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DOE OSTI2023

Environmental and Social Justice Implications of a Circular Plastics Economy

A consideration of environmental justice (EJ) and social justice (SJ) is critical to minimize the impacts of technology deployment on local communities. SJ and EJ impacts occur in specific geographic locations but can cover a wide range of effects (e.g., air pollution, access to clean water, jobs, wages, and education), making it challenging to determine which metrics are appropriate to evaluate and which data are required. Thus, there is currently a gap in the analysis community's ability to provide useful and universal EJ and SJ metrics for emerging technologies. Here, we present a draft framework for evaluating the human health, local environment, and job implications of processes that are at an early or middle technology readiness level (TRL). Using a case study on enzymatic polyethylene terephthalate (PET) recycling (middle TRL), we demonstrate how to qualitatively and quantitatively assess these EJ and SJ metrics for a circular economy context and how to communicate the results in a manner beneficial to both researchers and local communities.

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2025

Technology Case Study: Economic, Sustainability, and Deployment Considerations for Sustainable Aviation Fuels Produced via Lignocellulosic Sugar Catalysis

This report presents a technology case study reflecting one exemplary representative pathway for the conversion of lignocellulosic sugars to sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) via aqueous phase reforming (APR) catalysis, considered within a broader integrated biorefinery framework based on biochemical processing operations. While far from the only option for converting sugars to SAF, this pathway was selected as a case study here based on its relatively high technology maturity and simplistic processing approach (avoiding complex separations or other equipment scalability challenges), coupled with the potential for high fuel yields and favorable costs/carbon intensities with opportunities for further near-term optimization. The report considers key process integration and engineering design considerations for a modeled hypothetical, nth-plant commercial biorefinery, reflecting a number of processing options and parameters envisioned to be achievable as future goals. Resultant outputs from Aspen Plus process simulations are evaluated through techno-economic and life cycle analyses (TEA and LCA), including implications for marginal cost of CO2 abatement and inclusion of currently-applicable policy incentives. Moving beyond base case configurations, a number of alternative scenarios are also evaluated for their ability to further improve economics, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and marginal cost of abatement, highlighting a path to achieve deep decarbonization goals of more than 70% GHG reduction for SAF (with the potential to reach net-negative carbon intensities in some cases) under reasonable fuel production costs. The report also highlights future opportunities and gaps for further research on this technology pathway.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Economic Risk-Informed Maintenance Planning and Asset Management (Final Report)

The proposed work will provide a holistic framework for cost-minimizing risk-informed maintenance planning, including inspection, in light water reactors (LWRs). Specifically, we develop a two-tier framework that (a) coarsely minimizes the total maintenance cost during the remaining normal operating cycle of the plant prior to the next scheduled outage (long-term), subject to safety requirements, and (b) uses the outputs of the first model to develop a secondary optimization model to finely schedule maintenance activities to maximize the financial impact of these activities in the next week (short-term).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Current Practices in Distribution Utility Resilience Planning for Wildfires

This report is part of a series of hazard-focused case studies examining common practices in electric utility resilience planning. We use standard terminology defining resilience as the ability to anticipate, withstand, absorb, and recover from hazards that cause long duration outages. We distinguish between reliability and resilience using IEEE 1366-2022, which defines major events as "an event that exceeds reasonable design and/or operational limits of the electric power system." Resilience planning is focused on major event days, and reliability planning is focused on non-major event days. Utility resilience plans are assessed according to common resilience components identified in existing resilience frameworks. The focus of this report is on wildfires. Standalone reports focusing on severe storms (including hurricanes and non-winter storms) and winter storms have been published in parallel with this report. This report can be used as a starting point for understanding potential investment prioritization processes and investment options. This report is intended to improve utility resilience planning by supporting constructive dialogue among utilities, regulators, and other stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Coordination of thermostatically controlled loads

Apparatus and methods for a market-based control framework to coordinate a group of autonomous thermostatically controlled loads (TCL) to achieve system-level objectives with pricing incentives is disclosed. In one example of the disclosed technology, a method of providing power to a load via a power grid by submitting bids to a coordinator includes determining an energy response relating price data for one or more energy prices to quantity data for power to be consumed by the load, sending a bid for power for a finite time period based on the energy response to the coordinator, and receiving a clearing price based on: the bid, on bids received from a plurality of additional loads, and a feeder power constraint. In some examples, the energy response is based at least in part on an equivalent thermal parameter model and a control policy indicating one or more power states for the load.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coordination of thermostatically controlled loads

Lian, Jianming↗

DOE OSTI2026

Preparing For Advanced Air Mobility: A System-Level Framework For Infrastructure, Investment, and Deployment

