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DOE OSTI2012

Reliability Evaluation of Concentrator Photovoltaic Modules per IEC Qualification Specifications

This project is related to the qualification testing of new generation CPV (concentrator photovoltaics) modules at lower testing costs and lower turnaround time. In this project, the first testing program was completed for two CPV manufacturers, the second testing program was completed for two manufacturers at 65% of the actual testing cost and at less than 3 months of testing turnaround time and the third testing program was completed for two manufacturers at 65% of the actual testing cost and at less than 3 months of testing turnaround time. Due to their financial situation and restructuring, Amonix (one of the CPV manufacturers) intermittently terminated the test programs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2013

Water Splitting by Thin Film Metal-Oxo Catalysts

The dropping price of silicon photovoltaics in the United States is causing load defection to solar supply at an accelerated pace. This conversion to solar and, more generally, other renewable energy sources has accordingly turned the energy research focus from generation to one of storage. Truly disruptive improvements in energy storage technologies are limited by energy density. This limitation, however, does not apply to fuels, which possess the energy density needed for large-scale energy storage. The first step of the basic science needed to drive such historic restructuring of the U.S. energy infrastructure begins with the solar-driven generation of hydrogen and oxygen from water. The solar-produced hydrogen may then be combined with carbon dioxide to deliver any number of fuels. Obviously, light does not directly act on water to engender its splitting into its elemental components. Hence, catalysts are needed to drive the oxygen evolution reaction (OER) and hydrogen evolution reaction (HER). Of these two reactions, the four-electron, four-proton oxidation of OER is the more kinetically challenging reaction, and therefore the development of energy efficient solar fuels processes demands that OER be accomplished at a minimal overpotential. The research completed in this program developed catalysts that drive OER and at the same time meet the important criteria of (1) using non-critical materials that (2) are easy to assemble and (3) accomplish OER under simple conditions. Research was designed to uncover the chemical principles that underlie the self-assembly of metal oxide oxygen evolving catalysts (M-OEC) from the metals of M = Mn, Co, and Ni. For example, a dogma of heterogeneous catalysis of any sort is that “edges” matter in promoting catalytic transformations. We provided a rationale for such dogma by showing that the OER in Co-OEC occurred at a dimensionally reduced dicobalt edge site. Edge site reactivity was clearly revealed analyzing 18O labeled OER with differential electrochemical mass spectrometry (DEMS) of Co-OEC. The OER mechanism of M-OECs was examined with complementary studies of model dicobalt compounds that captured the critical steps of the OER reaction. Additionally, the role of activating M-OECS with metal ion dopants was defined by developing structure–function relationships, guided by the principles of inorganic chemistry. We found that the M(IV) oxidation state in oxidic OER frameworks was correlated to the presence of the dopant metal, as assessed by coulometric titration and ICP-MS analysis. To investigate why greater M(IV) valence is beneficial to greater catalytic OER activity, we probed the influence of formal M valence on the electronic structure of oxygen ions in M-OECs by undertaking O and Ni K-edge spectroscopy, which revealed greater M-O covalency and hence M-oxyl radical character with M(IV) formation. Such oxyl radical character is consistent with increasing evidence for the role of oxygen radicals in O–O bond formation by a proton-coupled electron transfer mechanism involving water, to generate a hydroperoxide intermediate from which oxygen is generate. In accomplishing this science, the DOE program leveraged its expertise in spectroscopy and structural methods, inorganic and materials synthesis, and electrochemical characterization. The knowledge garnered from this proposed program enables the design of next generation catalysts with improved OER kinetics that operate over a wide range of conditions and environments.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2016

Summit on Improving the Economics of America's Nuclear Power Plants

The Summit on Improving the Economics of America’s Nuclear Power Plants was convened May 19, 2016, by Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz and co-sponsored by Idaho Senator Mike Crapo to stress the importance of existing nuclear reactors in meeting our nation’s energy goals. The summit was also designed to identify and discuss policy options that can be pursued at federal and state levels to address economic challenges, as well as technical options that utilities can use to improve the economic competitiveness of operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) and avoid early plant retirements that are driven by temporary market conditions. The owners of NPPs face difficult economic decisions and are working to improve the performance of existing NPPs. However, it soon became clear that some of the actions taken by states and regional markets have had an impact on the economic viability of existing power plants, including carbon free NPPs. Summit speakers identified concepts and actions that could be taken at state and federal levels to improve the economics of the existing fleet within these regulated and restructured electricity markets. This report summarizes the speeches, concepts, and actions taken.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2017

