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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Ice-shelf freshwater triggers for the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf melt tipping point in a global ocean–sea-ice model

Abstract. Some ocean modeling studies have identified a potential tipping point from a low to a high basal melt regime beneath the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), Antarctica, with significant implications for subsequent Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. To date, investigation of the climate drivers and impacts of this possible event have been limited because ice-shelf cavities and ice-shelf melting are only now starting to be included in global climate models. Using a global ocean–sea-ice configuration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) that represents both ocean circulations and melting within ice-shelf cavities, we explore freshwater triggers (iceberg melt and ice-shelf basal melt) of a transition to a high-melt regime at FRIS in a low-resolution (30 km in the Southern Ocean) global ocean–sea-ice model. We find that a realistic spatial distribution of iceberg melt fluxes is necessary to prevent the FRIS melt regime change from unrealistically occurring under historical-reanalysis-based atmospheric forcing. Further, improvement of the default parameterization for mesoscale eddy mixing significantly reduces a large regional fresh bias and weak Antarctic Slope Front structure, both of which precondition the model to melt regime change. Using two different stable model configurations, we explore the sensitivity of FRIS melt regime change to regional ice-sheet freshwater fluxes. Through a series of sensitivity experiments prescribing incrementally increasing melt rates from the smaller, neighboring ice shelves in the eastern Weddell Sea, we demonstrate the potential for an ice-shelf melt “domino effect” should the upstream ice shelves experience increased melt rates. The experiments also reveal that modest ice-shelf melt biases in a model, especially at coarse ocean resolution where narrow continental shelf dynamics are not well resolved, can lead to an unrealistic melt regime change at downstream ice shelves. Thus, we find that remote connections between melt fluxes at different ice shelves are sensitive to baseline model conditions. Our results highlight both the potential and the peril of simulating prognostic Antarctic ice-shelf melt rates in a low-resolution global model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validation of the NLR Pumped Storage Hydropower Cost Model

The National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) first released its pumped storage hydropower (PSH) cost model in 2023 as the most detailed bottom-up PSH cost model available to the public. It is available both as a spreadsheet and an interactive web tool, enabling users with a variety of PSH interests to transparently characterize costs of alternative PSH sites and designs. The PSH cost model cannot replace detailed site-level studies and design, but it is important to validate it against other industry PSH cost estimates. The initial model methodology report validated the cost model for a single proposed site, the Eagle Mountain Project in California. This slide deck documents an expanded validation exercise using cost data from six other sites: Goldendale (Washington), Seminoe (Wyoming), Gordon Butte (Montana), Swan Lake (Oregon), White Pine (Oregon), and Lewis Ridge (Kentucky). It compares itemized costs from Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) applications and other reported costs with NLR PSH cost model outputs after customizing inputs for each site. The validation exercise finds that the NLR model's conservative indirect cost assumptions often drive overall cost overestimation, with direct cost comparisons typically agreeing more closely. All cost model estimates are well within an Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE) Class 5 estimation range (-50% to +100%), with five within the AACE Class 4 range (-30% to +50%) and four being within 15%. This result is considered reasonable performance for a parametric model applied at a preliminary design stage.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model Gap Quantification and Evaluation

In the real world, model gaps always exist because models cannot perfectly match the objective physical plants. Model gaps reflect the integrity of models, which is vital for model validation and calibration. This letter proposes a novel approach for model gap quantification and evaluation. First, a comprehensive metric is developed to quantify dynamic model gaps. Next, the model gaps are evaluated from a panoramic view of the probability distribution of the comprehensive metric for multiple scenarios. Finally, we demonstrate the proposed quantification and evaluation approach through synchronous machine models.

