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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2009

Distribution and Radiative Forcing of Tropical Thin Cirrus Clouds

To understand the radiative impact of tropical thin cirrus clouds, the frequency of occurrence and optical depths of these clouds have been derived. Thin cirrus clouds are defined here as being those that are not detected by the operational Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud mask, corresponding to an optical depth value of approximately 0.3 or smaller, but that are detectable in terms of the cirrus reflectance product based on the MODIS 1.375-micron channel. With such a definition, thin cirrus clouds were present in more than 40% of the pixels flagged as clear sky by the operational MODIS cloud mask algorithm. It is shown that these thin cirrus clouds are frequently observed in deep convective regions in the western Pacific. Thin cirrus optical depths were derived from the cirrus reflectance product. Regions of significant cloud fraction and large optical depths were observed in the Northern Hemisphere during the boreal spring and summer and moved southward during the boreal autumn and winter. The radiative effects of tropical thin cirrus clouds were studied on the basis of the retrieved cirrus optical depths, the atmospheric profiles derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations, and a radiative transfer model in conjunction with a parameterization of ice cloud spectral optical properties. To understand how these clouds regulate the radiation field in the atmosphere, the instantaneous net fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and at the surface were calculated. The present study shows positive and negative net forcings at the TOA and at the surface, respectively. The positive (negative) net forcing at the TOA (surface) is due to the dominance of longwave (shortwave) forcing. Both the TOA and surface forcings are in a range of 0-20 W/sq m, depending on the optical depths of thin cirrus clouds.

THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS↗
NASA NTRS2010

Space Technology 5 (ST-5) Observations of the Imbalance of Region 1 and 2 Field-Aligned Currents

Space Technology 5 (ST-5) is a three micro-satellite constellation deployed into a 300 x 4500 km, dawn-dusk, sun-synchronous polar orbit from March 22 to June 21, 2006, for technology validations. In this study, we use the in-situ magnetic field observations from Space Technology 5 mission to quantify the imbalance of Region 1 (R1) and Region 2 (R2) currents. During the three-month duration of the ST5 mission, geomagnetic conditions range from quiet to moderately active. We find that the R1 current intensity is consistently stronger than the R2 current intensity both for the dawnside and the duskside large-scale field-aligned current system. The net currents flowing into (out of) the ionosphere in the dawnside (duskside) are in the order of 5% of the total RI currents. We also find that the net currents flowing into or out of the ionosphere are controlled by the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction in the same way as the field-aligned currents themselves are. Since the net currents due to the imbalance of the R1 and R2 currents require that their closure currents flow across the polar cap from dawn to dusk as Pedersen currents, our results indicate that the total amount of the cross-polar cap Pedersen currents is in the order of approx. 0.1 MA. This study, although with a very limited dataset, is one of the first attempts to quantify the cross-polar cap Pedersen currents. Given the importance of the Joule heating due to Pedersen currents to the high-latitude ionospheric electrodynamics, quantifying the cross-polar cap Pedersen currents and associated Joule heating is needed for developing models of the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling.

Le, Guan↗
NASA NTRS2011

ST5 Observations of the Imbalance of Region 1 and 2 Field-Aligned Currents and Its Implication to the Cross-Polar Cap Pedersen Currents

In this study, we use the in-situ magnetic field observations from Space Technology 5 mission to quantify the imbalance of Region 1 (R1) and Region 2 (R2) currents. During the three-month duration of the ST5 mission, geomagnetic conditions range from quiet to moderately active. We find that the R1 current intensity is consistently stronger than the R2 current intensity both for the dawnside and the duskside large-scale field-aligned current system. The net currents flowing into (out of) the ionosphere in the dawnside (duskside) are in the order of 5% of the total R1 currents. We also find that the net currents flowing into or out of the ionosphere are controlled by the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction in the same way as the field-aligned currents themselves are. Since the net currents due to the imbalance of the R1 and R2 currents require that their closure currents flow across the polar cap from dawn to dusk as Pedersen currents, our results indicate that the total amount of the cross-polar cap Pedersen currents is in the order of ~ 0.1 MA. This study, although with a very limited dataset, is one of the first attempts to quantify the cross-polar cap Pedersen currents. Given the importance of the Joule heating due to Pedersen currents to the high-latitude ionospheric electrodynamics, quantifying the cross-polar cap Pedersen currents and associated Joule heating is needed for developing models of the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling.

