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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Automatic Time Step Control to Resolve Hydromechanically Driven Fault Reactivation, Spontaneous Nucleation, and Seismic Arrest

Abstract A physical understanding of the progression from flow‐driven (quasi‐static) poromechanical deformation to dynamic fault rupture is critical to the resilient operations of several engineering systems. These processes are bridged by a progression from fault reactivation to the spontaneous nucleation of unstable sliding. Toward addressing this challenge, novel automatic time step size control methods are developed to enable accurate and efficient simulation of these dynamics and transitions from the first principles. The controllers combine local models for discretization error and Coulomb failure conditions to automatically adjust the time step size across several orders of magnitude. The methods do not require additional empirical or theoretical input and can resolve the pre‐rupture, interseismic, and seismic periods to the allowed accuracy. The computational results reveal that the proposed methods automatically capture the onset of reactivation and nucleation for homogeneous and heterogeneous fields. Hydrodynamic and structural heterogeneity lead to disparate critical nucleation sizes compared to those predicted by theory. The results highlight its potential in predicting induced seismicity in realistic subsurface engineering systems and at practical scales.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Survey of baffle plate samples, specimen machining, and hydrogen measurements

This report outlines preliminary results on the survey and characterization of irradiated baffle plate, baffle former, and flux thimble tube specimens as part of the ongoing investigation into irradiation-induced embrittlement in austenitic stainless steels at ambient (room temperature) conditions. The specimens originated from commercial pressurized water reactor (PWR) components, covering displacement damage doses ranging from approximately 0.065 to 75 dpa. Initial scanning electron microscopy (SEM) surveys revealed that specimen surfaces exhibited fine machining marks and in-service-formed oxide layers on the side surfaces of the analyzed specimens. The oxide layers revealed specific features resembling localized "pitting-like" corrosion. An additional set of specimens representing in-service oxidation is being preserved for future microstructure analysis work. As believed, this will provide additional insights into long-term material degradation in PRWs. Specimen machining challenges emerged due to a complex failure of the electric discharge machining (EDM) system located in hot area. Despite partial restoration, issues persist with the EDM’s secondary power supply, necessitating the exploration of alternative EDM or computer numerical control (CNC) machining approaches to facilitate tensile specimen preparation. Currently, low speed saw cutting is in progress to prepare specimens for hydrogen measurements and general microstructure analysis. The near-term goals include completing tensile specimen machining for advanced mechanical testing and characterizing fracture mechanisms, and stress-corrosion cracking testing, ultimately aiming to identify and mitigate the ambient-condition intergranular cracking through targeted post-irradiation annealing strategies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Status Report on Fast Flux Test Facility Mechanistic Fuel Failure Experiment Analysis with BISON for Post Irradiation Examination Support

The renewed interest in metallic U-Zr nuclear fuel alloy has led to a drive for deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving the phenomena observed under irradiation conditions. The Department of Energy Advanced Fuel Campaign has developed infrastructure to support metallic fuel development, including Post Irradiation Examination (PIE) of legacy Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) Mechanistic Fuel Failure (MFF) experiments. The PIE performed on legacy FFTF MFF experiments gives insight on metallic fuel performance and can address the lack of knowledge and scarcity of reliable data identified in several studies over recent years. Unfortunately, PIE efforts can cost significant time and resources which can impede the progress of metallic U-Zr fuel development. Metallic U-Zr fuel performance modeling can be used to inform PIE efforts on regions of interest for relevant investigations and can help understand phenomena observed in PIE. This report demonstrates the current progress of FFTF MFF fuel performance simulations using the BISON fuel performance code and discusses the support provided by simulation to PIE efforts. Progress in temperature, profilometry, fission gas release, plenum pressure, and zirconium redistribution simulation results have been demonstrated.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Overview of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Uncertainty Assessment Accident Progression Insights