Wang, Shaobu↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying microbial roles in environmental iron oxidation via an integrated kinetics, `omics and metabolic modeling study (Final Report)

Iron oxyhydroxides are extremely reactive components of environmental systems, and therefore exert a strong influence on biogeochemical cycles. These oxyhydroxides strongly adsorb many biologically-relevant elements, including organic carbon and phosphate, as well as a wide range of metals including uranium and actinide species. Thus, the formation mechanism of iron oxyhydroxides are key to understanding both nutrient and contaminant cycling. Microorganisms can catalyze iron oxidation and promote the formation of Fe biominerals and thus are increasingly recognized as important players in biogeochemical cycling. However, it is completely unknown how much of environmental iron oxidation is biologically mediated versus abiotic, and various challenges in studying microbial iron oxidation have hindered accurate incorporation into hydrobiogeochemical models. The overarching goal of our work was to quantify and constrain microbial iron oxidation rates and use ‘omics to gain insight into the controls on this process, while developing tools to enable integration of biotic iron oxidation into hydrobiogeochemical models. Our work focused on the Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina, where extensive microbial iron oxidation has been observed. At Tims Branch, part of the Argonne National Laboratory Wetland Hydrobiogeochemistry Science Focus Area (Argonne SFA), where groundwater discharges into a stream, iron-oxidizing microbial mats form and appear to be a major sink of uranium. In the wetlands that surround Tims Branch, there are wide swaths of iron microbial mats and flocs (mobilized mat). We measured biotic and abiotic iron oxidation rates using mats and water sampled from these sites and found that iron oxidation is primarily carried out by chemolithotrophic microorganisms. The resulting rate constants can be incorporated into models. These mats were characterized by metagenomics and metatranscriptomics, which showed that aerobic chemolithotrophs were the dominant iron-oxidizing bacteria (FeOB), and these included Gallionellaceae and Leptothrix, and possibly Rhodoferax, which is known as an Fe-reducer but may also oxidize Fe(II). This demonstrated that diverse FeOB can coexist and suggests that there are a range of niches and therefore drivers of chemolithotrophic iron oxidation. Analysis of reconstructed genomes strongly suggests that a major factor in diversity is carbon source, as genomes contained varied pathways for autotrophy and heterotrophy. We performed an in-depth analysis of Leptothrix ochracea genomes, since this sheath-former is one of the primary mat builders, yet its physiology remained unresolved. A combination of genomics, transcriptomics, and metabolic modeling suggest that L. ochracea grows mixotrophically using a combination of Fe(II) and organics for energy and both inorganic and organic carbon to create biomass. This contrasts with the largely autotrophic Gallionellaceae (Gallionella, Sideroxydans, and Ferriphaselus) also present in the mats and flocs. Remarkably, multiple FeOB, both Leptothrix and Gallionellaceae, showed activity in response to Fe(II) in live mat incubations. We tracked the gene expression of individual MAGs to Fe(II) and found that various autotrophic and heterotrophic FeOB responded to Fe(II), increasing expression of both carbon fixation and organic utilization genes. The results of the integrated field, kinetics, and omics studies give detailed insight into 1) the taxa that oxidize Fe, and 2) how they connect Fe, C, and N cycles. Towards the goal of connecting omics data to hydrobiogeochemical models, we worked with the KBase team to create a template metabolic model for chemolithotrophic iron oxidation. We initially modeled the well-characterized isolate Gallionellaceae Sideroxydans lithotrophicus, and also applied the model to the mixotroph L. ochracea. In all, we have characterized diverse FeOB in a representative wetland system and solved key problems that enable better incorporation of iron-oxidizing microbes into hydrobiogeochemical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Geothermal Heat Pump System Showcase: Short-Term Validation of Borehole Heat Exchanger Performance from Field Data to Numerical Modeling: Preprint

Since 2011, a geothermal heat pump (GHP) system has been operating to provide space heating and cooling for the Solar Radiation and Research Laboratory building at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) in Golden, Colorado. The system consists of 23 vertical boreholes, each extending to a depth of 300 ft (91 m), connected to 11 water-to-air heat pump units and four circulation pumps. Between fiscal years 2023 and 2025, additional power meters and temperature sensors were retrofitted to support detailed system performance assessment and model development. This study presents preliminary monitoring results and the development of an initial numerical model of the borehole heat exchanger field. The model incorporated site-specific geometry, ground thermal properties derived from thermal response tests, and ambient temperatures, and simulated system behavior over a representative operating day in September. Model predictions of outlet temperatures were compared against corresponding field measurements. Results showed that modeling initialized with a simplified linear subsurface temperature gradient presents systematic discrepancies in outlet temperature, whereas incorporating depth-resolved borehole temperature measurements for initialization yields substantially improved agreement with observations. The findings highlight the sensitivity of short-term predictive modeling to the representation of initial subsurface thermal conditions and underscore the value of high-resolution field measurements for model calibration and validation. These preliminary results inform ongoing efforts to extend the modeling framework to longer time horizons and to refine monitoring and modeling strategies that support the design guidance and operational optimization of GHP systems in research and commercial buildings.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recent Improvements in Pronghorn for Advanced Reactor Modeling

