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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2026

Measurements of TRACER pre-convective conditions and mesoscale circulations using small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS)

Improved comprehension of the physical processes governing convective cloud formation and lifecycle are of critical importance for understanding and predicting future climate states. The influence of these clouds on the planetary energy budget, including on precipitation, is significant. Things are particularly complex in coastal regimes, where gradients in aerosol particle properties, localized circulations such as sea breezes, and large population centers are found. To date, numerical models struggle to accurately represent these critical clouds and are therefore challenged to provide a realistic view on the planetary energy budget. Through the proposed research, we deployed two uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) equipped with a variety of instruments alongside sensors deployed by the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for the TRACER (Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment) field campaign. The two small UAS platforms consisted of a CU RAAVEN fixed-wing airplane and an OU CopterSonde system, with the copter collecting frequent vertical profiles of thermodynamic and kinematic variables such as temperature, pressure, wind and humidity. At the same time, the fixed-wing captured horizontal gradients of these quantities and aerosol size distribution. These systems were deployed south of the Houston metro area, in an area that is impacted by the Gulf of Mexico sea breeze on a daily basis. These observations offer enhanced and complementary perspectives to those provided by the DOE ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) which is was deployed in southeast Houston, and an ancillary site in a more rural location west of the urban Houston area. Quality-controlled versions of the UAS data were collected and posted on the DOE ARM data archive after the conclusion of the campaign where they are accessible by the research community and general public. The UAS perspective offers revolutionary insight into key spatial and temporal effects that have not been evaluated previously.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Reactive Power on Photovoltaic Inverter Reliability and Lifetime

This paper performs research on predicting Photovoltaic (PV) inverters reliability and lifetime based on thermal cycling. Thermal cycling is considered the most important stressors in an inverter system. In order to achieve this, a detailed electro-thermal model of the PV inverter will be developed along with their controllers capable of providing voltage support through reactive power. An in-house inverter was built, and a PV inverter model was developed to match the physical inverter. The PV inverter electrothermal model was validated for different ambient temperatures to match the in-house inverter hardware. The in-house inverter was placed inside a thermal chamber to emulate different ambient temperatures and their losses and temperature rises within the system were measured. After the validation of the model, a reduced order model of the inverter will be implemented to translate the mission profile of ambient temperature and solar irradiance into load profile of junction temperatures of the switches. The junction temperature data will be used to identify the reliability indices and hence predict the useful lifetime of the inverter system. Along with the model to predict useful lifetime of the system, the impact of reactive power on the overall reliability of the system will be studied. The key observation in this paper shows that lifetime of the inverter decreases as the operating power factor moves away from unity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Determination of the characteristic magnetic pre-sheath length at divertor surfaces using micro-engineered targets on DiMES at DIII-D

The magnetic pre-sheath (MPS) width, L MPS , is a critical parameter to define the sheath potential, which controls the ion trajectory of low-Z species (D, T, He, and C), as well as the prompt re-deposition of high-Z species. In this work, to determine L MPS , we fabricated micro-trenches (30×30×4 µm) via focused ion beam (FIB) milling on a silicon surface and exposed them to L-mode deuterium plasmas in DIII-D via the Divertor Material Evaluation System (DiMES) removable sample exposure probe. The areal distribution of impurity depositions, mainly consisting of carbon, was measured by energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) to reveal the deuterium ion shadowing effect on the trench floors. The carbon deposition profiles showed that the erosion was maximized for the azimuthal direction of φ = -40° (referenced to the toroidal magnetic field direction) as well as the polar angle of θ = 80°. A Monte Carlo equation-of-motion model, based on a collisionless MPS, was used to calculate the azimuthal and polar deuterium ion angle distributions (IADs) for a range of L MPS = k × ρ i , where ρ i is the ion gyro radius and k = 0.5-4. Then, gross erosion profiles were calculated by a Monte Carlo micro-patterning and roughness (MPR) code for ion sputtering using as input the calculated azimuthal and polar IADs for each value of k . Good agreement with the experimental C deposition profiles was obtained for the case k = 2.5-3.5. This result is consistent with a previous kinetic modeling prediction of k ~ 3, as well as previous analytical investigations that predicted the L MPS to be several ion gyro radii. A validation of theoretical sheath models supports its applicability to ITER and pilot plant divertors to successfully predict plasma-materials interactions.