Le, Guan↗
NASA NTRS2008

Aircraft System Analysis of Technology Benefits to Civil Transport Rotorcraft

An aircraft systems analysis was conducted to evaluate the net benefits of advanced technologies on two conceptual civil transport rotorcraft, to quantify the potential of future civil rotorcraft to become operationally viable and economically competitive, with the ultimate goal of alleviating congestion in our airways, runways and terminals. These questions are three of many that must be resolved for the successful introduction of civil transport rotorcraft: 1) Can civil transport rotorcraft actually relieve current airport congestion and improve overall air traffic and passenger throughput at busy hub airports? What is that operational scenario? 2) Can advanced technology make future civil rotorcraft economically competitive in scheduled passenger transport? What are those enabling technologies? 3) What level of investment is necessary to mature the key enabling technologies? This study addresses the first two questions, and several others, by applying a systems analysis approach to a broad spectrum of potential advanced technologies at a conceptual level of design. The method was to identify those advanced technologies that showed the most promise and to quantify their benefits to the design, development, production, and operation of future civil rotorcraft. Adjustments are made to sizing data by subject matter experts to reflect the introduction of new technologies that offer improved performance, reduced weight, reduced maintenance, or reduced cost. This study used projected benefits from new, advanced technologies, generally based on research results, analysis, or small-scale test data. The technologies are identified, categorized and quantified in the report. The net benefit of selected advanced technologies is quantified for two civil transport rotorcraft concepts, a Single Main Rotor Compound (SMRC) helicopter designed for 250 ktas cruise airspeed and a Civil Tilt Rotor (CTR) designed for 350 ktas cruise airspeed. A baseline design of each concept was sized for a representative civil passenger transport mission, using current technology. Individual advanced technologies are quantified and applied to resize the aircraft, thereby quantifying the net benefit of that technology to the rotorcraft. Estimates of development cost, production cost and operating and support costs are made with a commercial cost estimating program, calibrated to Boeing products with adjustments for future civil production processes. A cost metric of cash direct operating cost per available seat-mile (DOC ASM) is used to compare the cost benefit of the technologies. The same metric is used to compare results with turboprop operating costs. Reduced engine SFC was the most advantageous advanced technology for both rotorcraft concepts. Structural weight reduction was the second most beneficial technology, followed by advanced drive systems and then by technology for rotorcraft performance. Most of the technologies evaluated in this report should apply similarly to conventional helicopters. The implicit assumption is that resources will become available to mature the technologies for fullscale production aircraft. That assumption is certainly the weak link in any forecast of future possibilities. The analysis serves the purpose of identifying which technologies offer the most potential benefit, and thus the ones that should receive the highest priority for continued development. This study directly addressed the following NASA Subsonic Rotary Wing (SRW) subtopics: SR W.4.8.I.J Establish capability for rotorcraft system analysis and SRW. 4.8.I.4 Conduct limited technology benefit assessment on baseline rotorcraft configurations.

Wilkerson, Joseph B.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Sensitivity of Boreal-Summer Circulation and Precipitation to Atmospheric Aerosols in Selected Regions: The Americas - Part 2