State Performance-Based Regulation Using Multiyear Rate Plans for U.S. Electric Utilities

Electric utilities today must contain costs at a time when many need to modernize aging systems and all face major changes in technologies, customer preferences and competitive pressures.Most U.S. electric utility facilities are investor-owned, subject to rate and service regulation by state public utility commissions. Regulatory systems under which these utilities operate affect their performance and ability to meet these challenges. In this business environment, multiyear rate plans have some advantages over traditional rate regulation.The report focuses on key design issues and provides case studies of the multiyear rate plan approach, applicable to both vertically integrated and restructured states. Mark Newton Lowry and Matt Makos of Pacific Energy Group Research and Jeff Deason of Berkeley Lab authored the report; Lisa Schwartz, Berkeley Lab, was project manager and technical editor.The report is aimed primarily at state utility regulators and stakeholders in the state regulatory process. The multiyear rate approach also provides ideas on how to streamline oversight of public power utilities and rural electric cooperatives for their governing boards.Two key provisions of multiyear rate plans strengthen cost containment incentives and streamline regulation: 1. Reducing frequency of rate cases, typically to every four or five years 2. Using an attrition relief mechanism to escalate rates or revenue between rate cases to address cost pressures such as inflation and growth in number of customers, independently of the utility’s own cost Better utility performance can be achieved under well-designed multiyear rate plans while achieving lower regulatory costs. Benefits can be shared between utilities and their customers. But plans can be complex and involve significant changes in the regulatory system. Designing plans that stimulate utility performance without undue risk and share benefits fairly can be challenging.This report discusses the rationale for multiyear rate plans and their usefulness under modern business conditions. It then explains critical plan design issues and challenges and presents results from numerical research that considers the extra incentive power achieved under different plan provisions. Next, the report presents several case studies of utilities that have operated under formal multiyear rate plans or, for various reasons, have stayed out of rate cases for more than a decade. These studies consider the effect of multiyear rate plans and rate case frequency on utility cost, reliability and other performance dimensions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2017

MOOSE Framework Speed and Memory Optimizations

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework has been developed to solve a variety of complex simulations ranging from groundwater flows to full reactor simulations. MOOSE excels at solving fully-implicit, fully-coupled, highly nonlinear models using the Jacobian Free Newton-Krylov (JFNK) method relying on years of expertise in several dependent packages including PETSc, libMesh, Hypre and many others. The modular design of MOOSE enables the rapid development of new physics models that can be coupled with relative ease within the framework for building up simulations of different levels of complexity. With the ongoing adoption of MOOSE to new application areas along with streamlining of existing simulations, the priorities must be adjusted to include code optimizations. This includes both execution speed and the memory footprint of MOOSE-based simulations. These two categories can be further broken down into ''micro-optimizations'' or source code optimizations and algorithmic optimizations where source code is restructured to accomplish the same tasks through a more efficient means. However, before any code optimizations can occur, one must have robust way of measuring these critical simulation properties to identify the best candidates for optimizations along with having a way to identify the effectiveness of proposed optimizations to the framework. This report discusses the preliminary work towards the implementation of a robust execution baseline of the framework and derivative applications under a variety of different simulations. In addition, several potential optimization target areas in both the MOOSE framework and dependent libraries have been identified. An implementation strategy and potential benefits are discussed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Status and Trends in the U.S. Voluntary Green Power Market (2016 Data)

The "voluntary" or "green power" market is that in which consumers and institutions voluntarily purchase renewable energy to match all or part of their electricity needs. Voluntary action provides a revenue stream for renewable energy projects and raises consumer awareness of the benefits of renewable energy. There are numerous ways consumers and institutions can purchase renewable energy. Historically, the voluntary market has consisted of three market sectors: (1) utility green pricing programs (in states with regulated electricity markets), (2) competitive suppliers (in states with restructured electricity markets), and (3) unbundled renewable electricity certificate (REC) markets, where RECs are purchased by consumers separately from electricity ("unbundled").

