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NASA NTRS1981

Determination of the optimal level for combining area and yield estimates

Several levels of obtaining both area and yield estimates of corn and soybeans in Iowa were considered: county, refined strata, refined/split strata, crop reporting district, and state. Using the CCEA model form and smoothed weather data, regression coefficients at each level were derived to compute yield and its variance. Variances were also computed with stratum level. The variance of the yield estimates was largest at the state and smallest at the county level for both crops. The refined strata had somewhat larger variances than those associated with the refined/split strata and CRD. For production estimates, the difference in standard deviations among levels was not large for corn, but for soybeans the standard deviation at the state level was more than 50% greater than for the other levels. The refined strata had the smallest standard deviations. The county level was not considered in evaluation of production estimates due to lack of county area variances.

Bauer, M. E.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Surface Salinity Variability in the North Atlantic During Recent Decades

The sea surface salinity (SSS) variability in the North Atlantic is investigated using numerical model simulations for the last 50 years based on atmospheric forcing variability from Comprehensive Atmosphere Ocean Data Set (COADS) and National Center for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis. The largest interannual and longer term variability occurs in two regions: the Labrador Sea and the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) region. In both regions the seasonality of the surface salinity variability is prominent with the maximum standard deviation occurring in the summer/fall period. In the Labrador Sea the summer SSS anomalies far exceed those of wintertime in amplitude. The interannual SSS variability in the subpolar gyre can be attributed to two factors: excess ice melt and heat flux (i.e. deep mixing) variations. On the other hand, heat flux variability can also lead to meridional overturning changes on decadal time scales such that weak overturning is manifested in fresh surface conditions in the subpolar gyre. The overturning changes also influence the NECC region SSS variability. Moreover, the subpolar freshening events are expected to occur during the negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation which is associated with a weak wintertime surface heat loss in the subpolar gyre. No excess sea ice melt or precipitation is necessary for the formation of the fresh anomalies, because with the lack of wide-spread deep mixing, the fresh water that would be expected based on climatology, would accumulate at the surface. Thus, the fresh water 'conveyor' in the Atlantic operates via the overturning circulation such that deep mixing inserts fresh water while removing heat from the water column.

Haekkinen, Sirpa↗

DOE OSTI2025

Search for CP violation in events with top quarks and Z bosons at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 and 13.6 TeV

A search for the violation of the charge-parity (CP) symmetry in the production of top quarks in association with Z bosons is presented, using events with at least three charged leptons and additional jets. The search is performed in a sample of proton-proton collision data collected by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC in 2016–2018 at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV and in 2022 at 13.6 TeV, corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 173 fb –1 . For the first time in this final state, observables that are odd under the CP transformation are employed. Also for the first time, physics-informed machine-learning techniques are used to construct these observables. While for standard model (SM) processes the distributions of these observables are predicted to be symmetric around zero, CP-violating modifications of the SM would introduce asymmetries. Two CP-odd operators $\mathcal{O}$$^{I}_{tW}$ and $\mathcal{O}$$^{I}_{tZ}$ in the SM effective field theory are considered that may modify the interactions between top quarks and electroweak bosons. The obtained results are consistent with the SM prediction within two standard deviations, and exclusion limits on the associated Wilson coefficients of –2.7 < $c$$^{I}_{tW}$ < 2.5 and –0.2 < $c$$^{I}_{tZ}$ < 2.0 and are set at 95 % confidence level. The largest discrepancy is observed in $c$$^{I}_{tZ}$ where data is consistent with positive values, with an observed local significance with respect to the SM hypothesis of 2.5 standard deviations, when only linear terms are considered.

CMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Representing Fine‐Scale Topographic Effects on Surface Radiation Balance in Hyper‐Resolution Land Surface Models

Land surface models are increasingly used to simulate land surface processes at hyper-spatial resolutions (e.g., ∼1 km). As model resolution increases, grid-scale topographic effects on surface radiation fluxes and their interactions between adjacent grids become more pronounced. However, current land surface models routinely neglect the fine-scale topographic effects on surface radiation balance. This study developed physically-based and computationally-efficient parameterizations (fineTOP) that explicitly resolve fine-scale topographic effects on downward shortwave and longwave radiation as well as land surface radiative properties. The newly developed parameterizations were implemented and tested in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM). Multi-decadal km-resolution ELM simulations over the California Sierra Nevada show that fine-scale topography significantly impacts the surface energy balance and snow processes across seasons. Slope determines the magnitude of topographic effects, while aspect controls their sign. For slopes larger than 30°, topography-induced change in annual surface temperature can be as large as 3.3 K. Regionally, the mean value and standard deviation of topography-induced changes in annual surface temperature are −0.22 ± 0.38 K and +0.25 ± 0.37 K over north-facing and south-facing slopes, respectively. Topography-induced changes in surface radiative properties account for 3.5% ± 13.8% of total topographic effects on annual net radiation. With fineTOP, ELM captures the aspect-dependence of snow cover fraction, snow water equivalent, and land surface temperature found in MODIS satellite observations and a snow reanalysis data set, while the default ELM fails to capture this phenomenon. The enhanced capability to represent fine-scale topographic effects on surface radiation balance can be used to advance understanding of the role of fine-scale topography in land surface processes and land-atmosphere interactions over mountainous regions.

Hao, Dalei [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Search for GeV-scale dark matter from the Galactic Center with IceCube-DeepCore

Models describing dark matter as a novel particle often predict that its annihilation or decay into Standard Model particles could produce a detectable neutrino flux in regions of high dark matter density, such as the Galactic Center. In this work, we search for these neutrinos using ∼9 years of IceCube-DeepCore data with an event selection optimized for energies between 15 to 200 GeV. We considered several annihilation and decay channels and dark matter masses ranging from 15 GeV up to 8 TeV. No significant deviation from the background expectation from atmospheric neutrinos and muons was found. The most significant result was found for a dark matter mass of 201.6 GeV annihilating into a pair of bb¯ quarks assuming the Navarro–Frenk–White halo profile with a post-trial significance of 1.08σ. We present upper limits on the thermally averaged annihilation cross section of the order of 10-24 cm3 s-1, as well as lower limits on the dark matter decay lifetime up to 1026 s for dark matter masses between 5 GeV up to 8 TeV. These results strengthen the current IceCube limits on dark matter masses above 20 GeV and provide an order of magnitude improvement at lower masses. In addition, they represent the strongest constraints from any neutrino telescope on GeV-scale dark matter and are among the world-leading limits for several dark matter scenarios.

Abbasi, R↗

NASA NTRS1983

An efficient algorithm for generating random number pairs drawn from a bivariate normal distribution

An efficient algorithm for generating random number pairs from a bivariate normal distribution was developed. Any desired value of the two means, two standard deviations, and correlation coefficient can be selected. Theoretically the technique is exact and in practice its accuracy is limited only by the quality of the uniform distribution random number generator, inaccuracies in computer function evaluation, and arithmetic. A FORTRAN routine was written to check the algorithm and good accuracy was obtained. Some small errors in the correlation coefficient were observed to vary in a surprisingly regular manner. A simple model was developed which explained the qualities aspects of the errors.

