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Exceedance Probabilities and Recurrence Intervals for Extended Power Outages in the United States

This report provides estimates of recurrence intervals and conditional exceedance probabilities for major power outages by U.S. region between 2015 and 2021. Additionally, we provide estimates for grid management, particularly outages caused by California’s public safety power shutoffs (PSPS), and for natural outages caused by major hurricanes. Outage recurrence intervals are the average number of years between outage events, and conditional exceedance probabilities are the likelihoods that a customer who experiences a major power outage will experience an outage exceeding a given duration. Major outage events are those that affect 10,000 or more customers, as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Electric Emergency Incident and Disturbance Report, called OE-417 (DOE 2020). These results can be applied to determine the likelihood of experiencing long-duration outages, which can be integrated into cost-benefit analyses of resilience solutions and broader energy resilience studies.

Ericson, Sean [National Renewable Energy Laborator

A Battery Charger and State of Charge Indicator

A battery charger which has a full wave rectifier in series with a transformer isolated 20 kHz dc-dc converter with high frequency switches, which are programmed to actively shape the input dc line current to be a mirror image of the ac line voltage is discussed. The power circuit operates at 2 kW peak and 1 kW average power. The BC/SCI has two major subsystems: (1) the battery charger power electronics with its controls; and (2) a microcomputer subsystem which is used to acquire battery terminal data and exercise the state of charge software programs. The state of charge definition employed is the energy remaining in the battery when extracted at a 10 kW rate divided by the energy capacity of a fully charged new battery. The battery charger circuit is an isolated boost converter operating at an internal frequency of 20 kHz. The switches selected for the battery charger are the single most important item in determining its efficiency. The combination of voltage and current requirements dictate the use of high power NPN Darlington switching transistors. The power circuit topology is a three switch design which utilizes a power FET on the center tap of the isolation transformer and the power Darlingtons on each of the two ends. An analog control system is employed to accomplish active input current waveshaping as well as the necessary regulation.

Latos, T. S.

A Laboratory Breadboard System for Dual-Arm Teleoperation

The computing architecture of a novel dual-arm teleoperation system is described. The novelty of this system is that: (1) the master arm is not a replica of the slave arm; it is unspecific to any manipulator and can be used for the control of various robot arms with software modifications; and (2) the force feedback to the general purpose master arm is derived from force-torque sensor data originating from the slave hand. The computing architecture of this breadboard system is a fully synchronized pipeline with unique methods for data handling, communication and mathematical transformations. The computing system is modular, thus inherently extendable. The local control loops at both sites operate at 100 Hz rate, and the end-to-end bilateral (force-reflecting) control loop operates at 200 Hz rate, each loop without interpolation. This provides high-fidelity control. This end-to-end system elevates teleoperation to a new level of capabilities via the use of sensors, microprocessors, novel electronics, and real-time graphics displays. A description is given of a graphic simulation system connected to the dual-arm teleoperation breadboard system. High-fidelity graphic simulation of a telerobot (called Phantom Robot) is used for preview and predictive displays for planning and for real-time control under several seconds communication time delay conditions. High fidelity graphic simulation is obtained by using appropriate calibration techniques.

A K Bejczy

Chapter 19A – Radar Cross Section

The material in this Section will provide the novice Flight Test Engineer (FTE) with a brief overview of the radar cross section (RCS) concept. Brief details of radar range descriptions, operations, target calibrations, and data reduction are included. It is noted that these range operations concentrate on the "static" test range rather than the much more sophisticated "dynamic" test range. The dynamic test range is what the FTE will probably work with. Radar reflectivity measurement has developed over the last two decades from a relatively simple endeavor involving the measurement of target RCS amplitude statistics to involving wide band, coherent systems that can measure high resolution images of targets as well as, in many cases, the polarization and phasing properties. This rapid growth in RCS technology has occurred because of the increased use of radar in today's commercial and military systems. In general, the goal for commercial systems is to enhance radar reflectivity, whereas the military goal is to reduce radar reflectivity. Also, classification and identification are important for military purposes because in adverse weather radar may be the only system that may be capable of separating enemy targets from friendly ones. This Section will discuss the fundamentals of RCS. Since the flight test techniques associated with RCS measurements are very similar to those of antenna pattern measurements, both will be presented at the same time in Section 19B Antenna Radiation Pattern Measurements.