Aerosol perturbations over selected land regions are imposed in Version-4 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-4) general circulation model (GCM) to assess the influence of increasing aerosol concentrations on regional circulation patterns and precipitation in four selected regions: India, Africa, and North and South America. Part 1 of this paper addresses the responses to aerosol perturbations in India and Africa. This paper presents the same for aerosol perturbations over the Americas. GEOS-4 is forced with prescribed aerosols based on climatological data, which interact with clouds using a prognostic scheme for cloud microphysics including aerosol nucleation of water and ice cloud hydrometeors. In clear-sky conditions the aerosols interact with radiation. Thus the model includes comprehensive physics describing the aerosol direct and indirect effects on climate (hereafter ADE and AIE respectively). Each simulation is started from analyzed initial conditions for 1 May and was integrated through June-July-August of each of the six years: 1982 1987 to provide a 6-ensemble set. Results are presented for the difference between simulations with double the climatological aerosol concentration and one-half the climatological aerosol concentration for three experiments: two where the ADE and AIE are applied separately and one in which both the ADE and AIE are applied. The ADE and AIE both yield reductions in net radiation at the top of the atmosphere and surface while the direct absorption of shortwave radiation contributes a net radiative heating in the atmosphere. A large net heating of the atmosphere is also apparent over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean that is attributable to the large aerosol perturbation imposed over Africa. This atmospheric warming and the depression of the surface pressure over North America contribute to a northward shift of the inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over northern America, an increase in precipitation over Central America and the Caribbean, and an enhancement of convergence in the North American monsoon region.

Wilcox, E. M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Stardust-NExT, Deep Impact, and the Accelerating Spin of 9P/Tempel One

The evolution of the spin rate of comet 9P/Tempel 1 through two perihelion passages (CYs 2000 and 2005) is determined from 1922 Earth-based observations taken over a period of 13y as part of a World-Wide observing campaign and 2888 observations taken over a period of 50d from the Deep Impact spacecraft. We determine the following sidereal spin rates (periods): 209.023 +/- 0.025 degrees /day (41.335 +/- 0.005 h) prior to the 2000 perihelion passage, 210.448 +/- 0.016 degrees/day (41.055 +/- 0.003 h) for the interval between the 2000 and 2005 perihelion passages, 211.856 +/- 0.030 degrees/day (40.783 +/- 0.006 h) from Deep Impact photometry just prior to the 2005 perihelion passage, and 211.625 +/- 0.012 degrees /day (40.827 +/- 0.002 h) in the interval 2006-2010 following the 2005 perihelion passage. The period decreased by 16.8 +/- 0.3 min during the 2000 passage and by 13.7 +/- 0.2 min during the 2005 passage suggesting a secular decrease in the net torque. The change in spin rate is asymmetric with respect to perihelion with the maximum net torque being applied on approach to perihelion. The Deep Impact data alone show that the spin rate was increasing at a rate of 0.024 +/- 0.003 degree/d/d at JD2453530.60510 (i.e., 25.134 d before impact) and provides independent confirmation of the change seen in the Earth-based observations. The rotational phase of the nucleus at times before and after each perihelion and at the Deep Impact encounter is estimated based on the Thomas et al. pole and longitude system. The possibility of a 180 degree error in the rotational phase is assessed and found to be significant. Analytical and physical modeling of the behavior of the spin rate through of each perihelion is presented and used as a basis to predict the rotational state of the nucleus at the time of the nominal (i.e., prior to February 2010) Stardust-NExT encounter on 2011 February 14 20:42. We find that a net torque in the range of 0.3 - 2.5 x 10(exp 7) kg.square m2/square s acts on the nucleus during perihelion passage. The spin rate initially slows down on approach to perihelion and then passes through a minimum. It then accelerates rapidly as it passes through perihelion eventually reaching a maximum post-perihelion. It then decreases to a stable value as the nucleus moves away from the sun. We find that the pole direction is unlikely to precess by more than approximately 1 degree/perihelion passage. The trend of the period with time and the fact that the modeled peak torque that occurs before perihelion is in agreement with published accounts of trends in water production rate and suggests that widespread H2O out-gassing from the surface is largely responsible for the observed spin-up.