Erosion↗
DOE OSTI2022

DC-Link Current Minimization Control for Current Source Converter-Based Solid-State Transformer

This article proposes a fast predictive control method and a small DC-link inductor to minimize the DC-link current in current-source converter (CSC)-based solid-state transformer. The DC-link current minimization can significantly reduce power loss and improve efficiency. The challenge of this problem is on improving both steady-state and dynamic performance. PI control methods and large DC-link inductors are conventionally used in the CSC but have limited dynamic performance. A model predictive control (MPC) method is proposed to achieve switching-cycle-level settling time, and the DC-link inductor is sized for 40% ripple to enable fast current change. Importantly, this article also proposes to minimize the DC-link current by varying the current even within a line cycle under single-phase load to improve the steady-state performance, in contrast with the reduction to a constant value in the literature. The proposed MPC features a constant switching frequency without weighting factors. The MPC does not have a high computational burden and is implemented in a regular digital controller for a prototype of soft-switching solid-state transformer (S4T) with reduced conduction loss. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been experimentally verified on the SiC S4T prototype during steady-state and dynamics under different multiport power flow conditions up to 2 kV peak. Here, the DC-link current in the experiments is close to the minimum current with a short zero-vector duration, which further verifies the performance of the proposed method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Flexible AI Models for Grid Resilience

The rapid growth in size and complexity of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) models has led to increased energy demands, posing a threat to the reliability of the existing power grid. This project addresses the challenge of highly intermittent and energy-intensive inference workloads by (1) developing fidelity-adaptive neural networks capable of dynamic response to grid conditions and (2) integrating these networks with power flow simulations to assess their impact on power grid reliability. We will explore both top-down and bottom-up approaches to create hierarchies of submodels that provide a controlled trade-off between power draw and prediction accuracy. The top-down method utilizes NN pruning to reduce a flagship model into progressively smaller, energy-efficient variants. The bottom-up approach employs geometrically principled weight setting strategies to construct depth-efficient models from the ground up. A real-time hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform will be developed to simulate a scaled AC power grid, integrating live AI workload power draw and enabling dynamic model switching in response to grid feedback. This work will provide a novel framework for evaluating the impact of flexible AI/ML workloads on grid performance and establish new methodologies for energy-aware computing in data centers. The outcomes will demonstrate that adaptive AI/ML can play a critical role in improving grid stability while advancing NREL's leadership in energy-efficient computing research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of fuel film formation and soot emissions in a GDI engine during cold-start with Split-injection strategies

This study investigates the impact of fuel-film formation on engine-out soot emissions in a gasoline direct injection (GDI) engine under cold-start conditions. Split-injection strategies were applied by varying the number of injections, injection duration, and total fuel quantity to affect wall wetting and control the average in-cylinder equivalence ratio. A combined experimental and numerical approach was employed to analyze fuel-film deposition, combustion efficiency, and engine-out soot and unburnt hydrocarbons (UHC) emissions. In particular, fuel film distribution estimated by means of non-reacting, 3-D, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, together with experimentally measured soot data, were used to investigate fuel film formation and its role in soot generation. In the experiments, a skip-fired engine control strategy was applied to mimic the transient nature of engine cold-start operation. The results indicate that, under the same total number of injections, increasing the average in-cylinder equivalence ratio through longer injection durations improves combustion stability, as indicated by the decrease of the coefficient of variation of IMEP n (Net Indicated Mean Effective Pressure) from 6.0 % to 0.6 %. However, this strategy leads to higher soot emissions, which increased by nearly an order of magnitude, primarily due to enhanced wall-film formation. In contrast, increasing the number of injections while maintaining a constant equivalence ratio significantly impacts fuel-film deposition and, consequently, soot emissions, with a fivefold reduction of the measured engine-out soot, decreasing from 3.5 mg to 0.7 mg. A soot-film correlation was developed and achieved a high coefficient of determination (r 2 = 0.95) and was further extended to account for spark timing effects. These findings confirm the effectiveness of split-injection for avoiding wall film formation and soot emissions, and the critical role of fuel film in soot generation, supporting the hypothesis that pool fires play a crucial role in contributing to soot formation under these cold-start conditions. In conclusion, the study also indicates the value of a predictive soot-film correlation for developing cold-start emission control strategies.

Engine Cold-start↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Total Methane Emissions from the Denver-Julesburg Basin Using Bottom-Up Approaches