Advanced air mobility (AAM) is moving from demonstration toward early deployment, supported by a growing national strategy that outlines how these systems may evolve across airspace, infrastructure, and operations. As this transition takes shape, a more practical question comes into focus: what does it mean to be ready? This paper introduces a Capability Maturity Model (CMM) as a structured way to think about that challenge. Rather than treating readiness as a fixed condition, it frames it as a progression - one that develops across multiple, interdependent domains over time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multistage robust optimization for the day-ahead scheduling of hybrid thermal-hydro-wind-solar systems

The integration of large-scale uncertain and uncontrollable wind and solar power generation has brought new challenges to the operations of modern power systems. In a power system with abundant water resources, hydroelectric generation with high operational flexibility is a powerful tool to promote a higher penetration of wind and solar power generation. In this paper, we study the day-ahead scheduling of a thermal-hydro-wind-solar power system. The uncertainties of renewable energy generation, including uncertain natural water inflow and wind/solar power output, are taken into consideration. We explore how the operational flexibility of hydroelectric generation and the coordination of thermal-hydro power can be utilized to hedge against uncertain wind/solar power under a multistage robust optimization (MRO) framework. To address the computational issue, mixed decision rules are employed to reformulate the original MRO model with a multi-level structure into a bi-level one. Column-and-constraint generation (C &CG) algorithm is extended into the MRO case to solve the bi-level model. The proposed optimization approach is tested in three real-world cases. Furthermore, the computational results demonstrate the capability of hydroelectric generation to promote the accommodation of uncertain wind and solar power.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Demand response event simulator and risk-aware bidding tool for industrial customers

Incentive Based Demand Response (IBDR) program participation delivers financial benefits to the consumers and resiliency benefits to the electricity grid. Effectively participating in these programs as an industrial consumer requires bidding strategies that balance financial risk with operational constraints. Existing bidding tools tend not to fully incorporate stochastic IBDR event modeling, program specific baseline and payment/penalty calculations, or demand reduction process control schemes that account for the cascading impacts of shutdown in complex facilities. Here, this work presents an IBDR event simulator and risk-aware bidding framework tool integrating three key components: a flexible, parameterized demand response event generator that rigorously accounts for program structures and stochasticity, a demand response operational simulation model that generates explicit control strategies for load reduction, and a Monte Carlo simulator to evaluate financial risk for varied capacity bids. A case study at a wastewater treatment plant participating in PG&E's Capacity Bidding Program demonstrates the framework's utility. In the peak capacity price month of August, optimal bidding by the wastewater treatment plant nets a mean IBDR benefit of $101,000 (67% of the August electricity bill) with 0.4% probability of a financial loss. This framework enables industrial operators to make informed bidding decisions, negotiate better program terms with demand response load aggregators, and analyze energy flexibility investments at their facilities. Ultimately, this work reduces participation barriers in IBDR programs and supports the broader goal of enhancing grid reliability and renewable energy integration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Street-level temperature estimation using graph neural networks: Performance, feature embedding and interpretability

Estimating street-level air temperature is a challenging task due to the highly heterogeneous urban surfaces, canyon-like street morphology, and the diverse physical processes in the built environment. Though pioneering studies have embarked on investigations via data-driven approaches, many questions remain to be answered. Here, in this study, we leveraged an innovative framework and redefined the street-level temperature estimation problem using Graph Neural Networks (GNN) with spatial embedding techniques. The results showed that GNN models are more capable and consistent of estimating street-level temperature among tested locations, benefiting from its unique strength in handling extensive data over unstructured graph topology. In addition, we conducted in-depth analysis of feature importance to enhance the model interpretability. Among the urban features analyzed in this study, the time-variant canopy density and meter-level land use data emerge as crucial factors. Our findings highlight GNN 's high potential in capturing the complex dynamics between urban elements and their impacts on microclimate, thus offering valuable insights for comprehensive urban data collection and urban climate modeling in general. Collectively, this study also contributes to urban planning and policy by providing avenues to enhance city resilience against climate change, thereby advancing the agenda for environmental stewardship and urban sustainability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Operation Optimization Using Reinforcement Learning with Integrated Artificial Reasoning Framework

In large and complex systems, operational decision-making requires a systematic analysis with a vast amount of data from both process parameters and component status monitoring. In this paper, we present an integrated artificial reasoning approach for system state transition models that can help operational decision-making with explainable and traceable reasoning. The integrated artificial reasoning framework is a physics-based approach of defining the system structure in a Bayesian network, so we leveraged it in a Markov decision process (MDP) for finding optimal operational solutions. In our proposed framework, the MDP is implemented on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), which represents causalities in a system. The multilevel flow modeling was utilized in order to extract these causalities in a more efficient and objective manner. Since multilevel flow modeling is based on the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws, the target system is decomposed into several mass, energy, and information structures, which serve as the basis for a DBN. The MDP consists of the processes of finding a solution for the Bellman equation, which can be derived from the conditional probability equations of the constructed DBN. System operators can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from the component degradation process or random failures. We analyzed a simplified example system to illustrate finding an optimal operational policy with this approach.

