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DOE OSTI2023

Towards an improved representation of carbonaceous aerosols over the Indian monsoon region in a regional climate model: RegCM

Mitigation of carbonaceous aerosol emissions is expected to provide climate and health co-benefits. The accurate representation of carbonaceous aerosols in climate models is critical for reducing uncertainties in their climate feedback. In this regard, emission fluxes and aerosol life cycle processes are the two primary sources of uncertainties. Here, we demonstrate that the incorporation of a dynamic ageing scheme and emission estimates that are updated for the local sources improves the representation of carbonaceous aerosols over the Indian monsoon region in a regional climate model, RegCM, compared with its default configuration. The respective mean black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) surface concentrations in 2010 are estimated to be 4.25 and 10.35 µg m -3 over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) in the augmented model. The BC column burden over the polluted IGP is found to be 2.47 mg m -2 , 69.95 % higher than in the default model configuration and much closer to available observations. The anthropogenic aerosol optical depth (AOD) increases by more than 19 % over the IGP due to the model enhancement, also leading to a better agreement with observed AOD. The respective top-of-the-atmosphere, surface, and atmospheric anthropogenic aerosol short-wave radiative forcing are estimated at -0.3, -9.3, and 9.0 W m -2 over the IGP and -0.89, -5.33, and 4.44 W m -2 over Peninsular India (PI). Our results suggest that the combined effect of two modifications leads to maximum improvements in the model performance in regions where emissions play a dominant role.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using feature importance as an exploratory data analysis tool on Earth system models

Abstract. Machine learning (ML) models are commonly used to generate predictions, but these models can also support the discovery of new science. Generating accurate predictions necessitates that a model captures the structure of the underlying data. If the structure is properly extracted, ML could be a useful exploratory and evidential tool. In this paper, we present a case study that demonstrates the use of ML for exploratory data analysis (EDA) in the climate space. We apply the ML explainability method of spatiotemporal zeroed feature importance (stZFI) to understand how climate-variable associations evolve over space and time. Our analyses focus on data from ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs) which provide data on different climate states and conditions. We elect to work with ESM ensembles since they allow us to compare feature importance across alternative scenarios not available with observed data. The ensembles also account for natural variability so that we can distinguish between signal and noise due to natural climate variability when computing feature importance. The use of perturbed initial condition ensembles introduces variability mimicking the natural variability in the atmosphere; thus the signals emerging using feature importance (FI) can be evaluated against the natural variability in the climate system. For our analyses, we consider the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo, which was a large stratospheric aerosol injection. We explore the climate pathway associated with the eruption from aerosols to radiation to temperature at both the near-surface and stratospheric levels. In addition to applying the method to data generated from two different ESMs, we apply stZFI to reanalysis data to compare the associations identified by stZFI. We show how stZFI tracks the importance of aerosol optical depth over time on forecasting temperatures. This case study illustrates usefulness of an ML tool (stZFI) for EDA on a well-studied climate exemplar.

Ries, Daniel (ORCID:0000000250294647)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Panel Session 4 and 15: Japan Fukushima Daiichi D and D Update and Technological Challenges at Japan Fukushima Daiichi D and D and Update on Nuclear Overview and Development in Japan - Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Sessions 4 and 15 represent a two-part panel series that discusses progress and challenges associated with cleanup at Fukushima. Severe limitations on availability of original panelists from Japan due to strict restrictions put in place to alleviate the spread of coronavirus necessitated changes to both panels. The result was a significantly modified panel for Session 04 (shown above) and the elimination of all panelists for Session 15. The 4 and 15 Panel Sessions provide an overview of activities related to both the progress and challenges of cleanup and decommissioning of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (NPS) in Japan. Five panelists discussed perspectives of the cleanup following a Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) video showing the progress on site since the devastating Great East Earthquake and tsunami that caused the explosions at three of the six reactors on the site. Three of the five panelists discussed on-going work being performed for the effort, while the other two provided expert perspectives of on strategic efforts at the site. The panel was attended by over 80 technologists and policy makers spanning the globe and was opened by Dr. Monica Regalbuto of Idaho National Laboratory and a short video provided by TEPCO. The video described changes at the site that spanned the cleanup efforts from stabilizing water intrusion into the contaminated reactor buildings to construction of new administrative facilities. The video explained the processes underway to retrieve spent fuel rods and challenges in retrieval of the compromised fuel debris. The video highlighted working condition improvements that included establishment of rest housing and a small convenience store on the site, and the rollback of protective equipment around the site due to decreases contamination. Panelists with presentations: Revision of 'the Mid-and-Long-Term Road-map towards the Decommissioning of TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station' (Paul Dickman); Sharing UK experience at Fukushima Daiichi (Adrian Simper); SRNL Japan (Andrew Fellinger); ABLE's Initiative to Dismantle the Exhaust Stack (Daniel Walter); JAEA R and D in Fukushima (Tokio Fukahori); TEPCO - Overview and Update of the Fukushima Decommissioning Process (Monica Regalbuto); Toshiba's Involvement in the Decommissioning of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (Yasuhiro Yuguchi); Remote Dismantling of the Exhaust Stack At Fukushima Dai-ichi NPS (Takashi Okutsu)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Local models of two-temperature accretion disc coronae – II. Ion thermal conduction and the absence of disc evaporation