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas with a 25 times higher 100-year warming potential than carbon dioxide and is a target for mitigation to achieve climate goals. To control and curb methane emissions, estimates are required from the sources and sectors which are typically generated using bottom-up methods. However, recent studies have shown that national and international bottom-up approaches can significantly underestimate emissions. In this study, we present three bottom-up approaches used to estimate methane emissions from all emission sectors in the Denver-Julesburg basin, CO, USA. Our data show emissions generated from all three methods are lower than historic measurements. A Tier 1/2 approach using IPCC emission factors estimated 2022 methane emissions of 358 Gg (0.8% of produced methane lost by the energy sector), while a Tier 3 EPA-based approach estimated emissions of 269 Gg (0.2%). Using emission factors informed by contemporary and region-specific measurement studies, emissions of 212 Gg (0.2%) were calculated. The largest difference in emissions estimates were a result of using the Mechanistic Air Emissions Simulator (MAES) for the production and transport of oil and gas in the DJ basin. The MAES accounts for changes to regulatory practice in the DJ basin, which include comprehensive requirements for compressors, pneumatics, equipment leaks, and fugitive emissions, which were implemented to reduce emissions starting in 2014. The measurement revealed that normalized gas loss is predicted to have been reduced by a factor of 20 when compared to 10-year-old normalization loss measurements and a factor of 10 less than a nearby oil and production area (Delaware basin, TX); however, we suggest that more measurements should be made to ensure that the long-tail emission distribution has been captured by the modeling. This study suggests that regulations implemented by the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment could have reduced emissions by a factor of 20, but contemporary regional measurements should be made to ensure these bottom-up calculations are realistic.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Developing ML/AI Methods for High-Throughput Characterization of Multiple-Sensor Streams of Tokamak Dynamics for High-Speed Control (Final Report)

This project evaluated and developed new mathematical and algorithmic techniques capable of handling (in real-time) the growing amounts of data generated by modern fusion research. While existing numerical linear algebra (NLA) methods provide the backbone to classical data analysis and algorithms, these methods fundamentally do not port to distributed architectures nor do they allow low-latency data reduction for control. Motivated by the needs for modern fusion reactors, this project explored and implemented new numerical methods to characterize plasma dynamics, respond in real-time to discharge evolution, and to process massive-scale data accurately and rapidly more fully. This project links expertise in multiple-sensor diagnostics of tokamak plasma dynamics from Columbia University’s Plasma Physics Laboratory with expertise in massive-scale data reduction and extreme data control algorithms at Columbia University’s Data Science Institute. This interdisciplinary project (i) applied machine learning methods, (ii) implemented a properly-trained neural-network for very fast processing of high-speed plasma videography, and (ii) developed the applied mathematical methods, based on randomized-NLA (rNLA) routines, for data analysis, reduction, and real-time control. The Columbia University High Beta Tokamak-Extended Pulse (HBT-EP) facility provided data to test new algorithms and partnership with Columbia University's Data Sciences Institute evaluated the broader use of new algorithms for many challenging control applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Random Forest Regressor-Based Approach for Detecting Fault Location and Duration in Power Systems

Power system failures or outages due to short-circuits or “faults” can result in long service interruptions leading to significant socio-economic consequences. It is critical for electrical utilities to quickly ascertain fault characteristics, including location, type, and duration, to reduce the service time of an outage. Existing fault detection mechanisms (relays and digital fault recorders) are slow to communicate the fault characteristics upstream to the substations and control centers for action to be taken quickly. Fortunately, due to availability of high-resolution phasor measurement units (PMUs), more event-driven solutions can be captured in real time. In this paper, we propose a data-driven approach for determining fault characteristics using samples of fault trajectories. A random forest regressor (RFR)-based model is used to detect real-time fault location and its duration simultaneously. This model is based on combining multiple uncorrelated trees with state-of-the-art boosting and aggregating techniques in order to obtain robust generalizations and greater accuracy without overfitting or underfitting. Four cases were studied to evaluate the performance of RFR: 1. Detecting fault location (case 1), 2. Predicting fault duration (case 2), 3. Handling missing data (case 3), and 4. Identifying fault location and length in a real-time streaming environment (case 4). A comparative analysis was conducted between the RFR algorithm and state-of-the-art models, including deep neural network, Hoeffding tree, neural network, support vector machine, decision tree, naive Bayesian, and K-nearest neighborhood. Experiments revealed that RFR consistently outperformed the other models in detection accuracy, prediction error, and processing time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Variable-Impedance Magnetically-Insulated Transmission Lines as a Risk-Mitigation Measure for Next-Generation Pulsed Power

