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NASA NTRS2015

Model-Based Systems Engineering in Concurrent Engineering Centers

Concurrent Engineering Centers (CECs) are specialized facilities with a goal of generating and maturing engineering designs by enabling rapid design iterations. This is accomplished by co-locating a team of experts (either physically or virtually) in a room with a narrow design goal and a limited timeline of a week or less. The systems engineer uses a model of the system to capture the relevant interfaces and manage the overall architecture. A single model that integrates other design information and modeling allows the entire team to visualize the concurrent activity and identify conflicts more efficiently, potentially resulting in a systems model that will continue to be used throughout the project lifecycle. Performing systems engineering using such a system model is the definition of model-based systems engineering (MBSE); therefore, CECs evolving their approach to incorporate advances in MBSE are more successful in reducing time and cost needed to meet study goals. This paper surveys space mission CECs that are in the middle of this evolution, and the authors share their experiences in order to promote discussion within the community.

MODEL↗

NASA NTRS2016

Ground-Level Digital Terrain Model (DTM) Construction from Tandem-X InSAR Data and Worldview Stereo-Photogrammetric Images

The ground-level digital elevation model (DEM) or digital terrain model (DTM) information are invaluable for environmental modeling, such as water dynamics in forests, canopy height, forest biomass, carbon estimation, etc. We propose to extract the DTM over forested areas from the combination of interferometric complex coherence from single-pass TanDEM-X (TDX) data at HH polarization and Digital Surface Model (DSM) derived from high-resolution WorldView (WV) image pair by means of random volume over ground (RVoG) model. The RVoG model is a widely and successfully used model for polarimetric SAR interferometry (Pol-InSAR) technique for vertical forest structure parameter retrieval [1][2][3][4]. The ground-level DEM have been obtained by complex volume decorrelation in the RVoG model with the DSM using stereo-photogrammetric technique. Finally, the airborne lidar data were used to validate the ground-level DEM and forest canopy height results.

Lee, Seung-Kuk↗

DOE OSTI2023

Physics-informed Data-driven Degradation and Prognostic For Hydropower System

The hydropower system is a cyber-physical system, and the industry is experiencing high operation and maintenance (O&M) costs along with increasing unplanned outages, primarily due to aging equipment and new asset loading patterns. Current (O&M) practices in asset management are predominantly reactive rather than predictive and systematic. To address these challenges, a proposed physics-informed data-driven degradation model aims to simulate the health of components in various environments. Its purpose is to accurately characterize wear and fatigue in the pilot components of hydropower systems. Additionally, the model provides informed confidence in prognostic predictions concerning asset degradation and remaining life.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Loss of Coolant High Burnup (LOC-HBu) Program

LOC-HBu is a joint experimental program (JEEP) operating within the Nuclear Energy Agency’s (NEA’s) framework for irradiation experiments II (FIDES-II). LOC-HBu is dedicated to the understanding of light water reactor (LWR) fuel performance at high burnup under loss of coolant accident (LOCA) conditions. LOC-HBu aims to support burnup extension needs by addressing identified R&D priorities to achieve an improved understanding of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) of HBu fuel during LOCA events. The need for such experiments was identified in the United States by the Fuel Performance Testing Technical Expert Group (FPTTEG) under the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)’s Collaborative Research on Advanced Fuel Technologies (CRAFT) framework. A combined in-pile and furnace testing program plan was developed by researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) which was reviewed and approved by the FPTTEG Combined TREAT-LOC and SATS LOCA Experiment Plan. The first 4 tests identified in this plan are being put forward by the U.S. Department of Energy (U.S. DOE) and INL for inclusion in the FIDES-II second triannual work period. The data produced under this plan will be used to further validate and confirm existing models and inform future R&D and model development. The experimental program was specifically developed to address data gaps and opportunities identified via detailed review of the existing public knowledge base on LOCA FFRD, as well as reviewing specific experimental development activities regarding prototypic LOCA conditions for light-water reactor (LWR) systems. The program will systematically investigate the impacts of prototypic HBu fuel/cladding thermomechanical behaviors under postulated LWR LOCA conditions not yet fully investigated. These conditions correspond with prototypic decay-energy heatup (DEH) and stored-energy heatup (SEH) conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Knowledge-informed deep learning for hydrological model calibration: an application to Coal Creek Watershed in Colorado

