Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “emission modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 577 records · Page 32

Quantifying health benefits of sustainable aviation fuels: Modeling decreased ultrafine particle emissions and associated impacts on communities near the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport

Exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP, ≤100 nm) is an emerging health concern linked to premature mortality, with jet fuel combustion identified as a significant source of UFPs near airports. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) adoption has the potential to reduce aviation-related UFPs and may particularly benefit populations who reside nearby. However, assessing aviation-specific impacts on health remains challenging due to the lack of tools capable of addressing: fine-scale exposure evaluation, novel ambient pollutants, and groups with increased exposure or susceptibility. We develop and apply a method to estimate reductions in mortality associated with aviation-related UFP reductions at the Seattle-Tacoma (SEA-TAC) International Airport under SAF adoption scenarios, with a focus on near-airport communities. Using UFP exposure surfaces generated from AERMOD modeling, flight count data, and UFP measurements, we evaluated UFP reductions under various control scenarios. We estimated mortality reductions by combining this with population data, baseline mortality, and a hazard ratio of 1.012 (95 % confidence interval: 1.010, 1.015) per interquartile range increment of 2723 particles/cm 3 . Our analysis included 412 census tracts representing almost 1.5 million adults. Baseline aviation-related UFP exposures averaged 1145 (SD: 277) particles/cm 3 . The highest baseline concentrations and subsequent reductions under SAF scenarios were near SEA-TAC. Mortality case reductions averaged between 3.1 (95 % range: 2.5–3.7) for a 5 % UFP reduction to 31.0 (24.6–37.4) for a 50 % reduction, with corresponding mortality rate reductions of 0.2 (0.2–0.3) to 2.1 (1.7–2.5) cases per 100,000 people per year. Mortality rate reductions were larger among populations residing closer to SEA-TAC, including those that were Hispanic or Latino, below-poverty, and did not identify as White. Reducing aviation-related UFPs through SAF adoption could lead to lower mortality, particularly in near-airport communities. This reproducible approach can be adapted to other settings to evaluate health benefits from aviation-related UFP reductions.

Aviation-related air pollution↗

Impact of stratospheric aircraft emissions on ozone: A two dimensional model study

Atmospheric perturbations caused by the emission of nitrogen oxides from a projected fleet of stratospheric aircraft are studied with a two dimensional chemistry, transport model. Photochemistry of the lower stratosphere, the region where these aircraft may fly, is now known to be influenced by heterogeneous reactions involving sulfuric acid aerosols. This study examines the sensitivity of the atmospheric effects of aircraft to heterogeneous reactions. Information of background aerosols based on the SAGE 2 measurements have been used in the parameterization of the heterogeneous conversion rates. It is found that heterogeneous reactions make the lower stratospheric ozone less sensitive to perturbations in the odd nitrogen level. The calculated reduction in global ozone due to NO(x) injection from a fleet of Mach 2.4 aircraft is 1.28 percent if gas phase reactions only are considered in the model, and 0.06 percent if heterogeneous reactions are included.

Natarajan, M.↗

SWCX Emission from the Helium Focusing Cone - Model to Data Comparison

A model for heliospheric solar wind charge exchange (SWCX) X-ray emission is applied to a series of XMM-Newton observations of the interplanetary focusing cone of interstellar helium. The X-ray data are from three coupled observations of the South Ecliptic Pole (SEP, to observe the cone) and the Hubble Deep Field-North (HDFN. to monitor global variations of the SWCX emission due to variations in the solar wind) from the period 24 November to 15 December 2003. There is good qualitative agreement between the model predictions and thc data with the maximum SWCX flux observed at an ecliptic longitude of approx. 72deg, consistent with the central longitude of the He cone. We observe a total excess of 2.1 +/- 1.3 LU in the O VII line and 2.0 +/- 0.9 LU in the 0 VIII line. However. the SWCX emission model, which was adjusted for solar wind conditions appropriate for late 2003, predicts an excess from the He cone of only 0.5 LU and 0.2 LU, respectively, in the O VII and O VIII lines. We discuss thc model to data comparison and provide possible explanations for the discrepancies. We also qualitatively reexamine our SWCX n~ocicl predictions in the 1/4 keV band with data from the ROSAT All-Sky Survey towards the North and South Ecliptic Poles, when the He cone was probably first detected in soft X-rays.

