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At least 631 records · Page 35

Model-Based Verification and Validation of Spacecraft Avionics

Verification and Validation (V&V) at JPL is traditionally performed on flight or flight-like hardware running flight software. For some time, the complexity of avionics has increased exponentially while the time allocated for system integration and associated V&V testing has remained fixed. There is an increasing need to perform comprehensive system level V&V using modeling and simulation, and to use scarce hardware testing time to validate models; the norm for thermal and structural V&V for some time. Our approach extends model-based V&V to electronics and software through functional and structural models implemented in SysML. We develop component models of electronics and software that are validated by comparison with test results from actual equipment. The models are then simulated enabling a more complete set of test cases than possible on flight hardware. SysML simulations provide access and control of internal nodes that may not be available in physical systems. This is particularly helpful in testing fault protection behaviors when injecting faults is either not possible or potentially damaging to the hardware. We can also model both hardware and software behaviors in SysML, which allows us to simulate hardware and software interactions. With an integrated model and simulation capability we can evaluate the hardware and software interactions and identify problems sooner. The primary missing piece is validating SysML model correctness against hardware; this experiment demonstrated such an approach is possible.

MBV&V↗

The Genesis Mission: Contamination Control and Curation

The Genesis mission, launched in August 2001, is collecting samples of the solar wind and will return to Earth in 2004. Genesis can be viewed as the most fundamental of NASA's sample return missions because it is expected to provide insight into the initial elemental and isotopic composition of the solar nebula from which all other planetary objects formed. The data from this mission will have a large impact on understanding the origins and diversity of planetary materials. The collectors consist of clean, pure materials into which the solar wind will imbed. Science and engineering issues such as bulk purity, cleanliness, retention of solar wind, and ability to withstand launch and entry drove material choices. Most of the collector materials are installed on array frames that are deployed from a clean science canister. Two of the arrays are continuously exposed for collecting the bulk solar wind; the other three are only exposed during specific solar wind regimes as measured by ion and electron monitors. Other materials are housed as targets at the focal point of an electrostatic mirror, or "concentrator", designed to enhance the flux of specific solar wind species. Johnson Space Center (JSC) has two principal responsibilities for the Genesis mission: contamination control and curation. Precise and accurate measurements of the composition of the solar atoms require that the collector materials be extremely clean and well characterized before launch and during the mission. Early involvement of JSC curation personnel in concept development resulted in a mission designed to minimize contaminants from the spacecraft and operations. A major goal of the Genesis mission is to provide a reservoir of materials for the 21 51 century. When the collector materials are returned to Earth, they must be handled in a clean manner and their condition well documented. Information gained in preliminary examination of the arrays and detailed surveys of each collector will be used to guide sample allocations to the scientific community. Samples allocated for analysis are likely to be small sections of individual collectors, therefore subdividing the materials must take place in a clean, well characterized way. A major focus of current research at JSC includes identifying and characterizing the contamination, waste, and alteration of the sample when using different subdividing, transport, and storage techniques and developing protocols for reducing their impact on the scientific integrity of the mission.

Stansbery, E. K.↗

The MSP 2001 Mars Environmental Compatibility Assessment (MECA)