This project has produced the first detailed characterizations of power flow resulting from applying the “variable-impedance MITL” concept to real-life systems in Sandia’s pulsed power program (Z and next-generation pulsed power (NGPP)). We present simulation results and analyses for constant-impedance versions of both Z and NGPP and survey the operational viability of several variable-impedance re-designs in the parameter space of linear tapers. Circuit modeling (SCREAMER/Bertha) was used to pinpoint promising candidate designs, and EM-PIC (Empire) simulations were used to evaluate these candidates more rigorously. This approach was particularly successful in the Z regime which resulted in the identification of several viable variable-impedance MITL designs for each level. The approach was more challenged in the operating space NGPP occupies, producing data points that speak to a more restrictive design space due to anode plasma turn-on. In the end, we were able to converge on one viable variable-impedance design for the highest inductance line (level “F”) and one for the highest current line (level “A”). Altogether, the body of simulation evidence presented in this report suggest there does exist flexibility in operating space for magnetically-insulated transmission lines (MITLs) having variable geometric impedance to be a potential enabling technology for safely increasing current delivery (and potentially lowering stack voltage) in pulsed-power drivers by manipulating electron losses; however, operating points for a particular design must be carefully screened. Circuit and EM-PIC modeling provided consistent verdicts in safe operating regimes for operational viability, but additional physics such as anode plasma turn-on which is included in Empire but not in SCREAMER/Bertha was found to be a critical factor affecting power flow that lead to different assessments between the codes. It is not always the case that the occurrence of anode plasma caused a design to fail (some designs turned on anode plasma yet still delivered load currents meeting design targets); the details matter such as how early in the pulse anode surfaces break down (and how large a region). However, in every case that it did fail it was found that the feedback from anode plasma was the cause (i.e., turning off the anode plasma model in Empire restored agreement with the circuit model prediction). As circuit simulations represent an efficient and practical means of surveying design space compared to more computationally-expensive approaches such as EM-PIC, it could be prudent to invest in the research and development of models to include the effects of anode plasma such as ion emission in circuit codes. The variable-impedance MITL design is a new concept that enables controlled manipulation of the initial electron losses in the outer MITL and can be tested on Z today. We encourage follow-on work to explore further optimization (including alternative variable-impedance profiles, e.g., having constant dZ/dR), and to confirm the major findings presented in this report by fielding test hardware on actual Z shots.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tapping into the physiological responses to mistletoe infection during heat and drought stress

Mistletoes are important co-contributors to tree mortality globally, particularly during droughts. In Australia, mistletoe distributions are expanding in temperate woodlands, while their hosts have experienced unprecedented heat and drought stress in recent years. We investigated whether the excessive water use of mistletoes increased the probability of xylem emboli in a mature woodland during the recent record drought that was compounded by multiple heatwaves. Additionally, we continuously recorded transpiration ($T_{SLA}$) of infected and uninfected branches from two eucalypt species over two summers, monitored stem and leaf water potentials ($\Psi $) and used hydraulic vulnerability curves to estimate percent loss in conductivity (PLC) for each species. Variations in weather (vapor pressure deficit, photosynthetically active radiation, soil water content), host species and % mistletoe foliage explained 78% of hourly $T_{SLA}$. While mistletoe acted as an uncontrollable sink for water in the host even during typical summer days, daily $T_{SLA}$ increased up to 4-fold in infected branches on hot days, highlighting the previously overlooked importance of temperature stress in amplifying water loss in mistletoes. The increased water use of mistletoes resulted in significantly decreased host $\Psi _{\rm{leaf}}$ and $\Psi _{\rm{trunk}}$. It further translated to an estimated increase of up to 11% PLC for infected hosts, confirming greater hydraulic dysfunction of infected trees that place them at higher risk of hydraulic failure. However, uninfected branches of Eucalyptus fibrosa F.Muell. had much tighter controls on water loss than uninfected branches of Eucalyptus moluccana Roxb., which shifted the risk of hydraulic failure towards an increased risk of carbon starvation for E. fibrosa. The contrasting mechanistic responses to heat and drought stress between both co-occurring species demonstrates the complexity of host–parasite interactions and highlights the challenge in predicting species-specific responses to biotic agents in a warmer and drier climate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of an Embedded Fracture and Borehole Modeling Approach to the Understanding of EGS Collab Experiment 1

