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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Towards an Introspective Dynamic Model of Globally Distributed Computing Infrastructures

Large-scale scientific collaborations like ATLAS, Belle II, CMS, DUNE, and others involve hundreds of research institutes and thousands of researchers spread across the globe. These experiments generate petabytes of data, with volumes soon expected to reach exabytes. Consequently, there is a growing need for computation, including structured data processing from raw data to consumer-ready derived data, extensive Monte Carlo simulation campaigns, and a wide range of end-user analysis. To manage these computational and storage demands, centralized workflow and data management systems are implemented. However, decisions regarding data placement and payload allocation are often made disjointly and via heuristic means. A significant obstacle in adopting more effective heuristic or AI-driven solutions is the absence of a quick and reliable introspective dynamic model to evaluate and refine alternative approaches. In this study, we aim to develop such an interactive system using real-world data. By examining job execution records from the PanDA workflow management system, we have pinpointed key performance indicators such as queuing time, error rate, and the extent of remote data access. The dataset includes five months of activity. Additionally, we are creating a generative AI model to simulate time series of payloads, which incorporate visible features like category, event count, and submitting group, as well as hidden features like the total computational load—derived from existing PanDA records and computing site capabilities. These hidden features, which are not visible to job allocators, whether heuristic or AI-driven, influence factors such as queuing times and data movement.

kilic, Ozgur Ozan [Brookhaven National Laboratory ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rotated-Droop Control for Enhanced Stability and Power Decoupling in Microgrids With Complex Line Impedances

Classical droop control in microgrids predominantly assumes inductive line impedance, which simplifies implementation but causes power coupling and steady-state errors in systems with resistive and inductive lines. This paper proposes a rotated-droop control strategy for grid-forming inverters that reformulates the power equations by incorporating the magnitude and angle of the line impedance within a rotated reference frame. This method enhances the decoupling of active and reactive power dynamics without increasing complexity or requiring communication links. A small-signal state-space model was created to capture the dynamic behavior of the system under varying impedance parameters, preserving the original droop gains by rotating the power control structure. This allows eigenvalue-based stability analysis and enhances damping and transient performance. Simulation and experimental results validated the improved power-sharing performance, faster response, and robustness of the proposed method under different impedance conditions. This approach maintains the decentralized structure of the conventional droop control while enabling greater adaptability and scalability, making it suitable for modern inverter-based microgrids with dynamic topologies.

Campo-Ossa, Daniel Dario [Univ. of Puerto Rico, Ag↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heavy-Duty Nonroad Material Handler Electrification Part 1: Real-World Drive Cycle Development

Knowing a detailed operating cycle is critical for developing and testing equipment. Operating cycles can be separated by two clear distinctions: (1) regulatory or non-regulatory and (2) application at the engine-only or full machine level. The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Nonroad Transient Cycle (NRTC) may be a good representation of engine use in many types of equipment, but there is a gap in standardized and validated drive cycles specifically for nonroad material handlers. Lacking a standardized drive cycle makes it difficult to accurately benchmark machine performance and validate new powertrain technologies. The objective of this investigation is to illustrate the development of a custom drive cycle augmented with real-world customer use data that serves multiple purposes: (1) understand the range of operation and utilization that formulated inputs for electrified architecture analysis and (2) develop a repetitive and consistent maneuver to establish baseline energy consumption enabling equivalent comparison to future electrified prototype builds. This article presents a solution specifically for a 23-ton nonroad material handler in which material handling, machine transport, and extended idle were homologated to form representative short cycles defined by machine velocity and hydraulic cylinder position. The most intensive material handling short cycles had a load factor of 40% and an average fuel rate of 16 L/h. Combined with a visual aid, the short cycles exhibited low variability, having less than 5% root mean square (RMS) error in lift and reach position with respect to the average. The machine’s performance on these short cycles at the Advanced Power Systems Research Center (APSRC) was compared to results from two real-world customer locations operating the instrumented test machine in a cyclical manner, and for similar ground conditions were found to be comparable in fuel consumption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Equilibrium Core Model for Micro Pebble Bed Reactors Using OpenMC

