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At least 595 records · Page 33

Emerging low-cloud feedback and adjustment in global satellite observations

From mid-2003 to mid-2024, a global decrease in low-cloud amount enhanced the absorption of solar radiation by 0.22±0.07 W m −2 per decade (±1σ range), accelerating the energy imbalance trend during that period (0.44 W m −2 per decade). Through controlling factor analysis, here we show that the low-cloud trend is due to a combination of cloud feedback and adjustments to greenhouse gases and aerosols (respectively 0.09±0.02, 0.05±0.03, and 0.03±0.03 W m −2 per decade), which jointly account for 74 % of the trend. The contribution of natural climate variability is weak but uncertain (0.01±0.08 W m −2 per decade), owing to a poorly constrained trend in boundary-layer inversion strength. Importantly, the observed low-cloud radiative trend lies well within the range of values simulated by contemporary global climate models under conditions close to present day. Any systematic model error in the representation of present-day global energy imbalance trends is thus likely to originate in processes unrelated to low clouds.

Geosciences↗

On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results

Accurate representation of the turbulent exchange of carbon, water, and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere is critical for modelling global energy, water, and carbon cycles in both future climate projections and weather forecasts. Evaluation of models' ability to do this is performed in a wide range of simulation environments, often without explicit consideration of the degree of observational constraint or uncertainty and typically without quantification of benchmark performance expectations. We describe a Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) that attempts to resolve these shortcomings, comparing the surface turbulent heat flux predictions of around 20 different land models provided with in situ meteorological forcing evaluated with measured surface fluxes using quality-controlled data from 170 eddy-covariance-based flux tower sites. Predictions from seven out-of-sample empirical models are used to quantify the information available to land models in their forcing data and so the potential for land model performance improvement. Sites with unusual behaviour, complicated processes, poor data quality, or uncommon flux magnitude are more difficult to predict for both mechanistic and empirical models, providing a means of fairer assessment of land model performance. When examining observational uncertainty, model performance does not appear to improve in low-turbulence periods or with energy-balance-corrected flux tower data, and indeed some results raise questions about whether the energy balance correction process itself is appropriate. In all cases the results are broadly consistent, with simple out-of-sample empirical models, including linear regression, comfortably outperforming mechanistic land models. In all but two cases, latent heat flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 are better predicted by land models than sensible heat flux, despite it seeming to have fewer physical controlling processes. Land models that are implemented in Earth system models also appear to perform notably better than stand-alone ecosystem (including demographic) models, at least in terms of the fluxes examined here. The approach we outline enables isolation of the locations and conditions under which model developers can know that a land model can improve, allowing information pathways and discrete parameterisations in models to be identified and targeted for future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rapid Evaluation Framework for the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track

As Earth system models (ESMs) grow in complexity and in volume of output data, there is an increasing need for rapid, comprehensive evaluation of their scientific performance. The upcoming Assessment Fast Track for the Seventh Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7) will require expeditious response for model analyses designed to inform and drive integrated Earth system assessments. To meet this challenge, the Rapid Evaluation Framework (REF), a community-driven platform for benchmarking and performance assessment of ESMs, was designed and developed. The initial implementation of the REF, constructed to meet the near-term needs of the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track, builds upon four disparate community evaluation and benchmarking tools that are coupled together using the Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC) framework. The REF runs within a containerized workflow for portability and reproducibility and is aimed at generating and organizing diagnostics covering a variety of model variables. The REF leverages well documented observational datasets to provide assessments of model fidelity across a collection of diagnostics. All diagnostics were identified and selected with community involvement and consultation. Operational integration with the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) will permit automated execution of the REF for selected diagnostics as soon as model output data are published on ESGF by the originating modeling centers. The REF is designed to be portable across a range of current computational platforms to facilitate use by modeling centers for assessing the evolution of model versions or gauging the relative performance of CMIP simulations before being published on ESGF. When integrated into production simulation workflows, results from the REF provide immediate quantitative feedback that allows model developers and scientists to quickly identify model biases and performance issues. After the REF is released to the community, its subsequent development and support will be prioritized by an international consortium of scientists and engineers, enabling a broader impact across Earth science disciplines. For instance, the REF will facilitate improvements to models and will enhance confidence in model projections through process-based selection of models based on their performance with respect to observations. Production of reproducible diagnostics and community-based assessments are key features of the REF. Furthermore, providing interoperability with existing evaluation packages assures that contributions from previous community efforts will be available for use in future model intercomparison projects.