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Making Compiler-Based Tools Accessible Online

Compiler-based tools are widely used to analyze and optimize source codes for many purposes, including extracting insights about applications’ properties or restructuring code for better performance. However, using compiler-based tools is often difficult due to tedious and error-prone steps to configure and install such tools on various machines. In this paper, we describe a solution to use CGI + Bash to expose compilerbased tools to a web page so users can directly use these tools without installing them.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Collaborative Research: Improved Efficiency and Coupling of the Radiation Code in the ACME Earth System Model (Final Report)

The complexity of radiative transfer, its importance to the exchange of energy in the climate system, and its high computational cost establishes importance of an accurate and efficient radiative transfer parameterization for climate simulation. Previous work by the proposing team at AER led to the development of the radiation code, RRTMG, which has been widely accepted by the global modeling community as a fast and accurate advancement over the previous generation of radiation codes. It has been in use in the NCAR CESM for many years, and it has been implemented in the initial version the DOE E3SM model. However, its computational cost remains high relative to other components in part due to its complexity and to its inefficient use of modern optimization strategies, and this project helped address this limitation for the code’s application in E3SM. Under other funding, the Investigators of this project led an effort to develop a high-performance broadband radiation code, called RTE+RRTMGP, which is a completely restructured code that will take advantage of modern computational capabilities to enhance its performance while retaining the strengths and accuracy of the original code. Designed to perform over a range of computer architectures, RTE+RRTMGP makes extensive use of Fortran 2003 features to improve both its efficiency and its use of memory. RTE+RRTMGP is expected to be adopted in the next generation of RTE+RRTMGP. This project allowed for advancements to the code’s computational capabilities and adding new and enhanced features. This included revising RTE+RRTMGP to run on GPU processors, analysis of and improvements to the code’s timing, modifying the gas optics in RRTMGP to increase the code’s accuracy, extensive validation of computed fluxes, heating rates and forcings, generating a cloud optical property and vertical sampling capabilities for RTE+RRTMGP, implementing a fast and accurate longwave scattering capability, and groundwork for the inclusion of a capability to specify solar variability. Many of the accomplishment in this project necessitated significant collaboration with the E3SM development team. The result of this project was optimization of a key physical component (radiative transfer calculations) of E3SM, directly supporting E3SM’s overarching global modeling objectives. More broadly, this project provided overall advancements in the use of radiative transfer calculations in atmospheric modeling and simulation, particularly for climate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Making Compiler-Based Tools Accessible Online

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Documenting Development of Processing Parameters for Fabrication of Doped and Undoped Fuel Pellets (Summary Report)

Early FY20 restructuring of the TREAT work package FT-20LA02020608 Enriched Fuel Fabrication for Safety Testing, and associated deliverables necessitated the rescoping of existing LANL deliverables. This rescoped carryover report summarizes work to date on doped and undpoped fuel pellet fabrication development of proceeding parameters. This summary also includes a status update of intended research activities that fall under the activity associated with this work package.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Hybrid FPOG Applications in Regulated and Deregulated Markets Using HERON

Recent changes in the U.S. energy market, such as low natural gas prices and increased electricity production for variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, have led to an economic crisis for existing light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPP). Many owners and operators of LWRs have elected to decommission these plants rather than continue using them as consistent sources of clean baseload power. This has led to exploration of various possibilities to increase the economic viability of these units, including market restructuring to monetize benefits LWRs already provide to the grid through ancillary markets, load following and economic dispatch, and possible integration of secondary systems directly to the NPP for production of additional products through technologies such as hydrogen electrolysis or water desalination. Previous studies have considered the technologies associated with these Integrated Energy Systems (IES) activities, and the analysis of markets for these secondary products. To analyze the economic viability of various system configurations including IES, especially given the uncertainty surrounding load demand, electricity prices, and the availability of VRE resources, the stochastic technoeconomic analysis package HERON (Heuristic Energy Resource Optimization Network) was released earlier this year as an extension of the risk analysis framework RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual Environment). HERON focuses foremost on making the complex uncertainty quantification analysis tools approachable for energy systems analysts, also providing general dispatch optimization algorithms for those workflows. HERON continues to be improved and tested as a significant part of the IES viability analyses performed in this work. HERON is not a capacity expansion model. To consider market and grid energy system development in a variety of scenarios, HERON is best used in coupling with modelling tools such as US-REGEN, which sacrifice some of the uncertainty analysis and resolution of HERON's modelling for the ability to efficiently predict the change in the grid energy system's profile due to economic drivers over decades. HERON can then use this information to explore the economic viability of introducing changes to the predicted outcomes, such as the introduction of an IES. In this work, experts at EPRI using US-REGEN provide six projection scenarios for use in HERON stochastic technoeconomic analysis (STEA) in considering the options available for increasing LWR economic viability through introduction of a hydrogen-centric IES using a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant (HTSE), hydrogen storage, and a constant-rate contracted hydrogen consumer. The results obtained are differential in nature; they do not report expected profits for any configuration, but rather report on the possible increase in the NPV of a configuration with respect to a baseline no-IES configuration. Due to the uncertainty captured in the variable net load of the systems, there is likewise uncertainty in the mean values reported. We consider this viability both in terms of a regulated market, where the energy producers and IES are owned and operated by single entity, as well as a deregulated market, where the IES chooses its bid for electricity generation and is then dispatched by the grid system operator. Results indicate that for deregulated markets, the inclusion of the IES is often statistically beneficial. This is especially true in policies that are not favorable towards nuclear, as nuclear is less often dispatched and is forced to deal with frequent idle capacity. In the nominal case as well as the case of carbon tax policies, inclusion of the IES clearly benefited the economic performance of the NPP. In the regulated case, however, there was a trend towards minimizing the IES, likely due to the optimal sizing performed by US-REGEN of the NPP within the system as well as the lack of penalty for idle capacity at the NPP in the regulated market analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