Campbell, C. W.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Cloud Inhomogeneity from MODIS

Two full months (July 2003 and January 2004) of MODIS Atmosphere Level-3 data from the Terra and Aqua satellites are analyzed in order to characterize the horizontal variability of cloud optical thickness and water path at global scales. Various options to derive cloud variability parameters are discussed. The climatology of cloud inhomogeneity is built by first calculating daily parameter values at spatial scales of l degree x 1 degree, and then at zonal and global scales, followed by averaging over monthly time scales. Geographical, diurnal, and seasonal changes of inhomogeneity parameters are examined separately for the two cloud phases, and separately over land and ocean. We find that cloud inhomogeneity is weaker in summer than in winter, weaker over land than ocean for liquid clouds, weaker for local morning than local afternoon, about the same for liquid and ice clouds on a global scale, but with wider probability distribution functions (PDFs) and larger latitudinal variations for ice, and relatively insensitive to whether water path or optical thickness products are used. Typical mean values at hemispheric and global scales of the inhomogeneity parameter nu (roughly the mean over the standard deviation of water path or optical thickness), range from approximately 2.5 to 3, while for the inhomogeneity parameter chi (the ratio of the logarithmic to linear mean) from approximately 0.7 to 0.8. Values of chi for zonal averages can occasionally fall below 0.6 and for individual gridpoints below 0.5. Our results demonstrate that MODIS is capable of revealing significant fluctuations in cloud horizontal inhomogenity and stress the need to model their global radiative effect in future studies.

Oreopoulos, Lazaros↗

NASA NTRS2005

A Posteriori Correction of Forecast and Observation Error Variances

Proposed method of total observation and forecast error variance correction is based on the assumption about normal distribution of "observed-minus-forecast" residuals (O-F), where O is an observed value and F is usually a short-term model forecast. This assumption can be accepted for several types of observations (except humidity) which are not grossly in error. Degree of nearness to normal distribution can be estimated by the symmetry or skewness (luck of symmetry) a(sub 3) = mu(sub 3)/sigma(sup 3) and kurtosis a(sub 4) = mu(sub 4)/sigma(sup 4) - 3 Here mu(sub i) = i-order moment, sigma is a standard deviation. It is well known that for normal distribution a(sub 3) = a(sub 4) = 0.

Rukhovets, Leonid↗

NASA NTRS2010

Weather, Climate, and Society: New Demands on Science and Services

A new algorithm has been constructed to estimate the path length of lightning channels for the purpose of improving the model predictions of lightning NOx in both regional air quality and global chemistry/climate models. This algorithm was tested and applied to VHF signals detected by the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA). The accuracy of the algorithm was characterized by comparing algorithm output to the plots of individual discharges whose lengths were computed by hand. Several thousands of lightning flashes within 120 km of the NALMA network centroid were gathered from all four seasons, and were analyzed by the algorithm. The mean, standard deviation, and median statistics were obtained for all the flashes, the ground flashes, and the cloud flashes. Channel length distributions were also obtained for the different seasons.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning Vacancy Formation Energy in Nickel-Based Superalloys

Thermal vacancies play a critical role in high-temperature Ni-based superalloys and influence various properties such as creep resistance, oxidation, etc. This study systematically investigates the impact of commonly used transition metals (Cr, Co, Fe), refractory metals (Nb, Ta, Mo, W) and other elements (Al, Cu, Ti, Mn) on the thermodynamic stability of 36 binary, 20 ternary, 11 quaternary, 9 quinary, and 3 senary FCC Ni-based alloys covering various elemental combinations. Density functional theory-based studies on Ni-X binary alloys show that higher concentrations of Cr, Nb, Ta, Al, and Ti introduce significant lattice distortions and broaden the distribution of vacancy formation energies (standard deviation up to 0.15 eV). These elements partially donate electrons, reducing their self-consistent chemical potentials relative to single-element reference values and lowering vacancy formation energies, while Co, Fe, Mo, and W show lower charge localization. These trends extend from 3-6 element alloys, where Cr, Nb, and Ta-rich compositions have low-energy states (~0.5 eV) that increase vacancy concentrations. Finally, graph neural network models are developed to screen over 5000 virtual alloys. Eleven leading compositions are identified with mean vacancy formation energy higher than 1.75 eV and vacancy concentration ~2 orders of magnitude lower than pure Ni at 1000 K. These results provide valuable guidelines to achieve controlled defect engineering in structural alloys.

