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DOE OSTI2023

Comparing quantile regression forest and mixture density long short-term memory models for probabilistic post-processing of satellite precipitation-driven streamflow simulations

Abstract. Deep learning (DL) and machine learning (ML) are widely used in hydrological modelling, which plays a critical role in improving the accuracy of hydrological predictions. However, the trade-off between model performance and computational cost has always been a challenge for hydrologists when selecting a suitable model, particularly for probabilistic post-processing with large ensemble members. This study aims to systematically compare the quantile regression forest (QRF) model and countable mixtures of asymmetric Laplacians long short-term memory (CMAL-LSTM) model as hydrological probabilistic post-processors. Specifically, we evaluate their ability in dealing with biased streamflow simulations driven by three satellite precipitation products across 522 nested sub-basins of the Yalong River basin in China. Model performance is comprehensively assessed using a series of scoring metrics from both probabilistic and deterministic perspectives. Our results show that the QRF model and the CMAL-LSTM model are comparable in terms of probabilistic prediction, and their performances are closely related to the flow accumulation area (FAA) of the sub-basin. The QRF model outperforms the CMAL-LSTM model in most sub-basins with smaller FAA, while the CMAL-LSTM model has an undebatable advantage in sub-basins with FAA larger than 60 000 km2 in the Yalong River basin. In terms of deterministic predictions, the CMAL-LSTM model is preferred, especially when the raw streamflow is poorly simulated and used as input. However, setting aside the differences in model performance, the QRF model with 100-member quantiles demonstrates a noteworthy advantage by exhibiting a 50 % reduction in computation time compared to the CMAL-LSTM model with the same ensemble members in all experiments. As a result, this study provides insights into model selection in hydrological post-processing and the trade-offs between model performance and computational efficiency. The findings highlight the importance of considering the specific application scenario, such as the catchment size and the required accuracy level, when selecting a suitable model for hydrological post-processing.

Geology↗

NASA NTRS2003

Optimized bioregenerative space diet selection with crew choice

Previous studies on optimization of crew diets have not accounted for choice. A diet selection model with crew choice was developed. Scenario analyses were conducted to assess the feasibility and cost of certain crew preferences, such as preferences for numerous-desserts, high-salt, and high-acceptability foods. For comparison purposes, a no-choice and a random-choice scenario were considered. The model was found to be feasible in terms of food variety and overall costs. The numerous-desserts, high-acceptability, and random-choice scenarios all resulted in feasible solutions costing between 13.2 and 17.3 kg ESM/person-day. Only the high-sodium scenario yielded an infeasible solution. This occurred when the foods highest in salt content were selected for the crew-choice portion of the diet. This infeasibility can be avoided by limiting the total sodium content in the crew-choice portion of the diet. Cost savings were found by reducing food variety in scenarios where the preference bias strongly affected nutritional content.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS1998

Evaluation of the 29-km Eta Model: Objective Verification at Three Selected Stations - Part 1

This paper describes an objective verification of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 29-km eta model from May 1996 through January 1998. The evaluation was designed to assess the model's surface and upper-air point forecast accuracy at three selected locations during separate warm (May - August) and cool (October - January) season periods. In order to enhance sample sizes available for statistical calculations, the objective verification includes two consecutive warm and cool season periods. Systematic model deficiencies comprise the larger portion of the total error in most of the surface forecast variables that were evaluated. The error characteristics for both surface and upper-air forecasts vary widely by parameter, season, and station location. At upper levels, a few characteristic biases are identified. Overall however, the upper-level errors are more nonsystematic in nature and could be explained partly by observational measurement uncertainty. With a few exceptions, the upper-air results also indicate that 24-h model error growth is not statistically significant. In February and August 1997, NCEP implemented upgrades to the eta model's physical parameterizations that were designed to change some of the model's error characteristics near the surface. The results shown in this paper indicate that these upgrades led to identifiable and statistically significant changes in forecast accuracy for selected surface parameters. While some of the changes were expected, others were not consistent with the intent of the model updates and further emphasize the need for ongoing sensitivity studies and localized statistical verification efforts. Objective verification of point forecasts is a stringent measure of model performance, but when used alone, is not enough to quantify the overall value that model guidance may add to the forecast process. Therefore, results from a subjective verification of the meso-eta model over the Florida peninsula are discussed in the companion paper by Manobianco and Nutter. Overall verification results presented here and in part two should establish a reasonable benchmark from which model users and developers may pursue the ongoing eta model verification strategies in the future.

