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At least 577 records · Page 32

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DOE OSTI2025

Ceramography and Thermal Modelling of Irradiated TRISO Particles using BISON

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of irradiated TRISO fuel particles from the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification Program conducted at the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) as part of my internship. Failure Analysis using high-resolution microscopy was performed to characterize mechanisms in TRISO particle layers, including the kernel, buffer, inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC), silicon carbide (SiC), and outer pyrolytic carbon (OPyC) coatings. Failure modes were systematically classified. Thermal conductivity properties of each TRISO layer were evaluated through experimental measurements and computational models for use in BISON finite element code. Experimental thermal conductivity values ranged from 0.5 W/m·K for the buffer layer to 168 W/m·K for SiC, while BISON simulations provided averaged values of 0.57 W/m·K (buffer), 4.0 W/m·K (PyC layers), and 15.95 W/m·K (SiC). Temperature-dependent correlations from PARFUME were implemented for kernel thermal properties.

BISON↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of the CISNET Colorectal Cancer Models

Purpose To calibrate Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET)'s SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN simulation models of the natural history colorectal cancer (CRC) with an emulator-based Bayesian algorithm and internally validate the model-predicted outcomes to calibration targets.Methods We used Latin hypercube sampling to sample up to 50,000 parameter sets for each CISNET-CRC model and generated the corresponding outputs. We trained multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (ANNs) as emulators using the input and output samples for each CISNET-CRC model. We selected ANN structures with corresponding hyperparameters (i.e., number of hidden layers, nodes, activation functions, epochs, and optimizer) that minimize the predicted mean square error on the validation sample. We implemented the ANN emulators in a probabilistic programming language and calibrated the input parameters with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-based algorithms to obtain the joint posterior distributions of the CISNET-CRC models' parameters. We internally validated each calibrated emulator by comparing the model-predicted posterior outputs against the calibration targets.Results The optimal ANN for SimCRC had 4 hidden layers and 360 hidden nodes, MISCAN-Colon had 4 hidden layers and 114 hidden nodes, and CRC-SPIN had 1 hidden layer and 140 hidden nodes. The total time for training and calibrating the emulators was 7.3, 4.0, and 0.66 h for SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN, respectively. The mean of the model-predicted outputs fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the calibration targets in 98 of 110 for SimCRC, 65 of 93 for MISCAN, and 31 of 41 targets for CRC-SPIN.Conclusions Using ANN emulators is a practical solution to reduce the computational burden and complexity for Bayesian calibration of individual-level simulation models used for policy analysis, such as the CISNET CRC models. In this work, we present a step-by-step guide to constructing emulators for calibrating 3 realistic CRC individual-level models using a Bayesian approach.

artificial neural networks↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multi-objective optimization of sustainable aviation fuel production pathways in the U.S. Corn Belt

As a potential source of low-carbon transportation energy, biofuels offer certain advantages over vehicle electrification (e.g., lower societal vulnerability to grid failures, and improved range of sustainable aviation), but also several challenges, including cost, carbon intensity, and land usage. There are also well-founded concerns that biofuel supply chains could be disrupted if extreme weather events impact feedstock yields. In this paper, we explore the use of multi-objective optimization to identify biofuel production pathways that balance cost, greenhouse gas emissions, and supply vulnerability to extreme weather. We compare the use of three different many-objective evolutionary algorithms and linear programming in optimizing biomass cultivation decisions in the U.S. Corn Belt under weather uncertainty using historical, modeled, and synthetic yield data. We consider four feedstock choices (corn, soy, switchgrass, and algae) with two land types (agricultural and marginal lands) and evaluate decisions using three alternative spatial resolutions (ranging from the USDA agricultural district level to the state level). Results show that feedstock choice is the primary driver of objective performance (i.e., the position and shape of 3D, approximate Pareto frontiers). Spatial diversification is a less effective tool in reducing exposure to weather-caused drops in crop yield.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