A chemical analysis of soil-water mixtures and the first microscopic images of martian soil will be among the results to be returned by the Mars Environmental Compatibility Assessment (MECA) payload on the Mars Surveyor Program 2001 Lander. Sponsored by the Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS) enterprise, MECA's primary goal is to evaluate potential geochemical and environmental hazards that may confront future martian explorers, and to guide HEDS scientists in the development of high fidelity Mars soil simulants. As a survey of soil properties, the MECA data set will also be rich in information relevant to basic geology, paleoclimate, and exobiology. The integrated MECA payload contains a wet-chemistry laboratory, a microscopy station, an electrometer to characterize the electrostatics of the soil and its environment, and arrays of material patches to study the abrasive and adhesive properties of soil grains. MECA is allocated a mass of 10 kg and a peak power usage of 15 W within an enclosure of 35 x 25 x 15 cm. The Wet Chemistry Laboratory (WCL) consists of four identical cells that will accept samples from surface and subsurface regions accessible to the Lander's robotic arm, mix them with water, and perform extensive analysis of the solution. Ion-selective electrodes and related sensors will evaluate total dissolved solids, redox potential, pH, and the concentration of many soluble ions and gases. Cyclic voltammetry will address oxidants, and anodic stripping voltammetry will probe potentially hazardous trace metals. MECA's microscopy station combines optical and atomic-force microscopy (AFM) in a controlled illumination environment to image dust and soil particles from millimeters to nanometers in size. Careful selection of substrates and an abrasion tool allows experimental study of size distribution, adhesion, abrasion, hardness, color, shape, aggregation, magnetic and other properties. Mounted on the end of the robot arm, MECA's electrometer consists of four types of sensors: an electric field meter, several triboelectricity monitors, an ion gauge, and a thermometer. Tempered only by ultra-violet- light-induced ions and a low-voltage break-down threshold, the dry, cold, dusty martian environment presents an imposing electrostatic hazard to both robots and humans. In addition, the electrostatic environment is key to transport of dust and, consequently, martian meteorology. MECA will also observe natural dust accumulation on engineering materials. Viewed with the robot arm camera, the abrasion and adhesion plates are strategically placed to allow direct observation of the inter-action between materials and soils on a macroscopic scale. Materials of graded hardness are placed directly under the robot arm scoop to sense wear and soil hardness. A second array, placed on the lander deck, is deployed after the dust plume of landing has settled. It can be manipulated in a primitive fashion by the arm, first having dirt deposited on it from the scoop and subsequently shaken clean. Dust accumulation as a function of conductivity, magnetic field strength, and other parameters will be explored. The MECA instruments described above will assess potential hazards that the Martian soil might present to human explorers and their equipment. In addition, MECA will provide information on the composition of ancient surface water environments, observing microscopic evidence of geological (and biological?) processes, inferring soil and dust transport, comminution and weathering mechanisms, and characterizing soil horizons that might be encountered during excavation. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Hecht, M. H.↗

Developing Advanced Support Technologies for Planetary Exploration Missions

The United States Vision for Space Exploration calls for sending robots and humans to explore the Earth s moon, the planet Mars, and beyond. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing a set of design reference missions that will provide further detail to these plans. Lunar missions are expected to provide a stepping stone, through operational research and evaluation, in developing the knowledge base necessary to send crews on long duration missions to Mars and other distant destinations. The NASA Exploration Systems Directorate (ExSD), in its program of bioastronautics research, manages the development of technologies that maintain human life, health, and performance in space. Using a systems engineering process and risk management methods, ExSD s Human Support Systems (HSS) Program selects and performs research and technology development in several critical areas and transfers the results of its efforts to NASA exploration mission/systems development programs in the form of developed technologies and new knowledge about the capabilities and constraints of systems required to support human existence beyond Low Earth Orbit. HSS efforts include the areas of advanced environmental monitoring and control, extravehicular activity, food technologies, life support systems, space human factors engineering, and systems integration of all these elements. The HSS Program provides a structured set of deliverable products to meet the needs of exploration programs. these products reduce the gaps that exist in our knowledge of and capabilities for human support for long duration, remote space missions. They also reduce the performance gap between the efficiency of current space systems and the greater efficiency that must be achieved to make human planetary exploration missions economically and logistically feasible. In conducting this research and technology development program, it is necessary for HSS technologists and program managers to develop a common currency for decision making and the allocation of funding. A high level assessment is made of both the knowledge gaps and the system performance gaps across the program s technical project portfolio. This allows decision making that assures proper emphasis areas and provides a key measure of annual technological progress, as exploration mission plans continue to mature.