We use local stratified shearing-box simulations with magnetic field-aligned thermal conduction to study an idealized model of the coupling between a cold, radiatively efficient accretion disc, and an overlying, hot, two-temperature corona. Evaporation of a cold disc by conduction from the hot corona has been proposed as a means of mediating the soft-to-hard state transitions observed in X-ray binary systems. We model the coronal plasma in our local disc patch as an MHD fluid subject to both free-streaming ion conduction and a parametrized cooling function that captures the collisional transfer of energy from hot ions to colder, rapidly cooling leptons. In all of our models, independent of the initial net vertical magnetic flux (NF) threading the disc, we find no evidence of disc evaporation. The ion heat flux into the disc is radiated away before conduction can heat the disc’s surface layers. When an initial NF is present, steady-state temperature, density, and outflow velocities in our model coronae are unaffected by conduction. Instead of facilitating disc evaporation, thermal conduction is more likely to feed the disc with plasma condensing out of the corona, particularly in flows without NF. Our work indicates that uncertainties in the amount of NF threading the disc hold far greater influence over whether or not the disc will evaporate into a radiatively inefficient accretion flow compared to thermal conduction. We speculate that a change in net flux mediates disc truncation/evaporation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Intermodel Spread in the Pattern Effect and Its Contribution to Climate Sensitivity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

Radiative feedbacks depend on the spatial patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and thus can change over time as SST patterns evolve—the so-called pattern effect. In this study, we investigate intermodel differences in the magnitude of the pattern effect and how these differences contribute to the spread in effective equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) within CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. Effective ECS in CMIP5 estimated from 150-yr-long abrupt4×CO2 simulations is on average 10% higher than that estimated from the early portion (first 50 years) of those simulations, which serves as an analog for historical warming; this difference is reduced to 7% on average in CMIP6. The (negative) net radiative feedback weakens over the course of the abrupt4×CO2 simulations in the vast majority of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, but this weakening is less dramatic on average in CMIP6. For both ensembles, the total variance in the effective ECS is found to be dominated by the spread in radiative response on fast time scales, rather than the spread in feedback changes. Using Green’s functions derived from two AGCMs shows that the spread in feedbacks on fast time scales may be primarily due to differences in atmospheric model physics, whereas the spread in feedback evolution is primarily governed by differences in SST patterns. Intermodel spread in feedback evolution is well explained by differences in the relative warming in the West Pacific warm-pool regions for the CMIP5 models, but this relation fails to explain differences across the CMIP6 models, suggesting that a stronger sensitivity of extratropical clouds to surface warming may also contribute to feedback changes in CMIP6.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Mesoscale Organization in Cumulus-Coupled Stratocumulus