Nutter, Paul A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Artificial Photosynthesis with Next Generation Molecular Catalysts

The objective of this project was to develop a new class of molecular photocatalysts for CO 2 reduction that will enable breakthrough advances in artificial photosynthesis. A major limitation of existing photocatalytic assemblies is that only a small fraction of absorbed photons are converted into fuel due to inefficiencies in electron transport between the different system components. In the case of molecular catalysts for reduction of CO 2 , highly reducing electron equivalents are required for catalysis. As a result, the electron flux between the photosensitizer and CO 2 reduction catalyst is heavily biased towards the photosensitizer. One method to direct the electron flux towards productive photocatalysis is to design molecular catalysts for CO 2 reduction that operate at more favorable potentials than existing catalysts. The conventional approach is to tune the potential of the catalyst through selection of the supporting ligands, however, this only leads to incremental improvements due to the existence of an unfavorable scaling relationship between the rate and potential of catalysis. Our hypothesis is that the catalytic rate and potential can be simultaneously enhanced using bimetallic catalysts in which one metal improves the potential of catalysis and the second metal increases the rate of catalysis. During the course of this project, a few studies reported some success in improving photocatalytic CO 2 reduction with heterobimetallic complexes, demonstrating the potential of this approach to catalyst design.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1991

Robotic tool change mechanism

An assembly of three major components is disclosed which included a wrist interface plate which is secured to the wrist joint of a robotic arm, a tool interface plate which is secured to each tool intended for use by the robotic arm, and a tool holster for each tool attached to the interface plate. The wrist interface plate and a selected tool interface plate are mutually connectable together through an opening or recess in the upper face of the interface plate by means of a notched tongue protruding from the front face of the wrist interface plate which engages a pair of spring-biased rotatable notched wheels located within the body of the tool interface plate. The tool holster captures and locks onto the tool interface plate by means of a pair of actuation claws including a locking tab and an unlocking wedge which operate respective actuation bosses on each of the notched wheels in response to a forward and backward motion of the tool interface plate as a result of motion of the robotic arm to either park the tool or use the tool.

Voellmer, George M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiplicity dependence of charged-particle intra-jet properties in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

The first measurement of the multiplicity dependence of intra-jet properties of leading charged-particle jets in proton–proton (pp) collisions is reported. The mean charged particle multiplicity and jet fragmentation distributions are measured in minimum-bias and high-multiplicity pp collisions at center-of-mass energy $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV using the ALICE detector. Jets are reconstructed from charged particles produced in the midrapidity region (|η| < 0.9) using the sequential recombination anti-k T algorithm with jet resolution parameters R = 0.2, 0.3, and 0.4 for the trans verse momentum (p T ) interval 5–110 GeV/c. The high multiplicity events are selected by the forward V0 scintilla tor detectors. The mean charged-particle multiplicity inside the leading jet cone rises monotonically with increasing jet p T in qualitative agreement with previous measurements at lower energies. The distributions of jet fragmentation function variables z ch and ξ ch are measured for different jet-p T intervals. Jet-p T independent fragmentation of leading jets is observed for wider jets except at high- and low-z ch values. The observed “hump-backed plateau” structure in the ξ ch distribution indicates suppression of low-p T particles. In high-multiplicity events, an enhancement of the fragmen tation probability of low-z ch particles accompanied by a suppression of high-zch particles is observed compared to minimum-bias events. This behavior becomes more promi nent for low-p T jets with larger jet radius. The results are compared with predictions of QCD-inspired event generators, PYTHIA 8 with Monash 2013 tune and EPOS LHC. It is found that PYTHIA 8 qualitatively reproduces the jet modification in high-multiplicity events except at high jet p T . These measurements provide important constraints to models of jet fragmentation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Route to Design Novel Functional Peptides by Applying a Denoising Diffusional Model to mRNA Display Libraries

In vitro directed evolution techniques, such as mRNA display, enable peptide ligand discovery and optimization. However, physical libraries that rely on a genetic code can only search a small fraction of sequence space due to inherent biases in the genetic code and experimental limitations. To address this challenge, denoising diffusion implicit models (DDIMs) are applied to generate novel peptide ligands against B‐cell lymphoma extra‐large (Bcl‐x L ), a key cancer target. Starting with high‐throughput sequencing data from previous selections, a DDIM is trained to produce novel sequences with high affinity binding. Experimental validation confirms that most generated sequences are functionally equivalent to the original library members for Bcl‐x L binding and demonstrated comparable binding kinetics and affinity relative to the wildtype and nearest original neighbors. Importantly, this approach generated rare sequences not easily accessible via mutation and directed evolution. These results indicate that DDIMs can complement and expand directed evolution data, efficiently exploring underrepresented regions of sequence space. This approach provides a broadly applicable framework for accelerating ligand discovery and optimizing molecular properties across diverse targets.

