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At least 649 records · Page 36

Nitrate loading projection is sensitive to freeze-thaw cycle representation

Climate change can have substantial impacts on nitrogen runoff, which is a major cause of eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, and hypoxia in freshwaters and coastal regions. We examined responses of nitrate loading to climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) with an enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool with physically based Freeze-Thaw cycle representation (SWAT-FT), as compared with the original SWAT model that employs an empirical equation. Driven by future climate projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from 1960 to 2099 under the Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario, we analyzed changes in riverine nitrate loadings, as well as terrestrial surface and subsurface contributions of the UMRB in the 21st century relative to the baseline period of 1960–1999. By the end of the 21st century, the original SWAT model predicted about a 50% increase in riverine nitrate loadings which is nearly twice as much as that estimated by SWAT-FT (ca. 25%). Such a large difference in projected nitrate changes can potentially mislead mitigation strategies that aim to reduce nitrogen runoff from the UMRB. Further analysis shows that the difference between the original SWAT model and SWAT-FT led to substantial discrepancies in the spatial distribution of surface and subsurface nitrate loadings in the UMRB. In general, SWAT-FT predicted more nitrate leaching for northwestern parts of the UMRB which are more sensitive to freeze-thaw cycle, mainly because SWAT-FT simulated less frequent frozen soils. This study highlights the importance of using physically based freeze-thaw cycle representation in water quality modeling. Design of future nitrogen runoff reduction strategies should include careful assessment of effects that land management has on the freeze-thaw cycles to provide reliable projection of water quality under climate change.

Wang, Qianfeng↗

Effect of workpiece curvature on the tool influence function during hemispherical sub-aperture tool glass polishing

The influence of workpiece curvature on the tool influence function spot during polishing of fused silica glass with cerium oxide slurry, while using a rotating hemispherical pad-foam tool for a wide variety of process conditions (tool displacement, inclination angle, and rotation rate), has been investigated. (Workpiece curvature ranged from 500 mm radius concave to 43 mm radius convex.) The TIF spot decreases in diameter and increases in the peak removal rate on more convex workpieces. In contrast, the TIF spot increases both in diameter and peak removal rate on more concave workpieces. For the range of workpiece curvatures investigated, both the spot size and the peak removal rate changed significantly, as much as 2 times. An elastic sphere–sphere contact mechanics model, which utilizes both a modified displacement (that leads to a change in the applied load) as well as a mismatch factor (that influences the pressure distribution shape), has been developed. Furthermore, the model was validated using both offline load-displacement measurements and finite-element analysis simulations. The model quantitatively describes the measured change in the relative contact diameter and relative pressure distribution, as well as semiquantitively describes the change in the relative volumetric removal rate on a large variety of TIF spots. The change in the volumetric removal rate for convex workpieces is a result of the balance between a decreasing spot size (reducing removal) and an increasing peak pressure (increasing removal), which usually results in relatively small changes in volumetric removal. In the case of concave workpieces, the volumetric removal rate change is also governed by a similar balance, but the spot size increase contribution dominates, resulting in a significant increase in volumetric removal rate. Understanding these trends can enable methods to add greater determinism during the fabrication of freeform optics by adjusting polishing parameters (such as dwell time) while the tool translates along a workpiece surface with different local curvatures.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A Review of Water and Climate Change Analysis in Electric Utility Integrated Resource Planning

The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent to which electric utility integrated resource plans (IRPs) evaluate the impact of water constraints on electric generation resource portfolios and the extent to which IRPs consider the impacts of climate change to generation and loads. This white paper reviewed 30 IRPs to determine best practices with respect to analyzing and reporting on potential water-based and climate change risks within the integrated resource planning process. Best practices from electric utility IRPs are identified and additional recommendations and considerations are put forth. In recent years, thermal generating facilities have experienced challenges with water availability: a shortage of cooling water, conditions in which incoming cooling water is too warm for optimal operation, and/or water discharge temperatures exceeding permit limits. S&P Global Market Intelligence recently reported on a study that identified for the year 2030, 98.2 gigawatts (GW) of coal capacity at risk due to water stress. Climate change effects on hydrological cycles may adjust the timing, temperature, and volume of water availability for thermal electric cooling and for hydropower generation, which could further exacerbate the frequency and duration of operational constraints. Climate change can also impact the timing and intensity of electric loads that utilities must serve, most notably for heating and cooling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Theory of ultrasonic diffraction by damage developed in thin laminated composites