Marine cloud systems cover a substantial portion of the world’s oceans. Most of these clouds form relatively close to the ocean surface, typically within one to two kilometers, a region referred to by meteorologists as the marine boundary layer. They are composed predominantly of liquid water, although ice particles can occur in mid- and high-latitude marine clouds during winter. In satellite imagery, these clouds appear bright against the darker ocean surface below, reflecting a large fraction of incoming sunlight back into space that would otherwise warm the ocean. Because marine boundary layer clouds cover such an extensive area of the ocean, they exert a significant influence on Earth’s overall transfer of solar energy absorbed by the surface and thermal energy emitted to space, a balance known as the planetary radiation budget. Marine boundary layer clouds are typically thin, and their formation and dissipation depend on a delicate balance between processes acting at the ocean surface below and the warm, dry air above. They are notoriously difficult to simulate accurately in weather forecast models, which often produce too few marine low clouds in midlatitudes and clouds in tropical regions that are excessively bright, meaning they reflect too much solar radiation. The marine boundary layer is frequently characterized by widespread overcast cloud cover that often transitions from a continuous, single-layer deck to more broken cloud fields toward the tropics. These transitions typically proceed through an intermediate stage in which shallow, broken clouds form beneath the overlying stratiform cloud deck. Once broken clouds develop below the overcast, they frequently self-organize into cloud clusters known as marine boundary layer convective complexes (MBLCCs), although the mechanisms governing the formation and organization of MBLCCs remain poorly understood. Accurately representing these transitions in long-range weather forecast models is essential because they influence the properties of air masses advected over the continental United States and Europe, and they become increasingly important for forecasts on seasonal and longer timescales. We employed two complementary approaches to investigate the processes controlling MBLCCs and their impact on marine cloud cover. Long-term observations from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) Observatory provided a unique dataset that allowed us to characterize fundamental properties of MBLCCs, including their typical size and frequency of occurrence. These observations were combined with high-resolution numerical simulations performed on supercomputers to examine the evolution of MBLCCs during cold-air outbreaks over the ENA region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Feedback on Forty-year Long Clean-up Operations of a Contaminated Soil for Environmental Purpose - 20026

One of the CEA facilities in France is the place of miscellaneous mapping and clean-up operations since the 1980's. The final purpose of the conducted work deals with the environmental remediation of the building. In France, the absence of a regulatory framework for the management of sites polluted by radioactive substances, especially as the lack of release thresholds, has led to develop different approaches of soil radiological characterization. The geostatistical approach is part of them. Preliminary investigations are an unavoidable step prior to clearance and remediation. First, historical analysis enables to define site perimeters to investigate as well as to precisely locate expected contaminated parts. For radioactive pollutants, the media (water, soil, air) and transfer routes participate in the definition of the investigation perimeter and thus also need to be identified through a geological study. At the same time, functional analysis leads to choose the best measurement means which could provide useful information when combined with visual inspection. An equipment well adapted to easy-to-measure radionuclides as gamma emitters, such as gamma probe or on-site gamma spectrometry, is usually selected as a non-destructive assay. Coupled with spatial positions, processed on-site radiological data can be mapped. Data processing consists in mapping and kriging before a geostatistical analysis in order to identify the zones of interest to be targeted. Selected zones are not only linked to high level count rates but also to low level ones so that a pollution-free reference is known in the area. This data processing also enables to categorize waste types according to their origin and contamination levels. An expected volume of different waste then follows as well as the waste characterization equipments. In-depth investigations, e.g. core drillings and samplings, naturally ensue to aim at remediation optimization through the assessment of environmental impact. After clean-up operations, non-destructive assays as well as destructive samplings enable to check the effective clearance. Following this methodology in the present remediation work, results of the first non-destructive assay campaign highlighted a long-lived transuranic radionuclides contamination in the concrete flagstone. Successive non-destructive assays were then performed in the defined zones of interest. Count rates measured with a surface probe were first mapped. The best localization of destructive assays, i.e. core drillings at a 1 meter depth, came from this surface mapping followed by a geostatistical analysis. The concrete flagstone was totally removed. Then, the depth of soil to remove under the flagstone was optimized from the results of radiological activities measured in core drillings samples. A new surface mapping was then drawn after this partial soil excavation. The sand and demolition rubble samples, homogeneously constituted from the flagstone fragments, were analyzed by gamma spectrometry. Meanwhile, waste drums and other containers were also measured by gamma spectrometry and passive neutron measurement devices. All these results have brought miscellaneous pieces of information. In this context, major issues appear in terms of physical constraints such as the premises tininess as well as of soil sampling techniques and in terms of measurement performances assessment and the representativeness of homogeneous samples. The choice of radiological soil and waste characterization devices is described in the light of enhanced performances by keeping in mind radiation protection requirements and a willing to always optimize waste categories (very low level waste) and volume. The improvement of the characterization methods appears through this forty-year long work while sharing the feedback of encountered difficulties. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effective climate sensitivity distributions from a 1D model of global ocean and land temperature trends, 1970–2021