Belton, Michael J. S.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Windows(Registered Trademark)-Based Software Models Cyclic Oxidation Behavior

Oxidation of high-temperature aerospace materials is a universal issue for combustion-path components in turbine or rocket engines. In addition to the question of the consumption of material due to growth of protective scale at use temperatures, there is also the question of cyclic effects and spallation of scale on cooldown. The spallation results in the removal of part of the protective oxide in a discontinuous step and thereby opens the way for more rapid oxidation upon reheating. In experiments, cyclic oxidation behavior is most commonly characterized by measuring changes in weight during extended time intervals that include hundreds or thousands of heating and cooling cycles. Weight gains occurring during isothermal scale-growth processes have been well characterized as being parabolic or nearly parabolic functions of time because diffusion controls reaction rates. In contrast, the net weight change in cyclic oxidation is the sum of the effects of the growth and spallation of scale. Typically, the net weight gain in cyclic oxidation is determined only empirically (that is, by measurement), with no unique or straightforward mathematical connection to either the rate of growth or the amount of metal consumed. Thus, there is a need for mathematical modeling to infer spallation mechanisms. COSP is a computer program that models the growth and spallation processes of cyclic oxidation on the basis of a few elementary assumptions that were discussed in COSP: A Computer Model of Cyclic Oxidation, Oxidation of Metals, vol. 36, numbers 1 and 2, 1991, pages 81-112. Inputs to the model include the selection of an oxidation-growth law and a spalling geometry, plus oxide-phase, growth-rate, cycle-duration, and spall-constant parameters. (The spalling fraction is often shown to be a constant factor times the existing amount of scale.) The output of COSP includes the net change in weight, the amounts of retained and spalled oxide, the total amounts of oxygen and metal consumed, and the terminal rates of weight loss and metal consumption.

Smialek, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Environmental Loss Characterization of an Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC-E2) Insulation Package Using a Mock Heater Head

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC) have been developing the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system for space science missions. This generator would use two highefficiency Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs), developed by Sunpower Inc. and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). As part of ground testing of these ASCs, different operating conditions are used to simulate expected mission conditions. These conditions require achieving a specified electrical power output for a given net heat input. While electrical power output can be precisely quantified, thermal power input to the Stirling cycle cannot be directly measured. In an effort to improve net heat input predictions, the Mock Heater Head was developed with the same relative thermal paths as a convertor using a conducting rod to represent the Stirling cycle and tested to provide a direct comparison to numerical and empirical models used to predict convertor net heat input. The Mock Heater Head also served as the pathfinder for a higher fidelity version of validation test hardware, known as the Thermal Standard. This paper describes how the Mock Heater Head was tested and utilized to validate a process for the Thermal Standard.

Schifer, Nicholas A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Coupled Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate Twentieth-Century Transient Model Investigation: Trends in Short-Lived Species and Climate Responses

The authors simulate transient twentieth-century climate in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM, with aerosol and ozone chemistry fully coupled to one another and to climate including a full dynamic ocean. Aerosols include sulfate, black carbon (BC), organic carbon, nitrate, sea salt, and dust. Direct and BC snow-albedo radiative effects are included. Model BC and sulfur trends agree fairly well with records from Greenland and European ice cores and with sulfur deposition in North America; however, the model underestimates the sulfur decline at the end of the century in Greenland. Global BC effects peak early in the century (1940s); afterward the BC effects decrease at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but continue to increase at lower latitudes. The largest increase in aerosol optical depth occurs in the middle of the century (1940s-80s) when sulfate forcing peaks and causes global dimming. After this, aerosols decrease in eastern North America and northern Eurasia leading to regional positive forcing changes and brightening. These surface forcing changes have the correct trend but are too weak. Over the century, the net aerosol direct effect is -0.41 Watts per square meter, the BC-albedo effect is -0.02 Watts per square meter, and the net ozone forcing is +0.24 Watts per square meter. The model polar stratospheric ozone depletion develops, beginning in the 1970s. Concurrently, the sea salt load and negative radiative flux increase over the oceans around Antarctica. Net warming over the century is modeled fairly well; however, the model fails to capture the dynamics of the observedmidcentury cooling followed by the late century warming.Over the century, 20% of Arctic warming and snow ice cover loss is attributed to the BC albedo effect. However, the decrease in this effect at the end of the century contributes to Arctic cooling. To test the climate responses to sulfate and BC pollution, two experiments were branched from 1970 that removed all pollution sulfate or BC. Averaged over 1970-2000, the respective radiative forcings relative to the full experiment were +0.3 and -0.3 Watts per square meter; the average surface air temperature changes were +0.2 degrees and -0.03 C. The small impact of BC reduction on surface temperature resulted from reduced stability and loss of low-level clouds.