PV Generation and Load Forecasting for Adjuntas PR Community Microgrids

Existing frameworks to forecast time-series photovoltaic (PV) output power and consumer load for microgrid operations and controls assume a near-continuous availability of real-time input features from the field assets such as PV inverters, energy meters, and weather station. These incoming data points are used to periodically retrain models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window, be it one hour-ahead, one-day ahead, or one-week ahead. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. Hence, there is a need for programs that assume no availability of real-time microgrid asset data and still make reliable forecasts that can be used for decision-making. Such programs would be apt to function in extreme weather events such as hurricanes and would use lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance and ambient temperature, then compute PV power from those forecasts, as well as independently forecast consumer load. The codebase performs forecasting for the scenario of when the microgrid does not have a reliable access to forecasts or real-time observations of solar irradiance (I) and ambient temperature (AT) and load (Load) to be able to adequately forecast, in real-time, the PV power production or a business' load. In this case, using historical values of PV power and load, a univariate forecasting of generation and consumption are respectively made. The use-case in particular has two sub-scenarios: one, a normal 7-day ahead forecast where the unavailability of real-time data is assumed due to infrastructure issues such as loss of communication or sensor maintenance or service downtimes. Whereas a hurricane-caused unavailability of real-time data requires a second model trained specifically on historical hurricane days to be able to capture the extreme day behavior of generation in particular, and load if applicable. A gradient boosted regression tree comprises an ensemble of additive models that map between the input of historical values (be it irradiance, temperature, or load) and their corresponding output forecasts of a given horizon such that the individual learner predictions are summed up over the total number of such learners in the ensemble to produce an aggregate forecast. A weighting mechanism is applied to the training data in each iteration, where actual and forecast values are compared to penalize incorrect forecasts by increasing the weight and reducing it to reward correct forecasts. The code's benefits are that it: (a) accounts for a contingency where communication loss renders newly measured real-time data unavailable for model tuning and snapshot updates; (b) presents blind forecasting that recursively determines the next time-step value in a horizon using the forecast of the same attribute from a prior step; and (c) employs lightweight models that, once trained, can reliably generalize for different horizons, which make them suitable for enhancing the resilience of field microgrids prone to extreme events that encounter disruptions to data availability.

Sundararajan, Aditya [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2025

Education for PV Modeling Professionals: Observations from the 2025 PVPMC Workshop

We surveyed professionals in the photovoltaic industry to understand interests in education and training for performance modeling of solar power systems. We found that most professionals are self-taught and rely on a variety of public sources of technical materials. Available formal education, such as courses or certification programs, either lacks detail or is focused on software user training. Responses indicate several opportunities to create public resources that would benefit professional learning for solar power system modeling: • Create a glossary of terms and common variable names. • Develop guidance on uncertainty analysis in the context of solar power systems modeling. • Assemble a catalog of available educational materials and data sources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cell and Stack Degradation Evaluation and Modeling

Presentation on NETL's solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) work plan research (FWP 1022411) given by invitation to the 2024 Hydrogen Program Annual Merit Review meeting in Arlington, VA on May 7, 2024.

Abernathy, Harry↗

DOE OSTI2024

Instrumentation for the In-Core Real-Time Mechanical Testing of Structural Materials (INCREASE) Project