Abstract Current theoretically based Earth system models (ESMs) produce Effective Climate Sensitivities (EffCS) that range over a factor of three, with 80% of those models producing stronger global warming trends for 1970–2021 than do observations. To make a more observationally based estimate of EffCS, a 1D time-dependent forcing-feedback model of temperature departures from energy equilibrium is used to match measured ranges of global-average surface and sub-surface land and ocean temperature trends during 1970–2021. In response to two different radiative forcing scenarios, a full range of three model free parameters are evaluated to produce fits to a range of observed surface temperature trends (± 2σ) from four different land datasets and three ocean datasets, as well as deep-ocean temperature trends and borehole-based trend retrievals over land. Land-derived EffCS are larger than over the ocean, and EffCS is lower using the newer Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245, 1.86 °C global EffCS, ± 34% range 1.48–2.15 °C) than the older Representative Concentration Pathway forcing (RCP6, 2.49 °C global average EffCS, ± 34% range 2.04–2.87 °C). The strongest dependence of the EffCS results is on the assumed radiative forcing dataset, underscoring the role of radiative forcing uncertainty in determining the sensitivity of the climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations from observations alone. The results are consistent with previous observation-based studies that concluded EffCS during the observational period is on the low end of the range produced by current ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity of Carbonaceous Aerosol Properties to the Implementation of a Dynamic Aging Parameterization in the Regional Climate Model RegCM

Freshly emitted soot is hydrophobic, but condensation of secondary aerosols and coagulation with other particles modify its hygroscopic optical properties. This conversion is referred to as “aerosol aging.” Many climate models represent this aging process with a fixed aging time scale, whereas in reality, it is a dynamic process that depends on environmental conditions. Here, we implement a dynamic aging parameterization scheme in the regional climate model RegCM4 in place of the fixed aging timescale of 1.15 days (~27.6 h) and examine its impact on the aerosol life cycle over the Indian subcontinent. The conversion from hydrophobic to hydrophilic aerosol is usually lower than 27.6 h over the entire landmass and lower than 10 h over the polluted Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB), with seasonal variability. Due to the implementation of the dynamic aging scheme, the column burden and surface mass concentration of carbonaceous aerosols increase during the drier season (December–February) when washout is negligible. The burden is reduced during the wet season (June–September) due to a more efficient washout except over the IGB, where a reduction in precipitation as a result of radiative feedbacks increases the aerosol concentrations. Over the polluted IGB, surface dimming increases due to the dynamic aging scheme, with the top of the atmosphere forcing remaining mostly unchanged. As a result, atmospheric heating increases by at least 1.2 W/m 2 . Our results suggest that climate models should incorporate dynamic aging for a more realistic representation of aerosol simulations, especially in highly polluted regions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of liquid cloud albedo susceptibility in E3SM using coupled eastern North Atlantic surface and satellite retrievals

The impact of aerosol number concentration on cloud albedo is a persistent source of spread in global climate predictions due to multi-scale, interactive atmospheric processes that remain difficult to quantify. We use 5 years of geostationary satellite and surface retrievals at the US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site in the Azores to evaluate the representation of liquid cloud albedo susceptibility for overcast cloud scenes in the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) and provide possible reasons for model–observation discrepancies. The overall distribution of surface 0.2 % CCN concentration values is reasonably simulated, but simulated liquid water path (LWP) is lower than observed and layer mean droplet concentration (N d ) comparisons are highly variable depending on the N d retrieval technique. E3SMv1's cloud albedo is greater than observed for given LWP and N d values due to a lower cloud effective radius than observed. However, the simulated albedo response to N d is suppressed due to a correlation between the solar zenith angle (SZA) and N d created by the seasonal cycle that is not observed. Controlling for this effect by examining the cloud optical depth (COD) shows that E3SMv1's COD response to CCN concentration is greater than observed. For surface-based retrievals, this is only true after controlling for cloud adiabaticity because E3SMv1's adiabaticities are much lower than observed. Assuming a constant adiabaticity in surface retrievals as done in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) retrievals narrows the retrieved ln N d distribution, which increases the cloud albedo sensitivity to ln N d to match the TOA sensitivity. The greater sensitivity of COD to CCN is caused by a greater Twomey effect in which the sensitivity of N d to CCN is greater than observed for TOA-retrieved N d , and once model–observation cloud adiabaticity differences are removed, this is also true for surface-retrieved N d . The LWP response to N d in E3SMv1 is overall negative as observed. Despite reproducing the observed LWP–N d relationship, observed clouds become much more adiabatic as N d increases, while E3SMv1 clouds do not, associated with more heavily precipitating clouds that are partially but not completely caused by deeper clouds and weaker inversions in E3SMv1. These cloud property differences indicate that the negative LWP–N d relationship is likely not caused by the same mechanisms in E3SMv1 and observations. The negative simulated LWP response also fails to mute the excessively strong Twomey effect, highlighting potentially important confounding factor effects that likely render the LWP–N d relationship non-causal. N d retrieval scales and assumptions, particularly related to cloud adiabaticity, contribute to substantial spreads in the model–observation comparisons, though enough consistency exists to suggest that aerosol activation, drizzle, and entrainment processes are critical areas to focus E3SMv1 development for improving the fidelity of aerosol–cloud interactions in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