Koch, Dorothy↗
NASA NTRS2012

Aerosol Direct, Indirect, Semidirect, and Surface Albedo Effects from Sector Contributions Based on the IPCC AR5 Emissions for Preindustrial and Present-day Conditions

The anthropogenic increase in aerosol concentrations since preindustrial times and its net cooling effect on the atmosphere is thought to mask some of the greenhouse gas-induced warming. Although the overall effect of aerosols on solar radiation and clouds is most certainly negative, some individual forcing agents and feedbacks have positive forcing effects. Recent studies have tried to identify some of those positive forcing agents and their individual emission sectors, with the hope that mitigation policies could be developed to target those emitters. Understanding the net effect of multisource emitting sectors and the involved cloud feedbacks is very challenging, and this paper will clarify forcing and feedback effects by separating direct, indirect, semidirect and surface albedo effects due to aerosols. To this end, we apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model including detailed aerosol microphysics to examine aerosol impacts on climate by isolating single emission sector contributions as given by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) emission data sets developed for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5. For the modeled past 150 years, using the climate model and emissions from preindustrial times to present-day, the total global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing is -0.6 W/m(exp 2), with the largest contribution from the direct effect (-0.5 W/m(exp 2)). Aerosol-induced changes on cloud cover often depends on cloud type and geographical region. The indirect (includes only the cloud albedo effect with -0.17 W/m(exp 2)) and semidirect effects (-0.10 W/m(exp 2)) can be isolated on a regional scale, and they often have opposing forcing effects, leading to overall small forcing effects on a global scale. Although the surface albedo effects from aerosols are small (0.016 W/m(exp 2)), triggered feedbacks on top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing can be 10 times larger. Our results point out that each emission sector has varying impacts by geographical region. For example, the single sector most responsible for a net positive radiative forcing is the transportation sector in the United States, agricultural burning and transportation in Europe, and the domestic emission sector in Asia. These sectors are attractive mitigation targets.

Bauer, Susanne E.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Fabrication and Testing of a Thin-Film Heat Flux Sensor for a Stirling Convertor

The NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has been testing high efficiency free-piston Stirling convertors for potential use in radioisotope power systems since 1999. Stirling convertors are being operated for many years to demonstrate a radioisotope power system capable of providing reliable power for potential multi-year missions. Techniques used to monitor the convertors for change in performance include measurements of temperature, pressure, energy addition, and energy rejection. Micro-porous bulk insulation is used in the Stirling convertor test set up to minimize the loss of thermal energy from the electric heat source to the environment. The insulation is characterized before extended operation, enabling correlation of the net thermal energy addition to the convertor. Aging microporous bulk insulation changes insulation efficiency, introducing errors in the correlation for net thermal energy addition. A thin-mm heat flux sensor was designed and fabricated to directly measure the net thermal energy addition to the Stirling convertor. The fabrication techniques include slip casting and using Physical Vapor Deposition (PVD). One micron thick noble metal thermocouples measure temperature on the surface of an Alumina ceramic disc and heat flux is calculated. Fabrication, integration, and test results of a thin film heat flux sensor are presented.

Wilson, Scott D.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Computational Methodology for Simulating Thermal Loss Testing of the Advanced Stirling Convertor

Convertor and generator testing is carried out in tests designed to characterize convertor performance when subjected to environments intended to simulate launch and space conditions. The value of net heat input must be known in order to calculate convertor efficiency and to validate convertor performance. Specially designed test hardware was used to verify and validate a two step methodology for the prediction of net heat input. This lessons learned from these simulations have been applied to previous convertor simulations. As heat is supplied to the convertors, electric power is produced and measured. Net heat input to the convertor is one parameter that will contribute to the calculation of efficiency. This parameter is not measured directly. Insulation Loss. Determine the current status of the thermal conductivity of the micro-porous insulation. - Match heat source and hot end temperatures. - Match temperature difference across Kaowool insulation

Reid, Terry V.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Overview of Heat Addition and Efficiency Predictions for an Advanced Stirling Convertor

Past methods of predicting net heat input needed to be validated. Validation effort pursued with several paths including improving model inputs, using test hardware to provide validation data, and validating high fidelity models. Validation test hardware provided direct measurement of net heat input for comparison to predicted values. Predicted value of net heat input was 1.7 percent less than measured value and initial calculations of measurement uncertainty were 2.1 percent (under review). Lessons learned during validation effort were incorporated into convertor modeling approach which improved predictions of convertor efficiency.