The apparent attenuation which would result if certain damage states (transverse cracks and delaminations) are introduced into a graphite/epoxy laminate through which an ultrasonic wave passes is investigated. Experimental data for two different laminates are presented which shows changes in the apparent attenuation of about one db. These changes generally occur at loads which correspond to the range predicted for the formation of the damage. The predicted changes in the attenuation for several simple and common damage states are well within the range of experimental values.

Hayford, D. T.↗

Effect of Horizontal-Tail Chord on the Calculated Subsonic Span Loads and Stability Derivatives of Isolated Unswept Tail Assemblies in Sideslip and Steady Roll

Subsonic span loads and the resulting stability derivatives have been calculated using the discrete-horseshoe-vortex method for a systematic series of horizontal tails in combination with a vertical tail of aspect ratio 1.0 in order to provide information on the effect of varying the chord of the horizontal tail for isolated tail assemblies performing sideslip and steady-roll motions. In addition, the effects of horizontal-tail dihedral angle for the sideslip case were obtained. Each tail surface considered had a taper ratio of 0.5 and an unswept quarter-chord line. The investigation covered variations in horizontal-tail chord, horizontal-tail span, and vertical location of the horizontal tail. The span loads and the resulting total stability derivatives as well as the vertical- and horizontal-tail contributions to these tail-assembly derivatives are presented in the figures for the purpose of showing the influence of the geometric variables. The results of this investigation showed trends that were in agreement with the results of previous investigations for variations in horizontal-tail span and vertical location of the horizontal tail. Variations in horizontal-tail chord expressed herein in terms of the root-chord ratio, that is, the ratio of horizontal-tail root chord to vertical-tail root chord, were found to have a pronounced influence on most of the span loads and the resulting stability derivatives. For most of the cases considered, the rate of change of the span load coefficients and the stability derivatives with the root-chord ratio was found to be a maximum for small values of root-chord ratio and to decrease as root-chord ratio increased.

Booth, Katherine W.↗

Variational and phase response analysis for limit cycles with hard boundaries, with applications to neuromechanical control problems

Motor systems show an overall robustness, but because they are highly nonlinear, understanding how they achieve robustness is difficult. In many rhythmic systems, robustness against perturbations involves response of both the shape and the timing of the trajectory. This makes the study of robustness even more challenging. To understand how a motor system produces robust behaviors in a variable environment, we consider a neuromechanical model of motor patterns in the feeding apparatus of the marine mollusk Aplysia californica (Shaw et al. in J Comput Neurosci 38(1):25–51, 2015; Lyttle et al. in Biol Cybern 111(1):25–47, 2017). We established in (Wang et al. in SIAM J Appl Dyn Syst 20(2):701–744, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1137/20M1344974) the tools for studying combined shape and timing responses of limit cycle systems under sustained perturbations and here apply them to study robustness of the neuromechanical model against increased mechanical load during swallowing. Interestingly, we discover that nonlinear biomechanical properties confer resilience by immediately increasing resistance to applied loads. In contrast, the effect of changed sensory feedback signal is significantly delayed by the firing rates’ hard boundary properties. Our analysis suggests that sensory feedback contributes to robustness in swallowing primarily by shifting the timing of neural activation involved in the power stroke of the motor cycle (retraction). This effect enables the system to generate stronger retractor muscle forces to compensate for the increased load, and hence achieve strong robustness. The approaches that we are applying to understanding a neuromechanical model in Aplysia, and the results that we have obtained, are likely to provide insights into the function of other motor systems that encounter changing mechanical loads and hard boundaries, both due to mechanical and neuronal firing properties.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Shape-stabilized phase change materials for energy storage based on hierarchically porous calcium magnesium carbonate