Hoffman, Forrest [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000158024134)↗

Modeling Wind in Agrivoltaics and its Impact on Eddy Covariance Flux Measurements

Silicon Ranch is conducting a research study at their 138MW Bancroft Station agrivoltaics site, the largest agrivoltaics research array in the US, in which they are using an eddy covariance flux tower to measure the carbon budget. They are interested in finding out if the presence of the panels changes the effectiveness of these measurements. To investigate this topic, NLR performed numerical simulations of wind through the agrivoltaic array to identify under what environmental conditions (wind speed, wind direction, temperatures) and panel tilt angles the mean wind speeds at the measurement heights are significantly altered by the presence of the solar panels. NLR adapted and used the PVade simulation tool [1] to model wind in Silicon Ranch's agrivoltaic array and found that at the height of the flux tower (6m), the wind speed measured is not significantly altered by the presence of solar panels. The percent difference is less than 4% and is generally greatest during daytime conditions at higher wind speeds and perpendicular wind direction. Closer to the ground, the flow is significantly altered (wind speeds are reduced) by the presence of solar panels and the percent difference increases in strong winds. The work confirmed that eddy covariance flux towers can be used within the context of a solar array field.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Numerical Evaluation of Effective Thermal Conductivity of PCM with Metal Foam Incorporating Buoyancy Effects for Thermal Energy Storage

The thermal energy storage (TES) system has the capability to efficiently preserve thermal energy directly derived from the energy source, minimizing any conversion losses. Especially latent heat storage offers distinct advantages, including a substantial increase in energy storage density and minimization of temperature fluctuations within the plants. However, the phase change material (PCM) employed in latent heat storage has low thermal conductivity. Consequently, various studies are being conducted to enhance heat transfer. One approach to enhance heat transfer involves utilizing metal foam to maximize the heat transfer area. However, modeling metal foam with its intricate structure is a challenging task in numerical analysis. For this reason, ongoing research focuses on simplifying the modeling of metal foam. Nevertheless, fully encompassing all the characteristics of actual metal foam proves to be a challenging task for the simplified analytical model. The objective of this paper is to interpret the simple lattice metal foam analysis model from the perspective of behavior induced by buoyancy. When comparing the analysis results of solid PCM and liquid PCM with the same thermal conductivity under changes in porosity and gravity direction, we conducted an analysis to discern the trends in effective thermal conductivity that are overestimated due to convection. In the analysis, a constant heat flux of 10 kW and a constant surface boundary condition of 350 K were applied, and a sensitivity study regarding the mesh was conducted. The results indicate that, from the perspective of gravity in the simple lattice model, the solid analysis yields an effective thermal conductivity 29-47% higher compared to the liquid analysis. Additionally, as porosity increases, there is an observed increase of 24-33% in effective thermal conductivity.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Computational and Experimental Investigation of Discrete “W” Turbulators for sCO2 Turbine Internal Cooling

Direct-fired supercritical CO2 (sCO2 ) cycles are of particular interest for power generation due to the potential for higher thermal efficiencies with inherent CO2 capture. Direct fired sCO2 turbines must withstand high temperatures and the density of the working fluid is much higher than conventional Brayton cycles. Based on conventional Brayton cycle applications, internal serpentine cooling channels with ribbed turbulator strips are a common approach to achieve the required cooling, while minimizing coolant utilization. Most of the previous studies of coolant channel heat transfer enhancements have focused on serpentine channels using air as the cooling media at Reynold’s numbers typical of Brayton cycles. This paper investigates the Nusselt number augmentation of coolant channels with no features, ribbed turbulators, and discrete “W” turbulators with surface roughness effects included and CO2 as the coolant. The numerical results are compared to experimental results using CO2 as the cooling media at Reynold’s numbers ranging from 100,000 to 300,000. The results show the Nusselt number augmentation plateaus with increasing Reynolds number, in contrast to the decay observed in prior publications with air as the coolant media. Additionally, the CFD results indicate the discrete “W” geometry provides a 10% increase in Nusselt number augmentation relative to the angled ribbed turbulators.