Kim, Junyung↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of the Total Cost of Ownership for Class 8 Tractors and Class 4 Parcel Delivery Trucks

The medium- and heavy-duty transportation sector is experiencing rapid changes in powertrain technology innovation, with recent announcements of battery electric and fuel cell electric trucks being offered. The economics of these alternative powertrain vehicles are uncertain and difficult to compare directly. This analysis seeks to provide a rigorous, techno-economic analysis of all of these alternative powertrain vehicles within the same analytic framework. Specifically, this report evaluates the total cost of ownership (TCO) of six different truck powertrain technologies (diesel, diesel hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid electric, compressed natural gas, battery electric, and fuel cell electric) for three different truck vocations (Class 8 long haul [750-mile range and 500-mile range], Class 8 short haul [300-mile range], and Class 4 parcel delivery [120-mile range]), for three different time frames (2018, 2025, and Ultimate).

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Technologist in Residence for Advanced Manufacturing and Materials in Unconventional Oil and Gas Equipment and Infrastructure

The DOE Technologist in Residence (TIR) program pairs a senior technical staff member from a National Laboratory (Lab Technologist), and a senior technical staff member(s) from a clean energy manufacturing company or consortium of companies (Industry Technologist). Each technologist may represent single or multiple national laboratories, or single or multiple companies. These pairs of Lab and industry technologists work together for a period of 18 to 24 months to accomplish several goals: 1) Identify the participating company’s (or companies’) technical priorities and challenges, and the resources and capabilities in DOE’s National Laboratories that may be highly suitable to address them; 2) Propose collaborative R&D efforts to develop science-based solutions to the company’s (or companies’) most strategic scientific, technological, and business issues; and 3) Develop a general framework agreement and begin developing specific scopes of work for the proposed collaborative R&D efforts. The proposed R&D will then take place outside of the program and will not use TIR program funds. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Pioneer Natural Resources were awarded a TIR project by DOE in late 2016 and the CRADA component of the project was initiated in 2017. This report describes work performed under the CRADA agreement between 2017 and 2020.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Distributed Energy Storage Sizing in Puerto Rico: Leveraging Increased Distributed Generation for Enhanced Resilience

Distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage systems (BESS) adoption has increased rapidly in Puerto Rico since Hurricane Maria in 2017 as customers seek local resilient energy solutions. To investigate how to best leverage these many distributed PV and BESS systems, in this paper, we introduce a modeling framework that can be used by entities planning resilience investments to provide insights about the sizing and operational needs to achieve desired resilience benefits.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Expanding market opportunities: cogeneration strategies for integrated PWR and thermal energy storage systems

We assess the economic viability of nuclear cogeneration by investigating three different modes—fixed dispatch, fully flexible dispatch, and flexible dispatch with minimum heat supply requirements. The analysis focuses on an existing pressurized water reactor (PWR) integrated with thermal energy storage (TES). Heat production costs are estimated under these modes for two U.S. electricity markets: the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland Interconnection (PJM). A sensitivity analysis examines profitability at varying heat market prices. Results indicate that fixed heat dispatch inflates heat production costs, often rendering projects economically feasible only at higher heat price levels. Fully-flexible dispatch lowers heat production costs by an average of 43 % compared to fixed dispatch. However, the current 30 % thermal dispatch limit may be insufficient to serve high baseline industrial demands cost‐effectively; higher maximum dispatch rates could enhance project economics. Markets with higher and more volatile electricity prices (e.g., ERCOT) offer greater total energy sales potential (i.e., heat and electricity), but also increase opportunity costs when heat production scheduling restrictions are imposed. In contrast, lower-price, less volatile markets (e.g., PJM) experience smaller impacts from such constraints and provide greater flexibility in accommodating varying cogeneration modes. In conclusion, these findings provide a framework to guide nuclear plant operators in aligning cogeneration strategies with industrial process requirements and electricity market conditions.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Preparing Distribution Utilities for the Future - Unlocking Demand-Side Management Potential: A Novel Analytical Framework