A composite phase-change material containing a hierarchically porous Ca 1-x Mg x CO 3 and having pores loaded with a phase change material is described. The heat storage material has a latent heat of melting 123 to 221 J/g, a latent heat of freezing of 107 to 201 J/g, and a thermal conductivity of 0.22 to 0.45 W·m −1 ·K −1 . The phase change material may be polyethylene glycol, and the polyethylene glycol does not leak from the pores of the hierarchically porous Ca 1-x Mg x CO 3 when heating or cooling over phase transitions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Load Schedule Design Improvements for the Calibration of NASA's Semi-span Balances

Improvements of the load schedule design for the calibration of NASA's semi-span balances are discussed. These improvements became possible after a minor hardware change was made to Calspan's Large Load Rig. This change moves normal and axial force load points 12 inches closer to the balance moment center. Resulting data quality improvements are significant because Calspan's Large Load Rig cannot currently apply forces at the balance moment center of a semi-span balance. Now, the supported set of rolling and yawing moment arms is 28 inches, 38 inches, and 48 inches. Consequently, the new load schedule design better supports expected normal and axial force locations on semi-span models that are tested in the NASA Ames 11-ft Transonic Wind Tunnel. In addition, estimates of the primary sensitivities of the normal force, axial force, rolling moment, and yawing moment have become more accurate as the applied normal and axial forces have moved closer to the balance moment center. Fundamental moment arm range requirements and Calspan's hardware updates are discussed in detail. In addition, calibration analysis results of NASA's ARC30K semi-span balance are presented to illustrate benefits of the hardware changes.

wind tunnel test↗

Compound climate events transform electrical power shortfall risk in the Pacific Northwest

Power system operations are sensitive to climate-driven variations in both energy demands and water availability. Yet the combined effect of these impacts on power system adequacy is rarely evaluated. Here we assess power shortfall risk for the U.S. Pacific Northwest under combined climate impacts on loads and hydropower generation. Climate change emerges as both a risk and an opportunity; potential shortfall events occur more readily, but are significantly less severe in nature (annual shortfall probability is more than doubled for a business as usual policy; average shortfall event duration is halved and average maximum shortfall is reduced by up to ~60%). A seasonal reversal in shortfall risk occurs: winter shortfalls are eradicated due to reduced building heating demands, whilst summer shortfalls multiply as increased peak loads for day-time cooling coincide with impaired hydropower generation. Many of these summer shortfalls go unregistered when climate change impacts on loads and hydro dispatch are analyzed in isolation—suggesting an important role of compound events.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Uncertainty characterization in a coupled human-natural system: Modeling agricultural adaptation in the Great Lakes Region

The Great Lakes Region's water quality and ecological health are threatened by the export of nutrients from agricultural lands, which causes eutrophication, hypoxia, and destructive algal blooms. The intensification of hydrologic cycles brought about by climate change is expected to exacerbate nutrient loading in the region, and, at the same time, agricultural adaptation to changing conditions is also expected to affect loading through shifting amounts and timing of fertilization. Quantifying these future effects and their interactions necessitates modeling both the human and natural processes as a coupled system, by pairing land use and agricultural management with hydrologic modeling. At the same time, compounding uncertainties arising from the complex interactions in both systems significantly limit our predictive understanding of the region's impacts. This study utilizes the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), developed for simulating the impact of various farmer decisions on watershed functions in Western Lake Erie watersheds, and an under-development agent-based model (ABM) for agricultural management decisions. The aim of this study is to use global sensitivity analysis on the coupled ABM and SWAT models to quantify how uncertainty in both models interactively affects nutrient loading. To do so, we will conduct Sobol sensitivity analysis experiments at different levels of coupling assumptions to quantify how various uncertain factors (e.g., soil moisture and crop choice) and their interactions affect our estimates of nutrient loading. The results of this analysis will allow us to quantify how complex interactions and dependencies between both systems amplify the effect of uncertainties. Insights gained from this study will have broader implications for modeling the adaptive co-evolution of human and natural systems under climate change and can inform effective management of nutrient loading in the Great Lakes Region.