Pronghorn is a thermal-hydraulics computational tool developed using the Idaho National Laboratory's Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). It is designed to support Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling, ranging from subchannel and porous media analysis to Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence modeling. As an integral part of the MOOSE-based suite of tools, Pronghorn seamlessly couples with other MOOSE-based applications to simulate a variety of physical phenomena. This article highlights recent significant enhancements to Pronghorn's CFD modeling capabilities and demonstrates their application to advanced nuclear reactor designs. The recent improvements in Pronghorn primarily focus on modifications to its turbulence modeling capabilities, near-wall corrections and numerical schemes. In terms of turbulence modeling, the two-equation $k-\epsilon$ and $k-\omega$ SST models have been implemented and validated with both equilibrium and non-equilibrium wall treatments. Additionally, corrections for wall roughness, and curvature, and wall-channeling in pebble beds have been introduced in the near-wall modeling. These developments enable more accurate simulations of advanced nuclear reactors. Two case studies are presented in this work: a pool-type Molten Chloride Reactor and a salt-cooled Pebble-Bed High Temperature Reactor. In both cases, the previous models in Pronghorn are compared with the new implementations, demonstrating the improved accuracy achieved with the updated models.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cluster Dynamics Modeling Needs for the Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies Program

This milestone report aims to identify and assess the cluster dynamics (CD) modeling requirements within the Department of Energy's Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program and to communicate these needs to the DOE-NE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. The goal is to ensure NEAMS is well-informed about the CD modeling requirements to support AMMT's mission of accelerating the development, qualification, demonstration, and deployment of advanced structural materials and manufacturing for nuclear energy applications. CD modeling is an essential tool for predicting the degradation of structural materials under irradiation, which is a key component of AMMT's accelerated qualification process. The AMMT program focuses on both additively manufactured and wrought structural alloys, such as laser powder-bed fusion 316H austenitic stainless steel, alloy 709, Haynes 244, and alloy 617. These materials require a generalized CD modeling framework to facilitate rapid model development and computational simulation. A flexible, generalized CD software, similar to the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) finite element framework, would enable modeling of various cluster types, including defect clusters, defect-solute clusters, and multicomponent clusters, incorporating thermodynamics and kinetics parameters. Radiation effects, microstructural feature evolution, and multi-dimensional modeling are critical considerations for the CD model. The usability of the CD code should allow for easy modification and coupling with MOOSE-based simulations. Additionally, the software should adhere to Nuclear Quality Assurance-1 standards, include a testing suite for verification and validation, and be version-controlled within a national laboratory-managed Git repository. Benchmark problems are needed to assess code predictions and performance.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validating a Dynamic PWR Safety and Security Model?

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) are assessed for safety and security using separate models that cannot capture how an attacker's decisions and a plant's response unfold together in real time, leaving regulators and operators without a complete picture of true plant vulnerability. Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods treat adversarial events as fixed initiators with predetermined outcomes, and are structurally incapable of representing the time-dependent interplay between physical security events, safety system response, and operator mitigative actions. At Idaho National Laboratory (INL), I contributed to the development and validation of Modeling and Analysis for Safety and Security using the Dynamic EMRALD Framework (MASS-DEF). Where static PRA relies on event-tree logic that cannot evolve mid-scenario, MASS-DEF couples a time-dependent dynamic PRA tool EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams) with attack simulation software, allowing attacker behavior, plant system states, and operator actions to interact across time. My work focused on validating a general Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) model. I traced model logic against PWR plant to identified errors in logic and confirm accuracy. I then built and tested attack scenarios against a general PWR model to verify that the model produced expected outcomes across all logical pathways. I also contributed a section to a related technical paper applying the same EMRALD platform to radiation dose modeling. Results show that MASS-DEF can quantitatively demonstrate that many plants exceed their regulatory security thresholds. This demonstrated margin provides a technically defensible basis for reducing the number of guards without compromising regulatory compliance. Physical security costs represent roughly 10% of annual operating budgets, making such reductions directly meaningful to INL's mission of sustaining existing commercial NPPs. This internship strengthened my understanding of nuclear systems, probabilistic modeling, and technical writing, and has solidified my pursuit of a career at a national laboratory.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparison of structurally diverse simulation models for prediction of epidemic outcomes caused by a long-distance dispersed pathogen