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) with Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) have completed three uncertainty analyses (UAs) as part of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) program. The SOARCA UAs included an integrated evaluation of uncertainty in accident progression, radiological release, and offsite health consequence projections. The UA for Peach Bottom, a boiling-water reactor (BWR) with a Mark I containment located in the State of Pennsylvania, analyzed the unmitigated long-term station blackout SOARCA scenario. The UA for Sequoyah, a 4-loop Westinghouse pressurized-water reactor (PWR) located in the State of Tennessee, analyzed the unmitigated short-term station blackout SOARCA scenario, with a focus on issues unique to the ice condenser containment and the potential for early containment failure due to hydrogen deflagration. The UA for Surry, a 3-loop Westinghouse PWR with a sub-atmospheric large dry containment located in the State of Virginia, analyzed the unmitigated short-term station blackout SOARCA scenario including the potential for thermally-induced steam-generator tube rupture. These three UAs are currently documented in three NUREG/CR reports. This report provides input to planned NRC documentation on the insights and findings from the SOARCA UA program. The purpose of the summary report is to provide a useful reference for regulatory applications that require the evaluation of offsite consequence risk from beyond design basis event severe accidents. This report focuses on the accident progression and source term insights developed from the MELCOR analyses. MELCOR is the NRC's best-estimate, severe accident computer code used in the SOARCA UAs. In anticipation of the SOARCA UA insights work, NRC and Sandia benchmarked the response of the Peach Bottom model to selected reference calculations from the Peach Bottom SOARCA UA. Peach Bottom was the first SOARCA UA performed and was completed in 2015 using the MELCOR 1.8.6 code. The PWR SOARCA UAs evolved the original methodology and utilized the updated MELCOR 2.2 computer code. The Peach Bottom model has been systematically updated for other NRC research efforts and has been updated to MELCOR 2.2. computer code. The findings from the new reference calculations using the updated model with the MELCOR 2.2 code are also integrated into the report. A second objective is an assessment of the applicability of the results to the other nuclear reactors in the U.S. As the key findings are reviewed, judgments are presented on the applicability of the results to other U.S. nuclear power plants. An important objective of the SOARCA program relied on high- fidelity plant-specific modeling. However, the nature of the insights and conclusions allowed judgements to be made on the applicability of the various insights to the same general classification of plant (i.e., BWR or PWR) or the entire fleet of plants. Finally, the results from the SOARCA UA accident progression calculations contain a wealth of information not previously documented in the NUREG/CRs. This report includes new but related information that can be used to benchmark past or support future regulatory decisions related to severe accidents. The new work includes a benchmark of the NUREG-1465 licensing source term definitions, the variability of key accident progression events and timing to radionuclide release, and an improved understanding of the timing and source terms from consequential steam generator tube ruptures. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Sandia authors gratefully acknowledge the significant technical and programmatic contributions from the NRC SOARCA team which are reflected throughout the report. Dr. Tina Ghosh has been involved throughout the SOARCA UAs, providing the primary managerial and technical oversight. The long lists of NRC and Sandia contributors from the SOARCA UAs are cited in the three NUREG/CRs and are also gratefully acknowledged by the small team of authors compiling the results of their efforts. Significant technical contributions, advice, and reviews were provided by Dr. Hossein Esmaili, Dr. Alfred Hathaway, and Dr. Edward Fuller (retired) of the NRC. Dr. Randal Gauntt (retired), Mr. Patrick Mattie, Mr. Joseph Jones (retired), and Dr. Doug Osborn from Sandia are recognized as the SOARCA UA managers guiding the past efforts. There is a comparable list of project managers at the NRC including Ms. Patricia Santiago, Dr. Salman Haq, and Mr. Jon Barr. Sadly, we have lost Mr. Charlie Tinkler and Mr. Robert Prato, who were important contributors to the original SOARCA project. Finally, Mr. Kyle Ross and Mr. Mark Leonard have also retired but were significant technical contributors. Mr. Kyle Ross was the technical lead on all three SOARCA UAs and the original pressurized water reactor SOARCA study. Mr. Leonard was the technical lead on the original boiling water reactor SOARCA study and a key contributor to the first Peach Bottom SOARCA UA. iv

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Reconstruction and Failure Analysis of the Space Shuttle Columbia