computational fluid dynamics (CFD)↗

Surrogates for Valve-Controlled Pipe Flow: Accelerating Nuclear Reactor Design

Neural surrogate models are developed to replace expensive steady-state RANS CFD simulations for valve-controlled pipe flow in nuclear reactor design. Using parametric CFD data generated with MOOSE Pronghorn across a range of valve geometry and flow conditions, three approaches are compared: a POD-based reduced-order model, a structured UNet on a cylindrical grid, and unstructured models (DeepONet and BiStride MeshGraphNet) on nondimensionalized point clouds. POD achieves the highest accuracy (99%) with fast inference but requires storing all solution snapshots, while the DeepONet and BSMS-GNN both achieve ~89% accuracy at sub-second inference, with the BSMS-GNN offering superior geometric generalizability. These surrogates enable rapid ranking of candidate valve designs and can warm-start CFD solvers to accelerate convergence, supporting agentic design iteration on the Prometheus platform.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Insight into pseudo-film-boiling in supercritical water under simplified interfacial conditions

The focus of this paper is the physics of supercritical water film boiling through the simulation of natural convection of supercritical water in a rectangular cavity. It has been widely believed that above a fluid's critical point, only one phase exists. However, recent research has indicated the existence of distinct gas-like and liquid-like regions separated by the Widom line, which is the locus of the maxima of the specific heat. Along the Widom line, density decreases sixfold, viscosity drops by a factor of two, while specific heat spikes by an order of magnitude. These variations, specifically in density and viscosity, produce a thick pseudo-interface and flow dynamics behavior akin to film-boiling, denoted here as pseudo-two-phase flow dynamics. When the cavity is heated from the bottom, a pseudo-film of gas-like fluid is formed at the heated wall, and the flow complexity evolves, characterized by the formation of multiple vortices. Results demonstrate the ability of modern conjugate heat transfer computational fluid dynamics to capture the pseudo two-phase regime, with the formation of a pseudo-film at the heated wall. Further, the boiling curve is studied, showing an increase in heat flux with an increase in the temperature differential between the wall and the pseudo-critical temperature. Furthermore, results also show a previously uncharacterized instability, where the convection cells in the cavity oscillate and can flip directions under certain conditions.

Computational fluid dynamics↗

Computational multiphysics modeling of radioactive aerosol deposition in diverse human respiratory tract geometries

The evaluation of aerosol exposure relies on generic mathematical models that assume uniform particle deposition profiles over the human respiratory tract and do not account for subject-specific characteristics. Here we introduce a hybrid-automated computational workflow that generates personalized particle deposition profiles in 3D reconstructed human airways from computed tomography scans using Computational Fluid and Particle Dynamics simulations. This is the first large-scale study to consider realistic airways variability, where 380 lower and 40 upper human respiratory tract 3D geometries are reconstructed and parameterized. The data is clustered into nine groups using random forest regression. Computational fluid and particle dynamics simulations are conducted on these representative geometries using a realistic heavy-breathing respiratory cycle and radioactive iodine-131 as a source term. Monte Carlo radiation transport simulations are performed to obtain detailed energy deposition maps. Our findings emphasize the importance of personalized studies, as minor respiratory tract variations notably influence deposition patterns rather than global parameters of the lower airways, observing more than 30% variance in the mass deposition fraction.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Shock compression of crystalline TeO 2 to the high-pressure fluid regime: Insights from ab initio molecular dynamics simulations