Long-distance dispersal (LDD) pathogens pose substantial challenges for epidemic control due to their ability to generate new infection foci at great distances. While various modeling approaches have been developed to understand and manage such outbreaks, little work has compared how models of different structures behave under shared conditions. Here, in this study, we compare four structurally distinct epidemiological models — EPIMUL, GEMF, PoPS, and Warwick — each adapted to simulate the spread of wheat stripe rust (WSR), a wind-dispersed LDD pathogen, under identical epidemiological parameters and dispersal kernel. Using data from a controlled field experiment, we evaluate the ability of each model to replicate disease prevalence under nine intervention scenarios that vary in timing and culling area. While the models differ substantially in design — ranging from spatial grid-based to network-based and raster-based frameworks — the shared dispersal kernel allowed for close alignment in their predictions. All models accurately captured general epidemic trends, particularly the strong effect of early intervention on disease suppression. We qualitatively compared their behavioral responses across scenarios and also evaluated an ensemble prediction by averaging across model outputs. Our findings highlight how integrating shared epidemiological components into distinct modeling frameworks can improve consistency and accuracy, while reinforcing the importance of early culling in managing LDD pathogen outbreaks.

Dispersal kernel↗
DOE OSTI2024

A spatially-resolved model of neutron-irradiated tungsten coupling stochastic cluster dynamics and finite deformation plasticity

Structural materials used in nuclear reactors face severe degradation in mechanical properties, such as hardening and embrittlement. At the microscopic scale, this occurs due to creation and accumulation of irradiation-induced defects and their interaction with system dislocations. Although techniques exist which can model evolution of irradiation defects, for instance kinetic transport theory-based models, their interaction with mechanical deformation of the bulk material has not been investigated extensively. In this work, we demonstrate a novel spatially-resolved multiscale coupling between microscopic irradiation defect evolution, modeled using Stochastic Cluster Dynamics (SCD) and macroscopic mechanical deformation modeled using a finite-deformation plasticity model. SCD is used to determine the statistically averaged defect cluster spacing, dependent on operating conditions such as irradiation dose and temperature. This acts as an initial condition that governs the critical resolved shear stress of dislocation glide in the macroscopic plasticity model. This framework is used to predict mechanical behavior in post-mortem test of irradiated Tungsten samples, which has found its importance as structural material used in nuclear reactors. The results obtained using the coupled approach are in good agreement with experimental data of uniaxial tension tests. The model is able to capture the effect of temperature and irradiation dose on the material hardening. Two methods are proposed to estimate hardness – using Tabor's Law relating uniaxial yield stress to hardness and from flat-punch simulations. The results are in reasonable agreement with hardness data from micro-indentation experiments of irradiated Tungsten samples. Finally, the model is also able to reveal microstructural details such as spatial variation in defect density and local stress.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generating synthetic signaling networks for in silico modeling studies

Predictive models of signaling pathways have proven to be difficult to develop. Reasons include the uncertainty in the number of species, the complexity in species’ interactions, and the sparseness and uncertainty in experimental data. Traditional approaches to developing mechanistic models rely on collecting experimental data and fitting a single model to that data. This approach works for simple systems but has proven unreliable for complex systems such as biological signaling networks. For example, uncertainty and sparseness of the data often result in overfitted models that have little predictive value beyond recapitulating the experimental data itself. Thus, there is a need to develop new approaches to create predictive mechanistic models of complex systems. However, to determine the effectiveness of any new algorithm, a baseline model is needed to test its performance. To meet this need, we developed a method for generating artificial synthetic networks that are reasonably realistic and thus can be treated as ground truth models. These synthetic models can then be used to generate synthetic data for developing and testing algorithms designed to recover the underlying network topology and associated parameters. Here, we describe a simple approach for generating synthetic signaling networks that can be used for this purpose.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating Tide‐Driven Wetland Soil Redox and Biogeochemical Interactions Into a Land Surface Model