First principles calculations in support of Pu aging: calculating the effects of lattice imperfections on thermodynamics

Plutonium (Pu) has, in theory, well defined crystal structures: its atoms are arranged in regular spatial patterns. But Pu is radioactive, and as its nuclei decay those regular spatial patterns are interrupted. The interruptions are lattice imperfections, which are known to affect how materials respond to their environment. To adequately model Pu, we need to know which lattice imperfections are present, how they interact with each other, and how they affect the material’s response to its environment. The work presented here aims to use density functional theory (DFT) calculations to begin to answer the latter, in particular, how individual lattice imperfections affect measurable effects including thermal expansion (the change in volume in response to a change in temperature), heat capacity (the amount of thermal energy needed to change a material’s temperature), and elastic moduli (a material’s resistance to applied stresses). Pu poses many computational challenges. The $\textit{f}$ electrons require special attention. Of all the elements, Pu has the largest number of electrons that must be included in the calculations. Thermal effects require calculating the phonons (the lattice vibrations), which for systems containing lattice imperfections demand large, complex computational cells - but computational resources limit the size and complexity. With careful restructuring of how the calculations are performed, all these challenges have been met to enable calculations that provide insight into how lattice imperfections affect Pu’s response to its environment. Reported here are the computational challenges and the advances developed to meet them, along with the first results showing the strong effect that one prototype lattice imperfection (an interstitial Pu atom in a delta-phase Pu lattice) has on Pu’s response to its environment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Transportation Hub Infrastructure Expansion: Decision Support Under Uncertainty

The Athena project (www.athena-mobility.org) has worked to investigate the relationship between the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport (DFW) and the greater Dallas area in order to better understand and therefore better inform future decision-making regarding the critical infrastructure that influence mobility between the airport and the city. Through this work, infrastructure related to curbside pickup and drop-off, parking, public transit, and the road network congestion were identified as critical to the operation of the DFW transportation hub. The infrastructure analysis and expansion aspect of the Athena project is focused on the restructuring of the CTA curb as a hierarchical curb and the building or repurposing of parking infrastructure as the interplay between these two areas. Many sources of uncertainty exist that may impact future airport and transportation hub operations, such as passenger volume growth, population demographic changes over time, electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates, and autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption rates. Due to these sources of uncertainty, we have selected for our research a modeling framework that can capture various types of uncertainty and hedge against those uncertainties in the optimization process. We analyze road network and curb congestion, the rise of transportation networking companies, trends in parking usage, existing policies around this infrastructure, airport revenue streams, and other contributing factors to enable infrastructure decision making with less uncertainty. To accomplish this wholistic analysis, we have developed a novel multi-stage, multi-period stochastic optimization model which considers the airport's decisions from 2025-2045 under different possible future macro trajectories and day-to-day variations in operational conditions captured as "annual representation of operations" scenarios with respective probabilities. This model has also been designed to leverage the outputs of various efforts under the Athena project to create a combined decision framework for infrastructure decisions. These various efforts include the route optimization model, the ASPIRES simulation, the mode choice model, and the SUMO traffic simulation. Our computational experiments of this system at scale have resulted in a working version of our infrastructure model which enables the explicit representation and consideration of various sources of uncertainty in the decision process to enable robust, flexible decision-making. This model has been effectively run on NREL's HPC system, Eagle, with large numbers of stochastic scenarios and shows promise as a scalable tool for robust consideration of uncertainties in airport planning. We have tested our model using 30,240 operational circumstances in total, resulting in a problem with more 200 million variables. This model was solved in several different configurations, and a workflow to simulate the performance of the infrastructure model results was developed and deployed. In general, our results indicate that a combination of remote parking, remote curb infrastructure, and dynamic pricing can generate revenue, reduce emissions, accommodate emerging technologies such as AVs and EVs, and manage airport passenger growth over time. We note the success of the proposed strategy depends on the data collection and forecasting abilities of DFW. We have also seen that the AV adoption by TNCs might necessitate larger amounts of remote curb. The results of this work inform strategies for airport infrastructure decision making, as well as demonstrate the value of an adaptable model, but also indicate that there are avenues remaining where further research would be of value.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Conasauga Shale Research Consortium (CSRC) (Final Report)