Wilson, Scott D.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Advanced Materials and Fabrication Techniques for the Orion Attitude Control Motor

Rhenium, with its high melting temperature, excellent elevated temperature properties, and lack of a ductile-to-brittle transition temperature (DBTT), is ideally suited for the hot gas components of the ACM (Attitude Control Motor), and other high-temperature applications. However, the high cost of rhenium makes fabricating these components using conventional fabrication techniques prohibitive. Therefore, near-net-shape forming techniques were investigated for producing cost-effective rhenium and rhenium alloy components for the ACM and other propulsion applications. During this investigation, electrochemical forming (EL-Form ) techniques were evaluated for producing the hot gas components. The investigation focused on demonstrating that EL-Form processing techniques could be used to produce the ACM flow distributor. Once the EL-Form processing techniques were established, a representative rhenium flow distributor was fabricated, and samples were harvested for material properties testing at both room and elevated temperatures. As a lower cost and lighter weight alternative to an all-rhenium component, rhenium- coated graphite and carbon-carbon were also evaluated. The rhenium-coated components were thermal-cycle tested to verify that they could withstand the expected thermal loads during service. High-temperature electroforming is based on electrochemical deposition of compact layers of metals onto a mandrel of the desired shape. Mandrels used for electro-deposition of near-net shaped parts are generally fabricated from high-density graphite. The graphite mandrel is easily machined and does not react with the molten electrolyte. For near-net shape components, the inner surface of the electroformed part replicates the polished graphite mandrel. During processing, the mandrel itself becomes the cathode, and scrap or refined refractory metal is the anode. Refractory metal atoms from the anode material are ionized in the molten electrolytic solution, and are deposited onto the cathodic mandrel by electrochemical reduction. Rotation of the mandrel ensures uniform distribution of refractory material. The EL-Form process allows for manufacturing in an inert atmosphere with deposition rates from 0.0004 to 0.002 in./h (10.2 to 50.8 m/h). Thicknesses typically range from microns to greater than 0.5 in. (13 mm). The refractory component produced is fabricated, dependably, to within one micron of the desired tolerances with no shrinkage or distortion as in other refractory metal manufacture techniques. The electroforming process has been used to produce solid, nonporous deposits of rhenium, iridium, niobium, tungsten, and their alloys.