Several days following the Columbia accident a team formed and began planning for the reconstruction of Columbia. A hangar at the Kennedy Space Center was selected for this effort due to it's size, available technical workforce and materials science laboratories and access to the vehicle ground processing infrastructure. The Reconstruction team established processes for receiving, handling, decontamination, tracking, identifying, cleaning and assessment of the debris. Initially, a 2-dimensional reconstruction of the Orbiter outer mold line was developed. As the investigation progressed fixtures which allowed a 3-dimensional reconstruction of the forward portions of the left wing's leading edge was developed. To support the reconstructions and forensic analyses a Materials and Processes (M&P) 'team was formed. This M&P team established processes for recording factual observations, debris cleaning, and engineering analysis. Fracture surfaces and thermal effects of selected airframe debris were assessed, and process flows for both nondestructive and destructive sampling and evaluation of debris were developed. The Team also assessed left hand airframe components that were believed to be associated with a structural breach of Columbia. A major portion of this analysis was evaluation of metallic deposits were prevalent on left wing leading edge components. Extensive evaluation of the visual, metallurgical and chemical nature of the deposits provided conclusions that were consistent with the visual assessments and interpretations of the NASA lead teams and the findings of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board. Analytical data collected by the M&P Team showed that a significant thermal event occurred at the left wing leading edge in the proximity of LH RCC Panels 8-9, and a correlation was formed between the deposits and overheating in these areas to the wing leading edge components. The analysis of deposits also showed exposure to temperatures in excess of 1649 C (3200 F), which would severely degrade support structure, tiles, and RCC panel materials. The integrated failure analysis of wing leading edge debris and deposits strongly supported the hypothesis that a breach occurred at LH RCC Panel 8.

Russell, Richard↗
NASA NTRS1988

Computational simulation methods for composite fracture mechanics

Structural integrity, durability, and damage tolerance of advanced composites are assessed by studying damage initiation at various scales (micro, macro, and global) and accumulation and growth leading to global failure, quantitatively and qualitatively. In addition, various fracture toughness parameters associated with a typical damage and its growth must be determined. Computational structural analysis codes to aid the composite design engineer in performing these tasks were developed. CODSTRAN (COmposite Durability STRuctural ANalysis) is used to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the progressive damage occurring in composite structures due to mechanical and environmental loads. Next, methods are covered that are currently being developed and used at Lewis to predict interlaminar fracture toughness and related parameters of fiber composites given a prescribed damage. The general purpose finite element code MSC/NASTRAN was used to simulate the interlaminar fracture and the associated individual as well as mixed-mode strain energy release rates in fiber composites.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Characterization of Two-Dimensionally Braided Composites Subject to Static and Fatigue Loading

This paper presents a characterization of damage processes in four different two-dimensionally braided architectures consisting of graphite fibers in an epoxy matrix, subjected to both static and fatigue loading. Both notched and unnotched specimens were tested from each architecture. Damage mechanisms in static compression testing were found to range from matrix cracking in an architecture controlled by shearing characteristics of the matrix to axial fiber bundle kinking and splitting in architectures controlled by unidirectional fiber bundles. In both static tension and tension-tension fatigue testing, it was found that all architectures sustained the same basic damage types and progression sequences. The first types of damage to occur were splits in the braider bundles and cracks in the resin rich areas. Once a sufficient density of this type of damage had occurred, the axial bundles began to disbond from the surrounding constituents, and continued to do so until ultimate failure. One architecture sustained an additional mode of failure, which involved splitting of the axial bundles along their length. Varied degrees of notch sensitivity were found among the different architectures. In one architecture, this was attributed to differences found in the stacking of the individual plys of the braided architecture. As the density of axial bundles adjacent to the notch increased, the rate of stiffness loss increased and the life decreased.

Burr, Scott T.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Space Launch System Implementation of Adaptive Augmenting Control

Given the complex structural dynamics, challenging ascent performance requirements, and rigorous flight certification constraints owing to its manned capability, the NASA Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle requires a proven thrust vector control algorithm design with highly optimized parameters to robustly demonstrate stable and high performance flight. On its development path to preliminary design review (PDR), the stability of the SLS flight control system has been challenged by significant vehicle flexibility, aerodynamics, and sloshing propellant dynamics. While the design has been able to meet all robust stability criteria, it has done so with little excess margin. Through significant development work, an adaptive augmenting control (AAC) algorithm previously presented by Orr and VanZwieten, has been shown to extend the envelope of failures and flight anomalies for which the SLS control system can accommodate while maintaining a direct link to flight control stability criteria (e.g. gain & phase margin). In this paper, the work performed to mature the AAC algorithm as a baseline component of the SLS flight control system is presented. The progress to date has brought the algorithm design to the PDR level of maturity. The algorithm has been extended to augment the SLS digital 3-axis autopilot, including existing load-relief elements, and necessary steps for integration with the production flight software prototype have been implemented. Several updates to the adaptive algorithm to increase its performance, decrease its sensitivity to expected external commands, and safeguard against limitations in the digital implementation are discussed with illustrating results. Monte Carlo simulations and selected stressing case results are shown to demonstrate the algorithm's ability to increase the robustness of the integrated SLS flight control system.