MLClouds [SWR-24-24]

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is NREL’s flagship solar data resource. With over 20 years of high-resolution surface irradiance data covering most of the western hemisphere, the NSRDB is a crucial public data asset. A fundamental input to accurate surface irradiance in the NSRDB is high quality cloud property data. Cloud properties are used in radiative transfer calculations and are sourced from satellite imagery. Improving the accuracy of cloud property inputs is a tractable method for improving the accuracy of the irradiance data in the NSRDB. For example, in July of 2018, an average location in the Continental United States is missing cloud property data for nearly one quarter of all daylight cloudy timesteps. This project aims to improve the cloud data inputs to the NSRDB by using machine learning techniques to exploit the NSRDB’s massive data resources. More accurate cloud property input data will yield more accurate surface irradiance data in the NSRDB, providing direct benefit to researchers at NREL and to public data users everywhere.

Buster, Grant↗

DOE OSTI2023

The characteristics of atmospheric boundary layer height over the Arctic Ocean during MOSAiC

The important roles that the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) plays in the central Arctic climate system have been recognized, but the atmospheric boundary layer height (ABLH), defined as the layer of continuous turbulence adjacent to the surface, has rarely been investigated. Using a year-round radiosonde dataset during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, we improve a Richardson-number-based algorithm that takes cloud effects into consideration and subsequently analyze the characteristics and variability of the ABLH over the Arctic Ocean. The results reveal that the annual cycle is clearly characterized by a distinct peak in May and two respective minima in January and July. This annual variation in the ABLH is primarily controlled by the evolution of the ABL thermal structure. Temperature inversions in the winter and summer are intensified by seasonal radiative cooling and warm-air advection with the surface temperature constrained by melting, respectively, leading to the low ABLH at these times. Meteorological and turbulence variables also play a significant role in ABLH variation, including the near-surface potential temperature gradient, friction velocity, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) dissipation rate. In addition, the MOSAiC ABLH is more suppressed than the ABLH during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment in the summer, which indicates that there is large variability in the Arctic ABL structure during the summer melting season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Passivated Interfaces and Surface Recombination Velocities in Halide Perovskites

Surfaces and charge-extracting contacts remain major sources of non-radiative recombination loss; limiting the performance of perovskite PV compared to theoretical limits. We investigate mixed-cation mixed-halide perovskites and demonstrate that, with chemical surface passivation, they can achieve >4 μs minority carrier lifetimes, and >20% external PL quantum yields (PLQY), and nearly single-exponential decay kinetics. This high PLQY observed corresponds to ~97% of the Shockley-Queisser theoretical quasi-fermi level splitting, a first for MA-free mixed-cation mixed-halide compositions. The high PLQY and long PL lifetimes allow us to measure average surface recombination velocities (SRV) <10cm/s, with a champion low of ~1cm/s (a conservative estimate). We show how such improvements in SRV should lead to an absolute improvement in PCE of >4% even with the best of contact alignments. We investigate different MA-free high bandgap compositions, including bandgaps relevant for tandem applications (1.7-1.8eV), and demonstrate performance improvements across all these compositions with our surface passivation strategy. Lastly, using a combination of surface characterization techniques, we show Lewis base interactions of the passivating agent with the perovskite surfaces.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Passivated Interfaces and Surface Recombination Velocities in Halide Perovskites

passivation↗

DOE OSTI2020

Source attribution of Arctic black carbon and sulfate aerosols and associated Arctic surface warming during 1980–2018