Robert W Borek

The Physiological Basis for Spacecraft Environmental Limits

This document is intended to provide a description of the physiological effects that determine the environmental limits required in spacecraft. The existing limits for operational environments are described in terms of acceptable physiological changes. Tolerance limits are discussed for exposures to environmental factors during unusual or contingency situations. Where environmental limits may be required but do not presently exist or where additional research is required to refine existing limits, these research needs are specified.

J M Waligora

Experimental Effervescence and Freezing Point Depression Measurements of Nitrogen in Liquid Methane-Ethane Mixtures

NASA is designing an unmanned submarine to explore the depths of the hydrocarbon-rich seas on Saturn’s moon Titan. Data from Cassini indicates that the Titan north polar environment sustains stable seas of variable concentrations of ethane, methane, and nitrogen, with a surface temperature near 93 K. The submarine must operate autonomously, study atmosphere/sea exchange, interact with the seabed, hover at the surface or any depth within the sea, and be capable of tolerating variable hydrocarbon compositions. Currently, the main thermal design concern is the effect of effervescence on submarine operation, which affects the ballast system, science instruments, and propellers. Twelve effervescence measurements on various liquid methane-ethane compositions with dissolved gaseous nitrogen are thus presented from 1.5 bar to 4.5 bar at temperatures from 92 K to 96 K to simulate the conditions of the seas. After conducting effervescence measurements, two freezing point depression measurements were conducted. The freezing liquid line was depressed more than 15 K below the triple point temperatures of pure ethane (90.4 K) and pure methane (90.7 K). Experimental effervescence measurements will be used to compare directly with effervescence modeling to determine if changes are required in the design of the thermal management system as well as the propellers.

Freezing Point Depression

Glenn Research Center Propulsion Systems Laboratory 2026 Customer Guide

This guide describes the Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) at the NASA Glenn Research Center. It was written to help customers understand the various components involved in conducting a test program within the PSL. The PSL complex supports two large-engine test cells that simulate altitude flight conditions for a wide range of research and experimental tests. These test cells operate at altitudes up to 90,000 ft and speeds from subsonic to above supersonic. Test points such as pressure, temperature, and Mach number can be set at the engine or test article inlet based on customer requirements. The facility’s support systems include the heated and cooled combustion air systems; altitude exhaust system; hydraulic system; nitrogen, oxygen, and hydrogen systems; thrust measurement system, which includes the facility’s single- and multi-axis thrust stands; inlet system; and electrical systems. In addition to providing a detailed description of PSL systems and capabilities, this guide discusses the facility’s history and past tests and addresses facility safety procedures, pretest requirements, and test operation standards.

Engine Icing Test Facility

Utility Experience with Inverter Based Resource Impacts on Transmission Protection

High penetration of inverter-based resources (IBR) can adversely affect the transmission protection schemes in the area. With the proliferation of IBRs, utilities are finding out that conventional protection schemes are not adequately equipped to protect the electric systems because the existing system has been designed based on the fault current response of conventional rotating-machine-based generators. In several cases, the available literature does not provide any clear solution for the issues when the protection scheme does not operate properly near IBRs. This report identifies various protection challenges due to IBRs that industry is facing, from the utility perspective. It includes a broad review of all challenges that system protection has experienced so far with high penetration of IBRs. Key issues have been identified based on a survey of different utility protection engineers. Finally, fault event recordings are shown to demonstrate some actual cases of mis-operations of relays near IBRs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Optimization of the FRIB beam dump: a hybrid genetic algorithm and reinforcement learning approach

The operational envelope of high-power-density systems, such as particle accelerators and advanced nuclear energy systems, is critically constrained by the need to manage extreme thermal loads. To address this, we present a novel hybrid optimization framework combining a genetic algorithm (GA) with a soft actor-critic (SAC) deep reinforcement learning agent. This framework was applied to a practical high-heat-flux problem: redesigning the beam dump at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB) for a power upgrade from 20 kW to 50 kW. The resulting design, validated by three-dimensional conjugate heat transfer simulations, suppresses hazardous hot spots and yields a markedly more uniform temperature distribution. This provides a robust operating margin, increasing the average power-handling capability by 72% relative to the current design, demonstrating the framework’s potential to solve complex thermal management challenges in both accelerator technology and advanced nuclear systems.