Abstract Redox processes, aqueous and solid‐phase chemistry, and pH dynamics are key drivers of subsurface biogeochemical cycling and methanogenesis in terrestrial and wetland ecosystems but are typically not included in terrestrial carbon cycle models. These omissions may introduce errors when simulating systems where redox interactions and pH fluctuations are important, such as wetlands where saturation of soils can produce anoxic conditions and coastal systems where sulfate inputs from seawater can influence biogeochemistry. Integrating cycling of redox‐sensitive elements could therefore allow models to better represent key elements of carbon cycling and greenhouse gas production. We describe a model framework that couples the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) with PFLOTRAN biogeochemistry, allowing geochemical processes and redox interactions to be integrated with land surface model simulations. We implemented a reaction network including aerobic decomposition, fermentation, sulfate reduction, sulfide oxidation, methanogenesis, and methanotrophy as well as pH dynamics along with iron oxide and iron sulfide mineral precipitation and dissolution. We simulated biogeochemical cycling in tidal wetlands subject to either saltwater or freshwater inputs driven by tidal hydrological dynamics. In simulations with saltwater tidal inputs, sulfate reduction led to accumulation of sulfide, higher dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations, lower dissolved organic carbon concentrations, and lower methane emissions than simulations with freshwater tidal inputs. Model simulations compared well with measured porewater concentrations and surface gas emissions from coastal wetlands in the Northeastern United States. These results demonstrate how simulating geochemical reaction networks can improve land surface model simulations of subsurface biogeochemistry and carbon cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of steady-state analytical wake models implemented in wind farm analysis software

A common set of mathematical wind turbine wake models are implemented in a few, well-adopted computational tools for wind farm wake modelling. Although the referenced mathematical formulations are common, implementation details may lead to differences in results. This study presents a systematic comparison of the implementation of mathematical wake models in open source, Python-based wind turbine wake modelling software, and a set of the models are directly compared. Despite aligning only the mathematical model parameters and retaining the default computational model parameters, good agreement is found across most of the model implementations, and additional agreement is expected upon further parameters alignment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Systematic study of the validity of the eikonal model including uncertainties

Nuclear reactions at intermediate beam energies are often interpreted using the eikonal model. In the analysis of complex reaction probes, where few-body reaction methods are needed, the eikonal method may be used as an efficient way for describing the fragment-target reaction process. In this work, we perform a systematic study to test the validity of the eikonal approximation for nucleon-nucleus reactions. We also quantify uncertainties due to the nucleon optical potential on reaction observables. We inspect the validity of the eikonal model and its semiclassical correction by comparing it to exact solutions (obtained from solving the optical-model equation with a finite-differences method) for a wide range of reactions. We also study the effect of relativistic corrections, both kinematic and dynamic, by effectively incorporating the relativistic effects at intermediate energies. The uncertainties from a Bayesian global optical potential (KDUQ) are propagated to the observables of interest. Our study includes neutron and proton reactions on 27 Al , 40 Ca , 90 Zr , and 208 Pb , for a wide range of energies 𝐸 lab = 0–400 MeV. We calculate neutron-total cross sections (elastic and reactions) as well as proton-absorption cross sections as a function of beam energy, using the eikonal model, the eikonal model with a semiclassical correction, and the exact solution. Here, we also compute angular distributions for the methods above. Our results show that for the proton-absorption cross section, the eikonal model can be used down to around 60 MeV and the semiclassical correction extends its use to 30 MeV. However, the validity of the eikonal model for the neutron-total cross section only goes down to ≈120 MeV, a range extended to ≈ 50 MeV when using the semiclassical correction. We find the semiclassical correction to the eikonal model to be less effective in describing the angular distributions. The 1⁢𝜎 uncertainty intervals on the observables we studied is less than 5% for most of the energies considered, but increases rapidly for higher energies, namely energies outside the range of KDUQ (𝐸 lab > 200MeV).