Berdich, Debra P.↗

Developing Advanced Human Support Technologies for Planetary Exploration Missions

The United States Vision for Space Exploration calls for sending robots and humans to explore the Earth's moon, the planet Mars, and beyond. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing a set of design reference missions that will provide further detail to these plans. Lunar missions are expected to provide a stepping stone, through operational research and evaluation, in developing the knowledge base necessary to send crews on long duration missions to Mars and other distant destinations. The NASA Exploration Systems Directorate (ExSD), in its program of bioastronautics research, manages the development of technologies that maintain human life, health, and performance in space. Using a system engineering process and risk management methods, ExSD's Human Support Systems (HSS) Program selects and performs research and technology development in several critical areas and transfers the results of its efforts to NASA exploration mission/systems development programs in the form of developed technologies and new knowledge about the capabilities and constraints of systems required to support human existence beyond Low Earth Orbit. HSS efforts include the areas of advanced environmental monitoring and control, extravehicular activity, food technologies, life support systems, space human factors engineering, and systems integration of all these elements. The HSS Program provides a structured set of deliverable products to meet the needs of exploration programs. These products reduce the gaps that exist in our knowledge of and capabilities for human support for long duration, remote space missions. They also reduce the performance gap between the efficiency of current space systems and the greater efficiency that must be achieved to make human planetary exploration missions economically and logistically feasible. In conducting this research and technology development program, it is necessary for HSS technologists and program managers to develop a common currency for decision making and the allocation of funding. A high level assessment is made of both the knowledge gaps and the system performance gaps across the program s technical project portfolio. This allows decision making that assures proper emphasis areas and provides a key measure of annual technological progress, as exploration mission plans continue to mature.

Berdich, Debra P.↗

Electronic neural network for dynamic resource allocation

A VLSI implementable neural network architecture for dynamic assignment is presented. The resource allocation problems involve assigning members of one set (e.g. resources) to those of another (e.g. consumers) such that the global 'cost' of the associations is minimized. The network consists of a matrix of sigmoidal processing elements (neurons), where the rows of the matrix represent resources and columns represent consumers. Unlike previous neural implementations, however, association costs are applied directly to the neurons, reducing connectivity of the network to VLSI-compatible 0 (number of neurons). Each row (and column) has an additional neuron associated with it to independently oversee activations of all the neurons in each row (and each column), providing a programmable 'k-winner-take-all' function. This function simultaneously enforces blocking (excitatory/inhibitory) constraints during convergence to control the number of active elements in each row and column within desired boundary conditions. Simulations show that the network, when implemented in fully parallel VLSI hardware, offers optimal (or near-optimal) solutions within only a fraction of a millisecond, for problems up to 128 resources and 128 consumers, orders of magnitude faster than conventional computing or heuristic search methods.

Thakoor, A. P.↗

Microwave Driven Actuators Power Allocation and Distribution

Design, fabrication and test of a power allocation and distribution (PAD) network for microwave driven actuators is presented in this paper. Development of a circuit that would collect power from a rectenna array amplify and distribute the power to actuators was designed and fabricated for space application in an actuator array driven by a microwave. A P-SPICE model was constructed initially for data reduction purposes, and was followed by a working real-world model. A voltage up - converter (VUC) is used to amplify the voltage from the individual rectenna. The testing yielded a 26:1 voltage amplification ratio with input voltage at 9 volts and a measured output voltage 230VDC. Future work includes the miniaturization of the circuitry, the use of microwave remote control, and voltage amplification technology for each voltage source. The objective of this work is to develop a model system that will collect DC voltage from an array of rectenna and propagate the voltage to an array of actuators.