Accelerator

Superdiffusion resilience in Heisenberg chains with two-dimensional interactions on a quantum processor

Superdiffusive spin transport in the one-dimensional (1D) Heisenberg model is a key theoretical discovery in nonequilibrium quantum many-body physics. Although extensively studied in 1D systems, the breakdown and sustenance of superdiffusion in two-dimensional (2D) lattices with integrability-breaking terms, as found in real materials, remains an open question. To address this, we develop a toy model that extends the 1D Heisenberg model with a representative set of 2D interaction types and tunable strengths. Our model exhibits varying degrees of superdiffusion breakdown depending on the interaction type, spanning ballistic to diffusive regimes. We establish and justify a hierarchy of 2D interactions based on their resilience against superdiffusion breakdown: Heisenberg >𝑋⁢𝑋 > Ising. This precise control over the superdiffusive behavior also enables rigorous benchmarking of quantum hardware, and our simulations on IBM's Heron devices confirm the hardware's ability to accurately capture these many-body nonequilibrium phenomena. Overall, our results are relevant not only to simulating superdiffusion in real materials, such as the 1D Heisenberg compound KCuF3, which contains modest nonintegrable 2D terms, but also to extending superdiffusive behavior to larger 2D qubit lattices and other 2D materials.

Alagarsamy Manikandan, Keerthi Kumaran [ORNL]

Heliostat sizing methodology for concentrating solar thermal industrial process heat projects

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for applications of solar heating for industrial processes at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550°C. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model to supplement the previously developed cost models, which we update to reflect current pricing trends. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWh th . Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the LCOH, producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 7-20 m 2 ; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats being deployed at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Queued Up: 2026 Edition, Characteristics of Power Plants Seeking Transmission Interconnection As of the End of 2025 [Slides]

Electric transmission system operators (ISOs, RTOs, or utilities) require proposed power plants seeking to connect to the transmission grid to undergo a series of impact studies before they can be built. This process establishes what new transmission equipment or upgrades may be needed before a project can connect to the system and assigns the costs of that equipment. The lists of projects in this process are known as “interconnection queues”. In collaboration with https://www.interconnection.fyi. Berkeley Lab compiled, aggregated, and cleaned interconnection queue data from >50 transmission grid operators (7 ISO/RTOs and 50 non-ISO balancing areas), which collectively represent ~98% of currently installed U.S. electric generating capacity.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Thermal Inspection for the Assessment of Adhesively Bonded Metal Adherents

Certification of adhesively bonded structures is currently a challenge for aircraft manufacturers. The ability to certify bonds in primary structure can reduce dependence on fasteners and this will enable more efficient manufacturing. For example, drilling holes and installing fasteners in bonded joints can be a potentially significant bottleneck in airframe manufacturing. In addition, fasteners increase the airframe weight and can add stress concentration areas. Reducing fastener count can accelerate manufacturing and improve aircraft performance. NASA is currently investigating nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques to assess bond integrity. For example, bond thickness influences bond strength and therefore NDE techniques are being investigated to determine bond thickness. For bonded metal structures, there is a large difference in the thermal diffusivity between the 7075 aluminum alloy metal adherends and aircraft grade adhesive. Multi-layered thermal models show a large variation in the thermal response for bondline adhesive thicknesses that vary from 100 to 300 microns for adherend thicknesses of 0.163 cm. Experimental through-transmission thermal measurements reveal promise to quantitatively characterize the bondline thickness. Results were validated with X-ray computed tomography and optical microscopy measurements, and influence of porosity on the thermal model and measurements are investigated.

bondline thickness

Effect of magnetic fields on Urca rates in neutron star mergers

Isospin-equilibrating weak processes, called “Urca” processes, are of fundamental importance in astrophysical environments like (proto-)neutron stars, neutron star mergers, and supernovae. In these environments, matter can reach high temperatures of tens of MeVs and be subject to large magnetic fields. We thus investigate Urca rates at different temperatures and field strengths by performing the full temperature and magnetic-fielddependent rate integrals for different equations of state. We find that the magnetic fields play an important role at temperatures of a few MeV, especially close to or below the direct Urca threshold, which is softened by the magnetic field. At higher temperatures, the effect of the magnetic fields can be overshadowed by the thermal effects. Finally, we observe that the magnetic field influences the neutron decay rates more strongly than the electron-capture rates, leading to a shift in the flavor equilibrium.