EGS Collab is a series of meso-scale experiments and associated numerical simulation activities being funded by the United States Department of Energy, Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to investigate enhanced geothermal system processes under in-situ stress and slightly elevated temperature conditions. This project is designed to provide scientists and engineers with immediate access to impermeable rock at scales larger than possible in the laboratory, but generally smaller than those for commercial production. Immediate access to rock is provided via the existing drifts of the former Homestake Gold Mine, now operated as the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota. The objectives of the EGS Collab project are to develop well controlled fracture networks between injector and producer boreholes using normal and shear stimulation for permeability enhancement. The first experimental site was located off the West Access drift on the 4850 Level (4850 feet below ground surface) in phyllite of the Precambrian Poorman formation, and involved the creation of a fracture network comprising a combination of hydraulic and natural fractures. A second experimental site is now being considered near the battery alcove on the 4100 Level in amphibolite and rhyolite of the Yates Unit. Data generated during these experiments will be compared against predictions of a suite of computer codes specifically designed to solve problems involving coupled thermal, hydrological, geomechanical, and geochemical processes. Comparisons between experimental and numerical simulation results will provide code developers with direction for improvements and verification of process models, build confidence in the suite of available numerical tools, and ultimately identify critical future development needs for the geothermal modeling community. Moreover, conducting thorough comparisons of models, modelling approaches, measurement approaches and measured data, via the EGS Collab project, will serve to identify techniques that are most likely to succeed at the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE), the GTO’s flagship EGS research effort. Experiment 1 has comprised a series of successful tests, including a long-term chilled-water circulation test, but the testbed has two atypical EGS elements. Active ventilation in the adjacent drift over a 50-year period cooled the testbed rock mass and hydraulic fracturing intersected monitoring boreholes making them conduits for fluid flow. Numerical simulations executed in support of the design of the EGS Collab Experiment 1, computed a radial temperature distribution and stress gradient orthogonal to the drift axis, resulting in the forecast of an oblong hydraulic fracture geometry, extended in the direction of the drift from the stimulation borehole. This paper describes the numerical simulation of long-term chilled-water circulation test with an embedded fracture and borehole modeling approach. The principal objective of the simulation work is show agreement between experimental observations in terms of production fluid temperatures, monitoring borehole temperatures, injection and production pressures, and tracer recoveries using a single conceptual model for the fracture network, using characterization and monitoring data generally available for EGS. A secondary objective is to improve the numerical simulation result comparisons with additional data available from the broader monitoring equipment within the testbed versus deeper, hotter, and more remote EGS. One complicating factor for comparisons between the numerical simulation results and experimental observations, is the Joule-Thomson heating associated with large pressure drops across the fracture network.

numerical simulation, embedded fractures and boreh↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Integrated View of Hydraulic Induced Fracture Geometry in Hydraulic Fracture Test Site 2

Until relatively recently, most of our understanding about the geometry of hydraulically induced fractures in unconventional reservoirs has been inferred by patterns observed via microseismic monitoring. Important information, such as fracture-azimuth, fracture-length, height-growth and other geometric data has been determined from microseismic “event clouds”, which in turn has been used to interpret a stimulated reservoir volume (SRV). It is important to note that relatively limited microseismic results have been acquired in conjunction with other diagnostics and validated in a consistent manner. The Hydraulic Fracture Test Site 2 (HFTS2) in the Permian Delaware Basin provides a unique opportunity to compare the frac geometry interpretations derived from multiple frac diagnostic tools and at multiple scales. The integrated view that emerges from all the frac diagnostic tools is that in HFTS2 the geometries of hydraulically induced fractures are not random and with a highly complex branching architecture. In fact, the fracs are mostly vertical, parallel plana domains, and both vertically and horizontally asymmetrical. The hydraulically induced fractures have a very consistent azimuth with a strike that matches SHmax. At the distance corresponding to the spacing between nearby wells in HFTS2, ~ 660 ft, the pattern of strain interceptions observed from Low Frequency Distributed Acoustic Sensing (LF-DAS) shows far-field dimensions that are consistent with the stage length dimensions at the stimulated well. In general, larger stages with higher number of clusters create larger number of interceptions and wider stimulated intervals than that of shorter stages with the same cluster to cluster spacing and fewer clusters. The hydraulically induced fractures also show a clear tendency to preferentially grow upwards as shown by the microseismic data, by the relative lower number of LF-DAS interceptions in nearby deeper wells and finally by the observed LF-DAS strain patterns in the vertical observation well. In the near field, the geometries of the fracture domains are also consistent. As shown by the distributed strain measurements obtained during production via the monitoring of Rayleigh Frequency Shift (RFS), each cluster has a separate, non-overlapping, frac-zone-domain that are generally centered around the locations of each perforation cluster. Overall, the hydraulically induced fractures in HFTS2 are interpreted as occurring in swarms associated with individual clusters, each with its own unique geometry but with similar predictable geometric and propagation tendencies. The comprehensive frac diagnostic program in HFTS2, the well-pad layout that permits the investigation of the Downloaded from http://onepetro.org/URTECONF/proceedings-pdf/21URTC/1-21URTC/D011S018R003/2477511/urtec-2021-5396-ms.pdf/1 by Carol Worster on 28 February 2022 URTeC 5396 2 impact that nearby producing wells has on frac geometry, together with an innovative Design of Experiment (DofE) that includes sequential-fracing, consistent cluster-to-cluster distances and few single-perforation cluster stages, has allowed us to gain a unique perspective about the geometry of the induced hydraulic fractures on this pad. Finally, the HFTS2 dataset has also provided us with a better understanding of the applicability and limitations of the different diagnostic tools.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-Centric Approach to Capture Non-Polynomial Nonlinear Dynamics