The balance of supply and demand in the power systems has traditionally been served solely through generation and network capacity planning and operations. However, with increased requirements for flexibility due to the uptake in variable renewable generation sources such as wind and solar there is a need to increased demand-side flexibility. In addition, there are increased communications and flexibility capabilities emerging on the demand-side from the adoption of advanced metering infrastructures and smart meter deployment and intelligent loads such as smart thermostats and schedulable white goods (e.g. dishwashers and washing machines). Unlocking demand-side flexibility can bring system benefits from peak load reduction bringing about generation capacity and network upgrade deferral, to reducing demand and more efficient utilization of generation and network capacity. Unlocking demand-side flexibility is an evolving process for utilities and solutions must be tailored to each specific customer group. Demand-side management (DSM) is a broad set of tools that can include demand response (both dispatchable and non-dispatchable), energy efficiency and distributed energy resources and demand-side technologies. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in collaboration with BSES Rajdhani Power Ltd. (BRPL) and Deloitte, examined the potential of DSM in BRPL’s service territory, developing detailed information on customer classes and willingness to participate in DSM. The study developed modeling frameworks for load analysis and the analysis tools to assess the potential of time-of-use tariffs in motivating customers to reduce their peak period energy consumption. The study shows that BRPL customers, specifically their domestic customers, are willing to participate in DSM programs and that time-of-use pricing can help BRPL reduce their peak demand and help unlock demand-side flexibility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mapping the Opportunity Space to Model the Circular Economy Using Tools Funded by the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

An increasing rate of material consumption and a growing population mean that the Earth's supply of natural resources is witnessing an unsustainable and unprecedented demand. This forces us to find solutions that ensure the availability of resources for sustenance of our society in the years to come. Actors from various backgrounds are addressing these challenges from their own perspectives: engineers are developing efficient manufacturing processes, designers are creating lightweight and durable products, educators are incorporating sustainable thinking in their curricula, policymakers are finding interdisciplinary solutions that benefit society at large, etc. Circular economy (CE) is one such approach to resource use that aims to move away from the linear material use framework of "take-make-waste" to a more circular and interdependent system where product, material and resource use is maximized to avoid unnecessary social, economic, and environmental costs. The purpose of this report is to explain how to approach evaluating the circular economy and to help researchers identify existing tools that can be used or that can serve as starting points for their research needs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Levelized Cost of Exergy Framework

Exergy is the amount of energy within a substance or within a transfer of energy that can be used to produce work or some other useful output when interacting with some reference environment. Two different energy systems that produce the same output with the same exergetic efficiency must necessarily have the same amount of exergy input, even if the amount of energy input to the two systems is vastly different. For example, a low-grade heat-driven desalination would require far more energy input than a reverse osmosis (RO) plant producing the same amount of water, but if their exergetic efficiencies were the same, they would require the same amount of exergy input. Thus, comparisons between different energy sources on the basis of energy is not always appropriate. Instead, a comparison on a per unit exergy basis provides more insight on the cost-effectiveness of different energy sources and systems. In this presentation, we describe a framework for analyzing the levelized cost of exergy (LCOEx) for both inputs and outputs of various energy systems. Our framework illustrates how the cost per unit exergy of a system's energy source, as well as the exergetic efficiency of the system, greatly affect the cost of the system output. We use the levelized cost of electricity as a benchmark value for LCOEx, due to electricity's ubiquity as an energy source, and because it is relatively inexpensive on a per unit exergy basis. The LCOEx of various heat sources are then compared to the LCOEx of electricity. Medium- and high-grade industrial heat (> 150 degrees C) produced by natural gas tends to have an LCOEx on par with electricity. This is due to the low cost of natural gas, as well as the high exergy content of heat at higher temperatures. Meanwhile, low-grade heat tends to be an expensive exergy source, owing to the low exergy content of the low-grade heat. We first apply our framework to desalination, where RO has come to dominate, due to the low LCOEx of the energy source (electricity) and relatively high exergetic efficiency of RO compared to thermal desalination systems. We then use this framework to highlight an opportunity for dehumidification systems to experience a similar cost improvement as desalination has. If an electrically-driven, high exergetic efficiency dehumidification system were developed (such as the membrane-based dehumidification systems proposed in literature), it would use a low cost exergy source with a high exergetic efficiency and could potentially lower the cost of dehumidification in the way that RO has done for desalination. Finally, we apply our framework to various fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, gasoline, etc.) and energy systems across different sectors (desalination, dehumidification, vehicles, etc.) to understand the variation in the cost of exergy input and exergetic efficiency of different systems and technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