Estimating the equilibrium state for pebble bed reactors (PBRs) presents complex challenges as it requires simultaneous consideration of changes in the pebbles’ movement as well as their fuel compositions. Whereas traditional approaches use multigroup diffusion codes for neutronics calculations of PBRs’ equilibrium state, the double-heterogeneity of PBRs complicates neutron cross-section generation. Continuous-energy Monte Carlo (MC) methods are better suited for detailed PBR analysis because of their natural handling of double-heterogeneity, but they demand substantially more computational resources. Here, this study introduces a novel method for efficiently estimating the equilibrium state in small and micro PBRs with reduced computational cost. The method is anticipated to accelerate the processes of core design and performing parametric studies for utilizing advanced fuel and structural materials. The HTR-10 reactor design was used for validating the method’s predictions and evaluating its computational efficiency. When compared to reference calculation values from the literature, criticality (k-effective) was predicted to be approximately within the margin of error of the MC transport calculation, average core power density (in megawatts per cubic meter) was predicted within 2.5% relative error, and maximum thermal flux (10 13 n/cm 2 .s −1 ) was predicted within 1.8% relative error. The calculated inventory of fission products and fuel composition in the equilibrium core were within 15% and 16.6%, respectively, when compared to reported values from the literature. The difference is attributed to variance in the considered values of the core temperature, which was found to significantly affect the depletion analyses.

Equilibrium core↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust error calibration for serial crystallography

Serial crystallography is an important technique with unique abilities to resolve enzymatic transition states, minimize radiation damage to sensitive metalloenzymes and perform de novo structure determination from micrometre-sized crystals. This technique requires the merging of data from thousands of crystals, making manual identification of errant crystals unfeasible. cctbx.xfel.merge uses filtering to remove problematic data. However, this process is imperfect, and data reduction must be robust to outliers. We add robustness to cctbx.xfel.merge at the step of uncertainty determination for reflection intensities. This step is a critical point for robustness because it is the first step where the data sets are considered as a whole, as opposed to individual lattices. Robustness is conferred by reformulating the error-calibration procedure to have fewer and less stringent statistical assumptions and incorporating the ability to down-weight low-quality lattices. We then apply this method to five macromolecular XFEL data sets and observe the improvements to each. The appropriateness of the intensity uncertainties is demonstrated through internal consistency. This is performed through theoretical CC 1/2 and I /σ relationships and by weighted second moments, which use Wilson's prior to connect intensity uncertainties with their expected distribution. This work presents new mathematical tools to analyze intensity statistics and demonstrates their effectiveness through the often underappreciated process of uncertainty analysis.

Mittan-Moreau, David W.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characteristics of the IBEX Ribbon and Their Implications for a Source Region Outside the Heliopause

This paper presents a comprehensive exploration of the Interstellar Boundary Explorer energetic neutral atom (ENA) ribbon, focusing on its spatial and temporal variations over 14 yr. Methodological advancements, including a refined map modeling procedure and a new ribbon separation technique with appropriate error propagation, enable a detailed investigation of the ribbon’s features. Utilizing statistically robust metrics, this study reveals details of the ribbon across energy and time. Key findings include energy- and time-dependent variations in flux, angular radius, ribbon profile width, and higher moments. By applying these metrics, we reveal new complexity to the evolution of the ribbon over time, highlighting the nuanced relationship between it and the solar wind. Furthermore, the study examines for the first time the ribbon as it passes through the starboard/heliotail region (Lon EC 120°–180°), revealing properties distinct from other portions of the ribbon. The analysis uncovers an anticorrelation between ribbon width and flux, which provides quantitative support for a multisource ribbon created by a combination of solar wind neutrals that generate a spatiall narrow ribbon component and heliosheath neutrals giving rise to a broad component. Finally, differences in the temporal evolution of the ENA flux at different energies provide additional support that the location of the ribbon source region is beyond the heliopause.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-n Rydberg transition spectroscopy for heavy impurity transport studies in W7-X (invited)

Here, we present a novel spectroscopy approach to investigate impurity transport by analyzing line-radiation following high-n Rydberg transitions. While high-n Rydberg states of impurity ions are unlikely to be populated via impact excitation, they can be accessed by charge exchange (CX) reactions along the neutral beams in high-temperature plasmas. Hence, localized radiation of highly ionized impurities, free of passive contributions, can be observed at multiple wavelengths in the visible range. For the analysis and modeling of the observed Rydberg transitions, a technique for calculating effective emission coefficients is presented that can well reproduce the energy dependence seen in datasets available on the OPEN-ADAS database. By using the rate coefficients and comparing modeling results with the new high-n Rydberg CX measurements, impurity transport coefficients are determined with well-documented 2σ confidence intervals for the first time. This demonstrates that high-n Rydberg spectroscopy provides important constraints on the determination of impurity transport coefficients. By additionally considering Bolometer measurements, which provide constraints on the overall impurity emissivity and, therefore, impurity densities, error bars can be reduced even further.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Convergent Manufacturing of Large-Scale Components for Nuclear Applications, via Additive Manufacturing and Powder Metallurgy Hot Isostatic Pressing