VanZwieten, Tannen S.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Creep, Fatigue and Fracture Behavior of Environmental Barrier Coating and SiC-SiC Ceramic Matrix Composite Systems: The Role of Environment Effects

Advanced environmental barrier coating (EBC) systems for low emission SiCSiC CMC combustors and turbine airfoils have been developed to meet next generation engine emission and performance goals. This presentation will highlight the developments of NASAs current EBC system technologies for SiC-SiC ceramic matrix composite combustors and turbine airfoils, their performance evaluation and modeling progress towards improving the engine SiCSiC component temperature capability and long-term durability. Our emphasis has also been placed on the fundamental aspects of the EBC-CMC creep and fatigue behaviors, and their interactions with turbine engine oxidizing and moisture environments. The EBC-CMC environmental degradation and failure modes, under various simulated engine testing environments, in particular involving high heat flux, high pressure, high velocity combustion conditions, will be discussed aiming at quantifying the protective coating functions, performance and durability, and in conjunction with damage mechanics and fracture mechanics approaches.

Environmental Barrier Coatings↗
NASA NTRS2015

3D Progressive Damage Modeling for Laminated Composite Based on Crack Band Theory and Continuum Damage Mechanics

A simple continuum damage mechanics (CDM) based 3D progressive damage analysis (PDA) tool for laminated composites was developed and implemented as a user defined material subroutine to link with a commercially available explicit finite element code. This PDA tool uses linear lamina properties from standard tests, predicts damage initiation with an easy-to-implement Hashin-Rotem failure criteria, and in the damage evolution phase, evaluates the degradation of material properties based on the crack band theory and traction-separation cohesive laws. It follows Matzenmiller et al.'s formulation to incorporate the degrading material properties into the damaged stiffness matrix. Since nonlinear shear and matrix stress-strain relations are not implemented, correction factors are used for slowing the reduction of the damaged shear stiffness terms to reflect the effect of these nonlinearities on the laminate strength predictions. This CDM based PDA tool is implemented as a user defined material (VUMAT) to link with the Abaqus/Explicit code. Strength predictions obtained, using this VUMAT, are correlated with test data for a set of notched specimens under tension and compression loads.

Wang, John T.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-term impact of light- and elevated temperature-induced degradation on photovoltaic arrays

Low levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) has been identified as critical for widespread adoption of photovoltaics (PV) without subsidies. Maintaining decades-long high-energy production is often an under-recognized opportunity in meeting cost goals because component lifetimes are not fully quantified at the time of manufacture. Whereas certain standardized tests minimize risk of early failure, there is little guidance to quantitatively predict degradation (or lack thereof) over decades, based on accelerated tests. In this article, we move toward bridging the understanding between indoor accelerated tests and outdoor performance data, with the goal of predicting energy yield with enough accuracy to inform financial decisions. Light- and elevated temperature-induced degradation (LETID) in p-type Si modules is analyzed in terms of impact on long-term module performance and thus LCOE. A method to predict the progression of LETID, using fixed kinetic constants and a numerical solution to the basic reaction rate equations, is detailed. Predictions are compared against both published data and that new to this study. These data include both indoor accelerated tests and fielded modules. We use the results in financial models to derive LCOE of modules in different climates with varying amounts of LETID, including uncertainty. Cost models based on the predictions indicate that LETID has a significant and climate-dependent impact on LCOE. Finally, we show that - even given the uncertainties identified in the study - these financial calculations can provide useful guidance to quantify risk based on accelerated test results. The analysis serves as an example of developing a predictive approach to PV reliability using physics of failure.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2015

Progress of a Cross-Correlation Based Optical Strain Measurement Technique for Detecting Radial Growth on a Rotating Disk