Cluster models↗
DOE OSTI2024

Topographical Controls on Hillslope-Scale Hydrology Drive Shrub Distributions on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska: Modeling Archive

The dataset is a model output used in a study that examined the role topography plays in determining shrub expansion by applying a coupled transect version of a mechanistic ecosystem model (ecosys) in a tundra hillslope site in the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. The study highlights the importance of mechanistically representing hillslope-scale coupled surface and sub-surface hydrology to accurately predict current plant distributions and future trajectories in Arctic ecosystems. The dataset contain ecosys model outputs used in a study: Article Title - Topographical Controls on Hillslope-Scale Hydrology Drive Shrub Distributions on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. It includes the data files (ten *.csv files) used in creating figures in the publication and three *.pdf files (user guide and two Supplementary Information documents).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Generalized approach to the operationalization of Software Quality Models

Comprehensive measures of quality are a research imperative, yet the development of software quality models is a wicked problem. Definitive solutions do not exist and quality is subjective at its most abstract. Definitional measures of quality are contingent on a domain, and even within a domain, the choice of representative characteristics to decompose quality is subjective. Thus, the operationalization of quality models brings even more challenges. A promising approach to quality modeling is the use of hierarchies to represent characteristics, where lower levels of the hierarchy represent concepts closer to real-world observations. Building upon prior hierarchical modeling approaches, we developed the Platform for Investigative software Quality Understanding and Evaluation (PIQUE). PIQUE surmounts several quality modeling challenges because it allows modelers to instantiate abstract hierarchical models in any domain by leveraging organizational tools tailored to their specific contexts. Here, we introduce PIQUE; exemplify its utility with two practical use cases; address challenges associated with parameterizing a PIQUE model; and describe algorithmic techniques that tackle normalization, aggregation, and interpolation of measurements.

Data aggregation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extracting and Interpreting Electrochemical Impedance Spectra (EIS) from Physics-Based Models of Lithium-Ion Batteries

This paper implements a highly efficient algorithm to extract electrochemical impedance spectra (EIS) from physics-based battery models (e.g., a P2D model). The mathematical approach is different from how EIS is practiced experimentally. Experimentally, the voltage (current) is harmonically perturbed over a wide range of frequencies and the amplitude and phase shift of the corresponding current (voltage) is measured. The experimental approach can be implemented in simulation software, but is computationally expensive. The approach here is to determine locally linear state-space models from the full physical model. The four Jacobian matrices that are the basis of the state-space models can be derived by numerical differentiation of the physical model. The EIS is then extracted from the state-space model using computationally efficient matrix-manipulation techniques. The algorithm can evaluate the full EIS at an instant in time during a transient, independent of whether the battery is in a stationary state. The approach is also able to separate the full-cell impedance to evaluate partial EIS, such as for a battery anode alone. Although such partial EIS is difficult to measure experimentally, the partial EIS provides valuable insights in interpreting the full-cell EIS.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Movement Models to Predict Low‐Altitude Flight of Soaring Birds Using Look‐Ahead Environmental Factors

Advances in fine-scale movement modeling of soaring birds can aid efforts to understand and resolve the impacts of anthropogenic activities on such birds. Soaring birds often rely on underlying terrain and low-altitude updrafts to govern their flights at rotor-swept altitudes (≤ 200 m above ground level), which puts them at risk of collision with wind turbines. We developed a data-driven Markov model at 1-s resolution that predicts the fine-scale flight behavior of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) as a function of ecological covariates at the current location as well as those within an eagle's line of sight. We only considered ecological covariates that are readily available in real-time (ground elevation and wind conditions). Latent factors (age, sex, species, behavioral intent, migratory status) were intentionally left out of the model. We calibrated the model using golden eagle telemetry data collected in two different ecoregions of the United States. Given a starting location, the calibrated model simulates multiple stochastic 3D paths to produce a time-explicit and spatially explicit risk map of turbine collisions. We discovered an empirical relation between the rate of change of heading and the orographic updraft conditions within an eagle's line of sight. Our model performed most effectively when predicting predominantly-soaring flights at rotor-swept altitudes during wind conditions in which turbines are likely to be operational. The calibrated model could be used in concert with automated eagle detection and turbine curtailment technologies. Specifically, once an eagle is detected by those systems, our model could then provide accurate predictions of turbines the eagle is likely to interact with in the near term.

17 WIND ENERGY↗