Forbes, Timothy↗

Restoration of peak vascular conductance after simulated microgravity by maximal exercise

We sought to determine if (i) peak vascular conductance of the calf was reduced following prolonged exposure to simulated microgravity, and (ii) if maximal cycle ergometry performed at the end of microgravity exposure stimulated a restoration of peak calf vascular conductance. To do this, peak vascular conductance of the calf was recorded following ischaemic plantar flexion exercise to fatigue in seven men after 16 days of head-down tilt (HDT) under two conditions: (i) after one bout of maximal supine cycle ergometry completed 24 h prior to performance of ischaemic plantar flexion exercise, and (ii) in a control (no cycle ergometry) condition. Following HDT, peak vascular conductance was reduced in the control condition (0.38 +/- 0.02 to 0.24 +/- 0.02 ml 100 ml-1 min-1 mmHg-1; P = 0.04), but was restored when subjects performed cycle ergometry (0.33 +/- 0.05 to 0.28 +/- 0.04 ml 100 ml-1 min-1 mmHg-1; P = 0.46). After HDT, time to fatigue during ischaemic plantar flexion exercise was not different from pre-HDT 24 h after performance of exhaustive cycle ergometry (120 +/- 24 vs. 122 +/- 19 s), but was decreased in the control condition (116 +/- 11 vs. 95 +/- 8 s; P = 0.07). These data suggest that a single bout of maximal exercise can provide a stimulus to restore peak vascular conductance and maintain time to fatigue during performance of ischaemic plantar flexion exercise.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

Successful Completion of the JWST OGSE2 Cryogenic Test at JSC Chamber-A While Managing Numerous Challenges

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Optical Telescope Element (OTE) assembly is the largest optically stable infrared-optimized telescope currently being manufactured and assembled, and scheduled for launch in 2018. The JWST OTE, including the primary mirrors, secondary mirror, and the Aft Optics Subsystems (AOS) are designed to be passively cooled and operate at near 45 degrees Kelvin. Due to the size of its large sunshield in relation to existing test facilities, JWST cannot be optically or thermally tested as a complete observatory-level system at flight temperatures. As a result, the telescope portion along with its instrument complement will be tested as a single unit very late in the program, and on the program schedule critical path. To mitigate schedule risks, a set of 'pathfinder' cryogenic tests will be performed to reduce program risks by demonstrating the optical testing capabilities of the facility, characterizing telescope thermal performance, and allowing project personnel to learn valuable testing lessons off-line. This paper describes the 'pathfinder' cryogenic test program, focusing on the recently completed second test in the series called the Optical Ground Support Equipment 2 (OGSE2) test. The JWST OGSE2 was successfully completed within the allocated project schedule while faced with numerous conflicting thermal requirements during cool-down to the final cryogenic operational temperatures, and during warm-up after the cryo-stable optical tests. The challenges include developing a pre-test cool-down and warm-up profiles without a reliable method to predict the thermal behaviors in a rarified helium environment, and managing the test article hardware safety driven by the project Limits and Constraints (L&C's). Furthermore, OGSE2 test included the time critical Aft Optics Subsystem (AOS), a part of the flight Optical Telescope Element that would need to be placed back in the overall telescope assembly integrations. The OGSE2 test requirements included the strict adherence of the project contamination controls due to the presence of the contamination sensitive flight optical elements. The test operations required close coordination of numerous personnel while they being exposed and trained for the 'final' combined OTE and instrument cryo-test in 2017. This paper will also encompass the OGSE2 thermal data look-back review.

JWST OGSE2 Cryogenic Test↗

Cabin Environment Physics Risk Model

This paper presents a Cabin Environment Physics Risk (CEPR) model that predicts the time for an initial failure of Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) functionality to propagate into a hazardous environment and trigger a loss-of-crew (LOC) event. This physics-of failure model allows a probabilistic risk assessment of a crewed spacecraft to account for the cabin environment, which can serve as a buffer to protect the crew during an abort from orbit and ultimately enable a safe return. The results of the CEPR model replace the assumption that failure of the crew critical ECLSS functionality causes LOC instantly, and provide a more accurate representation of the spacecraft's risk posture. The instant-LOC assumption is shown to be excessively conservative and, moreover, can impact the relative risk drivers identified for the spacecraft. This, in turn, could lead the design team to allocate mass for equipment to reduce overly conservative risk estimates in a suboptimal configuration, which inherently increases the overall risk to the crew. For example, available mass could be poorly used to add redundant ECLSS components that have a negligible benefit but appear to make the vehicle safer due to poor assumptions about the propagation time of ECLSS failures.