Observations show that the concentrations of Arctic sulfate and black carbon (BC) aerosols have declined since the early 1980s. Previous studies have reported that reducing sulfate aerosols potentially contributed to the recent rapid Arctic warming. In this study, a global aerosol–climate model (Community Atmosphere Model, version 5) equipped with Explicit Aerosol Source Tagging (CAM5-EAST) is applied to quantify the source apportionment of aerosols in the Arctic from 16 source regions and the role of aerosol variations in affecting changes in the Arctic surface temperature from 1980 to 2018. The CAM5-EAST simulated surface concentrations of sulfate and BC in the Arctic had a decrease of 43% and 23%, respectively, in 2014–2018 relative to 1980–1984 mainly due to the reduction of emissions from Europe, Russia and local Arctic sources. Increases in emissions from South and East Asia led to positive trends in Arctic sulfate and BC in the upper troposphere. All aerosol radiative impacts are considered including aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions, as well as black carbon deposition on snow- and ice-covered surfaces. Within the Arctic, sulfate reductions caused a top-of-atmosphere (TOA) warming of 0.11 and 0.25 W m -2 through aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions, respectively. While the changes in Arctic atmospheric BC has little impact on local radiative forcing, the decrease in BC in snow and ice led to a net cooling of 0.05 W m -2 . By applying climate sensitivity factors for different latitudinal bands, global changes in sulfate and BC during 2014–2018 (with respect to 1980–1984) exerted a +0.088 and 0.057 K Arctic surface warming, respectively, through aerosol–radiation interactions. Through aerosol–cloud interactions, the sulfate reduction caused an Arctic warming of +0.193 K between the two time periods. The weakened BC effect on snow–ice albedo led to an Arctic surface cooling of -0.041 K. The changes in atmospheric sulfate and BC outside the Arctic produced a total Arctic warming of +0.25 K, the majority of which is due to the midlatitude changes in radiative forcing. Our results suggest that changes in aerosols over the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere have a larger impact on Arctic temperature than other regions through enhanced poleward heat transport. The combined total effects of sulfate and BC produced an Arctic surface warming of +0.297 K, explaining approximately 20% of the observed Arctic warming since the early 1980s.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comprehensive study of radon progeny attachment to surfaces

Low energy, low rate experiments, such as searches for neutrinoless double β decay and dark matter, require unprecedentedly low levels of background in order to deliver their full science potential. 210 Po driven, neutron induced background, caused by nuclear (α, n) reactions on low-Z materials, direct background contributions of the 210 Po α radiation and desorption of the 210 Pb progeny 210 Bi from surfaces into the detector medium are of particular of concern. These backgrounds depend on details of the components’ exposure to radon-loaded laboratory air and, thus, their handling history. The attachment rates of airborne radon progeny to surfaces, needed for the estimation of these background rates, are poorly understood. This article reports the results of a campaign comprising of more than 1200 attachment measurements, performed for nine different materials. Correlations of the attachment with environmental parameters such as air exchange rate, electrical surface potential, temperature, atmospheric pressure, and relative humidity have been studied and found to be significant only in case of the first two. Attachment modeling, using the Jacobi model, is compared to data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Daily grass reference evapotranspiration with Meteosat Second Generation shortwave radiation and reference ET products