The modern turbine engine operates in a harsh environment at high speeds and is repeatedly exposed to combined high mechanical and thermal loads. The cumulative effects of these external forces lead to high stresses and strains on the engine components, such as the rotating turbine disks, which may eventually lead to a catastrophic failure if left undetected. The operating environment makes it difficult to use conventional strain gauges, therefore, non-contact strain measurement techniques is of interest to NASA and the turbine engine community. This presentation describes one such approach; the use of cross correlation analysis to measure strain experienced by the engine turbine disk with the goal of assessing potential faults and damage.

cross-correlation↗
DOE OSTI2023

PacWave South SeaRAY k2 Risk Registers

The SeaRAY is a deployable power system for maritime sensors, monitoring equipment, communications, unmanned underwater vehicles, and other similar payloads. This project is to design, deliver, and test a prototype low-power WEC that lowers the total cost of ownership and provides robust, new capabilities for customers in the maritime environment. Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is conducted to systematically identify all potential failure modes and their effects on the system, and to analyze the criticality of each risk based on the likelihood of the event and the severity of the impact. Actions may then be recommended to mitigate the criticality of a risk, either by reducing the likelihood of the risk or the severity of its impact. Risk assessment is executed iteratively as an integral part of the design process. By incorporating risk assessment early in the development cycle, mitigation of risk can be achieved cost effectively. The actions recommended to mitigate risk may be subsequently executed, and as the design progresses the risk assessment is reviewed and revised. Review of the risk assessment is integrated into structured design reviews, ensuring that critical risks are comprehended and that the Project will not progress to e.g. fabrication while intolerable risks remain. The risk assessment process results in the population and maintenance of Risk Registers (RRs). Each major system (and as needed, subsystem) will have a distinct RR. This allows each system or subsystem to be assessed individually, rendering the RRs to a manageable size for review.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

First-principles Modeling and Design of Solid-State Interfaces for the Protection and Use of Lithium Metal Anodes

Li-ion batteries are one of the most advanced energy storage technologies in use today. Li-ion batteries are used in a multitude of applications ranging from consumer electronics, medical devices, sensors and grid storage. However, improving the capacity and energy density delivered by current Li-ion technology requires advanced materials research into novel chemical systems. In this project we have focused particularly in the use of solid-state electrolytes with lithium metal electrodes. Research into all solid-state batteries (ASSB) with Li metal electrodes has significantly expanded in recent years, however most studies reported experimental findings, which left substantial room for theoretical and modeling work as a tool to understand and determine design principles allowing reliable and safe use of ASSBs with Li metal. Among the remaining obstacles preventing reliable use of ASSBs with a Li metal electrode, the stability of the interface between the solid electrolyte and Li metal, and the propagation/dendrite formation of Li metal and resulting mechanical degradation of the electrolyte are key phenomenon that are yet to be fully understood. In the current project we have addressed these two coupled phenomena using first principles calculations and mesoscale continuum modeling. We have obtained chemical and electrochemical stability windows for several solid electrolyte materials. Additionally, from mathematical and numerical modeling of Li protrusion and dendrite initiation during plating and stripping we have determined design criteria in terms of chemical, electrochemical, and mechanical properties and operating conditions for which stable deposition can occur. We also considered the effects of mixed electronic-ionic conduction in solid electrolytes, which has more recently been suggested as another important mechanism involved in ASSB failure. Throughout our work we have successfully addressed important questions necessary for the use of ASSB’s. We have determined guiding principles for materials properties and operating conditions necessary to operate ASSB’s. And have proposed novel solid electrolyte materials with predicted chemical stability an ionic conductivity. Although this represents significant progress in our understanding, open questions remain in order to fully develop reliable and safely operate ASSBs with Li metal. Future work, building on this project will require further experimental, theoretical and simulation efforts to address remaining questions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS2014