Climate Change↗

Tri-Level Scheduling Model Considering Residential Demand Flexibility of Aggregated HVACs and EVs Under Distribution LMP

Residential loads, especially heating, ventilation and air conditioners (HVACs) and electric vehicles (EVs), have great potentials to provide demand flexibility which is an attribute of grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEB). Under this new paradigm, first, EV and HVAC aggregator models are developed in this paper to represent the fleet of GEBs, in which the aggregated parameters are obtained based on a new approach of data generation and least squares parameter estimation (DG-LSPE), which can deal with heterogeneous HVACs. Then, a tri-level bidding and dispatching framework is established based on competitive distribution operation with distribution locational marginal price (DLMP). Furthermore, the first two levels form a bilevel model to optimize the aggregators’ payment and to represent the interdependency between load aggregators and the distribution system operator (DSO) using DLMP, and the third level is to dispatch the optimal load aggregation to all residents by the proposed priority list-based demand dispatching algorithm. Finally, case studies on a modified IEEE 33-Bus system illustrate three main technical reasons of payment reduction due to demand flexibility: load shift, DLMP step changes, and power losses. They can be used as general guidelines for better decision-making for future planning and operation of demand response programs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The molecular mechanism of load adaptation by branched actin networks

Branched actin networks are self-assembling molecular motors that move biological membranes and drive many important cellular processes, including phagocytosis, endocytosis, and pseudopod protrusion. When confronted with opposing forces, the growth rate of these networks slows and their density increases, but the stoichiometry of key components does not change. The molecular mechanisms governing this force response are not well understood, so we used single-molecule imaging and AFM cantilever deflection to measure how applied forces affect each step in branched actin network assembly. Although load forces are observed to increase the density of growing filaments, we find that they actually decrease the rate of filament nucleation due to inhibitory interactions between actin filament ends and nucleation promoting factors. The force-induced increase in network density turns out to result from an exponential drop in the rate constant that governs filament capping. The force dependence of filament capping matches that of filament elongation and can be explained by expanding Brownian Ratchet theory to cover both processes. We tested a key prediction of this expanded theory by measuring the force-dependent activity of engineered capping protein variants and found that increasing the size of the capping protein increases its sensitivity to applied forces. In summary, we find that Brownian Ratchets underlie not only the ability of growing actin filaments to generate force but also the ability of branched actin networks to adapt their architecture to changing loads.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Skin, Stringer, and Fastener Loads in Buckled Fuselage Panels

The results of a numerical study to assess the effect of skin buckling on the internal load distribution in a stiffened fuselage panel, with and without longitudinal cracks, are presented. In addition, the impact of changes in the internal loads on the fatigue life and residual strength of a fuselage panel is assessed. A generic narrow-body fuselage panel is considered. The entire panel is modeled using shell elements and considerable detail is included to represent the geometric-nonlinear response of the buckled skin, cross section deformation of the stiffening components, and details of the skin-string attachment with discrete fasteners. Results are presented for a fixed internal pressure and various combinations of axial tension or compression loads. Results illustrating the effect of skin buckling on the stress distribution in the skin and stringer, and fastener loads are presented. Results are presented for the pristine structure, and for cases where damage is introduced in the form of a longitudinal crack adjacent to the stringer, or failed fastener elements. The results indicate that axial compression loads and skin buckling can have a significant effect on the circumferential stress in the skin, and fastener loads, which will influence damage initiation, and a comparable effect on stress intensity factors for cases with cracks. The effects on stress intensity factors will influence damage propagation rates and the residual strength of the panel.