Abstract. Deep learning (DL)-assisted inverse mapping has shown promise in hydrological model calibration by directly estimating parameters from observations. However, the increasing computational demand for running the state-of-the-art hydrological model limits sufficient ensemble runs for its calibration. In this work, we present a novel knowledge-informed deep learning method that can efficiently conduct the calibration using a few hundred realizations. The method involves two steps. First, we determine decisive model parameters from a complete parameter set based on the mutual information (MI) between model responses and each parameter computed by a limited number of realizations (∼50). Second, we perform more ensemble runs (e.g., several hundred) to generate the training sets for the inverse mapping, which selects informative model responses for estimating each parameter using MI-based parameter sensitivity. We applied this new DL-based method to calibrate a process-based integrated hydrological model, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), at Coal Creek Watershed, CO. The calibration is performed against observed stream discharge (Q) and remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) from the water year 2017 to 2019. Preliminary MI analysis on 50 realizations resulted in a down-selection of 7 out of 14 ATS model parameters. Then, we performed a complete MI analysis on 396 realizations and constructed the inverse mapping from informative responses to each of the selected parameters using a deep neural network. Compared with calibration using observations covering all time steps, the new inverse mapping improves parameter estimations, thus enhancing the performance of ATS forward model runs. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of streamflow predictions increases from 0.53 to 0.8 when calibrating against Q alone. Using ET observations, on the other hand, does not show much improvement on the performance of ATS modeling mainly due to both the uncertainty of the remotely sensed product and the insufficient coverage of the model ET ensemble in capturing the observation. By using observed Q only, we further performed a multiyear analysis and show that Q is best simulated (NSE > 0.8) by including in the calibration the dry-year flow dynamics that show more sensitivity to subsurface characteristics than the other wet years. Moreover, when continuing the forward runs till the end of 2021, the calibrated models show similar simulation performances during this evaluation period as the calibration period, demonstrating the ability of the estimated parameters in capturing climate sensitivity. Our success highlights the importance of leveraging data-driven knowledge in DL-assisted hydrological model calibration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Projecting the number of new HIV infections to formulate the "Getting to Zero" strategy in Illinois, USA

Objectives: Getting to Zero (GTZ) initiatives focus on expanding use of antiretroviral treatment (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to eliminate new HIV infections. Computational models help inform policies for implementation of ART and PrEP continuums. Such models, however, vary in their design, and may yield inconsistent predictions. Using multiple approaches can help assess the consistency in results obtained from varied modeling frameworks, and can inform optimal implementation strategies. Methods: A study using three different modeling approaches is conducted. Two approaches use statistical time series analysis techniques that incorporate temporal HIV incidence data. A third approach uses stochastic stimulation, conducted using an agent-based network model (ABNM). All three approaches are used to project HIV incidence among a key population, young Black MSM (YBMSM), over the course of the GTZ implementation period (2016-2030). Results: All three approaches suggest that simultaneously increasing PrEP and ART uptake is likely to be more effective than increasing only one, but increasing ART and PrEP by 20% points may not eliminate new HIV infections among YBMSM. The results further suggest that a 20% increase in ART is likely to be more effective than a 20% increase in PrEP. All three methods consistently project that increasing ART and PrEP by 30% simultaneously can help reach GTZ goals. Conclusions: Increasing PrEP and ART uptake by about 30% might be necessary to accomplish GTZ goals. Such scale-up may require addressing psychosocial and structural barriers to engagement in HIV and PrEP care continuums. ABNMs and other flexible modeling approaches can be extended to examine specific interventions that address these barriers and may provide important data to guide the successful intervention implementation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A crystal plasticity model with an atomistically informed description of grain boundary sliding for improved predictions of deformation fields

Crystal plasticity (CP) is a powerful meso-scale technique for deformation modeling in polycrystalline materials. Crystal plasticity models typically do not include an explicit description of grain boundary (GB) sliding, which could lead to inaccurate predictions of strain distributions, especially in the vicinity of GBs. In the present study, a CP model is developed that includes GB sliding as an additional deformation mechanism and models the interaction between slip and GB sliding. Atomistic simulations are used to formulate the constitutive model for GB sliding and its interaction with incident slip. The deformation fields and structure of the GBs are obtained directly from experimental characterization and are faithfully reproduced as bicrystal systems for molecular dynamics simulations. The GBs are modeled as random-type (non-coincidence, asymmetrical) boundaries as observed from experimental data. The underlying atomistic-scale mechanism for pure sliding of random GBs was found to be analogous to fluid-flow. The interaction between incident slip and a sliding GB caused local increases in stress concentration, which further led to a momentary increase in the local sliding rate. The displacement profiles at the sliding GBs computed from the CP model with sliding accommodation are 38% more accurate than the baseline CP model as quantified by the mean squared error between the simulations and experiment. Here these results help improve the sophistication and accuracy of deformation modeling by including physics-based descriptions for GB sliding and its interaction with slip, eventually leading to more reliable predictions of micromechanical quantities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Novel Physiologically Based Model of Creatinine Renal Disposition to Integrate Current Knowledge of Systems Parameters and Clinical Observations