Koutroumpa, D.↗

Calculating Methane Emissions from Offshore Facilities Using Bottom-Up Methods

With changing demands in regulation, understanding methane emissions from offshore oil and gas production infrastructure has become increasingly important. Reported emissions from facilities in the Gulf of Mexico range from zero to thousands of tons of methane per hour, but these is currently no clear understanding of how this range compares to expected emissions from normally operating facilities. To generate realistic emission estimates, we create two bottom-up models that simulate emissions from facilities operating in the Gulf of Mexico. We estimate type 1 prototypical facilities (typically unmanned, older, lower-producing platforms in shallow water with little processing equipment, compressors, or storage tanks) to emit an average of 13 kg CH 4 h −1 , which corresponds to a loss of 2.7% of the average facility production. Type 2 prototypical facilities (continuously manned, higher production and operate in deeper water with processing equipment, oil storage tanks, compressors and power generation) emit an average of 88 kg CH 4 h −1 , which corresponds to a loss of 2.5% of production. The average measured emission from type 1 facilities was 18 kg CH 4 h −1 with a median production loss estimated at 8%. The average measured emission from type 2 facilities was 36 kg CH 4 h −1 with a median production loss estimated at 2.4%. Using emission factors that consider the long-tail emission distribution partly reconciles the difference between modelled and measured emission estimates, but we suggest the current the fugitive emission estimate may be an underestimate and more data on the number and size of fugitive emissions could explain differences between the modelled and measured emission estimate. We suggest the bottom-up approach described here that uses production data coupled with facility equipment could be used to identify facilities that have abnormally large measured emissions, caused by methodological failure or larger than expected fugitive emissions, which should be targeted for further evaluation resulting in remeasurement or identification of source type so that a more accurate estimates can be made on the absolute emission.

bottom-up↗

IUE observations of longitudinal and temporal variations in the Jovian auroral emission

The IUE's short wavelength spectrograph has been used to monitor the auroral emissions from Jupiter's northern hemisphere, yielding eight observations between January 1981 and January 1982 of H I Lyman-alpha and the H2 Lyman and Werner bands. Attention is given to an apparent periodic emission flux fluctuation, through detailed modeling of the emission geometry. Two possible auroral zones are defined at the north pole by mapping the magnetic field lines from the Io torus and the magnetotail onto the planet's atmosphere. The observed variation in flux with central meridian longitude is not consistent with a uniform brightness as a function of magnetic longitude in either auroral zone. The data can be fitted by confining the emissions to the region of the northern torus auroral zone, in qualitative agreement with the magnetic anomaly model. A similar emission from the magnetotail auroral zone cannot be ruled out.

Skinner, T. E.↗

Io - A volcanic flow model for the hot spot emission spectrum and a thermostatic mechanism

The hot spots of Io are modeled as a steady state of active areas at 600 K, continuing creation of new lava flows and calderas, cooling off of recent flows and calderas, and the cessation of radiation of old flows and calderas from the accumulation of insulation added by resurfacing. There are three adjustable parameters in this model: the area of active sources at 600 K, the rate of production of new area that is cooling, and the temperature of cessation of emission as the result of resurfacing. The resurfacing rate sets constrains on this last parameter. The emission spectrum computed with reasonable values for these parameters is an excellent match to the spectrum from recent observations. A thermostatic mechanism is described whereby the volcanic activity is turned on for a long period of time and is then turned off for a nearly equal period. As a result the presently observed internal heat flow of approximately 1.5 W/sq m may be as much as twice the rate of production of internal heat. Thus the restrictions placed on theories of tidal dissipation by the observed heat flow may be partially relieved.

Sinton, V. M.↗

Luminosity dependence in the ratio of X-ray to infrared emission of QSOs

The correlation of X-ray and near-infrared luminosity is studied for a sample of radio-quiet QSOs. The X-ray to infrared ratio is found to decrease as the infrared luminosity increases. No preference is found between the correlations of X-ray luminosity with optical or infrared luminosity. This implies that optical and infrared emission are equally good predictors of X-ray emission. Source models which directly link infrared and X-ray emission are discussed, and a preference is found for a specific synchrotron self-Compton model. This model predicts the correct luminosity dependence of the X-ray to infrared ratio if certain conditions apply.