Young, Richard D.↗

Real-Time Unsteady Loads Measurements Using Hot-Film Sensors

Several flight-critical aerodynamic problems such as buffet, flutter, stall, and wing rock are strongly affected or caused by abrupt changes in unsteady aerodynamic loads and moments. Advanced sensing and flow diagnostic techniques have made possible simultaneous identification and tracking, in real-time, of the critical surface, viscosity-related aerodynamic phenomena under both steady and unsteady flight conditions. The wind tunnel study reported here correlates surface hot-film measurements of leading edge stagnation point and separation point, with unsteady aerodynamic loads on a NACA 0015 airfoil. Lift predicted from the correlation model matches lift obtained from pressure sensors for an airfoil undergoing harmonic pitchup and pitchdown motions. An analytical model was developed that demonstrates expected stall trends for pitchup and pitchdown motions. This report demonstrates an ability to obtain unsteady aerodynamic loads in real-time, which could lead to advances in air vehicle safety, performance, ride-quality, control, and health management.

Mangalam, Arun S.↗

Real-Time Unsteady Loads Measurements Using Hot-Film Sensors

Several flight-critical aerodynamic problems such as buffet, flutter, stall, and wing rock are strongly affected or caused by abrupt changes in unsteady aerodynamic loads and moments. Advanced sensing and flow diagnostic techniques have made possible simultaneous identification and tracking, in realtime, of the critical surface, viscosity-related aerodynamic phenomena under both steady and unsteady flight conditions. The wind tunnel study reported here correlates surface hot-film measurements of leading edge stagnation point and separation point, with unsteady aerodynamic loads on a NACA 0015 airfoil. Lift predicted from the correlation model matches lift obtained from pressure sensors for an airfoil undergoing harmonic pitchup and pitchdown motions. An analytical model was developed that demonstrates expected stall trends for pitchup and pitchdown motions. This report demonstrates an ability to obtain unsteady aerodynamic loads in real time, which could lead to advances in air vehicle safety, performance, ride-quality, control, and health management.

Mangalam, Arun S.↗

Long term load forecasting accuracy in electric utility integrated resource planning

Forecasts of electricity consumption and peak demand over time horizons of one or two decades are a key element in electric utilities’ meeting their core objective and obligation to ensure reliable and affordable electricity supplies for their customers while complying with a range of energy and environmental regulations and policies. These forecasts are an important input to integrated resource planning (IRP) processes involving utilities, regulators, and other stake-holders. Despite their importance, however, there has been little analysis of long term utility load forecasting accuracy. We conduct a retrospective analysis of long term load forecasts on twelve Western U. S. electric utilities in the mid-2000s to find that most overestimated both energy consumption and peak demand growth. A key reason for this was the use of assumptions that led to an overestimation of economic growth. We find that the complexity of forecast methods and the accuracy of these forecasts are mildly correlated. In addition, sensitivity and risk analysis of load growth and its implications for capacity expansion were not well integrated with subsequent implementation. As a result, we review changes in the utilities load forecasting methods over the subsequent decade, and discuss the policy implications of long term load forecast inaccuracy and its underlying causes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Six-Phase Space Vector PWM Technique for Wide Bandgap Device-Based Three-Level Inverters

This article presents a space vector pulsewidth modulation (SVPWM) technique for wide bandgap (WBG) device-based three-level (3L) six-phase inverters. Implementation of the SVPWM techniques for any six-phase inverter is complex for its high number of possible voltage vectors. Different six-phase load configurations are also possible depending on the angle between two consecutive phases and neutral point connections. The implementation techniques change depending on the load configuration. Moreover, a common neutral point for all six phases leads to circulating currents. Capacitor voltage balancing is also needed for 3L inverters. Capacitor voltage balancing and addressing the circulating current problem further increases the implementation complexity. In this article, a generalized SVPWM technique is proposed for the six-phase 3L inverters that is implementable using two three-phase 3L SVPWM blocks. The SVPWM technique also ensures dc bus capacitor voltage balancing and minimizes circulating current. Here, the SVPWM technique is experimentally verified using a GaN-based 3L six-phase active neutral point clamped (ANPC) inverter prototype, and the results are presented in this article.

42 ENGINEERING↗