Risk↗

The Lightweight Integrated Solar Array and anTenna (LISA-T) - Big Power for Small Spacecraft

NASA is developing a space power system using lightweight, flexible photovoltaic devices originally developed for use here on Earth to provide low cost power for spacecraft. The Lightweight Integrated Solar Array and anTenna (LISA-T) is a launch-stowed, orbit-deployed array on which thin-film photovoltaic and antenna elements are embedded. The LISA-T system is deployable, building upon NASA's expertise in developing thin-film deployable solar sails such the one being developed for the Near Earth Asteroid Scout project which will fly in 2018. One of the biggest challenges for the NEA Scout, and most other spacecraft, is power. There simply isn't enough of it available, thus limiting the range of operation of the spacecraft from the Sun (due to the small surface area available for using solar cells), the range of operation from the Earth (low available power with inherently small antenna sizes tightly constrain the bandwidth for communication), and the science (you can only power so many instruments with limited power). The LISA-T has the potential to mitigate each of these limitations. Inherently, small satellites are limited in surface area, volume, and mass allocation; driving competition between their need for power and robust communications with the requirements of the science or engineering payload they are developed to fly. LISA-T is addressing this issue, deploying large-area arrays from a reduced volume and mass envelope - greatly enhancing power generation and communications capabilities of small spacecraft and CubeSats. The problem is that these CubeSats can usually only generate between 7 watts and 50 watts of power. The power that can be generated by the LISA-T ranges from tens of watts to several hundred watts. A matrix of options are in development, including planar (pointed) and omnidirectional (non-pointed) arrays. The former is seeking the highest performance possible while the latter is seeking GN&C (Guidance, Navigation and Control) simplicity. In both cases, power generation ranges from tens of watts to several hundred with an expected specific power greater than 250 watts per kilogram and a stowed power density greater than 200 kilowatts per cubic meter. Options for leveraging both high performance, 'typical cost' triple junction thin-film solar cells as well as moderate performance, low cost cells are being developed. Alongside, both UHF (ultra high frequency) and S-band antennas are being integrated into the array to move their space claim away from the spacecraft and open the door for omnidirectional communications and electronically steered phase arrays.

Johnson, Les↗

Humans to Mars, but How Many? Using Training Requirements Modeling to Inform Crew Size

Missions to Mars will differ from previous human spaceflight missions in that the onboard crew of astronauts will be required to operate in an Earth-independent manner due to the long communication delays. Without a systematic, repeatable process to determine the number and composition of crew necessary to successfully accomplish these missions, NASA increases the risk that crew sizes may be too small to meet primary mission objectives under nominal conditions and, more consequentially, that crewmembers may not have the expertise needed to successfully respond to unforeseen failures without the real-time expertise of the Mission Control Central (MCC) team NASA currently relies upon. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) is developing a methodology for assessing the trade space of factors that affect the number of crew for future missions. This methodology includes the consideration of results from three human performance models developed using the Improved Performance Research and Integration Tool (IMPRINT) modeling platform as well as a custom-built model on expertise trained within the crew. The IMPRINT results will be presented in the modeling and simulation sub-tag. Here we present results of a model based on NASA’s crew qualification and responsibility matrix (CQRM), a tool used to identify the crew qualifications for each area of responsibility (operation, system, and payload) for a mission. The model outputs an optimized allocation of training assignments along with a flight-assigned CQRM that can be used to consider the expertise that can be trained within a crew of a given size. We discuss the CQRM model result implications on the trade space for Mars mission crew size.