Idaho National Laboratory (INL), in collaboration with the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the French Atomic and Alternative Energies Commission (CEA), the Joint Research Center (JRC), the Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group (NRG), and the Research Center Rez (CVR), started a Joint Experimental Program (JEEP) project that operates within the Nuclear Energy Agency’s Framework for Irradiation Experiments (FIDES II) program in order to develop capabilities for the in-core real-time mechanical testing of structural materials. This effort will focus on designing a shared capsule capable of housing a variety of in-core mechanical testing instrumentation allowing enhanced experiments for the material science community. The outcome of the project would be high-priority, stress relaxation data for stainless-steel-based materials provided by EPRI and CEA. Stress relaxation is a major phenomenon that contributes to material degradation in nuclear reactor components. Currently, nuclear material stress relaxation is assessed both before and after irradiation, using complex and costly post-irradiation examination (PIE) activities. In-situ data would support the development of precision modeling and simulation of this degradation phenomena and would provide validation and benchmarking for existing models using the PIE data. As part of the U.S. Department of Energy Advanced Sensor and Instrumentation (ASI) program, INL has fabricated and tested out-of-core mechanical test instrumentation. This instrumentation was designed for easy adaptation to the irradiation capsule proposed under this JEEP, and can be deployed to measure real-time stress relaxation under pressurized-water reactor (PWR) conditions. This initial effort will partially serve to replace the testing capabilities lost because of shutting down the Halden Boiling Water Reactor (HBWR). The project would provide these capabilities to the international community via a shared capsule design that is easily adaptable to additional material test reactors. The design features will incorporate expansion to PWR and non-light-water reactor (LWR) environments that will be developed in future work. The capsule and instrumentation will be demonstrated in the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Reactor (MITR) for phase I and the Petten High Flux Reactor (HFR) for phase II irradiations to deliver real-time stress relaxation data on high priority stainless steel structural materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment and validation of NEAMS tools for high-fidelity multiphysics transient modeling of microreactors: Application of NEAMS codes to perform multiphysics modeling analyses of micro-reactor concepts

The NEAMS Multiphysics Applications team aims at providing assessment of code useability and functionality for microreactor design and analyses, together with demonstration of their capabilities to properly capture the steady-state and time-dependent behavior of different microreactor concepts. In FY-24, significant progress was achieved in improving multi-physics models of several microreactors systems: HP-MR, GC-MR and KRUSTY. These efforts focused on solving more complex multiphysics problems enabled by enhanced tools capability, verifying and validating results obtained, providing feedback to developers for suggested improvements, and sharing these models to facilitate user training. A series of new multiphysics transients were completed on the HP-MR (using Griffin/BISON/Sockeye) with core startup transient, control drum inadvertent rotation accident, and hydrogen leakage from hydride moderator (also including SWIFT). On the GC-MR, a new full-core model was developed and analyzed through a series of new multiphysics (Griffin/BISON/SAM) transients to simulate moderator leakage (also including SWIFT), flow blockage and coolant depressurization. Additional and updated TRISO failure analyses were completed on the HP-MR unit-cell and GC-MR assembly models leveraging improved TRISO modeling capabilities. The amount of SiC failure following accidental transients at end-of-life was null. However, GC-MR assembly TRISO analysis highlighted Pd penetration rate can be problematic and may require design changes on the studied microreactor concept. The neutronics discrepancies observed on the KRUSTY model in previous years were resolved using hybrid set of Monte Carlo/Deterministic cross-sections. The multiphysics (Griffin neutronics / BISON thermal-mechanics) 15₵ insertion transient simulation displayed good agreement when comparing with experimental data. Initial modeling of the 30 ₵ reactivity insertion also displays promising results. Such close agreement provides important validation data that can be leveraged by the NEAMS program and by microreactor vendors to support licensing of their technology. Finally, important experience was gathered with the NEAMS tools leading to several user feedback shared with tools developers, especially with regards to MOOSE mesh generator and Griffin. This project led to many publications demonstrating modeling capabilities, and to three models shared on the Virtual Test Bed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hls4ml Synthesis Testing

HLS4ml (high level synthesis for machine learning) Is a Python package used to translate commonly used open-source machine learning models into HLS. This is useful in machine learning applications on FPGAs. Machine learning algorithms are only as fast as the hardware that they are used on, and some applications require high speed without sacrificing accuracy. In these situations, an FPGA is a good choice since it is faster than a CPU or a GPU, but programming an FPGA is difficult. This is where HLS4ml can be used to simplify the process, as a well-known learning model can be converted to HLS and more easily deployed onto an FPGA. There are many use cases for a machine learning algorithm running on an FPGA. For example, detectors in a particle accelerator cannot keep every event that they detect, and so a computer must decide which events to keep and which to discard. Using an FPGA with a machine learning algorithm would be a good way to keep as many events as possible.