We propose an analytical construction of observable functions in the extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD) algorithm. EDMD is a numerical method for approximating the spectral properties of the Koopman operator. The choice of observable functions is fundamental for applying EDMD to nonlinear problems arising in systems and control. Existing methods either start from a set of dictionary functions and look for the subset that best fits the underlying nonlinear dynamics or rely on machine learning algorithms to “learn” observable functions. Conversely, in this paper, we start from the dynamical system model and lift it through the Lie derivatives, rendering it into a polynomial form. This proposed transformation into a polynomial form is exact and provides an adequate set of observable functions. The strength of the proposed approach is its applicability to a broader class of nonlinear dynamical systems, particularly those with nonpolynomial functions and compositions thereof. Moreover, it retains the physical interpretability of the underlying dynamical system and can be readily integrated into existing numerical libraries. We demonstrate the proposed approach with an application to electric power systems. The modeled system consists of a single generator connected to an infinite bus, where nonlinear terms include sine and cosine functions. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed procedure in off-attractor nonlinear dynamics for estimation and prediction; the observable functions obtained from the proposed construction outperform methods that use dictionary functions comprising monomials or radial basis functions.

extended dynamic mode decomposition↗
DOE OSTI2021

Subsurface Characterization and Machine Learning Predictions at Brady Hot Springs Results

Geothermal power plants typically show decreasing heat and power production rates over time. Mitigation strategies include optimizing the management of existing wells - increasing or decreasing the fluid flow rates across the wells - and drilling new wells at appropriate locations. The latter is expensive, time-consuming, and subject to many engineering constraints, but the former is a viable mechanism for periodic adjustment of the available fluid allocations. Data and supporting literature from a study describing a new approach combining reservoir modeling and machine learning to produce models that enable strategies for the mitigation of decreased heat and power production rates over time for geothermal power plants. The computational approach used enables translation of sets of potential flow rates for the active wells into reservoir-wide estimates of produced energy and discovery of optimal flow allocations among the studied sets. In our computational experiments, we utilize collections of simulations for a specific reservoir (which capture subsurface characterization and realize history matching) along with machine learning models that predict temperature and pressure timeseries for production wells. We evaluate this approach using an "open-source" reservoir we have constructed that captures many of the characteristics of Brady Hot Springs, a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA. Selected results from a reservoir model of Brady Hot Springs itself are presented to show successful application to an existing system. In both cases, energy predictions prove to be highly accurate: all observed prediction errors do not exceed 3.68% for temperatures and 4.75% for pressures. In a cumulative energy estimation, we observe prediction errors that are less than 4.04%. A typical reservoir simulation for Brady Hot Springs completes in approximately 4 hours, whereas our machine learning models yield accurate 20-year predictions for temperatures, pressures, and produced energy in 0.9 seconds. This paper aims to demonstrate how the models and techniques from our study can be applied to achieve rapid exploration of controlled parameters and optimization of other geothermal reservoirs. Includes a synthetic, yet realistic, model of a geothermal reservoir, referred to as open-source reservoir (OSR). OSR is a 10-well (4 injection wells and 6 production wells) system that resembles Brady Hot Springs (a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA) at a high level but has a number of sufficiently modified characteristics (which renders any possible similarity between specific characteristics like temperatures and pressures as purely random). We study OSR through CMG simulations with a wide range of flow allocation scenarios. Includes a dataset with 101 simulated scenarios that cover the period of time between 2020 and 2040 and a link to the published paper about this project, where we focus on the Machine Learning work for predicting OSR's energy production based on the simulation data, as well as a link to the GitHub repository where we have published the code we have developed (please refer to the repository's readme file to see instructions on how to run the code). Additional links are included to associated work led by the USGS to identify geologic factors associated with well productivity in geothermal fields. Below are the high-level steps for applying the same modeling + ML process to other geothermal reservoirs: 1. Develop a geologic model of the geothermal field. The location of faults, upflow zones, aquifers, etc. need to be accounted for as accurately as possible 2. The geologic model needs to be converted to a reservoir model that can be used in a reservoir simulator, such as, for instance, CMG STARS, TETRAD, or FALCON 3. Using native state modeling, the initial temperature and pressure distributions are evaluated, and they become the initial conditions for dynamic reservoir simulations 4....