Here we assess the accuracy of estimating daily grass reference evapotranspiration (PM-ET o ) using daily shortwave radiation (R s ) and reference evapotranspiration (ET REF ) products provided by the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) geostationary satellite delivered by the Satellite Applications Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF) framework. The accuracy of using reanalysis ERA5 shortwave radiation data (R s ERA5 ) provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is also evaluated. The assessments were performed using observed weather variables at 37 weather stations distributed across continental Portugal, where climate conditions range from semi-arid to humid, and 12 weather stations located in Azores islands, characterized by humid, windy and often cloudy conditions. This study's use of data from a variety of climate conditions contributed to a unique and innovative assessment of the usability of LSA-SAF and ERA5 products for ET o estimation. The first assessment focused on comparing LSA-SAF estimates of R s (R s LSA-SAF ) against ground stations (R s ground ). The results showed a good matching between the two R s data sets for continental Portugal but a tendency for R s LSA-SAF to under-estimate R s ground in the cloudy islands of Azores. ET o values computed using R s LSA-SAF data and observed temperature, humidity and wind speed (ET o LSA-SAF ) were then compared with PM-ET o estimates with ground-based data, which were used as benchmark; input data of temperature and humidity needed for PM-ET o were quality checked for surface aridity effects. It was observed that ET o LSA-SAF is strongly correlated with PM-ET o (R 2 > 0.97) for most locations in continental Portugal, with regression coefficient of a linear regression forced to the origin ranging between 0.95 and 1.05, mean root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.13 mm d –1 , and Nash and Sutcliff efficiency of modeling (EF) above 0.95. For most Azores locations, ET o LSA-SAF over-estimated PM-ET o . This is likely a consequence of the high spatio-temporal heterogeneity of weather conditions that occur in these oceanic islands together with the different footprints of satellite (averaged over the pixel) and station observations. Reanalysis ERA5 shortwave radiation data presented similar behavior to the LSA-SAF products, however with slightly lower accuracy. The daily LSA-SAF ET REF product (ET REF LSA-SAF ) was assessed and results have shown a good accuracy of this product, with acceptable RMSE and high EF values, for continental Portugal but a low accuracy for the Azores islands. A simplified bias correction approach was shown to improve both ET o derived from the LSA-SAF products, namely for Azores stations, which seem to be representative of smaller areas. The use of the FAO-PM temperature approach (PMT) was also assessed using the R s LSA-SAF and R s ERA5 data, which showed a superiority of the LSA-SAF product for ET o estimations (ET o PMT LSA-SAF ). No significant differences (p < 0.05) were observed in terms of the median value of the RMSE when adopting ET o PMT and ET REF LSA-SAF . Differently, results showed that using the R s LSA-SAF in the PMT approach (ET o PMT LSA-SAF ) produces significantly better RMSE results than ET o PMT and ET REF LSA-SAF . Overall, the performed assessment allows concluding that the use of R s LSA-SAF, and to a lesser extent the use of the R s ERA5 , highly improves the accuracy of computation of ET o when R s observations are not available, including when only temperature data are accessible. The use of the ET REF LSA-SAF product is a good alternative when observed weather data are not available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Surface impacts and associated mechanisms of a moisture intrusion into the Arctic observed in mid-April 2020 during MOSAiC

Distinct events of warm and moist air intrusions (WAIs) from mid-latitudes have pronounced impacts on the Arctic climate system. We present a detailed analysis of a record-breaking WAI observed during the MOSAiC expedition in mid-April 2020. By combining Eulerian with Lagrangian frameworks and using simulations across different scales, we investigate aspects of air mass transformations via cloud processes and quantify related surface impacts. The WAI is characterized by two distinct pathways, Siberian and Atlantic. A moist static energy transport across the Arctic Circle above the climatological 90th percentile is found. Observations at research vessel Polarstern show a transition from radiatively clear to cloudy state with significant precipitation and a positive surface energy balance (SEB), i.e., surface warming. WAI air parcels reach Polarstern first near the tropopause, and only 1–2 days later at lower altitudes. In the 5 days prior to the event, latent heat release during cloud formation triggers maximum diabatic heating rates in excess of 20 K d -1 . For some poleward drifting air parcels, this facilitates strong ascent by up to 9 km. Based on model experiments, we explore the role of two key cloud-determining factors. First, we test the role moisture availability by reducing lateral moisture inflow during the WAI by 30%. This does not significantly affect the liquid water path, and therefore the SEB, in the central Arctic. The cause are counteracting mechanisms of cloud formation and precipitation along the trajectory. Second, we test the impact of increasing Cloud Condensation Nuclei concentrations from 10 to 1,000 cm -3 (pristine Arctic to highly polluted), which enhances cloud water content. Resulting stronger longwave cooling at cloud top makes entrainment more efficient and deepens the atmospheric boundary layer. Finally, we show the strongly positive effect of the WAI on the SEB. This is mainly driven by turbulent heat fluxes over the ocean, but radiation over sea ice. The WAI also contributes a large fraction to precipitation in the Arctic, reaching 30% of total precipitation in a 9-day period at the MOSAiC site. However, measured precipitation varies substantially between different platforms. Therefore, estimates of total precipitation are subject to considerable observational uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