Gorti, Sridhar↗
NASA NTRS2011

Stardust-NExT, Deep Impact, and the Accelerating Spin of 9P/Tempel 1

The evolution of the spin rate of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 through two perihelion passages (in 2000 and 2005) is determined from 1922 Earth-based observations taken over a period of 13 year as part of a World-Wide observing campaign and from 2888 observations taken over a period of 50 days from the Deep Impact spacecraft. We determine the following sidereal spin rates (periods): 209.023 +/- 0.025deg/dy (41.335 0.005 h) prior to the 2000 perihelion passage, 210.448 +/- 0.016deg/dy (41.055 +/- 0.003 h) for the interval between the 2000 and 2005 perihelion passages, 211.856 +/- 0.030deg/dy (40.783 +/- 0.006 h) from Deep Impact photometry just prior to the 2005 perihelion passage, and 211.625 +/- 0.012deg/dy (40.827 +/- 0.002 h) in the interval 2006-2010 following the 2005 perihelion passage. The period decreased by 16.8 +/- 0.3 min during the 2000 passage and by 13.7 +/- 0.2 min during the 2005 passage suggesting a secular decrease in the net torque. The change in spin rate is asymmetric with respect to perihelion with the maximum net torque being applied on approach to perihelion. The Deep Impact data alone show that the spin rate was increasing at a rate of 0.024 +/- 0.003deg/dy/dy at JD2453530.60510 (i.e., 25.134 dy before impact), which provides independent confirmation of the change seen in the Earth-based observations. The rotational phase of the nucleus at times before and after each perihelion and at the Deep Impact encounter is estimated based on the Thomas et al. (Thomas et al. [2007]. Icarus 187, 4-15) pole and longitude system. The possibility of a 180deg error in the rotational phase is assessed and found to be significant. Analytical and physical modeling of the behavior of the spin rate through of each perihelion is presented and used as a basis to predict the rotational state of the nucleus at the time of the nominal (i.e., prior to February 2010) Stardust-NExT encounter on 2011 February 14 at 20:42. We find that a net torque in the range of 0.3-2.5 x 10(exp 7) kg/sq m/sq s acts on the nucleus during perihelion passage. The spin rate initially slows down on approach to perihelion and then passes through a minimum. It then accelerates rapidly as it passes through perihelion eventually reaching a maximum post-perihelion. It then decreases to a stable value as the nucleus moves away from the Sun. We find that the pole direction is unlikely to precess by more than approx. 1deg per perihelion passage. The trend of the period with time and the fact that the modeled peak torque occurs before perihelion are in agreement with published accounts of trends in water production rate and suggests that widespread H2O out-gassing from the surface is largely responsible for the observed spin-up.

Belton, Michael J. S.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Global Air Quality and Climate

Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O3 and SOA.

ozone↗
NASA NTRS2013

Forest Cover Associated with Improved Child Health and Nutrition: Evidence from the Malawi Demographic and Health Survey and Satellite Data

Healthy forests provide human communities with a host of important ecosystem services, including the provision of food, clean water, fuel, and natural medicines. Yet globally, about 13 million hectares of forests are lost every year, with the biggest losses in Africa and South America. As biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation due to deforestation continue at unprecedented rates, with concomitant loss of ecosystem services, impacts on human health remain poorly understood. Here, we use data from the 2010 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey, linked with satellite remote sensing data on forest cover, to explore and better understand this relationship. Our analysis finds that forest cover is associated with improved health and nutrition outcomes among children in Malawi. Children living in areas with net forest cover loss between 2000 and 2010 were 19% less likely to have a diverse diet and 29% less likely to consume vitamin A-rich foods than children living in areas with no net change in forest cover. Conversely, children living in communities with higher percentages of forest cover were more likely to consume vitamin A-rich foods and less likely to experience diarrhea. Net gain in forest cover over the 10-year period was associated with a 34% decrease in the odds of children experiencing diarrhea (P5.002). Given that our analysis relied on observational data and that there were potential unknown factors for which we could not account, these preliminary findings demonstrate only associations, not causal relationships, between forest cover and child health and nutrition outcomes. However, the findings raise concerns about the potential short- and long-term impacts of ongoing deforestation and ecosystem degradation on community health in Malawi, and they suggest that preventing forest loss and maintaining the ecosystems services of forests are important factors in improving human health and nutrition outcomes.

malawi↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of Contrail Reduction Strategies Based on Environmental and Operational Costs

This paper evaluates a set of contrail reduction strategies based on environmental and operational costs. A linear climate model was first used to convert climate effects of carbon dioxide emissions and aircraft contrails to changes in Absolute Global Temperature Potential, a metric that measures the mean surface temperature change due to aircraft emissions and persistent contrail formations. The concept of social cost of carbon and the carbon auction price from recent California's cap-and-trade system were then used to relate the carbon dioxide emissions and contrail formations to an environmental cost index. The strategy for contrail reduction is based on minimizing contrail formations by altering the aircraft's cruising altitude. The strategy uses a user-defined factor to trade off between contrail reduction and additional fuel burn and carbon dioxide emissions. A higher value of tradeoff factor results in more contrail reduction but also more fuel burn and carbon emissions. The strategy is considered favorable when the net environmental cost benefit exceeds the operational cost. The results show how the net environmental benefit varies with different decision-making time-horizon and different carbon cost. The cost models provide a guidance to select the trade-off factor that will result in the most net environmental benefit.

social cost of carbon↗