The shock response of fully-dense and porous crystalline tellurium dioxide (TeO 2 ⁠) to the high-pressure and high-temperature fluid regime was investigated within the framework of density functional theory with Mermin’s generalization to finite temperatures. The principal and porous shock Hugoniot curves were predicted from canonical ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations, with the phase space sampled along isotherms up to 80 000 K, for densities ranging from ρ = 3 to 17 g/cm 3 . The polymorphs investigated are α-TeO 2 paratellurite (⁠P4 1 2 1 2), TeO 2 cotunnite (⁠Pnma⁠), and TeO 2 post-cotunnite (⁠P2 1 /m⁠). Based on the discontinuity found in the calculated U s – u p slope of TeO 2 post-cotunnite at a shock velocity of U s ≃ 8.35km/s and a particle velocity of u p ≃ 3.64 km/s, the shock melting temperature and pressure are predicted to be ≃ 6500 K and ≃ 170 GPa. Results from the AIMD simulations are in line with the static compression data of TeO 2 paratellurite and cotunnite, and with the recent shock Hugoniot data for single-crystal α- TeO 2 for pressures up to 85 GPa, obtained using the inclined-mirror method and the velocity interferometer system for any reflector combined with powder gun and two-stage light-gas gun.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Large eddy simulation of a pressurized reactive fluid–particle system: single-particle dynamics analysis

Pressurized oxy-combustion (POC) is a promising candidate to reduce carbon emissions in power generation. Designing an effective burner plays a vital role in developing new combustion technologies. Because of the high pressure, the volume fraction of particles in a pressurized oxy-combustor could be higher than that in the conventional combustor, therefore, the particle dynamics in the pressurized vessel need to be evaluated accordingly. The present computational work is to predict the influence of the particle size and particle injection location on the particle trajectory. The Stokes number based on turbulence fluctuation, St, is adopted to evaluate the impact of the gas phase on the particulate phase. A large eddy simulation (LES) with the environment pressure of 15 bar and the thermal input of the fuel particle of 100 kWth has been performed by means of the commercial CFD package. It is shown that that in this pressurized environment St << 1 for the 25 µm particles, St ~ 1 for the 100 µm particles, while for the particles exceeding 200 µm St >> 1. The trajectories of the sampling particles from the LES results support this conclusion: the particles less than 100 µm tend to be uniformly distributed in the space while the particles exceeding 200 µm tend to concentrate in the combustor.

Li, Lei↗

Spatio-temporal Fourier Transformer for Long-term Dynamics Prediction (StFT) v1.0

We propose a novel machine learning model spatio-temporal Fourier transformer (StFT) to emulate long-term dynamics of multi-scale and multi-physics systems. Our method StFT overcomes the limitations of rapid error accumulation, particularly in long-term forecasting of systems characterized by complex and coupled dynamics. StFT achieves outstanding accuracy and computational efficiency by effectively capturing multi-scale interactions, and quantify the uncertainties inherent in the predictions. Our model leverages a structured hierarchy of StFT blocks, and explicitly captures dynamics across both macro- and micro- spatial scales. Evaluations conducted on three benchmark datasets (plasma, fluid, and atmospheric dynamics) demonstrate the advantages of our approach over state-of-the-art ML methods.

Bai, Zhe [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (L↗

Characteristics of Fluid‐Solid Interaction Constitutive Models Within Poroelastodynamics at Higher Strain‐Rates and Large Deformations Implemented in 1D