Powder metallurgy (PM)–hot isostatic pressing (PM-HIP) has long been recognized as a powerful route for producing fully dense, near net shape metallic components. By consolidating powders under high temperature and pressure, HIP provides isotropic properties, uniform microstructures, and scalability to complex geometries that are vital for sectors such as aerospace, energy, and nuclear power. Yet despite these advantages, the technology has remained constrained by costly trial and error canister fabrication, limitations of conventional forging, and incomplete knowledge about how the canister design influences final part properties. Additive manufacturing (AM), by contrast, thrives on design freedom and geometric flexibility but struggles with speed, scalability, and cost when applied to very large structures. The research presented in this report investigated how a convergent manufacturing approach, combining AM with PM-HIP, can merge the strengths of both technologies, leveraging AM’s flexibility for canister design and HIP’s consolidation capability to deliver reliable, large, and complex parts. The work progressed through three case studies that built on one another in scale and complexity. Small cylindrical canisters fabricated by conventional methods, laser powder bed fusion, and directed energy deposition were filled with stainless steel powders and subjected to HIP. The resulting parts demonstrated near-full density and mechanical properties on par with wrought stainless steel, showing for the first time that AM canisters can be a direct substitute for conventional ones without sacrificing quality. The next step involved a medium-scale, noncentrosymmetric T-valve, which is an enclosed, multibranch geometry that tested the limits of AM + PM-HIP integration. The T-valve achieved predictable shrinkage and uniform densification, confirming feasibility for enclosed designs. However, this study also revealed oxide inclusions and interfacial challenges at the AM + HIP boundary, underscoring the critical importance of controlling interface chemistry and employing robust, in situ strategies, such as melt pool monitoring and thermal monitoring, coupled with nondestructive evaluation techniques such as x-ray computed tomography. Finally, the effort culminated in fabricating a large-scale impeller weighing nearly 2000 lb and spanning 5 ft in diameter. Produced via multirobot wire arc AM and hot isostatic pressed to near-full density, the impeller validated industrial-scale feasibility. Predictive models closely matched experimental shrinkage, tensile properties were spatially uniform across the component, and the AM + PM-HIP interface proved mechanically sound despite the presence of oxide-decorated prior particle boundaries. This large-scale demonstration is a major milestone, showing that hybrid AM + PM‑HIP can reliably deliver components at reactor-relevant scales. Collectively, these studies charted a logical pathway: small-scale work built scientific confidence, medium-scale work highlighted opportunities and challenges, and large-scale work proved industrial impact. The overarching conclusion of this report is that AM + PM-HIP should not be seen as a replacement for forging but as a complementary pathway that provides the US with flexibility, resilience, and new options for manufacturing nuclear-grade components. Looking ahead, several directions emerge as critical to sustaining progress. Predictive modeling must become faster, more accessible, and more accurate, with digital twins and machine learning reducing reliance on trial and error. Powders and alloys must be optimized for HIP, with improved cleanliness, reduced oxides, and tailored chemistries that enhance creep, fatigue, and irradiation resistance. Interfaces between AM and HIP regions must be better engineered through coatings, machining strategies, and surface treatments to mitigate oxide formation and ensure reliable bonding to explore opportunities for HIP of targeted compositional parts, as well as multimaterial HIP cladding applications. Monitoring and nondestructive evaluation need to expand, incorporating multimodal sensors, x-ray computed tomography, and real-time data integration through platforms such as Pelican. At the same time, the pathway to industrial adoption requires techno-economic analysis, machinability studies, and qualification frameworks aligned with industry and regulatory standards. Finally, workforce and academic engagement must be strengthened. Programs that train technicians and engineers for US Navy and US Department of Energy manufacturing challenges should be paired with academic partnerships to support fundamental research, with open sharing of non-export-controlled data to accelerate innovation and build the next generation of experts. In conclusion, this report demonstrates that hybrid AM + PM-HIP is scientifically viable and strategically important. By combining the design agility of AM with the consolidation strength of HIP and embedding modeling, monitoring, and workforce development, this approach provided a transformative new capability for US manufacturing. The path forward is clear: hybrid AM + PM-HIP is not just a promising research direction but is also potentially an industrially relevant pathway that can reshape how nuclear-grade components are designed, qualified, and deployed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling the transferability of PLSR models for leaf trait estimation: lessons from a comprehensive analysis with a novel global dataset