Creatinine is the most common clinical biomarker of renal function. As a substrate for renal transporters, its secretion is susceptible to inhibition by drugs, resulting in transient increase in serum creatinine and false impression of damage to kidney. Novel physiologically based models for creatinine were developed here and (dis)qualified in a stepwise manner until consistency with clinical data. Data from a matrix of studies were integrated, including systems data (common to all models), proteomics‐informed in vitro – in vivo extrapolation of all relevant transporter clearances, exogenous administration of creatinine (to estimate endogenous synthesis rate), and inhibition of different renal transporters (11 perpetrator drugs considered for qualification during creatinine model development and verification on independent data sets). The proteomics‐informed bottom‐up approach resulted in the underprediction of creatinine renal secretion. Subsequently, creatinine‐trimethoprim clinical data were used to inform key model parameters in a reverse translation manner, highlighting best practices and challenges for middle‐out optimization of mechanistic models.

Scotcher, Daniel↗

DOE OSTI2024

The development of thermodynamically consistent and physics-informed equation-of-state model through machine learning

Ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations have become an important tool used in the construction of equations of state (EOS) tables for warm dense matter. Due to computational costs, only a limited number of system state conditions can be simulated, and the remaining EOS surface must be interpolated for use in radiation-hydrodynamic simulations of experiments. In this work, we develop a thermodynamically consistent EOS model that utilizes a physics-informed machine learning approach to implicitly learn the underlying Helmholtz free-energy from AIMD generated energies and pressures. The model, referred to as PIML-EOS, was trained and tested on warm dense polystyrene producing a fit within a 1% relative error for both energy and pressure and is shown to satisfy both the Maxwell and Gibbs–Duhem relations. In addition, we provide a path toward obtaining thermodynamic quantities, such as the total entropy and chemical potential (containing both ionic and electronic contributions), which are not available from current AIMD simulations.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physics-informed Machine Learning for Modeling Turbulence in Supernovae

Abstract Turbulence plays an important role in astrophysical phenomena, including core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe), but current simulations must rely on subgrid models, since direct numerical simulation is too expensive. Unfortunately, existing subgrid models are not sufficiently accurate. Recently, machine learning (ML) has shown an impressive predictive capability for calculating turbulence closure. We have developed a physics-informed convolutional neural network to preserve the realizability condition of the Reynolds stress that is necessary for accurate turbulent pressure prediction. The applicability of the ML subgrid model is tested here for magnetohydrodynamic turbulence in both the stationary and dynamic regimes. Our future goal is to utilize this ML methodology (available on GitHub) in the CCSN framework to investigate the effects of accurately modeled turbulence on the explosion of these stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Woven ceramic matrix composite surrogate model based on physics-informed recurrent neural network

A recurrent neural network (RNN) based surrogate model is developed to emulate the nonlinear constitutive behavior of woven ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) driven by matrix damage at multiple length scales. Physics-informed constraints are introduced into the surrogate model through regularization to ground the prediction in physics and improve its predictive capabilities. Training data is generated using the multiscale generalized method of cells (MSGMC) approach coupled with a matrix damage model. This coupling permits simulating the nonlinear behavior of woven CMCs based on constituent response at the micro-, meso-, and macroscales. The multiscale repeating unit cell is loaded under non-monotonic conditions including multiple load / unload cycles and tension / compression. The fiber volume fraction as well as the intra- and intertow void volume fractions are also varied in the generation of training data. Therefore, the RNN-based surrogate model is tasked with predicting, as a function of variable input strain sequence and fiber and void volume fractions, the resulting stress versus strain response while satisfying physical constraints such as positive semi-definiteness of the tangent stiffness matrix and linear elastic unloading. Further, the trained surrogate model effectively matches the stress versus strain response and successfully predicts the tangent modulus throughout the loading regime. Neural network based surrogate models can offer efficient alternatives to running computationally intensive multiscale material models to simulate the nonlinear response of large structural models. Therefore the presented work provides evidence towards the feasibility of developing, training, and running such models for CMCs with complex architectures, nonlinear multiaxial material response, and under non-monotonic loading conditions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of PV Module Connector Failures on Cost and Performance of Utility Scale Photovoltaic Systems