Swanson, Caiden↗

DOE OSTI2024

hls4ml

hls4ml (high level synthesis for machine learning) Is a Python package used to translate commonly used open-source machine learning models into HLS. This is useful in machine learning applications on FPGAs. Machine learning algorithms are only as fast as the hardware that they are used on, and some applications require high speed without sacrificing accuracy. In these situations, an FPGA is a good choice since it is faster than a CPU or a GPU, but programming an FPGA is difficult. This is where hls4ml can be used to simplify the process, as a well-known learning model can be converted to HLS and more easily deployed onto an FPGA. There are many use cases for a machine learning algorithm running on an FPGA. For example, detectors in a particle accelerator cannot keep every event that they detect, and so a computer must decide which events to keep and which to discard. Using an FPGA with a machine learning algorithm would be a good way to keep as many events as possible.

Swanson, Caiden↗

DOE OSTI2026

State of Innovation 2025: Progress in Accelerating Next-Generation Cement and Concrete Technologies

The cement and concrete sectors are entering a decisive period as next-generation technologies advance from laboratory research to demonstration, early deployment, and first-of-a-kind commercial plants. Building on the 2024 State of Innovation report, the 2025 outlook highlights both the rapid acceleration of innovation and the urgent need for coordinated action across the value chain. Venture capital activity into the cement and concrete space stabilized following the record surge of 2022-2023, yet landmark financings, such as Sublime Systems' $200 million round and Terra CO2's $124 million Series B, signal continued investor confidence in companies approaching commercialization. Corporate procurement has become a powerful new catalyst, with Microsoft, Amazon, and CRH (Cement Roadstone Holdings) Ventures providing long-term commitments that underpin the first wave of next-generation cementitious products. The sector is shifting from early-stage experimentation toward the scaling of well-capitalized leaders capable of bridging the critical "capitalization gap." Early innovators continue to expand the toolkit through novel binders, electrochemical cements, biogenic limestone, and carbonate mineralization pathways. Going into 2026, cost competitiveness, durability validation, and scalability enabled by resilient supply chains remain the decisive factors for market adoption. At the 2025 Next Generation Cement and Concrete Critical Technologies Meeting, attendees emphasized dual-track funding strategies that integrate federal grants with private capital as key to enabling market breakthrough. State programs and corporate demand are sustaining momentum, while successful companies increasingly demonstrate both economic value and reduced dependence on imported materials. The National Concrete Pavement Technology Center and others underscored that broad integration of next-generation materials will hinge on standards compatibility, verified field performance, and workforce readiness. Colorado continues to serve as a proving ground through pilot programs that combine supplier training, phased implementation, and real-world data to de-risk innovation and provide replicable models for other regions. The 2025 Cement and Concrete Critical Technologies Workshop reinforced that scaling next-generation materials will require alignment among technology innovation, performance validation, and market demand. Stakeholders must move beyond siloed efforts toward collaborative frameworks that coordinate standards, funding, and infrastructure deployment. As a neutral convener and technical validator, the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) plays a pivotal role in bridging innovation and market adoption through collaborative research, technology validation, and entrepreneurship programs. By uniting innovators, incumbents, policymakers, contractors, and investors, NLR and its partners are helping chart a credible pathway toward widespread commercialization in the decade ahead.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic design of a linear Fresnel reflector for industrial process heat