Qi, Pearl [Mork Family Department of Chemical Engi↗

DOE OSTI2023

Clustering of red sequence galaxies in the fourth data release of the Kilo-Degree Survey

We present a sample of luminous red sequence galaxies as the basis for a study of the large-scale structure in the fourth data release of the Kilo-Degree Survey. The selected galaxies are defined by a red sequence template, in the form of a data-driven model of the colour-magnitude relation conditioned on redshift. In this work, the red sequence template was built using the broad-band optical+near infrared photometry of KiDS-VIKING and the overlapping spectroscopic data sets. The selection process involved estimating the red sequence redshifts, assessing the purity of the sample and estimating the underlying redshift distributions of redshift bins. After performing the selection, we mitigated the impact of survey properties on the observed number density of galaxies by assigning photometric weights to the galaxies. We measured the angular two-point correlation function of the red galaxies in four redshift bins and constrain the large-scale bias of our red sequence sample assuming a fixed ΛCDM cosmology. We find consistent linear biases for two luminosity-threshold samples (‘dense’ and ‘luminous’). We find that our constraints are well characterised by the passive evolution model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1981

Monolithic CCD-array readout

Circuit is self-biasing, with differential current-to-voltage conversion. CMOS current-differencing readout consists of dc-balanced pair of virtual ground stages and current-differencing circuit similar to circuit mirror. Triode multiplier cell replaces test sources to form monolithic configuration. Transistors belonging to selected multiplier cell need to be duplicated for each multiplier within correlator chip. Remaining elements form part of readout and may be scaled as single common readout stage.

Farnsworth, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Intersubband infrared absorption in Ge(x)Si(1-x)/Si superlattice by photocurrent measurement

The intersubband IR absorption of holes in a Ge(x)Si(1-x)/Si superlattice is observed for the first time. In the experiment, the photocurrent is measured as a function of applied bias which is used to inject holes to the minibands of the superlattice. Two peaks in the photocurrent as a function of bias across the device are observed due to intersubband absorption between the ground to the first and the first of the second light hole minibands. The polarization dependence measurement is used to study the nature of the transitions and is in good agreement with the selection rules.

Karunasiri, R. P. G.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Experimental Impacts into Chondritic Targets: Disruption of an L6 Chondrite by Multiple Impacts - Part 1

A fragment of an L6 chondrite (ALH 85017,13) with an initial mass (M(sub 0)) of 464.1 g was the target in a series of experimental impacts in which the largest remaining fragment (M(sub R)) after each shot was impacted by a 3.18-mm ceramic sphere at a nominal speed of 2 km/s. This continued until the mass of the largest remaining piece was less than half the mass of the target presented to that shot (M(sub S)). Two chunks of Bushveldt gabbro with similar initial masses were also impacted under the same conditions until M(sub R) was less than half M(sub 0). The two gabbro targets required a total of 1.51x10(exp 7) and 1.75x10(exp 7) erg/g to attain 0.27 and 0.33 M(sub R)/M(sub 0), respectively; the chondrite, however, was considerably tougher, reaching 0.40 and 0.21 M(sub R)/M(sub 0) only after receiving 2.37x10(exp 7) and 3.10x10(exp 7) erg g-1, respectively. The combined ejecta and spallation products from the gabbro impacts were coarser than those from the chondrite and in sufficient quantities that the new surface areas exceeded those from the meteorite until the fifth shot in the chondrite series, which was the number of impacts required to disrupt each gabbro target (i.e., MR/M0 = 0.5). Unlike the behavior shown in previous regolith-evolution series, neither gabbro target produced an enhancement in the size fraction reflecting the mean size of the crystals composing the rock (about 3 mm), an effect possibly related to the width of the shock pulse. The original chondrite was so fine-grained and fractured, and the variance in its grain-size distribution so large, that effects related to grain-size were relegated to the <63- m fraction. Impacts into ALH 85017 produced abundant, fine-grained debris, but otherwise the slopes of its size distributions were comparable to those from other experiments involving natural and fabricated terrestrial targets. The characteristic slopes of the chondrite's size distributions, however, were notably more constant over the entire nine-impact series than those from any of the terrestrial targets, a testament to the control over comminution apparently exerted by pre-existing fractures and other, microscopic damage in the meteorite. The enhancement in the finer fraction of debris from ALH 85017 indicates that ordinary chondrites in solar orbit would be very efficient contributors to the cosmic-dust complex. At the same time, the greater resistance to disruption displayed by ordinary chondrites relative to that exhibited by igneous rocks indicates that a selection effect could be operative between the annealed, ordinary-chondritic breccias and relatively weaker, differentiated meteorites. Preferential survival from their time in the regoliths of their parent bodies through their transit to Earth and passage through the atmosphere suggests that meteorite collections could be biased in favor of the ordinary chondrites.

