models between the EV charging and grid control infrastructure, and address cybersecurity considerations by implementing robust security measures and standards for EV charging infrastructure—with particular emphasis on clarifying the security requirements for the interface to the grid. The objective of the solutions proposed in this white paper is to accelerate the timeline and decrease costs associated with connecting EV charging infrastructure to the grid. Electric utilities, utility regulators, EV charging infrastructure developers, and site hosts will first need to understand which solutions are available in their service territory, and if warranted, which combination of solutions would support their specific needs. Through the successful implementations of solutions at scale detailed here, industry will demonstrate a new and innovative ecosystem where timely deployment and energization of EV charging infrastructure with greater grid resiliency and reliability is a reality.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Potential Impacts of Dynamic Electricity Pricing in California: Load Shape and Customer Bill Impacts Under Elastic Customer Response

The increasing penetration of renewable energy in California has intensified grid management challenges, exemplified by the “duck curve” and the resulting need for steep ramping and curtailment of renewables. To address these issues, dynamic electricity tariffs that vary in near-real time are being considered to incentivize customers to shift demand and support the grid. This study extends previous work on the bill impacts of such tariffs in the absence of load response by quantifying the system-level and customer impacts of load response based on customer price elasticity. Customer-level load response modeling was conducted using meter data from 411,000 customers across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Customer demand elasticity was estimated using literature-based values, with scenarios ranging from low to high elasticity, including an automation-enhanced scenario. Results indicate that universal adoption of, and response to, dynamic tariffs can significantly reduce peak net load (by 15%) and maximum ramping requirements (by 20%) with moderate elasticity, delivering demand response resources comparable to or exceeding current programs at all elasticity levels. Bill analysis shows that, when responding elastically to dynamic prices, most non-PV customers experience modest savings, while PV customers may see higher effective rates due to lower compensation for exports during low-price periods. Emissions analysis reveals a reduction in per-kWh emissions system-wide, with a total absolute load increase of 2% accompanied by a negligible absolute emissions increase. The study concludes that while dynamic tariffs offer substantial grid benefits, customer bill savings under modeled response behaviors may be too modest to drive widespread adoption without additional incentives or enabling technologies. Future research should model flexible loads and advanced control technologies with greater fidelity to better represent the potential opportunities of dynamic tariffs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