Space Launch System Implementation of Adaptive Augmenting Control

Given the complex structural dynamics, challenging ascent performance requirements, and rigorous flight certification constraints owing to its manned capability, the NASA Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle requires a proven thrust vector control algorithm design with highly optimized parameters to provide stable and high-performance flight. On its development path to Preliminary Design Review (PDR), the SLS flight control system has been challenged by significant vehicle flexibility, aerodynamics, and sloshing propellant. While the design has been able to meet all robust stability criteria, it has done so with little excess margin. Through significant development work, an Adaptive Augmenting Control (AAC) algorithm has been shown to extend the envelope of failures and flight anomalies the SLS control system can accommodate while maintaining a direct link to flight control stability criteria such as classical gain and phase margin. In this paper, the work performed to mature the AAC algorithm as a baseline component of the SLS flight control system is presented. The progress to date has brought the algorithm design to the PDR level of maturity. The algorithm has been extended to augment the full SLS digital 3-axis autopilot, including existing load-relief elements, and the necessary steps for integration with the production flight software prototype have been implemented. Several updates which have been made to the adaptive algorithm to increase its performance, decrease its sensitivity to expected external commands, and safeguard against limitations in the digital implementation are discussed with illustrating results. Monte Carlo simulations and selected stressing case results are also shown to demonstrate the algorithm's ability to increase the robustness of the integrated SLS flight control system.

Wall, John H.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Frequency–Magnitude Statistics of Laboratory Foreshocks Vary With Shear Velocity, Fault Slip Rate, and Shear Stress

Understanding the nucleation phase of earthquakes is key for advancing earthquake hazard assessment and improving earthquake early warning systems. However, little progress has been made in this area due to a poor understanding of nucleation processes and incomplete seismic and fault zone measurements. The ability to integrate measured fault zone properties with seismic data could significantly improve our understanding of how earthquakes begin and whether there are systematic variations in seismic properties preceding failure. In this work, we use high-resolution laboratory measurements of fault zone properties along with acoustic emission data to document temporal variations of foreshock properties. Our data show that foreshock size increases with shear stress, loading rate, and fault slip rate. We propose that the preseismic fault slip rate and fault zone thickness (i.e., porosity) work in concert to modulate foreshock properties.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1977

Coordinated NASA nickel-cadmium battery technology program

This paper describes the NASA nickel-cadmium (Ni-Cd) battery technology program which is being coordinated by JPL to provide NASA and other users with lighter and/or longer-lived Ni-Cd cells for low-earth-orbit, geosynchronous-orbit, and planetary spacecraft missions in the 1980s. The goal is to double the energy density and/or life of the system. Failure modes and mechanisms are differentiated and discussed to point out the critical design variables which affect Ni-Cd cell life. Cell component weights are listed, approaches for reducing weight are discussed, and program tasks and schedules are presented. The nine major tasks being worked on by various organizations are described. Progress has been made in weight reduction, understanding of life reliability mechanisms, and development of a process for manufacturing more stable electrodes. An accelerated and predictive life test program is approximately 30% complete. It appears feasible to double the life and/or usable energy density of the Ni-Cd cell.

Bogner, R. S.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Going South: Warnings from the Largest Project Engineering Failure in Modern History

NASA’s successful conduct of the Apollo Program greatly enhanced the prestige of the United States and remains broadly accepted as America’s gift “for all Mankind.” NASA’s Artemis Program to return humanity to the Moon promises to again reveal America’s leadership in this field. In preparation for the initiation of Artemis and its predecessor project Constellation, NASA thoroughly examined space program precedents. There remains, however, another relevant precedent which has not been examined in this context. Though this project involved technology radically different from that managed by NASA, its scope and environment in many ways parallel NASA’s large programs. This project was initiated by a private sector team that had, ten years before, successfully completed an effort that, at a cost of $275 billion (in 2021 USD), had stimulated new technology, had brought economic growth, had established their country as the world leader in engineering innovation, and, though it was a commercial success, had been broadly accepted as their nation’s gift “to all Mankind.” The new project was inspired by popular belief that private capital could again be marshalled to enhance national prestige and make yet another major contribution to the progress of Humanity. This new effort was predicted to require eight years and $258 billion. However, after the passage of nine years, achievement of only 45% complete on the baseline design, and expenditures 96% beyond the baseline cost, the project collapsed amid bankruptcy, political scandal, and criminal prosecution. While the private sector team that carried out this project was exceptionally well educated and experienced in the field, their efforts resulted in what remains (in terms of the money wasted) the largest project engineering failure in modern history. This paper examines what went wrong.

Project Management↗