Mars↗

Humans to Mars, but How Many? Using Training Requirements Modeling to Inform Crew Size

Missions to Mars will differ from previous human spaceflight missions in that the onboard crew of astronauts will be required to operate in an Earth-independent manner due to the long communication delays. Without a systematic, repeatable process to determine the number and composition of crew necessary to successfully accomplish these missions, NASA increases the risk that crew sizes may be too small to meet primary mission objectives under nominal conditions and, more consequentially, that crewmembers may not have the expertise needed to successfully respond to unforeseen failures without the real-time expertise of the Mission Control Central (MCC) team NASA currently relies upon. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) is developing a methodology for assessing the trade space of factors that affect the number of crew for future missions. This methodology includes the consideration of results from three human performance models developed using the Improved Performance Research and Integration Tool (IMPRINT) modeling platform as well as a custom-built model on expertise trained within the crew. The IMPRINT results will be presented in the modeling and simulation sub-tag. Here we present results of a model based on NASA’s crew qualification and responsibility matrix (CQRM), a tool used to identify the crew qualifications for each area of responsibility (operation, system, and payload) for a mission. The model outputs an optimized allocation of training assignments along with a flight-assigned CQRM that can be used to consider the expertise that can be trained within a crew of a given size. We discuss the CQRM model result implications on the trade space for Mars mission crew size.

Mars↗

A General Framework for Error-controlled Unstructured Scientific Data Compression

Data compression plays a key role in reducing storage and I/O costs. Traditional lossy methods primarily target data on rectilinear grids and cannot leverage the spatial coherence in unstructured mesh data, leading to suboptimal compression ratios. We present a multi-component, error-bounded compression framework designed to enhance the compression of floating-point unstructured mesh data, which is common in scientific applications. Our approach involves interpolating mesh data onto a rectilinear grid and then separately compressing the grid interpolation and the interpolation residuals. This method is general, independent of mesh types and typologies, and can be seamlessly integrated with existing lossy compressors for improved performance. We evaluated our framework across twelve variables from two synthetic datasets and two real-world simulation datasets. The results indicate that the multi-component framework consistently outperforms state-of-the-art lossy compressors on unstructured data, achieving, on average, a 2.3 − 3.5× improvement in compression ratios, with error bounds ranging from 1 × 10 the −6 to 1×10−2. We further investigate impact of hyperparameters, such as grid spacing and error allocation, to deliver optimal compression ratios in diverse datasets.

Gong, Qian↗

Intelligent neuroprocessors for in-situ launch vehicle propulsion systems health management

Efficacy of existing on-board propulsion systems health management systems (HMS) are severely impacted by computational limitations (e.g., low sampling rates); paradigmatic limitations (e.g., low-fidelity logic/parameter redlining only, false alarms due to noisy/corrupted sensor signatures, preprogrammed diagnostics only); and telemetry bandwidth limitations on space/ground interactions. Ultra-compact/light, adaptive neural networks with massively parallel, asynchronous, fast reconfigurable and fault-tolerant information processing properties have already demonstrated significant potential for inflight diagnostic analyses and resource allocation with reduced ground dependence. In particular, they can automatically exploit correlation effects across multiple sensor streams (plume analyzer, flow meters, vibration detectors, etc.) so as to detect anomaly signatures that cannot be determined from the exploitation of single sensor. Furthermore, neural networks have already demonstrated the potential for impacting real-time fault recovery in vehicle subsystems by adaptively regulating combustion mixture/power subsystems and optimizing resource utilization under degraded conditions. A class of high-performance neuroprocessors, developed at JPL, that have demonstrated potential for next-generation HMS for a family of space transportation vehicles envisioned for the next few decades, including HLLV, NLS, and space shuttle is presented. Of fundamental interest are intelligent neuroprocessors for real-time plume analysis, optimizing combustion mixture-ratio, and feedback to hydraulic, pneumatic control systems. This class includes concurrently asynchronous reprogrammable, nonvolatile, analog neural processors with high speed, high bandwidth electronic/optical I/O interfaced, with special emphasis on NASA's unique requirements in terms of performance, reliability, ultra-high density ultra-compactness, ultra-light weight devices, radiation hardened devices, power stringency, and long life terms.