DFT↗

NASA NTRS2018

Physics-Based Retrieval of Surface Roughness Parameters for Bare Soils from Combined Active-Passive Microwave Signatures

In the past the effect of soil roughness was often considered secondary within the determination of soil moisture from remote sensing data. Several studies showed that accurate determination of soil roughness leads to an improved estimation of soil moisture. Two default parameters to describe the surface roughness are the standard deviation of the surface height variation 𝑠 and the surface correlation length 𝑙 with its corresponding autocorrelation function. Both parameters (𝑠,𝑙) affect the emissivity measured by radiometers as well as the backscattering observed by radars. In this study, we develop a physics-based approach to retrieve 𝑠 and 𝑙 by combining both microwave signals based on active-passive microwave covariation. To test the approach, containing a forward model and a retrieval algorithm, we used active/passive microwave data measured with the ComRAD truck-based SMAP simulator at L-band. Results and validations with corresponding field measurements on ground show that 𝑠 and 𝑙 can be estimated simultaneously when using this approach. The physics-based retrieval algorithm works robustly for two investigated test fields having an RMS-Error of 0.68 cm and 0.69 cm between the microwave-based and field-measured 𝑠-values, and of 3.13 cm and 3.04 cm for 𝑙-values. The first validation of the results reveals that the influence of the autocorrelation function, needed within the retrieval, is distinct.

correlation length↗

DOE OSTI2025

Characterization and prediction of the electromechanical wear of contact tips during wire arc additive manufacturing of 316L stainless steel

Here, this study seeks to better understand the degradation of the contact tip with respect to WAAM for a 316L wire electrode as well as explore methods of monitoring the contact tip state from process data. The contact tip, a consumable component, positions the wire and serves as the electrical contact surface between the wire electrode and the welding power supply. The wear of the contact tip was characterized in terms of material loss and material contamination for a set of tips worn to discrete levels as measured by the amount of wire fed or arc time. Geometrical characterization found a 49% increase in the bore exit area at 180 meters of wire fed. Machine learning models were developed to predict the relative bore exit area of the contact tip from arc-based process data and a random forest classifier exhibited favorable performance with a cross-validated f1-score of 0.84. The regression architecture implemented a multi-layer perceptron with the ability to predict the relative exit area with an $R^2$ score of 0.75. Key features used in the prediction include the standard deviation of the voltage and the time between shorts.

Contact tip wear↗

DOE OSTI2024

Observation of the J / ψ → μ + μ − μ + μ − decay in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV

The J / ψ → μ + μ − μ + μ − decay has been observed with a statistical significance in excess of five standard deviations. The analysis is based on an event sample of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, collected by the CMS experiment in 2018 and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 33.6 fb − 1 . Normalizing to the J / ψ → μ + μ − decay mode leads to a branching fraction of [ 10.1 − 2.7 + 3.3 ( stat ) ± 0.4 ( syst ) ] × 10 − 7 , a value that is consistent with the standard model prediction. © 2024 CERN, for the CMS Collaboration 2024 CERN

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1980

Simulator results of an F-14A airplane utilizing an aileron-rudder interconnect during carrier approaches and landings

A piloted simulator study was conducted to evaluate an aileron rudder interconnect (ARI) control system for the F-14A airplane in the landing configuration. Effects on pilot performance and handling characteristics were investigated. Two ARI configurations were tested and compared to the standard F-14 fleet control system. A nonlinear aerodynamic model of the F-14 was used in conjunction with a six degree of freedom motion base simulator. The evaluation task, which utilized three subject pilots, consistent of a night carrier approach and landing. Both ARI configurations produced improved pilot performance and pilot ratings when compared to the standard control system. Sideslip due to adverse yaw as considerably reduced by the ARI systems and heading control was more stable and precise. Lateral deviation from centerline was reduced during the approach and lateral touchdown dispersion on the carrier deck was reduced with the ARI control systems.