Leaf traits are essential for understanding many physiological and ecological processes. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) models with leaf spectroscopy are widely applied for trait estimation, but their transferability across space, time, and plant functional types (PFTs) remains unclear. We compiled a novel dataset of paired leaf traits and spectra, with 47 393 records for >700 species and eight PFTs at 101 globally distributed locations across multiple seasons. Using this dataset, we conducted an unprecedented comprehensive analysis to assess the transferability of PLSR models in estimating leaf traits. While PLSR models demonstrate commendable performance in predicting chlorophyll content, carotenoid, leaf water, and leaf mass per area prediction within their training data space, their efficacy diminishes when extrapolating to new contexts. Specifically, extrapolating to locations, seasons, and PFTs beyond the training data leads to reduced R 2 (0.12–0.49, 0.15–0.42, and 0.25–0.56) and increased NRMSE (3.58–18.24%, 6.27–11.55%, and 7.0–33.12%) compared with nonspatial random cross-validation. The results underscore the importance of incorporating greater spectral diversity in model training to boost its transferability. These findings highlight potential errors in estimating leaf traits across large spatial domains, diverse PFTs, and time due to biased validation schemes, and provide guidance for future field sampling strategies and remote sensing applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Emerging low-cloud feedback and adjustment in global satellite observations

From mid-2003 to mid-2024, a global decrease in low-cloud amount enhanced the absorption of solar radiation by 0.22±0.07 W m −2 per decade (±1σ range), accelerating the energy imbalance trend during that period (0.44 W m −2 per decade). Through controlling factor analysis, here we show that the low-cloud trend is due to a combination of cloud feedback and adjustments to greenhouse gases and aerosols (respectively 0.09±0.02, 0.05±0.03, and 0.03±0.03 W m −2 per decade), which jointly account for 74 % of the trend. The contribution of natural climate variability is weak but uncertain (0.01±0.08 W m −2 per decade), owing to a poorly constrained trend in boundary-layer inversion strength. Importantly, the observed low-cloud radiative trend lies well within the range of values simulated by contemporary global climate models under conditions close to present day. Any systematic model error in the representation of present-day global energy imbalance trends is thus likely to originate in processes unrelated to low clouds.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Can Large Language Models Understand Intermediate Representations?

Intermediate Representations (IRs) are essential in compiler design and program analysis, yet their comprehension by Large Language Models (LLMs) remains underexplored. This paper presents a pioneering empirical study to investigate the capabilities of LLMs, including GPT-4, GPT-3, Gemma 2, LLaMA 3.1, and Code Llama, in understanding IRs. We analyze their performance across four tasks: Control Flow Graph (CFG) reconstruction, decompilation, code summarization, and execution reasoning. Our results indicate that while LLMs demonstrate competence in parsing IR syntax and recognizing high-level structures, they struggle with control flow reasoning, execution semantics, and loop handling. Specifically, they often misinterpret branching instructions, omit critical IR operations, and rely on heuristic-based reasoning, leading to errors in CFG reconstruction, IR decompilation, and execution reasoning. The study underscores the necessity for IR-specific enhancements in LLMs, recommending fine-tuning on structured IR datasets and integration of explicit control flow models to augment their comprehension and handling of IR-related tasks.