A techno-economic model of a Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) system using a Linear Fresnel Reflector (LFR) has been developed. LFRs can deliver process heat suitable for a range of industries, including food and beverage production. This model uses an adaptive algorithm to calculate the optimal secondary reflector shape given the geometry and optical properties of the rest of the system. A ray-tracing program is used to calculate optical efficiency over a wide range of longitudinal and transversal incidence angles and subsequently evaluate the annual efficiency at a given geographical location. A specific LFR design developed by Hyperlight Energy was modelled, and this industrial partner provided a detailed cost breakdown which was used as the basis of an economic model. Combining the technical and economic data facilitates the calculation of the Levelized Cost of Heat (LCOH). The influence of a number of parameters on the annual efficiency and LCOH is explored; notable parameters include the absorber height, the number, width, and spacing of the primary mirrors, the aim point, and the secondary reflector shape and width. By identifying an optimal combination of these parameters, we reduce the LCOH of the industry partner’s system design by 9.2%, from 14.4 $\$/MWh_{th}$ to 13.0 $\$/MWh_{th}$. In comparison, the LCOH of a natural gas boiler delivering the same annual quantity of heat is 29 $\$/MWh_{th}$, which indicates that LFRs can be a competitive heat source for industrial processes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Vehicle-to-Grid planning framework incorporating electric vehicle user equilibrium and distribution network flexibility enhancement

The rapid surge in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, coupled with advancements in charging technologies, emphasizes the critical necessity for expanding EV recharging infrastructure. Simultaneously, the Distribution Network (DN) encounters escalating challenges in meeting charging demand during peak traffic periods. Consequently, there is a mounting demand for the deployment of innovative Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technologies to augment the DN’s flexibility in power dispatch and alleviate travel costs for EV users. Hence, this paper proposes an EV-user-equilibrium-(UE)-constrained V2G planning framework that enhances flexibility in the DN. The framework aims to ascertain the optimal placement and capacity of EV charging stations (EVCSs) and V2G charging piles within the Transportation Network (TN). It takes into account the equilibrium condition stemming from competitive EV charging and routing behaviors alongside the optimal expansion of DN energy resources to accommodate the electricity supplied by the V2G piles. This study commences by analyzing EV drivers’ travel decisions, considering the influence of charging and V2G pile locations and sizes. Subsequently, we tackle the Traffic Assignment Problem with User Equilibrium (TAP-UE) model to characterize the steady-state traffic flow distribution of EVs. Following this, we formulate the optimization model for the Coordinated Power and Transportation Network (CPTN), which encompasses the optimal expansion of DN facilities and traffic flow regulation under UE conditions. To mitigate the computational complexity associated with the V2G planning model, we introduce a series of linearization methods to obtain a manageable Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) solution. Finally, to validate the efficacy of our proposed planning framework, we apply it to two test systems, including a real-world case study. Through these case studies, we explore the necessity and potential benefits of V2G technologies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Benefits of Dual Fuel Heat Pump Grid-responsive Control: A Model-based Control Optimization Approach Using Building and Equipment Co-simulation

Conventional dual fuel heat pumps lack the intelligent control mechanisms to efficiently manage the switch between heat pump and furnace, leading to sub-optimal energy usage and, in some cases, increased operating costs. To resolve this gap, this study applies optimized control on hybrid heat pumps. With a focus on equipment control strategies, we compare the performances of five spacing heating equipment, including a conventional heat pump (HP), a conventional furnace, a dual fuel heat pump (DFHP) with conventional control, a dual fuel heat pump with smart control, and a novel seamlessly fuel flexible heat pump (SFFHP). While DFHP runs on either gas or electricity at any given moment, SFFHP concurrently consumes gas and electricity by continuously optimizing the proportion of each. In this research, a co-simulation framework is developed by integrating a building envelope model with a physics-based heat pump simulation model to analyze the benefits of grid-responsive controls of DFHP and SFFHP. The model-based optimal controls adjust the operation of the heat pump and gas furnace based on utility price signals and marginal grid emission to minimize utility cost and CO 2 emissions for multiple climate zones, different utility tariffs, and marginal grid emission scenarios. Case studies in Chicago and Los Angeles demonstrate that SFFHP and DFHP, with model-based optimal control, can deliver significant reductions in peak demand, utility cost, and CO 2 emission. In Chicago, SFFHP and smart controlled DFHP yield up to 64.7% and 61.7% utility cost reduction and up to 15.7% and 8.5% CO 2 emission reduction compared to the gas furnace. In Los Angeles, SFFHP and smart controlled DFHP achieve up to 43.6% and 40.1% utility cost reduction and up to 13.8% and 14.1% CO2 emission reduction compared to conventional heat pumps. In conclusion, by leveraging the fuel flexibility nature of dual fuel heat pumps, the model-based control optimization approach makes dual fuel heat pump an attractive option for demand response programs.