Kelly, W. W.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Computations of Combustion-Powered Actuation for Dynamic Stall Suppression

A computational framework for the simulation of dynamic stall suppression with combustion-powered actuation (COMPACT) is validated against wind tunnel experimental results on a VR-12 airfoil. COMPACT slots are located at 10% chord from the leading edge of the airfoil and directed tangentially along the suction-side surface. Helicopter rotor-relevant flow conditions are used in the study. A computationally efficient two-dimensional approach, based on unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS), is compared in detail against the baseline and the modified airfoil with COMPACT, using aerodynamic forces, pressure profiles, and flow-field data. The two-dimensional RANS approach predicts baseline static and dynamic stall very well. Most of the differences between the computational and experimental results are within two standard deviations of the experimental data. The current framework demonstrates an ability to predict COMPACT efficacy across the experimental dataset. Enhanced aerodynamic lift on the downstroke of the pitching cycle due to COMPACT is well predicted, and the cycleaveraged lift enhancement computed is within 3% of the test data. Differences with experimental data are discussed with a focus on three-dimensional features not included in the simulations and the limited computational model for COMPACT.

Jee, Solkeun↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the Representativity of Electrode Microstructure Parameters and Their Electrochemical Response for Lithium Ion Batteries

Lithium-ion battery electrochemical models require an accurate description of the electrodes microstructures to be predictive that can be achieved through nanoscale imaging. Such observations are however limited by their field of view (FOV), as they provide only a subset of the whole electrode volume that does not necessarily represent the whole electrode microstructure heterogeneity, and therefore can bias the microstructure analysis. A microstructure scale electrochemical model was used to investigate lithium plating onset, material non-uniform utilization, and in-plane heterogeneities for an NMC-graphite full cell. To evaluate the representativeness, and thus relevance, of these model predictions, a coupled representativity analysis has been performed on the microstructure parameters and, in a novel way, on the full cell electrochemical response. Electrode microstructure parameters representativeness has been first quantified using the representative volume element (RVE) methodology. The RVE major flaw is that ultimately it can only conclude if a FOV contains representative subvolumes of the FOV, but not if the FOV itself is representative of the electrode volume. Analysis can conclude negatively ('FOV is not representative'), but not positively ('FOV is representative'). One major contribution of this work was to quantify the convergence of the RVE size with the FOV, to actually investigate the FOV representativeness and thus partly remedy this intrinsic limitation. The analysis determined that performing a standard RVE calculation, without exploring its FOV convergence, is likely to strongly underestimate the actual RVE size. The new RVE methodology has been automated in the NREL open-source Microstructure Analysis Toolbox (MATBOX) and is available to the battery community. Representativeness of microstructure parameters is however only an intermediate step, as the end-results of an electrochemical model are performances predictions. Indeed, what is the practical consequence of a given deviation for a microstructure parameter? The microstructure parameter deviation propagations to the 3D microstructure scale electrochemical response have been then quantified for different charge rates. This defines a threshold for the microstructure parameters FOV for a desired maximum deviation of the electrochemical response. Such deviation propagation analysis is analogous to error propagation analysis and is necessary to determine the relevance of microstructure scale model predictions for macroscale predictions. Electrochemical model shows cell representative section areas are increasing with C-rate, due to higher in-plane heterogeneities, indicating larger FOVs are required specifically for fast charge modeling. Therefore, we introduced the novel concept of electrochemical RVE (eRVE) that is a function of the operating conditions (thus defined as a dynamic RVE), with an increasing dependence with the C-rate. Representativity analysis of the investigated cell determined a FOV of 144.4 x 54.4 m2 is large enough to establish a convergence on the representative section areas for low to intermediate C-rate (=2.5C), but not large enough to conclude for higher rates. This work aims to emphasize the importance of representativity analysis for LIB electrode microstructures, as it is required to estimate the error, and thus the relevance, of microstructure parameters intended to be used in macroscale models. The methodology and results can help researchers to select the relevant imaging and associated FOV required to provide accurate enough microstructure parameters.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Low-Energy Neutrino-Nucleus Scattering and New Physics