Gulati, S.↗

Analysis and Optimization of Test Plans for Advanced Exploration Systems Reliability and Supportability

Future crewed exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will operate farther from Earth and be logistically isolated for longer than any previous human spaceflight mission. Under these conditions, supportability and reliability willbestronger drivers of mission mass and risk than they have been in the past. Items with high failure rates, or uncertain failure rates, can result in high spares mass requirements and/or high risk on deep space missions. Testing is a critical element of system development which provides the opportunity to identify and resolve design issues, defects, or other failure modes before they cause problems during a mission. Reliability growth programs can reduce failure rates by identifying and remove failure modes via design changes, and long-duration life testing can provide valuable data to reduce failure rate estimate uncertainty and verify (to some level of confidence) that components are as reliable as expected. Testing activities take time and resources, however, and must be incorporated into program plans in order to be fully effective. This paper presents an integrated reliability test plan analysis and optimization methodology, which has been used to inform Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Life Support Systems (LSS) ground test planning for future missions. The methodology determines the optimal number of test units to purchase and allocation of test time –split between reliability growth and uncertainty reduction testing –across a given set of items in order to minimize spares mass for a given mission under constraints on total test cost and schedule. Model outputs also include expected spares mass after testing and the expected number of modifications or refurbishments during testing, both of which can inform program planning. Discussion of the model, conclusions, and future work are also presented.

Testing↗

Improving Multi-Model Trajectory Simulation Estimators using Model Selection and Tuning

Multi-model Monte Carlo methods have been demonstrated to be an efficient and accurate alternative to standard Monte Carlo (MC) in the model-based propagation of uncertainty in entry, descent, and landing (EDL) applications. These multi-model MC methods fuse predictions from low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity EDL model of interest to produce unbiased statistics with a fraction of the computational cost. The accuracy and efficiency of the multi-model MC methods are dependent upon the magnitude of correlations of the low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity model, but also upon the correlation among the low-fidelity models, and their relative computational cost. Because of this layer of complexity, the question of how to optimally select the set of low-fidelity models has remained open. In this work, methods for optimal model construction and tuning are investigated as a means to increase the speed and precision of trajectory simulation for EDL. Specifically, the focus is on the inclusion of low-fidelity model tuning within the sample allocation optimization that accompanies multi-model MC methods. Preliminary results indicate that low-fidelity model tuning can significantly improve efficiency and precision of trajectory simulations and provide an increased edge to multi-model MC methods when compared to standard MC. The challenges and potential benefits to exploring a fully iterative and comprehensive optimization strategy in future work are highlighted.

uncertainty quantification↗

Analysis and Optimization of Test Plans for Advanced Exploration Systems Reliability and Supportability

Future crewed exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will operate farther from Earth and be logistically isolated for longer than any previous human spaceflight mission. Under these conditions, supportability and reliability willbestronger drivers of mission mass and risk than they have been in the past. Items with high failure rates, or uncertain failure rates, can result in high spares mass requirements and/or high risk on deep space missions. Testing is a critical element of system development which provides the opportunity to identify and resolve design issues, defects, or other failure modes before they cause problems during a mission. Reliability growth programs can reduce failure rates by identifying and remove failure modes via design changes, and long-duration life testing can provide valuable data to reduce failure rate estimate uncertainty and verify (to some level of confidence) that components are as reliable as expected. Testing activities take time and resources, however, and must be incorporated into program plans in order to be fully effective. This paper presents an integrated reliability test plan analysis and optimization methodology, which has been used to inform Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Life Support Systems (LSS) ground test planning for future missions. The methodology determines the optimal number of test units to purchase and allocation of test time –split between reliability growth and uncertainty reduction testing –across a given set of items in order to minimize spares mass for a given mission under constraints on total test cost and schedule. Model outputs also include expected spares mass after testing and the expected number of modifications or refurbishments during testing, both of which can inform program planning. Discussion of the model, conclusions, and future work are also presented.

Testing↗