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

NRAP-Open-IAM: NRAP Open Source Integrated Assessment Model

Note: This is the last version (a2.6.1) of NRAP-Open-IAM released during NRAP Phase II in 2022. The latest version of NRAP-Open-IAM is available here: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/phase-iii-nrap-open-iam NRAP-Open-IAM is an open-source software product that enables quantification of containment effectiveness and leakage risk at storage sites in the context of system uncertainties and variability. NRAP-Open-IAM represents the next-generation in a line of systems-based computational models developed for quantitative geological carbon storage (GCS) risk assessment. The model comprises a set of reduced-order and analytical models of various components of the GCS system, potential leakage pathways, receptors of concern including impact to groundwater resources and the atmosphere, a framework to support stochastic simulation, time stepping, uncertainty quantification, other analytical functionality for scenario and risk-performance evaluation, and a basic graphical user interface to support scenario development, data input simulation definition, and basic post-processing and results display. As the NRAP Open-IAM functionality continues to evolve, we continue to add to its capability to develop quantitative, probabilistic, and time-dependent profiles of the evolution of risk at a GCS site and evaluate the influence of uncertain parameters on uncertainty in predicted risk. It can be used to quantify the dynamics of reservoir saturation plume and pressure-affected area, for evaluation of the area of potential groundwater impact (i.e., Area of Review) and monitoring requirements to support cost and regulatory analysis, and for consideration of different post-injection site care and closure scenarios. This submission contains the current version of NRAP-Open-IAM available for evaluation and testing. To use the NRAP-Open-IAM, download the source code (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/4c24a3da-3b40-4ffe-9892-c807ae9f8760) then open the NRAP-Open-IAM user's guide (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669) to read more about the tool. Installation instructions for Windows, Mac, and Linux can be found in the "installers" folder of the extracted NRAP-Open-IAM folder and describe setup of environment (e.g., Python libraries) needed for proper work of the tool. Test of installation can be done by running "python openiam_setup_tests.py" in the "setup" folder. The installation test also runs a test suite to see if the NRAP-Open-IAM has been installed correctly. To run the test suite separately, run "python iam_test.py" in the "test" folder. User's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669 Developer's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/3bc6ee7d-609d-4eb6-80ba-fa6130ee0313 Reservoir simulation data used in some examples distributed with NRAP-Open-IAM: - Kimberlina: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/eb62cece-61b2-4037-9b6d-32407dde2ab8 - Kimberlina (compartmentalized): https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/366f9530-3b32-4b84-affe-ab2df1d9a8b5 - FutureGen 2.0: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/futuregen-2-0-1008-simulation-reservoir-lookup-table NRAP-Open-IAM GitLab repository: https://gitlab.com/NRAP/OpenIAM Related publications: - Bacon, D., Yonkofski, C., Brown, C., Demirkanli, D. and Whiting, J., 2019. Risk-based post injection site care and monitoring for commercial-scale carbon storage: Reevaluation of the FutureGen 2.0 site using NRAP-Open-IAM and DREAM. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 90: 102784. - Bacon, D. Demirkanli, D., and White, S., 2020. Probabilistic risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for a deep-saline carbon storage site. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 102: 103153. - Harp, D., Oldenburg, C., and Pawar, R., 2019. A metric for evaluating conformance robustness during geologic CO2 sequestration operations. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 85: 100-108. - Lackey, G., Vasylkivska, V., Huerta, N., King, S., and Dilmore, R., 2019. Managing well leakage risks at a geologic carbon storage site with many wells, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 88 :182-194. - Vasylkivska, V., Dilmore, R., Lackey, G., Zhang, Y., King, S., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., and Harp, D., 2021. NRAP-Open-IAM: A flexible open-source integrated assessment model for geologic carbon storage risk assessment and management, Environmental Modelling & Software, 143: 105114. Presentations: - Chen, B., Harp, D., and Pawar, R., A data assimilation approach (ES-MDA) coupling with NRAP-Open-IAM for quantifying uncertainty reduction in geological CO2 sequestration. AGUFM 2019: T44A-02. - Chen, B., and Harp, D., Improving risk analysis precision for geologic CO2 sequestration by quantifying the uncertainty reduction before and after acquiring monitoring data. 14th Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies Conference, Melbourne, Australia, 2018, pp. 21-26. - Harp, D., National Risk Assessment Partnership Task 2: Containment Assurance. No. LA-UR-19-28654, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States), 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., King, S., Bacon, D., Harp, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., Onishi, T., Yang, Y., Zhang, Y., and Keating, E., NRAP-Open-IAM: An open-source integrated assessment model, poster, Mastering the Subsurface Through Technology Innovation, Partnerships and Collaboration: Carbon Storage and Oil and Natural Gas Technologies Review Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 13-16, 2018. - Vasylkivska, V., Lackey, G., King, S., Wentworth, A., Huerta, N., Creason, C., DiGiulio, J., Yang, Y., and Dilmore, R., Long-term risk analysis of a geologic CO2 storage project during the post-injection period, SIAM Conference on Computational Science and Engineering, Spokane, WA, February 25-March 1, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Overview of the NRAP-Open-IAM tool for carbon storage (beta release), 2019 Annual NRAP Tool Users Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 27, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Dilmore, R., Harp, D., King, S., Lackey, G., Lindner, E., Liu, G., Mansoor, K. and Zhang, Y., NRAP-Open-IAM: A new, open-source code for integrated assessment of geologic carbon storage containment effectiveness and leakage risk, poster, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2020 (virtual meeting), December 2020. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP open-source integrated assessment model and relevant application, oral presentation, NRAP workshop "NRAP Tools for Geologic Carbon Storage Risk-Based Decision Making" held in conjunction with Groundwater Protection Council (GWPC) 2021 Annual Forum (virtual meeting), Salt Lake City, UT, September 2021. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP-Open-IAM: open-source integrated assessment model, digital poster/demonstration, software demonstration session, 2022 Carbon Management Project Review Meeting, August 16, 2022