Jiang, Hailong↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dual particle imaging using time-of-flight neutron classification

Fast-neutron imaging technology is well-suited for passive nuclear material monitoring, secondary inspection of flagged cargo, and wide-area search for lost neutron sources. However, imaging systems that use pulse shape discrimination for event classification require complex pulse waveform analysis. In this work, we evaluate time-of-flight (TOF) based particle classification as an alternative solution for fast-neutron imaging by classifying all events with a TOF above a maximum threshold as neutrons. We measured a Cf-252 source next to Cs-137 using a 12-bar organic-glass scintillator array. By varying the TOF thresholds for neutron identification, we demonstrate a clear trade-off between event yield and backprojection image fidelity, with stricter thresholds improving precision at the cost of statistics, TOF thresholded data generated an image that predicted the neutron source direction with 20% reduced mean central angle prediction error compared to a traditional pulse shape discrimination (PSD) method with comparable event count. Time-of-flight particle classification shows promise as an alternative to pulse shape discrimination systems for fast neutron imaging systems looking to minimize costs and size of electronics with comparable imaging quality. The sources used demonstrate that the method is effective in classifying measured neutrons in a measurement environment with 150 μCi Cs-137 and 1.6 × 10 6 n/s Cf-252 sources positioned at distances of 66 cm and 81 cm from the detector. Additionally, the method classifies low-energy neutron events that pulse shape discrimination removes, so a combination of both methods would result in a higher overall neutron event efficiency.

Heriot, William [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantification and visualization of uncertainties in reconstructed penumbral images of implosions at Omega

Penumbral imaging is a technique used in plasma diagnostics in which a radiation source shines through one or more large apertures onto a detector. To interpret a penumbral image, one must reconstruct it to recover the original source. The inferred source always has some error due to noise in the image and uncertainty in the instrument geometry. Interpreting the inferred source thus requires quantification of that inference’s uncertainty. Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms have been used to quantify uncertainty for similar problems but have never been used for the inference of the shape of an image. Because of this, there are no commonly accepted ways of visualizing uncertainty in two-dimensional data. This paper demonstrates the application of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm to the reconstruction of penumbral images of fusion implosions and presents ways to visualize the uncertainty in the reconstructed source. This methodology enables more rigorous analysis of penumbral images than has been done in the past.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Gravitational waves and galaxies cross-correlations: a forecast on GW biases for future detectors

ABSTRACT Gravitational waves (GWs) have rapidly become important cosmological probes since their first detection in 2015. As the number of detected events continues to rise, upcoming instruments like Einstein Telescope (ET) and Cosmic Explorer (CE) will observe millions of compact binary mergers. These detections, coupled with galaxy surveys by instruments such as the Dark Spectroscopic Energy Instrument (DESI), Euclid, and the Vera Rubin Observatory, will provide unique information on the large-scale structure of the universe by cross-correlating GWs with the distribution of galaxies hosting them. In this paper, we focus on how cross-correlations constrain the clustering bias of GWs emitted by the coalescence of binary black holes (BBHs). This parameter links BBHs to the underlying dark matter distribution, hence informing us how they populate galaxies. Using a multitracer approach, we forecast the precision of these measurements under different survey combinations. Our results indicate that current GW detectors will have limited precision, with measurement errors as high as $\displaystyle \sim 50~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$. However, third-generation detectors like ET, when cross-correlated with Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) data, can improve clustering bias measurements to within 2.5 per cent. Furthermore, we demonstrate that these cross-correlations can enable a per cent-level measurement of the magnification lensing effect on GWs. Despite this, there is a degeneracy between magnification and evolution biases, which hinders the precision of both. This degeneracy is most effectively addressed by assuming knowledge of one bias or targeting an optimal redshift range of $\displaystyle 1 \lt z \lt 2.5$. Our analysis opens new avenues for studying the distribution of BBHs and testing the nature of gravity through large-scale structure.

Zazzera, Stefano (ORCID:0000000158979221)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Block Lanczos algorithm for lattice QCD spectroscopy and matrix elements

Recent work introduced a new framework for analyzing correlation functions with improved convergence and signal-to-noise properties, as well as rigorous quantification of excited-state effects, based on the Lanczos algorithm and spurious eigenvalue filtering with the Cullum-Willoughby test. Here, we extend this framework to the analysis of correlation-function matrices built from multiple interpolating operators in lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) by constructing an oblique generalization of the block Lanczos algorithm, as well as a new physically motivated reformulation of the Cullum-Willoughby test that generalizes to block Lanczos straightforwardly. The resulting block Lanczos method directly extends generalized eigenvalue problem (GEVP) methods, which can be viewed as applying a single iteration of block Lanczos. Block Lanczos provides qualitative and quantitative advantages over GEVP methods analogous to the benefits of Lanczos over the standard effective mass, including faster convergence to ground- and excited-state energies, explicitly computable two-sided error bounds, straightforward extraction of matrix elements of external currents, and asymptotically constant signal-to-noise. No fits or statistical inference are required. Proof-of-principle calculations are performed for noiseless mock-data examples as well as two-by-two proton correlation-function matrices in lattice QCD.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Dew Point Meter: Application to the Measurement of the Sulfuric Acid Dew Point for Combustion Flue Gas