The interactions of low-energy neutrinos with nuclei provide a unique window to explore various Standard Model (SM) and Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) processes. In particular, the recent observation of coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering (CEvNS), predicted over five decades ago, has generated significant interest across disciplines. With its high cross section and suitability for compact detectors, particularly with stopped pion neutrinos, CEvNS offers a powerful probe for light, weakly coupled new physics. Ongoing global experimental efforts now aim to leverage CEvNS to test SM predictions and search for BSM signals, where deviations in event rates or spectra could reveal new physics. We present here an estimate of the number of recoil events obtained from CEvNS using the current and upcoming liquid argon based experiments. Furthermore, the event rate due to the inclusion of neutrino magnetic moment is also discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS2016

Consistent Evaluation of ACOS-GOSAT, BESD-SCIAMACHY, CarbonTracker, and MACC Through Comparisons to TCCON

Consistent validation of satellite CO2 estimates is a prerequisite for using multiple satellite CO2 measurements for joint flux inversion, and for establishing an accurate long-term atmospheric CO2 data record. Harmonizing satellite CO2 measurements is particularly important since the differences in instruments, observing geometries, sampling strategies, etc. imbue different measurement characteristics in the various satellite CO2 data products. We focus on validating model and satellite observation attributes that impact flux estimates and CO2 assimilation, including accurate error estimates, correlated and random errors, overall biases, biases by season and latitude, the impact of coincidence criteria, validation of seasonal cycle phase and amplitude, yearly growth, and daily variability. We evaluate dry-air mole fraction (X(sub CO2)) for Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) (Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space, ACOS b3.5) and SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) (Bremen Optimal Estimation DOAS, BESD v2.00.08) as well as the CarbonTracker (CT2013b) simulated CO2 mole fraction fields and the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) CO2 inversion system (v13.1) and compare these to Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) observations (GGG2012/2014). We find standard deviations of 0.9, 0.9, 1.7, and 2.1 parts per million vs. TCCON for CT2013b, MACC, GOSAT, and SCIAMACHY, respectively, with the single observation errors 1.9 and 0.9 times the predicted errors for GOSAT and SCIAMACHY, respectively. We quantify how satellite error drops with data averaging by interpreting according to (error(sup 2) equals a(sup 2) plus b(sup 2) divided by n (with n being the number of observations averaged, a the systematic (correlated) errors, and b the random (uncorrelated) errors). a and b are estimated by satellites, coincidence criteria, and hemisphere. Biases at individual stations have year-to-year variability of 0.3 parts per million, with biases larger than the TCCON predicted bias uncertainty of 0.4 parts per million at many stations. We find that GOSAT and CT2013b under-predict the seasonal cycle amplitude in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) between 46 and 53 degrees North latitude, MACC over-predicts between 26 and 37 degrees North latitude, and CT2013b under-predicts the seasonal cycle amplitude in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The seasonal cycle phase indicates whether a data set or model lags another data set in time. We find that the GOSAT measurements improve the seasonal cycle phase substantially over the prior while SCIAMACHY measurements improve the phase significantly for just two of seven sites. The models reproduce the measured seasonal cycle phase well except for at Lauder_125HR (CT2013b) and Darwin (MACC). We compare the variability within 1 day between TCCON and models in June-July-August; there is correlation between 0.2 and 0.8 in the NH, with models showing 10-50 percent the variability of TCCON at different stations and CT2013b showing more variability than MACC. This paper highlights findings that provide inputs to estimate flux errors in model assimilations, and places where models and satellites need further investigation, e.g., the SH for models and 45-67 degrees North latitude for GOSAT and CT2013b.

ACOS-GOSAT↗