Cintala, Mark J.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ground and In-Flight Calibration of the OSIRIS-REx Camera Suite

The OSIRIS-REx Camera Suite (OCAMS) onboard the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft is used to study the shape and surface of the mission’s target, asteroid (101955) Bennu,in support of the selection of a sampling site. We present calibration methods and results for the three OCAMS cameras—MapCam, PolyCam, and SamCam—using data from pre-flight and in-flight calibration campaigns. Pre-flight calibrations established a baseline fora variety of camera properties, including bias and dark behavior, flat fields, stray light, and radiometric calibration. In-flight activities updated these calibrations where possible, allowing us to confidently measure Bennu’s surface. Accurate calibration is critical not only for establishing a global understanding of Bennu, but also for enabling analyses of potential sampling locations and for providing scientific context for the returned sample.

E Mazarico↗

DOE OSTI2026

The 3D clustering of Lyman Alpha Emitters measured with DESI

We present a clustering analysis of Lyman-$α$ emitters (LAEs) using spectroscopic observations from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) of candidates selected from the Blanco/DECam Intermediate-Band Imaging Survey (IBIS). We measure the two-point correlation function and the power spectrum, including cross-correlations with DESI quasars. Using both analytical and halo occupation distribution (HOD) simulation-based modeling, we find a linear bias of $b \sim 2.31$--$2.62$ for LAEs over the redshift range $2.26 < z < 3.41$. The analytical modeling also provides constraints on the strength of radiative transfer effects, while the HOD analysis characterizes the LAE-halo connection across multiple models. Finally, we quantify the magnitude of non-perturbative clustering effects such as Fingers of God in the LAE population, providing essential input for the accurate modeling of LAE-based cosmological analyses in forthcoming high-redshift surveys such as DESI-II.

Ebina, H. [UC, Berkeley; LBL, Berkeley] (ORCID:000↗

DOE OSTI2022

Empirical relationships between environmental factors and soil organic carbon produce comparable prediction accuracy as the Machine Learning

Accurate representation of environmental controllers of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Earth System Model (ESM) land models could reduce uncertainties in future carbon-climate feedback projections. Using empirical relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks to evaluate land models can help modelers understand prediction biases beyond what can be achieved with the observed SOC stocks alone. In this study, we used 31 observed environmental factors, field SOC observations (n = 6,213) from the continental US, and two Machine Learning approaches [Random Forest (RF) and Generalized Additive Modeling (GAM)] to (1) select important environmental predictors of SOC stocks, (2) derive empirical relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks, and (3) use the derived relationships to predict SOC stocks and compare the prediction accuracy of simpler model developed with the machine learning predictions. Out of the 31 environmental factors we investigated, 12 were identified as important predictors of SOC stocks by the RF approach. In contrast, the GAM approach identified six (of those 12) environmental factors as important controllers of SOC stocks: potential evapotranspiration, normalized difference vegetation index, soil drainage condition, precipitation, elevation, and net primary productivity. The GAM approach showed minimal SOC predictive importance of the remaining six environmental factors identified by the RF approach. Our derived empirical relations produced comparable prediction accuracy as the GAM and RF approach using only a subset of environmental factors. The empirical relationships we derived using the GAM approach can serve as important benchmarks to evaluate environmental control representations of SOC stocks in ESMs, which could reduce uncertainty in predicting future carbon-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enabling Stable and Salt-Free Formic Acid Production via Reactive Interface Optimization in Forward-Bias Bipolar-Membrane CO2 Electrolyzers