The reliability, cost and performance of electrical connectors are a concern in all types of electrical systems, and demands on connectors used on photovoltaic (PV) systems include that connectors maintain electrical conductivity and physical strength, endure ultraviolet sunlight and high ambient temperature, and resist moisture and chemical intrusion over a very long (>25 year) performance period. Connector failures increase operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and reduce plant production, but connector failure can also cause safety and liability problems, which are of greater concern. This work results from a three-year collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) under Agreements #39035 and #38531 "Connector Reliability Across the US Solar Sector." a multi-pronged investigation of PV connector health across the US (see https://energy.sandia.gov/pvconnectors/). This report presents derivation of a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) that models failure modes and frequencies (how often failure occurs), estimates O&M costs and lost production associated with connector failures, and then calculates the effect that PV module connectors can have on Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). The model is informed with initial data from quantitative assessment of failure rates, root causes and mechanisms, in-situ diagnostics and data collection, lab-based forensics, and interviews with PV connector manufacturers and plant operators. SNL conducted site inspections at multiple utility-scale sites in different climates and subjected field samples of new, used, and degraded connectors to visual and electrical characterization. EPRI conducted metallurgical analysis of the pin and sleeve conductors to study failure-induced morphological and compositional changes. There is in general a shortage of statistically valid data, but data from PVROM database maintained by SNL was sufficient to ascertain failure rates and lost production as well as provide qualitative insight in its curated maintenance records. This report details the structure of the mathematical model but the sources of data to inform the model will continue to evolve. Analysis of a 100 MW PV plant is provided as an example of the use of the model, with results indicating that connectors are responsible for Annualized O&M Costs of $\$$71,933/year; Annualized Unit O&M Costs of $\$$0.72/kW/year; that a Reserve Account of $\$$187,220 should be available to fund repairs related to connectors; that connectors add $\$$1,494,004 to the Net Present Value of the O&M Costs (project life); and that O&M related to connectors adds about $\$$0.00088/kWh to the Levelized Cost of Energy. The impact of this model is to provide a tool to make the US solar sector more robust by quantifying and monetizing the reliability risks to utility-scale PV systems posed by poorly installed, mismatched and/or poorly designed and manufactured connectors. The TEA provides a model incorporating failure statistics, O&M cost data, and lost production into a single figure of merit, informing decisions and enabling practitioners to optimize cost and performance trade-offs. Stakeholders include connector manufacturers, system designers and equipment specifiers, standards bodies, installers and O&M providers, investors and insurance underwriters. This report supports continued growth of PV predicated on assurances that properly installed and maintained PV system connectors are safe and reliable. The project team is proposing future work including accelerated testing of connectors and expanding the approach taken here to other PV system components, such as TEA for rapid shut-down devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1993

Differential scaling: Implications for central structures in large lunar craters

The change in morphology of central structures with crater size on the terrestrial planets has been studied by many investigators. While the progression of morphological change essentially follows the same basic pattern, the appearance of central peaks, and the transitions from single to multiple peaks and peaks to peak rings occur at crater diameters that appear to be dependent on parameters associated with the target planet. Statistical data, morphological information, and model results exist for central structures in large craters, but the amount of 'ground truth' is comparatively meager. What, for instance, is the amount of stratigraphic uplift in craters? Answers to questions such as this will provide useful constraints on models of origin for central structures and would help in interpretation of remote-sensing data. This contribution uses terrestrial information and model calculations to estimate the amount of stratigraphic uplift for central-peak craters on the Moon--the only planet other than Earth for which sufficient topographic data are available.

Cintala, M. J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Frequency Emitter Geolocation Using Signal Strength Fingerprinting Informed By 3D Propagation Modeling