Accurate knowledge of acid dew point is essential for industrial and applied combustion applications. Sulfur in the fuel or raw materials is converted to sulfur dioxide (SO2) during combustion, and a portion of the SO2 is oxidized to sulfur trioxide (SO3). The SO3 will react to form H2SO4 vapor when in the presence of water vapor. Even with just trace levels of H2SO4 vapor in the gas phase (1-10 ppm), the dew point can reach 100°C and higher. To avoid acid condensation and the resulting corrosion on heat recovery equipment, plant engineers must ensure that surface temperatures are above the acid dew point, but this decreases the efficiency of thermal energy recovery. Thus, there is a trade-off between minimizing equipment corrosion and maximizing thermal energy recovery, and the acid dew point is a key parameter for this optimization. Commercially available acid dew point meters use electric conductivity sensors. These sensors are known to greatly underestimate the dew point due to their low sensitivity. In addition, no validation testing has been reported for these units and they are often expensive. In this work, we analyze the theory of the sulfuric acid condensation and develop a novel dew point meter based on this analysis. The meter consists of a novel optical instrument that is designed to monitor the slightest appearance of condensation on a hydrophobic window surface as the surface temperature of the window is slowly decreased. In this way, an accurate measurement of the dew point is obtained under a wide range of concentrations. The basis of the instrument is that a collimated beam from a diode laser will generate forward scattered light when the beam encounters surface condensate, and a sophisticated array detector is used to sensitively monitor the onset of light scattering. The measurement procedures are established to rapidly find the acid dew point, while minimizing error. Further, to calibrate the dew point meter we developed a calibration system based on a liquid bubbler that can generate a stable gas flow with a known sulfuric acid dew point. Test results show that the dew point meter can accurately measure acid dew point over a wide range. For H2SO4 vapor concentrations as low as 6 ppm the acid dew point is measured with an error of only ~1°C. To demonstrate the versatility of this instrument, the dew point meter was adapted for use with a high-pressure flow cell to allow for measurements of the dew point of flue gas from pressurized oxy-fuel combustion in a 100 kWth pressurized reactor.

Cheng, Mao↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Set Analysis to Reduce Uncertainty in Formula Assignments of Ultrahigh Resolution Mass Spectra

Environmental samples contain a vast array of organic compounds with diverse elemental compositions and heteroatom content. Molecular formula assignments of ultrahigh resolution mass spectra (HRMS) hold promise for elucidating the molecular composition of these compounds. However, the need to account for an assortment of heteroatoms increases the uncertainty associated with individual assignments – and ultimately the ecological, biological, and biogeochemical insights gleaned from the assignments. To address this challenge, we introduce a formula assignment strategy that leverages HRMS data sets to improve assignment confidence, filter false assignments, and mitigate bias in assignment routines. The strategy, implemented using CoreMS, first identifies the highest confidence assignment for a recurring ion in a data set by assessing the mass accuracy and isotopologue similarity of all assignments to the ion across the data set. The second component of the strategy examines the consistency of mass errors for an assigned ion throughout a data set and flags formulas with statistically unlikely deviations in mass error. Here, we illustrate the application and utility of the strategy by comparing its results against documented misassignment patterns within a set of oceanographic samples that were measured with 21 T Fourier Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance Mass Spectrometry. Because the efficacy of our strategy improves with data set size, it is particularly useful for enhancing assignment confidence in large HRMS data sets common in studies of environmental systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thinking Bayesian for plasma physicists

Bayesian statistics offers a powerful technique for plasma physicists to infer knowledge from the heterogeneous data types encountered. To explain this power, a simple example, Gaussian Process Regression, and the application of Bayesian statistics to inverse problems are explained. The likelihood is the key distribution because it contains the data model, or theoretic predictions, of the desired quantities. By using prior knowledge, the distribution of the inferred quantities of interest based on the data given can be inferred. Because it is a distribution of inferred quantities given the data and not a single prediction, uncertainty quantification is a natural consequence of Bayesian statistics. The benefits of machine learning in developing surrogate models for solving inverse problems are discussed, as well as progress in quantitatively understanding the errors that such a model introduces.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