Electrochemical conversion of CO2 to liquid products is limited by parasitic reactions that consume products and destabilize operation. Here, we show that salt-free formic acid synthesis in a forward-bias bipolar-membrane CO2 electrolyzer is governed by a coupled reaction-transport instability driven by parasitic anode formic acid oxidation. Operando mass spectrometry reveals that this process proceeds through CO-mediated poisoning, identifying catalyst tolerance to CO as a key descriptor of anode selectivity. Among the catalysts examined, PtRu/C preferentially promotes hydrogen oxidation over formic acid oxidation. Coupling this catalyst with transport-interface engineering improves product removal, enhances Faradaic and energy efficiency, and enables stable operation at 200 mA/cm2 for 190 h with a voltage decay of 0.64 mV/h. Techno-economic analysis indicates an 18% reduction in minimum selling price and highlights product concentration as the dominant cost lever. These results establish a general framework for suppressing product oxidation in liquid-product electrolyzers.

Hu, Leiming↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 results: Clustering redshifts and importance sampling of self-organized-maps 𝑛⁡(𝑧) realizations for 3 × 2 ⁢pt samples

This work is part of a series establishing the redshift framework for the 3 × 2 ⁢pt analysis of the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6). For DES Y6, photometric redshift distributions are estimated using self-organizing maps (SOMs), calibrated with spectroscopic and many-band photometric data. To overcome limitations from color-redshift degeneracies and incomplete spectroscopic coverage, we enhance this approach by incorporating clustering-based redshift constraints (clustering-z, or WZ) from angular cross-correlations with BOSS and eBOSS galaxies and eBOSS quasar samples. We define a WZ likelihood and apply importance sampling to a large ensemble of SOM-derived 𝑛⁡(𝑧) realizations, selecting those consistent with the clustering measurements to produce a posterior sample for each lens and source bin. The analysis uses angular scales corresponding to 1.5–5 Mpc to optimize signal-to-noise ratio while mitigating modeling uncertainties and marginalizes over redshift-dependent galaxy bias and other systematics informed by the N-body simulation CARDINAL . While a sparser spectroscopic reference sample limits WZ constraining power at 𝑧 >1.1, particularly for source bins, we demonstrate that combining SOM with WZ improves redshift accuracy and enhances the overall cosmological constraining power of DES Y6. As a result, we estimate an improvement in 𝑆 8 of approximately 10% for cosmic shear and 3 ×2⁢pt analysis, primarily due to the WZ calibration of the source samples.

Cosmological parameters↗

DOE OSTI2022

Pursuing Dark Energy with Large Galaxy Redshift Surveys: Baryon Acoustic Oscillations and Beyond (Final Technical Report)

We have developed and applied methods of large-scale structure from galaxy redshift surveys to the study of dark energy. This program supported my group's development of the baryon acoustic method and our participation in the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. In addition to my leadership role in the DESI collaboration, my group at Harvard focused on several topics addressing key needs of the DESI science program. 1) We continued our design, validation, and documentation of DESI target selection of the luminous red galaxy and emission-line galaxy samples. 2) We applied simulations from our novel and extremely fast N-body code to make DESI catalogs. With these, we will search for possible systematic shifts in the acoustic scale due to clustering bias with an unprecedented volume of simulations. 3) We extended our method for the fast construction of covariance matrices for correlation functions. 4) We developed new large-scale structure methods, including density-field reconstruction and three-point function analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP)

Abstract. Large-scale interaction between the three tropical ocean basins is an area of intense research that is often conducted through experimentation with numerical models. A common problem is that modeling groups use different experimental setups, which makes it difficult to compare results and delineate the role of model biases from differences in experimental setups. To address this issue, an experimental protocol for examining interaction between the tropical basins is introduced. The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP) consists of experiments in which sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed to follow observed values in selected basins. There are two types of experiments. One type, called standard pacemaker, consists of simulations in which SSTs are restored to observations in selected basins during a historical simulation. The other type, called pacemaker hindcast, consists of seasonal hindcast simulations in which SSTs are restored to observations during 12-month forecast periods. TBIMIP is coordinated by the Climate and Ocean – Variability, Predictability, and Change (CLIVAR) Research Focus on Tropical Basin Interaction. The datasets from the model simulations will be made available to the community to facilitate and stimulate research on tropical basin interaction and its role in seasonal-to-decadal variability and climate change.

Richter, Ingo↗