This work focuses on the problem of RF geolocation in complex multipath environments. Using 3D electromagnetic propagation modeling to characterize environments of interest will enable more accurate RF geolocation. Specifically, a path-loss radio map can be generated in simulation for use in received signal strength indicators (RSSI) fingerprinting, or pattern matching. RSSI fingerprinting is an example of data-based method that takes site specific information into account which should allow for better performance than other model-based methods that use a generalized model of electromagnetic propagation. This modeling capability will also be used to evaluate the relative performance of RSSI fingerprinting, pathloss model based RSSI methods such as differential received signal strength circles (DRSS), RSSI joint gaussian estimation, and time-difference of arrival (TDOA). New methods using this simulation derived electromagnetic characterization could improve the efficacy of currently deployed and future RF spectral monitoring solutions. Wireless InSite developed by Remcom is used as the simulation tool of choice in this work. An indoor location is simulated with a grid of fixed receivers and a grid of transmit locations. Using the output of the Wireless InSite simulation the response from a given transmit location to a given receive location can be generated. During the first year of the project various geolocation methods evaluated on purely synthetic, but realistic, data. The second year focused on testing and validating the efficacy of simulation informed RF geolocation using two physical testbeds. This work has shown that data-based approaches are more accurate than model-based ones at the expensive of requiring measured or simulated site-specific training data.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s Safety, Reliability, and Mission Assurance Digital Future

The evolution from “document-centric” to “data-centric” and “model-centric” information leveraging structured data and model-based approaches is at the heart of digital engineering transformational efforts underway across industry and government. It is these approaches that pave the way for data lakes, Authoritative Sources of Truth (ASOTs), and systems- of-systems interoperability and the corresponding transformational benefits thereof. Such benefits include increased data availability, data access equity, data traceability, real-time analytics, batch analytics, and (most importantly) acceleration of the time-to-value and time-to-insights associated with engineering products and analyses. The longer-term benefits of reusability, customization and traceability are even more promising. For Safety and Mission Assurance (SMA), and Mission Success (SMS) activities; realization of such benefits is essential to provide engineers and analysts alike vital information when needed to support critical decision making throughout the entire life cycle. The SMA community often operate in parallel with engineering activities, for which information exchange with relevant context is paramount. Far too often, such information lags key decision points and/or is absent of the robust, integrated, knowledge needed, given inherent barriers associated with traditional document-centric means to data sharing, analysis, and reporting. This paper provides an overview of how NASA’s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) is evolving its policies, standards, guidance, and training to transform to eliminate such barriers, thus realizing the benefits emerging in this new digital era. A roadmap for achieving this digital future is presented along with key building blocks involving use and implementation of concepts such as: Objectives-Hierarchies, Objective-Driven Requirements, Accepted Standards, Safety and Assurance Cases, data digitization (i.e., ontologies, structured data, and model-centric data), FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, & Reusable) and/or FAIRUST (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable, Understandable, Secure, and Trusted) principles [1]. This paper also describes how OSMA, leveraging the Agency’s overall commitment to Digital Transformation (DT), is using the power of Policy, “Digital” Domain representation, Product Evolution, and Community Outreach and Engagement as part of a strategic vision and roadmap to evolve and transform its SMA organizations to become better able to serve its stakeholders and customers. Future publications will elaborate on these building blocks and deeper concepts.

Authoritative Source of Truth (ASOT),↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Product Development Decision Model for Cockpit Weather Information System

There is a significant market demand for advanced cockpit weather information products. However, it is unclear how to identify the most promising technological options that provide the desired mix of consumer requirements by employing feasible technical systems at a price that achieves market success. This study develops a unique product development decision model that employs Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Kano's model of consumer choice. This model is specifically designed for exploration and resolution of this and similar information technology related product development problems.

Sireli, Yesim↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Product Development Decision Model for Cockpit Weather Information Systems

Sireli, Yesim↗

DOE OSTI2021

Powder diffraction

Powder diffraction is a non-destructive technique, which is experimentally simple in principle. Because the physics behind diffraction is well understood, an exceptionally large amount of information can be obtained from a single measurement. The positions and relative intensities of the peaks yield a fingerprint that can be used for qualitative phase analysis. Quantitative phase analysis can be obtained by detailed analysis of the intensities. Unit cells can be derived from the peak positions. Crystal structures can be solved using powder diffraction data and refined by the Rietveld method. The peak profiles contain information about crystallite size, strain and nanostructure. Non-idealities in the intensities give information on texture. Abandoning the crystallographic model provides information about local structure, by pair distribution function analysis. For powder diffraction, everything is a sample; the technique is commonly applied to characterize minerals, ceramics, metals and alloys, catalysts, polymers, pharmaceuticals, organic compounds, environmental and forensic samples, among others. The major features of contemporary laboratory powder diffractometers are described. Methods for obtaining suitable powder specimens are summarized. Major applications of qualitative and quantitative phase analysis, structure solution, size/strain/nanostructure analysis using peak profiles, texture analysis and pair distribution function analysis are introduced.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