Worrall, D. M.↗

Numerical Modeling of Transport of Biomass Burning Emissions on South America

Our research efforts have addressed theoretical and numerical modeling of sources emissions and transport processes of trace gases and aerosols emitted by biomass burning on the central of Brazil and Amazon basin. For this effort we coupled all Eulerian transport model with the mesoscale atmospheric model RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System).

RibeirodeFreitas, Saulo↗

Integrated Modeling of U.S. Agricultural Soil Emissions of Reactive Nitrogen and Associated Impacts on Air Pollution, Health, and Climate

Agricultural soils are leading sources of reactive nitrogen (Nr) species including nitrogen oxides (NO x ), ammonia (NH 3 ), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O). Here, the propensity of NO x and NH 3 to generate ozone and fine particulate matter (PM) and associated impacts on health are highly variable, whereas the climate impacts of long-lived N 2 O are independent of emission timing and location. However, these impacts have rarely been compared on a spatially-resolved, monetized basis. In this study, we update the nitrogen scheme in an agroecosystem model to simulate the agricultural emissions of Nr from across the United States. We then apply a reduced-form air pollution health effects model to assess air quality impacts from NO x and NH 3 and a social cost of N 2 O to assess the climate impacts. Assuming an $\$$8.2 million Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) and a $\$$13,100/ton social cost of N 2 O, the air quality impacts are a factor of ~7 to 15 times as large as the climate impacts in heavily populated coastal regions, whereas the ratios are closer to 2.5 in sparsely populated regions. Our results show that air pollution, health, and climate should be considered jointly in future assessments of how farming practices affect Nr emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global Air Quality and Climate

Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O3 and SOA.

ozone↗

Modeling suggests fossil fuel emissions have been driving increased land carbon uptake since the turn of the 20th Century

Terrestrial vegetation removes CO 2 from the atmosphere; an important climate regulation service that slows global warming. This 119 Pg C per annum transfer of CO 2 into plants—gross primary productivity (GPP)—is the largest land carbon flux globally. While understanding past and anticipated future GPP changes is necessary to support carbon management, the factors driving long-term changes in GPP are largely unknown. In this study, we show that 1901 to 2010 changes in GPP have been dominated by anthropogenic activity. Our dual constraint attribution approach provides three insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of GPP change. First, anthropogenic controls on GPP change have increased from 57% (1901 decade) to 94% (2001 decade) of the vegetated land surface. Second, CO 2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition are the most important drivers of change, 19.8 and 11.1 Pg C per annum (2001 decade) respectively, especially in the tropics and industrialized areas since the 1970’s. Third, changes in climate have functioned as fertilization to enhance GPP (1.4 Pg C per annum in the 2001 decade). These findings suggest that, from a land carbon balance perspective, the Anthropocene began over 100 years ago and that global change drivers have allowed GPP uptake to keep pace with anthropogenic emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Nature of Jets in Double-peaked Emission-line AGN in the KISSR Sample

Double-peaked emission-line AGN (DPAGN) have been regarded as binary black hole candidates. We present here results from parsec-scale radio observations with the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) of five DPAGN belonging to the KISSR sample of emission-line galaxies. This work concludes our pilot study of nine type 2 Seyfert and LINER DPAGN from the KISSR sample. In the nine sources, dual compact cores are only detected in the “offset AGN,” KISSR 102. However, the overall incidence of jets in the eight sources that were detected with the VLBA is ≥ 60%. We find a difference in the “missing flux density” going from the Very Large Array to VLBA scales between Seyferts and LINERs, with LINERs showing less missing flux density on parsec-scales. Using the emission-line modeling code, MAPPINGS III, we find that the emission lines are likely to be influenced by jets in 5/9 sources. Furthermore, jet-medium interaction is the likely cause of the emission-line splitting observed in the SDSS spectra of these sources. Jets in radio-quiet AGN are therefore energetically capable of influencing their parsec- and kpcscale environments, which makes them agents of “radio AGN feedback” (similar to radio-loud AGN).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