The objective of the Conasauga Shale Research Consortium (CSRC) project was to establish a field laboratory and utilize a horizontal well of opportunity to conduct a scientific study designed to advance the understanding of the petrophysical and geomechanical properties of the emerging Rogersville Shale unconventional oil and gas play. Unfortunately, just as the research program was beginning, our industry partner lost a primary investor in the horizontal well which was intended to be the ‘well of opportunity’ for the project. In a negotiated restructuring of the project by DOE-NETL and the Awardee consortium, additional time for Budget Period 1 was granted in the hopes that the industry partner could acquire additional investments to allow for the drilling of the horizontal well. This search was ultimately unsuccessful, and the consortium was unable to pass the negotiated Go/No-go Decision Point #1, which resulted in the termination of the project on July 31, 2021.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrating static PRA information with risk informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) simulation methods

The overall objective of the project was to develop a computationally feasible and user-friendly mechanized process to integrate traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and dynamic PRA (DPRA) results. Starting with the systematic identification of items in an existing PRA that need dynamic augmentation, the project used a generic 4-loop pressurized reactor (PWR) and 3-loop PWR as example plants. Station blackout (SBO) and large break loss of coolant accident SBLOCA) were selected as the example initiating events. Using the traditional event-tree (ET)/fault-tree (FT) methodology augmented by dynamic evet tree approach, the potential consequences of the initiating events were simulated with RELAP-3D and MELCOR/RASCAL codes to cover Level 1 through Level 3 of PRA. RAVEN and ADAPT software were used to generate Level 1 simulations with RELAP-3D and Level 2/3 simulations with MELCOR (Level 2)/RASCAL (Level 3), respectively. Example branching conditions (BCs) for SBO included AC power recovery time, valve repair failure time, reactor coolant pump leak time/break size and emergency power supply duration to a total of 9. Example BCs for LOCA included off-site power recovery time, diesel generator power recovery time, auxiliary feed water system operation time, safety relief valve failure to open upon demand, reactor coolant pump seal break time and size to a total of 21. Each RELAP-3D simulation (9,587 scenarios) was labelled OK or Core Damage based on the maximum allowed peak clad temperature (2,100oF). Each MELCOR simulation (4610 scenarios) was labeled as Bin over 10rem or Bin 0-10rem based on the dose at the site boundary. The scenarios were clustered based on the criteria above using the mean shift methodology. Classical PRA (CPRA) and DPRA results were compared to identify the ET sequences that need DPRA augmentation. Several approaches were proposed for the incorporation of these sequences into CPRA using clustering with the mean shift methodology, restructuring the CPRA ETs by adding new BCs/sequences, and using the concept of a limit surface. Procedures for decision making regarding the possible consequences of an initiating event (e.g. core damage or not, site evacuation or not) were developed using a convolutional neural network (CNN), a recurrent neural network (RNN) and a transformer neural network (TNN). The project has led to two PhD degrees, three archival journal papers and five refereed conference proceedings.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Phenomenon Identification and Ranking Table Analysis for Thermal Energy Storage Technologies Integration with Advanced Nuclear Reactors