The large deformation, mixed formulation, finite element (FE) modeling approach presented in Irwin et al. 2024 is extended herein to include improved constitutive models for representing dynamic solid-fluid interactions at higher strain rates (𝒪⁢(1⁢0 2 −1⁢0 3 )⁢s −1 ) and larger overpressure magnitudes (𝒪⁡(1⁢0 2 )⁢kPa) within a biphasic soft porous material using Theory of Porous Media (TPM) at finite strain. Specifically, these constitutive modeling improvements are the following: (i) a more physically robust constitutive model for pore fluid seepage velocity via inclusion of pore fluid viscous stress, and (ii) a modified deformation-dependent-permeability model and updated hyperelastic constitutive model better suited for handling larger volumetric compressions and extensions. The novelty of the present work is mainly the contribution (i): inclusion of pore fluid viscous stress at higher strain-rate and large deformations, which requires 𝐶 1 continuity in the weak formulation, accomplished by employing Hermite cubic interpolation functions within a mixed nonlinear poromechanical finite element formulation. In (ii), the model is updated to weakly enforce solid phase incompressibility, such that this assumption is not violated numerically, which provides improved numerical stability for achieving larger overpressure magnitudes on 𝒪⁡(1⁢0 2 ) kPa, which were not achievable with the previous Kozeny–Carman model in Irwin et al. 2024. Also in (ii), the volumetric part of the solid skeleton free energy function is modified to ensure proper bounds on the solid skeleton Jacobian of deformation 𝐽 s related to incompressibility of the solid phase. Uniaxial strain, unidirectional flow examples at higher strain rates (𝒪⁢(1⁢0 2 −1⁢0 3 )⁢s −1 ) and larger deformations (up to 0.2 (or 20%) nominal axial strain) demonstrate the improved physical representation—and numerical stability—of these constitutive model improvements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Scalable Multiphysics Block Preconditioning for Low Mach Number Compressible Resistive MHD with Application to Magnetic Confinement Fusion

This study investigates multiphysics block preconditioners that are critical in devising scalable Newton–Krylov iterative solvers for longer time-scale fully implicit fluid plasma models. The specific model of interest is the visco-resistive, low Mach number, compressible magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model. This model describes the dynamics of conducting fluids in the presence of electromagnetic fields and can be used to study aspects of astrophysical phenomena, important science and technology applications, and basic plasma physics. The specific application of interest that motivates this study is the macroscopic simulation of longer time-scale stability and disruptions of magnetic confinement fusion devices, specifically the ITER Tokamak. The computational solution of the governing balance equations for mass, momentum, heat transfer, and magnetic induction for resistive MHD systems can be extremely challenging. These difficulties arise from both the strong nonlinear, nonsymmetric coupling of fluid and electromagnetic phenomena as well as the significant range of time and length scales that the interactions of these physical mechanisms produce. To handle the range of time and spatial scales of interest, a fully implicit unstructured variational multiscale finite element formulation is employed. For the scalable solution of the Newton linearized systems, fully coupled block preconditioners are designed to leverage algebraic multigrid subsolves. In conclusion, results are presented for the strong and weak scaling of the method as well as the robustness of these techniques for a large range of Lundquist numbers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Space-Time Fluid (Unabridged)

Purpose: This essay is a retelling of general relativity in a language in which space-time geometry is expressed as a fluid. This trivial and useful reformulation gives 1) a non-perturbative covariant description of cosmological inhomogeneities and 2) a simple formula describing how cosmic inhomogeneities are generated on super-horizon scales. Methods: Equating the Ricci curvature with the associated matter stress-energy gives a description of space-time geometry in terms of fluid properties. These locally measurable (covariant) non-perturbative quantities are in some ways superior to commonly used "gauge invariant" quantities. The dynamics of a quantity (kurvature) which describes cosmological inhomogeneities is described in detail. A detailed comparison is made of space-time fluid dynamics with that of a classical (Newtonian physics) fluid. Results: The fluid lexicon permits an unambiguous definition of the velocity of space-time. The evolution of the space-time fluid is in many ways identical with that of the classical fluid when expressed in Lagrangian coordinates. Kurvature is a measure of the specific binding energy of the fluid and is a most useful covariant measure of cosmological inhomogeneities. For plausible matter models kurvature will increase, even on super-horizon scales, due to non-linear hydrodynamic effects rather than gravity. This phenomena is also exhibited by classical fluids. Conclusion: The space-time fluid representation of geometrodynamics gives a simple and useful description of the evolution of cosmological inhomogeneities.

Stebbins, Albert [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000023807725↗