AoR↗
DOE OSTI2025

Testing the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich power spectrum of a halo model using hydrodynamical simulations

Statistical properties of large-scale cosmological structures serve as powerful tools for constraining the cosmological properties of our Universe. Tracing the gas pressure, the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (tSZ) effect is a biased probe of mass distribution and, hence, can be used to test the physics of feedback or cosmological models. Therefore, it is crucial to develop robust modelling of hot gas pressure for applications to tSZ surveys. Since gas collapses into bound structures, it is expected that most of the tSZ signal is within halos produced by cosmic accretion shocks. Hence, simple empirical halo models can be used to predict the tSZ power spectra. In this study, we employed the HMx halo model to compare the tSZ power spectra with those of several hydrodynamical simulations: the Horizon suite and the Magneticum simulation. We examine various contributions to the tSZ power spectrum across different redshifts, including the one- and two-halo term decomposition, the amount of bound gas, the importance of different masses, and the electron pressure profiles. Our comparison of the tSZ power spectrum reveals discrepancies between the halo model and cosmological simulations that increase with redshift. We find a 20% to 50% difference between the measured and predicted tSZ angular power spectrum over the multipole range ℓ = 10 3 − 10 4 . Our analysis reveals that these differences are driven by the excess of power in the predicted two-halo term at low k and in the one-halo term at high k . At higher redshifts ( z ∼ 3), simulations indicate that more power comes from outside the virial radius than from inside, suggesting a limitation in the applicability of the halo model. We also observe differences in the pressure profiles, despite the fair level of agreement on the tSZ power spectrum at low redshift with the default calibration of the halo model. In conclusion, our study suggests that the properties of the halo model need to be carefully controlled against real or mock data to be proven useful for cosmological purposes.

Ayçoberry, Emma (ORCID:0000000292351195)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Forest reorganisation effects on fuel moisture content can exceed changes due to climate warming in wet temperate forests

Abstract The distributions of vegetation and fire activity are changing rapidly in response to climate warming. In many regions, climate effects on dead fuel moisture content (FMC) are expected to increase future wildfire activity. However, forest FMC is largely driven by microclimate conditions, which are moderated from open weather by vegetation canopies. As shifts in vegetation increase under climate warming, the extent to which future fire activity will be driven by climate directly or associated vegetation shifts remains unresolved. Here, we present a study aimed at quantifying the relative magnitudes of (i) direct climate warming, and (ii) vegetation change, on FMC. Field sites to evaluate these effects were established in a natural laboratory of altered forest states to mature wet temperate forest in south‐eastern Australia. FMC was estimated using a process‐based model and 48 years of reconstructed climate data. Canopy effects on microclimate were captured by transferring inputs from climate to microclimate using models parameterised with field observations. To evaluate the relative magnitude of climate and vegetation effects, we calculated the maximum difference in mean annual FMC across annual climate replicates and compared this to FMC differences across reorganising forest sites. Our results show vegetation effects on FMC can exceed those related to expected climate change. Changes to forest structure and composition increased (+15.7%) and decreased (−12.3%) mean annual FMC, with a larger negative effect when forest cover was completely removed (−18.5%). In contrast, the largest climate effect on FMC was −6.6% across 48‐years of data. Our study demonstrates that the magnitude of vegetation effects on FMC can exceed expected climate change effects. Models of future fire activity that do not account for changing vegetation effects on microclimate are omitting a key biophysical control on FMC and therefore may not be accurately predicting future fire activity.

Brown, Tegan P.↗