This report provides an overview of the Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) analysis of thermal energy storage (TES) systems for possible integration with various types of advanced nuclear power plants (NPPs). Advanced NPPs will potentially need to operate in environments where power generation flexibility is more highly valued than the stability or baseload generation capability for conventional demand curves. TES systems would enable NPPs to respond nimbly to market variability and could also position advanced NPPs to participate differently in restructured markets, thus further enhancing their economic competitiveness. TES systems could also benefit the electric grid by eliminating the need for peaking plants, as well as by improving the economic performance of baseload NPPs. While TES technologies afford a unique opportunity to address many of these challenges, the applicability of these systems is also complicated by the fact that various advanced NPPs are designed differently, each with its own temperature range, size, operating fluids, and operating conditions. Hence, TES systems face significant barriers to investment, as more information on their compatibility and performance metrics is needed to quantify the advantages provided by each, as well as the challenges these technologies might face if coupled with a particular type of advanced NPP. This report explores the possibility of integrating a wide variety of TES technologies with various categories of advanced NPPs, based on their operating characteristics. To help users and developers decide which TES technology is best suited to a particular category of advanced NPPs, this research developed a PIRT of 10 TES systems that could potentially be coupled with advanced NPPs, which themselves are divided into nine categories based on their operating conditions. Each advanced NPP category is evaluated for compatibility with the 10 TES systems by assembling and discussing a database of information concerning 10 engineering questions (defined herein in as figures of merit [FOMs]), such as: technology readiness level (TRL), temperature compatibility, energy density, size, cycle frequency, ramp time, realignment frequency, geographic needs, environmental impact, and interventions. By assembling a database of information concerning the TES technologies’ compatibility with various advanced NPP systems, this study can help developers acquaint themselves with a particular TES technology before choosing to build a new integrated installation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cooling Egypt: Cost and benefits of room air conditioner efficiency improvement in Egypt

Egypt is one of the largest countries in the Middle East and North Africa region with a population of a total of 106 million (as of July 2022). Increasing urbanization, population growth, and increasing temperatures will likely continue to drive demand for electricity from air conditioning, with corresponding negative impacts on the peak load, air quality, and greenhouse gas emissions from refrigerant use and energy consumption. Since 2003, Egypt has adopted a standards and labeling program for various appliances, and has improved its room air conditioner (RAC) energy efficiency requirements in 2016 and 2017. However, its market is still dominated by inefficient fixed-speed drive (FSD) RACs due to a price-sensitive market. Seasonal metrics such as Cooling Season Performance Factor (CSPF) measure the energy efficiency of FSD and variable-speed drive (VSD) RACs on the same scale. Leading markets, most notably China, have already adopted a new MEPS in 2020 and 2022, which align largely with the United for Efficiency (U4E) Model Regulations Guidelines. India has also adopted a CSPF metric. Both India and China are now experiencing (1) increased demand and consumption of higher efficiency VSD RACs, as well as (2) a corresponding drop in prices from the economies of scale of production of these higher efficiency RACs. Because China is a leading manufacturer in the global air conditioner (AC) market, its adoption of the model U4E regulations have effectively raised the energy efficiency of the ACs in the global market. To achieve the benefits of taking a similar approach to Egypt’s market, we offer the following recommendations: 1. Adopt a common metric to measure the efficiency of both FSD and VSD RACs 2. Raise the stringency of MEPS to the level of the U4E Model Regulation Guidelines 3. Restructure the labeling program from the “A++” labeling scheme to a simpler A through E or a star-rating program 4. Strengthen the compliance regime governing the Egyptian AC MEPS 5. Assist small and medium AC manufacturers in Egypt to transition manufacturing lines to produce low-cost, high-efficiency VSD RACs. Adopting these recommendations would reduce Egypt’s electricity consumption to 11 TWh in 2030 and 89 TWh in 2050—with corresponding carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions and avoided generation capacity requirements compared to the baseline.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model-Based Diagnostics and Mitigation of Cyber Threats

The report summarizes key tasks performed to develop a toolkit for detecting cyber-attack events in instrumentation and control (I&C) systems of nuclear power plants. The toolkit connects the state-of-the-art GPWR Simulator with the RELAP5 code providing best-estimate nuclear steam supply system (NSSS) analyses, via the application programming interface (API), and allows users to introduce potential cyber-attack scenarios into power plant operational simulation. This summary for the project reflects topical reports submitted during the project as well as a journal paper published in 2022. The focus areas of the summary include: (1) modeling I&C systems for the AP1000 Generation III+ nuclear plant and GPWR simulator, (2) simulation and monitoring of plant response to cyber-attack events, (3) API structure for the toolkit interfacing the GPWR simulator and RELAP5 code, and (4) restructuring of the three-loop NSSS software of GPWR to model the two-loop AP1000 structure. Discussed in some details are (a) the attack tree analysis assessing the susceptibility of the AP1000 I&C system, resulting in reactor trips, in terms of the attack possibility and component sensitivity and (b) realistic estimation of the time to steam generator trip due to cyber-intrusions in the GPWR Simulator. Finally, sample demonstrations of the cyber-security tool kit, in the form of the GPWR-RELAP5 API, are summarized.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