electroweak interactions in nuclear physics

Thermal Inspection for the Assessment of Adhesively Bonded Metal Adherends

Certification of adhesively bonded structures is currently a challenge for aircraft manufacturers. The ability to certify bonds in primary structure can reduce dependence on fasteners and this will enable more efficient manufacturing. For example, drilling holes and installing fasteners in bonded joints can be a potentially significant bottleneck in airframe manufacturing. In addition, fasteners increase the airframe weight and can add stress concentration areas. Reducing fastener count can accelerate manufacturing and improve aircraft performance. NASA is currently investigating nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques to assess bond integrity. For example, bond thickness influences bond strength and therefore NDE techniques are being investigated to determine bond thickness. For bonded metal structures, there is a large difference in the thermal diffusivity between the 7075 aluminum alloy metal adherends and aircraft grade adhesive. Multi-layered thermal models show a large variation in the thermal response for bondline adhesive thicknesses that vary from 100 to 300 microns for adherend thicknesses of 0.163 cm. Experimental through-transmission thermal measurements reveal promise to quantitatively characterize the bondline thickness. Results were validated with X-ray computed tomography and optical microscopy measurements, and influence of porosity on the thermal model and measurements are investigated.

X-ray computed tomography

Advanced LiFSI-LiPF6 Electrolyte for Wide-Temperature and Thermally Stable Lithium-Ion Batteries

A new optimized LiFSI–LiPF6 dual-salt controlled-solvation electrolyte (E-DS) is demonstrated to enable practical graphite||LiNi0.8Mn0.1Co0.1O2 cells (˜4.0 mAh cm?²) to achieve exceptional performance and safety under extreme conditions. By optimizing anion coordination with the smaller, more dissociating FSI? anion, the E-DS forms ultrathin, dense, and inorganic-rich electrode/electrolyte interphases that dramatically suppress solvent decomposition, transition-metal dissolution, and surface reconstruction compared to the conventional LiPF6/carbonate electrolyte. Consequently, E-DS cells deliver >78% capacity retention after 300 cycles at 60 °C, retain fast discharging capacity at 30 °C, and operate effectively at -20 °C. Most strikingly, fully charged full cells with E-DS, even under overcharging to 4.8 V, show a lower heat evolution in stable formulations — transforming a traditionally unstable high-voltage/high-temperature configuration into an intrinsically safe state. This work establishes a new benchmark for carbonate-containing electrolytes, simultaneously achieving high energy density, fast-discharging capability, wide-temperature operation (-20 to 60 °C), and outstanding thermal safety in nickel-rich lithium-ion batteries.

electrode/electrolyte interphase

Final Report Document: Microgravity Medical Eyewash B

Senior Capstone Design Team 15 has been commissioned by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to redesign the current microgravity eye wash station. The current design exhibits four primary limitations: single-use operation, excessive mass and volume, operational complexity requiring coordination with external systems, and dependence on frequent Earth resupply missions. Our updated eyewash design will be deployed on long-range space missions that could last multiple years. Based on these and other requirements from our customer, we have developed our updated eyewash design. Our compact, single-eye system uses capillary-driven flow and a free-floating water ball. This design allows us to eliminate pumps and bulky tubing, decreasing the mass and volume of the overall system. The containment eyecup is held to the astronaut's face with a strap, and a silicone seal prevents leakage while improving user comfort. Contaminated water is contained within a disposal bag containing wicking material to pull it back out of the eyecup after washing the eye. This system is reusable, efficient, and easy to activate quickly. We evaluated our design through calculations, microfluidic testing, and user try-on testing to verify our requirements. Our work demonstrated that steady-state flow was capable with our capillary framework, achieving 1.31 L/min. The prototype construction confirmed mass and volume reductions, and try-on-testing evaluated the ability to put on the system quickly. Almost all major design requirements were achieved, and water loss could be validated by testing in microgravity. Our design went through a number of iterations to reach the final solution presented in this report. These changes were driven by our testing and collaboration from each member of the team. Updated models optimized tube placement and geometry of the eyecup to better direct flow as it pools across the eye. Changes to our tubing bends improved capillary efficiency and increased the flow rate we were capable of achieving. And improved bracket placements adjusted the fit, comfort, and seal of the eyecup to the astronaut's face. Our capillary-based eyewash system is technically feasible and has been theoretically validated to operate effectively in microgravity conditions. Testing and analysis indicate that it can meet or exceed the required performance metrics, including flow rate and safety constraints. Overall, the design represents a viable alternative to current ISS-dependent eyewash systems for future space missions.

Jeffrey Allen