Control↗

DOE OSTI2025

Inverse Thermodynamics: Designing Interactions for Targeted Phase Behavior

The traditional goal of inverse self-assembly is to design interactions that drive particles toward a desired target structure. However, achieving successful self-assembly also requires tuning the thermodynamic conditions under which the structure is stable. In this work, we extend the inverse design paradigm to explicitly address this challenge by developing a framework for inverse thermodynamics, i.e., the design of interaction potentials that realize specific thermodynamic behavior. As a step in this direction, using patchy particle mixtures as a model system, we demonstrate how precise control over both bonding topology and bond energetics enables the programming of targeted phase behavior. In particular, we establish design principles for azeotropic demixing and show how to create mixtures that exhibit azeotropy at any prescribed composition. Our predictions are validated through Gibbs-ensemble simulations [Panagiotopoulos, Mol. Phys. 1987, 61, 813−826]. These results highlight the necessity of coupling structural design with thermodynamic engineering, and provide a blueprint for controlling complex phase behavior in multicomponent systems.

Azeotropes↗

DOE OSTI2026

1970 Home Interview Survey

This study was conducted by Twin Cities Metropolitan Council—Saint Paul, and the database was used to develop mathematical models to predict future regional travel patterns and ultimately develop appropriate regional transportation policies, plans, and programs. The surveys in 1970 did not specifically include walking or bicycling as options in the travel diary; instead, these trips are included in a broad “other” category.

1Hz data↗

DOE OSTI2025

2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study

# 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study The 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study collected household- and person-level activity and travel pattern information from residents throughout the Puget Sound Regional Council's four-county region in Washington State. It followed the [2014-2015 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study](https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/secure-transportation-data/tsdc-puget-sound-travel-study), starting a planned six-year data collection that includes 2019 and 2021. The multiyear program's goal is to maintain an updated source of household travel behavior data that: - Supports modeling and planning needs - Facilitates trend analysis over time - Allows for regular study design updates to integrate evolving data collection methods and emerging travel behaviors and transportation issues. ## Data Collection Agency The Puget Sound Regional Council conducted the study. ## Methodology The 2017 study featured both the design and administration of a one-day household travel diary (approximately 80% of households before data cleaning) and a seven-day smartphone global positioning system (GPS) diary (approximately 20% of households before data cleaning). It combined data collection methods, including smartphone, online, and telephone. The survey design included several stages to recruit and collect data about households, their members, and their travel behaviors during the assigned travel period. ## Survey Records Survey records include a total of 6,254 participants. ## More Information For more information, see the [survey documentation](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/zip/tsdc-2017-puget-sound-travel-study-documentation.zip?sfvrsn=45991f2f_1). ## Transportation Data The data set contains a demographic and socioeconomic composition of 6,254 people from 3,285 households in the Puget Sound regional area, as well as detailed information on the travel behavior of each household for a designated 24-hour period. The survey logged over 508 thousand vehicle miles of travel by participants during 52,492 trips. Transportation data are available as zipped files. [Download Winzip](http://www.winzip.com/downwz.htm).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